Centerspread 18 Profile

BY ANNA OLP

Design Executive and Photography Executive

When discussing the topic of climate change, two common issues that come up are usually melting ice caps or rising sea levels. In the Midwest, we don’t have glaciers retreating or coastal towns that have to worry about their elevation, so why should we care? These effects of climate change are not things we are going to see within our local communities.

As easy as it would be to not have to worry about climate change here in the Midwest, unfortunately just like the rest of the world, we will not be immune to its effects. Some of the regional impacts we will feel in the Midwest include global surface temperatures continuing to increase, weather conditions developing more variability, storms becoming more damaging and agricultural conditions worsening.

Dr. Walker Ashley is a certified consulting meteorologist and professor at Northern Illinois University with a research emphasis in meteorology, climatology and disasters. Ashley is an atmospheric scientist and disaster geographer with an interest in extreme weather and societal impacts.

“When we talk about climate change, a lot of our future is based on models we project into the future. We set the models with more moisture and more heat to simulate a warming environment. We do the same on a historical basis too because we want to make sure the models capture history, because if they can’t capture history they can’t say anything about the future,” Ashley said. These figures and predictions are not easily calculated by just anyone. Dr. Ashley works with computers and

technology far more complicated than what you can find in a home computer. As improvements are made to the process of identifying and researching effects of climate change, the credibility of the results are better now than ever.

“We are always updating our knowledge, and we are always running new simulations with better physics and better resolution. These require massive computers; it’s not something that you can run on your desktop. Most of our simulations are run on house-sized supercomputers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research,” Ashley said.

Living in Illinois, each of us can attest to the already variable weather conditions from day to day. In March, one day we can spend time outside enjoying 70-degree weather, and we wake up the next morning to snow on the ground.

This same variability can mean stretches of time in the summer with precipitation every day, or weeks without any rain at all. As global temperatures increase, the fluctuation in weather in the Midwest will also increase.

“Historically we know that we have some dry years like 1988 and extremely wet years like 1993. That variability is going to get wider and wider. That means that certain years we’re going to be drier than ‘88 and we’re going to be way wetter than ‘93, and within the year we are going to see greater variability seasonally,” Ashley said. Tornados and hail may also increase because of elevated temperatures and moisture levels in the atmosphere due to climate change. Aside from the direct damages these may cause, the differences the Midwest region will see in our weather events will also have massive implications for agriculture.

The Midwest is a very important area in the country when it comes to agriculture. In Illinois alone, agriculture generates more than $19 billion annually according to the Illinois Department of Agriculture. The effects of climate change could jeopardize growing seasons for many farmers.

According to the USDA, changes in climate and extreme weather have already occurred and are increasing challenges for agriculture nationally and globally. Many of the impacts are expected to continue or intensify in the future. Over the past century, temperatures have risen across all seasons, growing seasons have become longer, precipitation patterns have changed and extreme precipitation events have increased in frequency and severity.

The impacts climate change will have on agriculture are unfortunately some that will hit very close to home. Brooke Heinsohn is a science and agriculture teacher at KHS and a member of the Kaneland community whose family has their own farm.

The timing of sowing, raising and harvesting crops where we live in Illinois is reliant on rain. Most of the water that the crops get comes from rain, not irrigation. Changes in weather patterns can delay a planting season or even force farmers to change the seeds they use.

“Most crops are designed to grow for a specific period of time before they are ready to be harvested. There is usually a set number of how many days of sunlight it needs in order to be ready by a certain time. Sometimes farmers will have to change the seeds that they ordered to a shorter day-length crop so it can be ready in time. That also means that the seed companies have to be ready to pivot,” Heinsohn said.

As agriculture is such a big part of our economy in the Midwest, negative impacts on agriculture will also be felt in many other ways.

“Precipitation can have huge ramifications for the Midwest because we are the corn belt and breadbasket of the world. As precipitation changes in the Midwest, so does our agricultural productivity,” Ashely said. “If we don’t have rain, food prices go up and yields go down. That has an impact on us when we’re going to buy bread, but more importantly most of our crop is shipped around the world.”

Food shortages are something that we can observe right now. First due to COVID-19 and now the crisis in Ukraine, the blockages being felt in shipping routes have contributed to shortages all over the world. Most of us can survive if Starbucks is out of our favorite drinks, but what about when grocery stores aren’t able to stock their produce shelves? And, what happens when we are unable to fulfill shipping or trade agreements with other countries?

“One of the things that can create war, strife and mass migrations is food shortage. Luckily we live in a very prosperous and resilient area, and our resources will be the backstop for this country. It is the other parts of the world that don’t have a backstop,” Ashley said.

Our current experience with food shortages is a small example of the potential effects of climate change in the Midwest. For many, it may be a look into the future if we don’t recognize the reality and the threat of climate change.

“It is hard for every generation to realize that something that might have an impact in 10, 20 or 30 years is something we need to start thinking about now. A lot of people focus on what they’re putting on the table tonight or what they’re going to wear. The problem with climate change is that it’s a policy issue where we actually have the solutions now, and we know what we need to do, but it requires forethought, leadership and individual constituents that can look beyond next week,” Ashley said.