The heat is (finally) arriving in Kamloops THE WEEKEND LOOKS WONDERFUL AFTER A COLD START TO SPRING

DAVE EAGLES STAFF REPORTER dave_eagles@kamloopsthisweek.com

This weekend will see the arrival of the warmest temperatures of the year, readings that may set records if the forecast is accurate.

Environment Canada is calling for the mercury to rise to 27 C on Friday, April 28, followed by 28 C on Saturday and 26 C on Sunday before cooling to the low 20s on Monday.

After weeks of belowseasonal temperatures across the Kamloops region, this will be the first significant stretch of above-seasonal temperatures since January.

“The warming we’re seeing towards the end of the week and into the weekend is definitely above normal, even for spring temperatures,” Environment and Climate Change Canada meteorologist Derek Lee told KTW , noting the pending period of warmth is going to be “quite anomalous.”

The weather pattern will shift again next week as cooler temperatures are expected to return.

“That’s not to say it’s going to be below normal, but it definitely won’t be 30 degrees every day going ahead,” Lee said.

In the month of May, Lee said there is an above-normal trend for warmer temperatures for all of the province.

With the effects of La Niña ending in March, Lee said we are in a neutral state, a transition period before El Niño returns.

Lee said with a “probability of 62 per cent,” the chance of El Niño returning gets higher and higher and could arrive as early as June.

While Environment Canada is predicting a high of 28 C on Saturday, the Weather Network is calling for a peak of 30 C.

In the days leading up to the deadly heat dome of late June 2021, the Weather Network was more accurate than Environment Canada in forecasting the temperatures. Kamloops set an all-time heat record in June 29, 2021, with a temperature of 47.3 C.

Lee conceded the heat dome was “maybe a little bit underforecast for some places.”

“Moving ahead, we’re very alert on major heat events because it’s turned into such a big response from all over the province,” he said.

Generally, Lee said, weather modelling works by looking at current conditions.

“If the current conditions are right and correct now, then the model will likely be better and correct in the next few days,” he said.

“If the model is wrong right now, we can intervene and change things as we go along, even if we’re looking at five days, because whatever happens now is very important to what happens in the five-day [forecast].”

Lee said the United Kingdom, United States and all of Europe each have their own system of weather modelling.

The Canadian model uses both regional deterministic prediction system and global deterministic prediction system displayed in three different resolutions.

Lee said the benefit of the Canadian model is that it has “much higher resolution than the other weather models out there.”

Lee said Environment Canada can do post-processing, adding one or more scientific software processes that capture the output from a numerical weather prediction system to enhance its value.

Lee said most other weather models lack this feature, which he said is especially useful for seven-day forecast weather modelling. Essentially, it allows for intervention to create more accurate weather data.

For example, it can take into account prevailing wind patterns at a particular location, such as a valley, and analyze historical weather data.