Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll July 2010 Date Published: 23rd July 2010
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Methodology
Objective of the Survey The objective of the survey was to assess voters’ views on issues regarding the draft constitution including: sources of information about it, the position of religious leaders, and possible violence. The results should contribute to a deeper understanding of the processes of public opinion formation and decision-making by ordinary Kenyans and inform responses to challenges in the post-referendum environment.
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Poll Methodology Dates of polling Sample Size Sampling methodology Universe
Data collection methodology Sampling error
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July 11th – July 17th 6005 respondents Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS Recently registered voters by IIEC
Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level +/-1.6 with a 95% confidence level
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Sample Distribution National Population distribution (over 18 years)
Province
Distribution of registered voters (IIEC Register)
Survey Sample distribution
Nairobi
10%
10%
10%
Central
14%
16%
16%
Coast
9%
8%
8%
Eastern
16%
16%
16%
North Eastern
3%
2%
2%
Nyanza
14%
14%
14%
Rift Valley
24%
24%
24%
Western
11%
11%
11%
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Familiarity with the proposed Draft
“Have you checked the Voters’ register to make sure your name is there?” By Total RTA, 1% No, I have not checked, 28%
Yes, checked and it was not there, and is still missing, 1%
Yes, checked and it was not there, but it is now, 3%
Yes, checked it is there, 67% Base: n=6005 (All Respondents)
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“Are you planning to go and vote?” By Total
Yes, 91%
No, 2%
Undecided, 7%
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010
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Motivation for voting: By Total
80%
60% 42% 40%
33%
30%
20% 10% 0% For better governance I want to exercise my The draft constitution is rights better
To shoot the draft constituion down
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents) Š Synovate 2010
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Motivation for voting: By ‘Yes’ voters
100%
80%
60%
52% 38%
40%
27% 20%
0% For better governance
The draft constitution is better
I want to exercise my rights
Base: ‘YES’ Voters (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010
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Motivation for voting: By ‘No’ voters
100%
80%
60% 41% 40%
37%
17%
20%
0% I want to exercise my rights
To shoot the draft constituion down
For better governance
Base: ‘NO’ Voters’(All Respondents) © Synovate 2010
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“How much do you know about the draft constitution?” By Total May =13%
Nothing, 4%
Don't Know, 1% May =10%
Alot, 23%
A little/something, 71% May =76%
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010
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“How much do you know about the draft constitution?” By Gender & Setting A lot
A little/Something
Nothing
Don't Know
100% 80%
75%
72%
68%
70%
60% 40% 20%
30%
25%
22%
16% 7%
2%
2% 1%
0% Female
Male Gender
5%
4% 1%
1%
Rural
Urban Setting
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010
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“How much do you know about the draft constitution?” By Province
A lot
A little/Something
Nothing
Don't Know
100% 80%
72%
72%
71%
70%
75%
73%
63%
60%
60%
36%
40% 25%
26%
22%
20% 2%1%
0%
Nairobi
4%1% Central
24% 10% 1%
Coast
26%
24% 5% 1%
Eastern
19% 5%2%
Nyanza
4%2% Rift Valley
2% Western
3%1% North Eastern
Province Base: n=6005 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010
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“From which sources have you learnt something about the proposed constitution?”
Radio
80%
Television
50%
Friends/relatives
44%
Personally read draft
39%
Print media
32%
Religious leaders
18%
Politicians
18%
Colleagues at work
5%
Internet
4%
Workshops
3%
Professional Associations
2%
Government representatives
1% 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Base: n=5979 (Those who know at least something about the constitution) © Synovate 2010
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Usefulness of main sources of information: By much/only some information. A lot(23%)
A little/Something (71%)
100% 80% 56% 60%
65%
79%
81%
84%
87%
88%
21%
19%
16%
13%
12%
40% 20%
44%
35%
0%
Base: By those with two or more sources of information. Š Synovate 2010
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“Would you say the information you obtained was balanced to both sides or biased?” (Base: Those who attended a workshop/forum) Biased or in favour of one side or the other, 21%
Not sure, 2%
No opinion, 2%
Balanced to both sides, 'yes and no', 75%
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Views on the draft
“When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?”
Will not vote, 3% Undecided, 17%
No to reject, 22%
Yes to approve, 58%
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010
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“When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?”
Base: those who have made up their minds © Synovate 2010
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Reasons why you would vote against the proposed constitution The abortion clause
62%
The land clause
47%
Inclusion of the Kadhi courts
40%
For further amendments to be made
24%
Little or no information on the draft
11%
Religious leaders are against the draft
10%
Party politics in the yes camp
3%
Introduction of counties
2% 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Base: n=1321 (those will vote NO) Š Synovate 2010
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“Do you/your family have anxieties about the security of your land if the draft constitution is ratified?” By Total and Province (Base = those who own land)
% Saying Yes 80% 60% 41%
40% 20%
20%
18%
18%
16%
15%
11%
10%
9%
Coast
Nyanza
0% Total
Rift Valley Eastern
North Eastern
Nairobi Western Central
Province
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Support for the draft by the level of familiarity
100%
% Indicating will vote ‘yes to approve’
80% 67% 57%
60%
37%
40%
20%
0% Much of it
Just a little/Some of it
Nothing
Base: those indicated will vote Yes to approve © Synovate 2010
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Support for the draft by support for political personalities and political parties
“If Presidential elections were held today, who would you vote for if that person was a presidential candidate?”
36%
12%
Raila Odinga
11%
Kalonzo William Musyoka Ruto
8%
Mwai Kibaki
8%
Uhuru Kenyatta
5%
1%
1%
Martha Eugene Musalia Karua Wamalwa Mudavadi Base: n=6005 (All Respondents)
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Support for the draft by political personalities followers. Supporters of
Yes to approve
No to reject
Undecided
May
July
May
July
May
July
Raila Odinga
74%
82%
8%
7%
17%
11%
Mwai Kibaki
57%
61%
13%
14%
30%
25%
Martha Karua
53%
54%
17%
21%
31%
25%
Uhuru Kenyatta
50%
59%
25%
20%
25%
20%
Kalonzo Musyoka
44%
49%
26%
29%
31%
21%
William Ruto
10%
12%
68%
73%
22%
14%
Base: Supporters of each personality
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“Which political party do you feel closest to?”
41%
22%
21% 8%
ODM
PNU
ODM Kenya
2%
2%
1%
2%
Narc
Narc Kenya
KANU
Others
None
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010
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Support for the draft by political parties followers.
Yes to approve
No to reject
Undecided
Will not vote
100% 80%
68%
63%
60%
52%
51%
40% 20%
20% 10% 2%
18%16%
27% 18%
4%
3%
49%
30% 15%
28% 20%
3%
3%
ODM Kenya
Narc Kenya
0% ODM
PNU
Narc
Base: Supporters of each Party Š Synovate 2010
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Support for the draft by Provinces.
Yes to approve
No to reject
Undecided
Will not vote
83% 73% 66%
62%
61%
61% 49% 40%38% 28%
13%13%
7% 9% 1% Nyanza
18% 13% 3%
1% North Eastern
Western
20% 16% 3% Central
17%18%
20% 16%
4% Nairobi
3% Coast
18% 4% Eastern
16% 5%
Rift Valley
Base: Supporters of each Party Š Synovate 2010
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Religious leaders and the draft
“Should religious leaders take sides, either “YES” or “No” on the constitutional referendum?”
Not sure, 8%
RTA, 1% Yes, 49%
No, 42%
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010
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“Have your religious leaders taken sides on the Draft Constitution, whether ‘Yes’ or ‘No’?” RTA, 2% Not sure, 16%
Yes, 57% No, 25%
Base: n=6005 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010
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“Which side is your LOCAL religious leadership supporting?”
Neither side, says we should decide for ourselves, 7%
Has not said/ DK, 4%
RTA, 1%
The yes side, 33%
The no side, 55%
Base: n=3434 (Those who know that their religious leaders have taken a position) © Synovate 2010
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Voters’ intentions in relation to their local religious leaders’ position
Local religious leaders is Yes
Local religious leaders is No 88%
48% 41%
5% Yes voters
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Present Occurrence and Future Concerns of Violence
“How likely do you think there will be violence in your locality related to the campaigns for an against the draft constitution?” By Total, Province 80%
% Saying Very Likely 60%
40%
20% 3%
4%
2%
2%
3%
Total
Nairobi
Central
Coast
Eastern
4%
4%
5%
0% Nyanza Rift Valley Western
1% North Eastern
Province Base: n=6005 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010
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Some current affairs issues
“Do you support the proposed increase in salaries and benefits for MPs?” By Total DK/RTA Yes 4%
No 94%
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“Do you support the price control bill passed by MPs?” By Total Don't know, 3%
Refused to answer, 1%
No, 25%
Yes, 71%
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Useful Illustrations
Geographical distribution of ‘Yes’ and ‘No”
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Regional profile of ‘Yes’ and ‘No’
Share of the ‘YES’ support by province © Synovate 2010
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Share of the ‘NO’ support by province Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010
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Assumptions The results of this opinion poll assume: 1. That there will be equal voter turnout from both the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ side 2.
That there will be no significant change in political alliances before the referendum
3.
That once the undecided group finally make up their minds, their support will distribute equally between the ‘NO’ and ‘YES’ side.
4.
That the electoral process will be accurately reflect the voting behaviour
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Some Key observations •
There is notable high level of confidence in this democratic process as demonstrated by the high levels of desire to turnout and vote.
•
Further, voters are motivated to turn out and vote by the high desire for better governance and need to excise ones democratic right by way of voting for/against that what they feel best for themselves and the country
•
We also report significantly high levels of voters card validation- which is a clear response to messages by the IIEC.
•
The diminishing levels of indecisiveness and increase levels of supporters following their respective political leaders position is a clear demonstration of the impact of the ongoing campaigns.
•
Further, the ongoing civic education and campaigns have increased levels of familiarity with proposed constitution
•
There are notable levels of cohesion and tolerance as demonstrated by the very low levels of tensions or predictions of violence.
•
The voters are also fairly tolerant of the religious leaders taking positions which do not necessarily match their own
•
finally, the yes side has a clear majority, in fact, based on those who have made up their mind nearly three quarters would vote in favour of the proposed draft. © Synovate 2010
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Poll Methodology The target population for this survey was all Kenyans who have recently registered with the IIEC as voters. A sample size of 6005 respondents was drawn and distributed across the country based on the voters register by regions as per the IIEC. The sample was distributed across 71 districts. The maximum margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 1.6 % margin at 95% confidence level. A randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensured that districts with a higher voter population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation. The interviews were done face to face at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control. These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions . The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing
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For further details Please contact: George Waititu Tel: + 254 20 4450 196 Mobile: +254 722206980 George.waititu@synovate .com
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