EMERGING MANAGERS

Mr. Akshay Kumar

MBA, 2022 - 2024 International Management Institution

New Delhi Management of Waiting Lines

Introduction

Awaiting line is when one or more customers wait for service. The customers can be people or objects, such as machines waiting for maintenance, sales orders waiting to be processed or shipped, or materials in inventory waiting to be used. In order to get an intuitive feeling for the behavior of waiting lines, let us start with a very simple model where the rate of the arrivals is homogeneous (i.e., the time between successive arrivals is always the same, like clockwork), and the rate of service is also homogeneous. Two observations can immediately be made:

1. If the rate of service is faster than the rate of arrival (even for a tiny bit), there will never be a queue and every arrival will be serviced immediately.

2. If the rate of service is slower than the rate of arrival (again even if by a tiny bit), the queue will continuously grow, and in theory could reach infinity.

Many people are surprised to learn that waiting lines tend to form even though a system is basically underloaded. For example, a fast-food restaurant may have the capacity to handle an average of200 orders per hour and yet experience waiting lines even though the average number of orders is only 150 per hour. In reality, customers arrive at random intervals rather than at evenly spaced intervals, and some orders take longer to fill than others. In other words, both arrivalsand servicetimesexhibit a highdegreeofvariability. servicescannot beperformed ahead oftime and stored until needed, the system at times becomes temporarily overloaded, giving rise to waiting lines. However, at other times, the system is idle because there are no customers. It follows that in systems where variability is minimal or nonexistent (e.g., because arrivals can be scheduled and service time is constant), waiting lines do not ordinarily form. Just in Time or Lean systems strive to achieve this.

Characteristics

There are numerous queuing models from which an analyst can choose. Naturally, much of the success of the analysis will depend on choosing an appropriate model. Model choice is affected by the characteristics of the system under investigation. The main characteristics are:

1.) Population Source: Theapproachto useinanalyzing aqueuing problemdependsonwhether the potential number of customers is limited. There are two possibilities: infinite-source and finite-source populations. In an infinite-source situation, the potential number of customers greatlyexceedssystemcapacity. Infinite-sourcesituations exist whenever service isunrestricted. Examples are supermarkets, drugstores, banks, restaurants, theaters, amusement centers, and toll bridges. When the potential number of customers is limited, a finite-source situation exists. An example is the repair technician responsible for a certain number of machines in a company.

2.) Number of Servers (Channels): The capacity of queuing systems is a function of the capacity of each server and the number of servers being used. The terms server and channel are synonymous, and it is generally assumed that each channel can handle one customer at a time. Systemscan beeither single- or multiple-channel. Agroupofserversworking together asateam, such as a surgical team, is treated as a single-channel system. Multiple-channel systems, those with morethanoneserver arecommonly found in banks, at airlineticket counters, at auto service centers, and at gas stations. A related distinction is the number of steps or phases in a queuing system. For example, at theme parks, people go from one attraction to another. Each attraction constitutes a separate phase where queues can usually do form.

3.) Arrival and Service Patterns: Waiting lines are a direct result of arrival and service variability. They occur because random, highly variable arrival and service patterns cause systems to be temporarily overloaded. In many instances, the variabilities can be described by theoreticaldistributions. Infact, the most commonlyused models assume that arrivaland service rates can be described by a Poisson distribution or, equivalently, that the interarrival time and service time can be described by a negative exponential distribution.

The psychology of waiting

Despite management’s best efforts, in some instances it is not feasible to shorten waiting times. Nevertheless, steps can be taken in certain situations that make the situation more acceptable to those waiting in line, particularly when the waiting line consists of people. The importance of doing so should not be underestimated. Studies have shown a difference, sometimes a remarkable difference betweentheactualtimecustomers spend waiting and their perceived time. Several factors can influence the differences. One is the reason for being in line for example waiting for police or fire personnel, waiting at the emergency room, having other appointments or a plane or train to catch. Aside from those situations, where the level of anxiety can make even short waits seem long, in many instances management can reduce their customers’ perception of the waiting time, those waiting in line have nothing else to occupy their thoughts, they often tend to focus on the fact that they are waiting in line and usually perceive the waiting timeto be longer thantheactualwaiting time. Conversely, if something else occupiesthemwhile they wait, their perception of the waiting time is often less than their actual waiting time. Examplesofdistractions include in-flight snacks, mealsor videos, and magazinesand televisions in waiting rooms. Giving customers something to do while waiting, such as filling out forms, can make their wait seem productive. Of course, some customers provide their own distractions. Also, informing customers how long the wait will be can reduce anxiety. For example, call centers sometimes announce the expected waiting time before a service representative will be available, and restaurants usually are able to tell patrons how long they will wait to be seated.

Managers constraints

Managers may be able to reduce waiting times by actively managing one or more system constraints. Typically, in the short term, the facility size and the number of servers are fixed resources. However, some other options might be considered:

Use temporary workers: Using temporary or part-time workers during busy periods may be possible. Trade-offs might involve training costs, quality issues, and perhaps slower service than would be provided by regular workers.

Shift demand: In situations where demand varies by time of day, or time of week, variable pricing strategies can be effective in smoothing demand more evenly on the system. Theaters use this option with lower prices to shift demand from busy times to slower times. Restaurants offer early-bird specials to accomplish this. Some retail businesses offer coupons that are valid only for certain (slow) days or times.

Standardize the service: We saw the effect of constant service on waiting lines compared to nonconstant service the number and time in line were cut in half). The more service can be standardized, the greater the impact on waiting lines.

Look for a bottleneck: One aspect of a process may be largely responsible for a slow service rate; improving that aspect of the process might yield a disproportionate increase in the service rate. Employees often have insights that can be exploited.

Conclusion Queues are an important part of the world of operations management. In this seminar, we describe common queuing systems and presented mathematical models for analyzing them. Forecasts are a critical part of the part of the operations manager’s function. Demand forecast drives a firm’s production, capacity, and scheduling systems and affects the financial, marketing, and personnel planning functions. Qualitative approaches employ judgement, experience, intuition and different factors difficult to qualify, while quantitative approaches use historical data and causal or associative relations, to project future demand.

How McDonald’s Operation and Chain Management Has Given the Company a Competitive Sustainable Edge Report

Introduction

Research has uncovered that using staples has become a typical practice that has acquired worthiness in the public eye. Consequently, organizations like McDonald’s have embraced utilizing manageable methods to help their activities, mainly using supply chains. Since it is one ofthe fastest food administration shops, theorganization has various diversified eateries in a few regions. This has empowered the organization to adjust its human asset and client requirements. For example, McDonald’s has worked on its functional administration inside the stock chains. This is one variable that has raised its tasks to a manageable edge. The organization has fostered areas of strength between its franchisees and the providers, making it conceivable to convey perfect and essential administrations to clients.

McDonald'stasks aredesigned ina waythat theyuse franchiseesto connect to theglobal market. From a cautious survey of the history, more than 10,000 establishment shops are overseen and worked inside and outside the US. The organization has had the option to contact nearby shoppers directly through establishment activity. Also, the foundation of various chains in various regions has empowered the organization to connect more individuals than other organizations managing food items. For example, proofhas beenuncovered that theorganization has laid out a limit of 20,000 cafés over 100 expresses everywhere. 80% of these eateries are establishments. Consequently, fostering a worldwide showcasing methodology is one issue that has situated the organization at a supportable edge.

It is vital to note that a large portion of the organization's hierarchical tasks, for example, providing and creating consumable items, are outfitted towards fulfilling clients' necessities. Thus, the organization's duties are described by special missions, even circulation, and the creation of normalized items for end clients.

Besides, inside the tasks and supply chains, the organization has utilized a promoting blend methodology that goes about as the ruling establishment through which showcasing plan is laid. More consideration has been followed through on the four ideas: cost, items, spot, and advancement. Furthermore, various factors have been consolidated in the promoting blend. These incorporate individuals, processes, and actual areas, known as the 7ps.

As indicated by Withiam, supply binds have been seen to be the most suitable devices for expanding the interest in delivered merchandise by the organization. Also, the stock chains guarantee that the organization can execute and address clients' issues. Hence, supply affixes enhance the activities of the organization. Rainbird alludes to the stockpile chains as worth impetuses.

At McDonald, the stockpile binds are intentionally made to guarantee deliberate administration, and consequently, they help to change the hierarchical potential into the real world. It is critical to note that the organization has embraced utilizing an inventory network to lessen functional expenses, reward buyers, and lift efficiencies. This has generally assisted with raising the standing of the organization on a worldwide scale.

Truly, supply chains increment association strength inside the market and subsequently set off the administration to fix approaching difficulties determined to increment adequacy in its activities. This has made it workable for the organization to accomplish long-haul objectives. Furthermore, Lashley explains that the inventory network impacts hierarchical activities and sets off essential reasoning.

For instance, McDonald’s Organization has expanded its efficiency to guarantee consistent stock inside the chains. It requires the supervisory group to think usually and concoct a viable method for developing the creation proportion to accomplish the objectives. Expanding the supply of staples through diversified cafés has made the association dependable.

Clients gain certainty with the organization's products since they are accessible and available. This is one of the elements that have empowered McDonald’s to acquire fame and acknowledgment, thus uplifting its functional maintainability edge.

With I am explains that the future business presence is exceptionally subject to the dedication of end clients. In this situation, devotion can be accomplished by upgrading excellent quality and convenient client administrations. There are various ways that McDonald’s has utilized to support client dependability in its tasks and cycles inside supply chains.

For example, decreased costs have empowered clients to favour their items over those from different organizations. Subsequently, it is distinct that the client situated calculated become a good idea in the association. Most associations produce merchandise; however, they can't go after shoppers successfully in remote spots.

Consequently, clients must avoid using such products or even note their reality. Therefore, the store network assists with connecting for comonomers who don't need to cause additional expenses to get these items. Subsequently, since McDonald’s has figured out how to get to different regions of the planet, this has helped the fame of its merchandise and consequently raised its manageability edge.

For a considerable time, McDonald's has had the option to incorporate its business processes through the inventory chains. This has offered clients support, items, data, and influence worth. Supply chains likewise improve coordination by which the progression of merchandise is managed by providers and dispersed equitably to end clients. Moreover, the foundation of various chains assists with circulating the organization's labor and products in multiple locales, an element that builds the piece of the pie.

To recap everything, McDonald’s is an organization that arrangements with groceries. The organization is perhaps the biggest café in the USA and has various diversified bistros from one side of the planet to the other. It has created vital activities and supply chains, empowering it to increase its maintainability edge amid contenders. For instance, the organization has various diversified eateries worldwide, making it conceivable to build the deal volume.

The organization has likewise settled various stockpile chains in additional than 100 nations everywhere. This has made it conceivable to disperse products equally to fulfill its end clients. Prominently, a solid arrangement of diversified eateries and supply chains has made it feasible for the hierarchicalactivities to addressthe issues ofclients agreeably. Other pivotalfactors have been a significant concentration for the organization. These incorporate quality, cost, item, area, individuals, and climate.

Conclusion

Macdonald's activity and supply chains have empowered the organization to acquire the upper hand in the worldwide market. Late study reports showed that the organization has strived to create supportable and dynamic methodologies to help its activity remain top among its rivals in the robust business climate. This paper examines how McDonald's activity and chain executives have given the organization a bitter and reasonable edge.

Ms. Navya Reddy MBA, 2022-2024 IBS Hyderabad

In what ways can technology aid the expansion of microfinance institutions?

Microfinance institutes are those organizations that provide low-income people with financial assistance. Microloans, micro-savings, and microinsurance are some of these offerings. The primary objective of microfinance is to quickly make financial services available to all social classes equally by assisting them in becoming self-sufficient and, at the same time, encouraging social change among specific community segments. Worldwide usage of digital technologies is accelerating, significantly affecting how people live. Digital innovation expands possibilities, opens up new communication channels, and boosts productivity for both people and companies.

In India, the Gujarat-based Self-Employed Women's Association (SEWA) established SEWA Bank in 1974 and was the first organization to implement microfinance. Since then, this bank has offered financial support to those looking to expand their businesses in rural regions.

Features of technology in MIF's

 Customer centricity

 Reduce operational risk

 New business models

 Partnership and collaboration

 Consumer protection

Since the early 2000s, technology use has been crucial to MFI growth and an essential objective for the regulator, supported byongoing changes in consumer literacy and the rising use ofdigital contact methods. For instance, a study bythe National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) to evaluate the adoption of digital payments in India revealed that 25% of consumers in lowerincome groups are likely to choose digital modes of the transaction (average household income per year: INR 110,000). For customers on unified national platforms, 34 India Stack has given the required digital infrastructure and rails with various interconnected services. The economy centered around a paperless, cashless, presence less, and consent-based framework with four primary levels.

Lending value chain its components and use of technology in it: CustomerAcquisition: Withthe help ofdigitaltools and goods like mobile point-of-sales(mPoS), kirana shops, mobile recharge locations, and local influencers can interact with, attract, and serve underprivileged consumers by giving them a seamless digital experience in a secure setting. Additionally, facilitating these solutions are video-based KYC, optical character recognition (OCR)-based national ID verification, and AI fraud detection and early warning system technology. Lack of customer awareness and dependence on physical modes of interaction has been a challenge for MFIs. Underwriting, verification, and risk management: The MFI borrowers are typically thin-filed clients.

Technology is essential to determine the customers' capacity and willingness to pay. Gathering and improving datatouchplaces likeUtility billpayments, mobile recharge data, information from land records, etc., canhelp MFI lenders evaluate borrowers' credibility more effectively and create products based on cash flows rather than assets owned. As a result, it becomes imperative technologically to make the required application programming interface (API) capabilities to enable easy integration with various data providers.

Most customers who take out microcredit originate from low-income families and typically need a credit history. Furthermore, evaluating prospective borrowers' creditworthiness is difficult because insufficient supporting documentation and collateral have challenged MFIs.

Services and collection: Most microcredit customers originate from low-income families and typically need a credit history. Furthermore, evaluating prospective borrowers' creditworthiness is difficult, as more supporting documentation and collateral are required. FinTechs are using multilingual chatbots to serve underbanked customers and address issues with digital literacy by answering commonly asked questions. As mobile technology has developed, MFIs' chances and addressissueswithdigital literacybyanswering commonlyaskedquestions. As mobiletechnology has developed, MFIs' chances to deal with repayment issues have multiplied. The interoperable payment system through various digital rails, like UPI and AePS, could enable prompt loan repayment akin to a utility payment model. MFIs might also consider using digitized distribution methods for their assets. Customers can use these techniques to make digital payments online or through BC-assisted services. The reliance on physical forms of communication makes it difficult for MFIs to connect with their last-mile borrowers. The traditional payment touchpoints leave a gap in the collection process and undermine customer confidence.

Fraud Detection: Operational frauds are some of the kinds of fraud that happen during loan disbursements and repayment, including borrowers with false names and non-existent clients. Giving loans to customers who are not verified and failing to keep records of the actual loan amount disbursed are two frequent examples of fraud.

Future Scenario: The use of technology creates new opportunities and improves origination, repayment, and client contact methods. The availability of different services, such as insurance, savings, and low-cost payment infrastructure, will be aided by technology.

Payment integrations: To improve their position inthe market, MFIs have used Fintech in several different methods. It can use FinTechs to make mobile wallet use and debt repayment more efficient. They are enhancing the accessibility of funds.

Analytics: Technology has paved the way for a new era of analytics in the microfinance industry.

New Channels: The financially excluded society sector will benefit from the lower-cost financial products and services new players like mobile operators and distribution networks provide.

Global Expansion: In the upcoming years, it is more likely that microfinance institutions will expand internationally and offer their services to nearly all economically excluded sectors, significantly assisting in the fight against poverty. Microfinance companies can extend their offerings/products thanks to technology. The clients and their requirements are more likely to be the institutions' primary concern than the products and procedures.

Security: To increase security and compliance, microfinance organizations implement technologies like Finflux.

Technologiescurrently used in wealth management orbanking sectorsforabetterdigital experience platform are: o Blockchain: Blockchain is an emerging financial services technology movement that is revolutionizing the financial world as we know it, but adoption of it is still quite slow. The technology that supports Bitcoin, known as the blockchain, has been adopted by major financial institutions like JP Morgan Chase and is regarded as one of the strongest possibilities available to banks and other financial institutions right now. o Artificial intelligence: The digital transformation of finance increasingly incorporates artificial intelligence solutions. Theyare used byfinancial institutions ofall sizes, ranging from big banks to tiny credit unions, and are very common. Back office, product distribution, risk management, marketing, and security are all impacted by AI. Machines use data entry, risk assessment, and loan form processing algorithms. o Chatbots: The more widely known artificial intelligence applications are Chatbots. Smaller banks can easily access these cutting-edge financial services technologies, including tools to automate tasks like documentation, data sharing, data analysis, customer contact, and much more. o Automation in financial services: The most popular instrument for automation, known as robotic process automation, or RPA, mainly automates fixed and repetitive processes. RPAs primarily function to produce reports, log data, automate repeatable processes, and maintain logs.

Conclusion:

Financial services such as microfinance organizations (MFIs) in rural areas where people are mainly involved in farming and legal services are not actively present;they haveoffered affordable and dependable credit services. Microfinance institutions have grown in acclaim as a tool to fight povertyand give families, and small businessesaccessto capital. Women's freedomis oneofmany objectives that many MFIs strive to accomplish. Significant progress has been made in the last few years to include women more monetarily. More women participate in financial tasks like saving, borrowing money, paying bills, etc. Even though the growth rate of women's financial inclusion appears encouraging, more should be done to improve gender equity. With the aid of technology, microfinance institutions can aid in narrowing this gender disparity, develop digital abilities, provide financial help, and have a more significant impact on people of local communities.

Ms. Shivani

MBA, 2022 -24 IBS Hyderabad

Evolution of demand forecasting methods through the years

Introduction

Forecasts are the current trending approach that helps the managers to enhance their production and can able to anticipate the future effectively and efficiently. Earlier manufacturing units and production houses were producing in bulk quantities. Once the customers start to adapt the new products and rapid changes in their taste and preferences will lead to the produced quantity go in vain. But thanks to the forecasting techniques, with the help of this managers are anticipating the future sales, not only the sales but also the required amount of quantity to produce. In this article we write to explain the evolution of demand forecasting techniques in a detail.

Forecasting techniques are broadly classified into two categories. Primarily qualitative and secondarily quantitative. Qualitative techniques rely on the use of Judgement, expertise and also needs expertise to formulate the forecast. However quantitative techniques need past or historical data for forecasting. Based on the availability of the data managers can create various trends and identify the hidden patterns in each data set. Forecasting techniques can give the accurate results but not the exact values. Moreover, all the forecasts include a certain degree of inaccuracy and allowance should be made for this.

Forecasting Techniques: Here are some ofthe traditional forecasting techniques which includes qualitative and qualitative methods:

Qualitative forecasting techniques

 Sales force Opinion: Members of the sales staff or the customer service staff are often considered as the good sources of information. Because they have a direct contact with the consumers. Since they are the one who is directly contacting the end users, they are aware of the end consumer tastes and preferences. Often, they also create obstacle because of the service gap which mainly consider the differences between the customers’ expectations and perceived service quality. Often, they mis interpret the consumers’ needs and deliver the false information to the back - end team. Thus, after severalperiods ofgood sales, theymay tend to betoo optimistic. Inaddition, if forecasts are used to establish sales quotas, there will be a conflict of interest because it is to the salesperson’s advantage to provide low sales estimates.

 Executive opinion: A small group of upper-level managers for example marketing, finance,operationsand other management related crossfunctionaldepartments. Executive plan is often used as a part of the long - range planning and new product development. It has the advantage of bringing together the considerable knowledge and talents of various managers. However, there is the risk that the view of one person will prevail, and the possibility that diffusing responsibility for the forecast over the entire group may result in less pressure to produce a good forecast.

 Consumer surveys: Because it is the consumers who ultimately determine demand, it seems natural to solicit input from them. In some instances, every customer or potential customer can be contacted. However, usually there are too many customers or there is no way to identify all potential customers. Therefore, organizations seeking consumer input usually resort to consumer surveys, which enable them to sample consumer opinions. The obvious advantage of consumer surveys is that they can tap information that might not be available elsewhere. On the other hand, a considerable amount of knowledge and skill is required to construct a survey, administer it, and correctly interpret the results for valid information. Surveys can be expensive and time-consuming. In addition, even under the best conditions, surveys of the general public must contend with the possibility of irrational behavior patterns. For example, much of the consumer’s thoughtful information gathering before purchasing a new car is often undermined by the glitter of a new car showroom or a high-pressure sales pitch. Along the same lines, low response rates to a mail survey should but often don’t make the results suspect. If these and similar pitfalls can be avoided, surveys can produce useful information.

Other approaches: A manager may solicit opinions from a number of other managers and staff people. Occasionally, outside experts are needed to help with a forecast. Advice may be needed on political or economic conditions in the United Statesor aforeign country, or some other aspect of importance with which an organization lacks familiarity. Another approach is the Delphi method, an iterative process intended to achieve a consensus forecast. This method involves circulating a series of questionnaires among individuals who possess the knowledge and ability to contribute meaningfully. Responses are kept anonymous, which tends to encourage honest responses and reduces the risk that one person’s opinion will prevail. Each new questionnaire is developed using the information extracted from the previous one, thus enlarging the scope of information on which participants can base their judgments. The Delphi method has been applied to a variety of situations, not all of which involve forecasting. The discussion here is limited to its use as a forecasting tool. As a forecasting tool, the Delphi method is useful for technological forecasting, that is, for assessing changes in technologyand their impact onanorganization. Often the goal is to predict when a certain event will occur. For instance, the goal of a Delphi forecast might be to predict when video telephones might be installed in at least 50 percent of residential homes or when a vaccine for a disease might be developed and ready for mass distribution. For the most part, these are long-term, single-time forecasts, which usually have very little hard information to go by or data that are costly to obtain, so the problem does not lend itself to analytical techniques. Rather, judgments of experts or others who possess sufficient knowledge to make predictions are used.

Quantitative forecasting techniques:

Regression analysis method: the most effective and cutting-edge forecasting method. This aids in forecasting trends. With the aid of a regression equation, one is able to estimate the patterns for many months even if the manager lacks the most recent data for forecasting. Businesses can discover how one thing might affect another bylooking at the relationship between two different variables (independent and dependent). They may, for instance, contrast sales volume with the cyclical natureofthe seasons. Sales for the company would be the dependent variable since they depend on the season if findings indicate that they tend to rise or fall depending on the season. Here, they can investigate how closely these two factors are connected to have a better understanding of how different seasons will affect future sales demand.

Econometrics method: In this approach, mathematical equations are created to help illustrate the interrelationships between various economic agents. This forecast's information can be used to demonstrate the relationship between variables like inflation, exchange rates, and GNP and how changes in these variables effect an organization's performance.

Index number method: This method, also referred to as the barometer method, is better suited for short-termquantitative forecasting. Using index numbers, firms use this strategyto gaugethe status of the economy over a variety of different time periods. As a result, businesses can plan for dropsindemand orincreases indemand depending onthestateofthe localor globaleconomy by knowing where the economy is headed in the near future.

Input analysis method: The end-use technique, often known as I-O, is another type of quantitative economic analysis. Businesses can forecast how a particular input would result in a particular output using the information from this forecast. An I-O system, for instance, will consider the cost of supplies, worker input to satisfy demand, and how much they might invest.

Recent trends in the forecasting methods:

In addition to creating forecasts, corporations aim to incorporate the projections into planning, optimization, and reporting systems. As one survey respondent, ForecastPro, put it, "More and more business users are calling for comprehensive forecasting solutions that can be used as the backbone of ongoing corporate processes like sales and operations planning (S&OP), demand planning, and supply chain optimization in addition to just generating statistical forecasts." This demand seems to be being met by several vendors.

Automatization: Automated model selection, alerts, visuals, and reporting are all elements that forecasters are interested in. There is a greater inclination to trust model design to the software as data complexity and velocity increase, especially when several projections are being generated at once. As a result, almost all of the suppliers contacted claim to have some kind of automatic or semi-automatic forecasting capability.

Visualization: Visualizations ofa high calibre arequickly becoming "table stakes" for forecasting software programmes. Several of the tools available now offer a variety of graphics in addition to traditional statistical output, such as box plots, normal probability plots, histograms, ANOVA Pareto charts, decomposition charts, and automatically created range-forecast plots.

Capacity improvement: In addition to offering ways to incorporate more machine-learning techniques into their forecasting suites, forecasting software companies are paying more attention to "hard" forecasting challenges including the forecasting of intermittent demand and the forecasting of new products. To increase overall prediction accuracy, several providers provide the option to build automatic ensemble forecast models by integrating many forecasts made using various approaches.

Conclusion: Forecasting techniques are not without their limitations. The main limitation is that they cannot be used to forecast the future. For example, a forecast of the amount of new cars being produced in the next five years may be inaccurate if there is no data available on how many cars will be produced in each year. Also, forecasts must include some inaccuracy because it is impossible to predict accurately what will happen when a certain event occurs. As an example, you can’t predict exactly when a new computer system will be installed or when a new vaccine for a disease will be developed and ready for mass distribution.

Forecasting techniques are useful for technical forecasting but not so much for predicting the future. Forecasts can help managers understand trends and patterns in various areas of an organization's operations and can help them make decisions about which actions to take based on those trends and patterns. However, as with any forecasting technique, forecasters should always keep in mind that forecasts areonly one part of an overall strategy; they should also include other aspects such as product development plans, marketing strategies, sales force opinions and customer surveys.

Mr. Abilash N MBA, 2022 – 24 IBS Hyderabad

Introduction to Automatic Guided Vehicles(AGVs)

Automatic Guided Vehicles (AGVs) is an example of how automation can help business to optimize and increase their competitiveness. With AGV companies can reduce costs, increase efficiency and improve safety.

~ Henrik Christensen, Director of the contextual Robotics Institute at the University of California, San Diego

Introduction

The Automatic Guided Vehicles (AGVs) technology startedto develop and broaden during the late 20th century, it’s a portable unmanned, self-guided, and self-propelled vehicle or robot which is used to transport materials, products, and equipment in and around industrial buildings like warehouses, shop floors in manufacturing facilities. The AGVs are equipped with software and navigation systems that allow them to travel in a pre-programmed and determined path with marked lines or wires on the floor

These vehicles are powered by an electric motor and a battery unit that has the capacity to complete the in-house transportation process without much human interface. Adding to this the AGVs are efficient in handling various parts or loads, unsafe and potentially dangerous loads can be handled by them, and human error is minimized. They use sensors, radio waves, vision cameras, magnets, or lasers to respond to a change in the environment or any unexpected obstacles.

The purpose of using AGV’s are these unmanned vehicles are designed to operate efficiently and they tend to reduce operating costs and enhance productivity in, in-house material handling. They are programmed to avoid obstacles, follow safety protocols, and start and stop automatically to avoid mishaps or collisions.

Working of AGVs

The General working of an AGV contains the following tasks:

 Navigation and Mapping: The AGV uses onboard mapping software, with the help of a laser sensor they create a detailed map of the environment and this map is stored in onboard memory or in the central control system. Once the detailed map is stored, they move along the magnetic strip or tape which is embedded on the floor to execute the task assigned to it.

 Sensing: The AGV is equipped with various sensors such as cameras, and infrared sensors to detect obstacles in their path which are sensed and signals are sent to the control unit. These sensing units along with the control unit ensure the safe operation of AGV by avoiding collisions or any obstacles.

 Control: The control of the AGV is done by a central computer with the Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) which receives instructions from the supervisory control system inthecontrolroom. Based ontheenvironmentalconditions, thetypeofloadto behandled and the command received from the control room, the control system facilitates motion controlofAGVwhich controlsthe vehicle’s speed, position, and movementsand ensures safe and efficient operation.

 Route Planning: Once a Specific task is assigned to the AGV, the best route for the destination from its current position is planned by the AGV’s control system, taking the consideration of traffic, obstacles, and other environmental factors that affect the travel of AGVs.

 Communication and Coordination: The AGVs communicate with each other with a central control system to coordinate their movements and optimize their operation. This mainly helps in avoiding congestion in one area or two AGVs can work together to carry a large load ensuring safe operation.

 Task Execution: The AGVs are programmed to receive commands from the main control center regarding the task which needs to be done. Based on the command the AGV plans its path and picks up and drops off the materials at the instructed locations with the help of the Load handling equipment.

 Load Handling: The AGV is equipped with load-handling devices like conveyer belts, forks, and lifters, allowing the AGV to pick up and drop the material to be transported.

 Charging: When the AGV runs out of charge it has the tendency to locate the charging station, and dock itself for recharging.

Safety Features in AGVs

 Obstacle Detection Sensors: As said earlier, the AGV is equipped with this sensor, to detect anyobstacles in their path such as walls, persons, or other vehicles. When detected it slows down and comes to a halt.

 Emergency Stop Buttons: This button is placed on the AGV or in the surrounding operating area of the AGV allowing the worker to stop the vehicle in case of any emergency situation.

 Warning Signals: The vehicle is equipped with warning signals like a flashlight, and audible alarms to alert the nearby workers of their presence and movement.

 Bumpers: The AGV is equipped with bumpers in order to absorb the impact of the collision and minimize the damage to other AGV vehicles and surroundings.

 Zone Control and speed limit: The AGVs are equipped with zone control allowing them to operate at a particular zone and the speed limit in AGVs allows them to move at a safe speed which reduces the risk of collision.

Types of AGVs

Based on the nature of the work, these are some types of AGVs that are majorly used in industries: a) Unit load AGV: They are used in the transportation of unit loads like pallets or cartons in the organization. These types of AGVs can be found in manufacturing plants, warehouses and distribution centers. b) TuggerAGV: This kind ofvehicle is used in the transportation of multiple-load vehicles at once with the help of a trailer or cart. These types of vehicles are mostly found in the automobile industry where they are used to transport material between workstations. c) Forklift AGV: These kinds of vehicles are often used in warehouses and in manufacturing facilities and are used to move heavy loads with the help of a forklift in the AGV. d) Hybrid AGV: These AGVs combine multiple types of AGVs into a single system allowing for increased flexibility and efficiency. For example, a hybrid AGV can switch from unit load AGV to picking up AGV depending on the task. e) Picking AGV: These AGVs are designed to automatically pick up and place individual items upon aconveyer or apallet onthem for storage or itemretrieval fromstorageracks. These types of vehicles are often used in warehouses and distribution centers. f) Assembly line AGV: These vehicles are designed to operate along the assembly lines to move material and components which is to be assembled to make a finished product. These kinds of vehicles are mostly found in the automotive, electronics, and manufacturing industries. g) Cleaning AGV: These kinds of vehicles are found in the pharmaceutical and in semiconductor industries and is operated to clean the environments where they can transport material and product without introducing contaminants.

Advantages of Using AGVs: The AGVs reduces the risk ofaccidents in the workplace ensuring safe and efficient operation during in-house transportation and it has the ability to work 24*7 by optimizing the material flow with little human intervention. The AGVs minimize human error and labor costs and have the capacity to handle potentially unsafe parts efficiently.

Disadvantages of Using AGVs: As far as disadvantages are concerned, the initial cost for the setup of the AGV is high, followed by their limited flexibility in working because they do only specific tasks and they need regular maintenance for its seamless working.

Sectors Using AGVs

Asdiscussed, thesectors like Manufacturing, Warehouse and Distribution facilities, Health care, Food and Beverages, Automotive, Retail and Aerospace sector uses AGVs for their in-house transportation of goods like raw materials, semi-finished goods, finished goods, parts to be assembled etc

Mr. Subhagato

MBA 2022 – 24, IBS Hyderabad

3D Printing and its impact on New Product Development

An opportunity is transformed into a product to satisfy a customer through a comprehensive set of multidisciplinary processes known as new product development.

NPD is the engine that propels businesses and is essential to their natural expansion. Strong global competition, unquenchable consumer demand, and evolving consumer behaviour and technology force businesses to invest in new products in order to succeed or to stay in business.

The importance of introducing new products can be summarised in these “Seven reasons why new product development is necessary.”

 Changing consumer

 Increasing competition

 Technological advancement

 New opportunities (growth and development)

 Risk diversification

 To increase company & brand reputation

 To utilise excess capacity

Now the media spotlight has focused a lot of attention on 3D printing recently. It has been portrayed as both the manufacturing industry's saviour and nothing more than a means of producing cheap trinkets. However, 3D printing has established its worth and applicability. Its effectiveness as a tool for product development and manufacturing is beyond question. Through its promotion of creativity, accessible customization, and design freedom, 3D printing has completely changed how products are developed.

Theterm"3Dprinting,"also knownas"additive manufacturing,"refersto avarietyofprocedures used to construct three-dimensional objects. A machine builds up layers of material into a specific shape while being controlled by a computer.

The template for a 3D print job is typically made using a CAD (computer-aided design) programme, which also creates the virtual design and all the necessary dimensions for making a physical object. A 3D scanner can also be used to create the printing template for an existing object.

Let's examine how this technology is altering the process of creating new products and making businesses more agile.

Higher-quality Goods

When businesses try to save money byusing traditionalprocesses, the quality of the end product suffers. Because subtractive processes like CNC and injection moulding are not appropriate for optimising product design, this is the reason. 3D printing, on the other hand, guarantees a highquality product development process without compromising any of the desired requirements. A 3D manufacturer can accommodate all requests, whether they involve plastics, ceramics, or durable metals. This innovation lowers the bar for high-quality products.

Highly Flexible & Cost-Effective

The product development process is becoming more agile and cost-effective thanks to 3D printing technology. When compared to conventional techniques, additive manufacturing provides a greater variety of materials at a lower price. It's the perfect technology for businesses conducting extensive research and development. Processes become agile as improvisations can be carried out without having to start from scratch. Businesses can use 3D printers to create any type of project, whether it be a single model or a full-scale production.

Easy of prototyping

The most trustworthy advantage of 3D printing technology is that it allows designers to quickly make physical prototypes of two designs so they can compare them. With conventional manufacturing, rapid prototyping becomes expensive and resource-intensive. High-quality prototypes can be created by engineers to improve design and usability. Manufacturing takes place more quickly because 3d printers don't need tooling or support equipment. Businesses can identify design and functional issues early in the manufacturing process, saving time and resources.

Considerably faster

Due to its breakneck speed, 3D printing technology is revolutionising the entire process of designing andproducing newproducts.Thisprocess isquicker than many conventional methods, regardlessofthecomplexity, quantity, or materials oftheproduct. For businesses looking to gain a competitive edge by reducing their time-to-market, additive manufacturing is a powerful catalyst. Businesses can gain a competitive edge in the market through uninterrupted production, from designing to manufacturing and post-production.

Simple Outsourcing

3D printing is a hassle-free choice for businesses looking for dependable manufacturing outsourcing techniques. Companies can scale their production without incurring internal costs, whether it's a 3D printed prototype or a full inventory. The only steps required by engineers are to create 3D CAD files, choose materials and sizes, and have them manufactured by expert 3D printing companies. Higher personalization and on-demand manufacturing are becoming more and more popular, which has led to lower prices for 3D printing services.

Decreased errors later on in the production phase

Fast iterations combined with accuracy, tolerance, and repeatability are features of 3D printing. People can experiment and test out new ideas because of this. Designers and engineers can take significant risks with 3D printing without incurring significant costs or delays. Costs associated with manufacturing, shipping, and even research and development have all decreased thanks to 3D printing.

Instead of designing for manufacturing, we can now manufacture for design. Engineers and designers now have more freedom to experiment and explore novel concepts without the time and financial risks of the past. This capacity for experimentation, testing, and improvement resultsinbetter productsintheend and significantly lower costsanderrorslater intheproduction phase.

Due to rising demand and accessibility, this $12.6 billion industry will prosper going forward. More small businesses will adopt this technology to change their product manufacturing in the coming years. Additionally, the introduction of effective Industry 4.0 implementations will enable 3d printing to significantly alter how conventional product development is done.

3D printing has applications across all industries. owing to its use as a manufacturing aid, flexibility in design, quick turnaround, affordable customization, and affordability. The validity of 3D printing has already been established, without a doubt. It is now unquestionably a step in the creation of a product. Product designers must utilise it right away. There is no justification whatsoever for not making the most of this technology.

Other areas of impact are-

 3D Printing in Automotive Industry

 3D Printing in Aerospace and Defense (A&D)

 3D Printing in Supply Chain

 3D Printing in Consumer Goods

 3D Printing in Medical and Healthcare

Certain examples of 3D printing used in small scale business are-

The Original Prusa MINI

TheOriginalPrusa MINI is generallythe best option for small businesses operating from homes. Its build area is about 355 square inches, taking up less than 2 square feet of valuable desktop space. You can easily use it with a variety of filament types, and its layer resolution ranges from 50 to 200 microns. Calibration can be difficult, but considering the $350 cost, it might be worthwhile to deal with this problem.

Ultimaker S3

Your best option for printing larger objects is the Ultimaker S3. It works with a variety of materials and has a layer resolution range of 20 to 600 microns. With a build area of about 530 square inches, it isalso fairlysmall for a largeobject printer. However, it is notorious for printing slowly, and its $4,080 cost is quite high.

Anycubic Vyper

The Anycubic Vyper might better suit your needs and budget if you need to print large objects but can't afford Ultimaker's models. For $680,you'llget alayer resolutionofat least 100 microns. A built-in accessory drawer and 950 square inches of additional build space are also included. However, some reviewers have pointed out that the Vyper has uneven build quality and causes excessive initial stringing.

In today's fast-paced business world, decision-making is a crucial aspect that can determine the success or failure of any organization. However, when it comes to taking risks, many businesses tend to be cautious and avoid making decisions that could potentially lead to losses. While this may seem like a sensible approach, it can also hamper the production and growth ofthecompany. In fact,taking calculated risksand stepping out ofyour comfort zonecan often lead to significant rewards, both in terms of financialgains and overall progress. In this article, we will explore the impact of risk aversion on business production and why it's essential to strike a balance between caution and calculated risks to achieve optimum results. So, if you’re ready to take a closer look at the decision of risks and how it can impact your business, let’s dive in!

Understanding the types of risks in production

Before we delve into the impact of risks on production, it's essential to understand the various types of risks that businesses may face in their production processes. The most common types ofrisks inproduction include market risk, operationalrisk, financialrisk, and reputationalrisk. Market risks refer to the potential losses that may arise due to changes in market conditions. Operational risks stem from internal factors such as system failures, human error, and supply chain disruptions. Financial risks concern the financial health of the organization, such as liquidity risk, credit risk, and interest rate risk. Reputational risk is the potential damage to a company's reputation due to negative publicity, customer complaints, or unethical practices. Each type of risk requires a different approach to risk management, and businesses must identify and assess the risks they face to develop an effective risk management strategy that is tailored to their unique circumstances. Failure to do so can result in significant losses and damage tothe company's reputation. Therefore, businesses must prioritize risk management as an integral part of their production processes to ensure long-term sustainability and growth.

Impact of risks on production

The impact of risks on production can be significant, and failure to manage risks effectively can lead to reduced productivity, increased costs, and decreased profitability. For instance, market risks such as changes in consumer preferences or economic conditions can lead to decreased demand for the company's products or services, resulting in reduced revenue and profits. Operational risks such as system downtime or supply chain disruptions can cause delays in production and delivery, leading to dissatisfied customers and lost sales. Financial risks such as highdebt levels or interest rate fluctuations can increasethe company's borrowing costs and reduce profitability. Reputational risks such as negative publicity or customer complaints can damage the company's brand image and lead to a loss of customer trust. The impact of risks on production can be mitigated through effective risk management strategies that seek to identify, assess, and manage risks in a proactive manner. By doing so, businesses can minimize the impact of risks and maintain their productivity and profitability in the long run.

The decision-making process in risk management

Effective risk management requires a robust decision-making process that involves identifying, assessing, and managing risks in aproactive manner. Thedecision-making process should be based on a thorough understanding of the risks faced by the organization and the potential impact of these risks on the company’s production processes and overall business objectives.

The decision-making process in risk management typically involves the following steps:

 Identification of risks: This involves identifying the various types of risks that the company may face in its production processes. This step requires a thorough understanding of the company’s operations and the potentialrisks associated with each process.

 Assessment of risks: Once the risks have been identified, the next step is to assess the likelihood and potential impact of each risk on the company’s production processes and overall business objectives. This step involves analyzing historical data, market trends, and other relevant information to determine the level of risk posed byeach risk.

 Development of risk management strategies: Based on the results of the risk assessment, the company can develop risk management strategies that seek to mitigate the impact of risks on its production processes and overall business objectives. These strategies may include risk transfer, risk avoidance, risk reduction, and risk acceptance.

 Implementation of risk management strategies: Once the risk management strategies have been developed, the company can implement them in its production processes. This step involves monitoring the implementation of risk management strategies and making adjustments as needed.

 Reviewand evaluation ofrisk management strategies: The finalstep inthedecisionmaking process is to review and evaluate the effectiveness of the risk management strategies implemented bythe company. This step involves analyzing the results ofrisk management strategies and making changes as needed to improve their effectiveness.

The role of cost-benefit analysis in risk management

Cost-benefit analysis is an essential tool in risk management that helps businesses identify the costs and benefits ofdifferent risk management strategies. This analysis involves weighing the costs of implementing a particular risk management strategy against the potential benefits that could be realized if the strategy is successful. Cost-benefit analysis can help businesses make informed decisions about which risk management strategies to implement, based on their potential impact on the company’s production processes and overall business objectives. For example, a company may decide to invest in new technology to mitigate the risk of system downtime. The cost of implementing the new technology may be high, but the potential benefits in terms of increased productivity and reduced downtime may outweigh the costs in the long run.

Strategies for mitigating risks in production

There are several strategies that businesses can use to mitigate risks in their production processes. These strategies include:

Risk transfer: This involves transferring the risk to another party, such as an insurance company or a supplier.

Risk avoidance: This involves avoiding activities that carry a high level of risk, such as investing in new markets without proper research.

Risk reduction: This involves implementing measures to reduce the likelihood or impact of a particular risk, such as implementing backup systems to reduce the risk of system downtime. Risk acceptance: This involves accepting the risk and its potential impact, such as accepting the risk of reputational damage due to negative publicity.

Each strategy has its pros and cons, and businesses must evaluate the potential impact of each strategy on their production processes and overall business objectives before deciding which strategy to implement.

The importance of contingency planning in risk management Contingency planning is an essential component of risk management that involves developing a plan of action to be taken in the event of a risk event occurring. This plan should outline the stepsto be takento mitigatethe impact ofthe risk event on the company's productionprocesses and overall business objectives.

Contingency planning can help businesses respond quickly and effectively to risk events, minimizing the impact on their operations and ensuring business continuity. For example, a company maydevelop a contingency plan for supply chain disruptions that outlines alternative suppliers and delivery routes in the event of a disruption in the primary supply chain.

The role of technology in risk management

Technology plays a crucial role in risk management by providing businesses with tools and resources to identify, assess, and manage risks in a proactive manner. For example, data analytics tools can help businesses analyze historical data and market trends to identify potential risks and develop risk management strategies. Automation tools can help businesses streamline their risk management processes, reducing the risk of human error and increasing efficiency.

The use of technology in risk management can help businesses stay ahead of emerging risks and respond quickly and effectively to risk events, minimizing their impact on the company's production processes and overall business objectives.

Case studies of successful risk management in production

Several companies have implemented successful risk management strategies in their production processes, resulting in increased productivity, profitability, and overall business success. For example, Toyota has implemented a risk management approach that focuses on identifying and addressing potential risks in its supply chain. This approach has helped Toyota minimize the impact of supply chain disruptions and maintain business continuity.

Another example is the risk management approach adopted byBritish Airways, which focuses on identifying and addressing potentialrisks in itsoperations. This approach has helped British Airways reduce the risk of operational disruptions and maintain high levels of customer satisfaction.

Conclusion: The importance of effective risk management in production

In conclusion, effective risk management is essential for businesses to maintain their productivity, profitability, and overall business success. Businesses must strike a balance between caution and calculated risks to achieve optimum results, identifying, assessing, and managing risks in a proactive manner. By implementing effective risk management strategies, businesses can mitigate the impact of risks on their production processes and overall business objectives, ensuring long-term sustainability and growth.

About Us

The word “Kaizen”, where “Kai” = change, “Zen” = good, signifies change for the better. In its birthplace Japan, the word Kaizen is imbibed as a process that many small continuous changes in systems and policies bring effective results than few major changes. This methodologyapplies to every department across different sectors.

Kaizen–TheOfficialOperationsClubofIBSHyderabad hasalwaysbeenaspiring “Constant Change ad Evolvement”. We, as an organization work to inspire and aspire to the student community for the betterment of the future.

KORE – Kaizen’s Operations and Research Entity, one of our primary wings provide the students with a platform to improve and hone their technical competencies to meet the changing demands of the organizations. KORE’s sphere of influence includes Case-Based Research, Consultancy, Live Projects, and Workshops. LAKSHYA, aninitiative ofKORE focuseson improving thereader'sknowledge about Operations Management by providing insights in the form of articles on various operation techniques followed by different companies and also updating the emerging trends in the communities.

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Club Kaizen – IBS Hyderabad

Batch 2022-24

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