head says Dublin

the Indian sign over Brian Fenton on Sunday? The immediate cover is limited to Barry Dan O’Sullivan. Or would Kerry rearrange the format using their top player and shifting around other players? The team has not been announced as this column is put to bed, but I expect the same starting 15 as went in against Derry. He may start O’Brien, or do you keep him on standby. Will he be first in? He was hugely influential in last year’s final and again versus Derry, more as a defensive wing forward using his trademark block down to plug the holes in the Kerry defence.

Luck is very important in any venture and I believe this is a very lucky team. They got some crucial refereeing decisions last year at crucial times. When Galway were right in the mix, Kerry got a very soft free, immediately punished with a great David Clifford point from the Cusack/Hill 16 area of the pitch.

In the recent semi-final another referee on another day would have deemed Shane Ryan’s use of his posterior to thunder through deserving of a card.

Dublin have six scoring forwards; Kerry don’t. In the semi-final, Seánie O’Shea and David Clifford did all the scoring with Paudie Clifford chipping in with a single point. None of the other starting three scored. I reiterate what I have written about so often in this column: you won’t win an All-Ireland with so many non-scorers.

I am not taking from the great 110% effort by the non-scorers who may have to sacrifice their own individual stats to fit into the Kerry plan.

Paudie hasn’t delivered the quality performance this year that gave him an All-Star in 2022. However, I have no fears about his ability to lift his game on Sunday. He has what it takes, but Dublin will have a plan to cut off his supply at source, stopping his darting runs prematurely before he gets up steam to run at the Dublin defence.

I believe that Kerry will go hard offensively at Dublin in the opening quarter, imposing their superiority, while balancing that with adequate defensive cover. You won’t see Tadhg Morley going on an upfield offensive sally, especially early on. He needs to mark his man and at the same time cover off the central spine so that no Dub careers through the middle unhindered.

Dublin have the pacy players to come off the shoulder, maximising turnovers. They are at their deadliest then and the goals will come especially with Con O’Callaghan, Paul Mannion and, sharpest of all, Cormac Costello ready to pounce for a goal. Then a tight contest would end and you know the consequences of allowing the Dubs to dictate.

Motivation is very important for a winning side. Kerry have plenty of motivation. So, too, do the Dubs, with several of them bidding for their ninth All-Ireland medal. Even the heroes of Mick O’Dwyer’s Golden Years could only manage eight.

One other big factor in determining the result is how the players and management deal with the unexpected variables. There are several such as the referee's decisions, often made without the full facts because the umpires and linesmen ‘saw nothing and heard nothing’.

Is it a penalty, a 13-metre free or a free out? Was that tackle deliberate or accidental? Is the player on the ground genuinely hurt or should he really have been better suited to the Broadway stage? Is the sinner more sinned against than the ref realises?

Much has been made of the appointment of David Gough, a Meath teacher living and working in Dublin. Bias? I don’t think so. He is the top referee in the country, but even he has too much to do with 82,000 pairs of eyes and cameras go leor to dispute his decisions.

As I said so often, the referee should have nothing whatsoever to do with time issues. Send a player to the bin for 10 minutes. How accurate is his count of 10? How does he deal with the delaying tactics of the 14-man team? How accurate is his judgement of time added on, with one team having those extra seconds for one last effort to equalise? Refereeing is an imprecise science for a human with all his frailties. Bring in the clock. I saw and heard the clock/hooter in operation in Gaelic Park, New York 50 years ago. It worked. No disputes. It works for the LGFA and basketball.

1955

68 years ago the no-hopers of the culchie Kerry team, then traditional catch and kick practitioners, were supposed to be humiliated by the sophisticated Dublin machine of Freaney, the Foleys and Heffo. ‘Don’t bother coming up’ was the advice of Kerry people living in Dublin.

The Ghost Train rumbled though the might and two Killarney men defied the odds. It was termed the Tadhgie Lyne All-Ireland. He scored six of their 12 points against Dublin’s 1-6. A young, nifty, intelligent corner forward also shone until he got injured. He went on to win four more All-Irelands as a top class goalkeeper. Johnny Culloty arrived on the big stage in 1955 and played a lead role in so many Kerry dramas for the next 15 years.

Tickets

Have you a spare ticket for the match?

That’s the regular chat this week. Try all sources and get sorted before arriving you arrive at the front of the Gresham Hotel. Anyone buying or selling a ticket? That’s the chant of the chancers. Ignore them with their inflated prices and exorbitant charges.

Call it. Bookies say Kerry are 10/11. The heart says Kerry, the head says Dublin -marginally - because they want revenge. They also ant to form the Niners Club and they have so many top players listed in the subs.

Kerry will give it everything, but the Dubs are far more potent on the bench.