Kim Connor
FEBRUARY/MARCH 2013
Intero Real Estate Services 12900 Saratoga Ave. Saratoga, CA 95070 Phone: (408) 863-3001 FAX: (408) 351-0190 kconnor@interorealestate.com http://www.KimConnorBetterLiving.com
Inside This Issue
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 > MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2 > FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3 > CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3 > HOME SALES & PENDING CHART ........ 4
DRE #01735816
The Real Estate Report local market trends Trends at a Glance
SANTA CLARA COUNTY
Low Inventory & High Demand Push Prices Up Property prices continue to surge, driven by a severe lack of inventory and soaring demand. While inventory did increase last month, it is still at abysmally low levels. There were 651 single-family homes for sale as of the 5th of January.
The median price for homes jumped 36.2% yearover-year. The median price has been higher than the year before for the past twelve months. The sales price to list price ratio has been over 100% for the past eleven months. It was 102%. The average price for homes was up 29.6% yearover-year.
(Single-family Homes) Jan 13 Dec 12 Jan 12 Median Price: $ 660,000 $ 682,500 $ 484,750 Av erage Price: $ 825,759 $ 908,873 $ 637,247 546 899 666 Home Sales: 1,068 980 1,578 Pending Sales: 651 534 2,222 Inv entory : 102.0% 102.6% 99.0% Sale/List Price Ratio: 40 36 66 Day s on Market: 36 18 100 Day s of Inv entory :
To compare, there were 2,222 homes for sale last January; 3,536 for sale in January 2011; and 5,273 Pending home sales were down 32.3% year-overfor sale in January 2009. year. That’s the third month in a row pending sales This has driven year-over-year prices up by have been down, portending a slow first quarter in double-digits. For single-family homes, the median 2013. price has increased by double-digits for the past eight months in a row. The median price for condos SALES MOMENTUM… has enjoyed ten straight months of double-digit for homes dropped 0.8 of a point to +3.8. gains.
PRICING MOMENTUM…
Increasing prices will ameliorate low inventory, has been on the up-swing the past eleven months. eventually. As prices increase, more homeowners It rose 2.5 points to +13.8. will be able to sell at a profit. Also, home builders will start building more as they see profits increase. CONDO STATISTICS… The median price for condos was up 57.4% yearJANUARY MARKET STATISTICS over-year. That’s ten straight months of doubleSales of single-family, re-sale homes ended the digit gains. year off 18% year-over-year. The 546 homes sold Sales were off 6.1%, while pending sales fell 37%. in January were the least number of homes sold since January 2008.
Santa Clara County Price Differences from January 2012 & Peak & Trough Hom es: detached YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough 3-month 29% -22% 51% Jun-07 Mar-09 12-month 16% -22% 28% Nov -07 Nov -09 Hom es: attached 3-month 44% -24% 49% Jun-07 Apr-09 12-month 26% -28% 26% Dec-07 Dec-11
Condo inventory was down 79.6% from last January. As of the 5th of the month, there were 170 condos for sale in the county. This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It’s important to be calm and realistic. If you don’t know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let’s discuss your situation and your options.
Santa Clara County Homes: Sales Momentum 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAM J JA SOND1 -20.0 8 9 0 1 2 3 -40.0 -60.0 Sales
median
Pending
© 2013 rereport.com
Kim Connor | kconnor@interorealestate.com | Phone: (408) 863-3001
The Real Estate Report MORTGAGE RATES HIGHER; BLAME THE GOOD NEWS Feb 2, 2012 -- Moderately good economic news contin-
Even with its massive balance sheet expansion, the Federal Reserve's program to keep interest and mortgage rates low constitutes only a portion of the market, so there are limits to the Fed's ability to maintain rates at rock bottom levels.
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
The chart above shows the National monthly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages as compiled by HSH.com. The average includes mortgages of all sizes, including conforming, "expanded conforming," and jumbo.
HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed another ten basis points (0.10%) to 3.83%, its highest level since September 14, 2012. The FRMI's 15-year companion increased by another eight basis points, landing at 3.10% for the week. FHA-backed 30-year FRMs rose by six hundredths of a percentage point (.06%), moving up to 3.42%, as inexpensive mortgage money remains readily available to credit- or equity-impaired borrowers. For a change, the over-
There doesn't appear to be much grave concern over the rise in mortgage rates. That's good, since there shouldn't be. Interest rates rise and fall all the time as investors wander from one end of the see-saw to the other. If the typical pattern plays out, the fairly mad rush to stocks in January will peter out, some funds will go back to be parked in bonds, and interest rates will ease again. This is normal, even welcome behavior from a broad standpoint, with these forays into risk much healthier expressions than is fearfully stashing money in a virtual mattress. It also should be noted that rising rates can also temper demands for funds (mortgages especially) and as pipelines thin out, lenders tend to price more aggressively to attract business again. Borrowers should always keep in mind that the most dire of economic situations brings the lowest interest rates, and if we are enjoying even the perception of better growth that rates should be expected to move off bottoms as they have. In the present situation, they have moved upward mildly, but not enough yet to crash the refinance market nor even scratch the purchase market.
Santa Clara County Homes - Prices & Sales (3-month moving average—prices in $000's) Median & Average Prices
10-12 07-12 04-12 01-12 10-11 07-11 04-11 01-11 10-10 07-10 04-10 01-10 10-09 07-09 04-09 01-09 10-08 07-08 04-08 01-08 10-07 07-07 04-07 01-07 10-06 07-06 04-06 01-06 3.0%
ues to press mortgage rates higher, as investors move their money from safe-haven investments in bonds and into riskier assets such as equities. Major stock market indexes across the globe put in some of their best January gains in years, all coming at the expense of bonds, whose yields rise as investor demand wanes.
all average rate for 5/1 Hybrid ARMs wasn't immune to the trend, rising by five basis points to 2.76%.
$1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100
1,300 1,100 900 700 500 300 0 FMAMJJASOND0 FMAMJJASOND1 FMAMJJASOND1 FMAMJJASOND1 FMAMJJASOND1 8 9 0 1 2 3
100
Single-family Hom e Sales
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Santa Clara County - January 2013 Single-Family Homes
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Cities County Campbell Cupertino Gilroy Los Altos Los Altos Hills Los Gatos Milpitas Monte Sereno Morgan Hill Mountain View Palo Alto San Jose Santa Clara Saratoga Sunny v ale
Prices Median Average Sales Pend Inven $ 660,000 $ 825,759 546 1,068 651 $ 705,000 $ 694,727 11 27 23 $ 1,180,000 $ 1,244,800 15 14 14 $ 461,000 $ 513,931 29 74 44 $ 1,922,500 $ 1,989,330 6 17 12 $ 2,160,000 $ 2,030,830 6 8 19 $ 1,555,000 $ 1,704,850 13 18 52 $ 524,000 $ 586,168 19 36 15 $ 1,813,000 $ 2,032,670 3 2 6 $ 600,000 $ 601,598 23 55 47 $ 1,123,950 $ 1,238,180 8 18 11 $ 2,157,000 $ 2,501,770 13 9 22 $ 614,250 $ 667,314 318 665 284 $ 635,000 $ 695,848 36 33 18 $ 1,775,000 $ 1,883,600 13 27 33 $ 900,000 $ 861,512 23 42 17
% Change from Year Before DOI 36 63 28 46 60 95 120 24 60 61 41 51 27 15 76 22
SP/LP 102.0% 101.9% 105.5% 101.9% 95.4% 101.1% 99.4% 103.4% 112.0% 97.5% 103.4% 101.4% 102.2% 103.1% 99.0% 104.4%
Prices Med Ave 36.2% 29.6% 2.0% -2.9% 0.1% 4.9% 27.2% 19.2% 64.3% 0.3% 10.8% 4.1% 37.7% 43.4% -8.1% 4.9% 9.9% 13.0% 34.8% 18.6% 31.6% 29.7% 42.4% 46.7% 40.6% 31.0% 22.1% 19.2% 38.7% 4.2% 27.7% 21.2%
Sales -18.0% -35.3% 114.3% -31.0% -14.3% 500.0% 8.3% 26.7% 0.0% 21.1% 0.0% -27.8% -7.3% 50.0% -7.1% 4.5%
Pend2 -32.3% -22.9% -30.0% -39.8% 13.3% 0.0% -25.0% -54.4% 100.0% -25.7% -37.9% -59.1% -33.4% -44.1% -20.6% -20.8%
Inven -70.7% -20.7% -12.5% -43.6% -62.5% -20.8% -18.8% -51.6% 0.0% -50.0% -59.3% -21.4% -61.2% -70.0% -42.1% -65.3%
Santa Clara County Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Price Change 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 8 9 0 1 2 3 -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% © 2012 rereport.com
FORECLOSURE STATISTICS Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, in Santa Clara County fell 9.9% in December from November, and they were down 44% year-over-year. Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before sale, were down 16.9% compared to November, and were down 61.7% year-over-year. After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank.
If your house is currently listed with another broker this is not intended as a solicitation of that listing.
Properties going back to the bank dropped 15.9% in December from November. Year-over-year, they were down 69.9%. The total number of properties that have had a notice of default filed decreased by 34.2% year-over-year. The total number of properties scheduled for sale declined by 43.8% year-over-year. The total number of properties owned by banks was down 54.2% year-over-year to about 849. For further details and a city-by-city breakdown of foreclosure statistics, go to http://foreclosureradar.com.
Santa Clara County Condos- Prices & Sales $600 $550 $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100
500
Table Definitions _______________
450 400 350 300 250 200
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 8 9 0 1 2 3
Condo Sales
Median & Average Prices
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's)
Median Price The price at which 50% of prices were higher and 50%were lower.
150
Average Price
100
Add all prices and divide by the number of sales.
SP/LP
Santa Clara County - January 2013 Condos/Townhomes Cities County Campbell Cupertino Gilroy Los Altos Los Gatos Milpitas Morgan Hill Mountain View Palo Alto San Jose Santa Clara Saratoga Sunny v ale
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
Prices Median Average Sales Pend Inven 425,000 $ 461,700 230 468 170 468,000 $ 514,875 8 13 5 620,000 $ 589,000 5 5 4 174,222 $ 174,222 2 7 7 902,500 $ 762,500 3 0 2 649,000 $ 659,286 7 11 6 408,500 $ 401,500 7 18 8 362,500 $ 369,750 4 13 4 757,000 $ 692,702 21 17 10 510,000 $ 663,000 7 4 10 369,500 $ 385,708 137 305 96 422,500 $ 434,276 10 27 11 719,500 $ 721,500 4 3 3 576,500 $ 555,202 15 45 4
% Change from Year Before DOI 22 19 24 105 20 26 34 30 14 43 21 33 23 8
SP/LP 104.0% 104.7% 103.4% 104.6% 98.7% 102.1% 105.5% 101.5% 105.3% 101.6% 103.9% 107.8% 102.2% 104.2%
Prices Med Ave 57.4% 45.0% 61.4% 65.9% 10.1% 7.5% -24.3% -22.6% 16.8% -9.1% 92.0% 83.7% 99.3% 50.3% 53.3% 52.5% 86.9% 56.6% -35.1% -16.6% 47.8% 43.3% 43.2% 34.4% 38.2% 55.7% 12.1% 17.5%
Sales -6.1% -11.1% 25.0% -33.3% 0.0% 40.0% -36.4% 0.0% 61.5% 75.0% 2.2% -47.4% 33.3% 0.0%
Pend2 -37.0% -38.1% -16.7% 0.0% n/a -21.4% -53.8% 8.3% -63.0% -33.3% -43.5% -50.9% 50.0% -6.3%
Inven -79.6% -76.2% -50.0% -22.2% -71.4% -71.4% -60.0% -55.6% -60.0% -33.3% -68.2% -69.4% -50.0% -88.6%
Sales price to list price ratio or the price paid for the property divided by the asking price.
DOI Days of Inventory, or how many days it would take to sell all the property for sale at the current rate of sales.
Pend Property under contract to sell that hasn’t closed escrow.
Inven Number of properties actively for sale as of the last day of the month.
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THE REAL ESTATE REPORT Santa Clara County Kim Connor Intero Real Estate Services 12900 Saratoga Ave. Saratoga, CA 95070 Phone: (408) 863-3001 FAX: (408) 351-0190 kconnor@interorealestate.com http://www.KimConnorBetterLiving.com
Santa Clara County Homes: Pending & Existing Home Sales (3-month moving average) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 Sales
Pending
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