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Coined by Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs in 2001, the acronym: 'BRIC' for signifying the emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India and China, has become integral to discussions on world issues of politics and economics. In this issue of Dialogue we contribute to this ongoing international discussion, fundamentally questioning whether they will meet the benchmark of power that the world now expects.
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As in our previous issue, Dialogue's gaze remains international with this edition covering a wide number of regions and topics including: China's leadership transition (p. 23), Italy's crisis with political elites (p. 11) and the return of President Obama (p. 33) among many others. We welcome you to share your thoughts on the issues discussed in this edition by emailing: kclpoliticsjournal@gmail.com, and
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Dialogue | Winter 2013
02
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Winter 2013 | Dialogue
In a time of global ideological truce it apparently ta-
do not share a common geographical context or con-
kes an American investment bank to conjure up a ri-
stitute a trading block like the EU (European Union),
val bloc of countries that may vie with the West. Ever
ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations)
since Goldman Sachs coined the BRIC acronym more
and MERCOSUR (South America’s trade bloc), nor
than a decade ago, Brazil, Russia, India and China
are they united by cultural affinities or historical
have eagerly exploited their allotted brand to form a
bonds like the Arab League and the Commonwealth
non-Western coalition of emerging powers in inter-
countries respectively. While Brazil, India and South
national politics. And with a bit of wit of their own,
Africa pride themselves on being vibrant multi-
the BRICS recently capitalized in full by admitting
cultural democracies, both Russia and China are more
South Africa into their ranks, thereby enlisting anot-
accurately described as autocratic regimes that up-
her continent behind their non-Western cause.
hold a rather particularistic ethno-cultural mindset. Moreover, whereas China and Russia as permanent
On the face of it, the BRICS may be easily dismissed
members of the UN Security Council enjoy the status
as a strategically branded jumble of countries that
and rights of great powers, the other three BRICS are
defy most meaningful common denominators. They
still regarded as developing countries and have for-
Dialogue | Winter 2013
04
med their own club, IBSA (India-Brazil-South-
or willingly for that matter – erased from the identi-
Africa Dialogue Forum), to strengthen their common
ties of Brazil, India or South Africa. The Chinese
interests internationally.
have certainly not forgotten the “Century of Humiliation” under Western (and Japanese) imperialism,
Indeed, the notion of a BRICS-challenge to the West
which is why Chinese policy-makers react ve-
quickly dissolves when confronted with the fact that
hemently whenever Western countries interfere in
the lofty declarations from their annual summits –
questions concerning China’s sovereignty or territ-
announcing wide-ranging cooperation and an exten-
orial rights. As to Russia, its 20th century ideological
sive bureaucratization of their joint activities – have
rivalry with the Western powers has instilled a simi-
yet to materialize. Even more importantly, the
lar anti-Western consciousness in the Russian popu-
BRICS themselves have been struggling with the
lation. Taken together, this is mirrored in the BRICS’
global financial crisis, which has seriously hampered
staunch commitment to Westphalian principles of
their growth momentum and accordingly under-
sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs.
mined the previous straight line projections of their
Russia and China have especially used their seats in
rise. Finally, although they represent emerging mar-
the United Nations’ Security Council to block the
kets, the BRICS still rank as middle or low income
emerging Western-sponsored norm of humanitarian
countries in terms of GDP per capita (Place: 75, 53,
intervention
129, 92 and 78 respectively in 2011). This is of
‘Responsibility to Protect’ (R2P). The BRICS mem-
course a useful indication of how far the BRICS still
bers’ attitude towards the West was recently exemp-
lag behind the advanced Western economies– thus
lified in the UN deliberations over Syria, where Rus-
reducing the imminence of any direct challenge from
sia and China both vetoed the British-led UN resolut-
the BRICS.
ion to impose harsh economic sanctions in order to
“
through
their
commitment
to
end the conflict.
… The BRICS embody an antiwestern sentiment that runs deep among the emerging powers...”
The second reason that the BRICS phenomenon is an
Nevertheless, there are at least two reasons why the
sition to a post-western world mentality which feeds
“BRICS-phenomenon” is interesting as an express-
into anxieties of a dramatic Western decline. These
ion of the current mental state of international af-
anxieties are fed by an addictive virtual industry,
fairs. Firstly, the BRICS embody an anti-Western
which constantly speculates over when rising non-
sentiment that runs deep among the emerging powers
Western powers will surpass the West, featuring in
as demonstrated by the sometimes harsh political
particular China’s race against America. The pion-
rhetoric of the BRICS summit statements. The colo-
eers of Goldman Sachs first estimated that the Chi-
nial suppression by Western countries is not easily –
nese economy would surpass the American in 2041,
interesting reflection of international mentality has actually more to do with the West itself. The emergence of the BRICS appears to have triggered a tran-
which was later adjusted to 2027. The Economist
05
Winter 2013 | Dialogue
Intelligence Unit has projected the transition to
lined in his State of the Union address that
take place in 2021, while the International Mone-
“anyone who tells you that America is in decline
tary Fund (IMF) and Organisation for Economic
or that our influence has waned, doesn't know what
Co-operation and Development (OECD) put their
they’re talking about.” Mitt Romney declared that
bet on 2016. Some even argue that it has already
the 21st century would be American, not Chinese.
occurred in terms of the purchasing power parity
In their third presidential debate Obama argued
measure. Yet, in light of the recent slowdown of
that the United States remains “the one indis-
the BRICS’ economic output and the continued
pensable nation, and the world needs a strong
inferiority of the BRICS-economies compared to
America” while Romney went as far as to charac-
the West, the whole exercise of measuring when
terize the United States as the “hope of the earth”.
the transition nominally will take place seems to
In other words, the rise of the BRICS, notably
foremost reflect a somewhat paranoid fear of
China, raises fundamental questions of America’s
decline.
self-understanding, which could lead the world’s only superpower to accentuate the exceptionalist
Interestingly, the debate about Western decline in
strand of its identity.
general and American decline in particular has a long history reaching all the way back to the Cold
While the idea of a BRICS-challenge to the West
War era. From the fear of being overtaken by the
may seem like a bit of a hype, it would be prema-
Soviet Union in the days of Sputnik through the
ture to predict that the 21st century will be yet anot-
collapse of Bretton Woods, oil crises, the rise of
her Western dominated period. There is no iron
OPEC, Vietnam war and Iranian revolution to the
law that prevents the BRICS from reaching parity
‘Japan threat’ of the 80s, which has now been re-
with the Western great powers but if it does hap-
placed by a ‘China threat’. Hence, the latest round
pen, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa
of the “declinist debate” already has a well-
are much more likely to pose a challenge to the
established lens through which to read the econo-
existing world order individually, rather than as a
mic crisis, unemployment, military sequestration
group. In fact, what is really worrying is that there
and even the last flight of the Discovery space
are exceptionalist identities and a sense of self-
shuttle.
righteousness on all sides – the last thing we would wish for is for the 21st century to become a clash of
On the other hand, when it comes to the United
exceptionalisms.
States the “declinist” mentality is more than offset by an optimistic spirit rooted in a deep-seated belief in the unique potential of the American nation. This `exceptionalist´ mentality, as it is often termed, has been in full display during 2012 as part of the electoral campaigns of both presidential
ANDREAS BØJE FORSBY is a PhD candidate at the Danish Institute for International Studies. PETER MARCUS KRISTENSEN is a PhD Candidate at the University of Copenhagen.
candidates. Barack Obama, for instance, under-
Dialogue | Winter 2013
06
“Initially, we were very excited when the European
much like national embassies. Today the EEAS opera-
Union embarked on its process towards unifying its
tes 140 delegations all over the world, which is more
Common Foreign and Security Policy, giving us one
than most individual European member states.
actor to talk to in place of 27! Unfortunately, today, not much has changed; instead we have reverted to focusing
To answer the question of the “red telephone” let us
our diplomatic efforts on the ‘Big Three’.” This state-
look at three novelties related to the personnel changes
ment by a researcher in one of China’s government
the EU’s Foreign Service has been introducing. Firstly,
think tanks has been confirmed in most of my en-
the EEAS combines a wide variety of policy areas un-
counters during a seven-month research stay in Beijing.
der its expertise. While national embassies normally
Of course, my counterparts were speaking about the EU
fulfill a variety of administrative roles, its functional
landmark reforms in December 2009; when the ratifi-
positions are mainly filled with political experts. Since
cation of the Lisbon Treaty freed the way to the
the EEAS is combining the former functions of the De-
establishment of a diplomatic corps and a foreign mini-
legations of the European Commission with those of a
stry of the European Union. The frequent requests by
foreign service, counterparts will find experts of the va-
third countries to address a unified union were conside-
rious directorate generals under its roof. This means, for
rable motivations for the novelties in the Lisbon Treaty,
instance, that representatives of trade ministries will be
three years after the signing of the treaty, have the new
able to actually meet with a trade expert rather than a
structures been able to address these issues? Which ba-
diplomat when visiting the EU Representation. If used
ses have been established?
as intentioned the new structure could shorten communication lines and concentrate negotiations by EU mem-
Two of the most important changes of the Lisbon treaty
ber states. What appears to be an advantage for the visi-
are the elevation of the position of the High Representa-
bility of the different Commission portfolios also crea-
tive for Common Foreign and Security Policy, which
tes a very clear challenge of loyalties. The EU delegat-
was represented by Javier Solana from 1999-2009. To-
ions are effectively staffed by member states and the
day Lady Catherine Ashton holds the position of the
European commission, which has conjured clashes of
High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs
working styles, loyalties and budget allocations, especi-
and Security Policy (HR). She also heads the newly
ally in the first two years of operation.
established European External Action Service (EEAS), which started operation in 2010. The European External
One of the most visible (intentionally so) new actors is
Action Service replaces the former Representations of
the new HR, currently Lady Catherine Ashton. The idea
the European Commission and is supposed to work
behind the creation of the position of the HR was to
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Winter 2013 | Dialogue
give the Union a face that would be recognized by glo-
in the short run, relates to the internal makeup and po-
bal leaders as a serious counterpart (together with van
litical divisions within the Union. The institutional basis
Rompoy, the President of the European Council, and
for a common foreign and security policy has truly been
Barroso, the President of the European Commission).
laid and a process tracing back to the very beginnings of
Media reports about the first three years of Lady
European integration, when a European Defense Com-
Ashton’s tenure have been underwhelming, to say the
munity was considered for the first time, has reached a
least. Criticized both in her home country and continen-
significant milestone. But the complaints, the divisions
tal Europe comments have run along similar lines: too
and the very essence of national sovereignty are still in
weak, not charismatic enough and not measuring up to
place and are likely to stay in place for many years to
the task designed for her. To be fair, however, one has
come. In practice this means that there are still 27 state-
to look at the job the HR is tasked with, as she combines
ments (and more) being made when the EU’s strategic
a staggering six roles in one person. Ashton’s days are
interests (as laid down in its 2003 security strategy) are
filled with meetings, briefings, visits and simultaneously
threatened by conflicts in its neighbourhood and other
leading the activities of the EEAS. Ashton’s credentials
parts of the world. While it is legitimate for member
were put to a test of fire in the dealing with the Libyan
states to ask for sovereign decisions and would be
conflict. Following her approach of shuttle diplomacy
considered the norm in any other circumstance, the EU
and consultation with EU member states Ashton ended
has created an institutional framework aimed at com-
up being the last to issue EU statements following quick
mon decision-making, representation and the pooling of
communications by, for example French, British and
resources in international crisis situations. However,
German governments. After Gaddafi’s ousting, the new
commentators like José Ignacio Torreblanca from the
opposition government taking office did not even re-
European Council on Foreign Relations predict for a
ceive the European Union’s HR.
divided Europe a fate of international irrelevance, taking last year’s vote over the admission of Palestine to UNE-
But what do these examples tell us about the new visibi-
SCO as an example. Out of 27 countries, eleven voted
lity of the European Union as an international actor?
in favour, five against and eleven abstained. Whether
The answer must be typically European: We are looking
the mindsets, loyalties and political cultures of the Euro-
at a process, which has only begun. The Union’s goal –
pean Union and its member states will change to fit its
assuming it is an actor with its own interest – has not yet
new institutional structure, only the future can tell.
been achieved. There are two sets of reasons for this, one short-term, one long-term. In the short term there is
OLIVIA GIPPNER is a PhD Candidate at Berlin Gradu-
a general confusion by other governments and stakehol-
ate School on Transnational Studies and a researcher
ders on what exact roles and capabilities the EEAS is
with the NFG Research Project ”Asian Perceptions of
meant to fulfill. These questions of definition and per-
the EU”.
sonnel changes, however, might be answered as networks are consolidated and the foreign ministries and governments in Beijing, Washington D.C. and Brasilia get used to working with representatives of EU Delegations. The second reason, which is unlikely to be solved
Dialogue | Winter 2013
08
Although the sun continues to shine over Greece,
improvement. Nevertheless the crisis has polarized
one feels that it is far from as bright as it used to be.
Greeks on a level not witnessed since the end of the
Walking in the streets of Athens is enough to con-
military junta in 1974 with parties continuing to
vince someone that there has been a different at-
disagree on which is the right way forward. If one
mosphere for the majority of the past two and a half
looks closely enough, it becomes ever clearer that
years. Impressive monuments like the Parthenon
what the country has journeyed through is not just
still remain to remind Greeks of the glory days in
an economic crisis, but more potently a crisis of
ancient Athens, a historic past in which many seek
values.
refuge from the stresses of everyday life in the present.
Understanding Greece from the “inside” requires an illustration of the environment. In 2008 after the
The city centre looks full on a weekend night and
subprime crisis, the availability of credit in the in-
the traditional restaurants – tavernas - still manage
ternational markets became ever scarce. Greece,
to serve some customers. Nevertheless the time of
dependent on foreign lending, teetered on the verge
good wine, expensive clubs in Greek islands and
of collapse which in December 2009 resulted in
“la dolce vita” - or as the locals say “the fat cow
Fitch downgrading the creditworthiness of the
period”- seem like a dream that has long faded.
country for the first time in 10 years, to BBB+. Unable to acquire funds from the markets, Greece
The current state of the economy and political sce-
sought help from the IMF in 2010. In May 2010 the
ne are not only the focus of many discussions made
first bailout package of €110 billion was approved
in forums and conferences, but also in the local ta-
by the Greek parliament despite massive demon-
vernas over a glass of ouzo. Greece’s capitulation
strations outside the building. Since then the IMF’s
to the bailouts of the infamous “troika” (the Euro-
agenda of privatization, liberalization and austerity
pean Central Bank, the European Commission and
has been applied with limited success considering
the International Monetary Fund) have been pain-
that Greece will still require more funds in the next
ful, but after significant loans, a cabinet reshuffling
two years.
last year and two elections over the summer, the country seems to be making small steps towards
09
Winter 2013 | Dialogue
Nevertheless many reforms have not yet managed
During an opinion poll in October 2012, 81% of
to be implemented due to the inefficiencies of the
the participants expressed their dissatisfaction with
state apparatus and pressures from interest groups.
the state of democracy in Greece. Growing insecu-
The government’s inability to tackle tax evasion
rities from joblessness and future uncertainty is in-
(loses from which were €42 billion in 2011) has
creasingly giving rise to xenophobia; an alien value
shifted the focus on austerity to deal with the defi-
to a country that once prided itself on hospitality.
cit which in a recent report by the Economist, could
Anti-immigration rhetoric is increasingly employed
possibly reach as much as 190% of GDP by the end
by various right-wing parties who use immigrants
of 2014. That is not to mention the increasing costs
as scapegoats for Greece’s woes. Significantly the
from energy, VAT and transportation which have
far-right party “Golden Dawn” managed to enter
left the prices of basic goods increasingly unafford-
parliament gaining almost 7% of the vote in June
able for many. The massive decrease in aggregate
2012, and according to a 2012 report by Human
demand has resulted in high unemployment (25.1%
Rights Watch, Greece’s level of racist violence is
of the population, 55.6% among the youth in July
on the rise. These conditions create a dangerous
2012), and the closing of small and medium enter-
atmosphere, which many compare to the unstable
prises has led to the erosion of consumer and inves-
situation in the Weimar Republic in Germany dur-
tor confidence. It would appear that austerity is giv-
ing the early 1930s.
ing birth to a vicious cycle, sinking the economy deeper into insolvency.
Undoubtedly Greece makes an interesting case study on the tragic impact of tight economic
On the social aspect, the image is even more critical: a 40% increase in suicides in the first half of 2010, and a rise in prescriptions for antidepressants, indicate a society sinking in line with its economic outlook. Criminality has risen, and the 25% increase in homelessness has left the streets of Athens filled with destitution. Cuts in the healthcare budget of 36% are causing a number of problems, including an approximate 33% surge in HIV. Although NGOs are making valiant efforts to
measures on social prosperity. However recently European leaders have adopted a more positive rhetoric regarding Greece’s reforming progress, and “Grexit” appears less in the headlines. Nevertheless Greece’s woes are not yet over, many challenges lie ahead before this Greek tragedy can come to a close.
ERIC KLOPFER is a second year International Politics BA student at King’s College London.
deal with these problems, they aren’t able to cope with the amounts of people in need of help. Values have not escaped impairment either.
Dialogue | Winter 2013
10
With the wave of austerity measures spreading in southern Europe and the crisis at hand, the strengths of these countries are overshadowed by their flaws, which arise when attempting to analyse the roots of why the European recession has affected this region so harshly. With Greece bordering on financial default and even considering a Euro-exit, and Spain’s unemployment at an unprecedented high, Italy has been portrayed as on an apparent road to recovery since the technocratic government lead by Mario Monti took office in November 2011.
A far cry from the infamously scandalous leadership of Silvio Berlusconi, the Monti administration has been widely praised by international press, accrediting him with having saved the euro through his austerity policies for Italy – Europe’s third largest econo-
my, labelling him “Super Mario” in Germany and gracing the cover of Time Magazine as the man destined to save Europe. However, domestically he has deeply split public opinion, as many condemn him for his harsh austerity measures such as the IMU—a compulsory tax on housing. Italy’s problems are more complex than they may appear: the disillusion toward political elites that appear increasingly out of touch with the people they govern has become a pressing issue over the years, and this is crucial when attempting to decipher the troubles plaguing the Bel Paese.
“
… Monti is 69, Berlusconi was
75 at the time of his resignation, and the likely candidates for the next election are all over 60 years old.”
Italian politics has come under scrutiny over the past two decades at an unprecedented scale, and Berlusconi’s controversial political presence over the past 17 years can largely be held accountable. A media and business tycoon (notably the owner of Mediaset, Italy’s largest television group, as well as the football team AC Milan) and one of Italy’s richest men, Berlusconi was recently sentenced to four years in prison for tax evasion by a Milan court, a decision he will most likely sidestep, as has been the case with the innumerable scandals surrounding him in past few years. Another infamous trial involving him as a protagonist is that surrounding the Rubygate scandal, where Berlusconi has been accused of paying an underage prostitute for sex in October 2010 and then insuring she be freed from an arrest. Finally, the 76
11
Winter 2013 | Dialogue
year old former prime minister caused innumerable media scandals due to his alleged ‘bunga bunga’ parties, which involved a series of young, female escorts attending lavish parties at his private villas in Rome and Milan. Karima El Mahroug, the woman surrounding the Rubygate scandal was known to be among the numerable girls involved, as was Nicole Minetti. Minetti, a 27 year old dental hygienist, was accused of providing escorts for Berlusconi’s parties and caused quite a stir when she was appointed regional councillor for Lombardy (Italy’s wealthiest region, which includes Milan). In many aspects, the somewhat unprofessional leadership of Silvio Berlusconi, teeming with scandals and cover-ups, lead to a deeply negative perception of what Italian politics had become.
Another factor incrementing the disillusion toward politicians is that many citizens do not feel adequately represented by their leaders whom they see as overpaid and unfit for their position. A recent study placed Italian politicians as the highest paid in the European Union, earning around €20.600 in monthly stipend, compared to €12.860 in Germany and €4.945 in Spain. It is no doubt that as people face tax increases for new austerity measures, such statistics only serve to further amplify scepticism toward politicians. Worth noting is the creation of the populist Movimento 5 Stelle, the Five Star Movement, created by comedian turned politician Beppe Grillo. Refusing to call itself a political “party” per se, what started off as a vociferous and satirical platform to condemn political corruption, the Movement is now even contending for the upcoming Parliamentary elections. What is more notable than Grillo’s political group itself is what it represents: it reflects just how exasperated ordinary Italians have become with their decision makers, whom they consider outdated and plagued with nepotism. Thus many people feel out of touch with the political elites, believing they often make a mockery of the country, and are pushed to further disassociate themselves from the political process.
tional contrast felt socially and reflected politically. Many young people do not feel that their members of parliament adequately represent them, and the grim economic situation means many have second thoughts about their future as professionals in Italy. They believe that only by pursuing a career abroad can they hope to succeed after their studies, and losing its most promising talents will only hinder Italy’s future ability to compete in the global market. Fabio Marzaili, a student at Milan’s renowned Bocconi University in Milan, finds that his future in Italy is “limited”, and while there is ambition and determination among students, what is lacking is a belief in them from above. Their argument that politicians may be outdated and unappealing to the younger generation is not totally unfounded. In fact, Monti is 69, Berlusconi was 75 at the time of his resignation, and the likely candidates for the next election are all over 60 years old. Only 7% of MPs are under 40 in the Chamber of Deputes while women are even more underrepresented, making up a mere 15% of the present cabinet and Italy ranks 67th in the world for number of female parliamentarians. It is clear that Italian politics needs to replenish itself by becoming a system more open to change, listening to the voices of a new – and fed up – generation and it must overcome the inertia of this aged and out of touch system so strongly characterised by corruption and favouritism. CHRISTINA ANAGNOSTOPOULOS is a second year European Studies BA student at King’s College London
What must also be held into account is the now ever more apparent gap between young and old, a generaDialogue | Winter 2013
12
The year 2012 marks over 20 years since the dissolution
according to the prominent Russian politician Alexander
of the Soviet Union on Boxing Day 1991. 20 years for a
Voloshin, ‘Putin is not against modernization in Rus-
scarred country to change, evolve and survive. Claiming
sia’. However according to Kasyanov the current prime
fame as the largest country in the world, Russia’s turbu-
minister Dmitry Medvedev is not regarded as indepen-
lent history is renowned as her economic power in
dent politician from Putin, meaning that his words and
energy. Nevertheless one can boldly argue that nothing
actions ‘carry no weight’ in the eyes of the public. Ka-
has changed politically in the last 20 years, today the
syanov goes further to state that ‘Medvedev argues for
country faces significant political and economic pro-
modernisation, but he does not believe that political re-
blems which are restraining Russia’s ability to further
form is required in order to achieve it.’ It is this change
develop and fulfill her potential as a BRIC nation, and
through political reform that is particularly needed to
putting the country in the dangerous position of rever-
tackle Russia’s corruption which even Putin has said
ting back to pre-1991 troubles.
‘has reached unparalleled levels’ with formal government bypassed by informal networks, leaving Russians
Many international and widely respected scholars like to
with the uncomfortable reality: – to get something done
blame Russia’s situation on her beloved fourth-time lea-
one simply needs to bribe the right person.
der Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, but blame also comes from within Russia’s own ranks. Mikhail Kasy-
Similarly foreign relations and Russia’s economic situ-
anov, former Prime Minister of Russia who was in of-
ation are areas of concern. Kasyanov argues that Rus-
fice from 2000 to 2004 during Putin’s first presidency,
sia’s unfortunate human rights record ‘compels the West
has taken a critical stance on his one-time successor sta-
to treat Russia as a country alien to European norms and
ting that ‘during Putin’s second term all democratic in-
values’. Recent events certainly support this perception
stitutions were gradually abolished’ and that ‘the system
with the so-called “Anti-NGO” bill, which forbids
of electoral democracy has entirely disappeared’. Kasy-
foreign involvement in domestic social causes, and the
anov refers to the ‘shameless falsification of the recent
“Anti-Gay” bill, which equates homosexuality to pe-
local elections’ as a case in point, with Marie Mendras’s
dophilia, both being passed by the Kremlin. Further-
book The Paradox of a Weak State arguing that the de-
more Russia’s commodity led market is predicted to
gree of fraud in Russia’s “free and fair” election system
continue to suffer through 2013, even Putin’s key sup-
ultimately points to a weakness in the regime and reluc-
port Alexander Voloshin admits that Russia suffers
tance to change.
from a ‘significant technological and innovation lag’. The need to modernize the mechanics of the economy
Today one of Russia’s biggest problems remains to be
and diversify the economy away from its reliance on
the contentious issue of change. Change is necessary for
energy remains the biggest hurdle if Russia is to com-
modernisation and international competitiveness, and
pete with her BRIC rivals.
13
Winter 2013 | Dialogue
Nonetheless not all is a dark as it seems. Putin has
litically, Putin’s move to take office for the fourth
taken steps to integrate women with appropriately
time has not inspired this atmosphere of change, ins-
sophisticated qualification into significant positions
tead many reminisce that it is like returning to old
of responsibility in the Duma. It would seem that
days of the USSR with corruption still rife. Robert
with such careful selection of these female members,
Dahl famously argued that legitimacy lay in de-
that they are not just there for decorative purposes.
mocracy, something that Russia certainly believes she
Equally, it would be fair to point out that there are
has, when in fact recent government bills and the do-
people who don’t participate in corruption, with Vo-
mestic outcry over the Pussy Riot case would indicate
loshin highlighting that ‘many decent, dedicated pe-
otherwise. The failure for these reforms to happen
ople working in government who are not motivated
ultimately must rest on those who have the power to
by money’. Moreover, some reform has been carried
pass them, as it is the interests of those select indi-
out. Putin has implemented significant reforms in the
viduals which would particularly be damaged through
tax system and passed a land reform which allows the
a restructuring of power. Russia has considerable po-
private ownership of agriculture land – which can be
tential to fulfill her BRIC status as the country is en-
seen as a big step away from Russia’s traditional
dowed with the necessary tools, unfortunately, it
communist roots.
lacks the drive to wield them.
Overall it would seem that if Russia is to develop
FIONA LÖFFEL is a second year Russian Studies
further, Russia must wholeheartedly embrace reform.
student at University College London
Economically the key drivers should be economic diversification and the privatization of industry. Po-
Dialogue | Winter 2013
14
Another grand summit, another postponement of the
go through now, with judicial and political decisions
big decisions. The streets of Athens, the home of de-
being overruled, he would be turning in his grave or
mocracy, resembles a disaster zone. Even Medicines
on the verge of going on a cognac-fuelled rant.
“
Sans Frontiers, which operates in third world countries, has now started providing healthcare in Greece
- their first mission in a western nation. Europe, along with Britain, has big choices to make.
… We want an independent Britain: trading with its allies, but governing itself.”
Many claim that it is not a central issue in the British
electorate’s mind. But the tentacles touch every part
It is impossible to think that the continent of Europe
of our national fabric, from competition laws, to jus-
can be a centralised federal state like that of the Unit-
tice, immigration, national security and so forth.
ed States of America. The continent is too diverse,
Most British Conservatives want a new relationship
politically, economically and socially for us to be
with the EU, based on free trade, intergovernmental
united only through sentiment. This is what makes
co-operation and alliance. We want Britain to work
each of our individual nation-states great, but it is
closely with its neighbours while retaining autonomy
also why Brussels cannot create a European national-
over its domestic affairs. We want us to remain full
ity.
partners in the single market, but we don’t believe that this requires us to accept the primacy of EU over
We want an independent Britain: trading with its al-
British law.
lies, but governing itself. Now of course this would entail withdrawing from a range of agreements such
The principle of sovereignty is key. But it is a serious
as European Trading Emissions Schemes, the ECHR
problem when we cannot deport those we believe to
and the Common Agricultural Policies amongst
be a threat to our national security. It is a problem
many others. Some will say that we’ll never achieve
when unelected European judges overrule our parlia-
all these objectives. We are not so pessimistic. The
ment’s and supreme courts decision to deny prisoners
relationship we have outlined is very similar to the
the vote. Many state Sir Winston Churchill as a great
one already enjoyed by Switzerland, the precedent
advocate of the European Court of Human Rights
exists.
(ECHR), but this was in the time of communist gulags and the deepest darkest depths of war. If he
We want to be in Europe - so long as it serves our
could witness what British politicians are having to
needs. An audit by the Foreign Office and the Treas-
15
Winter 2013 | Dialogue
ury is expected to announce in 2014 that we are now
grabs your arm and renegotiates, giving you what
net contributors to the EU by several billions of
you want. Why else has Germany, France et al not
pounds. The eurozone crisis is another symptom of
told us to leave? - because they value us, but not
the failures of the European political and economic
enough.
model. Leaders such as Barosso, Rompuy and Merkel just keep putting plasters of bailouts on the giant
If it is not on offer, so be it. It is at a time of crisis
bleeding open wound that is the massive financial
when one re-evaluates one’s relationship with the
deficit across the PIGS nations (Portugal, Ireland,
entity in question, not during the ‘good times’. We
Greece and Spain). The only two solutions are polit-
are the seventh largest economy on Earth, the
ically unpalatable to the European political elites
fourth military power, a member of the G8 and one
and the general European populations - either let the
of five permanent seat-holders on the UN Security
grand European project collapse - the nightmare of
Council. We have the 53 commonwealth nations, in
the elites, or turn to greater centralisation of Europe
which our relationship is changing greatly from aid,
with Germany at the centre of the decision-making
to trade. Our tongue is the most widely spoken on
process.
the planet. We are connected by law and language, by habit and sentiment, to every continent. Leaving
The UK has no intention of joining the euro, but we
the EU holds no terrors for us. The fact of the mat-
have an interest in seeing our geographical allies
ter is, it is an all-or-nothing challenge - either the
prosper. Many claim that Europe is half our export
European leaders need to take bold and necessary
market, but they say it as if Britain should be proud
decisions, or inevitably the British people will
of the fact we trade more to Ireland than the BRIC
make it for them.
nations combined, whilst the European market contracts quarter after quarter. But the ultimate judge of whether we’ve secured a good enough deal shouldn’t be me – or, indeed, any of the other party leaders. It should be the British
YAZDAN CHOWDHURY is the External Relations and Communications Officer for KCL Conservative Society and a BA student at King’s College London’s Department of War Studies.
people via a referendum at least 18 months from now. We will use the intervening period to seek to bring back the aforementioned improvements. If we get most of what we want, then we stay, and if we don’t, we leave. Not using the threat of leaving is like buying a car from a dodgy second-hand car salesman. If you tell him ‘regardless of what you say, I am buying a car from you today’, then of course you are going to get a shoddy deal. But it is only when you threaten to leave that the salesman Dialogue | Winter 2013
16
Propaganda and strategic communications are essential tools of national policy. In his 1942 study of war propaganda, Edward Bernays found that the “attitudes and actions” of foreign and domestic audiences were greatly influenced by the effective marketing of “national aims and policies.” Today, the marketing of national goals and policies takes place on a 24-hour news cycle, and in various online social networks. Consequently, national marketing and propaganda are always present in the social space of modern society. The contest for influence between the United States and China presents an interesting case study. While the United States holds formidable soft power resources in its culture and commerce, China has been making great advancements in selling its national narrative. To understand this phenomenon, it is necessary to understand the key components of an effective national marketing campaign - framing, connecting words with actions, and appealing to emotions and values instead of facts - using the communications campaigns of China and the United States.
17
Frame the Message Framing is the most fundamental tool of a persuasive communicator. As a rhetorical tool, framing is “a process whereby communicators, consciously or unconsciously, act to construct a point of view that encourages the facts of a given situation to be interpreted by others in a particular manner.” Cognitive linguists and politicians regularly use framing to alter perceptions in order to generate intended results. The USA PATRIOT Act is a perfect example. In the wake of 9/11, how could American politicians vote against an act that alludes to the concept of patriotism? The language and the evoked frame conspired against them – by voting against the act, these lawmakers would be perceived as unpatriotic. President George W. Bush used framing effectively when he successfully branded lowering taxes as “tax relief.” As George Lakoff points out, the frame implies that taxes are something inherently burdensome that must be relieved. Every time Democrats inadvertently use the phrase “tax re-
Winter 2013 | Dialogue
lief” they are successfully spreading Republican anti-tax propaganda. On an international scale, these principles work the same: countries want other countries to use their frames. The Chinese concepts of “peaceful rise” and “peaceful development” are similarly infectious. When American pundits and news outlets repeat these concepts, the notion of “peaceful” becomes inextricably associated with perceptions of China. But in order for such a message to truly “stick,” the message must be perceived as true.
Establish Credibility by Connecting Words with Actions China’s “peaceful rise” narrative is effective only if it appears true. Words therefore are important, but coordinating both actions and words is essential to an effective communications campaign. The recent controversy over the issuance of new Chinese passports illustrates this concept. In a shortsighted display of territorial ambitions, China issued new
Dialogue | Winter 2013
passports with a map that altered its borders to include Taiwan and the entire South China Sea. This aggressive claim of foreign territory undermines China’s suggestion that it is rising peacefully.
“
… ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’ allows the Chinese leadership to portray their system of governance as an ordinary brand of democratic socialism.”
But China is not the only country that contradicts is own rhetoric. During part of the War on Terror, the United States sacrificed its credibility by simultaneously advocating human rights and the rule of law while subjecting Al-Qaeda suspects to extraordinary rendition. The ultimate purpose of coordinating words and actions is to maintain credibility – without credibility, attempts at persuasive communication are futile.
18
Sell Values, Not Attributes In the movie “Thank You for Smoking,” Aaron Eckhart plays a lobbyist who demonstrates to his son the importance of argumentation by using a debate over the best flavor of ice cream as an analogy. Instead of marketing vanilla ice cream by highlighting its attributes, Eckhart declares that he needs more than chocolate or vanilla ice cream, and that he believes that “we need freedom and choice… and that is the definition of liberty.” His son is visibly confused by this apparent divergence from the discussion of ice cream, and does not understand that his father was winning the debate by selling values instead of attributes. Though everyone does not prefer vanilla ice cream to chocolate, most people would identify with the need for freedom and choice. It is no accident that the United States has marketed itself using phrases such as “the free world” instead of appealing to the quantitative advantages of American liberal capitalism. Appealing to values is a device that is closely related to framing – the rhetoric of “the free world” employs framing by implying that there is a corresponding part of the world that is not free.
Framing and using values to tell stories requires an understanding of culture. For instance, a Chinese citizen might interpret the concepts of “human rights” and “republic” very differently compared to a citizen of the United States. In order to be persuasive on any given issue, one must understand the position from which others must be persuaded.
National Marketing is Here to Stay At the recent 18th Chinese Communist Party Congress, both Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping regularly used phrases such as “moderately prosperous society” and “socialism with Chinese characteristics.” The repetition of such phrases reflects the desire of the Chinese Communist Party to communicate a consistent message. Ultimately, “moderately prosperous” and “socialism with Chinese characteristics” do not provide useful starting points for factual analysis, but they incorporate the key aspects of effective national marketing. The suggestion that Chinese society will be “moderately prosperous” uses framing to incite imagery of a reasonable, quiet pace of development which sounds benign, and is therefore a useful tool for managing international perceptions of a developing China. Similarly, “socialism with Chinese characteristics” allows the Chinese leadership to portray their system of governance as an ordinary brand of democratic socialism. Another illustration of similar marketing practices can be found in the official name of one of China’s neighbors – The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is clearly not democratic, cannot be considered a republic, and hardly belongs to its people, yet it attempts to portray itself as being each one of these. The attempt is doomed; though the DPRK attempts to sell values, it does not have an effective frame, and totally lacks credibility. States will continue to attempt national marketing campaigns, but if all three components of national marketing are not jointly implemented, these campaigns are likely to fail.
PETER CORNETT is a MA student at the King’s College London War Studies department.
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Winter 2013 | Dialogue
“Aid is the past and trade is the future”, with these words India crossed yet another milestone on its journey to regain its place in the global order. While in the UK the debate about ending development aid centred on select trivia, like highlighting India’s expensive space programme, what got ignored was the fact that it is also a rising power in the international development arena. The £220m it was receiving from Britain pales in comparison to India’s own ambitious aid plans. Earlier this year it set up its own development agency with a five year budget of over $15bn and careful not to be seen as yet another ‘donor’, the initiative has been named Development Partnership Administration. Confident yet tentative; India is banking as much on ‘soft’ loans and its ‘soft power’ as on its strategic and military muscle.
“
… What India needs is to find its voice and speak confidently on issues that really matter.”
With the advent of globalisation, it has become fashionable to argue that along with rising economic clout, India’s cultural ‘brands’ like Buddha and Bollywood can propel it further into global superstardom. There is no denying that Indian films have long been a major draw among international audiences, ordinary people around the world gleefully suspend disbelief and escape into the Technicolor world of melodramas and fantasy tales of heroism. And it is also true that Indian diaspora and its cultural icons share with globalisation the idea of ‘hybridity’ and hence can add to India’s global appeal. The ubiquity of chicken tikka masala in Britain is often cited as a case of its growing ‘soft power’. But Bollywood fantasy tales can hardly be a substitute for political posturing. Doling international aid is also inadequate to Dialogue | Winter 2013
sustain a serious political agenda. What India needs is to find its voice and speak confidently on issues that really matter.
It’s a post- Al Jazeera world Even in this informational era, no nation can impress the world by staying mute on contentious politics. Despite globalisation, perhaps because of it, brute economic and social realities are what most people and governments care about. And they would want to know India’s stand on issues that still divide the world. Where is the voice of India on Arab uprisings, on the global financial crisis and the future of capitalism, on climate change and the ‘new normal’ of oil prices? If there is one place the world gathers to discuss and deliberate on these issues, it is in the global public sphere, both online and in the international broadcasting arena. American networks ranging from the classic propagandist channels to the privately owned CNN International were early movers, and alongside the BBC and Murdoch’s Sky News they have incessantly expanded their reach since the first Gulf war. But since then several new actors including Russia’s RT, France’s News24, China’s CCTV, Iran’s PRESS TV, Venezuela’s Tele SUR, and numerous other state and nonstate news broadcasters now reach not just the English speaking world but also the Arabic, Francophone, Spanish and Lusophone audiences worldwide. But perhaps the most ambitious and successful new player in this arena is Qatar’s Al Jazeera. Such is the credibility and appeal of its broadcasts that the joke in diplomatic circles is that Al Jazeera is a country with Qatar as its capital! A few years ago when the former Egyptian President M.H. Mubaraq visited Qatar, like most foreign digni20
taries in this tiny GCC country he went to see the Al Jazeera studios. He is said to have quipped "All this noise from this matchbox?" The fact that a few years later Al Jazeera had some role in ending Mubaraq’s regime is an instructive tale for anyone interested in the changing nature of power in the 21st century. Almost no aspiring nation, whether pursuing a ‘hard’ or a ‘soft’ route to global power, whether a democracy or an authoritarian dictatorship, can ignore the success of Al Jazeera. Hence it is even more surprising that despite its vibrant domestic press, a constitutional democratic tradition and above all its ‘argumentative tradition’, India should remain an exception when it comes to international broadcasting.
What happened, how did India lose its voice? If one looks back at its strategic and diplomatic history it is indeed striking that even as its economic and military power has grown, India’s voice in the global arena has receded. It is also surprising given that India’s own founding father and one of the most famous democrats of the 20th century, Jawaharlal Nehru, surpassed all his contemporaries when it comes to publicly engaging the world on contentious issues. He was particularly assertive when championing the cause of the Third World and its fight against imperialism. His robust, perhaps occasionally hoary, speeches inspired a generation of campaigners for democracy; South Africa’s Nelson Mandela and Burma’s Aung San Suu Kyi count him among their heroes. The reason why India lacks its international voice today perhaps goes all the way back to the decades that followed after Nehru.
From the late 1960s onwards India slowly slid into a post-colonial spiral, its secular internationalist vision overwhelmed by a rising tide of authoritarianism and narrow cultural nationalism at home. Despite the tremendous surge in ‘South-South’ broadcasting agenda promoted by the UNESCO and NWICO debates in the late 1970s, India failed to cease the momentum in international broadcasting arena. To highlight the failure, a critic drew comparison between Nehru visionary ideas to his daughter Indira ‘televisionary’ instincts. Like many others in the postcolonial world, 21
Indian leadership after Nehru had an instinctive mistrust of a liberal press agenda, and sadly, ever since its birth, India’s public broadcaster has languished in bureaucratic red-tape.
A shared agenda, a new voice in Asia The primary rationale why India must aspire to regain its international voice is because its development goals remain unfulfilled. As a natural heir to its ‘NonAligned’ legacy, an independent Indian (tele) vision, articulated through international broadcasting, could even align and synchronise its development agenda with its Asian neighbourhood, if not with the rest of the developing world. International broadcasting could give the Indian civil society a novel platform to discuss and shape the global development agenda, and simultaneously opening a window for others to see how a Third World postcolonial nation struggles to stay on its democratic course. Given their own record on press freedom at home, countries like China and Russia can hardly impress an attentive global audience.
Al Jazeera’ literally translates as ‘The Island’, and it represents a solitary yet a very liberal and progressive vision a modern monarch, the Emir of Qatar. A nonaligned Indian broadcaster could offer an even wider news agenda. In the 21st century it is a remarkable anachronism that despite being home to over a fifth of the world's population, even today there is no South-Asian news network that has a focus on Asia let alone the world. Instead of being an island, India could become what an Indian political theorist called it, a ‘bridging power’. The world awaits an international broadcaster that seeks to bridge the great divides of our time, between development and sustainability, between growth and equality, between freedoms and responsibilities, and most vitally, between the West and the rest.
AASIM KHAN is a PhD Candidate at the King’s College London India Institute
Winter 2013 | Dialogue
Dialogue | Winter 2013
22
Overshadowed by the US presidential election, the introduction of China’s new leader Xi Jinping at the 18
th
cy, the initiative explicitly called for political reforms in more competitive intra-party elections to choose CCP
National Congress is significant far beyond China’s bor-
officials.
ders. As a leadership change that only happens once in
Since 1982 some Chinese authorities have adopted a
decade, China’s rapid growth and expansion under Hu
more competitive method of election which allowed
Jintao leaves Xi Jinping confronting difficult questions
multiple candidates to run for a single seat on the Cen-
of wider reform in the coming decade. The idea that
tral Committee (cha’e xuanju). Jiangsu Province was a
China stands at this “crossroads” of reform has been
pioneering area for this approach from 2002 to 2007
mentioned repeatedly in both international and domestic
under the leadership of the local Party Secretary Li
media, nevertheless the western press remains sceptical
Yuanchao. In September 2009, a total of 363 party com-
that reform can be facilitated by a politburo where the
mittees belonging to local neighborhoods had direct
majority indicate a strong conservative stance.
elections for their local Party leaders.
The past decades has seen China undergo a transition
Similarly in Guangdong Province, “Guidelines for Go-
from a monolithic party apparatus, led by a single strong leader, to a diverse system of collective leadership, where competition among rival factions is far more accepted into the government system. It is now questions of political, rather economic, reform that are being widely discussed. A recent poll by China’s newspaper People’s Daily confirmed this idea and highlighted the three driving forces of this movement: the development of a public democracy, the expansion of intraparty democracy and a greater transparency in government administration.
Intra-Party Democracy: Pilot Projects and Prospects Ever since the issue of “intra-party democracy” was raised in the 15th National Congress, it has subsequently been widely criticised as “asking a doctor to perform surgery on his or her own body”. As a direct challenge to the Chinese Communist Party’s top-down democra-
23
vernment Reforms in Shenzhen for the Short-Term Future” was posted on the website of the municipal government in May 2008. It specified that delegates to the district or municipal People’s Congresses in Shenzhen would elect heads of districts and through the new competitive system. Four heads of municipal bureaus were elected in this way, each chosen from a group of two or three candidates. The success of the pilot projects under the leadership of Wang Yang laid the groundwork for applying this method to the election for Mayor and Vice – Mayor of Shenzhen, a city of 10 million people. However in the recent 18th National Congress, the two leading contributors of these experimental reforms, Li Yuanchao and Wang Yang, who had been not only been seen as stars of China’s political reform but also promising politburo members, failed to gain a seat in the Standing Committee. On the one hand it would seem that this reflects the wider party’s rejection of such radical reform approaches, but in fact it may rather be a rejection of Wang Yang’s method, not his ideals.
Winter 2013 | Dialogue
Public Democracy:
take one's own words as the law, place one's own aut-
Transforming the National People’s Congress
hority above the law or abuse the law.” How this will
th
determine interpretations of the constitution is critical,
The report of the 18 Party Congress highlighted that
but the key challenge is the execution. One significant
the reform of the National People Congress’ (NPC) has
omission in the report is the reference to the regulation
taken place by “reducing the proportion of party cadres
for disclosing personal assets of officials in the legisla-
in the National People Congress and other legislative
tive body. This omission suggests that obstruction from
bodies”. The significance of this rests in the NPC’s
within the party remains the biggest hurdle in the
ability to make important nation-wide political decis-
execution in the intended anti-corruption legislation.
ions such as: the amendment and enforcement of the constitution, the enactment of basic laws and the
The report of the 18th Party Congress seems more like a
election and appointment of members to central state
compass than a clear map that outlines China’s future
positions. Given that 70% of the Congress are party
under Xi Jinping. The pressure for the future is high,
members, the NPC has been labelled a “rubber stamp
with just over seven years until 2020 where China’s
parliament” by the critics. A reform which could reduce
government is hoping to meet Hu Jintao’s promise of
the proportion of party members in the NPC would al-
building “a moderately prosperous society in all re-
low non-party members to have equal influence within
spects, with deepening reform and opening up”. This
the NPC and also appease the critics.
declaration will make it increasingly imperative for Xi Jinping to have a substantial response to the citizen’s
Anti-Corruption: A Long Road A further issue that the recent 18th Party Congress tackled was corruption. The report expressed the intent to
appeals for reform, but internal opposition from within the party may still grind the wheels of progress to a halt.
“eliminate the abuse of government power” and emphasized that “no organization or individual has the privilege of overstepping the constitution and laws, and no one in a position of power is allowed in any way to
Dialogue | Winter 2013
LIJUAN DONG is an MA student at King’s College London’s Department of Political Economy
24
As the 18th largest country in the world with a populat-
Iran is seeking nuclear weapons. Despite Tehran’s
ion of 75 million, Iran is not particularly noted for its
emphasis on its peaceful purposes, there remains a
ancient history or its vibrant culture in western headli-
growing concern over its ambitions to weaponize. Much
nes, but is instead rather infamous for its nuclear pro-
of these concerns are primarily rooted in lack of con-
gram. The international community debates diplomacy
structive diplomatic channels and the historical tensions
and war as the two resolutions to the Iranian nuclear
between Iran and the West – most notably with the U.S.
crisis. As the former fails to succeed, the supporters of the latter call for war. However, another alternative ex-
Second, let us assume that diplomacy fails. International
ists which has been lost in the fog of war: deterring a
and unilateral sanctions have been used as diplomatic
nuclear Iran. If diplomacy fails, deterring a nuclear Iran
means to increase the costs for Iran and promote nego-
is a politically painful, but the strategically effective
tiations. Supporters of the sanctions insist on the increa-
policy to consider.
sing pressure on the Iranian economy and its opponents emphasize the way in which sanctions have become the
For a better understanding of the dynamics of this crisis,
end instead of means for promoting negotiations. But
let us make two assumptions. First, let us assume that
one matter is clear: the sanctions are yet to succeed in
Dialogue | Winter 2013
26
achieving their objective of bringing parties to the nego-
London discussed the enormous costs of developing
tiation table, leaving us with the scenario that diplo-
nuclear programs in the Middle East to concluded that
macy has failed.
“regional proliferation is not a very likely outcome at
“ all”.
Under such a scenario there are two propositions: a military operation by Israel or the U.S. against the Iranian ambitions, or deterring a nuclear Iran. The proponents of a military operation justify their case on the bases of the dangers of a nuclear Iran, among other arguments, prominently claiming that it will trigger a reg-
… The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has gone as far as comparing the impacts of
ional arms race and annihilates Israel. In doing so, they
“a nuclear-armed Iran to the Nazi
misunderstand the consequences of a nuclear Iran and
Holocaust”.
underestimate the immense complexity of this military operation.
The second prominent argument for a military operation against Iran claims that it will threaten the existence of
They argue that if Iran obtains the weapon it will trigger
Israel. Statements by Iranian statesmen are cited to de-
a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. The Arabic ne-
monstrate the irrationality of Iranian leaders and their
ighbors of Iran and Turkey will pursue their own nu-
intents to annihilate Israel. The Israeli Prime Minister,
clear weapons programs, creating hyper-proliferation in
Benjamin Netanyahu, has gone as far as comparing the
an already volatile region. Support for this argument has
impacts of “a nuclear-armed Iran to the Nazi Ho-
come from the published private conversations of Arab
locaust”.
leaders by Wikileaks, as well as public statements by the Turkish President.
Nevertheless the Iranian leaders should be perceived as rational and fundamentally interested in the preservat-
But the reality is different than the rhetoric. Developing
ion of their regime. After the 1979 Islamic revolution,
nuclear programs is far too complex to achieve in the
Iran has been using its Islamic political identity to
short term. In fact, the Iranian nuclear program itself
obtain regional hegemony. Their statements should the-
dates back to the 1950s. In 1963, U.S. President, JF
refore be seen as a tool of Iranian soft power, aiming to
Kennedy predicted additional “twenty-five nuclear
increase Iran’s regional influence in the anti-Israeli at-
weapons powers within” a decade. After four decades,
mosphere of the Middle East. Moreover, they are fully
there are only four more. Instead, the military alliance
aware of the balance of power in the region. Not only
of the United States with many countries can provide
does the United States have very close military alliance
the necessary security assurances against a nuclear Iran
with Israel, but Israel is also estimated to have over 200
to prevent an arms race. Ironically, after Israel obtained
nuclear weapons with second strike capability. There-
nuclear weapons, the same Arabic states relied on the
fore, the costs of Iran using nuclear missiles to anni-
U.S. security guarantees and did not go nuclear. A simi-
hilate Israel, for an Iranian regime focused on survival,
lar trend was seen with South-Korea and Japan, after
would be too grave to consider.
the 2006 North-Korean nuclear test. Consequently, a
Likewise, the proponents of this military operat-
recent study conducted by scholars at King’s College
ion underestimate its complexities. The highly secured
27
Winter 2013 | Dialogue
Iranian nuclear facilities, unlike previous cases in Iraq
can interests. Indeed, if the Iranian regime is as irrat-
and Syria, are spread along a large country with some
ional as the proponents of such operation claim, this
centers buried deeply underground. According to U.S.
limited operation will turn into a full-scale war.
and Israeli assessments, a successful operation delays Iran’s ambitions limiting its benefits to two to four
Considering its costs and benefits, a military operation
years.
against Iran would be a deconstructive and harmful approach that will fail to achieve its objective: prevenHowever, its costs will be enormous. The debate
ting a weaponized Iran. Diplomacy continues to have
within the Iranian regime will shift in support of anti-
the chance of clarifying Iran’s intentions and provi-
Western figures that favor military retaliation rather
ding a successful agreement. But if it fails to do so,
than diplomacy. With a nationalistic society and anti-
deterring a nuclear Iran will be the politically painful
Western regional sympathies, they will be supported.
but strategically effective option. One that must in-
As Iran has clarified, it may exit the Non-Proliferation
volve clear red lines by the international community
Treaty (NPT) to dismiss the current limited Internat-
against use or spread of nuclear weapons by Iran,
ional Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring. The-
military alliances to prevent an arms race and Cold-
reby it will have the justification to secretively develop
War style communication networks with Tehran for
nuclear weapons on defensive grounds. Meanwhile, it
crisis management.
can blockade the strait of Hormuz; a critical oil trading path, to threaten global economic recovery and mobilize its proxies to undermine the Israeli and Ameri-
Dialogue | Winter 2013
RAMTIN HAJIMONSHI is a second year International Studies student at King’s College London
28
The ceasefire reached between Israel and Hamas on 21st
preferring to allow Israel to pick up the baton and sort
November represents a surprising arc regarding Egypt’s
disputes themselves, while superficially placating the
role in truce negotiations. Initial fears formed in the
Palestinians. Indeed, the comparison with the post-
aftermath of elections in May 2011 that the Muslim
Mubarak era is stark; Morsi has been at the forefront of
Brotherhood would serve as bulwark to regional peace
ceasefire negotiations.
prospects, have been shattered by the plaudits that have reigned in on President Mohammad Morsi by the
Discussions during the crisis took place between the
international community. Arriving as an unknown
Egyptian and Israelis through the intelligence services, in
quantity, Morsi has effectively transitioned from the head
which demands were forwarded from Hamas to Israel,
of an Islamist organisation that refuses to directly engage
concurrent to direct talks with Hamas leaders in Gaza.
with Israelis, to a man that is now Israel’s de facto
Morsi was delicately obliged to meet international
protector. Indeed, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
expectation while reflecting the wider Egyptian public
among others has praised Morsi’s “personal leadership” in
opinion, which overwhelmingly favours the Palestinian
brokering the ceasefire. However, a call by Mohammed
cause. As such, a number of challenges await. First and
Badei, the Muslim Brotherhood’s top cleric, for jihad on
foremost, the Morsi administration in Cairo must prevent
the liberation of Palestinian territories highlights the
the carriage of Iranian-assembled Fajr-5 medium-range
fractious nature of the peace at hand.
rockets via Sudan through the numerous Gaza border tunnels.
The Israeli offensive, Operation Pillar of Defence which began on 14th November saw some 1,500 airstrikes on
The difficulty facing the Muslim Brotherhood government
Hamas-related targets in Gaza, as Hamas and associated
is that Hamas is very much its political offspring, and as
militant groups deployed hundreds of rockets into Israel, a
such a degree of affinity is at hand. An important by-
few as far as Tel Aviv. More than 160 Palestinians and six
product is that Morsi is not inhibited by a requirement to
Israelis have been killed. The clashes represent the most
limited Hamas gains from any truce. He made it explicit
serious fighting since the Israeli invasion of Gaza in late
during an address at the UN General Assembly in
2008-early 2009. As Palestinian President Mahmoud
September, that while the Muslim Brotherhood would
Abbas’s Fatah party remains impotent in the Gaza Strip,
honour the 1978 Camp David peace treaty, it would also
alternative third parties remain in short supply.
seek to “challenge the status quo”.
Egypt has long celebrated its cultural and diplomatic
Yet within this conundrum, the truce established requires
power in the region yet had appeared to become
Hamas to prove it is still the guardian of the Palestinian
exceedingly peripheral under previous president Hosni
resistance movement. This includes restraining smaller
Mubarak. Prior conflicts between Israel and Hamas would
Salafist pockets within Gaza, particularly the Iran-backed
see Mubarak distance himself from the Hamas leadership,
Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Should Gaza be stabilised with a
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Winter 2013 | Dialogue
Hamas leadership, the greater likelihood of the strip morphing
willingness to engage with Morsi. Borne not so much
into a second Palestinian statelet. Naturally, there are
out of confidence in Morsi, Israel’s agreement is rather
limitations to the degree of responsibility both Cairo and Israel
a recognition and consciousness that Egypt represents
will accept regarding Gaza.
its best hope of restraining Hamas rocket attacks. The Muslim Brotherhood, though a less flexible partner, is
With the opening of border crossings a key aspect of the
now arguably a stronger partner.
ceasefire, Egyptian influence is paramount. It remains highly unlikely that Cairo would agree to open the Rafah crossing
Cairo’s
enthusiasm for
negotiating a
ceasefire
without reciprocal action by Israel as Egypt is unwilling to bear
agreement is perhaps influenced by the need to
any liability from Gaza. To do so could severely impact
establish a credible regime in a region on the back end
lingering hopes for a unified Palestinian state.
of the Arab Spring, and increase its standing in the White House. Egypt is currently experiencing a
Nonetheless, the mobilisation of Israeli troops along the Gaza
multitude of economic, social and political problems,
border could have made this a reality. Had IDF troops invaded,
which some critics have argued are being neglected as
Morsi would have been under considerable pressure to open
Morsi traverses the international arena. Crucially, the
Egypt’s north-eastern border to refugees. A great deal can be
constitutional writing process is rapidly deteriorating
learnt about Egypt’s newly found exalted position from Israel
along Islamist-liberal lines, as clashes erupt between police and protesters on the streets of Cairo. These is are likely to be exacerbated by a US$4.8bn IMF loan, obliging it to end subsidies on items such as fuel that will inevitably lead to price rises at a time of economic suffering. Nevertheless, the prospects for reconciliation are best purported by Egypt. As Qatar and Turkey begin to play vital roles in mediating conflicts across the region, an emboldened Egypt on the international stage is ideally placed to ensure the ceasefire holds. Hamas is walking a tightrope should it violate the agreement as it risks emerging from the conflict with a colossal loss of sympathy. The essential caveat facing Hamas would be if was forced to justify to President Morsi, and not Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as to why it placed Egypt’s newly found credibility on the line.
FARAZ NASIR is analyst at a global risk management company and a former MA student in the War Studies department at King’s College London.
Dialogue | Winter 2013
30
Born amidst waves of revolution and independence from
irrigation on export industrial crops and on key self-
neighbouring authoritarian regimes, Syria’s struggle for de-
sufficiency crops has not only damaged the salinity of farm-
mocracy continues with no definite end in sight. President
land, but also amplified the water scarcity crisis in rural areas.
Bashar al-Assad, of the Socialist Ba’ath party, continues to
This has left many rural areas impoverished, and has led to
fend off domestic opposition in a bloody wrestle for power.
more disapproval of Assad’s leadership.
As we now step into the crisis’ second year, we should reflect on the origins of the conflict and its impact in the international political arena.
However, the present suffering of Syrian civilians overshadows long established, underlying issues. Figures dating from the end of 2012 estimate that the civilian death toll under the
To begin to understand what the future for Syria may look
hands of Assad and his government stand at around 40,000.
like, it is important to examine the foundations of the current
However, in early 2013, the United Nation’s (UN) estimates
conflict. Beginning in March 2011, waves of public protests
argue that it stands closer to 60,000. Assad’s regime has uti-
were triggered by the torture of a group of teenagers by state-
lised Syrian security forces to tackle what they deem as un-
led police as punishment for painting revolutionary slogans
founded acts of extreme violence against the government.
on their school wall in the southern city of Deera. Although
Although bomb blasts and shootings now seem to be a daily
many press reports point to this as the origin of the conflict,
occurrence on the streets of main cities like Homs, massacres,
this event should be viewed more as the trigger to a crisis that
like the May 2012 killing of 108 people, which included the
has deeper roots in the very nature of Assad’s regime.
deaths of 49 children, still have the ability to shock and high-
As an American governmental report argues, the current crisis has roots in Hafiz al Assad’s rise to power in 1970. Since then, the Syrian people have been living in fear and repression with an elitist top-down decision-making government, a strong police presence and a complete denial of many fundamental human and civil rights. Although the regime has attempted to gain popular support through economic initiatives such as Hafez’s Euphrates Basin Development Project (EBDP), which promised to bring electricity and irrigation to rural and urban centres, as well as Hafez and Bashar’s emphasis on cultivating lucrative crops such as cotton and wheat, the failure of these projects to meet the promises made
light the bloodshed occurring. It is this extreme violence that has led to a further crisis with long-term implications for the Syrian nation: the displacement of hundreds of thousands, possibly even millions, of refugees into bordering countries such as Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon and Turkey. The population drain and destruction of homes and entire cities will make rebuilding Syria a long and treacherous task. One only needs to look to neighbouring countries that have undergone civil war and revolution to understand that Syria will need significant amounts aid to rebuild from a crisis that still has no end in sight.
by the regime severely undermined their popularity. Jessica
It is now widely believed that the end to the bloodshed will
Barnes’ agricultural study of Syria further elaborates on the
only be possible through international intervention. The bru-
failure of such initiatives, by adding that the excessive use of
tality of Assad’s regime, and the increasing civilian death toll
31
Winter 2013 | Dialogue
have been widely reported in the western media, which have long demanded an immediate intervention by international powers. President Obama called for Assad’s resignation in August 2011, lobbying the United Nations Security Council to intercede and end the violence. However, the resolution failed to pass after being vetoed by Russia and China. In April 2012, the peace plan that had been negotiated by UN envoy Kofi Annan, which saw observers being deployed to monitor a ceasefire, also failed with the escalation of violence and Kofi Anan’s subsequent resignation. Anan’s successor, Lakhdar Brahimi, now handles the task of drawing agreement from major powers, a task that is made even more difficult with Assad’s iron grip strengthening with the weakening of Syria’s divided opposition. One decision the major powers continue to agree upon, however, is a rejection of military intervention. A growing number of commentators argue that intervention is justifiable now, more than ever, in the wake of escalating humanitarian crises, as well as with the benefit of possibly severing Syria’s close ties with Iran. Nevertheless, the “ghosts” of the Iraq war cause western hesitation, as intervention could trigger destabilization that could escalate into a wider regional crisis and a neverending cycle of intervention. Although, even if major powers were to be given a mandate to proceed, the problem remains that Russia and China refuse to support military intervention, and that Syria currently lacks a cohesive and credible political body that could effectively govern in the wake of Assad’s downfall. Many hope that 2013 will see the end to the Syrian crisis with the removal of Assad, and with it the slaughter of countless civilians. But questions remain of who and how a resolution should be created. The recent behaviour of major powers indicate that they would prefer an internal solution be found, but if this fails it will leave the major international powers’ hands as bloody as Assad’s. GEORGINA SINGER is a second year International Studies student at King’s College London
Dialogue | Winter 2013
32
The results of this year’s election do not fix the chal-
lies by the candidates were not distributed equally
lenges that Obama faced in his first term. Barack Obama
throughout the country. Swing-states such as Florida
is still the president, Republicans are still the majority in
and Ohio received the most campaign funding,
the House of Representatives and Democrats are still the
because they traditionally have an even distribution of
majority in the Senate. In his second-term Obama and
Democratic and Republican votes. According to
the executive branch will still have to win over a Repub-
CNN, Obama and Romney spent the most on political
lican-controlled House to pass legislation, developing
advertisements in the states of Florida, Ohio, District
economies will continue to challenge the American glo-
of Columbia, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. All
bal hegemony and the economy remains the most im-
of them besides the District of Columbia are conside-
portant issue to most Americans. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, the price of this year’s election is more than six billion dollars. It is the most expensive in American history, and $700 million more than the 2008 election. The cost reveals one of the greatest weaknesses of democracy; it is expensive. The result of all the spending is a govern-
“
red swing-states.
… However, the greatest flaw of the Electoral College system is that it does not represent the popular vote”.
ment that has hardly changed. Ironically government spending was one of the most contentious topics in this
However, the greatest flaw of the Electoral College
year’s election.
system is that it does not represent the popular vote. In this year’s election Obama won 332 Electoral Col-
Due to the Electoral College system that the United Sta-
lege votes compared to Romney’s 206, a result almost
tes uses to elect their president, campaign funds and rall-
as assuring as Obama’s victory in 2008. What this result fails to demonstrate is the evenness of the popular vote. Obama won 50.4 percent of the popular vote compared to Romney’s 48 percent. The results of the popular vote better demonstrate the competitiveness between Republicans and Democrats compared to the one-sided results of the Electoral College. The Electoral College system has a history of undermining the role of the popular vote. In the 2000 election Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore narrowly won the popular vote against his opponent
33
Winter 2013 | Dialogue
Republican George W. Bush. However, since Bush ex-
paigning to swing voters in their favor, which does not
ceeded the threshold of 270 by winning 271 Electoral
encourage trust between the two parties. Distrust could
College votes he was declared the victor of the election,
stall the process of breaking the stalemate and passing
and thus secured his role as the president. If the election
a fiscal reform.
were not decided through the Electoral College system candidates would focus their campaigns throughout a greater proportion of the nation instead of towards key swing-states.
Not only is Congress polarized after the election, but the much of the public is as well. According to the Huffington Post every state in the union has filed a request to secede from the union after Obama’s victory announcement. The petitions are being filed through
This year’s election will not empower Obama’s influence on passing legislation; it may even reduce his influence. One of the most pressing actions his cabinet must initiate early in the second-term is to negotiate a fiscal overhaul. If an agreement is not made this year, the United States faces the risk of falling off the “fiscal cliff.” This would lead to a combination of significant spending cuts and tax increases. According to Bloomberg, this combination could put the United States back
the White House’s “We The People” online petition tool. As of December 3rd the Texas petition has gathered more than 118,430 signatures, which is more than enough to be considered by the White House. Republican Texas Governor Rick Perry is just one the many high-ranking officials who have declined their support for the petition. Even though it is extremely unlikely that states will succeed, it does demonstrate that many citizens distrust the government.
in a recession, and shoot the unemployment rate back to more than 9 percent from its current 7.9 percent.
No country spends more on their head of state elections than the United States, yet the result of this year’s
Throughout the election Romney and the Republicans attacked Obama’s proposed tax plan, which includes increasing the income tax on high-income households and lowering the corporate tax while making it more difficult for multinationals to avoid paying taxes on their foreign income. Democrats believe this strategy
election are an identical government which will face the same challenges encountered in Obama’s first
term.
NICK SWYTER is a second year student at the University of Miami, U.S.A.
will reduce the deficit, Republicans believe that the plan would decrease spending, thus putting the country back in a recession. Obama’s obstacle to reaching a deal for fiscal reform is the current stalemate in Congress. Republicans control 241 seats in the House of Representatives, compared to the 192 Democratic seats, leaving Republicans with a comfortable majority. To avoid falling off the fiscal cliff Congress must consider the urgency of getting a deal done to break its current stalemate. The Obama and Romney camps both used persistent negative cam-
Dialogue | Winter 2013
34
Much has been said about Brazil’s rise in the global
Brazil is still ranked amongst the top 15 countries
arena along with the other BRIC countries (Russia,
with the worst income distribution. Official data from
India and China). However, can Brazil actually be-
IBGE (Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statis-
come a global power? Does Brazil have what it takes
tics) shows that the richest 10 per cent of Brazilian
to be a recognised global force? This article will fo-
families earn 50 per cent of the aggregate family in-
cus on some aspects of Brazil’s political, social and
come, while the poorest 50 per cent only earn 10 per
“
economic structures to argue that the country’s rise is
hugely overestimated and until some issues are seri-
ously addressed, its full potential will not be realised.
When one thinks about Brazil, many images come to
mind: - the beaches, the Amazon and the carnivals. The country’s social problems have become well
cent.
..corruption seems to be so intrinsically entwined with the political system that unless there is a political reform, it will continue dragging Brazil down.”
known abroad more recently though, perhaps due to a
Violence as a by-product of inequality and poverty is
number of films highlighting the issue of violence and
another issue to tackle. Although the favelas in Rio
poverty, racism and inequality, or simply by the fact
have been partly pacified, violence is a problem in the
that with Brazil’s economic rise, it was bound to be
whole country and recent deadly confrontations be-
examined more closely by international actors. It is
tween the police and criminals in Sao Paulo, the
social inequality, however, that has long dragged the
country’s largest city, which has left 140 dead, shows
country down in international comparisons and statis-
that Brazil still has a lot to change, not least because
tics. Although some improvements have been made
Sao Paulo’s rate of violence had actually been declin-
(the Gini coefficient, which measures levels of ine-
ing for the past decade.
quality, went from 0.602 in 1997 to 0.53 in 2010),
35
Winter 2013 | Dialogue
Optimists would argue that as long as the economy
South Africa, India and Russia, which are some of its
is growing, it is only a matter of time and invest-
main competitors for a global power status – partly due
ment until social issues are resolved. However, the
to its poor educational system. The massive apprecia-
economic stability and growth seen in the past dec-
tion of its currency and the increased competition from
ade cannot be guaranteed to continue. Brazil’s rate
China, along with the burdensome tax and pension sys-
of investment remains low compared to some
tems pose further challenges to the idea of continuous
Asian economies, which invest an average of 15 to
growth in the next decades. Political corruption, which
30 per cent of GDP, compared to Brazil’s 18 to 20
has long been an issue in the country, has a negative
per cent. According to Werner Baer, the lack of
impact in the economy as well and although some high
investment, especially in infrastructure, is and will
profile cases have been judged (as the Mensalao case,
continue being a barrier for further growth.
for instance), corruption seems to be so intrinsically entwined with the political system that unless there is a
Furthermore competitiveness remains low, as Bra-
political reform, it will continue dragging Brazil down.
zil ranks 64th out of 134 countries – behind China, The last aspect to look at is military capacity. Although there is nothing to say that a country without military power cannot become a global power, this lack of military authority can be a weakness in international security issues. Amongst the BRIC countries, Brazil is the one with the lowest ability to project military power beyond its region. Although this does not necessarily represent an issue in the country’s defence since South America remains largely peaceful, it does pose a problem to its international intervention capacity (which is an important aspect if Brazil wants a seat in the UN Security Council). As a legacy of the transition from a military regime to a democracy and the relative peace
Dialogue | Winter 2013
36
of its region, the country neglected military im-
lence and social inequality remain too important
provements for years, to the point where in 2008
and not enough has been done to solve them.
its military capacity reached its lowest level. Most
Moreover, although economic power is important,
of its equipment is old and not fully operational
it cannot be sustained in the long term unless some
and the morale of its officers remains low due to
deep reforms are made. Lastly, military power, or
the low salaries and prestige. Although spending
the lack of thereof, poses a final problem to
has increased from 1.5% of GDP to 2.7%, there is
Brazil’s ambitions of a global power status.
still much to do.
MARIA PIA TISSOT is a MA Student at the King’s College London Brazil Institute
In conclusion, although there are many aspects of modern Brazil that seem to indicate a potential for global status, some domestic problems like vio-
Dialogue | Winter 2013
37
“Who can imagine, today, solving the problems of the world without Brazil?” Brazil’s transformation into a global player has left the world fascinated by the Brazilian model’s key political and economic components that have founded its incredible success...
B
etter:
with a GDP of US$2,518 billion in
2011, Brazil became the world’s sixth-largest
economy overtaking the UK. 69% of Brazilians say their country is moving in the right direction and 71% that Brazil’s current economic situation is “very good”.
BBB:
R
ousseff,
Dilma:
Forbes
designated
Brazil’s current President as third most powerful woman worldwide.
Reserves:
in the last decade, Brazil’s international
reserves increased tenfold.
while the credit grade of several European
countries dropped, Brazil’s improved from BBB- to BBB in November 2011.
Barrel:
Mao Zedong said: “power comes out of the
barrel of a gun”; today, power comes out of a barrel of oil. President Lula stated: oil is Brazil’s “passport for the future” and as Petrobras’ CEO states: “Brazil’s oil indus-
Rio de Janeiro:
hosting two worldwide sports
events (the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics) will put Brazil in the spotlight and demonstrate its international credibility.
A
griculture:
Brazil is the world’s third-
largest agricultural exporter (40% of its produc-
try is doing very well”. Petrobras ranked tenth worldwide
tion is exported) and fifth-largest producer. Brazil ranks
and fourth in oil and gas production.
first or second globally for the production and export of many foodstuffs (e.g. half of world sugar trade and 30%
Bolsa Familía:
poverty dropped from 37.5% to
of world coffee trade).
24.9% over 2001-2009; 23.4 million people were lifted out of poverty. The growing consumption of the emerging middle class (53.9% of the population) boosts Brazil’s economy: e.g. last August, it was the thirdlargest market for car sales worldwide.
Batista, Eike:
is the seventh richest man world-
wide. Brazil’s number of millionaires grew most worldwide; the sum of their fortunes surpasses the EU countries international reserves.
Dialogue | Winter 2013
38
Amazon rainforest:
Brazil actively partici-
pates in environmental debates and hosted the 2012
ore, has become Brazil’s first commercial partner and has stimulated Brazil’s economy.
Rio+20 conference .
Security Council:
African or Arab countries: Brazil showed
international recognition is a seat on the United Nations
interest in diversifying its commercial and political partners. If Africa was a single commercial partner for Brazil, it would rank fourth. Brazil has the fifth largest number of embassies in Africa. Compared to his BRIC counterparts, President Lula is the BRIC leader who has travelled to Africa the most. He was the first Brazilian Head of State to officially visit the Middle East, and it was Brazil who hosted the first South American-Arab countries Summit.
Aid:
aid provided by BRICS to poor nations over
2005-2010 grew ten times faster than that provided by the G7. Brazil’s assistance spending reached US$1.2 billion in 2010, showing its ambition to project greater influence in developing nations. Moreover Brazil implements local variations of successful national initiatives, like 23 Bolsa Familia inspired projects.
S
pringboard:
Brazil encourages regional
integration initiatives: Dilma Rousseff suggested
South American states could be stronger together. This
Brazil’s strongest claim to
Security Council, where Brazil sat ten times as a nonpermanent member from 1946 to 2011. Brazil has also been leading the Stabilisation Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) since 2004.
Soft power:
Brazil rejects using force to solve
conflicts and strongly promotes negotiation, relying on its tradition of diplomacy and “soft power” for global influence.
I
MF:
1)
Brazil
advocates
for
the
multi-
polarisation and “democratisation” of the world
order, with greater participation of emerging powers in world affairs and international organisations. 2) Having long been a recipient of international financial aid, Brazil now contributes to the IMF rescue fund for the EU.
Investments:
Brazil was the No.5 destination of
FDI in 2011, the largest target in Latin America, and the No. 1 destination for Chinese investments in 2010. São Paulo ranked fourth among the top ten cities worldwide that received most foreign investments.
illustrates Brazil’s desire to strengthen regional cooperation and use South America as a platform for economic development and a sphere of political influence, allowing Brazil to play a greater international role. For 95% of Brazilian diplomats, Argentina, which Dilma Rousseff visited on her first Presidential trip, is a country of vital interest to Brazil. 78% of Brazilian diplomats consider Mercosur, “the engine of South America”, to be beneficial to Brazil.
Immigration:
Brazil has become an attractive
destination in the hemisphere, receiving twice as many international migrants in 2010 as in 2000.
Itaipu:
Brazil invests in renewable energies. In
2011, Brazil was the No. 10 investor in clean energy and recorded the third-largest installed capacity growth. Hydropower represents 86.3% of Brazil’s power gener-
Soy: Brazil significantly increased its participation in
ation. Itaipu is the second largest dam worldwide, after
worldwide trade. China, which imports soy and iron
China’s Three Gorges, and Brazil’s Belo Monte dam will rank third.
Dialogue | Winter 2013
39
Iran: Lula’s government strongly supported Iran’s right to a civilian nuclear program. Brazil, Iran and Turkey signed an agreement in 2010, proposing an alternative to UN sanctions.
L
andmass:
the national anthem depicts
Brazil as a giant: its landmass (three times
Argentina’s) and population (half of South Americans) place it as fifth worldwide.
Leader:
Representing 60% of South America’s
GDP, Brazil’s GDP is double Mexico’s and six times Argentina’s; who respectively stand as the 14th and 27th economies worldwide. Latin Americans, particularly in Mercosur, consider Brazil the “friendliest” country of the region and that with “most leadership”, ahead of the US and Venezuela.
Lula: Brazil’s former President, the most successful of his time according to Time Magazine, became the emblematic figure of a transformed Brazil.
85%
of Brazilian diplomats think Bra-
zil has a more significant international role than ten years ago and 91% believe it should have a stronger international presence in the future. Antonio Patriota, current Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs, said: “to talk about the BRICS is to talk in superlatives”; to talk about Brazil is to discuss the giant whose future mirrors its greatness.
MATHILDE CHATIN is a PhD Candidate at King’s College London Brazil Institute
Dialogue | Winter 2013
40
President’s message Over the past term the KCL Politics Society has continued moving ever forward with an increasing ambition to innovatively inform and engage our members in political affairs. While the first half of autumn highlighted a very distinctive period in the history of our society, the remaining was a testimony of our commitment to our principles and objectives.
We kicked off the year with an active presence in the KCLSU Freshers’ Fair; we found it incredibly motivating to meet so many students from a wide variety of backgrounds and disciplines who were keen to get involved. The increasing interest in the KCL Politics Society was then reflected by the presence of over 200 people in a packed lecture theatre for our opening event.
It was also during this time that we announced an exclusive pre-premier of the critically acclaimed film ‘Grassroots’; a political comedy on U.S. politics, at London’s Haymarket Theatre. The screening was then followed by a discussion with the film’s director and political experts. We are proud to say that this event was the first of its kind by a student-led political society in London. It was an exciting way to bring politics out of its abstract context and engage our members with political affairs in an entertaining manner. We have since continued our mission with a
41 00
commitment to our original objectives and organized a series of conferences and workshops that have covered a diverse range of topics with experts ranging from academics and journalists to senior diplomats and attracted a significant group of students.
Consequently, it is fair to say that the past autumn has been a great success for the Society. Not only have we met all our objectives, but we did so with your active support for every one of our projects. Therefore it should come as no surprise that the Society’s membership has already increased six fold. In addition to this, our internationally acclaimed journal, Dialogue, has proven to be very successful with readership spanning 13 different countries and 5 continents. It is with your support that we are confident of the Society’s future, and we look forward to your continued engagement. Thank you!
Ramtin Hajimonshi KCL Politics Society President
Winter 2013 | Dialogue Winter 2012 | Dia-
The European External Service: The EU’s “telephone number” in the making? http://euobserver.com/opinion/31488 http://ecfr.eu/blog/entry/divided_and_irrelevant http://eeas.europa.eu/background/docs/organisation_en.pdf https://www.ideals.uiuc.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/27707/EndofNationalEuropeanArmies.pdf?sequence=2 , p. 15-20, Jolyon Howorth, The European Union in (In-)Action: Brussels and the Arab Spring http://dseu.lboro.ac.uk/Documents/Policy_Papers/DSEU_Policy_Paper08.pdf Frauke Austermann, Towards Embassies for Europe? INSIDE: A Modern Greek Tragedy D. Oakley, K. Hope, “Greece Downgraded over High Debt”, found in Financial Times, December 8, 2009. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2763a1d6-e3fc-11de-b2a9-00144feab49a.html#axzz2D8tP1jeJ N. Weeks, “Greece Steps Up Tax Evasion Crackdown with Asset Freezes”, found in Bloomberg News, September 6, 2012. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-06/greece-steps-up-tax-evasion-crackdown-with-asset-freezes.html “Greece’s Debt Burden: How to end the agony”, found in the Economist, 10th November 2012. http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21565954-greece-will-remain-disaster-until-it-gets-treatment-givenheavily-indebted-poor I. Siakantaris, “Why aren’t prices falling? (in Greek: ‘Γιατί δεν πέφτουν οι τιμές;’)”, found in LIFO Magazine, November 21, 2012. OECD, “OECD Harmonized Unemployment Rates. News Release: September 2012”, November 13, 2012, Paris. http://www.oecd.org/std/labourstatistics/HUR_NR11e12.pdf E. Kirschbaum, “Suicides have Greeks on Edge before Elections”, found in Reuters, April 29, 2012. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/28/us-greece-election-suicide-idUSBRE83R08N20120428 M. Lowen, “Meeting the ‘new homeless’ on Greece’s freezing streets”, found in BBC World News, February 4, 2012. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16878756 Article in the official University of Cambridge website. http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/a-greek-tragedy-in-health/ Poll by Public Issue, “Political Barometer 114 (in Greek: ‘Πολιτικό Βαρόμετρο 114’)”, November 12, 2012. Human Rights Watch Report, “Hate on the Streets. Xenophobic Violence in Greece”, July 10, 2012. http://www.hrw.org/reports/2012/07/10/hate-streets-0
Italy’s Political Elites: Out with the old, in with the old "Biografia Del Presidente Mario Monti." Governo Italiano. N.p., n.d. Web. 16 Nov. 2012. <http://www.governo.it/Presidente/Biografia/biografia_it.html> Rowley, Emma. "Italy's Austerity May Have Saved the Euro, Says Mario Monti."Telegraph. N.p., 17 Nov. 2012. Web. 18 Nov. 2012. <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9685373/Italys-austerity-may-have-saved-the-euro-saysMario-Monti.html> Dinmore, Guy. "Time Super Mario Showed the Full Monti." Financial Times. N.p., 29 June 2012. Web. 16 Nov. 2012. <http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1f118ffc-c07c-11e1-982d-00144feabdc0.html>. Frye, Andrew. "Italians Dodge Property Tax in Test for Monti’s Austerity." Bloomberg. N.p., 21 June 2012. Web. 16 Nov. 2012. <http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-20/italians-openly-dodge-property-tax-intest-for-monti-s-austerity.html>. "Profile: Silvio Berlusconi, Ex-Italian Prime Minister." BBC News. BBC, 26 Oct. 2012. Web. 16 Nov. 2012. <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11981754>. Westcott, Kathryn. "At Last - an Explanation for 'bunga Bunga'" BBC News. BBC, 02 May 2011. Web. 16 Nov. 2012. <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12325796>. http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STAT-09-23_en.htm?locale=en Lenzo, Giuseppe. "Beppe Grillo, Biggest Shake-up in Today's Italy | OpenDemocracy."Open Democracy. N.p., 4 July 2011. Web. 16 Nov. 2012. <http://www.opendemocracy.net/giuseppe-lenzo/beppe-grillo-biggestshake-up-in-today%E2%80%99s-italy>. Rabazzi, Valentina. "Politici Italiani Strapagati: Guadagnano 20.600 Euro Al Mese, Il Quadruplo Degli Spagnoli E Il Doppio Dei Tedeschi." Valdelsa.net. N.p., 16 Oct. 2009. Web. 17 Nov. 2012. <http:// www.valdelsa.net/det-cy48-it-EUR-33949-.htm>. Lenzo, Giuseppe. "Beppe Grillo, Biggest Shake-up in Today's Italy | OpenDemocracy."Open Democracy. N.p., 4 July 2011. Web. 16 Nov. 2012. <http://www.opendemocracy.net/giuseppe-lenzo/beppe-grillo-biggestshake-up-in-today%E2%80%99s-italy>. Grillo, Beppe. "Passaparola - Comunicato Politico Numero Cinquantatre." Web log post.MoVimento. N.p., 28 Oct. 2012. Web. 16 Nov. 2012. <http://www.beppegrillo.it/movimento/>. Subacchi, Paula. "Normalising Italy." European Daily. N.p., 19 Sept. 2012. Web. 18 Nov. 2012. <http:// europeandaily.com/europe/2012/09/19/normalising-italy>. Subacchi, Paula. "Normalising Italy." European Daily. N.p., 19 Sept. 2012. Web. 18 Nov. 2012. <http:// europeandaily.com/europe/2012/09/19/normalising-italy>. Babington, Deepa. "Italian Women Fight to Break Political Barriers." Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 10 Apr. 2008. Web. 18 Nov. 2012. <http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/04/10/us-italian-womenidUSMAR04186620080410>. Comment: Russia – Reform or Revert Russian Politics The Paradox of a Weak State, Marie Mendras, Hurst&Co 2012 Beyond the Putin System, Mikhail Kasyanov, Chatham House 2009 The Modernization of Russia: Possibilities and Limits, Alexander Voloshin, 2010 How to Market a Nation
E. Bernays, ‘The Marketing of National Policies: A Study of War Propaganda’, Journal of Marketing, vol. 6, no. 3, 1942, p. 236 G. Lakoff, Don’t Think of an Elephant! Know Your Values and Frame the Debate, Chelsea Green Publishing Company, Vermont, 2004, p. 3 Associated Press in Taipei, ‘China Passports Claim Ownership of South China Sea and Taiwan’, The Guardian, 23 November 2012, online, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/23/china-passports-ownershipsea-taiwan, 25 November 2012 Thank You for Smoking, dir. Jason Reitman, prod. David O. Sacks and Edward R. Pressman, 92 min., Fox Searchlight Pictures, 2006, DVD For an explanation of the Chinese concept of human rights, see Sonya Sceats and Shuan Breslin, ‘China and the International Human Rights System’, Chatham House, 2012, pp. 7-9 ‘Full Text of Hu Jintao’s Report at 18th Party Congress’, Xinhua News Agency, 17 November 2012, online, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/2012-11/17/c_131981259.htm, 25 November 2012; ‘Xi Jinping Urges to Develop Socialism with Chinese Characteristics’, Xinhua News Agency, 18 November 2012, online, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-11/18/c_123966991.htm, 25 November 2012 Time for an Indian Al Jazeera BBC News: “UK to End Financial Aid to India by 2015”, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20265583 Al Nawawy, M. and Iskander, A., Al Jazeera: The Story of the Network that is Rattling Governments and Redefining Modern Journalism, Westview Press, 2003 Amartya Sen, The Argumentative India, Picador, 2006 Kumar S., An Indian Personality of Television, Jump Cut, no. 43, July 2000 Khilnani, S. India as a Bridging Power, Foreign Policy Centre, London, 2005 Lost In The Fog of War: Deterring a Nuclear Iran Hobbs, Christopher. Moran, Matthew ‘Would a Nuclear Iran Really Trigger a New Arms Race in the Middle East’, Guardian, December 2012 <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2012/ dec/19/iran-nuclear-middle-east-arms-race> [Accessed 1 January 2013] Reuters ‘Netanyahu Defends Comparison of Iran, Nazi Holocaust’, Guardian, June 2010 <http://http:// www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/18/us-israel-iran-netanyahu-idUSBRE83H1EF20120418> [Accessed 1 December 2012] Pollack, Kenneth ‘Deterring a Nuclear Iran: The Devil in the Details’, Council on Foreign Relations, June 2010 <http://www.cfr.org/iran/deterring-nuclear-iran/p22292> [Accessed 1 December 2012] Syria: An End in Sight? BBC News. “The Syria Conflict: Online Reports”. (2012-2013). [Date accessed: 7/01/13]. Jeremy M. Sharp, and Christopher M. Blanchard. "Armed Conflict in Syria: US and International Response." (2012).
Jessica Barnes. “Managing the Waters of Bath Country: The Politics of Water Scarcity in Syria”. (2009). Geopolitics,14:3, p. 510 — 530. Abigail Fielding-Smith.“UN puts Syrian death toll at 60,000” in The Financial Times [online edition]. 2nd January 2013. [Date accessed: 3/01/13]. Mark N. Katz. “Intervention vs Non-Intervention in Syria : Assessing Costs and Benefits for the West” in eInternational Relations [online]. 4th September 2012. [Date accessed: 28/12/12]. U.S. Election Results: The Price of Democracy CNN. "America's Choice 2012 Presidential Elections: Candidates." CNN. Cable News Network, 6 Nov. 2012. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/candidates.html>. The Economist. "Much Ado about Nothing." The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, 10 Nov. 2012. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21565993-new-congress-looks-almost-exactlylast-much-ado-about-nothing>. The Economist. "The Remaking of the President." The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, 10 Nov. 2012. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21565995-niche-campaigning-negativity -and-nitty-gritty-organisation-put-barack-obama-back/print>. The Huffington Post. "Obama vs. Romney Electoral Map." The Huffington Post. N.p., 6 Nov. 2012. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map>. Hummel, John. "The Election and the Growing Economic Crisis." CNBC.com. NBCUniversal, 20 Nov. 2012. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.cnbc.com/id/49906631/ Hummel_The_Election_and_the_Growing_Economic_Crisis>. Linkins, Jason. "Residents In All 50 States File Petitions To Secede From United States." The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 14 Nov. 2012. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http:// www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/14/secession-50-states-_n_2131447.html>. Reddy, Sudeep. "'Fiscal Cliff' Debate Hits Airwaves." Wall Street Journal. News Corporation, 23 Nov. 2012. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://online.wsj.com/article/ SB10001424127887324712504578137371492840186.html>. Salant, Jonathan. "Election Costs to Exceed $6 Billion in 2012, Research Group Says." Bloomberg. N.p., 31 Oct. 2012. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-31/election-costs-to-exceed-6billion-in-2012-research-group-says.html>. Stone, Marci. "Texas Succession Request Gathers over 113,000 Signatures in Historic Move." Examiner.com. N.p., 17 Nov. 2012. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.examiner.com/article/texas-succession-request-gathersover-113-000-signatures-historic-move>. WJLA. "2012 Election: Economic Impact of the Election." WJLA 7. ABC, 7 Nov. 2012. Web. 26 Nov. 2012. <http://www.wjla.com/articles/2012/11/2012-election-economic-impact-of-the-election--81833.html>. Brazil: Challenging Times World Bank, ‘Brazil country Brief’, <http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ LACEXT/BRAZILEXTN/0,,menuPK:322351~pagePK:141132~piPK:141107~theSitePK:322341,00.html > [Accessed 18 November 2012]
World Bank, ‘Gini Index’ < http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI/> [Accessed 16 November 2012] B. Reiter (2009). ‘Inequality and School Reform in Bahia: Brazil’, International Review of Education 55,p. 347. John Lyons, ‘Death Toll Mounts in Brazil as Police Face Down Gangs’, Wall Street Journal, 11 November 2012 <http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324894104578112912555396072.html> [Accessed 19 November 2012] Werner Baer, The Brazilian Economy, Growth and Development, London, Lynne Rienner Publishers Inc, 2008, p.402. Paulo Sotero, ‘Brazil’s rising ambition in a shifting global balance of power’, Politics, vol.30, no.S1 (2010), p.72. Andrew Hurrell (2010) ‘Brazil and the New Global Order’, Current History, 109 (724), p. 6. Worth the Wait, ‘The Economist’, 29 September 2012 [Accessed 15 November 2012] < http:// www.economist.com/node/21563734> Joao Fabio Bertonha (2010) ‘Brazil: An Emerging Military Power? The Problem of the Use of Force in Brazilian International Relations in the 21st Century’, Revista Brasileira de Politica Internacional, 53(2), p.109. Brazil: an “inspiring success story” Anker & TNS (2012), “ITUC Global Poll”. ¨
Among the BRICS: equals Russia, above India (BB-), below China (AA-) and South Africa (BBB+). Graça Foster, CEO of Petrobras, ranked 20th in Forbes “World’s 100 Most Powerful Women” and third in Latin America (after Dilma Rousseff and Cristina Kirchner). Forbes (2012) “World’s Biggest Public Companies”. Behind China and the US, overtaking Japan. Jornal do Brasil (2012) “Brasil é 3° no ranking de vendas de carros; China é líder”.
The European External Service: The EU’s ”telephone number” in the making? www.globalpublicsquareblog.com/nov1/europé-municipalication-steps/ INSIDE: a modern greek tragedy? http://blogs.r.ftdata.co.uk/gavyndavies/files/2012/05/143777409.jpg Italy’s Political Elites: Out with the old, in with the old. http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de http://www.thefrontpage.it Russia—Reform of Revert http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/03/27/vtb-in-talks-to-buy-ingosstrakh-stake/#axzz2EH7hSTyt
A conservative perspective on an EU In/Out Referendum http://esharp2.tttp.eu/Media/Images/EU-UK-flags www.londoncf.org How to Market a Nation http://cummingsillustration.blogspot.co.uk/2010/10/xi-jinping-chinas-new-leader-in-waiting.html http://wellisphotography.photoshelter.com/image/I0000KSNlCK9RrGk http://www.etsy.com/listing/103254159/china-town-addict-vintage-chinese Time for an Indian Al Jazeera http://fractalenlightenment.com/711/culture/indian-temples-of-newspapers-rats-and-visa http://lotustravel.nl/India21dagen_2.html Changing Face, Changing Policies in China Reuters Lost in the Fog of War: Deterring a Nuclear Iran http://jewishworldnews.org/2012/03/15/op-ed-israel-has-a-legal-case-for-striking-iran/ http://csis.org/blog/creative-thinking-and-irans-nuclear-program The Egyptian Equation Unpublished, picture by Sunniva Rebecka Skjeggestad Syria: an end in sight? Associated Press U.S. Election Results: The Price of Democracy? http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y55/Raketmensch/donkey.jpg http://daybreakshow.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/920-nb-republican-elephant.jpg Brazil: Challenging Times www.fotopedia.com www.forbes.com www.nationalgeographic.com http://www.bestlifestyle.us/all/list-latest-21.html Brasil: an â&#x20AC;?inspiring success storyâ&#x20AC;? Sean Gallup/Getty Images