RECAP

The Good Times Were Rolling in New Orleans. Nearly 7,000 cattle producers, industry partners, and stakeholders gathered in New Orleans for the 2023 Cattle Industry Convention & NCBA Trade Show. The convention, the largest in the beef industry, offered education, engagement, and entertainment on February 1-3.

This year’s event kicked off with Franki Moscato, winner of the 10 th Annual NCBA National Anthem Contest, singing the “Star Spangled Banner.” Buzz Brainard, host of Music Row Happy Hour, returned as convention emcee and introduced surprise guest Archie Manning, patriarch of a professional football legacy and former quarterback of the New Orleans Saints. “Yellowstone” creator Taylor Sheridan joined remotely to welcome cattlemen and women from across the country.

Over the following few days, convention participants gained insights on market trends and weather forecasts during the CattleFax Outlook Seminar, learned about the industry’s commitment to protecting environmental resources, supporting communities, and creating an economically viable future during the Sustainability Forum, and heard an update on the beef business climate in the United States and around the globe.

Annual meetings of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, the Cattlemen’s Beef Board, American National CattleWomen, CattleFax, and National Cattlemen’s Foundation also took place. In addition, the 2022 Environmental Stewardship Award regional winners were recognized at a special reception. Before activities concluded on Friday, the Closing General Session celebrated the Beef Checkoff funded Beef Quality Assurance (BQA) Program and BQA award winners and featured inspirational keynote speaker Chris Koch.

The award winning NCBA Trade Show provided opportunities for producers to network, learn, shop, dine, and connect with friends, both old and new. It featured more than 350 exhibitors and displays across eight acres under one roof, along with a variety of educational opportunities.

New in 2023, Cattle Chats featured 20 minute beef industry educational sessions, with special spotlight sessions focusing on sustainability. Attendees also stopped in the Learning Lounge to enjoy informal, face-to-face talks in an intimate setting right on the trade show floor. Industry leaders tackled topics such as ranch succession, effective probiotics, deworming protocols, animal welfare, and tax trends.

The popular Stockmanship & Stewardship Demonstration Arena returned with stockmanship experts providing low stress cattle handling demonstrations, BQA educational sessions, industry updates, and facility design sessions. The Chutes and Scales Showdown offered a side by side comparison of equipment, where producers watched cattle run through chutes, then got hands-on experience.

New Orleans is the birthplace of Jazz, and entertainment was around every corner. The Secret Cow on Thursday night transported guests back to 1920s New Orleans for jazzy music, good food, and great company. The country trio Chapel Hart combined their Mississippi roots and Louisiana spice in a special performance during Closing General Session. Convention will wrapped up Friday evening with “Party Gras” featuring the country music group Midland and special guest Neal McCoy.

Cattlemen’s College Draws Big Crowd in New Orleans. Cattle producers from across the country gathered in New Orleans for the 30 th Annual Cattlemen’s College, held prior to the 2023 Cattle Industry Convention & NCBA Trade Show. Cattlemen’s College, sponsored by Zoetis, is one of the cattle industry’s premier educational events and features live animal handling demonstrations and sessions with industry leaders tackling innovative topics.

Cattlemen’s College sessions highlighted trending hot topics, the latest in grazing as well as live cattle handling demonstrations. Six educational tracks and 18 sessions provided attendees with valuable information about reproduction technology, herd health, practical nutrition management, better beef business, sustainable grazing, and the latest in genetics. The event concluded with a keynote presentation from Ray Starling, executive advisor for Aimpoint Research.

Starling discussed the power of knowledge and how producers should remain informed about current issues impacting the industry. He also talked about the value of teamwork and the importance of being involved with state and national cattle organizations.

Cattlemen’s College educational sessions included perennial favorites as well as innovative trends. A brand new topic this year was silvopasture, a grazing practice that integrates livestock, forages, and trees. Dr. Rocky Lemus and George Owens shared the science behind this sustainable grazing method and real world perspectives on managing a silvopasture system.

“Cattle Behavior in the Real World” was a popular draw with Dr. Dean Fish and Dr. Lily Edwards-Callaway providing practical solutions for producers to take back to their operations to improve stockmanship and enhance animal welfare.

Another well attended breakout was “Are You Brave Enough to Attend This Session?” featuring Rural Minds founder Jeff Winton who addressed the mental health crisis in rural America and provided solutions for producers to prioritize mental health, care for themselves, and check in on neighbors.

CattleFax Forecasts Producer Profitability in 2023 with Potential Drought Relief for the West. The popular CattleFax Outlook Seminar, held as part of the 2023 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show in New Orleans, shared expert market and weather analysis.

Prices and profitability will again favor cattle producers in 2023. The cattle industry is entering 2023 with the smallest cattle supply since 2015, as drought caused the industry to dig deeper into the supply of feeder cattle and calves. While the exact path to drought relief is unknown, improvements are also expected to translate to moderating feed costs, especially in the second half of 2023. Combined with increased cattle prices, cattle producers, especially the cow/calf operator, will continue to see an improvement in margins for the next several years, according to CattleFax.

Meteorologist Matt Makens said the latest forecast for La Niña has only a 14 percent probability of existence this spring and down further by the summer, which means a pattern change comes our way this year. A neutral phase will take control of the pattern as La Niña weakens and may last several months before giving El Niño a chance to grow this summer and into the fall.

Makens said putting this latest La Niña episode in the review mirror suggests improving drought conditions, more favorable growing seasons, and healthier soils.

“I’m not trying to imply that doing away with La Niña fixes everything. An El Niño can cause drought across the northern states. There is no win-win for everyone in any weather pattern,” Makens added. “But moisture conditions should improve for the West in the second half of this year.”

Kevin Good, vice president of industry relations and analysis at CattleFax, reported that U.S. beef cow cattle inventories have already fallen 1.5 million head from cycle highs. The 2023 beef cow herd is expected to be down about another million head to nearly 29.2 million.

“Drought affected nearly half of the beef cow herd over the last year, exacerbating the liquidation in 2022. Drought improvement and higher cattle prices should drastically slow beef cow culling through 2023,” Good said.

Feeder cattle and calf supplies outside of feedyards will be 400,000 to 450,000 head smaller than in 2022 at 25.1 million. After being full for most of the past three years, cattle on feed inventories are expected to begin 2023 at 300,000 to 400,000 head below last year, at 14.3 million head, and remain smaller. Commercial fed slaughter in 2023 is forecast to decline by 750,000 to 800,000 to 25.6 million head.

“With drought forced placement and culling, beef production was record large in 2022 at 28.3 billion pounds. Expect production to drop over the next several years – declining 4-5 percent in 2023 to 27 billion pounds,” Good said. “The decline in production in 2023 will lead to a 2.2 pound decline in net beef supply to 57 pounds per person.”

Good forecast the average 2023 fed steer price at $158/cwt., up $13/cwt. from 2022, with a range of $150 to $172/cwt. throughout the year. All cattle classes are expected to trade higher, and prices are expected to continue to trend upward. The 800 lb steer price is expected to average $195/cwt. with a range of $175 to $215/ cwt., and the 550 lb steer price is expected to average $225/cwt., with a range of $200 to $245/cwt. Finally, Good forecast utility cows at an average of $100/cwt. with a range of $75 to $115/cwt., and bred cows at an average of $2,100/cwt. with a range of $1,900-$2,300 for load lots of quality, running age cows.

When looking at domestic beef demand, the U.S. economy will be a driving factor going in 2023. CattleFax said inflation, rising interest rates, and general economic uncertainty will continue to impact consumer purchasing decisions as many look to limit spending. Inflation reached a 40 year high in 2022, triggering the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates seven times last year with intentions for further rate increases until inflation falls. Though the Federal Reserve hopes to accomplish a “soft landing” and avoid recession, the U.S. economy is expected to slow in 2023, with most economists calling for a mild recession in the second half of the year.

Good noted that though beef demand has softened, it remains historically strong, and consumers have shown willingness to continue to buy beef in a new and higher range. He expects the 2023 USDA All Fresh Retail Beef prices to average $7.35/ pound, up 4 cents from 2022.

He also said wholesale demand will appear to be softer, as prices will not go up at the same rate of inflation despite tighter supplies. The cutout value should move higher to average $270/cwt. for 2023.

Global protein demand has continued to rise around the world, and tighter global protein supplies should broadly support prices in 2023. After more than 20 percent of growth across the last two years, U.S. beef exports are expected to moderate, declining 3 percent in 2023 to 3.5 billion pounds. Japan and South Korea remain the top U.S. beef export destinations, with stable exports in 2022. Meanwhile, Chinese demand has continued to grow, with tonnage up 20 percent last year, likely with continued room to grow.

Mike Murphy, CattleFax vice president of research and risk management services, said national December 1 onfarm hay stock was down 9 percent from a year ago at 71.9 million tons, with hay prices averaging $216/ton in 2022.

“Last year was the smallest U.S. hay production year since 1959,” Murphy said. “Hay prices will likely continue to be high in the first part of 2023, but we expect weather patterns to improve pasture conditions as early as this spring which should help stabilize and soften hay prices throughout 2023.”

CattleFax said corn stocks-to-use are just under 9 percent and will continue to support the market above $6/bu. and provide resistance near $7.50/bu. into the summer with a yearly average price of $6.50/bu. expected.

Blach concluded the session with an overall positive outlook, expecting improvements in the weather pattern and a tighter supply to distribute more money through all sectors of the cattle industry.

Forum Reaffirms Beef Industry’s Commitment to Sustainable Future.

Annual Cattle Industry Convention

Showcases Sustainability Efforts.

Every day cattle producers across the country reaffirm their commitment to protecting environmental resources, supporting communities, and creating an economically viable future through effective management practices. The “Beef Sustainability Forum – Continuing our Commitment to a Sustainable Future,” sponsored by Elanco, highlighted the industry’s sustainability efforts.

Moderated by National Cattlemen’s Beef Association CEO Colin Woodall, the panel discussion included opening remarks from Katie Cook, Elanco’s vice president of global farm animal innovation & U.S. farm animal marketing, and will feature John Ferry, co-owner of JY Ferry & Son, Inc., in Corinne, Utah, the 2021 national winner of the Environmental Stewardship Award Program; Tom McDonald, senior vice president of environmental affairs & sustainability for Five Rivers Cattle Feeding; Drake Yon, farm operations manager at Yon Family Farms in Ridge Spring, S.C., the 2008 national winner of the Environmental Stewardship Award Program; and Sara Place, Ph.D., associate professor and feedlot systems specialist at Colorado State University.

“Sustainability continues to be a top priority for NCBA and is an issue at the forefront of the entire beef industry,” said Josh White, executive director of producer education and sustainability at NCBA. “This special event included cattle producers from each sector discussing strategies that have improved sustainability on their own operations, and how those efforts can enhance sustainability for the entire industry.” management programs,” said NCBA Vice President of Government Affairs Ethan Lane. “NCBA will continue building relationships with USDA leadership so we can work together on addressing the issues facing the cattle industry.”

In addition to the Sustainability Forum, convention attendees found sustainability focused educational sessions on the NCBA Trade Show floor in the “Cattle Chats” area. During these brief presentations, industry leaders shared the latest trends in sustainability and other issues impacting the beef cattle industry. From cowherd nutrition and record keeping to animal health and alternative financing, these unique sessions provided producers the resources needed to develop a lasting legacy.

As a part of the third general session of the 2023 Cattle Industry Convention, Deputy Secretary Bronaugh spoke on a wide variety of topics, including rural broadband access, foreign animal disease, international trade, and sustainability. Deputy Secretary Bronaugh discussed the implementation of broadband improvements across rural America under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Additionally, Deputy Secretary Bronaugh highlighted USDA’s foreign animal disease response strategy and the importance of the National Animal Vaccine and Veterinary Countermeasures Bank (NAVVCB), the National Animal Disease Preparedness and Response Program (NADPRP), and the National Animal Health Laboratory Network (NAHLN). Finally, the Deputy Secretary reaffirmed the critical role of USDA in opening new markets for U.S. beef exports and countering non-science based, subjective trade barriers that hamper the sale of American beef worldwide.

“I’m grateful for the opportunity to participate in this year’s Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show to highlight the important work we’re doing at USDA to support hardworking farmers and ranchers across the country,” said Deputy Secretary Bronaugh. “From creating more, new, and better markets that allow producers to increase their bottom line, to mitigating the spread of foreign animal disease, to deploying every tool in our toolbox to enhance competition in agricultural markets, to investing in the rural communities many farmers and ranchers call home, USDA is committed to ensuring farmers and ranchers have every opportunity to succeed.”

Prior to her appointment at USDA, Deputy Secretary Bronaugh served as the 16 th Commissioner of the Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services from 2018 to 2021. She also worked as Virginia State Executive Director for the Farm Service Agency (FSA) from 2015 until 2018. Deputy Secretary Bronaugh took office on May 17, 2021.