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Inside features
Evolution or intelligent design? Football has become a dynamic battle between the game’s coaches and its guardians, writes DR JODI RICHARDSON.
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HE year is 2032, you’re at the MCG waiting for the siren to begin the opening game of the season, Collingwood vs Geelong. While you’re waiting, you drift off and reminisce about “the good old days”, way back in 2011, when Geelong last beat Collingwood … 20 years ago. You can’t help but reflect on when there were 36 players on the field and players wore nothing but the uniform on their back (and maybe a GPS unit). The siren sounds and you’re brought back to reality to see the 16 starters for each team, their jerseys identifying them by number and position so the umpires can be sure they stay within their respective zones of the field. They wear leg padding, shoulder pads and headgear, a scene reminiscent of an NFL game, not the AFL you once knew and loved. OK, scenario over. It sounds farfetched but what I’ve described could be the reality in our lifetimes. (Well, perhaps not the Pies unbeaten versus the Cats.) These ideas were suggested by Professor Kevin Norton, a highly respected Professor of Exercise Science from the University of South Australia and co-author of the heavily quoted journal article The Evolution of Australian Football, published in 1999. “The question of how the game will continue to evolve over the next decade is always a controversial one,” Norton said last week. “In the future there will inevitably be rules introduced to protect the players as best we can without dramatic changes to how the game ‘looks’. These will occur in small increments to control safety and the integrity of the competitive collision-based sport we know as Australian football. “If we could look into the future, say in 20-30 years time, the game might look a lot different. There is likely to be the need for more player protection in terms of shoulder and leg padding, and perhaps soft headgear. “I think there will be the need to either reduce the number of players on the field to perhaps 17 or even 16 a side or restrict the zones that some players can move into. This is to prevent the issue of higher and higher player density causing congestion that makes a game more like a rolling scrum in rugby or where two, three and four ball-ups occur in a row because sides are so good at defensive pressure. “Of course we would notice such a radical change if introduced tomorrow but these things will probably be trialed and then slowly introduced over the
next couple of decades, possibly sooner.” Although the game has been around for more than a century, comprehensive research tracking the state of the game in terms of game speed, player movement and player mass and height began relatively recently, when Norton began this important research in the 1990s. In their AFL evolution research, Professor Norton and his colleagues set out to answer a range of questions around game structure, speed and specific events such as marks, free kicks and play-on scenarios. Norton compared four games, one from each decade between the 60s and the 90s. He found that game speed doubled between 1961 and 1997. He also found that stoppages by 1997 were more frequent and longer, and that periods of actual play had significantly reduced. Game tempo had increased along with player height and SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST: Players today face twice the “density” of just a decade ago. mass and Norton correctly predicted that these were likely determinants of increased incidence of injury. – Prof. Norton Fast forward to 2012 and Professor Norton sees more change evident in the AFL, allowed for a set shot increasing slightly, was less than would when limiting the run-up of ruckmen particularly changed patterns at goal. otherwise have been predicted based on at centre bounces immediately reduced NORTON: Influence. of play. Such changes created the patterns from previous years. posterior cruciate ligament injuries. “The last decade or so has seen more continuous play, “So it is a delicate balance of game The new sub rule introduced for the some very significant changes,” he said. which is appealing to spectators and had speed, player safety, skill execution and 2011 season is largely credited for some “The patterns of change have also been the secondary effect of slowing down entertainment as a spectacle in the face changes seen in the latest injury report. recorded in other field sports such as game speed due to player fatigue. of fitter, bigger, stronger players year Hamstring injuries were reported at soccer and rugby. This is because some Reduced game speed is appealing after year, supervised by creative and a historical low; leg muscle strains and general patterns of play are more likely on the basis of injury prevention but innovative coaches that results in the groin injuries also reduced. Additionally, to be successful than others. Professor Norton explains that to coungame we see.” GPS data revealed that average player “Creating very high player density teract this slowing of the game, coaches Matthew Finnis, CEO of the AFL speed was reduced in 2011, as was the around a player with the ball, for exambegan to really step up the use of the Players Association, believes that the time players spent at top speed. ple, forces errors because of a lack of interchange bench. more fundamental changes to football Regardless of why they are implementtime and space and the need for quick In 2007, the average number of intercome through coaching rather than rule ed, there’s no doubt that rule changes decision-making and skill execution. changes was 58; this had doubled to 117 changes. inspire negative comment. Widespread “This is precisely what we have found by 2010. “In the last 10 years there has been criticism of the “two and two” sub rule as players become better at defending Taking the honour for most rotations an explosion in the level of coaching trialed in this year’s NAB Cup is eviand forcing turnovers or neutral ball. ever was the Bulldogs in 2010 with 157 and analysis within the game. There are dence of this. “Player density is about twice as much in Round 18. now over 150 coaches employed by AFL “I don’t think the laws committee can today as it was a decade ago. On the “More rotations led to faster player clubs when several years ago it was half have a brake applied to them to say we other hand, teams with the ball try to speeds measured using GPS, and has that amount,” Finnis said. ought not to change rules,” Finnis said. create space and ‘spread’ as rapidly as also been associated with more injuries “With that growth comes a whole lot “They have a responsibility to adapt to possible in most circumstances. reported by the AFL Medical Officers’ more analysis of the game and the stratthe changing nature of the game but one “Forward speed is therefore essential reports,” Professor Norton said. egy around which the game is played. of the things I think is important is that and, again, we find a relentless drive for “The exact reasons are not known but Often that puts great pressure on the we do allow the impact of changes to be fast ball speed, especially in transition we have also seen a very rapid increase laws of the game.” considered in both their intended and periods following a turnover or break in tackles and, more recently, in conThe annual AFL Injury Report for the unintended consequences over a period from a stoppage.” tested ball. 2011 season reports a parallel long-term of time. Professor Norton’s 1999 research “Overall, the high interchange strategy upward trend in the numbers of tackles “The cause of some of the angst in found that periods of play were becomcounteracted the other measures to try per team per game and an increased recent times has been the trial of the ‘two ing shorter, and stoppages getting longer. to slow the speed down and so, in the incidence of shoulder injuries. and two’ rule in the NAB Cup, not that To combat this and maintain more interest of player welfare, we saw the If this trend continues, we may well see the NAB Cup is the wrong place to trial continuous play, the AFL introduced change in the interchange rules in 2011. rule changes around tackling high on it, as I strongly believe it is, but we need rule changes including the quick kick“The total number of interchanges levthe agenda of the laws committee. to consider the impact of the ‘three and in, reduced time taken for bounces eled off in 2011 for the first time in a Rule changes where injury is conone’ rule on its own before there is any and throw-ins, and a reduction in time decade. Game speed in 2011, while still cerned can be very effective, as in 2005 variation made to it.”
‘More rotations led to faster player speeds measured using GPS.’
Inside Football
Wednesday, March 14, 2012