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PAGE

ISH

SPECIAL TO THE NATION

The ejfects oflow-skill immigration on emplo~n. Thailand OIlAKA lATHAPIPAT

There is widespread belief in Thailand that low-skilled migrant workers take away the jobs and depress the wages oflocal workers because they are willing to accept less pay for the same work. Evidence ofthis belief is shown in an opinion survey conducted in late 2010 by the International Labour Organisation (IW) 1iiangle Project on public attitudes towards migration and migrant workers. The survey found an alarming 89 per cent ofthe respon dents agreeing that "Government policies to admit migrants should be more restrictive," and only 40 per cent believing that migrant workers make a nP.t contribution to the economy. An earlier study in 2006 conducted by Assumption University commissiont!d by IW/United Nations Development Fund for Women (UNIFEM) found most respondents did not believe that Thailand needs migrant work ers to sustain its industrial and agricultur~l economy. Do facts on the ground support these perceptions? Recent empiri cal evidence show them to be mis perceptions. Opposition to the presence ofmigrant workers was likely fuelled by concern over the sharp increase in the number of migrant workers, which nearly doubled from 2004 to 2007. As of 2007, immigrants represehted around 5 per cent ofthe country's workforce of36 million. Most of them come from the Greater Mekong sub-region. with some 75 per cent from Burma and 12 per cent each from Cambodia and Laos. They are largely young and low-skilled, around.three quarters ofwhom are unregistered or undocumented. . The presence ofan increasing ~umber ofmigrant workers - doc umented or undocumented - in key industries like construction, agri culture and fisheries indicate either

a shortage ofsuch workers locally, or cheaper foreign labour, or both. It also suggests that migrant work ers benefit these industries and the economy on the whole. Martin (2007) and more recently Pholphirul, Rukumnuaykitand Kamlai (2010) estimate the contri bution ofmigrant workers to Thailand's real GOP to be in the range of 0.75 to 1.25 per cent per annum. Given that the migrant workers constitute only 5 per cent ofthe countt:y's workforce; their disproportionately low contribu tion to GOP reflects their lopsided presence in low-productivity industries. It is common knowledge that the Thai economy is characterised by the coexistence ofa capital intensive formal sector and a large labour-intensive informal sector, which employs mostly low-skilled and temporary workers who are paid lower wages without fringe benefits orjob security. The rapid increase in educational attainment ofthe Thai labour force means that younger Thais are turuing away from the so-called "3D" jobs (dirty, dangerous and demeaning). The growing void has been filled by for-. eign workers, most ofwhom have less than a lower primary education (fewer than four years of formal schooling). From my recent estimate, the surge of migrants over the three year period from 2004 to 2007 contributed only around 0.07 per centage point to the unemployment· rate of 0.66 per cent observed in 2907 among the primary and less educatedlabourgroup.Puttingn in another way, had the proportion of migrant labour remained at the 2005 level of 2.86 per cent, the . unemployment rate for the group would likely have been at 0.59 per cent in 2007. Evidence thus shows . that the migrants had minimal impact on the loss ofjobs among the least-skilled native workers. Indeed, despite the large num

ber c;>f migrant workers present, the Thai labour market continued to tighten, with the unemployment rate for the least-skilled workers ~rther declining to 0.35 per cent m 2010. The aggregate unemploy ment rate also reached a low of0.9 per cent. There has been a clear tightening ofthe labour market among the lower skilled, where large increases in hourly wages for workers at the bottom end ofthe wage percentile were observed over the period from 2007 to 2010. It is al~o clear that the availability of mIgraut workers has given the Jow productivity industries more time to adopt labo11r-saving technolo 'gies in production or to relocate altogether. To find out the impact ofimmi gration on the Thai wage structure I simulated a 100-per-cent ' increase in the share of migrant workers in the labour force to mimic actual inflows observed from 2001 to 2007. Consistent with other previous studies, I find a small negative impact of 0.69 per cent on the average wages ofnative workers with at most a primary education. By comparison, the w~g~ ~ ofnew migrants on exIstmg migrant workers is much larger (-2.04 per cent). However. because oftheir complementaritY

in production, the inflow of low skilled immigrants are found to raise productivity, and hence aver age hourly wages ofnative workers with a high school and a college educati~n by 0.56 and 0.57 per cent respectively. Due to the larger share (57.5 per . cent) of high school- and college educated workers in the Thai . labour force and the higher wages commanded relative to the less educated groups, it is clear that there is a net gain in native wages from immigtation. In short, recent empirical evi dence shows that the low-skilled immigrants employed by industries

:i:COntribpte to the Thai economy. ,Labour intensive industries have become increasingly dependent on migrant workers as a new genera., tion ofThais constantly move up the skills ladder to take an better paying jobs. While the migrant workers may cause some loss ofemployment among the least skilled Thai work ers, the tightening labour market at the low end of the skill distribution acts to keep these to a minimum. Also, the complementarity effects offoreign workers on the labour productivity ofour high school and college workforce far outweigh any adverse effects on the wages ofour own low-skilled workers.

REFERENCES

Bryant, J. and Rukumnuaykit,P. (2007): "Labour migration in the greater Mekong sub-region: Does' In-migration to Thailand Reduce the Wages of'fhai Workers? ,It The World Bank, Bangkok Kulkolkarn. K. and Potipiti, T.

(2007): "Migr8.tion, wages and unemployment in Thailand", Chulalongkorn Journal of Economics, 19(1): 1-22. " Latbapipat, D. (2010): "The Effects ofImmigration on the Thai Wage Structure", Thailand Development Research Institute, Bangkok. Martin, P. (2007): "The Contrihntion of Migrants Workers to Thailand: Towards Policy Development", ILO, Bangkok. Pholphirul, P.; Rukumnuaykit, P. and Kamlai, J. (2010) "Do immi grants .improve Thailand's compet itiveness", paper presented at the World Bank and IPS Conference on Cross-Border Labour Mobility and Development in the East Asia and Pacific Region, 1-2 June 2010, Singapore.

Dilaka LBthapipat, PhD Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) e-mail dilaka@tdri.or.th

LABOUR MARKET TRENDS Labour Migration into Thailand. 1996-2007

2.000.000 • Total 1,800,000 -.• Unregistered - - - - - - - - - 1.600,000 - - Registered

1.400,000 - - - - - - - - - - . 1 ' - - 1.200,000 - - - - - - - - - - - 1 - - . . , . : ; : .

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