Dear Agents,
As part of our ongoing e orts to provide you with relevant and important market information, please find an update from Knight Frank.
Millionaires on the move
More millionaires will likely relocate this year than ever.
The drivers vary. Changes in economic conditions, tax incentives, visa options, and lifestyle improvements all play a role, as do new hybrid working models and a rise in early or semi-retirement among those in their fifties. Investment migration consultancy Henley & Partners reckons millionaire relocations will hit 128,000 by the end of December, up from a record 120,000 last year.
London's most a luent are a point of focus, given the Labour government's tax proposals, but this is a global trend. This generation of wealthy individuals is both better connected, and more mobile, than any that has come before it (see p.18 of The Wealth Report 2024 for more).
Where and why
Douglas Elliman and Knight Frank have surveyed more than 700 high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) across 11 countries to determine where and why people plan to move. You can read the findings in our new European Lifestyle Report.
The results, where possible, are segmented by gender and generation, o ering a unique glimpse into the motivations, preferences, and attitudes of the global wealthy towards Europe’s top cities and resort destinations. Some responses might surprise you - HNWIs rank security, privacy and employment as more important than taxation as a motive for relocating, for example.
Tax is, however, particularly important for Generation X, Boomers II (60 - 69 years), and Post-War generations, especially those nearing retirement. Millennials and Gen Z prioritize employment and education more highly. Factors like climate, leisure, and visas rank lower overall. Paris tops the list of cities, followed by Berlin, Barcelona, Vienna, and Madrid, each o ering unique cultural, economic, and lifestyle benefits that appeal to a luent movers. Among resorts, Verbier in Switzerland is the leading choice, known for its luxury alpine living. Monaco, with its glamorous Mediterranean lifestyle, is also highly favored
There is much more in the report, linked above.
Stagnation
The UK economy stagnated again in July, having posted no growth in June, the ONS reported this morning. This comes after separate ONS figures this week showed pay growth cooled to a two-and-a-half-year low during the three months to July.
Both sets of figures suggest that the Bank of England will cut the base rate again before the year is out, but economists expect that to come in November rather than the meeting next week.
No change in the outlook is good for borrowers. Most major mortgage lenders have cut rates during the past ten days. NatWest is now o ering a five-year rate at 3.71% at 60% LTV - that comes with a £1,495 fee. The last time cheaper rates were
on o er was in early September 2022, before the mini-budget.
Viability
Barratt Developments has formed a joint venture with Homes England and Lloyds Banking Group to focus on the master development of large sites spanning 1,000 to more than 10,000 homes.
The venture, named MADE Partnership, has combined equity funding of up to £150 million. Combining Homes England's land assembly powers with the funding and expertise on o er at Barratt and Lloyds could be a potent mix. Unlocking large sites will be vital if Labour is to meet its ambitious housebuilding goals.
Many of these large sites stall on viability grounds. Labour is trying to address viability obstacles via policy - the consultation on reforms to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and other changes to the planning system is due to close later this month. Key among these proposals was a plan to use "benchmark land values" to cap the amount of profit that landowners can accrue when they sell up.
Charlie Dugdale, Head of Development Partnerships at Knight Frank, analyzed that plan in detail yesterday. You can read it here.
In other news...
Capital gains tax speculation boosts supply in prime central London (Knight Frank), upwards pressure on rents in prime London may return if more landlords sell (Knight Frank), Rightmove rejects £5.6bn o er from Murdoch’s REA (FT), and finally, US CPI to show another muted rise (Bloomberg).
Any questions, please reach out to me, or the team.
