6th Kyiv Security Forum by Kateryna Korobovtseva

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

a platform for European security architecture

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

DIGEST SECURITY IN AN INSECURE WORLD

Kyiv, April 18-19, 2013 6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

The opinions expressed in this summary report do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Open Ukraine Foundation or its partners and donor organizations. The speakers’ reported remarks have been edited for clarity and may differ slightly from what was actually delivered.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CONTENT Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Forum Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Expert Focus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Day I Introductory Session I Keys to Security in the Black Sea Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Summary Paper. Dr Owen Greene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Debates Natural Resources and the Future – Confrontation or Cooperation? . . . . . . . . . 27 Introductory Session II Energy security: Game of the States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Summary Paper. Mykhaylo Honchar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Day I. Summary Paper. Andriy Veselovsky . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Day II Plenary Session I Be Prepared for Tomorrow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Summary Paper. Mykola Kapitonenko . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Country Case Study Ukraine: What’s Next? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Summary Paper. Jim Greene. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Plenary Session II Europe: for Whom the Bell Tolls? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Summary Paper. Mykola Kapitonenko . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 Parallel Session A Freedom of Media – Making People Secure? . . . . . . . . . 91 Summary Paper. Sergiy Sydorenko . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Parallel Session B Cyber Revolution: Egalite, Liberte, Faternite? . . . . . . . . 102 Summary Paper. Ihor Malchenyuk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Recommendations for Ukraine. James Sherr . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Youth Focus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 Media Focus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Arseniy Yatsenyuk Open Ukraine Foundation would like to sincerely thank all the institutions and individuals, who contributed to the success of the 6th Kyiv Security Forum. We would like to express our appreciation to the partner of the 6th Kyiv Security Forum – Chatham House (United Kingdom) – for its support and cooperation. We would like also to express our deep gratitude to our financial partners: -

Victor Pinchuk Foundation, an international, private, non-partisan, philanthropic foundation based in Ukraine – for its key financial support,

The Black Sea Trust for Regional Cooperation, which is a project of the German Marshall Fund of the United States of America – for its financial support and the many years of fruitful cooperation in organizing Kyiv Security Forums,

NATO Information and Documentation Centre in Ukraine – for its support of the Kyiv Security Forum project and its youth initiatives.

We would like also to acknowledge gratefully the valuable deliberations and comments of our moderator David Eades, as well as all the speakers and participants in this event. We are furthermore extending our gratitude to our media partners – the Ukrainian newspapers and magazines: “Kommersant”, “Expert”, “Day”, “KyivPost”, to our radio and Internet partners: “Korrespondent.net”, and “Radio Liberty”, to our TV partner – “Faktor Bezpeky”, and the news agencies – “Interfax“ and “Nagolos” – for their information and media support. We are very grateful to Efrem Lukatskyy for presenting his photo exhibition “Moments of time” during the 6th Kyiv Security Forum. We also would like to recognize the support of: Fairmont Grand Hotel Kyiv

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

INTRODUCTION Dear Friends, I have the honor and pleasure to present to you the digest of the 6th Kyiv Security Forum. It has been designed as the Agora of our times, as that place where the drive for building a global security architecture would gather together seriously interested intellectuals, politicians, diplomats, journalists, public leaders, and artists. This would be the place where the repugnance of correct, but meaningless and obvious trivialities would unconditionally fade away in the face of deliberate thought developed in terms of our mutual responsibilities with global dimensions. It is my sincere hope that this is exactly, what has resulted from our efforts. We have broken with ancient understandings of security, which are not separated from applications of force and intimidation by the state against its own people, and we talk now about security in terms of the twenty-first century, about a security, which is based on freedom, human dignity, and the golden rule of the world’s great religions: do unto others as you would have them do unto you. All of our six Forums have hosted discussions on the most relevant, and yet uncomfortable topics. However, for the benefit of Forum participants, these discussions have neither compromised, nor hidden the ideas, which form the principal foundations of human society, the very principles, on which society can, and even should be, built in the future. Ukraine will play its own part in building such a principled world – one that is safe and just. It will participate in it directly, rather than through the dominance of foreign entities. That participation will be in the context of having full responsibility for its own actions in sharing a common European home with Western Europe, and in which Ukraine’s membership is a historical given, sharing a jointly formed civilization. Affirmation of this political and

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

INTRODUCTION legal reality is a priority task for ensuring security, not only for Ukraine, but also an important step in the development of a secure future for all of Europe. The immediate necessity of signing the Association Agreement between Kyiv and Brussels is axiomatic. The same is the fact that the European Union is not primarily a geographic entity, but more certainly and foundationally, a shared philosophy of values. Corruption, selective justice, and the neglect of human rights and fundamental freedoms, have no place, and never will, within this community of jointly held democratic values. To overcome this discordance of values between modern Europe and present-day Ukraine is a matter of honor for everyone, who desires to see Ukraine as a successful and safe country, a country where you yourself would want to live, and which could be passed on to future generations without shame. It has been a long time since security ceased being limited to political divisions and battlefields, for now security threats go far beyond areas of military power. The participants of this past Forum seriously focused on the problems of cyber crime, and more widely on the consequences of what takes place in the virtual world of the Internet for its security. Moreover, it may be the first time that the roles of journalism and freedom of speech in achieving a reliable and sustainable security were analyzed seriously and comprehensively. Likewise, for the first time a youth section was a part of the Forum, and was called on to shape a new generation of experts, who are able to think within a clear framework to face new challenges and threats. Finally, for the first time the Forum’s participants had a chance to look at security problems through the lenses of art. The exhibition of the brilliant art photographer Yefrem Lukatsky sharply set before us the problem of being “a small human being” in the epicenter of large conflict. I am sure that the heated debates that were held during the Forum’s sessions, and the expressed ideas, sometimes paradoxical, sometimes unexpected, will be reformed into political decisions and will, and diplomatic documents, and I am further confident that the thoughts and words of the Forum’s participants will be transformed into an energy of actions, which will result in our world becoming more secure, better for all. Arseniy Yatsenyuk Founder of Open Ukraine Foundation, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine ( 2007), Head of “Batkivshchyna” Faction in Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

FORUM AGENDA Thursday, April 18 Ballroom, Fairmont Grand Hotel Kyiv Moderator: David EADES, Journalist and Newsreader, BBC News, Great Britain 13:00-14:00

Registration

14:00-14:30

Opening address: Аrseniy YATSENYUK, Founder of the Open Ukraine Foundation, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (2007), Leader of the Faction “Batkivshchyna” at Parliament of Ukraine Ana AELENEI, Black Sea Trust Project Coordinator, German Marshall Fund James SHERR, Associate Fellow, Chatham House, Great Britain

14:30-16:00

Introductory Session І KEYS TO SECURITY OF THE BLACK SEA REGION

• Frozen conflicts: no losers – no resolution? • Economic wars with political flavor – regional know-how? • Cooperation schemes: a glance into the future. • Ukraine – paving the path to regional leadership? Special address: “Struggle for the region: who are the fighters?” Giorgi BARAMIDZE, Deputy Chairman, Parliament of Georgia; Vice - Prime Minister of Georgia (2004-2012) Speakers: Claus NEUKIRCH, Deputy Director for Operations Service, OSCE Conflict Prevention Center, Austria Leonidas CHRYSANTHOPOULOS, Secretary General, Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (2006-2012), Greece Оleksandr CHALYI, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine Comments: Borys KUZNETSOV, The Center for International and Regional Policy, Russian Federation 15:30-16:00

Discussion

16:00-16:30

Coffee – break

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

FORUM AGENDA 16:30-17:00

Debates NATURAL RESOURCES AND THE FUTURE – CONFRONTATION OR COOPERATION?

• The struggle for use of the world’s natural resources. Will it intensify in the coming years?

• Is it possible to avert the future conflicts and how? Speakers: Owen GREENE, Chair of Management Board; the Centre for International Cooperation and Security, University of Bradford, Great Britain John BOND, Coordinator, Swiss Caux Forum for Human Security, Australia 17:00-18:30

Introductory Session II ЕNERGY SECURITY: GAME OF THE STATES

• Emerging Global Energy Strategies. • New player in? Shale gas. • Ecology vs energy resources: a price to pay? • Ukraine: surrounded with the bypasses and high prices. Speakers: Yuriy BOYKO, Vice – Prime – Minister of Ukraine H.E. John F. TEFFT, Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador of USA to Ukraine Frank UMBACH, Associate Director of the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) Graham TILEY, Head of the Shell Office in Ukraine Piotr WOZNIAK, Undersecretary of State, Ministry of Environment, Poland Comments: Grzegorz PYTEL, Energy Expert, Sobieski Institute, Poland 18:00-18:30

Discussion

19:00-22:00

Opening Dinner (by special invitation) Atrium

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

Friday, April 19 Ballroom Moderator: David EADES, Journalist and Newsreader, BBC News, Great Britain 8:30-9:30 9:30-9:45 9:45-11:30

Registration Welcoming address: Jan TOMBINSKI, Head, Delegation of the European Union to Ukraine Plenary Session I BE PREPARED FOR TOMORROW The world is not the same. Emerging security threats. Financial Crises: America is recovering, Europe is sinking, and China is rising? Middle East: mirror of the global threats? Modern security dilemma: state vs individual. Speakers: Аrseniy YATSENYUK, Founder of the Open Ukraine Foundation, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (2007), Head of “Batkivshchyna” Parliamentary Faction, Parliament of Ukraine Rasa JUKNEVICIENE, Member of Parliament, Minister of Defense of Lithuania (2008-2012) Аriel COHEN, Senior Fellow, Heritage Foundation, Member of Council on Foreign Policy issues, USA Yasar YAKIS, Member of Parliament of Turkey, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey (2002-2003) Bogdan KLICH, Member of Parliament of Poland, Minister of Defense of Poland (2007-2011) Comments: Еkuru AUKOT, Director of the Committee of Experts of Development of Constitution of Kenya

• • • •

10:30-11:30

Discussion

11:30-12:00

Coffee – break

12:00-13:30

Country Case Study. UKRAINE. WHAT’S NEXT? Ukraine – a human friendly country? EU: never cease to warn? First Aid Kit for good governance. East or West? Home is…? Speakers: Susan CORKE, Director for Eurasia Programs, Freedom House, USA Jacek SARYUSZ-WOLSKI, Vice-President of the European People’s party

• • • •

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

FORUM AGENDA Petro POROSHENKO, Member of Parliament of Ukraine, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (2009-2010), Minister of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine (2012) Steven PIFER, Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution, U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine (1998-2000) Hryhoriy NEMYRIA, Chairman of the Committee on European Integration of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Comments: Pawel-Robert KOWAL, Member of European Parliament, Poland 13:00-13:30

Discussion

13:45-14:40

Press Conference

13:30-14:45

Lunch Atrium

14:45-16:15

Plenary Session II EUROPE: FOR WHOM THE BELL TOLLS? Financial Crises: is future beyond the mist? Migration and social problems challenging EU identity. EU: GB in or out? EU neighborhood – chance to be just CLOSE TO or to be IN? Speakers: Michael EMERSON, Associate Senior Research Fellow, Center of European Policy Studies, Belgium Anna FOTYGA, Member of Polish Parliament, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland (2006-2007) Vivien PERTUSOT, Head of Brussels office, French Institute of International Relations Petr MARES, Special Envoy for Eastern Partnership, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Czech Republic

• • • •

Comments: Аndrew WILSON, Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations Lord RISBY, Chairman, British Ukrainian Society, Great Britain 15:45-16:15

Discussion

16:15-16:30

Coffee – break

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

16:30-18:00

Parallel Session A: FREEDOM OF MEDIA – MAKING PEOPLE SECURE? Ballroom • Censorship: new generation media vs traditional. • How does it work. Free media – driving force for changes? • Journalists and diplomats: free media and security. • Independent journalism. Survival Guide. • Ukraine: Information wants to be free?

Speakers: John KAMPFNER, International Journalist, writer, Google Adviser on censorship and culture of expression, Great Britain Anabel HERNANDEZ, Mexican Journalist, Winner of “Golden Feather of Freedom” Markku MANTILA, Editor-in-Chief of the Kavela newspaper, Winner of the Finnish Grand Prize for Journalism Vitaliy PORTNIKOV, President, TVi Channel, Ukraine

Discussion

Parallel Session B. CYBER REVOLUTION: EGALITE, LIBERTE, FATERNITE? “Kyiv-1” Conference room • Growing importance of cyber security: are we ready to face the future? • State, business, society = teamwork? • Social Networks: life under the microscope. Global reality show. • Virtuality effecting the reality: USMexico case study. • Cyber security on the EU agenda. Moderator: Ihor MALCHENYUK, Cyber Security Expert, Ukraine Speakers: Jim REAVIS, Director of Cloud Security Alliance, USA Vinayak GODSE, Director, Data Security Council of India, India Ilias CHANTZOS, Senior Director on Government Affairs Europe, Middle East & Africa and Asia Pacific & Japan Regions, Symantec Corporation, Belgium Raúl BENITEZ-MANAUT, President, NGO “Colectivo de Análisis de la Seguridad con Democracia”, Меxico Video-address: Marietje SCHAAKE, Member of European Parliament, Member of Board of European Internet Foundation Discussion

16:30-18:00

Task - Force Meeting CREATING SECURITY STRATEGY FOR UKRAINE “Karpaty” Conference Room Moderator: James SHERR, Associate Fellow, Chatham House, Great Britain

18:00-18:15

Concluding remarks

18:15-20:00

Dinner Atrium

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS INTRODUCTORY SESSION I. KEYS TO SECURITY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION • • • • •

Frozen conflicts: no losers – no resolution? Economic wars with political flavor – regional know-how? Cooperation schemes: a glance into the future. Ukraine – paving the path to regional leadership? Struggle for the region: who are the fighters?

WE ARE FUNDAMENTALLY EUROPEAN NATIONS Practically everyone in this region – whether we call it the Black Sea or the Eastern Region – thinks about the European Union. We are each fundamentally European nations and therefore solutions for security issues require European perspectives for these regional countries. I hope that this year’s Vilnius Summit will see the successful inauguration of the Eastern policy of Giorgi BARAMIDZE every country representing this region. I Deputy Chairman hope Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova will of the Parliament, all be on board along with other involved Vice-Prime-Minister of Georgia countries, and that hopefully Armenia (2004-2012) will be joining the EU. Also, Turkey will finally achieve the very important goal of becoming a full-fledged member of the family of free and democratic nations. This is important not only for Turkey but for the European Union as well. As for Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, and Ukraine – when Russia understands that these countries are friends of Russia as free countries, not as its satellites and slaves, then I am absolutely sure it is a matter of the time when these [Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh – Edit.] regional conflicts will be finished. Georgia is a neighbor of Russia, and we want to be a good neighbor and to have fullfledged cooperation with Russia in everything, but Russia just has to understand that Georgia doesn’t want to be a small brother any more. This is the problem, and I am absolutely sure this problem will be solved sooner rather than later.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

YOU HAVE TO PREPARE SOCIETIES FOR COMPROMISE

Claus NEUKIRCH Deputy Director for Operations Service, OSCE Conflict Prevention Center (Austria)

Regarding unresolved Black Sea conflicts, we have to be very clear that it can only be through peaceful solutions, not the use of force, and that mediation is still the best way to go about reaching solutions. Mediation is the only mechanism and it has to be connected with other means and processes. First of all, building confidence – that is a very difficult step-bystep process, but it is absolutely impossible to find a solution to any of these conflicts without both sides doing this; these sides must develop trust in each other and to have a certain confidence.

It is most important that we have to look at the big picture, at the international environment and that the surrounding international actors have to be involved in the larger process of conflict resolution. There is nevertheless a grain of optimism, for in all cases you can see there are the solutions to reach […] In some cases we were very close, in some we were not close, but it means that people have also to overcome a certain kind of opposition and sometimes it means to go down the hard path and prepare societies for compromise.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

THE FUTURE OF THE BSEC WILL HAVE A POLITICAL ASPECT What is the European Union? I mean we have the European Union that is trying to save itself from collapse. I have come from Greece and my colleagues and I feel that we are under occupation. We joined the European Union as it was said as an equal member state and now we are in the front lines. The EU is going to collapse if it doesn’t change. We see what has happened to Cyprus and who is next? Slovenia? Italy? Portugal? Spain? I am speaking on the basis of what I see and on the facts that they, the EU, have admitted that they are making mistakes, but they don’t have the courage to correct these mistakes.

Leonidas CHRYSANTHOPOULOS Secretary General, Organization of Black Sea Economic Cooperation (2006-2012) (Greece)

The future of the BSEC will have a political aspect. Russia and Turkey, the main players in the area, must accept that the BSEC can become politicized and militarized. […] We can start to discuss the political issues by having a political committee, and of course, we can have military experts from the cooperating Black Sea region to help maintain harmony and other initiatives started.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

UKRAINE HAS A SPECIAL ROLE TO BE A REGIONAL BROKER The real key to security of the Black Sea region is in a positive balance of interests, the challenging but not conflicting interests of the EU, Russia, and Turkey together with non-involvement in this balance from both the United States and China.

Оleksandr CHALYI Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine

There are two very simple recommendations, strategic recommendations, on how to overcome these frozen conflicts in the Black Sea region: a possible integration between Brussels-Moscow-Ankara and a possible peaceful reconciliation between Ankara or Russia, Brussels, and between all the countries which are in conflict.

The leaders in this region are Turkey, Russia, and the EU. Ukraine has a special role to be a regional broker – a regional country, which promotes positive regional cooperation, negotiation, and a peaceful reconciliation process – this is the historical role of Ukraine in this region. I am sure that this autumn Ukraine will sign the Association Agreement with the EU and after this everybody – Turkey, Russia, the United States, and also China will treat Ukraine as a country with a free trade zone with the EU. It opens for us, and for the whole region, fantastic possibilities for deeper economic cooperation. We can practically create a non-treaty but de-facto free trade zone between Russia, Ukraine, and the EU. In essence, we will create a free trade zone from the Russian Far East to Lisbon, Portugal.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

WE HAVE WITNESSED AN IMPROVEMENT IN GEORGIANRUSSIAN RELATIONS We have witnessed an improvement in Georgian-Russian relations during the recent period of time. For the moment, these improvements are small, and unfortunately we haven’t reached a point of no return. Much must still be done. The factor which shows this improvement in bilateral relations, and which is very significant – is that the Russian Federation has gradually opened internal Russian markets to Georgian exports.

Borys KUZNETSOV The Center for International and Regional Policy (Russian Federation)

There is an ongoing development of academic and cultural contacts between the Russian Federation and Georgia, between their different political institutions and educational centers. A lack of information about each other causes a spread of disinformation within Russia and Georgia.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

SUMMARY PAPER INTRODUCTORY SESSION I. KEYS TO SECURITY OF THE BLACK SEA REGION On ‘Frozen Conflicts’ The notion that the conflicts concerning South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transnistria/ Moldova, and Nagorno-Karabakh were ‘frozen’, with ‘no losers – no resolution’, was hotly debated and disputed. It was argued that it was misleading to label these conflicts ‘frozen’, for they remain a focus for an active struggle between the key parties at several levels – from the local through to regional. Although the main configurations of the conflicts have Dr Owen GREENE been the same for almost two decades, and key ‘lines of control’ have not University of Bradford moved substantially during that time, (Great Britain) they continue to be actively contested and are liable to erupt into violence – as demonstrated by the 2008 military operations of Russia and Georgia in relation to South Ossetia. Moreover, there are certainly losers in the present situation, ranging from displaced peoples, disrupted livelihoods, daily insecurities and indignities in border areas, and missed opportunities for economic, social and political development. A better term for these four conflicts was proposed – ‘protracted conflicts’. Their protracted character implies not only that on-lookers have grown familiar with them and dubious about the prospects for their resolution, but also that layerupon-layer of grievance is gradually being laid at district and community levels – with damaging long-term consequences. Strongly differing perspectives were presented on the primary drivers of these conflicts, particularly in relation to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Some argued that they could be resolved quite quickly with a change of policy by Russia. Others argued that this was not the case, and the conflicts reflected complex disputed national and local identities and socio-economic orientations, which needed to be addressed though local level reconciliation. The important and on-going role of the OSCE in all of these conflicts was widely recognised. It is important to continue to make efforts to maintain active

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

contacts and dialogues between key stakeholders and communities at all relevant levels – particularly at the levels of local decision-makers and influential groups, and also at the human level. In contexts where communications have become highly politically limited and ritualised, and with greatly restricted movements across lines of control, the concerted efforts of OSCE missions and associated diplomatic, political and cultural initiatives have been and remain particularly important. Although they are frustrating because they have so far produced few prominent impacts, they help to sustain and build mutual confidence, prevent the layering of grievances, and to prepare the conditions for rapid progress towards conflict resolution if political opportunities arise.

On geopolitics, conflict prevention and mechanisms for co-operation The Black Sea region can benefit greatly from co-operation, but continues to be a major focus for geopolitical tensions and insecurities, and for geostrategic, power-oriented, discourses. This was reflected in the session’s discussion. Competing images of selfish geostrategic interests and struggles were portrayed as major sources of insecurity. Although the mood of the discussion was constructive, depending on the perspective, Russia, NATO, Georgia, the EU, Germany, and others were amongst those that were identified as sources of tension or conflict risk in the region, driven by mixtures of expansionist, national, economic, military, global finance, or energy interests and instruments. Each claim was strongly contested by other Forum participants In this context, the question arose whether the dominance of oversimplified types of ‘great game’ geostrategic realist discourses in some national capitals and political cultures were themselves part of the problem – generating narratives that unduly distract from opportunities for co-operation, conflict prevention and enhanced security. Several interventions sought to rebalance these perspectives and concerns. For example, illustrations were given where the Organisation of Black Sea Economic Co-operation had quietly facilitated negotiations over issues such as routes of planned Black Sea highways between Russia and Georgia which had moved them from being regarded as provocations to useful indicators of future economic trade; where the OSCE had facilitated and enabled cross line–of-control populations movements, local trade and cultural exchanges in relation to the protracted (or ‘frozen’) conflict areas, and where numerous governments in and outside the Black Sea region have explored initiatives to promote confidence and co-operation. Similar debates were raised about sensitive bilateral security concerns, such as those between Ukraine and Russia over the future of energy politics and

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS the Russian Black Sea Fleet port facilities in the Crimea. Uncertainty and the prominence of power politics continued to feed insecurity; while all highlighted the possibilities for co-operation based on mutual respect, compromise and shared interests. The Black Sea region is deeply affected by wider global political, security and economic trends; which pre-occupy several of the key powers or political groupings in the region, including Russia, Turkey, the USA and the EU. This raises risks that the complex political, security and economic issues in the region do not receive the specific and consistent international attention they need, and are sometimes subordinated to wider interests, political/diplomatic symbolism, and ultimatums. The region needs a stronger, well-founded, international reputation for local and regional co-operation and mutual confidence-building in order to attract the sort of consistent international engagement and support that it needs.

Orientation towards the European Union The issue of EU membership and associate status was a major thematic concern. Most participants argued that the EU, and particularly processes of EU enlargement and EU Association agreements with countries in and near to the Baltic Sea region, is a major factor contributing to security and stability. For example, several Ukrainian participants emphasised the importance of achieving an EU-Ukraine Association agreement this year. For some, the Euro-zone financial crises, and associated austerity programmes in Greece and elsewhere, have dented the international reputation of the EU as a driver for regional stability and solidarity – as stated by the Greek and Russian participants. However, many speakers from the Baltic Sea region countries emphasised their continuing commitment to a European vision oriented towards EU norms and institutions. The substantial and developing role of the EU in the Black Sea region is bound to remain politically controversial. It is not only a focus for political and security debates about the extent to which countries orient themselves towards integration with West European institutions, or Russia, or ‘a third way’. It is also a focus for internal debates within each country about progress on democratisation, the rule of law, human rights and economic reforms. This is in the context of uneven and fragile democratisation and reform processes in the region. Deepening association with the EU is a challenging process, requiring increasing adoption of the EU ‘acqui communitaire’, and disrupting internal

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

distributions of power and patronage. Many participants emphasised that progress towards human security and democracy is likely to bring long-term security and conflict prevention benefits. But in the short to medium term, democratisation can bring uncertainty and tension as well as stability. For the peoples of the region, the drivers and imperatives for progress on democratic institution building, rule of law, economic reform and human rights arise from the challenges they face in their everyday lives and their hopes for the future of their own society. So there can be no postponement of democratic struggles in the interests of regional stability. Instead the reverse is true: regional confidence-building and conflict prevention is a high priority not only for its own sake but also to facilitate confident and tolerant debates about domestic reforms.

Recommendations and Conclusions Building on the issues, debates and widely-supported approaches outlined above, some more specific recommendations emerge, including the following. Further invigorate and support efforts to develop and implement CSBMs (Confidence and Security Building Measures) for each of the misleadingly – called ‘frozen conflicts’ in the regions: Nagorno-Karabakh, Moldova/ Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. These measures should cover military security; policing, economic, social and cultural confidencebuilding measures of a variety of forms. The priorities are to: prevent these protracted conflicts from becoming further embedded in societal and other divisions or political economies of conflict or crime; address the needs of disrupted populations that are bearing much of the costs of the conflict; prevent any further escalation or entrenchment of these complex conflicts; and prepare the ground for future reconciliation and resolution as soon as political opportunities arise. In practice, the OSCE has provided a key focal point and institutional resource for such efforts, and all member states and stakeholders should ensure that the OSCE receives appropriate co-operation and political, expert and financial support to strengthen its roles in relation to each of these areas. Confidence-and security building is a particular priority in Russian – Georgian government relations; and also within and between the affected communities locally in the North and South Caucasus. The residue of the 2008 conflict remains bitter and damaging, and the characteristics of the ‘worst-case’ geostrategic public discourses on the issue within each country have become part of the problem. In this context, confidence-building measures that focused on the

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

participation and needs of the severely – affected local communities would be most welcome. The Organisation of Black Sea Economic Co-operation, and associated subregional and cross-border co-operation mechanisms, need to be a focus for initiative-taking at higher political and economic levels. At a time when subregional (and sub-sub-regional) organisations in other continents have been substantially reviewed and strengthened to address complex political, security, economic and societal challenges – often at the initiative of middle and small countries – it is timely to try to re-invigorate such bodies in this region. The next high-level BSEC meeting should be an important focus for such initiatives. The EU process of engagement through association agreements with countries of the Black Sea region needs to continue actively, but with stronger recognition by all stakeholders of the complex political aims and processes involved. While it is important to adopt a rigorous approach towards normative and institutional standards, and meeting commitments, priorities need above all to be established according to conflict prevention and democratic institutionbuilding needs.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS DEBATES. NATURAL RESOURCES AND THE FUTURE – CONFRONTATION OR COOPERATION? • Will the struggle for use of the world’s natural resources intensify in the coming years? • Is it possible to avert the future conflicts and how?

CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS PLAY A VERY CRITICAL ROLE IN PREVENTING CONFLICTS Again, The focus on land, water (particularly, fresh water), fishing, and forest resources is increasing. Immediately the issue becomes one of the controls by states over these resources in the context of competition and corruption within the government. Everybody is invested in agricultural land in the belief that food prices will increase in the future. These are global issues now, because the investments are global in nature. When we talk about fragile nations and the risks of war – the large issues of land and water resources are immediately apparent.

Dr Owen GREENE Chair of Management Board of the Centre for International Cooperation and Security, University of Bradford (Great Britain)

Twenty years ago, many people felt the solution to reducing clashes over national resources was to have very clear ownership of national natural resources, particularly in the hands of private ownership. Many areas of the world have shown this is not the ideal case as a quite complex partnership with government, civil society, and the community was found to be needed. Civil society groups play a very critical role in preventing conflicts, supporting resistance against the unjust exploitation of land. They have to do this through complex alliances. This is in a complex of national initiatives, where usage of international media results in international interest in the issues. Cooperation between international NGO’s and local civic NGO’s can be very effective. The civic society is very critical, but what is more critical is the dynamic linkage between international and local ownership.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

NATIONAL SECURITY DEPENDS ON HUMAN SECURITY, WHEN EVERY PERSON FEELS SECURE Regarding the theme of natural resources and confrontation or cooperation, the first answer you will have is that confrontation will exist unless cooperation is created first. We are all in the same boat, and we cannot resolve threats to our well-being such as climate change and the financial crisis John BOND unless we create mutual cooperation. Coordinator of the Swiss Caux Climate change is a major challenge to Forum for Human Security our security, as we think of the potential (Great Britain/Australia) security implications of a widespread drought forcing tens of millions or hundreds of millions of people to move. Attempts to reach an international agreement are stark at the moment but a great deal is happening here in Europe and elsewhere in areas such as developing sustainable transport, and clean energy. Civil society is taking much of leadership. If we talk a little bit more about land at the moment, we are losing 1% of global agricultural land each year to erosion and other factors. Most of that land can be restored to productivity, however. This land provides food and can reduce conflict, because if you look at these areas, it can be seen that most of the world’s conflicts are in the dry regions of the world. To increase human resources we need to put more efforts into dealing with the root causes of insecurity among citizens and those which cause poverty – a lack of education, a lack of personal respect, and government corruption. When people feel respected, they start to take responsibility, discover answers to their own problems and those, which their own societies face. National security in the end depends on human security, when every person feels secure.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS INTRODUCTORY SESSION II. ЕNERGY SECURITY: GAME OF THE STATES • • • •

Emerging global energy strategies. New player? Shale gas. Ecology vs energy resources: a price to pay? Ukraine: surrounded with bypasses and high prices.

UKRAINE IS IN THE SAME BOAT WITH WESTERN EUROPE Today mankind is trying to find the ideal kind of energy, something which must be as cheap as nuclear power, yet as clean as hydra energy. However, it is impossible to find the ideal kind of energy, which will be convenient in all cases, and that is why everybody understands that a good balance between different kinds of energy must be found, so that the economies of the world move forward and people’s needs are met.

Yuriy BOYKO

Ukraine has three main priorities today. First of all, it is to make Ukraine Vice-Prime-Minister of Ukraine energy independent. We must increase our domestic production, increase both traditional and unconventional gas production from all kinds of resources, increase uranium production, and we must have a higher level of energy security than before. […] We have to make the investment climate more attractive to foreign investors than it is today. The second priority for Ukraine is to continue playing a transit role in transporting gas within Europe. We are today the key element of energy security for Europe, and we hope that this situation will remain in the future also. That is why we need the support of Western Europe; and we need dialogue with our Russian partners to continue playing the role of being a transit country, to continue supporting energy security and its business in our country, because traditionally we have had the largest gas transport system in Europe. If we have a problem in this area, this problem will come to the remainder of Europe; that is why I consider that we are in the same boat.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

SHALE GAS CAN BE A MAJOR PART OF THE UKRAINE’S ENERGY POLICY

H.E. John F. TEFFT Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador of the United States of America to Ukraine (2009–2013)

6th Кyiv Security Forum

Shale gas now supports more than 600,000 jobs in the United States and by 2015 it is expected to increase to 870,000 jobs. For us, shale gas is seen as transforming our country – our competitiveness, our employment situation. It has a potential impact on every single American. So, as I indicated regarding the US president’s policy, shale gas clearly plays a large part within that policy. We believe that shale gas can also be a major part of Ukraine’s energy policy. This can help Ukraine to become a country of energy sufficiency, an energy independent country.

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

SHALE GAS DIVERSIFICATION OPTIONS CHANGE THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE I am very sure that in the long term Ukrainian part will increase in the energy sector because of the availability of shale gas. We have to become pragmatic and I think that is an increasing tendency even in Western Europe. Part of the European Parliament energy policy, that energy policy should not be seen exclusively through the prism of climate and environmental issues, but also through economic factors, is what will drive energy security.

Frank UMBACH Associate Director of the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (Germany)

There are new diversification options – there are offshore shale gas fields in Romania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, and Israel, and even in Lebanon. Production costs in these new areas are high because of the depth of the Black Sea. However, because the transport distances to connect the consumer and the industries is short, if you combine the production and the transport costs it becomes clear that these diversification options for EU members do not only change the geopolitical landscape, but enhance domestic supply security. This will also have a tremendous impact on prices, because these projects are much more economically competitive than the expensive Russian gas coming in the future from the very expensive gas fields with much greater transport costs. That makes Russia very nervous, when holding discussions about the changing parameters of the European market, and what that means for Gazprom. Furthermore, this could create issues for the partners of the Russian Federation in the future within the context of their economy, which has not been diversified over last ten years.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

WHAT IS FUNDAMENTAL – BEING VERY OPEN AND TRANSPARENT TO PEOPLE At a global level we can see that the population in the world is growing – perhaps it will increase by more than one billion people by 2050 and we are seeing the demand for an improvement in living standards around the world. This could lead to a doubling of the energy demand in the first half of the century.

Graham TILEY

Secure and reliable supplies of energy are a priority, while there is a need at the same time for making responsible choices by all concerned. Challenges like climate change, clean air and the protection of the environment, and providing competitive energy prices at the same time depend on economic growth. On the other hand, we certainly see natural gas as a key part in the solution of this puzzle, including gas from unconventional sources. Natural gas already plays a key role here in Ukraine, in that it supplies 40% of Ukraine’s needs today.

Head of Shell Oil Company Office in Ukraine

People do not believe in their governments, people do not believe energy experts, people do not believe the news media. Something has broken down this trust and what I just find is fundamental indeed is being very open and transparent to people about what I am going to do, explaining why and how it is being done. Naturally building trust through such action becomes essential. This is not a question of fossil fuels or renewable energy or nuclear energy; it is a question of the combination of these resources.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

Đ&#x161;YIV SECURITY FORUM

SHALE GAS IS SAFE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT ONCE THE TECHNIQUES ARE USED IN A PROPER WAY I disagree that we hear only bad news about shale gas from Europe. No, that is not true. Forty European countries together with Ukraine, Belarus, and Turkey have plans for the production and exportation of shale gas. We are also very pleased that Ukraine has joined this club of shale gas producers and exporters. Shale gas is a kind of natural gas which is easy to find but hard to get, opposite to conventional natural gas which is hard to find but very easy to get

Piotr WOZNIAK Undersecretary of State, Ministry of Environment (Poland)

When talking about shale gas, there is an absolute need to talk about the potential environmental consequences of exploration and production. We have a special program for recording the environmental impacts of exploration on the environment, and the results we have so far show that it is safe for the environment, particularly that there is no threat to the underground water supply. I think shale gas can strengthen Ukraine as well.

6th Đ&#x161;yiv Security Forum

Đ&#x161;YIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

IT IS NOT IDEAL FOR INDIVIDUALS TO CONTROL NATURAL RESOURCES, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME STATES ARE NOT GOOD IN DEVELOPING BUSINESSES BY THEMSELVES Shale gas has been found, but it is neither inexpensive nor easy to produce. It is not ideal to have individuals control natural resources, but rather, this should Grzegorz PYTEL be more an area state control. Yes, this is the one side of the coin, but the other Energy Expert, Sobieski side of the coin is that states are not good Institute (Poland) in developing businesses by themselves, but rather it is really private companies that can do it more efficiently. If we think about government and bureaucracy, we understand that while industries make long-term decisions and take the associated risks, what I actually find quite surprising is that many companies do not realize that they are not understood by the government. Large companies cannot run societies or countries. Therefore, there has to be some formula for companies of all sizes to find a dialogue with government, so that local communities actually see benefits in their future from these industries.

6th Đ&#x161;yiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

SUMMARY PAPER INTRODUCTORY SESSION II. ENERGY SECURITY: GAME OF THE STATES NEW RESOURCES – NEW PROSPECTS – NEW POSSIBILITIES For the last 40 years, following the Arab Oil Embargo in 1973, energy security problems have continually been among the main items on the world security agenda. The numerical increase in global population and improvements in living standards in Asia hold the prospect of a doubling of energy consumption by 2050. However, energy resources are not inexhaustible. Mykhaylo HONCHAR Their use puts an increasing load on the Director of Energy Programs, planet’s environment as the consumption Analytical Center “Nomos” of growing amounts of fossil fuel leads to (Ukraine) increases in СО2 emissions. The world is moving towards policies of saving energy and greater energy efficiency. Even China, the largest consumer of fossil fuels, has introduced energy efficient technology implementation programs. At the same time, as the amounts of fossil fuels are limited, the reserves available for commercial extraction are also limited by the level of knowledge about where to find them. Along with developments in the geological sciences, the discoveries of new technologies for the exploration and development of hydrocarbon deposits, there appears to be new possibilities for the extraction of these resources, which have been previously unknown or considered to be inaccessible, and thus commercially unpromising. As soon as another technological improvement takes place, humankind receives the possibility for extracting new energy resources. The early twenty-first century has seen “the shale gas revolution” in the USA. Enormous amounts of natural gas from nonconventional sources have become available. The amount of these deposits exceeds all previously known deposits of natural gas combined. A message from Japan has become another piece of good news. It was sent one month before the KSF, on March 12, 2013, and concerned the success of the first experimental extraction of natural gas from oceanic gas-hydrates.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

This means that a new wave of gas revolution is coming – natural gas resources in the gas-hydrate mass are of an even larger order than presently known traditional deposits. Nowadays the leading world energy companies note that in the case of the development of natural gas deposits from non-conventional sources, there is sufficient supply to humankind for another 250 years. However, does this mean that alongside the discovery of “the gas Klondikes” the planet will face “an energy paradise”? It is unlikely to happen, but new waves of changes, which bring new prospects and create new possibilities, are very important.

In focus – North America The USA has achieved impressive results as an outcome of the exploration for non-conventional gas. The competitive market not only ensures lower prices than were in Europe a decade ago, but also the return of a number of chemical and metallurgy industries to the U.S. American industry is rapidly regaining its competitiveness not only compared to Europe, but also to China. 870,000 new jobs are expected to emerge in the U.S. by 2015 due to the development of the unconventional hydrocarbon industry. The growth in gas extraction and supply coupled with decreasing prices on the U.S. domestic market will stimulate gas exports. The U.S.A., for the first time in its history, has surpassed Russia in the scope of gas extraction and now intends to initiate its exportation. Although this issue is still controversial since many believe that gas exports will cause a price increase in the domestic market, a number of projects to build capacity for gas liquefaction and export terminals are already underway. The total number of bids submitted for implementation of relevant export projects has exceeded the amount of Russia’s total gas export capacity. It is understandable that not all of these projects will get the required permits from the federal government and those who do receive export licenses will not necessarily attain top capacity. However, even today it is possible to estimate that the initial volume of U.S. gas exports will be measured in the tens of billions of cubic meters. Part of this gas will come to the European market.

In focus – Europe Europe remains in a complicated financial and economic situation. One of the reasons that impede development is, undoubtedly, the high prices of energy supplies. The activities of the European Commission, aimed at liberalizing the gas market, saving energy, and introducing energy efficient technologies, have led to a certain progress, but prices remain high. This is linked not least of all to the pegging of gas prices to oil quotations in long-term contracts. The

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS increase of gas supplies that will occur as a result of increased American LNG supplies will undoubtedly increase competition on the European market and will affect prices by lowering them. However the price of LNG from the U.S., no doubt, will be high enough to make its export economically viable. That is why the exploitation of its own non-conventional gas deposits is a possible solution for Europe, especially when such European companies as Shell have acquired remarkable experience in environmentally sound gas production in North America – in the U.S. and Canada. However, Europe is not likely to repeat the American phenomenon. Nevertheless, Poland is in the forefront of the European movement for non-conventional gas. The majority of the country’s citizens support production of non-conventional gas, and more than forty wells have been already bored, and a dozen of them have performed hydrofracturing that have shown no damage to the environment. The issue of nonconventional gas in Europe should not be seen only through the prism of the environment. Europe needs re-industrialization.

In focus – Ukraine Ukraine has become another country along with Poland which intends to explore and develop non-conventional gas deposits on its own territory. Ukraine suffers from high prices for gas supplied by the Russian gas monopoly ‘Gazprom’. That is why the signing of the pilot production-sharing agreement with Shell company in 2013 regarding development of gas deposits of compacted sandstone aims at putting an end to long-term gas dependence. Signing similar agreements with other world-class players who come to Ukraine and act in the sphere of shale gas extraction and conventional gas deposits serves the same end and intentions. However, despite the very promising prospects and appropriate agreements with global players, Ukraine’s energy sector on a whole and gas in particular, remains a “black box” – nontransparent, not entirely reformed, and a high risk for making investments. Despite the declared priorities by the government – which are energy efficiency, gas substitution, development of its own energy resource supplies (coal, gas) – the realities provide little ground for optimism. The country’s own gas production is stagnant, growth of coal extraction is possible, but with the expenses of using primitive methods, particularly small coal mines. All these do not fit into the concept of a “new industrialization”. The gas extraction sector, and, particularly, coal and hydrocarbons, have led to strong economic development in such countries as Australia and Norway. For most African countries, rich in energy resources, they have turned into a curse. It’s important that Ukraine follows the path of Norway, not Nigeria. Part of the

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

revenues from hydrocarbon production, particularly taking into account the prospects of the development of gas deposits on the Black Sea shelf and gas from non-conventional sources onshore, will be put into a special fund and used to benefit all the society, since the country’s mineral wealth belong to the people of Ukraine. The preservation of the transport function of Ukrainian main gas pipelines is of importance for the success of large-scale gas extraction projects as well. In those conditions where Russia implements projects for the so called transit-free pipeline systems, the Ukrainian GTS will play an increasingly lesser part in the East – West supply line. At the same time, it turns out that the released pipeline capacity may be used to supply gas from Europe to Ukraine by the means of a reverse use of the existing gas pipelines. Ukraine has made the first steps in this regard by starting gas imports from the German company RWE via Poland and Hungary using a virtual reverse regime. Subsequently for Ukraine, for the success of its ambitious extraction projects it will be important to keep the gas transit system in the public ownership of Ukraine. The system is capable of ensuring imports of natural gas from Europe even now, and in a further perspective, to transport and export non-conventional gas. The issue of the modernization of Ukraine’s GTS is becoming very relevant. Now that the strategic alliance with its German partners has become public, those who are able to provide necessary funding as well as the execution of the technical details can start work. Article 7 of the Law of Ukraine “On principles of domestic and foreign policy of Ukraine”, dated 2010, states that one of the basic principles of domestic policy in the economic sphere is the: “transformation of Ukrainian gas, oil transit networks and electrical networks into conditions operating in the countries of the European Union”. Consequently, there is no alternative for Ukraine but European-type reforms. The commitments of Ukraine should be fulfilled in the framework of membership in the Energy Community Treaty that entirely complies with the effective legislation of Ukraine. Only under such conditions will new resources bring new opportunities for the country’s development.

Recommendations 1. Europe should intensify efforts in advanced areas of power economy, particularly in a part of development of non-conventional gas deposits and research of gas hydrates. 2. The U.S. and the EU shall strengthen coordination in the sphere of energy economies and security. The transatlantic partnership has to acquire a new quality.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS 3. For the European Commission and the U.S. Administration it would be reasonable to take measures to ensure favorable conditions for supplying American gas in the form of LNG to the European market. 4. Ukraine should decide on a new energy strategy for the period ending in 2030 in compliance with membership in the Energy Community Treaty, the future Association Agreement, and the Free Trade Area+, key EU instruments and MEA recommendations in this sector. 5. Complete the reform of the gas sector in line with Ukraine’s obligations arising from its membership in the Energy Community Treaty. The Ukraine’s GTS under any circumstances has to be retained in state ownership. 6. Create regulatory and legal as well as technological conditions for the complete synchronization of the Ukrainian GTS with the EU gas transit network (primarily with Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania), that will make it possible to increase the reverse supplies from the EU countries and intensify competition in the Ukrainian gas market, remove the monopolistic dependence on the Russian gas supply, and help to lower prices for customers. 7. In liaison with the national GTS operators of the Visegrad countries, interested investors and the European Commission should develop a modernization project with the purpose of extending the use of the Ukrainian UGS, its integration into the EU gas sector to enhance security of supplies for Ukraine as well as in the markets of neighboring EU countries and those who intend to establish the Eastern-European Gas Hub in the future. 8. Hold a wide open national discussion with regard to establishing a National Development Fund, into which part of the revenues obtained from hydrocarbon resource extraction will be transferred for use by future generations.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

SUMMARY OF THE DAY I It is natural that security in the Black Sea Region became the opening topic for the first day of the Forum. It is not natural, however, that it is only in the 6th Kyiv Security Forum that it is the overarching theme. Five years ago there was a strong feeling among the Forum participants, both Ukrainian and foreign alike, that Ukraine had already become or was at least coming within an ace of turning into a contributor to security in the region and in Eastern Europe altogether. Ukraine was also the subject of anxious talks by some, but these were only occasional and of little force.

Andriy VESELOVSKY Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine

Alas, we failed to make it as a contributor, and most speeches left a bitter taste in everyone’s mouth, which was rather noticeable. The theme of the Russian Federation’s responsibility for the situation in the region has become yet more dramatic compared to previous years. It has always been in place, running like a scarlet thread through 2008, but today it seems to have become deadlocked. No so-called frozen conflicts – NagornoKarabakh, Transnistria, Abkhazia, and Southern Ossetia – have in the slightest degree thawed, while the latter two are being gradually solidified even further. In this context, an appeal from one of the panellists to Ukraine, Turkey, Georgia, Moldova, and the European Union to find faults in their own actions and thus offer Russia the possibility to make concessions to resolve the impasse sounded most optimistic. What he perhaps purported to was that Russia would not come to terms if offended. If truth be told, the vast majority of participants had doubts as to whether the unoffended, satisfied, and victorious Russia would make concessions. As bitterly noted by another participant, countries have animal instincts, just like any other animal on this plant. According to him, the instinct of the Russian Federation is to keep hold of everything and never give ground. It is fair to say however, that his country has also never given ground unless forced.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS Strange, if it was not deliberate, was the proposal from one of the participants to discuss European security relations, such as German and Greek tensions (contextually, it looked like a comparison with the confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan). There could come a point, where the subject goes further and draws attention away from the immediate interest of Ukraine and the region, in fact from the aim of the Forum. This was prevented by a rational, emotional and well-reasoned position taken by Germany’s Ambassador to Ukraine, which can be viewed as a perfect example of timely, tough, and at the same time diplomatic interference worthy of being taught to young international relations experts at diplomatic academies. Intense discussion was somewhat watered down only by so-called arguments for a “positive trend” in the Caucasus exemplified by Russia’s decision to resume imports of Georgian wine and mineral water. These arguments, however, seemed not to be appreciated by the audience. Thematic discussion did not prevent a number of long standing participants to come up with shrewd, aphoristic conclusions, which should not go unquoted. Here are a few of them: “Margaret Thatcher – a symbol of courageous thinking, decisive actions and enthusiasm – has died. Enthusiasm has also died a death here in the region.” “Our speeches will change nothing. However, we are given the opportunity to listen. Let’s think out loud.” “Let us not forget that security begins at home with balanced governance, a dialogue between the state and its citizens, and strong institutions.” Judging by the synopses of the 6th Kyiv Security Forum, these simple truths are either not perceived or are simply ignored in the region. The active participation of an African political scientist in the first and later panels came unexpectedly for many, but was perhaps intentionally designed by the hosts. “A common ideology, which ruled in the region in Soviet times, supported institutions and secured order. Find a shared ideology for conflicting parties and you will see the order restored,” he said. This appears to be true yet unrealistic even on a mid-term horizon. The second panel – Natural Resources and the Future – saw no significant discussion. The two panellists produced brilliant, knockdown arguments. There was no one who could have challenged them, or, truth be told, there was no reason to.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS What indeed can one say against the logic of inconsistencies emerging in the “demographic burden – depletion of resources – antagonism, conflicts, war” pattern? Geography makes no difference, as is the case in Africa, in South East Asia, in the Middle East, in Latin America and, though not evident as yet, in developed Europe. The problem is all-pervasive: fishery, agriculture, water, clean air, waste recycling, industrial waste, the environmental impacts of extraction of energy – everything we call the environment is rapidly degrading. The panellists know the ways to fight this global threat. We need new, lean resource extraction and waste management technologies, new methods of farming, new breeds and crop varieties, gardening, soil desalination, economical irrigation. First and above all, there should be an understanding of the global challenge among the public and the need to pay a high price for this among governments. This looked like a small, but comprehensive set of strong imperatives: -

civil society is aware of the threat and gets on together;

pressure is being exerted via network connections;

dynamic (political!) leadership is being ensured.

After that, we got back to a balanced relationship between development and environment. The role of large multinational corporations in approaching the problem was underlined to the point by the above-mentioned African political scientist: they can, deliberately, occasionally, make a problem, and they also can facilitate its solution by having the necessary resources. As pointed out above, the regional audience did not enter into discussion, although Ukraine, Moldova, the Northern Caucasus and particularly Central Asia had already had a shot across the bow. Post-Soviet societies, being at the stage of wild capitalism and overly preoccupied with consumption and appropriation, seem not to see the trees for the forest. Abuse of the natural environment goes off the scale while public awareness remains intact. The most frightening thing is that nothing seems to wake us up! Expecting the unexpected – that was how the audience approached the third panel, dedicated to energy security. However, in contrast with some of the previous Forums, this time the energy theme was viewed either in a technical, or in a public relations context. The only exception was the scheduled speech

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

on energy issues by the Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine, Yuriy Boyko, who informed those present that Kyiv has a streamlined strategy. It falls under his responsibility and is as follows: -

gaining energy independence through Ukraine’s own production of energy carriers (gas in particular) and attracting foreign investments, such as from Shell Oil Company;

remaining a transit country (today 60% of Russia’s gas exports to the EU are transported through Ukraine’s gas transit system), while involving Russia as a gas supplier and European gas buyers in the modernization of the gas transit system;

reaching energy efficiency, above all in the housing and utilities sector, through the introduction of new technologies for energy generation and transmission.

The Vice Prime Minister assured the group that Ukraine has a strong intention to sign the Association Agreement with the EU in November 2013, while at the same time preserving an active trade relationship with members of the Customs Union – Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia (accounting for almost 40% of total trade revenue) while maintaining an observer status. In addition, he appealed to the EU member states to be more active in rendering investment and political support to Ukraine. He also noted that until quite recently there have been warnings from a number of the European Union member countries over development of shale gas reserves, which has had a negative effect on public opinion in Ukraine and was somewhat dramatized at the signing of a contract with Shell Oil in Kharkiv Oblast. Finally, he repeatedly underlined that the strategic directions he referred to in his speech were pre-approved by the President of Ukraine. As far as disruptions of gas supplies from Russia via Ukraine to the EU are concerned, the Vice Prime Minister made the point that they also happened during the former president’s time in office. Such a full-fledged speech left almost no room for questions or discussion, although the panellists included the US Ambassador to Ukraine, the Director of Shell Oil in Ukraine and prominent foreign energy experts. In essence, the panellists kept repeating that shale gas extraction, subject to a strict observance of proper technological processes, is a safe and profitable business that would contribute to Ukraine’s energy security and job creation. Attempts to add other energy aspects to the discussion (such as nuclear power issues, renewable energy, transition to economically justified residential energy tariffs, coal-fired power industry, etc.) were given only passing mention. It looked as

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS if participants wanted to leave the audience pleasantly impressed and assured of the outlook with promises of a fair weather future. All in all, that did the trick, especially, since the German expert sharply criticized the plan for building the South Stream gas pipeline from Novorossiysk in the Kuban Region to Italy via the Black Sea and Adriatic Sea. He pointed out that Italy is oversaturated with gas, there is no increase in demand for gas expected in Europe until 2020, a gas pipeline under two seas is extremely costly, the gas to be transported by it from Western Siberia is already costly as well, the United States has begun exporting its cheap shale gas, and Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine are prospecting for gas on the Black Sea shelf while Cyprus is doing the same in the Mediterranean… In other words, the Southern Stream looks like absurd political PR and will be a heavy burden on Russia’s budget. These arguments have remained unanswerable, as the panel had no representatives from Russia. An indirect proof of the German expert’s thoughts came from the Polish expert’s comments about potential success of shale gas extraction in northern Poland. In the end, listeners were given much food for thought. It seems that the time to hesitate is through, as all stay on track and there are no new arguments for being sceptical about this choice. All that is left to do is hope that the long-suffering energy theme has finally ceased to be a neverending hiccup of politics for Ukraine, and is gradually becoming as boring and predictable, as it is in the Netherlands, where Shell Oil comes from.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS PLENARY SESSION I. BE PREPARED FOR TOMORROW • The world is not the same. Emerging security threats. • Financial Crises: America is recovering, Europe is sinking, and China is rising? • Middle East: mirror of global threats? • Modern security dilemma: state vs individual.

THE KEY FACTOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WORLD… ABOUT EVERY HUMAN BEING, EDUCATION AND INTELLECT The world is actually developing; we are not to present a gloomy picture of it. We are to shape the scenario of the future. We have a number of different kinds of international organizations of multilateral and bilateral agreements. However, we don’t have a united political will in every country, in every international organization to reach that target. The target is to make the world better, to have this be a real tomorrow, where poverty has been tackled. These are also key issues for everyone in the world, to decrease energy consumption and energy dependence, to fight pandemics, to fight against terrorists and to develop the world.

Аrseniy YATSENYUK Founder of the Open Ukraine Foundation, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (2007), Head of the “Batkivshchyna” Parliamentary Faction, Parliament of Ukraine

However, the key factor for the development of the world is not just about a nation, it’s not just about international organizations. It’s more about every single human being. It’s more about education, the intellect, but it’s more about vision. The key role for my country and the most important thing we have to implement is to make Ukraine a pro-European state. This is a historic moment for my country. We lost 300 years, starting from the year 1654, when Ukraine

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

didn’t become a part of what “Europe” means today. We don’t want to lose 300 more years. We want to be a part of modern Europe. We want to develop our country with European standards, with European values, and with our European partners, which are actually the EU member-states. I am very optimistic because this is not just the signing of a merely formal act. This is the future of a European nation of 45 million people. This is one of the largest countries on the European continent, and our future is in Europe. I believe that we will have a tomorrow, and this tomorrow will be bright. Everything depends on us.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

THE ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT IS A WAY TO SHARE VALUES BEFORE SHARING INSTITUTIONS The major principles of the European project are that only democracies with good standards in protecting human rights and governing under the rule of law shall be accepted as members. It took years until some southern European countries could join the European Jan TOMBINSKI Community after all their dictatorships, it took also decades for central European Head of the EU Delegation to countries to fight against the Cold War Ukraine and totalitarian Communism. The scope of the European project is to give to future generations a better future and greater possibilities to use their own potential. The Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine is a long-term engagement. It is also a way to share values before sharing institutions. This is one of the steps on the way to engaging in all the processes of European integration. Association is about creating better conditions for Ukraine to modernize its own structures and to have this action plan for making Ukraine friendlier for its own citizens. The European model is to reduce the scope of activity for politicians and to increase the scope of action for citizens, to make the principle of the presumption of innocence one of the core principles of the judiciary, to have the administration work to serve the citizens, and not the citizens to serve the administration, and to make the economy more competitive. It’s much more than just free trade areas, but much more about free markets. This Association is a toolbox and a good engine to make the country friendlier to its citizens. This toolbox could really serve the purpose of assisting in the national development of Ukraine. Use this toolbox to increase the attractiveness of your country. This Association is itself a positive offer. It doesn’t contain any negative consequences for the other partners of Ukraine. […] This is just to focus more on Ukraine.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

Đ&#x161;YIV SECURITY FORUM

BE PEPARED FOR TOMORROW MEANS HAVING THE ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE EU AND UKRAINE TODAY Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are the only countries of the former Soviet Union who are both members of the European Union and NATO. Fortunately, we are not having discussions on the Customs Union, but still, even after 23 years of our independence from the USSR, Russia is still one of the security challenges in the region and in the Baltic States also. I do hope that Russia will be able to change itself, but today the reality is unfortunately different.

Rasa JUKNEVICIENE Member of Parliament, Minister of Defense of Lithuania (2008-2012)

The Eastern Partnership is the most important strategy for the future development of post-Soviet areas. That is why the Vilnius Summit is very important for us in setting what we will be able to do together with our Eastern partners to go forward. Of course, the most important precondition for the security in the region is the gravitation of the countries in the East towards the European Union. Ukraine has a very important role and job to do for itself and for other countries. Unfortunately, not everybody in the European Union understands that the Ukrainian direction towards the European Union is the key to solving the current Russian autocratic regime problems. To be prepared for tomorrow, it means having the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union today.

6th Đ&#x161;yiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

THE RUSSIAN ENERGY MONOPOLY AT THE EUROPEAN MARKET IS BECOMING LESS CERTAIN

Аriel COHEN Senior Fellow, Heritage Foundation, Member of Council on Foreign Policy issues (USA)

Ukraine can actually attain prosperity, but that means the economic climate there has to be changed. What is needed is political will and social mobilization, not the egotism of the ruling elite. To achieve progress in Ukraine you have to export, you have to diversify, you cannot look only at the East and not only at Western Europe. You have to expand, broaden the energy economy; the agricultural potential in Ukraine is tremendous and there will be markets for Ukrainian agricultural products not just in Europe, but also in the Middle East, China, and Asia.

We are still seeing a tentative improvement of the economy of the US. It is expected to improve probably two to three percent a year now, which is decent, led by the housing market. The shale gas and oil that are being pumped in increasing amounts are reducing energy costs. You can now also see for the first time a phenomenon in which corporations are moving production from China back into the United States. That’s an amazing new development. Russia is experiencing rather anemic growth at present. The key issue is whether Russia can continue to dominate the European oil and gas markets, or whether Europe is going to get more energy, such as liquid and natural gas from places like Nigeria, Algeria, Qatar and others. The Russian monopoly on the European market is becoming more shaky.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

Đ&#x161;YIV SECURITY FORUM

IN SYRIA EVERY OPTION IS WORSE THEN THE OTHER OPTION The Middle East is a mirror of global threats because many threats spread from the Middle East and what takes place there contributes both positively and negatively to the security of the entire world. When we talk about the Middle East from a security point of view, the main issues are the Arab Spring and now, the Syrian crisis. The Arab Spring in countries other than Syria has reached a certain level, I will not call it stability, but at least we know how it started and what point it has reached.

Yasar YAKIS Member of Parliament of Turkey, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey (2002-2003)

When we come to Syria, what is going on in Syria is full of unknowns. In my opinion, in Syria every option is worse than the other option. Almost all of the stake holders were wrong in their actions. First of all, the Bashar Assad regime was wrong by firing at the demonstrators which were unarmed. Then the opposition was wrong to mislead the international community that the fall of the regime was imminent and the dictatorship was not being supported. Then the international community was wrong by believing the opposition, and was again wrong by arming the opposition.

6th Đ&#x161;yiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EUROPE SHOULD BE MUCH MORE RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS OWN SECURITY AND DEFENSE We have lost at least the last nine years and both sides are guilty in this situation. By this I mean the Ukrainian political elites and the European Union itself. Immediately after the Orange Revolution there was no strategic step from the EU side to present the Association Agreement as one of the crucial impulses to make the path of Ukraine entry into the European Community much easier. The historical challenge which we face this year is that we should appreciate this, because this is a really significant moment for both – the European Union and Ukraine.

Bogdan KLICH Member of Parliament of Poland, Minister of Defense of Poland (2007-2011)

Within NATO, after the crucial decisions made at the Lisbon Summit we are concerned with a new strategic concept. In this concept there is an attempt of the Euro-Atlantic community to find the right balance between the traditional tasks and the new tasks facing the alliance, those are collective defense and deterrence, and expeditionary missions. The future will be shaped by the implementation of this balance in reality. NATO can be a security organization if, and only if, this collective defense will be preserved. On one hand, we have a new American security and defense policy which includes tremendous and strategic shifts. It is moving from Europe to the Pacific Region and to Eastern Asia. Also there is a change in their collaboration with their European partners. However, they are inviting us, their European partners, to have a much more functional and operational collaboration with them. This new shape of collaboration is that they are concentrating much more on training and exercises, instead of a traditional deployment of forces. Europe must respond at that. Europe should be much more responsible for its own security and its own defense. This is the huge challenge for us, especially in the environment of the European financial crisis, especially for the European Union.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

WE NEED URGENTLY TO RETHINK THE CONCEPT OF STATES

Ekuru AUKOT Director of the Committee of Experts of Development of the Constitution of Kenya

Is there a tomorrow without individuals, or without states? I see this because we are witnessing shallow states, we are witnessing very weak states. Moving towards tomorrow we can find ourselves completely without states, but individualized, in groups, different ethnic groups. We need urgently to rethink the concept of states, because states are being seen as failing to protect individuals, failing to protect communities.

Is there really a tomorrow, if there is no today? Or is it today that is under the real threat from things such as terrorism, nuclear? I don’t think that these things are aimed at the state. The state is an abstract reality. All these dangers are targeted at individuals. When individuals are vanquished, then you don’t have tomorrow, and you don’t have states. Therefore, tomorrow for me should be qualitative. I think these dangers are real, the reality is that tomorrow exists with all these dangers.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

SUMMARY PAPER PLENARY SESSION I. BE PREPARED FOR TOMORROW Introduction Session I was concentrated upon the transforming nature of security, both internal and international. Speakers outlined new security dilemmas: those of state vs. individual security; traditional vs. non-traditional challenges, and, not least, the ways they should be treated. The floor was opened by Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Founder of the Open Ukraine Foundation, a Head of the “Batkivschyna” Parliamentary Faction and a former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. He stressed the diversity of the challenges the world as a whole is currently facing. Not only traditional wars and military violence, but also financial crises and energy inefficiency are on the agenda. With all those risks one should not forget the human dimension of security, which seems to be gaining more importance. Within this context, the Ukrainian choice to align itself more with Western Europe is becoming a historic one, a development not seen in more than three hundred years.

Mykola KAPITONENKO Executive Director of the Center of International Studies since 2001, Associate Professor and Department Chair of International Relations and Foreign Policy at the Institute of International Relations since 2006 and at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine since 2009 (Kyiv, Ukraine)

Jan Tombiński, the Head of the Delegation of the European Union to Ukraine, noted that the Association Agreement is one of the steps on the way to European integration, designed to create better conditions and standards for Ukraine and bring it closer to Europe overall. He stressed that for some states it has taken years or even decades to join the European family, and thus the Association Agreement is a long-term commitment.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS Rasa Jukneviciene, a former Minister of Defense of Lithuania and a Parliament Member, drew the attention to the Russian factor in European security. With this in mind, she pointed out a main precondition for security in Europe: gravitation of the Eastern European countries towards the European Union. From this point of view, Ukraine’s closer relations with Europe are becoming a key to both the “Russian factor” and a general framework for continental security. Ariel Cohen, a Senior Fellow from the Heritage Foundation, concentrated on global changes, challenges, and perspectives. He outlined a shift in the global economy, triggered by a shale gas boom in the USA, a shift which has resulted in a return of production back to the States and weakening of Russia’s monopoly on the European energy markets. From his point of view, Ukraine’s opportunities are in diversifying markets, improving energy policy, betting more on agriculture. With this done, Ukraine’s list of potential strategic partners will significantly broaden. Yasar Yakis, a former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, drew attention to the hot problems in the Middle East, including those in Syria. Islamization is seen to be a threat not only to regional, but also global security. Bogdan Klich, a former Minister of Defense of Poland, outlined that the strategic environment is undergoing significant changes, and security institutions, including NATO and the EU are reacting to new challenges. In this regard, in his view, both the Ukrainian political elite and the EU are responsible for having lost the last several years without making significant progress. With the American security priorities shifting from Europe to Eastern Asia and the Pacific region, Europe should become more responsible for its own security.

Policy Recommendations A range of issues raised at the panel was as broad as the agenda of current international security. The speakers mentioned both global issues, political and economic, and regional security concerns. By doing this, they arrived at a rather complex picture. The following general recommendations could be summed up. 1. Security challenges are getting more diverse. Not only the usual geopolitical developments are shaping the security environment, but energy issues, economic backwardness, lack of political will, and normative considerations define the key risks that states and societies are facing. With this in mind, an approach to security

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

should be further broadened not only in academic realm, but also in political activity. 2. Democratic values should remain a core to European security. Normative closeness and a shared outlook prove to be the best basis for political actions. In this regard the EU external activities should be framed by its normative power. Cooperation with neighboring states, including Ukraine, should be aimed at enhancing normative unity. 3. Ukraine is important for Europe, as well as Europe being important for Ukraine. Both parties should assume joint responsibility for their further relations. Progress is important. It could help Ukraine gain access to technologies and markets, and it will be fruitful for the EU to “gravitate” another Eastern European country westwards and thus make a contribution into a further strengthening of European security. Moreover, Ukrainian successful dialogue with the European Union could help make Russia’s stance in European affairs more constructive.

Conclusions Tomorrow looks challenging. Shifts in global finance, energy, and hard security go along with problems of human development and normative issues. Combining all those elements of a complex understanding of security is not always easy. However, one should face a truly interdependence of subjects, actors, and issues in the security field. This interdependence produces hard dilemmas for state policies. Recent developments place human beings at the center of security concerns, leaving traditional state interests behind. Normative considerations gain utmost significance and are becoming principal for political and economic cooperation or integration. All in all, this questions the role of states in providing security, broadening the participation of non-state agents. Combining these developments is crucial for an effective security strategy, not only for the EU, major European states or Ukraine, but also for a whole variety of non-governmental subjects, whose interests are also at stake.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS COUNTRY CASE STUDY. UKRAINE. WHAT’S NEXT? • • • •

Ukraine – a human friendly country? EU: never cease to warn? First Aid Kit for good governance. East or West? Home is…?

CORRUPTION IS A CANCER INSIDE UKRAINE Every human being deserves the very reasonable expectation that they can enjoy their human rights, and that government serves as the protector of those human rights. Without this democracy cannot function. Corruption is a cancer inside Ukraine that is suffocating democracy as it metastasizes within all the public and private sectors. From an outside analysis, corruption here is at all levels of government.

Susan CORKE Director of Eurasia Programs, Freedom House (USA)

Recommendations for Ukraine: 1) To release political prisoners and in particular former government officials; 2) Ukraine has to follow reforms to integrate with the EU; 3) To take steps to free government influence in the news media; a media must exist that can truly be independent and able to provide reliable information to the public; 4) Ukraine needs to end its systemic corruption. So Ukraine is at an important crossroads, it has a choice to make, whether law, human rights, and democracy are respected, or whether it goes evermore toward a more authoritarian regime, where corruption is the norm, which will hold back the progress of the country.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

EU PROPOSES, EXPERTS AND HOPES We see this moment from now until the Vilnius Eastern Partnership Summit as a crucial moment in Ukraine’s choice between East and West.

Jacek SARYUSZ-WOLSKI Vice-President of the European People’s Party (Poland)

The European Union is fed up with Ukraine’s statements of good intentions, followed by non-implementation and non-delivery. The expectations of the European Union are very clear. There are three points: an end to selective justice, including the release of Yulia Tymoshenko; reform of the electoral system; reform of the judiciary.

The European Union is deadly serious about these expectations and without their fulfillment and delivery there will be no signing of the Association Agreement with Ukraine during the Vilnius Summit. Ukraine will be overtaken by the three signatories of Moldova, Georgia and Armenia. Some time ago Ukraine was a regional leader, but it is no longer a leader. It is not only about economic contracts – it is about values and a system of government. On the European Union side there is the will and preparedness to assist Ukraine in its Europeanization, on achieving European standards in the economy and life within its society, and learning from the best experiences of member-states like Poland, Romania, and others. The EU proposes, expects and hopes. The European Union cannot have Ukraine as a half-member, with all the risk for the European Union with a country, which does not respect its own fundamental principles.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

THERE IS NOTICE THAT UKRAINE IS MOVING BACK TO THE “GREY ZONE” Where is Ukraine today? This question is not because of foreign policy choices, but because of its domestic policy choices. In fact, it is noticed that Ukraine is moving back to the “grey zone”. Good news does not come out of Ukraine. Furthermore, when you talk to officials in the US government, you get a sense of frustration that they can’t find anything to work with, to move the Ukraine-US relationship in a positive direction.

Steven PIFER Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution, U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine (1998-2000)

About Russia […] it has become pretty clear that President Putin wants to recreate a stronger Russian influence in post-Soviet space. Ukraine is a key target of that policy. Ukraine is at a crossroads. It has the opportunity to make a choice in the next couple of months. I think, it is important for Ukraine to move away from the “grey zone”. It doesn’t depend on Ukraine making changes in its foreign policy. It depends very much on Ukraine making changes in its domestic policy. That is what the West is going to watch over the next few months.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

IT IS IMPORTANT TO BE CONSISTENT FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION

Hryhoriy NEMYRIA

What should be done to regain trust between Ukraine and the EU? Number one – release political prisoners and rehabilitate them. The release of Yuriy Lutsenko was a good first step, but it was not enough. The necessary next step is to release Yuliya Tymoshenko and ensure the prevention of further cases of selective justice.

Chairman of the Committee on European Integration of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

Number two – to implement the recommendations of the OSCE report on Ukrainian elections, which has basically two dimensions: first – new legislation, approval of the draft electoral code already developed. The second – hold elections in the five districts which are not represented in parliament. One more issue should be mentioned – the elections in Kyiv. A third sort of criteria, of course, is to start real reform in the judiciary sphere, the most unreformed institution in Ukraine, namely in the office of the prosecutor general. There is still potential within the Eastern Partnership to continue engagement with Ukraine. There are three conditions to continue this engagement. First – be consistent with the instruments that already exist, but use them more efficiently. Second – to consider new instruments, some of them have been tried in the pilot stage. The primary task is to unlock the potential of Ukraine’s civil society. The third – it is important to be consistent for the European Union.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

THE PROBLEM OF EUROPEAN STANDARDS IS CONCENTRATED NOT ONLY IN THE GOVERNMENT – THIS IS IN EVERY SINGLE UKRAINIAN YARD What is the main problem for Ukraine? Ukraine doesn’t share European values. Europe is not bribery on the roads. Europe is not the standard in the Ukrainian courts. Europe has nothing similar with Petro POROSHENKO the Ukrainian position and level of administrative corruption. Furthermore, Member of Parliament of the problem of the European standard is Ukraine, Minister for Foreign concentrated not only in the government. Affairs of Ukraine (2009This is in every single Ukrainian yard – 2010), Minister of Economic when you go to the doctor, or to the Development and Trade of traffic police, or to school. We all talk Ukraine (2012) about European values, and I think that we can achieve and are already demonstrating progress in this area. I am an optimist. I don’t think that Ukraine has ever been as close to European values in its history as now. Is Ukraine a loser in this process? No. I am pretty sure that the level of support for European integration among Ukrainian society will help us to return to a leading position in that process. I want to state a very important criterion for any politician: if you are against the European Union, you have no chance at winning any election in Ukraine.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

THE FIRST AND MOST IMPORTANT EUROPEAN VALUE IS THE RULE OF LAW

Pawel-Robert KOWAL Member of the European Parliament (Poland)

The lack of deep reform of the juridical system is the first obstacle to building a real civil society for free people. Even the best reforms will not be effective without introductory changes in the key areas of the judicial system. The law has to be changed to solve Ukrainian problems. The first and most important European value is the rule of law. There must be the same principle of law in Ukraine as in the European Union.

The second issue is corruption. Corruption is a cancer. Corruption cannot ever be fully eliminated, but we can reduce its social consequences. We have to ask our Ukrainian colleagues: are radical actions against corruption the best solution? Corruption is the subject of almost every discussion about Ukraine. Maybe, there is no other possibility than the zero option. That is, forget about the past and start everything over from the beginning. It’s controversial, but it may be the only option. The plan of the fight against corruption has to be total. It should start with education. However, how can it be made to have people believe in it? The majority of young people in Ukraine are proud to be Ukrainians, but the majority also doesn’t trust politicians. Trust in Ukrainian politicians has to be rebuilt in Ukraine!

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

SUMMARY PAPER COUNTRY CASE STUDY. UKRAINE. WHAT’S NEXT? Clearing Muddy Waters A Ukrainian friend, when asked why his country’s economic and political system is so persistently murky and corrupt, replies with a folk saying: “Muddy water makes for good fishing.” Indeed, with so many within the country’s current elite having risen to prominence precisely because of their ability to thrive in the muddy water of post-Soviet gangster capitalism, their continued investment in cynical political technologies that obscure, rather than enlighten, should come as no surprise.

Jim GREENE Senior Fellow, Institute of Statecraft (USA)

Neither should it astonish that this same murkiness permeates Ukraine’s European integration policy. The Yanukovch Administration, in an echo of Kuchma’s ‘NATO integration’ effort a decade ago, today seeks to blunt external critics and mollify domestic pro-European constituencies with lip service to Western values, while aggressively preserving Ukraine’s murky status quo. When Western institutions have turned critical, he and his predecessors have switched tactics easily, feeding resentment toward the West to distract from failed reforms and justify their inability to leave insecure the ‘grey zone’ between East and West – a zone they profess to fear, but where they feel quite comfortable. Honest and well-meaning proponents of Ukraine’s European future – both inside and outside the country – have long served as enablers for this cynical approach, by their tendency to overlook stalled reforms, obscure criticism in diplomatic language, and obsess over Brussels-based decisions and political ‘momentum’. This coddling has accomplished little, other than to discredit Western institutions, the integration processes and their proponents in the eyes of a skeptical Ukrainian public. In contrast, this year’s Kyiv Security Forum (KSF) offered a refreshing and timely dose of clarity.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

Europe in Ukraine Rather than obsess about EU-Ukraine political relations, this year’s KSF discussion focused on Ukraine’s internal development path as the key to that country’s European integration. As the standard of measurement for a European country, the panel used the innovative and approachable idea of “human-friendly,” broadly defined by Susan Corke of Freedom House as a country where individuals enjoy broad rights that are protected by a government of their choosing. In comparing Ukraine to this ‘human-friendly’ standard, panelists noted critical gaps. The October 2012 parliamentary election fell well short of international standards, compounded by authorities’ recent actions: contentious rulings and re-runs of elections in selected districts, stripping newly-elected deputies of their mandates, and the questionable legal decision to delay Kyiv’s mayoral election for two years. This disenfranchisement of voters is taking place in the context of a broader effort to use administrative pressure, raider attacks, selective justice, extortion, and buy-out offers to suborn independent media, suppress civic and political movements, and induce parliamentarians to switch allegiances. Repression targets more than the opposition; it is endemic to a state that preys on its citizens through a judicial and police system that serves not law, but self-interest and power. Panelists agreed on the measures that should be taken to address these shortfalls – measures that broadly coincide with the criteria set out by the EU Council last December: the restoration of popular legitimacy through free and fair elections, the end of political persecution, and the re-invigoration of a broad reform agenda. Several speakers went into additional detail:

Pawel Koval raised the reform of the court system as an essential element of implementing EU values and re-building citizens’ trust in government. At the same time, he noted that flexibility may be needed to provide a viable way forward on entrenched issues like corruption.

Hryhoriy Nemyria highlighted the reform of the prosecutor’s department as the core element of badly-needed judicial reform, and emphasized that re-building public trust requires reinvigorating the electoral system. This should include the implementation of OSCE ODIHR recommendations in a new electoral code, the release and rehabilitation of political prisoners, and the conduct of free and fair elections for parliamentary districts facing re-runs and for the Kyiv city mayor.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

Petro Poroshenko underlined the importance of reform across all areas highlighted in the association agreement, as well as in society more broadly, with corruption routine in areas like medical services and education.

Perhaps most significantly, in assessing responsibility for these shortfalls and in looking forward to correcting them, panelists focused their attention inside Ukraine, to the country’s political leadership and its active civil society. To some extent, this is an acknowledgement of increasing Ukraine fatigue by external actors: an EU that Jacek Sarysz-Wolski characterizes as fed up with “intentions, declarations, and no implementation” and as the United States where Stephen Pifer notes that “Ukraine has fallen off the radar” in the face of a busy foreign policy agenda and lack of good news. At the same time, this internal focus is also a long-overdue admission that external actors and frameworks cannot replace internal motivation in driving fundamental change. As they considered the situation within Ukraine, panelists were skeptical about the governmental elite’s commitment to implementing reform, yet more optimistic about the commitment and influence of the country’s active civil society.

Clarity over Patience This divergence between the interests of Ukraine’s governmental elites and the substantial majority of the public that supports European integration is not new. Indeed, Western willingness to balance the short-term interests of Ukraine’s elite with a long-term process of reform – in which those interests converge with a democratic, European future for the country and its people – has been an important driver of the philosophy of ‘strategic patience’ that has been at the core of Western engagement with Ukraine over much of the past twenty years. Two factors are now forcing a shift in that philosophy. First, the ambitions of Ukraine’s ruling elites are increasingly diverging with those of its pro-European public, which is left with markedly diminished political, economic, and cultural space. The Ukrainian government’s main approach to European integration has shifted correspondingly, from managing the difficulties of convergence to managing the tensions of divergence. Ukraine’s leadership gives no sign that it intends to move toward a system based on democracy, transparency, and rule of law (or indeed, even understand how such a system might function). Its goal is rather a simulation of European integration, with the aim of neutralizing domestic political tension and accessing European resources on its own terms. Ukraine’s recent effort to modify virtually its entire WTO package provides a vivid example of this approach in action.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

These changes appear to be driving a major shift in strategic thinking within the European Union, away from ‘strategic patience’ and in favor of political clarity. Rather than overlooking (or enabling) political ‘nuance’, the EU is taking a more stand-off approach in the run-up to the Vilnius Eastern Partnership Summit: setting transparent criteria and openly assessing implementation, while trusting Ukraine’s society and political system to hold the country’s leadership accountable for the result. This approach was most clearly set out by Jacek Sarysz-Wolski, speaking on behalf of the European People’s Party, when he described two scenarios: one in which Ukraine meets the criteria set out by the European Council last December, ending selective prosecution, moving ahead on electoral reform, and re-invigorating other key reforms, most notably the judicial system. In the other scenario, if Ukraine fails to make the necessary reforms, the Association Agreement and DCFTA will remain unsigned, and Ukraine will find itself overtaken on its path toward Europe by Georgia, Moldova, and perhaps even Armenia. This shift in the EU approach does not yet appear to have registered with Ukraine’s leadership, which remains confident that the combination of playing the ‘Russia Card’ and finessing the criteria to provide the EU with a fig leaf will result in signing the Association Agreement. In contrast, the EU appears confident that in the face of the Ukrainian public’s high level of support for European integration, the already-unpopular Yanukovych administration will be forced to make substantial concessions or face unpalatable political consequences. In the view of panelists, such concessions would need to stretch beyond the recent release of Yuri Lutsenko or even Yulia Tymoshenko, to address more systemic concerns. Both Stephen Pifer and Jacek Sarysz-Wolski dismissed the ‘Russia card’ as a bluff.

The Cards are Dealt; but the Game is Just Beginning… In essence, both sides are now engaged in a high-stakes gamble, the results of which, coming out of November’s Vilnius summit, will shape the UkraineEU relationship to the end of President Yanukovych’s first term. Having taken the initiative, the EU appears to hold the stronger cards. Yet its ability to shape the outcome and preserve its influence is far from certain, and will depend on its skill in assessing Ukrainian realities, playing its cards effectively with key constituencies, and maintaining the initiative. At this point, three items are worth mentioning: In the run-up to the Vilnius Eastern Partnership summit, the most effective means of nudging Ukraine’s leadership toward positive action will be through domestic pressure; for example, by

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS encouraging pro-European business and professional communities to make their voices heard. An important constituency in this regard are senior political, governmental, and business officials who are invested in the status quo and look to the Yanukovych administration to preserve it – but may yet be unaware of the risks to their interests inherent in the administration’s approach. In the likely event that the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement and DCFTA are not signed at Vilnius, the EU will need to counter any ‘sour grapes’ responses by providing Ukrainians with alternative paths toward European development that are accessible on a human level. These could include increased student and professional visas, scholarships and cultural exchanges, and support for independent media and civil society organizations. It addition, it may be possible to allow businesses that agree to meet EU standards of ethics, practice, and corporate governance to share some DCFTA-like benefits. Some resources for these programs could be shifted from unproductive or previously-suspended programs with the Ukrainian government. Public diplomacy within EU countries will also be important to maintaining support for this engagement; Ukrainian non-governmental entities like Open Ukraine could play a valuable role in this respect. The message of continued commitment to Ukrainian society should be strengthened by a parallel effort to more carefully scrutinize the activities of Ukraine’s elites when they travel to the West. The core of this effort should be the protection of already-existing Western standards, rather than any new (political) sanction. Increased scrutiny or temporary suspension of visa-free travel for Ukrainian diplomats could serve as one early example. The impact of such actions will increase if at least some of them are applied prior to Vilnius. For two decades Ukraine’s elites have flourished in muddy water, at the expense of the country and its people. The run-up to Vilnius summit seems to signal an end to Western tolerance for that murkiness. Can the new EU approach of ‘political clarity’ pump in enough clear water to start cleaning out the ‘grey zone’ swamp?

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS PLENARY SESSION II. EUROPE: FOR WHOM THE BELL TOLLS? • • • •

Financial Crises: is there a future beyond the mist? Migration and social problems challenging EU identity. EU: GB in or out? EU neighborhood – chance to be just CLOSE TO or to be IN?

THE EU NEEDS BANKING UNION, FISCAL UNION, AND POLITICAL UNION There is the question of how to prevent financial crises, which are happening again in the EU. We need banking union, fiscal union, and political union. These are very big concepts indeed – if those things are done, the European Union will be restructured in a very fundamental way. The banking union has negotiations underway, very difficult negotiations, but Michael EMERSON it is a work in progress. The fiscal union means probably much stricter rules on Associate Senior Research the centralization of budget power, but Fellow, Center of European also regarding the high level degree of Policy Studies (Belgium) public debt. That is to say that budgetary debt would not just be Slovenian, French, or Italian public debt, but would be jointly held European Union public debt. As we come to political union, well, this raises questions about enhancing the democratic legitimacy of whatever decisions are taken in the Eurozone, monetarily and economically. These are very high powered political issues that have not been resolved, but are on the agenda. The present financial crisis is more or less controlled, but there is economic crises also. It is clearly the best policy for Ukraine to make an improved Free Trade Agreement with the Russian Customs Union and to have deep free trade with the European Union as well. To join the Russian Customs Union is a crazy idea in economic terms, and Russia, along with its leadership, should understand that it is making them an implausible economic proposition. Secondly, Ukraine should progressively lessen its energy dependence upon Russia. 6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

WE HAVE ALREADY DISCUSSED UKRAINE’S ASSOCIATION FOR SO LONG… IT SHOULD BE FINALIZED

Anna FOTYGA Member of the Polish Parliament, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland (2006-2007)

Surely, Poland has been in favor of the further enlargement of the European Union. Certainly in the case of countries neighboring us in the East, countries which emerged after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, including Ukraine, Poland, other countries, the Baltic States, Poland and other Central European countries have been in favor of accession, and we still are. It’s more important for a country with this kind of history to find certain equilibrium within a certain group of nations.

I think we have already discussed Ukraine’s Association for so long, and after having concluded so many association agreements with other countries, I think that it should be finalized with Ukraine. There is no reason for prolonging it longer. I think that countries like Poland and the Polish conservatives within it are real friends of Ukrainian society, because we tend to perceive the European Union as a group of democratic countries willing to talk, to cooperate in a spirit of solidarity, and we would like to remain so. However, certainly Eastern Europe is somehow squeezed between many powers, and we have been accustomed to just backing off from this scene. Now with the American reset, as a person looking at this situation in Europe, I strongly support Ukraine’s movement towards Western Europe. It is good to rely on different pillars for your security, and the European Union is one of these pillars.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN A GAP BETWEEN THE UK AND OTHER EU MEMBERS… AND IT’S WIDENING There has always been a gap between the UK and other EU members. It is just that for the past few years it has been widening, and it has been widening for a simple reason: there has been more mutual integration between the countries in the Eurozone than in the countries that are not in the Eurozone, and between those who want to be in it but are not and those which completely resist being in it.

Vivien PERTUSOT Head of the Brussels Office, French Institute of International Relations

In the UK today there is something that I found quite striking. There are few supporters of more integration with the EU and those that are there are politically very weak. The UK has some demands to be implemented and it can open Pandora’s box. This leads to a genuine possibility of having the UK leave the EU at some point. I don’t encourage this, and I think it would be a disaster for the UK and the EU as well. However, at the same time there are growing debates within the European Union that can basically change the chances of the UK renegotiating some of its terms. There is more flexibility, which is not a word that the EU likes very much. Why do I use this word “flexibility”? There is a growing dissatisfaction within Europe in public opinion and it is a fact that this dissatisfaction is growing, leading to more Euroscepticism, and greater resistance to deeper integration.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP: WE OFFERED RUSSIA PARTICIPATION IN THIS ORGANIZATION. THEY REJECTED THIS OFFER

Petr MAREŠ

The Association Agreement, together with the FTA, means to be quite close to the EU. Today we have about 70% in support of membership, and sometimes dealing with our Eastern Partnership friends, we tell them that membership support is almost 90 %.

Special Envoy to the Eastern Partnership, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Czech Republic

Two things: the Eastern Partnership and future membership are frequently being confused in Ukraine, and it is not only on the level of personal contacts, you can find this confusion even in the Ukrainian media. However, this is not true. At the moment, the Eastern Partnership is about Association, is about other ways of mutual cooperation, and definitely in the atmosphere of the present day it is not about membership. From the very beginning we understood that there is one danger in this concept (Eastern Partnership), namely the fact that it could be taken by Russia as a threat. So we are trying to find some way in which to involve them, but we haven’t succeeded yet. First, there was a group called the Friends of the Eastern Partnership. We offered Russia participation. They rejected it. They did so with the very straightforward explanation that they are not friends of the Eastern Partnership, so we are thinking about creating something like an observation group, or a group of observers. Well, Russia has considered this possibility and came with the proposal that they might consider becoming something like an observer in a group of observers.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

WE HAVE INVITED UKRAINE TO A HALF-MEMBERSHIP POSITION BEFORE IT IS READY We have been so desperate for a success story that we invited Ukraine to this halfmembership position before Ukraine was ready. There is a very clear need to show to the public that we do have a foreign policy, we do have influence in the neighborhood, and to also show the Americans that we are assuming more responsibility, not just in Africa, but in Eastern Europe too. If the Eastern Partnership is not successful, that will undermine the credibility of those, who have put a high degree of political capital into engaging with Eastern Europe.

Аndrew WILSON Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations (Great Britain)

With the EU in general it’s the traditional modus operandi to put the economy first. There is the famous Schuman’s method: economic integration will proceed and lead to political integration. We haven’t solved the political problem of why many new EU member-states should be net donors to countries that are poor. Not only haven’t we solved the problem, we did not produce this problem in the first place. That is, that the European middle class is paying for their state banks.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

Đ&#x161;YIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

THE TRUTH IS THAT THE EUROPEAN SOCIAL MODEL IS NOW BEING WHOLLY QUESTIONED

Lord RISBY Chairman, British Ukrainian Society (Great Britain)

The European Union has been a brilliant creation. It has helped to keep the peace, it has created a single market and wide areas of cooperation on the environment and foreign policy. However, all of these things have come at a huge price for all of us, who live in Europe. We have a crisis on our hands, and the truth is that the European social model is now being wholly questioned.

We in Great Britain are interested in overall European reform and are trying to convince our partners of this idea. If that indeed is something that arises, the treaty changes which may well happen, or if there is an agreement along these lines, whatever happens, we will go back and attempt to bring the British people into that process by offering them a referendum. So, that is our view. I think it is a rather different view from what I read occasionally about our actual supposed view.

6th Đ&#x161;yiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

SUMMARY PAPER PLENARY SESSION II. EUROPE: FOR WHOM THE BELL TOLLS? Introduction Discussion at the Plenary Session II mainly revolved around the most urgent issues of the EU’s current economic performance, its political framework, as well as the ways Ukraine could find ways of closer cooperation with the EU. Financial issues, rising debt, and economic problems were raised by Michael Emerson from the Center of European Policy Studies. He pointed out that the banking union, the fiscal union, and the political union will fundamentally restructure the European Union, and such a restructuring should be carried out very carefully. The problems of certain states, like Cyprus or Slovenia, could become problems of the Eurozone as a whole. To address these problems, the EU needs not only a legitimization of decisions through the creation of a political union, but a clear balance of budgetary policy with financial stability. This looks rather difficult to achieve.

Anna Fotyga, the former MFA of Poland and a current Polish MP, was the first to raise the problem of the EU’s possible further enlargement. She outlined that the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, i.e. former socialist states, are largely in favor of enlargement. Those which are already EU members are enjoying the benefits from accession. The Polish experience was unique in a way, enabling it to discuss integration freely and find common solutions, although at times of crises, the political domination of bigger players became more vivid. She summed up that the Polish experience should work well for Ukraine, and those EU-Ukrainian negotiations, which have lasted for so long already, should be finalized. She added that the EU may become one of the pillars of security for Ukraine, needed so much due to the fact that Eastern

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS European countries are traditionally squeezed between so many big powers. Vivien Pertusot, from the French Institute of International Relations, concentrated more on the current political problems within the EU, especially those with the demands of the United Kingdom for more “flexibility”. He stressed that public opinion in Europe is for the first time more negative about the EU than positive, which is a signal of serious challenges. Peter Mares, Special Envoy for the Eastern Partnership from the MFA of the Czech Republic, noted a differentiated approach of the EU to its eastern neighbors and called for more assistance from the EU side in bringing them closer to the EU. Although the membership perspective is not on the table, the ongoing association talks provide the EU partners with 70-90% of membership, which should be encouraging for the parties involved. He also called for there not to be confusion over EU membership, association agreements, and the Eastern Partnership. Andrew Wilson from the European Council on Foreign Relations pointed out that now is the moment when the very rationale for engaging with Eastern Europe is under question, but at the same time the EU needs the Eastern Partnership to succeed in order to demonstrate that it does have a foreign policy and influence in the neighborhood. Lord Risby, Chairman of the British Ukrainian Society, emphasized the disconnection between the institutions and the people of the EU due to a democracy deficit. From his point of view, in the next 20 years, the EU’s share in the world economy will drop by a third from the current 25%, and this is another strategic task to be addressed.

Policy Recommendations Issues raised at the panel mostly touched upon problems within the EU and its relations with its neighbors, notably with Ukraine. Speakers expressed their concerns over the most urgent problems in both regards. The following policy recommendations were put forth: 1. At the state level within the EU it is necessary to improve decisionmaking procedures. The current financial crisis has raised concerns over how centralized this decision-making should be, especially in economic and fiscal spheres. This political task should be followed by a more short-term one, concerning looking for a balanced economic policy, taking into account budgetary, fiscal, and macroeconomic issues. 2. The individual states within the EU must look for ways to enhance political dialogue with its eastern neighbors. The current policy

6th Кyiv Security Forum

Đ&#x161;YIV SECURITY FORUM

toward its eastern neighbors was introduced under different circumstances. With significant political transformations in Eastern European countries, there is a need for a more coherent approach. Differentiated policies should apply to the countries of the region, while the whole strategy of the EU should be more problemoriented. 3. Negotiations with Ukraine over the Association Agreement demonstrate the consequences of the lack of coherence in the EU, while the dilemma of whether to sign the agreement in Vilnius remains difficult. From the point of view of its normative influence, the EU should continue pressing Ukraine to keep up its development of democratic standards. However, from a geopolitical perspective and for economic reasons, the agreement should be signed in November 2013. 4. At the same time, supporting democratic development in Ukraine remains a key task regardless of whether the agreement will be signed. This should be carried out simultaneously at different levels. The EU should continue political and economic pressure while making its visa regulations as liberal as possible for Ukrainians. Civil society institutions in Ukraine should be strengthened both from within and with active international assistance.

Conclusions The current EU-Ukrainian partnership is being disturbed by a number of developments. The EU is suffering from economic and financial crises and faces political uncertainty. Ukraine is still far from economic recovery, burdened with energy inefficiency and weakened democratic standards. The once clear decisiveness of both parties to sign the Association Agreement as a tool for further integration is now being questioned. Several things remain principally important. First, Ukraineâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s deeper cooperation with the EU is economically beneficial for both parties and creates huge opportunities for the future. Secondly, the normative power of the EU should not be undermined. Instead it could be further applied for intensifying democratic transformations in neighboring countries. Thirdly, the Association Agreement with Ukraine could become a part of a broader and more coherent strategy towards Eastern neighbors.

6th Đ&#x161;yiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS PARALLEL SESSION A. FREEDOM OF THE MEDIA – MAKING PEOPLE SECURE? • • • • •

Censorship: new generation media vs traditional. How does it work? Free media – driving force for change? Journalists and diplomats: free media and security. Independent journalism. Survival Guide. Ukraine: Information wants to be free?

THE THREATS TO FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION IN THE INTERNET ARE AS STRONG AS THEY EVER WERE There are several forms of censorship. There is what I call black and white censorship, the type you see in authoritarian states, that you see in states where there is organized crime, and that is where journalists, activists, bloggers are forcibly imprisoned or are killed or are in some other way John KAMPFNER suppressed. There is, however, another International Journalist, writer, form of censorship, which is much more Google Adviser on censorship subtle. It’s what I call “the shades of and culture of expression grey”. This is where business interests (Great Britain) or other interests combine, leading journalists to self-censor or restrict what that say voluntarily. Their lives may not be in danger, but their interests and the interests of their employers may be threatened. Governments are using social media for the projection of their own opinions just as smartly as their opponents. They are also using new media tools for surveillance, data capture, and tracking people. It is quite remarkable how quickly the balance of power has gone back to the world before the Internet, where governments could control the message much more easily. There is a big push by Russia and China, and by a number of other countries, of a

6th Кyiv Security Forum

Đ&#x161;YIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS more authoritative nature to change Internet governance. I fear that we are in danger of it happening again. The Internet has been and will continue to be a hugely emancipating tool particularly in the developing world; we are soon going to see five billion people online. So many are migrating to smart phones and other personal devices and away from personal computers; the opportunities for individuals and for communities in this area are immense. However, the threats in terms of freedom of expression are as strong now as they ever were.

6th Đ&#x161;yiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

I BELIEVE THAT A GOOD JOURNALIST CAN CHANGE THE WORLD I have always believed that a good journalist researches the background that explores not only what, but why things take place in the areas of democracy, human rights, and national security. I believe in a style of journalism that monitors like a watchdog. That watchdog journalism is investigative journalism. Watchdog journalists are a special group of people that act as a protector or guardian against the inefficiencies of illegal practices and corruption. I believe a journalist is to be a guardian of truth.

Anabel HERNANDEZ Mexican Journalist, Winner of “Golden Feather of Freedom”

As journalists, we have to study how men and women in power harass, and attempt to censor, in order to know how to defend freedom of expression in the news media, otherwise we betray the trust of society placed in us. Our intellectual work is not at the service of the powerful owners of the media. It is at the service of the people. Corruption grows with silence. Journalists have the duty to break that silence and bring those stories of corruption to society, so they know the truth and make their own decisions about those who change the destiny of a country. I believe that good journalists can change the world. I really believe that.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

IF THE PRESS OPERATES FREELY, IT IS THE WAY TO GET THE STREAM OF INFORMATION OUT, IN ORDER TO MAKE A SOCIETY STABLE The courts seem to evaluate every time there is a case involving freedom of speech. There are two main principles. The first one is the protection of privacy and the other is the freedom of expression. Especially before Finland Markku MANTILA joined the European Union in 1995, the courts usually ruled in favor of the Editor-in-Chief of the Kavela protection of privacy, but now, after newspaper, Winner of the a number of complaints coming from Finnish Grand Prize for the European Court of Human Rights, Journalism (Finland) things have changed. So the scope of press freedom is wider than ever and I think that our situation in Finland is very much like that in most other western countries. There is some fear that the funding of the national broadcasting company will be cut and it will kill some of the newspapers. For Finland it means that the possibilities to express your opinion might be narrower than it is today. The printed media is in deep trouble. We are facing structural changes: people are leaving the print media and going to the Internet. I really expect that newspapers will be closing in a couple of years. Why is freedom of the press so important in international relations? Once freedom of the press is in place, it affects everything in the society. Imagine that you have a kettle with boiling water in it, so the steam has to come out somehow. If the press operates freely, it’s the way to get the steam out, to make the society stable, more prosperous, more predictable.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

THERE IS NO FREE MEDIA IN A SOCIETY THAT IS NOT FREE OVERALL These are, first of all, problems of a cultural worldview, pertaining to the control over our activities and those connected to a lack of freedom which the Ukrainian media is facing today. They are not technological problems, which are the ones the Western world faces today. Nowadays Ukraine is placed in a position Vitaliy PORTNIKOV that its media can hardly answer this main question of our discussion – the President, TVi Channel security question. Because the mission of (Ukraine) journalism is to be a power controller, this is rarely understood in Ukraine because there are press-services to tell about the achievements, successes and good results of the government, and other media exists to tell about drawbacks, corruption, abuse, and fraud. The problem is that in case of the complete absence of an independent judicial system, the complete absence of proper social reaction, the certain absence of efficient legislative power, and contempt from the side of executive power, disclosure of even the most scandalous information changes nothing. Free media is not possible in a society that is not free overall. This is why journalists and society have to develop, so to say, in parallel and in symbiosis, and journalists have to do everything possible in order to change the climate in the society, and the society itself has to make every endeavor to change the situation with the media.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

SUMMARY PAPER PARALLEL SESSION A. FREEDOM OF THE MEDIA – MAKING PEOPLE SECURE? Freedom of speech and its component, freedom of the media, have been gaining more and more significance as key elements of information security in an information society era. The discussion about the current situation, problems in this domain and ways to solve it became the topic of one of the discussion panels during KSF-6. Experts from various countries having different situations regarding the freedom of the media became speakers on this panel, and they agreed with the fact that for the time being Ukraine is placed in a group of problematic countries according to this negative situation.

Serhiy SYDORENKO Special Correspondent, Newspaper “Kommersant” (Ukraine)

“I would like to refute the idea that there is freedom of speech in Ukraine, because freedom of speech is freedom of access. Most citizens of Ukraine have access to television broadcasting, which is controlled by the authorities, but not Internet resources”, – Vitaliy Portnikov, the President of the TVI channel (Ukraine), emphasized. Not everyone of the audience agreed with such a tough position, but no one objected to the problems which were stated, among which an insufficient public demand for quality news is reporting. Even though the idea that the absence of demand for such reporting in Ukraine was uttered, some experts called upon the audience not to leave the role of civil society in making news available unnoticed. “Such a simplistic picture (the absence of society pressure – Edit.) may appear closer to the truth, but in my opinion we still have certain networks that stand for quality in journalism, presenting the news both formally and informally in the Internet”, believes Natalia Belitser, expert from the Pylyp Orlyk Institute for Democracy. How can the situation with the freedom of the media be improved? Of course, there is no universal method. However, an additional problem is that even among

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS experts there is no clear agreement regarding the definition of a “safe limit” of interference into media reporting, namely the line beyond, which censorship starts. A major part of the discussion by experts at KSF-6 was devoted to this issue. “There are several forms of censorship. One of them I call “black and white” censorship – this is what’s taking place in authoritarian countries, where journalists, activists, bloggers are sent to prison, or even killed, or oppressed in other ways… There is also another type of censorship that can be called “the shades of grey”. It takes place when business or other interests spur a journalist voluntarily to limit himself in his expressions, without feeling danger to the journalist’s life”, – John Kampfner, British journalist and writer, Advisor to Google on freedom of expression and culture, believes. At the same time, not every restriction of freedom of speech – either initiated by an editor or publisher, or initiated by the state – may be considered censorship, Mr. Kampfner recognized. According to him, the story of the breaking into the voice mail crime victims and their relatives in Britain, which led to the closure of the News of the World tabloid in 2011, became an evident example of the justification of certain restrictions. The opinion of European experts contrasted with some other speakers, particularly Ukrainian ones, and here the relationship turned out to be reversed. While the media people from the countries, where the media are considered free are loyal to moderate state regulatory controls of media activities, their peer colleagues from the countries that do not have such a free environment, appeared to be radically set against any kind of state involvement in news media regulation, calling for an exclusively market regulated reporting environment. “The government has no right to control the media; only society has such a right. People can simply switch to another TV channel, radio station, or do not have to open a website if they do not like work of the journalist of specific media”, Anabel Hernandez, Mexican journalist, award-winner of the ‘Golden Feather of Freedom’ insists. However, the market mechanisms do not always appear efficient to ensure freedom of speech, according to Vlad Miksich, Senior Editor of the Romanian HotNews.ro website. “The print media in Romania are dying very quickly, news websites do not have sufficiently large enough coverage compared to television. At the same time, five out of the six news channels belong to oligarchs, who are involved in politics”. As a result, even in the absence of government control, censorship acquires ‘a touch of grey’ in the leading media. “Generally, the TV news in Romania is not a mass communication medium,

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

but a propaganda medium. As a consequence, the Romanian population has started losing trust in the media completely”, the Romanian journalist noted. The KSF-6 participants agreed that the situation as described and the complications as mentioned are highly typical also to Ukraine. “Sometimes the mistakes of an editor have led to a complete loss of trust in very respectable publications. Lately, young people more often look to Facebook and Twitter to get information”, Vitaliy Portnikov declared. “We all are aware that in our business it takes many years to create a reputation as a reliable source of information. However you can lose everything that has been acquired in less than no time”, added Markku Mantila, who is a laureate of the Finish GrandPrix for Journalism, Editor-in-Chief of Kavela newspaper. The Finish recipe for fighting against poor quality and biased journalism is simple. “I advise you to invest in the education of your journalists, and send them overseas”, Mr. Mantila suggested as a way of solving this problem. However, the scenario acceptable to the countries with free media does not work in problematic regions. “In Ukraine, even after disclosure of the most scandalous information, nothing changes. Because of that, people in my profession are not motivated to perform their work well”, Mr. Portnikov indicated. During the discussion panel, the Ukrainian and European experts came to the conclusion that under to the present situation in Ukraine, the transformation into a country with free media cannot be ensured even by an accelerated accession of Ukraine into the European Union, although it can become “the first step towards recovery”. “It will be wonderful if Ukraine will move towards the European Union. However I am not too optimistic (with regard to consequences), since even at the present time many members of the European Union are far from ideal. This refers particularly to Hungary, where media legislation has been changed from a few years ago. Therefore, merely membership in the EU does not ensure freedom of expression”, – John Kampfner declared. According to Vitaliy Portnikov, the only way to systematically solve this problem is a gradual and parallel evolution of both the media society and all levels of the population, which can push each other alternately to the next level in terms of compliance with standards of democracy and free media. “Journalists and the society at large have to develop, so to say, in parallel and in symbiosis. Otherwise we will be at a deadlock”, the Ukrainian newsman and media manager is convinced. “The media does not operate in a vacuum”, – John Kampfner seconded him.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

Policy Recommendations The experts do not question the existence of problems regarding freedom of speech. There is a consensus that quick changes are not possible here, therefore any efforts undertaken should have a long-term character. It is important that the understanding of the term ‘censorship’ in Ukraine differs from the rest of the world. The Ukrainian market participants consider it to be censorship even with regulatory controls of the state which are acceptable to the West. Therefore it is realistic that even with positive changes the perception of the level of media freedom will be underrated, so to accurately measure progress it is better to find other more objective indicators.

The policy recommendations are as follows:

100

Considering the existence in Ukraine of both an obviously biased media, and one that is institutionally associated with the government and other actors, as well as with those who can afford a much greater level of independence, it seems that the support of an independent media and journalists is justified. It will enable them to increase product quality and enable them to compete more effectively without looking for biased sources of financing.

Tools may also include internship abroad, further training, encouraging support for creative workers as well as the programmes of indirect support for editors in general. It is reasonable to consider legislative enactment of tax incentives for the media that would allow independent media and news persons to maintain an existence.

Given the trend of transforming the media into a platform for information warfare, efforts are also needed to increase the accountability of journalists and editors, including by the means of regulatory leverages. At the same time, an introduction of regulatory mechanisms will require maximum precautions since it is associated with the risk of becoming a mechanism for censorship.

One of the most influential positive factors is public demand for adequate and impartial information, which is why educational efforts to create such a demand among the wider population are welcome.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

101

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS PARALLEL SESSION B. CYBER REVOLUTION: EGALITE, LIBERTE, FRATERNITE? • Growing importance of cyber security: are we ready to face the future? • State, business, society = teamwork? • Social Networks: life under the microscope. Global reality show. • Virtual reality affecting physical reality: US-Mexico case study. • Cyber security on the EU agenda.

WE NEED TO THINK AS BROADLY AND AS GLOBALLY AS POSSIBLE The Internet is a global computer utility, it has no borders. While it is very important to have strategies that will protect a particular country, we also need to harmonize the goals that we have internally with an international approach. Today we have approximately 8 billion Internet-connected devices and in 2020 it is expected there will be 100 billion Director of Cloud Security Internet-connected devices. The growth Alliance (USA) will take place in cloud computing, with huge amounts of data, and in the amount of people using social networks, social media, and communications, etc. It is becoming quite impossible to see where one country leaves off and the rest of the world continues.

Jim REAVIS

In five years cloud computing will change greatly. Cloud computing is reshaping every industry, financial services, etc. The main challenge is to develop regulations and standards. We need to look at the concept of cyber security beyond governments, we need to look at communities. We absolutely encourage Ukraine, as well as the

102

6th Кyiv Security Forum

Đ&#x161;YIV SECURITY FORUM

European Union to think as broadly and as globally as possible and align itself with international standards bodies to develop the practices that can best protect that computer utility of the future. It is very important for us to look at many things in terms of technology, in terms of predictive analysis, to be able to see trends and to able to connect them with what might happen in the future. We need to look into the future. Information needs to be free, and is very dynamic, so we need to think much more virtually about how things operate. All of us need to be avatars ourselves.

6th Đ&#x161;yiv Security Forum

103

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

EFFECTIVE INTERACTION BETWEEN CITIZENS, GOVERNMENT, AND PROFESSIONALS – A PRECONDITION FOR CYBER SECURITY

Kostyantyn KORSUN Head of the Council of the Ukrainian Information Security Group

There are two aspects to mention: anonymity and privacy. On the one hand, these allow freedom of expression in the Internet, support democratic principles, but on the other hand anonymity and privacy are used in cyber crimes. Having the right balance between these two aspects is extremely important for any country, and Ukraine as well, because information technology and cyber crime

don’t have borders in today’s world. Cyber security within any country is the interaction between the citizens of that country (those who are most at risk in the Internet), governmental structures, the police, and the community of professionals in information security. If all these elements will interact effectively – we can resist current challenges. However, governmental structures and the police are often protecting their own interests, not the interest of individuals. Therefore, the community of information security professionals is there to protect society as a whole, in concert with responsible governmental structures.

104

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

GOOD SECURITY IS ABOUT EDUCATING THE USER, MAKING HIM AWARE Security is not antivirus software, because first of all security is not about a product. Security is first about people, then process and technology. The whole idea is that good security is about educating a user, making a user aware. The more we use technology, the more we build technological systems, which rely on computers, the more we are going to be dependent on information and communication technology, and so these systems are going to be attacked with greater intensity.

Ilias CHANTZOS Senior Director of Government Affairs – Europe, Middle East & Africa and Asia Pacific & Japan Regions, Symantec Corporation (Belgium)

In the past cyber security was about people launching attacks to irritate you. After 2005 we saw a major shift. Cyber attacks started to become less and less massive. The objective became to steal valuable information and sell it, or to take valuable things like credit card numbers and other personal data. Cyber security has become a very political problem. Cyber crime is being used as a tool to do intelligence collection, attack countries, etc. Some examples of this are in Estonia in 2007 and in Georgia in 2009. Also, cyber crime is used to do sabotage. As a result, countries are beginning to realize, why they need to integrate a cyber defense concept into their national security strategy. The key point for me is that politicians are now interested in cyber crime, and also understand the geopolitical component. The possibilities are endless in terms of trying to figure out the possible areas of attacks. This is why it is good to say we need to be predictive and we try to be predictive, and we have the technology, the knowledge, the infrastructure, the analysis and we use all of that.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

105

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

HOW CAN ONE ENSURE THAT THE PRIVATE SECTOR, AND NOT JUST ITS BUSINESS SECTOR, INVESTS IN CYBER SECURITY?

Vinayak GODSE Director of the Data Security Council of India (India)

The increasing militarization of cyber space is provoking governments across the globe to look at cyber attacks critically. Control of cyber security was once generally under ministries like the Department of Information Technology, but now in the last two years we have seen that the coordination mechanism of security is moving to the national security functions of the government.

The cyber security has become the fifth domain of national security (traditional domains – air, land, space and sea). This cyber domain is now the most challenging domain in terms of national security. The problem is that in many countries, as in India, the critical share of communication technology and networks are owned by the private sector. How can one ensure that the private sector, and not just its business sector, invests in security? On the other hand, how do you ensure that public sector, which is close to new trends, can ensure cyber security? Legal regulation is an important aspect, but the question is how much regulatory pressure government can impose on business.

106

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

IF THE PROCESS OF SHARING INFORMATION IS NOT WORKING WELL – THE WINNER IS THE CRIMINAL Concerning the Wikileaks scandal case and its influence on US-Mexican relations, when some diplomatic communications were leaked to the public, this is part of the freedom of information philosophy that we need in a democracy. This is also a case where there is no profit interest, but a case of a philosophy of freedom of information. Their attack on the computers of the Department of State was not for money, but a kind of philosophy of freedom. But I understand clearly that governments need to keep some secrets, and that communications taken from embassies are conspiratorial.

Raúl BENITEZ-MANAUT President of the NGO “Colectivo de Análisis de la Seguridad con Democracia” (Меxico)

Who is the winner between the Mexican government and the US government in this crisis? The winner is the criminal, because the security relationship between two governments has become frozen, and the process of sharing information is not working well. If the Mexican president doesn’t have a good relationship with an ambassador, then again the winner is the criminal.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

107

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS

WE SHOULD STOP THE DIGITAL ARMS TRADE THAT HARMS THE RIGHTS AND FREEDOMS OF CITIZENS GLOBALLY Everything today seems to be cyber – cyber taxes, cyber criminals, cyber security, cyber police, cyber war. But we should be careful not to make “cyber” an ailing concept, distinct from reality with its own set of rules and standards.

Marietje SCHAAKE Member of the European Parliament, Member of Board of European Internet Foundation (the Netherlands)

Last February, the European Commission launched its long-awaited Cyber Security Strategy as a first step towards an EUwide approach. It is an assessment of the status quo, much more than a strategy that looks forward and takes measures.

The EU should be very careful of blowback from the technology that we export ourselves, especially to authoritarian regimes. Tools used for communication, surveillance, and the tracking of individuals in other countries can also be used effectively as weapons. We should stop the digital arms trade that harms the rights and freedoms of citizens globally. Governments and businesses alike should work together to protect societies and citizens, while, at the same time, preserving the global open Internet. We must mainstream and coordinate our efforts and ensure democratic oversights, and that the fundamental rights of citizens are preserved. We must defend an open Internet, both from attacks from the outside, as well as from erosion from within as a result of misguided measures.

108

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

SUMMARY PAPER PARALLEL SESSION B. CYBER SECURITY: EGALITE, LIBERTE, FRATERNITE? Largest trends in information technology – mobile technology, social technology, cloud and big data. In 2013 we have 8 billion connected electronic devices, and this number is predicted to grow to 120 billion in 2020. We are globally underestimating how they will change the world. The way people connect, work, play, and engage in society is changing dramatically – and we are not well prepared. The more we use this technology, the more we build a world that depends on technology – the more these forms of technology will be under attack.

Ihor MALCHENYUK Cyber Security Expert (Ukraine)

Security breaches happen where there is valuable data, as in commercial banks and credit card companies, industrial facilities like energy or chemical companies, or in national entities. Cyber attacks are increasingly massive and global, and they have been recently economically and politically motivated, like the cyber attacks on Estonia in 2007, on Georgia in 2008, the sabotage on Iranian nuclear stations in 2010, and recent attacks on oil platforms and gas transportation systems. According to the Symantec Internet Security Threat Report, targeted attacks increased by 42% in 2012, with 12 attacks taking place per second on average, including attacks on mobile devices. Attacks are sophisticated, socially engineered and multi-vectored. Cyber security is no longer simply keeping computer viruses out of the door. Responses to breaches and vulnerabilities are important, but that alone doesn’t keep us ahead of the curve. As the world moves to cloud technology, providing IT users with a secure, private, and reliable computing experience will be more important than ever.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

109

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS Cyber crime is international. In a globally connected world that transcends traditional jurisdictions and nation states – we need a new way of policy making and securing rights and freedoms, as well as democratic oversight. Cyber security is the key domain of national security in many countries, including India. The Cyber Security Department was transferred from the Ministry of Information to the National Security domain. A key national security program, the “National Security Office”, was established to coordinate cyber security in both the public and business sectors. For example, even though 90% of network usage is private, the business sector invests into its security. Jointly then, this investment affects many countries worldwide as India is doing business and delivering services to more than 90 countries. Cyber security is about the protection of human rights, freedom, democratic trust, transparency, and the protection of society from attacks from both outside a country and from within. Most of the biggest cloud providers treat transparency seriously and publishing what data is requested by authorities. However, transparency in public affairs can cause political issues. This has been clearly seen from the US-Mexico case study: Wikileaks published about 300,000 documents within 2 years, and about 2400 of these documents were related to Mexico. Most of these documents were neutral, but some diplomatic cables caused a major political crisis between the US and Mexico; the relationships between the two countries were basically frozen for almost 2 years and the US Ambassador resigned. There is a need for government agencies like embassies to keep secret communications. Each government must decide the level of transparency needed for itself. Governments and businesses should work together in protection while preserving a globally open Internet. It is important also to establish proper cooperation between authorities (enforcement) and the community at large. A community should operate just as neighbors watch over the homes of each other. Community means policing providers, communicating about hackers, etc. Traditionally the principle actors in cyber security have been governments (especially, security agencies), businesses (especially, IT companies), and society (communities and individuals). It is also important to identify criminals (especially, international criminal organizations) as a strong force in the field of cyber security.

110

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

Security Recommendations for Individuals: 1. Use modern technologies like social networks and mobile computing responsibly but without unneeded limitations – do not avoid your future. 2. Use up-to-date antivirus software. It helps protect the computers from malicious software (malware) and can be downloaded or installed inexpensively or at no charge. Still, according to recent findings in the Microsoft Security Intelligence Report, 24 percent of computers worldwide were not running up-to-date antivirus software, leaving them 5.5 times more likely to be infected with viruses. 3. Protect and encrypt your data. Do not underestimate what value your own personal data has – it could be used for socially engineered targeted attacks, to compromise the workstations of operators in a critical infrastructure, or to create an army of botnet computers for distributed cyber attacks. 4. Learn the best practices and recommendations. Do not limit your protection to using a specific boxed product or security technology. Information security includes people skills and knowledge, like user education, and knowing the process of how and what to do if something happens.

Policy Recommendations: 1. Include cyber security as the key domain of a national security strategy. The EU, US, India, China, Australia, Japan, and Singapore have developed cyber security strategies and introduced appropriate topics into national security programs. 2. Develop national regulations and standards for cyber security a. Inhibit the development of crime by using strong international standards, frameworks and initiatives; at least harmonize/ synchronize the taxonomy. We don’t expect traditional international organizations and alliances like NATO to centralize and lead in the area of setting the international cyber security standards. b. Keep the standards and regulations technologically neutral and adequately non-specific. They should focus on ultimate results and

6th Кyiv Security Forum

111

Đ&#x161;YIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS should not describe how specific things are done. c. Introduce proactive and predictive approaches into the development of national regulations. Traditionally, the security industry has developed by responding to cases and breaches that had already happened in the past, so all the laws and policies tend to be reactive in nature. 3. Ukraine needs to appropriately develop all cyber security services including defense, protection, detection, response, and recovery to cover both the civilian and national defense sectors and properly deal with cyber crime, electronic espionage, data protection, and forensics. Ukraine, as does every country, has to decide whether or not it needs to develop offensive capacities.

112

6th Đ&#x161;yiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR UKRAINE (DEVELOPED DURING WORK OF TASK – FORCE MEETING WITHIN 6TH KYIV SECURITY FORUM) The conclusions of this task force were impressively coherent, given the tight time constraints (90 minutes) and an ambitious assignment: to identify the five most urgent practical challenges to Ukraine’s national security. Equally impressive was the degree of consensus achieved across national lines (one third of the members being non-Ukrainian). Professionalism supplied the basis of this cohesion. All of the task force members were distinguished defence and security service professionals or independent James SHERR experts, the vast majority of them ‘above party’ and political factions. To facilitate Associate Fellow, The Royal the preparation of this report, each Institute of International participant was asked on an anonymous Affairs, Chatham House basis to record his or her list of priorities (Great Britain) in writing and submit them to the rapporteur. Although the rapporteur has done his utmost to reflect the tone and substance of the discussions, the report also reflects his own views, and he alone bears responsibility for its content. The difficulty of placing the most urgent issues under five headings should not be ignored. Understandably, the challenges that had second-order significance to some participants were identified by others as priorities in their own right. Inevitably, priorities overlap, and no apology is made for this. The task force was in general agreement that the problems faced by Ukraine are systemic, integrated, and comprehensive in nature. On the one hand, this means that robust and well-crafted reforms in one sphere can strengthen the state’s capacity to overcome inertia and obstruction in others. But it also means that the state cannot allow itself, by design or inadvertence, to uphold good and bad practice simultaneously. Incongruity in policy (and between ‘programmes’ and implementation) has been Ukraine’s chronic failing. Too often in Ukraine’s recent history, good initiatives have unravelled either because they were not 6th Кyiv Security Forum

113

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS consolidated, were implemented inconsistently or because they were not defended against those who wanted them to fail.

Priorities Although a majority of the task forced identified good governance as Ukraine’s overriding priority, there was no consensus about how the others should be ranked in importance. It is not our intent to construct such a hierarchy here. All five priorities should be seen as primary and interdependent. 1. Good governance. Key words: rule of law, legitimacy, trust, accountability, checks and balances, effective institutions, coordination, strategic management. Today, Ukraine’s state is not fit for its intended purpose. It is the instrument of ‘groups of interest’ rather than the guardian of the national interest. Across the political spectrum, it is seen by growing numbers of people as undemocratic in ethos and practice. Although its key stakeholders often act arbitrarily and with impunity, it is at the same time a ‘weak state’, unable to unite the country or carry out tasks of national importance. Over the past ten years, many of Ukraine’s core institutions have become de-professionalised, and many important decisions are made outside them, without benefit of public and expert discussion. There is an alarming deficit of gosudarstvenniki [state-builders] in the country. Such a state lacks firm foundations of legitimacy and is most unlikely to meet the test of ‘pulling [the country] together at a crucial moment’. Priorities to be addressed: Rule of Law: Law does not consist of a thicket of impenetrable regulations (pace Francoise Thom, ‘a system of codified arbitrariness’), but a coherent and comprehensible system based upon the ‘unity of primary and secondary rules’ (HLA Hart) binding on all citizens ‘from the boyar to the poorest blind man’ [ot boyar do nishchego spetsa]. 1 It presupposes a judiciary that acts in accordance with legal rather than political norms and which is protected from those who would corrupt it. To be effective, the law must be enforceable. It must be acceptable to the vast majority of those who must observe it, and it must be observable by ordinary people living in ordinary (and far from ideal) circumstances. It also must provide equal protection. The law should not have retroactive authority (it should not punish actions that were legal at the time they took place), and defendants should not be tried twice for the same offence. If it does 1

Mussorgsky, Boris Godunov, Prologue.

114

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

115

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS not meet these criteria, the law itself will breed new forms of lawlessness (see ‘National Economy’); Integrity of the Democratic Process: The constitution must be founded upon immutable rights and countervailing powers (‘checks and balances’) that provide mechanisms of accountability and safeguards for personal liberty. The political system must be designed to ensure that the electorate is represented by those who emerge from it, rather than those who have bought and bribed their path to power. It must create a level playing field between government and opposition before, during, and after elections. However strong the majority, the law must provide equal protection to minorities in the economic as well as the political sphere. [Note: 1) Whereas some participants believed that a ‘law on opposition’ would strengthen these safeguards, others feared that it could be used to weaken them; 2) Equal rights in the cultural and religious spheres were not discussed]. Institutional Effectiveness and Strategic Management: State institutions must have the authority and competence to ensure implementation and oversight of government policy in ways that maintain public trust. To these ends, they must be public institutions rather than personal fiefdoms or servants of financially-driven, clan-based interests. They must be staffed by qualified, politically neutral (and properly remunerated) professionals, imbued with an ethos of rightful conduct. Political heads of state bodies and services must be individuals of standing, appointed to ensure democratic accountability. Lines of ministerial and departmental responsibility must be clear and unencumbered by intermediaries and smotryashchie of no legal provenance. The re-establishment of effective parliamentary commissions and a high-level, inter-departmental planning and coordinating process under the auspices of the CabMin Secretariat and RNBO is essential. [Personal comment: The key accomplishments of the 1990s (e.g. introduction of the hryvnya, the 1997 Black Sea Fleet accords, the Distinctive Partnership with NATO) were strategic undertakings. In contrast the ‘resolution’ of the 2006 gas crisis was a back-of-the-envelope affair bypassing the RNBO. The 2009 gas crisis (which alienated international partners and imposed crippling burdens on the economy) was driven from inception to conclusion by pecuniary interests and discord at the highest level. Poor coordination weakened Ukraine’s hand in the 2008 WTO negotiations. Both the 2010 Kharkiv accords and the law on nonbloc status emerged with precipitate haste and without proper discussion]. Defence and Security Sector Reform. The minimum, but primary purpose of national defence forces is to establish an unmistakeable demarcation line

116

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

between internal jurisdiction and the outside world.2 Their secondary purpose is to contribute to the management of regional conflicts, independently or jointly, in ways that strengthen the confidence of partners in Ukraine’s intentions and capacity. To these ends, defence forces must be well motivated, properly trained, modern and deployable. Deficient armed forces add to other factors that make it difficult to keep internal and external affairs apart. Poor management of military property, munitions, fuels and raw materials, not to say service personnel can be a source of internal threats in their own right (social, economic and technogenic). (See ‘Economic Management’ and ‘Energy Security’). Therefore, the financial provision of such forces and their sound management is a requirement of good governance. The primary purpose of security, counter-intelligence and law enforcement bodies is to defend the legal and constitutional order against those inside the country who would threaten it, whether their provenance be domestic or foreign. Their complementary, day-to-day task is to protect the citizen rather than prey upon him. No responsible state can allow the police to become an adjunct of the criminal classes. Preventing this demands a quality of management, professionalism, and financial provision that does not exist in Ukraine and which must be established as a matter of national survival. In any country, security and law enforcement are on the cutting edge of the relationship between state and society, the law and the criminal, and hence they are subject to all of the strains and distortions inherent in these relationships. In Ukraine these strains are becoming dangerous and, to a growing number of citizens, intolerable. 2. Rebuild social cohesion and national consciousness. Key words: ‘national idea’, civil society, regional divisions, marginalisation, alienation, radicalisation, collapse. The Ukrainian state described in the 1996 Constitution is a nation-state, but not an ethno-national state. It is a state for ‘all Ukrainians’, irrespective of their ethnic background, religious affiliation or language of choice. Its ethos–civic, democratic and tolerant–is not only in keeping with EU norms but Ukraine’s cultural inheritance, and in the 1990s this ethos was a point of cohesion and attraction–not least of all in the West, which at the time of the Balkan and Chechen wars was impressed by the absence of ethnic conflict in the country. Within the past ten years, these urbanities and tolerances have frayed under the impact of divide-and-rule policies, coarsening political rhetoric, the 2 In the words of a General Staﬀ assessment (Rear Admiral Yuriy Shalyt, 28 August 1997), ‘in local conflicts or national disasters…set up a zone which would make it possible to direct or influence the processes occurring outside it’.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

117

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

118

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

rawness of life and loss of faith in those for whom the citizens have voted. Whereas ‘alienation’ once described attitudes to the state, it is now expanding to ‘the other’, whether defined in regional, ethnic or linguistic terms. Radical movements and radical moods–nativist, anti-modern, Russophobe (or alternatively, Russo-chauvinist)–are filling part of this vacuum, but for the most part it is not being filled. These mutating forms of alienation (and growing signs of anomie)3 raise two security questions. First, if today’s outbursts of anger spill over into civil conflict, who will the authorities talk to, and how will beleaguered and unreformed security structures behave? In 2004 the authorities faced a movement with recognised leaders. In 200X they might face a mob. Second, how will social schism and state fracture play into the hands of those who seek to undermine Ukraine’s samostoyatel’nost’ (‘ability to stand’)? [Personal comment: While there are also dynamics of alienation/radicalisation at work in Greece and to a lesser extent in Hungary, neither of these countries face an existential threat to their statehood.] Priorities to be addressed: There was an implicit division in the task force between those who emphasised the importance of formulating a national idea (the term ‘national ideology’ was not used) and those who felt that only the establishment of effective, representative institutions (‘good governance’) would restore social cohesion and public trust. [Personal comment: A longer discussion might also have considered, alongside alienation, the rebirth of civic activism after a period of dormancy: e.g. public response to the winter 1913 snow emergency. Does that episode or the anti-police riot in Vradiyevka point the way to the future?] 3. De-monopolise and de-criminalise the national economy. Key words: corruption, shadow structures, competition, efficiency, national revenue, tax system, economic mobilisation and security. Ukraine’s economy is losing the ability to produce national wealth and reward for honest work. The regulatory system, like the legal system itself, is a charter of harassment for every power in the land. The tax system disenfranchises entrepreneurship and talent, and it penalises success. Property rights are flimsy and, in the face of well connected predators, meaningless. An increasing proportion of business is devoted to non-economic activity: buying patronage, reaching ‘understandings’ with inspectors and avoiding the attention of shadow authorities who, like Dzerzhinsky’s chekisty, are beyond the reach 3

which sociologists define as lack of social or ethical standards in an individual or group.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

119

Đ&#x161;YIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS of any law. The system of preferences and hidden subsidies rewards loyalty, encourages inefficiency, distorts the price system and crushes competition. It is also economically unsustainable. Priorities to be addressed: Dissolve the merger of money and power. In no state can money and power be entirely separated. But no state can uphold law or liberty if the two are fused together. To prevent this, the relationship must be codified in law (subject to clear rules) and rendered transparent. Disclosure of income, wealth and business interests of politicians, high officials (and their families) must be rigorous. Lines of budgetary responsibility must be clear and open to scrutiny. Subsidies should be provided only when the public good demands it; they should be granted on a generic rather than preferential basis and subject to the approval of parliament. Contracts for government services should be awarded not by ministers, but by technical experts on the basis of competitive tender. Establish a level playing field between economic entities on the basis of property rights, open competition and sanctity of contract.4 Incentivise (through registration procedures, licensing codes and taxation) the formation of small businesses and the expansion of small enterprise.5 Enshrine the principle of choice for buyer and seller. Confine monopoly to domains where national security requires it. Establish a robust and progressive taxation system, administered by honest professionals rather than political appointees. The system should encourage enterprise, investment and wealth creation. It should be designed to make it more attractive to pay taxes than evade them. The tax administration must possess the tools and means to uncover hidden sources of revenue and schemes of tax avoidance, and it should be afforded the full cooperation of security and counter-intelligence services. Enforcement efforts should be focused on serious abuses rather than minor infractions. [Note: Lustration was not discussed, but the rapporteur believes that officials with a record of abuse should be removed from the tax administration and other bodies of power.]

4 It is a recognised principle that contracts concluded under duress do not bind and that no contract binds in perpetuity. Best practice makes provision for amending contracts and withdrawing from them. 5 In most EU countries, small businesses do not pay taxes until at least their second full year of incorporation.

120

6th Đ&#x161;yiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

4. Strengthen energy security. Key words: inefficiency, high energy consumption, underdevelopment of domestic resources, bypass pipelines and threats to independence of Gas Transit System. Energy remains a source of threat to Ukraine’s national security. Despite a per capita GDP almost ten times less than that of the UK, Ukraine’s per capita energy consumption is almost 90 per cent of the latter’s.6 The defining features of its energy ‘market’ are not competitive pressure or cost effectiveness, but collusive interests, opaque ownership structures, concealed financial transfers and administratively determined prices. The subsidy of such a primary commodity as energy distorts the pricing mechanism across the whole of the economy and risks divorcing economic decisions from commercial reality. The regulatory system–a museum of contradictions and torments–is an added brake on investment and the development of indigenous resources. Unlike their predecessors, the current authorities have made serious efforts to reduce gas imports and conclude framework agreements for new exploration. But their intentions are undermined by systemic factors they have done nothing to change, by Russian bypass pipelines (which diminish Ukraine’s transit leverage) and by difficulties of their own making, not least the Kharkiv accords, whose ‘discount’ formula has saddled Ukraine with some of the highest gas prices in Europe. In consequence, Ukraine faces unremitting pressure to accede to the Eurasian Customs Union and surrender the Gas Transit System or at least its de facto management. In no other sphere is the tension between the interests of power and those of the country more blatant or dangerous. Priorities to be addressed: Create an open and competitive internal energy market. The short-term consequences of eliminating subsidies can be overcome more easily than the longer-term consequences of retaining them. Offset the negatives by aggressive tax reform, by incentives to enterprises that undertake efficiency measures, by competitive tendering to modernise infrastructure and by more fundamental measures of economic and administrative reform (sm. ‘National Economy’) Rebuild the regulatory system. The regulatory environment must become comprehensible and friendly. Exploration and production agreements with foreign energy companies must be tamper-proof. Rent-seeking and imposed partnerships must be replaced by a transparent schedule of fees and taxes. 6

Figures are from the World Bank: on per capita GDP from 2011-12 and energy consumption from 2010. One should bear in mind that Ukraine’s real GDP is almost certainly higher than the oﬃcial figure owing to the volume of concealed income in the country.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

121

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

EXPERT FOCUS Ukraine will not alter its image as a ‘mafia state’ by PR, but by action. It can no longer afford to alienate foreign investors. Give substance to the principles of the Energy Charter and Energy Community. Repair the damage caused to Ukraine’s reputation by the 2008-9 gas crisis. Study the provisions and the spirit of the EU’s Third Energy Package with a view to becoming a contributor to European energy security rather than a problem. Launch a national campaign to overcome the culture of waste and dependency. Mobilise experts and constituencies who are committed to bringing Ukraine’s energy sector into line with international best practice and who understand the competitive nature of the world in which Ukraine finds itself. 5. Choose an honest and final path to integration. Key words: unfavourable international environment, non-bloc status, grey zone, ‘double non-integration’, Russian countermeasures, ‘desovereignisation’ of Ukraine. In the view of a number of task force members (including the rapporteur) Ukraine has created its own grey zone. The paths to EU Association and Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) membership are open to it. Dvoesmyslennost’ (mixed messages) and integration a la carte will alienate honest partners and keep it in the grey zone. Ukraine does not have to choose between cooperation with Russia and the EU, and no one should impose this choice upon it. But integration requires a choice. The EU and ECU demarcate two distinct normative systems, codes of practice and sets of obligations that Ukraine cannot bend and blend as it sees fit. Ukraine has survived in the grey zone for twenty years and can continue to survive in it. But it cannot do so prosperously, securely or happily. In the discussion that must take place, it is essential that Ukraine avoid confusing itself and others. First, the law on non-bloc status excludes membership of military alliances, not economic unions. Its attributes and deficiencies are the subject of a separate debate. (Note: no EU member sees EU Association and the DCFTA as a prelude to NATO membership). Second, EU ‘conditionality’ must be understood. The 906-pp text of the Association Agreement (650 of them annexes and protocols) is not a set of conditions to be met prior to ratification, but a set of measures to be implemented by all state parties over time, the vast majority of them codifying the highly technical minutiae of ‘deep and comprehensive free trade’. The text was not imposed by the EU but negotiated over a four-and-a-half year period and finally agreed by the EU Council and President Yanukovych in December 2011. At the official level, there is no controversy about it. The conditions that

122

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

Ukraine should implement prior to signature and ratification are another matter. They are relatively simple: comply with international standards of electoral practice, end selective justice and implement the reforms defined in the jointly agreed 37-page Association Agenda.7 It is hoped that Associated status with the EU will gradually change Ukraine’s condition. All that the EU expects prior to signature is a change in its direction.8 In the course of discussion, many members of the task force expressed anxiety about declining Western interest in Ukraine and Russia’s determination to secure Ukraine’s integration on its own terms. It was not always clear whether a majority believed that Ukraine bore primary responsibility for its own future.

7 8

‘Council Conclusions on Ukraine’, Brussels, 10 December 2012. EU External Action Service http://eeas.europa.eu/ukraine/index_en.htm

6th Кyiv Security Forum

123

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

124

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

YOUTH FOCUS YOUNG GENERATION AT KSF-6 For the first time during a KSF, parallel work by a youth section was organized and took place. More than 50 young researchers, NGO representatives from different countries of the Black Sea region, Central and Eastern Europe, and Ukraine participated in discussions on the most pressing security issues with key KSF speakers. The participants were selected due to the results of the 1st Youth Kyiv Security Forum on Human Security that was held in November, 2012, and on the results of an essay competition devoted to the pressing security issues of global importance, which had been announced in February, 2013. Below you can find short abstracts from the essays of this young generation of experts:

***

Elyzaveta SHYLKOVA Intern at the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

CORRUPTION – A THREAT OF THE MODERN WORLD The phenomenon of corruption is not new; it has existed for centuries and is inherent to any area, whether it is the EU, the Black Sea region, India, or the United States. However, the main question is not about the existence of this phenomenon as such, because ultimately it is impossible to stop corruption completely, as well as unemployment in a market economy. However, a reduction in its level, the introduction of counteracting methods, penalties and liability for committing corruption – those are the main issues for national or even international communities. Comparing the EU member states and the Black Sea countries, we can see that the latter have the problem of corruption which is one of their key development issues. Indeed, corruption does not only apply to the financial sector, it applies at all levels: from medicine and education to obtaining simple services or information from public bodies.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

125

Đ&#x161;YIV SECURITY FORUM

YOUTH FOCUS The key issue is the cooperation and bilateral relations between the EU and the Black Sea region, taking advantage of markets for goods, transport routes, energy flows, etc. However, we should not forget about threats in this region. There are several ways to solve the problems of corruption. Firstly, we need to overcome the causes of corruption within each country in the region, and then build new models of cooperation with neighboring countries and partner countries on the basis of parity and transparency. The key is to fight corruption at the ground level. In this case it is necessary to strengthen the role of the public and public organizations that can influence the decisions and activities of local authorities, including on issues of no confidence votes on the leadership of a city, region, or village and on the officials who run institutions.

***

Kostyantyn SHPYLKA, Educational and Research Institute of Information Security

CHALLENGES OF THE 21ST CENTURY: HOW TO PROTECT THE INFORMATION DOMAIN? The protection of national interests in the information sector is an important component of the national security system in most developed countries. Scientists have identified two key areas: the safety of automated systems, which includes protection of information and communication networks and databases, and information and psychological security, which aims at the formation of ideology, valuesand priorities of people. The position of the state in matters of cyber security is expressed very clearly: there have been established laws, state standards, regulations and instructions on how to protect the automated systems. There are public services and commercial organizations that deal with security of information resources. So, who should protect our information and psychological security and how? If we are facing information warfare, then where is our information army? The first thing worth mentioning is the media. The duty of the media is to influence the information domain which logically stems from the definition of its activities.

126

6th Đ&#x161;yiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

127

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

YOUTH FOCUS The relationship between the state and journalists need a reset and some steps are necessary to start a fruitful cooperation from both the state and journalists. Firstly, it is the access to and the comprehensive coverage of government agencies of their own activities. Secondly, raising the general level of awareness among the population. Thirdly, something that the state should do, modernize the legal framework. But most importantly, and this applies to all political parties, the media, and ordinary citizens, do not forget that we are Ukrainians first and there are situations, when we have to put conflicts aside and speak in one voice for something more important than own ambitions.

***

Maria KARPYSHYN, The National University of “Kyiv-Mohyla Academy”

STUDENT GUARDIAN TRIANGLE OF SOCIETY Reflections on the fundamental principles of a secure life: truth, freedom, and morality The most important task of man is to preserve truth and learn to accept it whether he likes it or not, because truth can gradually be transformed into something else. In any case, it should not be given a misleading nature, because the more nonexistent things we make up, the more internal effort, material resources, and “lost decades of time” we have to pay for the recall of what is really true. If the security of truth should be the first and foremost concern of society, the security of freedom should be protected by national parliaments, presidents, governments, courts, law enforcement, etc., which were delegated with the execution of important functions by its citizens. Through taxes, the society “pays” the state in order to streamline its life, make it safe, comfortable, a proper environment for self-realization, namely, a free society. If freedom disappears, it is an indication that society somewhat did not cope with the management of their country, so one should immediately correct the deficiencies in order to continue to live independently. As you can see, society runs the state, and the state guarantees the freedom of public safety.

128

6th Кyiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

***

Nataliya LUKACH, Post-graduate student at the Department of Country Studies and International Tourism, Ivan Franko Lviv National University

INTERNATIONAL HUMAN TRAFFICKING AS A SECURITY THREAT Today’s globalization has covered almost all spheres of human life, it has touched upon not only economic, political and social processes, but also the processes associated with the activities of criminal groups, giving them a cross-border nature. This represents a great danger for the world community, as transnational criminal groups clearly act according to organized plans, which transcend state borders. The sensitive issue of combating the trafficking in human beings stands before the international community today. Human trafficking generates transnational threats that must be addressed in the context of a comprehensive security system followed by the creation of a model of cooperation between governments, civil society and international organizations. The 5P principle has been developed by the international community to establish such a strategy: Prevention, Protection, Prosecution, Punishment, and Partnerships. This is a combination of measures in a single system such as the prevention of human trafficking, the protection of victims and witnesses, prosecution, punishment, and criminal liability for associated activities, with partnership and cooperation at all levels from local to global ones.

***

Olena KVIATKOVSKA, PhD Student at Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE AS A SECURITY FACTOR Addressing conflicts in the region is possible through programs and projects for development. Preventive measures are more human-centric and resource-

6th Кyiv Security Forum

129

Đ&#x161;YIV SECURITY FORUM

YOUTH FOCUS lean, compared with the aid to overcome the consequences of uprising. International development assistance is an important element in addressing and, above all, preventing security threats. In particular, longterm programs rather than one-off projects can gradually introduce democratic institutions of governance, and improve the socio-economic indicators in poor countries. Corruption and poor education create threats to developing countries in the political sphere and government. This requires the help of experts from donor countries to develop legal frameworks, human rights and civil rights, the reformation of tax laws, increase in GDP, a strengthening of civil society, and a decentralizing and support of local government as a prerequisite for a better impact on the regulation of government processes and conducting democratic elections. The donors usually provide financial subsidies to the budgets of the recipient nations, but they are often distributed among the local elites through corrupt regimes and do not contribute to an improvement of living standards. So, inefficient power institutions, and the weak rule of law are 30-40% more conducive to the emergence of conflict, rather than providing peaceful and secure situations, as compared to other developing countries.

130

6th Đ&#x161;yiv Security Forum

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

131

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

MEDIA FOCUS

Newspaper “Kommersant Ukraine”, №69 (1772) 22.04.2013 “The EU has been fed up with promises” Europeans scare Ukraine at Kyiv Forum

Serhiy Sydorenko On Friday, the Kyiv Security Forum held by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk ‘Open Ukraine’ Foundation ended. This event will be best remembered for the strong statements by Western politicians and experts, noting that without the release of Yulia Tyshomenko, the ex-Prime-Minister, there is no chance of signing of the Association Agreement (CA) between Ukraine and the EU. However, it did not stop several Ukrainian speakers from stating their confidence in a successful CA conclusion. On April 18-19, the Fairmont Hotel hosted the 6th Kyiv Security Forum, with most of the discussions dedicated to the topic of European integration of Ukraine. Although in recent weeks Kyiv has been mainly hearing compliments in this regard in connection with the release of Yuriy Lutsenko, the Ex-Head of the Interior Ministry (please see “Ъ” of April 8th), yesterday’s discussion demonstrated that the resources of optimism of the Western partners is running out.

Newspaper “Day” April 22, 2013 Ariel COHEN: “Reset” was still-born

Maria Tomak Last week Kyiv hosted the 6th Kyiv Security Forum, the main organizer of which is the

132

6th Кyiv Security Forum

Arseniy Yatsenyuk ‘Open Ukraine’ Foundation. Discussions about world challenges, a great number of guests from all over the world… Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical dreams, the fate of “reset” and the Caucasus effect from the Boston terroristic attack were the topics of our talk with one of the top guests of the Kyiv Security Forum, Arial Cohen, Senior Researcher at the Heritage Foundation, Member of the U.S. Council for Foreign Relations, Counsel to the U.S. Congress. “… Regarding relations between Ukraine and western Europe – they are an essential component, necessary for the further successful development of Ukraine, for the normal development of its economy.… Extension of relations with western Europe – it’s not only about the sales of commodities and services. This is also about the evolution of your economy, which is possible due to bringing legal and regulatory norms in compliance with European ones, thus enabling business to stand on a more civilized foundation”.

Interfax-Ukraine Information Agency 19.04.2013 Release of Lutsenko is not sufficient for signing the Agreement on Ukraine-EC Association – the Vice-President of the European People’s Party Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, the Vice-President of the European People’s Party, is convinced that for the signing the Association Agreement to take place between Ukraine and the European Union, it is necessary to release not only Yuriy Lutsenko, the Ex-Head of the Interior Ministry, but also others imprisoned for political motives. “Although Mr. Lutsenko has been released and it has been welcomed by the European side, it is only the first step, and Y. Tymoshenko’s

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

release (the ex-Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko) should be next. I assure you that the EU will not be suited by release of one or two imprisoned – there have to be guarantees that political prosecution will not be repeated in the future”, – he said during his speech at the Security in Insecure World, the 6th Security Forum, hosted by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk Foundation ‘Open Ukraine’. According to the member of the European Parliament, Ukraine has to fulfill all the demands of the EU, and not only to make statements, but do all that is required. “This proposal for Ukrainian politics – to stop thinking for a while about future elections, but to think about future generations”, – said J. Saryusz-Wolski.

release of Yuriy Lutsenko would not help Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to sign the Agreement with the European Union in the autumn – elimination of the system of selective justice and a real fight against corruption are also required. Reforming the Ukrainian army and secret services is no less important for the national and regional security, added Steven Pifer in his comment for Liberty Radio. “I believe that Ukraine has demonstrated progress in reforming its armed forces. Ukrainians participate in peacekeeping missions with their colleagues from NATO countries. With regard to the reform of the secret services, at the time being it depends on the assignments Ukraine has assigned to the secret services’ officers. I am not sure that the Ukrainian secret services stand guard over the interests of Ukrainians”, – noted the US ExAmbassador to Ukraine.

19.04.2013 “I am not sure that Ukrainian secret services stand guard over the interests of Ukrainians” – Steven Pifer

Bohdana Kostyuk Kyiv – Selective prosecution, corruption and problems concerning relations with Russia, the USA and the European Union constitute a menace for Ukrainian and regional security. The countries of the Black Sea region and Central-Eastern Europe, historically connected to Ukraine by economic and cultural relations, suffer from that. Such a conclusion was made by the experts from different countries – participants of the International Security Forum that took place on April 18-19 in Kyiv. For the sixth time already the Kyiv Security Forum brought together the leading analysts and politicians from Ukraine, the USA, Russia and the EU countries to the Capital of Ukraine. Among the Forum’s initiators – charitable Ukrainian Funds, founded by Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Viktor Pinchuk, British Chatham House and other organizations. Steven Pifer, the US Ex-Ambassador to Ukraine, during his speech declared that the mere

TVi 19.04.2013 Tombiński: The Association Agreement is not a threat for partners of Ukraine The Association Agreement provides more opportunities for all partners of Ukraine, particularly Russia as well. The Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU does not embed any negative effects for partners of Ukraine, but on the contrary it opens new opportunities for them. It was stressed by Jan Tombiński, the Head of the EU Delegation to Ukraine, giving a speech at the Security in Insecure World, the 6th Kyiv Security Forum, the press-service of the Forum reported. “The Association as such is a positive proposal. It does not have any negative implications for other partners of Ukraine. It does not imply any blow back or something like that”, – he said.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

133

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

MEDIA FOCUS

The First National TV Channel The EU will not sign the Association without Tymoshenko’s release The European Union will not sign the Association Agreement with Ukraine without the release of opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko. It was declared at the Security in Insecure World, the 6th Kyiv Security Forum, by the European politicians who participated in the discussion panel “In Focus: Ukraine. What comes next”. The EU will not sign the Association without Tymoshenko’s release. “Only provided that Yulia Tymoshenko is released and allowed to undergo medical treatment abroad, the signature of the Association Agreement with Ukraine by the European Union is possible”, – Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, the Vice-President of the European People’s Party, noted. “This Agreement has not only an economic context, it’s referring, first of all, to values and democratic standards. The EU accepts only that Ukraine, which complies with European principles”, he asserted.

RBC Ukraine 19.04.2013 The EU will support Ukraine in energy issues in the event the AA is signed with the EU, – the European parliamentarian If the Association Agreement is signed, then the European Union will be obliged to support Ukraine in energy issues. It was informed today during the Security in Insecure World, the 6th

134

6th Кyiv Security Forum

Kyiv Security Forum, by Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, the Vice-President of the European People’s Party, as reported by the correspondent of RBK-Ukraine. “If this Agreement is indeed signed, then the European Union will be obliged to demonstrate solidarity with Ukraine in terms of the demand provisions and give support to its position on certain external issues (construction of the North Stream by Russia)… At the same time we expect that Ukraine will not only be a part of the Energy Community, but also will fulfill the requirements of the first package of rules that the Ukrainian legislation will be supplied with. So, this is not an issue of the situation, when the north stream will be decided on, or that there will be no interest to help solve issues such as what took place in 2009, when Russia turned off the gas to Ukraine”, – SaryuszWolski reported.

April 19, 2013 Shale gas will not solve problems between Ukraine and Russia, – U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Extraction of shale gas in Ukraine will not take away all the issues of conflict, which are present in energy relations between Kyiv and Moscow. The U.S. will do its utmost to support Ukraine in arranging extraction of shale gas. So was declared by John Tefft, the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, giving a speech on April 18 at the Security in Insecure World, the 6th Security Forum. “Shale Gas is quite a ‘positive thing’, only everything should be done properly, the relevant regulatory norms should exist and companies should exploit advanced technologies”, – Mr. Tefft said. Also, he added that extraction of shale gas will help Ukraine to strengthen its economic independence.

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

CAMERA FOCUS

6th Кyiv Security Forum

135

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

MEDIA FOCUS

UNIAN 19.04.2013 The EU Ambassador: The Association Agreement does not hold negative effects for partners of Ukraine The Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union does not hold negative effects for the partners of Ukraine. According to UNIAN correspondent, these were the words said by Jan Tombiński, the Head of the EU Delegation to Ukraine, during his speech at the Security in Insecure World, the Kyiv Security Forum, held by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk ‘Open Ukraine’ Foundation. “The Association as such is a positive proposal, it does not have any negative implications for other partners of Ukraine and does not imply any potential of a blow back”, said J. Tombiński. According to him, the Association Agreement will open more opportunities for all partners of Ukraine, if its economy develops and operates better.

UNN April 18, 2013 Y. Boyko asked Shell Oil to explain to Ukrainians the safety of shale gas extraction

Yaryna Fed’kiv Y. Boyko, Vice-Prime-Minister of Ukraine, called on the Shell Oil Company to explain to Ukrainians that the extraction of shale gas is safe and profitable. He said that at the 6th Kyiv Security Forum in Kyiv, UNN reports. “It’s important to explain that. The more people know about shale gas, the better the

136

6th Кyiv Security Forum

atmosphere will be about this project”, – the government official emphasized. According to Y. Boyko, the only negative news regarding shale gas extraction has come from the EU lately. However, the Ukrainian VicePrime-Minister is convinced that provided the proper technical arrangements are ensured, there will be no problem with gas extraction.

Evening News 18.04.2013 “The future of Ukraine is only in the European Union”, – Yatsenyuk asserted at the opening of the 6th Kyiv Security Forum “The future of Ukraine is only in the European Union”, – Yatsenyuk asserted at the opening of the 6th Kyiv Security Forum. “I am convinced that the future of Ukraine is only in the European Union”, – Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the Head of the Batkivshchyna Faction, Founder of the ‘Open Ukraine’ Foundation, declared on Thursday, April 18, at the opening of the 6th Kyiv Security Forum, organized by the ‘Open Ukraine’ Foundation. He stressed that a number of laws have been approved today at the Supreme Council of Ukraine, that approximate Ukrainian legislation to European standards: “We are devoted to our goals”. Arseniy Yatsenyuk is convinced that the Kyiv Security Forum has to become a tool to shape the future: “We will form the future of the world and the future of Ukraine: our intelligence, our souls, and that we are ready to implement real changes in our life and in the future of the world”.

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

bankier.pl

Source: PAP Świat 2013-04-20 Saryusz-Wolski: There will be no EUUkraine Agreement until the opposition imprisoned is released The European Union will not form any Association with a country, in which the opposition is imprisoned. “Without the release of the Ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko there will be no Association Agreement with Ukraine”, – declared MEP Jacek Saryusz-Wolski on Friday in Kyiv. The politician, who was a guest at the 6th Kyiv Security Forum, said that Ukraine will not come closer to the EU if it does not resign from its selective application of law and does not reform its judiciary and electoral systems.

Pzeczpospolita 19-04-2013 There will not be no Association Agreement while the opposition is imprisoned The European Union will not form any Association with a country, in which the opposition is imprisoned. “Without the release of the Ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko there will be no Association Agreement with Ukraine”, – declared Polish MEP Jacek Saryusz-Wolski. The politician, who was the guest of the 6th Kyiv Security Forum, said that Ukraine will not come closer to the EU if it does not reject its selective application of law and does not reform its judiciary and electoral systems. “It seems to me that it is possible for President (Viktor) Yanukovych to accept the EU conditions, if he’s really concerned about this. This would mean the release of Yulia Tymoshenko (…), that would unblock the possibility to sign the Agreement”, – he said. The MEP pointed out that the document of the Association that Ukraine may sign with the EU at the Eastern Partnership Summit in November in Vilnius, is “a really great offer”.

BBC April 23, 2013 Pifer: The White House does not see reasons to go to Ukraine

Steven Pifer was the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine in 1998-2000. In his interview to BBC Ukraine, Steven Pifer, the U.S. Ex-Ambassador to Ukraine, and now a staff member of the Brookings Institution, described, why no American leaders will come to Ukraine in the near term and why relations between Kyiv and the West are worse today than they were in the late 1990’s. Steven Pifer: What has happened during the last several years in the sphere of democracy is most disturbing, and it is a backward movement compared to the progress achieved in the period from 2005 to 2009. Victor Yanukovych became the President having won fair and free elections in 2010, and this is one of the reasons, why the country recognized him within a few days, because he had democratic legitimacy. However, now a backward movement is happening: the elections that have taken place in the country recently have not complied with electoral standards established in Ukraine in the period from 2005 to 2009. This is the first problem. Another problem implies that Ukraine has, apparently, left the path of European integration and slipped into a zone between the EU and Russia. Ukrainian foreign policy has always been aimed at, on the one hand, integrating into the EU, and, on the other hand, building constructive relations with Russia, but has not been aimed at slipping into the “no one’s” area between the two options. However, due to the domestic policy and complications that led to dawdling in signing the Association Agreement (with the EU – Ed.), I fear that Ukraine can fall into a grey area.

6th Кyiv Security Forum

137

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

MEDIA FOCUS

The Ukrainian Week April 23, 2013 Google Advisor on Ethics: When creativity suffers and is restricted, then the Internet suffers and, as an outcome, business suffers.

Hazeta po-ukrayinsky (Ukrainian-style Newspaper) 22.04.2013

Margaryta Ormotsadze John Kampfner,

Conflicts will be present until the Russian Federation realizes that Georgia and Ukraine are its friends, not satellites – the Vice-Speaker of Georgia

journalist, the Head of the Index on Censorship Magazine, Advisor to Google Company on Ethics, told The Ukrainian Week about the international principles protecting the right of free obtainment of information and the role of the new media. The Ukrainian Week: The slogan “information wants to be free” was discussed among others at the Security in an Unsecure World, Kyiv Security Forum. In your opinion, what information should be free in Ukraine? John Kampfner: I am not an expert on Ukrainian issues, but I can talk about the principles of global freedom of speech to be used in each country. It is absolutely right that we resist unnecessary restrictions in the Internet. Such measures can be used as a last resort tool of influence. I cooperate with the largest organizations for the protection of freedom of speech in Great Britain and I feel sad because of difficulties with expressing freedom of speech in some countries. There is a threat that government attempts to restrict the spread of such things as pornography or terroristic organizations data will be used to create a regulatory or legal regime that would limit information to a much greater extent than is necessary. It is right for society, apparently, to require mechanisms to restrict “a language of hate”. However, governments of many countries, particularly of the Russian Federation, use such methods to create laws that not only restrict “a language of hate”, but also limit the dissemination of information. This is a common criticism of governments.

138

6th Кyiv Security Forum

Olha Bohachevska According to Baramidze, Russia is still trying to keep the neighboring countries in its orbit of influence. The conflicts of Ukraine and Georgia with Russia are a consequence of the inability of Russian authorities to recognize the independence of the former Soviet republics. Giorgi Baramidze, the Vice-Speaker of the Parliament of Georgia, talked about that at the Kyiv Security Forum. In his opinion, Russia is still trying to keep the neighbouring countries in its orbit of influence. “Do not be naive, no positive developments have changed the situation completely, because the problem is in the geopolitics of Russia. Russia wants to govern the region. That’s why it is governed by the KGB staffer Putin, – Baramidze believes, – The conflicts that occur occasionally are anti-infantry mines laid as far back as by Stalin. The conflicts will not disappear as long as Russia does not understand that Georgia and Ukraine are its friends, not satellites.”

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

6th KYIV SECURITY FORUM Initiative of:

Arseniy Yatsenyuk Foundation

Financial Support:

In Partnership with:

6th Кyiv Security Forum

139

КYIV SECURITY FORUM

Media Patronage:

www.kommersant.ua

TV Partner:

www.channel5.com

Media Partners:

www.day.kiev.ua

www.kyivpost.com

140

www.expert.ua

www.interfax.com.ua

www.nagolos.com.ua

6th Кyiv Security Forum