Resilient NL // Politics by Koen Schaballie

Resilient NL

POLITICS 1

Table of Contents Resilient NL: Politics 1. Research.........................................................6-35 Essay Resilient Strategies Political Risk Map Main Political Risks

2. The Game...................................................36-123 First Shock Panopticon Prison Resort Open Jail Second Shock Open market A lways water Give it back Third Shock N L Deluxe Mailbox-country Foster your micro 3. Advice.......................................................124-131

June 2013, Delft

LAURA COMA & KOEN SCHABALLIE

Resilient NL

POLITICS

Preface Resilient NL was a research by design studio in collaboration with TU Delft, MVRDV and the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment that tested unpredictable changes in different vectors of society and their effect on spatial planning. How can the Netherlands become more resilient in order to absorb radical changes without losing its essential elements and identity? Twelve teams of two students covered different vectors of society: economics, demography, resources etc. The following publication, is the result of the team concerning 'politics'. In a first phase (the Research), the study addressed and depicted fictional -yet realistically possible- future ‘shock’ scenarios following existing prognosis, extrapolation of current trends and the impact of possible ‘black swans’. The aim was to find the vulnerable and the crucial characteristics of each domain. The conclusion of the research done for each of the vectors consisted of a list of the possible risks, a risk map of the Netherlands and a series of newspaper headlines. The goal was to map not only shocks that people are generally aware of (such as floods) but also the latent risks in society (such as rejuvenation). In the second phase of the study (the Game), a vulnerable location for each of the vectors was chosen based on the risk map of the Research, and a scenario of subsequent shocks was constructed. For 4

each shock, three spatial strategies were designed, working on four different scales: 10x10 km plan, 1x1 km axonometric, 100x100 m section and 10x10 m street view. Well-known resilient strategies were applied and contextualized (e.g. redundancy, clustering etc.) or new ones were developed. Subsequently, the most successful strategy of the three was selected, and its capacity and applicability was tested by the introduction of the next shock. Following this methodology, a toolbox of spatial resilient strategies was assembled, covering a wide range of possible risks. In the end, the different teams obtained a resilient location for disturbances originating from their vector. Applying all the strategies together would make up a resilient Netherlands. The third and final phase consisted of a reflection of the Game and the Research, summarized in an advice to the Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment (Advice). We would like to thank European studies expert Adriaan Schout and disaster simulator Stefan De Krom for their interviews. Also we would like to thank our tutors for guiding and supporting us throughout the whole studio. They have set an example of excellence as researchers, instructors, and role models. Winy Maas, Felix Madrozo, Jeroen Zuidgeest, Bas Kalmeijer and Mark van den Oude.

"When resilient systems fail, they fail gracefully â&#x20AC;&#x201C; they apply strategies for avoiding dangerous circumstances, detecting intrusions, minimizing and isolating component damage, diversifying the resources they consume, operating in a reduced state if necessary, and selforganizing to heal in the wake of a breach." Zolli A., Resilience: Why things bounce back, New York, 2012.

Rese

arch

Essay

R E S I L I E N T P O L I T I C S

Is the Netherlands resilient on a political level? What are the possible shocks that can affect the system, and which shocks can it provoke itself? How capable is the political system to limit the damage? Will it bounce back to a desirable state?

This essay aims to clarify the most vulnerable flanks in the coming future by exposing the current picture of the Dutch political network. In order to cover the wide political field, the article has defined four different sectors from where a political disturbance can occur: the hierarchical structure of the Netherlands, its influential actors, its territory and its foreign relations. In what follows, each sector is elaborated.

Hierarchical Structure What would be the ideal political structure in terms of resilience? The Netherlands is hierarchically organized in three levels: federal, provincial and municipal (see figure 1). The municipalities pay taxes to the government as they redistribute the wealth over the country. It is a decentralised system where the municipalities can operate highly autonomously. The decentralised system is a resilient structure: if one municipality fails, it is supported by the others. Another resilient feature of this system is its modularity: the different parts can be separated and recombined to form new entities when needed. The province is an example of such an entity that can

emerge and act on a different scale. However, the decentralised system has also disadvantages. Summed up, the country has four types of borders and elections which makes it very complex (see figure 1). It asks for many officials to control and it is expensive. In addition, there is the danger that a federal strategy loses importance. According to Adriaan Schout, head of European Studies in the Clingendael Institute, there are too many levels inside the countries of the EU. A hierarchical structure is vulnerable because of its dependencies on the different levels: if a higher level falls out, the lower levels are helpless because they rely on the feedback of the higher level. Schout argues that specially the PIIGGScountries should cut in layers. For the Netherlands, he states that the level of

provinces should be removed. Simplifying the hierarchical structure and converting it to a network makes a country more resilient. If we zoom out to the level of the European Union, one could propose that the EU could be developed as a network of municipalities as well. The country borders are weak spots in this network and maybe the concept of country should be blurred. On the contrary, Schout attaches much importance to the level of countries and he believes it will remain always like this. Standard setting, language, education and even national defense will always be solved nationally. In case of emergency, hierarchy can be used to detect the problem on a small scale and solve it locally, or when

Fig.1: Hierarchy in the Netherlands

Figure 1 shows the different levels of hierarchy in the Netherlands. In the federal level there is the executive power of the government, consisting of the Queen and the ministers, the legislative power is given by the First and Second Chamber and the judicial power consists of the judges. The next level in the hierarchy are the 12 provinces, with for each a small parliament and a Kingâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Commissioner. The smallest fractions are the 408 municipalities with the mayors in charge. As a result of the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s history with water management, there is another division in Water Boards. These borders are historically grown and therefore sometimes strange, e.g. Amsterdam is part of three Water Boards.

Federal Waterboards

Chairman Safety Region

Provinces Municipalities

necessary scale up in the hierarchy and solve it on a bigger scale. Modularity is used to connect multiple municipalities, the ammount depending on the scale of the emergency. This is the principal of the emergency plan of the Netherlands, the GRIP (Gecoรถrdineerde Regionale Incidentbestrijdings Procedure, figure 2). It organises the military force, the medical assistance, the police and the fire stations in case of emergency. A fifth type of division of the country is implemented: Safety Regions. The smallest scale in the GRIP is the municipality with the mayor in charge, the next level is the Safety Region with the mayor of the biggest municipality in charge and afterwards

Scaling Up

GRIP 1 Mayor

...

GRIP 4

National Crisis

Chairman Safety

Minister of Security

Region

& Justice

Fig.2: Gecoรถrdeerde Regionale Incidentbestrijdings Procedure

it becomes a national crisis with the minister of Security and Justice in charge. To check if the reality fits the theory, the National Inspection of Public Order and Safety (Inspectie OOV) made a report on the implementation of the GRIP (Rampenbestrijding op Orde, 2010). The different levels of hierarchy were examined with simulations and tests. The report concludes with a mark on six domains for every safety region: information management, risk profile,

Groningen

Noord-Holland Noord Drenthe

risk profile information managment

training and exercise

scaling up

Zaanstreek Waterland Ijsselland

organisation Haaglanden

alarming

Gelderland- Midden

Zeeland

Noord-Limburg

Zuid-Limburg

Fig. 3: Inspection on GR I P

training and exercises, organisation, alarming and scaling up (figure 3). In general, the northern regions receive a lower mark with Ijsselland the lowest. An escalated party in Haren in 2012, region Groningen, was an illustration of the failure of the GRIP-system in the North. What was planned to be an innocent garden birthday party, was widely spread over the internet so that it grew out to be a riot with over 250.000 euro damage. Jan Brouwer, professor at the University of Groningen, specialized in public order and safety, argues that there was an error in the scaling mechanism. “The chairman of the Safety Region left the job for the mayor while the mayor left the job for the police commissioner, who underestimated the scale of the event.” Although the Netherlands has drawn out an appealing emergency strategy, it can easily fail when it has to be applied.

Actors in Power So who is in charge in the Netherlands? Obviously the politicians that got elected are powerful, but are there other latent authorities?. Is it the current spread of power a resilient one? 1. Monarchy The Dutch Monarchy started in 1815 and nowadays 75% of the Dutch people are enthusiastically attached to their Queen. She plays a neutral role in the political network and therefore has been really helpful in recent periods of history, solving problems in the formation of new governments. However, the role of the Queen and the status as a Kingdom, are under discussion these days, mostly

because her role is now almost merely ceremonial. In this way she has “royal immunity” by law, which means that the Prime Minister takes full responsibility for her actions. This fact together with the high budget that the Monarchy costs per year makes this institution being criticized more and more. It is said that the Royal expenditure is a good investment, because the Queen brings billions in for Dutch industries thanks to the royal visits abroad. However, there is only speculations and vague information about the Royal finances; nobody can check the balance sheet, there is no transparency. Furthermore, there are many scandals in the air related to the Orange family and the Queen itself, despite the her propaganda machine, RVD (National Information Service) who keeps all information under wraps and has negotiated a “code of conduct” for all journalist restricting all related photography and information. It is evident that here there is a place for unexpected scenarios, and even more right now when Queen Beatrix has dismissed her position for her son, Prince Willem-Alexander, who is considered not as capable as his mother. What would happen if Netherlands became a Republic? Monarchy means a strong point or a weak one? 2. Political parties Since the foundation of the parliamentary democracy in 1848, three main parties were in power: left-wing hand (PvdA), Christian party (CDA, a coalition between the Catholics and Protestants) and right-wing party (VVD) (see figure 4). The Dutch government remained 11

Right

Central

Left

VVD “People’s Party for Freedom an Democracy”

D66 “Democrats ‘66”.

PvdA “Labour Party” PROGRESSIVE

CU “Christen Union” CONSERVATIVE NON EUROPEIST SGP “State Reformed Party” CONSERVATIVE

LIBERAL PvdD “Party for the Animals” ANIMALIST

SP - (CPH-CPN) NON EUROPEIST

PVV“Party for the Freedom” ANTI-IMIGRATION NON EUROPEIST CDA“Christen Democratic Call” LIBERAL

50Plus OLD PEOPLE CARE

GL “Green Left” ECOLOGISTS

evolution of parties evolution of euroscepticism prognose for rising euroscepticism

Num. of seats in the parliament

50 45 40

CONSTITUTIONAL MONARCH 1rst parliament 1848

WW II

NEW IMPERIALISM Second Industrial Revolution

allarged parliament from 100 to 150 seats.

VVD =minority party (they got only 8 seats.)

INDEPENDENCE OF LUXEMBURG 1890

Fig. 4: Evolution of the Dutch Parties

INDEPENDENCE OF BELGIUM 1830

UNITED KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS 1815

prognose for decreasing euroscepticism

WW I

William I

30 25 20 15 10 5

1815

1840 1870

1880

1885

1890

1895

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

The timeline runs from 1840 when first Dutch

scoring just 6 in 1946. Precedent for current minority

parliament

parties to expect an increase of seats in teh parliament.

was

constituted

till

2013

and

continuing with a prognoses of two different

2. Unusual stability of SGP, the oldest political party.

scenarios, depending on Europe’s prospect using

3. During 1970’s most of christian parties merged in a very

% of eurosceptic behavior.

powerful one, CDA despite the strong traditional disputes.

decline

euroscepticism

would

mean

Precedent for unexpected further coalitions.

prosperous European future, increase would mean

4. Sharp decline of CDA in recent elctions. It is the most

the fail of EU.)

enthusiastic defender of EU policies. 5. Populist extrem parties as SP and PVV draw a parallel

onclusions from the timeline

graphic with Euroscepticism one. Economical crisis and

1. WWII affected dramatically all parties except

immigration affect basically traditional parties.

SGP. Specifically VVD got a sharp decline of seats

Murdered of Pim Fortuyn

Murdered of Theo van Gogh

ALLIANCE OF CHRISTIANS. 70’S

Rise of populist parties

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

generally stable over time thanks to this triangular game, where traditionally Dutch voters have been very loyal to their political parties. On the other hand, the Dutch parliament has also been characterized by its diversity. Because of the low electoral threshold (0,67 per cent), new parties can easily enter the Dutch party system. Parties always have to take agreements and form coalition governments in order to get majority. This sometimes causes difficulties but generally it is seen as a symbol of strong democratic representation, what could mean a more resilient system. Over time, the Dutch electoral behavior

has proven to be a reliable gauge of broader European political trends. Therefore, the historical analysis of voting behavior (figure 4) is also useful on a European level to to analyse current trends or possible comparison with former events. 3. Lobbyists Main decisions are often not taken inside the Chambers or in the main office of the Cabinet. Usually corridors or bars offer the kind of discretion and intimacy that delicate issues demand. Who are the key characters to contact? Who pushes the most? These groups of pressure usually come from private hands and

JEWISH LOBBY_AMSTERDAM 44% Dutch Jewish live in Amsterdam

Pim Fortuyn, Amsterdam, 2002

MUSLIM COMMUNITIES

Most of them in Randstad area. 20% of Amsterdam population

EXTREME RIGHT PARTY

PVV and Geert Wilders potential risk

DUTCH BIBLE BELT

Rise of Extrem conservative christian parties as SGP and CU

Fig.5: Risks radicalisation

care about large companies’ interests. Specifically to the Netherlands there are even companies that are specialized in the act of lobbying itself e.g. Meines & Partners. On their website, potential clients are attracted with the slogan: “Do existing laws hinder the smooth running of your business or organization? Perhaps impending new regulations threaten your operations. If you need to respond to the threat of such potential hindrances with any urgency, Meines & Partners have the in-house expertise you need to influence developments.” In the list of the main lobbyists in the Netherlands there are representatives from different sectors as: employers, industry, trade unions, mass media, infrastructures, etc. The most relevant lobby is the industry sector, which is said to be headed by Jeroen van der Veer. He was CEO of the Royal Dutch Shell and still has important positions in other Dutch companies as Philips and ING Bank. Pressures from the industry sector could mean a change in the environmental policy or could contribute to create monopolies. A monopoly is always a signal of bad resilience because it means no choice, and therefore no freedom. Another relevant lobbying sector consists of the Trade Unions. As the president of the most prominent Trade Union, the Vakbeweging, Ton Heerts can influence a lot of actors. He is a strong opponent of raising the working age limit (Algemene Ouderdomswet) what could mean a stagnation in terms of demography and labor market.

Furthermore, the lobby from media sector plays a crucial role. Public opinion is a strong but malleable tool. Mass media has a huge influence on changing public behaviors and to have good friendship with, for instance, John de Mol is essential to have a direct and powerful way to sell your own interests. Having done an overview of the main open lobbyists, it would be interesting to point out another influential group . To introduce the Jews as a lobby in Netherlands might be seen as controversial, but one confirm its existence when considering the different approach of the Netherlands specially concerning Israel. The Dutch Jewish community currently concerns 0,2% of the Dutch population, and 44% of them live in Amsterdam (between 41.000 to 45.000 people). Their pressures conditioned the government to take a controversial bilateral agreement with Israel, that affects international diplomacy (see later: Foreign Affairs). Other evidences of pro-Israeli lobby is Rosenthal’s decision to cease founding ICCO, a Dutch antipoverty organization, to be a supporter of Electronic Intifada movement, while the same government kept on founding some other pro-Israeli army foundations, as Sar-El Foundation. 4. Populism and Radicalisation. With the financial crisis hitting Europe, it becomes a fertile ground for extremism, both in political and social fields. It is crucial to investigate potential threats that could draw unexpected scenarios. The issue of immigration and integration of foreigners have constituted the most prominent and controversial field of 15

political contention of Western European policies since the early 1990â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s. At the same time anti-immigrant parties experienced a dramatic growth in electoral support in several European countries.

is under public debate. In 2010 Dutch elections, PVV (Party for Freedom) saw an alarming increase becoming the third force in the parliament even before the traditional CDA.

The far-Right populists play a crucial role in this scenario because they usually have the ability to play the â&#x20AC;&#x153;winning formulaâ&#x20AC;? to assemble a significant amount of voters. The success of this kind of parties is often due to a strong leadership, a popular face that can be easily recognized, and secondly because of their ability quickly shape and adjust their own ideals. This fact explains their appearance in time of troubles or unclear situation, where people are confused and the reliability of traditional parties

The PVV is characterized by its strong opposition towards immigration, especially Muslims. Their campaign induces racism and addresses other multiple controversial issues which makes them a weak point in the Dutch political system. PVV and his leader, Geert Wilders, are sometimes associated with the former LPF, the populist party headed by Pim Fortuyn, whose murder by a radical islamic group meant a decisive turning point in Dutch politics.

Fig.6: Faith in institutions, seen per political party

Fig.7: Dutch opinion on further European integration

On the opposite side there’s the warning growth of Muslim radicalization. A signal of this trend is the departure of hundred Dutch Muslims to fight in Syria next to the taliban warriors.

Fig.8: Ammount of parliamentary seats changed per year

5. Religions The Muslim community can be seen as an important actor in power. Dutch Muslims’ origins are really diverse, 70% being Turkish and Moroccans, 36% of which live in Randstad (see figure 5). Spreading of knowledge and integration are said as the best ways to solve segregation but it is evident that it is not an easy challenge. Latest surveys concerning Muslim population in Netherlands show that a high percentage of them consider the Netherlands as home. In this way, it is important to mention that despite this homely feeling they don’t consider themselves as completely Dutch, yet. More than 80% prefers to marry a partner

with the same ethnic background, which is an indicator of a bad integration. On the other side there is the Dutch native’s opinion towards Muslims and level of discrimination. The graphics show alarming numbers referring to level of faith in the coexistence. More than 50% of Native Dutch consider the relation irreconcilable. Another important phenomenon to point out is the so-called “Bible Belt”, not because they can be a threat, but because they could mean the evidence of a latent social discomfort. SGP and CU are rising considerably in a huge area of the

Fig. 9: Electoral volatility in Western countries since 1945

Netherlands, out of big cities. The target is well-educated people who escape from crime and stressful day life in crowded urban areas and look for a piece of peace in small communities in the countryside. New mega-churches are being built and also hardliner right-wing parties with strong orthodox positions referring to abortion, gender role or homosexuality are booming. Other signs of change are parties like 50plus (old-people party), PvdD (animalist) or GL (extreme left green), that could form completely unexpected coalitions neglecting the main traditional parties. 6. Europe As will be elaborated later, being member of EU is a resilient method to keep to competitiveness in a global world. It is relevant to know if the Dutch people rely on the European institutions to figure out possible scenarios. The Netherland is one of the core countries of the European Union what make it one of the referents for others newer countries. However, some surveys show an alarming rise of euroscepticism-behavior among the Dutch population. Nowadays, just 3 of the 12 parties in the parliament are completely pro-Europe and pro-Euro (see figure 6). Statistics of 2006 reveal that only voters in the 18-25 age-class are truly enthusiastic about Europe while a 55% of the population refuses further integration in Europe Union (see figure 7). This is a symptom of a lack of reliability in the European project

electoral volatility, a new trend that is alarming political science. Paul Nieuwenburg described this issue as the following: “the volatility is a reflection of the incoherence of the parties as they scramble for votes. Wilders has wrought havoc by understanding clarly that people are very disaffected with the traditional parties.” In his research paper, “Bounded volatility in the Dutch electoral battlefield: A panel study on the structure of changing vote intentions in the Netherlands”, Tom

Aruba

Curaçao

Zeeuws-Vlaanderen

Schelde-Estuarium

Baarle-Nassau

7. Volatility. The last topic in this chapter concerns 18

Fig.11: Riskmap territory of Europe

van der Meer tries to find out a possible pattern of this volatility. His team tested 54.763 respondents in 53 waves between 2006 and 2010 elections from which they defined three different types of changes in the structure of electoral competition: a form of dealignment, a form of ideological realignment or a simple continuation of a voter emancipation process. Besides the theoretical division, the study also concerns about contextual information that may interfere in the

structural processes. First, the economic crisis turned the focus of parliamentary discussions in a monothematic issue: economy. Secondly, tensions between PvdA and CDA that may have affected the electorate, and third but not less important, the already mentioned PVV, who presents himself unclearly; sharing part of left-wing ideas but attacking them vehemently. Finally the study concludes that Dutch electoral competition is structured by two

North Sea border

Eems-Dollard region

Russian Border

Friesland Aalborg

Russian Exclave

Cardiff

Luts'k

Ukranian Border

L'viv

Rivne

Ternopil

Chernivtsi

Botoşani Suceava

Lasi 3LDWUD 1HDPĠ

Vaslui

Bregenz Bacău

EU-border

Stiniu Gheorghe

Focşani Galaţi

Eastern Europe

Brăila

Tulcea

Buzău Ploieşti

Tirgoviste

Slobozia Constanja Călăraşi

Drobeta Turnu-Severin Craiova

Bucuresti (Bucharest) Slatina Giurgiu Alexandria

Limburg Andorra la Vella

ANDORRA

Turkish border

Ajaccio

Morocco border Vallelta

MALTA

ideological dimensions: a socio-economic and a socio-cultural one. Both blocks are clearly defined what shows that the higher level of volatility is between the centrists parties depending on election campaigns. The final conclusion was that there is no evidence of dealignmet and that the process of realignment doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t

provoke a crisis in Dutch party system. Voters are not drift-sand; they are emancipated.

Territory Another possible political shock, is a

Inclusion of Limburg in Netherlands 1839

Belgium Independency 1830

Congress of Vienna 1815

United Kingdom of the Netherlands 1815

Loss of South Africa 1806

French Empire 1804

Batavian Republic including Friesland 1795

Suriname Colony 1664

South Africa Colony 1652

Curacao and Dependencies Colony 1652

Guyana Colony 1616

2.5

Indonesia Colony 1603

Trade Collaboration VOC 1601

Territory [1.000.000 kmÂ˛]

3.5

Independency from Spain

Republic of the United Netherlands 1588

Fig. 10: Evolution of Dutch territory

1.5

0.5

INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

SECOND INDUS

DUTCH GOLDEN AGE

0 1590

1600

1610

1620

1630

1640

1650

1660

1670

1790

1800

1810

1820

1830

1840

1850

NETHERLANDS EUROPE WORLD

Dissolution of the Netherlands Antilles 2010

Ten new countries including Poland and Czech Republic enter the EU 2004

EU Foundation of the European Union 1993

Aruba separates from Netherlands Antilles 1986

First European elections 1979

Suriname Indecency 1975

Connection Antwerp-Rotterdam with Schelde-Rijn channel 1970

Treaty Eems-Dollard Region 1960 Eelten and Selfkant are returned to Germany 1963

Independency of the Netherlands Antilles 1954

Japan invades Netherlands East Indies 1942 Occupation of German regions as reparation for WWII damages 1949

Belgium demands Limburg and Zeeuws-Vlaanderen 1919 as compensation for Netherlands neutrality

End of Personal Union Luxembourg 1890

Loss of Ghana Colony 1872

Luxembourg Independency 1867

To answer these questions, it is helpful to look back in time as over history the borders of the Netherlands have

Formation of the European Economic Community 1957

changed dramatically. Figure 10 shows the evolution of the surface area of the Netherlands from the 16th century till now. The Republic of the United Netherlands was founded in 1589, when it was announced independent from Spain. Originally it consisted of Holland, Utrecht, Zeeland and Groningen, later

Independency of Indonesia 1949

modification of the country’s territory. How resilient is the Netherlands against such a shock? Is it likely to happen and which areas are more vulnerable?

Rovaniemi

Luleå

Oulu

Umeå

Östersund

Härnösand Mikkeli

Gävle

Helsinki

Turku

Falun Mariehamn Kohtla-Järve

Uppsala

Tallinn

Rakvere

Västeràs Paide

Rapla Karlstad

Haapsalu

Kärdla Örebro

Jógeva

ESTONIA

Stockholm

Pärnu

Tartu

Viljandi

Nyköping

Pôlva Volga

Kuressaare

Vòru

Linköpingen

LATVIA

Visby

Göteborg Jönköpingen

Rïga ZEMGALE

LATGALE

Aalborg Edinburgh

Jelgava

Växjö

Liepäja Kalmar

Daugavpils

Halmstad

Šiauliai

Viborg

Panevėžys Telšiai

Karlskrona

LITHUANIA

Klaipèda

Belfast

København (Copenhagen)

Vejle

Utena

Tauragé

Malmö

Kaunas

IRELAND

Vilnius

Marijampole Alytus

Dublin Gdańsk Kiel

UNITED KINGDOM

Olsztyn

Biafystok

Hamburg Bydgoszcz

Szczecin Bremen

Cardiff

POLAND

Poznañ

Warszawa (Warsaw)

London Kódz

Zielona Góra

Lublin Brugge

Antwerpen Gent

Bruxelles/Brussel

Leuven

Hasselt

Kielce

Wroclaw

Lille Wavre Liberec

Liège

Mans

Namur

Opole

Ústínad Laben Rzeszów

Katowic Amiens

Caen

Karlovy Vary

Pardubice

Arlon

Rouen

Praha (Prague)

Ostrava

Plzeñ

Paris

Krakáw

Hradec Králové

Olomouc

CZECH REPUBLIC Jihlava

Châlons-en-Champagne

Zilina

Metz

Zlin

Brno České Budějovice

Rennes

Prešov

SLOVAKIA Košice

Trenčín

MOLDOVA

Banská Bystrica

Botoşani

Strasbourg

Trnava

Orléans

Suceava

Nyíregyháza Satu Mare

Wien

Sankt Pölten

FRANCE

Nantes

Miskolc

Nitra

Bratislava Linz

Salgótarján

Chişinău

Baia Mare

Eger

Lasi

Debrecen Salzburg

AUSTRIA

Dijon

Bistriţa

Gyár

Eisenstadt

Budapest

Miercurea-Ciuc

Békéscsaba Alba Iulia

Kaposvár

Szeged

ROMANIA

Focşani Galaţi

Braşov Brăila

Deva

Tulcea

Buzău

Venezia

Ploieşti

RimNicu-Vilcea

Reşiţa

CROATIA

Trieste Milano

Stiniu Gheorghe

Arad

Szeksard Pécs

Ljuljana

Aosta

Vaslui

Târgu Mureş

Kecskemét Zalaegerszeg

Trento Lyon

Bacău

HUNGARY

Székesfehérvár

Graz

Klagenfurt

SLOVENIA

Clermont-Ferrand

Oradea

Szolnok Veszprém

Innsbruck

Bolzano

Limoges

3LDWUD 1HDPĠ

Zalău

Tatabánya Szombathely

Besançon

Poitiers

Bordeaux

Piteşti

Novi Sad

Slobozia

Tirgoviste

Tirgu Jiu

Constanja Torino Santiago de Compostela

WW II

Călăraşi

Zagreb Beograd (Belgrade)

Santander

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Genova Bologna Toulouse

Sarajevo

Vitoria

Razgrad Shumen

Lovech

Varna

Turgovishte

Sofiya (Sofia)

MONTENEGRO KOSOVO

Perugia

ANDORRA

Burgas Yambol

Stara Zagora Plovdiv Khaskovo

Pazardzhik

Skopje

Sliven

BULGARIA

Pernik Kyustendil

Pristina

Pogorica L'Aquila

SPAIN

Gabrovo

Ancona

Zaragoza

Guarda

Dobrich Ruse

Veliko Tarnovo Vralsa

ITALY

Valladolid

Viseu

Coimbra

Silistra Giurgiu Alexandria

Pleven Montana

Firenze Marseille

Vila Real Andorra la Vella

Aveiro

Slatina

Craiova

Vidin

SERBIA

Montpellier

Pamplona

Logroño

Bucuresti (Bucharest)

Drobeta Turnu-Severin

Oviedo

Bragança

Braga Porto

Blagoevgrad Smolyan Kŭrdzhali

Ajaccio

Leiria

MADRID

Castelo Branco

Barcelona

Roma (Rome)

Tirana

Santarém

Komotini

MACEDONIA

Campobasso Portalegre Toledo

Setúbal

Thessaloniki

Bari

ALBANIA

Napoli

Mérida

Kasani

Potenza

DECOLONISATION

Évora Valencia

Beja

Kerkyra

Mytilini

Larisa

Ioannina

Palma de Mallorca

GREECE

Cagliari Funchal

Larnia Faro

Sevilla Murcia Catanzaro

Athina (Athens) Patra

Palermo Tripoli

Ermoúpoli

Ponta Delgada

Ceuta (Spain)

Alborán (Spain)

LABOUR UNIONS

STRIAL REVOLUTION

Las Palmas de Gran Canaria

VIETNAM WAR Melilla (Spain)

Iraklio

Vallelta

MALTA

WW I

COLD WAR

NOW 1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

the Western part of Flanders joined together with more or less the rest of the current Netherlands (except Limburg and Brabant). As a result of the Dutch EastIndies Company (VOC), the Netherlands gained a vast amount of territory during the 17th century. In that time the Empire was spread over the world and it almost equalled the size of the current European Union. After the invasion of Napoleon and the fall of the VOC in the end of the 19th century, the Empire lost a big part of its territory. Belgium became independent in 1830 while it gave Limburg to Willem I as a compensation. A second important cut in the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s land was the invasion of the Japanese in the East-Indies during WW II, it lead to the independency of Indonesia later on. When in 1975 Suriname was declared independent as well, the last large overseas region was lost. At the moment the Dutch Empire consists of four independent countries: Aruba, St. Maarten, CuraĂ§ao and the Netherlands. The Queen remains the connecting instrument of these four. Furthermore, the Netherlands has three international municipalities, Saba, St. Eustatius and Bonnaire. One can trace many disputes between the Netherlands and its neighbouring countries in the past. In 1919, Belgium demanded Limburg and ZeeuwsVlaanderen to become Belgian territory as a compensation for the Dutch neutrality during World War I. The atmosphere was utter tensed and military-historian H. Bijkerk even proved that the army of the Netherlands was preparing plans to invade Belgium (Bijkerk, 1996). One of the reasons that Limburg was not lost back then, was because of the strong 22

nationalistic feeling of the citizens towards the Netherlands. Activating nationalism can be a resilient strategy against the loss of territory. Instead of giving up territory, the Netherlands agreed on making a channel between Antwerp and Rotterdam and paying for it. Although the treaty was signed in 1927, the Netherlands did not collaborate till 1970. A recent point of dispute, is the deepening of the Schelde-river, which connects Antwerp with the North Sea but runs through Dutch territory. Rotterdam is currently the biggest harbour in Europe while Antwerp is on the second place and depending on a Dutch river. While the Netherlands argued that it does not want to deepen the Schelde to protect the nature around the river, one can easily see the economical benefits of a statusquo for the country. Finally a treaty was achieved between the countries, which settled for a completion in 2010 (Verdrag Uitvoering van de Ontwikkelingsschets 2010 Schelde-estuarium, 2005). However the Netherlands did not even started in 2010 which provoked rage from the Belgian side. Finally the deepening is completed but the incident shows that disputes are still possible between the countries even though they have special treaties and collaboration plans on many domains. The border with Germany had some issues as well in the past. In the North where the Eems-river splits the Netherlands from Germany, there has always been disputes about the borders, even up till now. Both countries have different definitions of the border and despite many treaties it is not completely settled yet. In 2012, the Dutch government accused the new German

wind mill park to be located inside the Dutch territory. Other susceptible areas are Eelten en Selfkant, which were given to the Netherlands from Germany as compensation after WW II. These areas are now German territory again, as twenty years later they were returned to Germany. However, since the European Union the borders are losing importance and there is number of trade-agreements. An important aspect of the Dutch territory is the North Sea. Countries that border the North Sea all claim 22 km of territorial waters, within they have exclusive fishing rights. After the discovery of mineral resources in the North Sea, a second border principal was established in 1960, based on equidistance: the sea was divided by a mediating line between all countries (see figure 11). This worked out well for the Netherlands with the country having sovereignty over more than 57 000 km² of the North Sea, approximately one and a half times the surface area of the country’s land mass. This is an important advantage distinguishing it from the neighboring countries. In 1962, Germany dragged the Netherlands to the international court for a claim of its vast territory. Germany won and gained an over-sea connection to Great Britain (see figure 11). If one looks at the borders of the European Union, the EU gained several strategic positions over time (figure 11). Starting off as the European Economic Community in 1954 with Benelux, France, Italy and West-Germany, the number of countries have increased exponentially over time (figure 10). In terms of energy, the EU has gained a wide variety of choice: mineral

resources from the North, hydro-energy in the mountains of Europe, wind energy at the seas and solar energy in the South (Eneropa, AMO 2009). Also in terms of trade relations it is strategic: it has a connection with Israel and the MiddleEast via Cypress, a connection with the Black Sea via Romania; The EU clearly employs diversity as resilient feature. If some strategies fail, it can still rely on a variety of other strategies. According to Schout however, as a general rule, “enlargement always reduces resilience”. The wide range of choice is not compensated by the slow device that the EU now is. He believes that the EU is no longer able to hold its current size and he is certain of a reduction on the number of countries. Areas that could be lost include Portugal, Greece and Cypress. At the same time, new countries are emerging and this could provoke a shock as well. Already since 1989, Morocco is applying to join the EU. In fact, adding a cheap labor country could strengthen the position against China and South America.

Foreign Affairs Foreign affairs refers to agreements and international treaties signed to reach a safer and more prosperous country in a global world. The image that the Netherlands exports to the World and its reliability is important for its stability. 1. Economical relations The Dutch Foreign Affairs Policy is mainly focused on investments in economic diplomacy, including the need to 23

safeguard long-term supplies of energy, raw-materials and semi-manufactures goods. Specific bilateral relations with Brazil, US, Russia and China will be reinforced as well as with other emergent economies as Turkey and India. Political instability can potentially take place in these countries, and that can affect Dutch interest s in a global chain reaction, for example relating to energy supplies and raw materials. On the other hand, Netherlands is facing notable cutbacks in its budget, which affect Foreign Policies as well. ODA budget has been reduced from 0,8% of GNP in 2010 to an average budget of 0,7% in 2012, consequently the priorities must be well defined. The governmental budget reports show a high reduction on voluntary contributions and network missions, while development cooperation is going to decrease its cutback for 2015 as it is at the present time. 2. Israel As has been already introduced before , the Netherlands and his Jewish lobby is playing a suspicious role with Israeli affairs. Israel and the Netherlands have maintained close relations ever since the proclamation of the State of Israel with evident close ties in the successive Dutch governments. The Foreign Affairs Policy Agenda 2012 contained as one of the main goals to strengthen the relation, both political and economical, with the state of Israel, opening in this way a period of bilateral relations.

+ L NATO + UN

MILITAR MISSIONS Afghanistan (training in Kunduz) Mali (supporting France intervention) Somalia (fighting international piracy) NUCLEAR THREATS Iran + Nort Korea ISRAEL RELATIONS Consequences in Islamic countries and EU treaties.

mentioning an aid to the lasting solution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Under this kind and gentle appearance, the speech of the Minister provoked many complaints from different sectors in his visit to Israel, basically referring to the folowing phrases: â&#x20AC;&#x153;What you have achieved in this country commends respect. Today, Israel is a modern democracy founded on the rule of law. And it still is the only country in the region, so far, that can make this claim with truth.â&#x20AC;? - Speech by the Dutch Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation, Maxime Verhagen, on 14 June 2011 at the Technion in Haifa, Israel.

Minister Verhagen justified this bilateral agreement focusing on innovation and trade improvements as well as 24

Furthermore, Verhagen said that Dutch government would offer to share expertise

LOBBYING

ISLAMIC COUNTRIES North Africa Arabic countries AMERICAN FRIENDSHIP NATO, UN, ... Political dependance. POLITICAL INSTABILITY South America.(Anti- Americanism. Resources dependance, populism). China. Economical dependance Russia.

military missions bilateral trade chain reactions

INTERNATIONAL TRADE Brazil+China+Russia+EU. Dependance.

Fig.12: Riskmap Foreign Affairs

in respect to the newly-discovered gas field in the coast of Haifa and Gaza. This offer could potentially embroil the Netherlands in pillage to the Palestinian natural resources. Obviously this speech received many complaints from Palestinians supporters. Furthermore, the Quaker Council for European Affairs sent an open letter urging Dutch Government to cease all bilateral relations with Israel, because it runs contrary to the Dutch position on international law, as well as to EUâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s position, who clearly outline that Israel consistently flouts international law and human rights standards and that relations should not be upgraded until Israel demonstrates a sincere commitment to respecting international laws and human

rights. Furthermore The International Court of Justice in The Hague declared in 2004 that the wall built by Israel is illegal. This controversial decision could seriously affect the Dutch reputation in front of the World, as well as generate further unexpected consequences, as all concerning other opposite friendships. 3. Security Foreign Affairs Policy Agenda published for 2012 stated that an effective international cooperation is necessary for Dutch security, both domestic and external, and NATO will remain the cornerstone of the security policy. NATOâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Strategic Concept of November 2010 reaffirms the principle of collective 25

defense of allies by allies against both new threats and old ones. While it guarantees security, NATO also implies other transactions, sometimes obscure or completely opaque, as arms market, where US plays an important role being one of the main arms producer in the World. These parallel agreements involves a potential risk for unexpected scenarios because Netherlands, being a small “peaceful” country is not resilient enough to protect itself from a global attack. In this way, UN also offers a global platform for international discussions of the most important international challenges like the fight against the spread of weapons of massive destruction or the cyber crime. Besides of NATO and UN, EU cooperation is defined as crucial to respond transnational challenges. In order to defend collective threats, the Netherlands is an active ally contributing in international missions. Nowadays Dutch army participates in: a police training in Kunduz, Afganisthan, antipiracy operations, mainly in Somalia coast and recently providing air forces to the French mission in Mali. Collaborating so actively in international mission may have repercussions in national safety in terms of potential terrorist attacks. 4. Foreign Bribery Generally the Netherlands receives good reports in many issues compared with the global world. However it is important to point out some specific weak points that can potentially affect this good reputation. A recent OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) report states that 26

Netherlands is failing to pursue foreign bribery allegation and must step up its foreign bribery laws. 14 of 22 allegations that Netherlands has received haven’t been even investigated, calling into question Netherland’s ability and proactivity in prosecuting crime. Many Dutch companies are working abroad and reports like OECD ones put them under suspect.

Conclusion In this paper, we highlighted the different shocks that can occur to the political system of the Netherlands. We proved that there are four main domains where these disturbances can occur and we found in each domain the resilient strategies that can be applied to counter the shocks. On page 30 and 31, the different political vulnerabilities are mapped to form a “political risk map”, where shocks can be derived from. As seen in the paragraph of hierarchical structure, the regions with the worst emergency strategies are mapped. The different actors in power are mapped as well, including the Queen and the governmental institutions, the extreme right parties, Muslim communities and the Bible belt. From the territorial research, we highlighted the estuaries in the North and the South, Limburg, Zeeuws-Vlaanderen and Friesland, as vulnurable regions. Finally from the paragraph of Foreign Affairs, we pointed out bribery, the army bases and the Jewish lobby in Amsterdam.

We showed that there are already a number of resilient strategies apparent in the Netherlands, but that they can be improved or optimized. Firstly, the hierarchical structure of the country has to evolve towards a network consisting of modules. This modularity is already apparent in the context of municipalities, provinces and the EU. On one hand, decentralization improves the resilience while enlargement reduces it. Hierarchy was used for the NL Emergency Control system. By analyzing the current actors in power, a resilient characteristic in the Netherlands is the division of power and the diversity of opinions and parties. On the other hand there is

a wide range of powerful people, and each could provoke a shock. In terms of territory, the disappearing of borders as happening in the EU means an advantage because it generates a network with a high diversity inside. There are also two resilient strategies that are currently rather missing: simplicity to apply in for example the emergency strategy and self-sufficiency with for example the municipalities as units. In figure 13 and 14, the relation between the different vectors is explored.

Fig.13: Politics inf luencing other sectors “50Plus + PvdD government accomplish their campaigns” “Morocco and Turkey join EU.”

“NL 1rst in Al-Qaeda hit list”

Culture Safety

“EU blocks China imports .”

“Apple gets the monopoly of computer industry.”

Globalisation

Economy

Technology

“National Strike paralyses food industry for 2 weeks.”

Demography

Climate

POLITICS

Production

Politics

Resources

“GL closes all nuclear plants.”

Real estate

“NL votes in referendum for EU exit”

“Shell pressures the government to decrease the taxes on CO2 emissions.”

“Flanders joins the Netherlands.”

“No more subsidies for housing market”

Mobility

“Rutte introduces toll charges on highways.”

Resilient Strategies

Current strategies Decentralization:

A resilient feature of the Netherlands is that it is decentralized. The majority of the responsibilities goes to the municipalities.

Modularity: The Netherlands is subdivided in many different parts, which allows to rule the country on smaller scales. This modularity is apparent in the context of municipalities, provinces and the EU. The country has to evolve towards a network consisting of modules. A perfect modular system allows to be reconfigured on the fly when disruption strikes and protect the system from chain reactions. Diversity: The political system of the Netherlands has a wide variety of actors in power. The diversity of opinions and behaviors is essential to protect the democratic nature of the country. Furthermore the spread of different international friendship creates a more resilient network.

Swarming: The concept of swarming is to organize a system in different small modular elements that can work together and disbandd again. If one of the member disappears the collective can reorganize itself. Again the municipalities can be seen as the modules for this strategy.

Division of power: The main law that a democratic country must ensure. The power should be divided in: justice, legislative and executive. It ensures the basic resilience in the political system because allows the political power to be controlled by other hands and free ideas.

Potential strategies Simplicity: the current action plan contains to many hierarchies and protocols, it involves too many people and it can become the main risk: loose of control. Self-sufficiency: the current strategy of decentralization and modularity allows an independent management of each area but it still needs more freedom in case of general disaster. Every municipality should be able to autorule.

Political Risk Map EU

EU-exit or EU-expansion

Lobbying

Bribery â&#x201A;Ź

Institutions

Changing border

Strategic territory

Separation Risk

Army base

Religious Power

Muslim Community

Bad Emergency Strategy

Extreme Right Party

Low risk Medium risk

High risk

Main Political Risks

LOBBIED COUNTRY

EXTREME RIGHT PARTIES

TERRITORIAL DISPUTES

COMPLEXITY OF GOVERNMENTAL INSTITUTIONS

EMERGENCY STRATEGY FAIL

END OF TAX-FRIENDLY NL

ISRAEL RELATIONS

EUROPEAN UNION ALLIANCE

FALL OF THE WELFARE STATE

RADICALIZATION OF MUSLIM COMMUNITIES

BRIBERY

CHANGING BORDERS

Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “Organization structure”

Source

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the

Netherlands.

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html Meines & Partners. http://www.meinespartners.nl/ Schmeets, H. “Growing scepticism towards Europe” in

meinespartners-en/

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Sharia courts in Nerherlands”. Apr 23, 2010. http:// w w w.gover n ment .n l /doc u ments- a nd-pu bl ications/

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Political

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eu ropea n _ elec tion _ data base/cou ntr y/net herla nds/ FORUM. Institute for Multicultural Affairs. “Muslims

parties.html

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electoral battlefield: A panel study on the structure

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geodesy_and_tides/maritime_limits/north_sea

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maritime_claims.html

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h t t p: // w w w. o e c d . o r g /c o r r up t i o n /a n t i - b r i b e r y/

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nicantlystepupitsforeignbriberyenforcementsaysoecd. htm

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betrekkingen-met-nederland/belgie

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the

Promoting

Netherlands.

Stronger

“Innovation

Relations

Between

the Netherlands and Israel in a Changing Middle East”. June 14, 2011. http://www.rijksoverheid.nl/ documenten-en-publicaties/toespraken /2011/0 6/14 / i n nov at ion -n at ion s - promo t i ng - s t ronger-re l at ion s between-the -netherlands-and-israel-in-a- changingmiddle-east.html

the G

Game

THE GAME

Shock 1

"No money for prisons"

Cutbacks on public services

CRISIS of the WELFARE STATE European Debt Crisis Europe’s struggle to pay the debts it has built up in recent decades. Europe cannot hold it’s current level of welfare.

2015 NL: 18.000M euros CUTBACKS

Town Hall

Office distruct

Central Station

Location: Utrecht

road

rail

road

Utrecht Province: Geography Area Land: Water: Demography Population: Density: Forecast in 2025 Dutch Origin Morooccan heritage

Dom tower

Utrecht 99,32km2 95,35km2 3,97lm2 316.448 inh. 3186inh/km2 392.000 inh. 69% popul. 9% popul.

Utrecht, as city and municipality, is the capital and most populous city of the Dutch province of Utrecht. It is located in the eastern corner of the Randstad conurbation, and is the fourth largest city of the Netherlands. Utrecht is well-known for its University and Science Park, rated as the best of the country. Utrecht can be considered one of the wealthiest cities in Netherlands for its economical and industrial potential. However, as many other Dutch cities faces social problems, having 38% of its popultaions earning min. income and dependant on social welfare.

Shoc

ck#1

VOL. CLXVIII . . No. 68,559

ÂŠ 2030 NRC Handelsblad

ROTTERDAN, SUNDAY

MERKEL ANGRY Merkel emphasised that she does not agree with the plans concerning the road development of EU comissioner Wengen. By RICHARD PUGLIA

LOCATION - Fugiti alignihictem voluptatem aut moluptat. Mus pliqui dolore eum dolorro offi torem. Ovidus dollaborese plabo. Nam illis si dolorum et que sequati untium eos explant perspel iquuntium abo. Et inti inus dolles de commolu ptassit issimpe diciuris verchilit volendaes quis aut moluptae voloremos inis aciatiisque et voluptiant et fuga. Itatio. Ellor moluptatem laccus aut etumquam cuscit officto eum non consequatem comnisi dicieni hitatur ehendite re, offictotatem ipsam eaqui inihil ipsum escil eaquam, tem accum dignam asintis exped ut aute nostiume dellenihit, iunt ent peratur autae autentotas eium illenis destiat aspellor assit, conet faceris simposti ipsapicipit alis cum quatur sitas ma quate nim aut odis de voluptatum quae nus, tem ipit ulparuntur, eturepudae voloratur? Quiates ea deliqui dis pa vendi cus. Itas voloriam et etur assuntur rem sit et exerio. Et volore, que pedit eossum si bea nus autem facest utae sam fugitaquis doles eum laut inihit quos endis exero ipitasp icturem fuga. Ut eiustem verum faceate peratem poremporibus autatur, veles sim quianiet ullitin cidellu ptatia volloriatur aliquis nullupt atempor ibereperrum volupta tiaerib eatecte lamusam usciae. Liquatas ilic tem et de doloratem quateture, imi, si nonem doluptaeri sed eossuntur sitaquatent que Repudant iassequ assusantium si doluptatur solorroraes cum dolento voloris anis dolendam quas

NO PUBLIC MONE

Dutch Parliament has approved the c penitentiary system of 340M By KOEN SCHABALLIE and LAURA COMA

LOCATION - All around the country

The Ministry of Justice and Security prepares a plan to reorganize the Dutch penitenciary system, closing 30 penitenciary institutions and reducing 3700 jobs by 2018. â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;They are demolishing the pris-

on th ha ica th

Y, MAY 12, 2013

IMPORTING INMATES THE FINAL SOLUTION? Dutch Government is considering the option of importing inmates ina big scale, mainly within EU. By JOHN RUDOLPH and MICHAEL KITTS

LOCATION - Non pe labore nos quam vendia sum aut ad magnati oneceat iatiis non cum et utem es solorpos ma sam et arum exerferum fugiatemod quoditat magnate sunt ommo is dolor aut quae sa nonseque nihit idel maiorum que maximinvenis aligend andist, sinis solutem a versperia dolupiendi blatur aut hilluptae rati a excearum aceatur adipiet odigendicae. Nam re porporeicae serum reptame pratem quam est, in pro dolum re voluptio. Solore voluptia dolo tent magnis etur? Lorpos eum quidi aut andipicae dolupta id expliquae. Sunt mil modipis quiam comnis

EY FOR PRISONS

cutbacks on the M Euros

nsystem,â&#x20AC;&#x2122; says Bert Koops, chairman of e prison work council. Many sectors ave started to complain about this radal measure warning about the danger at it could imply for the society. The

economical crisis has hit the country and the current situation is not affordable anymore. Crime rates are generally decreasing in the Netherlands and nowadays there is just an 86% of occupancy what means a waste in the infrastructure investments. Areas like Zeeland, Groningen or Drenthe will become a penitentiary no-manâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s land. The amount of TBS hospitals will be reduced a 75% only remaining one of them.

dis re sequis volupta tisquidit alique quasit quam nesed qui alit, sed quiasim illacit ommolup tatioribus et ut qui deniae min essum am eictentibus exero voluptu ribus, veneces niatemquis am il endis aut atemporporro tessita dolorum dolupicatur, et ut eatur rent velitis et, omnis conseni magnam lamenis aliquod igenda ventem is vel ide si comnimpernam eaqui blamus, sume sum ellat fugia volupta testius utem voleceperum conse nos ditassequas a inversp ienihit faccus, suntem ut latur, odit et reperem pelesto dolore ape non perspel est, occusaepre magnihil eations ediscimos aliandae. Nem excea commo experum ium volorem et aut fuga. Giaecto tem ea aut eliquam ad eatibuscim ipsuntotatem quati consenet voluptaquia nis nis ra voluptio eos auta debit quat anis eium voluptae similluptati solupta nost acea iderfernam Um ut et dita denia pa simagni magnat volectur alignienda vel magnimu saperes re nobis iducili tentotatus, velless imusaped quiasperit molupta quas eos aspissit vent lam eribusam,Deliquatur, omnis sinto-

Research Shock#1

NOW!!

SHOCK!!

â&#x201A;Ź IC

1000M 20.000

BU ET

750M 15.000 AMOUNT OF

INMATES

500M

10.000 250M

5.000

2009

2013

2018

2023

2028

2025

Source: 46

http://www.telegraaf.nl/binnenland/21414360/__Overal_gevangenissen_dicht__.html http://www.exodus.nl/Feiten_en_cijfers_234.html http://www.dji.nl/Organisatie/Feiten-en-cijfers/index.aspx

Closing Prison Closing Psychiatric Prison Remaining Prison Remaining Psychiatric Prison New Future Prison

Research Shock#1 Prison

4% reserve cap 6% psychiatric center 3% low low security 4% low security

5,7%

types

4% extreme security

94,3%

high s

in 2011

security /justice

expenditure

budget

39.866 IN

12.595 places

180 â&#x201A;Ź per

40.589 OUT

per day

Source

http://www.hbvl.be/limburg/hasselt/1-gevange-per-cipier-in-hasselt-stakingsdagen-beperkt-tot-3-pe http://mens-en-samenleving.infonu.nl/diversen/39089-kosten-van-een-gevangenisstraf.html#kostenhttp://www.rijksbegroting.nl/2013/voorbereiding/begroting,kst173857_17.html (2012)

typologies

Reason of emprisonment weapon crime

pacity

road traffic crime destruction and public disorder sexual crime

40% temporary

opium law crime theft with violence

theft without violence

security

violence crime 0

TURN-OVER!! severity of justice system 30,1% RECIDIVISM

profits

(back in jail in 2 years)

er-jaar.aspx (2011) -van-een-gevangenisstraf (2009)

Importing prisoners 40 000 000 euro Labour profits 11 800 000 euro

Strategy overview Sh#1 Panopticon

Intensification Making the existing prisons more efficient by converting them into panopticons. Instead of 1 guard per 4 prisoners, one guard will watch 400 prisoners.

Prison

Cluster

A resort-company co draining village B self-sufficient priso agriculture and facto villa's of Barchem residence for the in are free to move (bet

ÂŤ No money for prisons Âť resort

ring

onverts the small archem into a on park with ories. The vacant m are used as nmates and they tween the walls).

Open jail

Modularity One-person-prison-modules are produced in a factory and spreaded all over the country. According to the level of the crime, the prisonner will receive a certain radius of moving. Each 1000 inhabitants will receive 1 prisoner. 51

Str. 1: Intensification

existing prison

floor green groun flo

tower watching towe

new cells

Existing typology 1 guard 4 prisoners

Panopticon NEW PANOPTICON 1 guard 400 prisoners

Str. 2: Clustering

Prison Resort

55 5 5

Str. 2: Clustering

Prison Resort

Str. 3: Modularity

Cell

Electron

sensor

Security and imm 60

sensor

cc tv

Open Jail

220x450cm

nic Bracelets

click

y by surveilling mobilizing

Monitoring Room 61

Str. 3: Modularity

Open Jail

63 63

Str. 3: Modularity

Open Jail

Str. 3: Modularity spatial implications -different radius depending on crime

types

-oversurveilled cities -different typologies

security /justice

expenditure

budget

39.866 IN

high s

40.589 OUT

investment on technology 180 â&#x201A;Ź per 50 â&#x201A;Ź per

per day

Source

http://www.hbvl.be/limburg/hasselt/1-gevange-per-cipier-in-hasselt-stakingsdagen-beperkt-tot-3-pe http://mens-en-samenleving.infonu.nl/diversen/39089-kosten-van-een-gevangenisstraf.html#kosten68 http://www.rijksbegroting.nl/2013/voorbereiding/begroting,kst173857_17.html (2012)

Open Jail

security cell

regular cell

cellcell apartmen apartment apartment

TURN OVER!! severity of justice system

-engagement of society -adaptable capacity

profits

turn over SEVERITY

er-jaar.aspx (2011) -van-een-gevangenisstraf (2009)

Importing prisoners 40 000 000 euro 100.000.000 euro

VIP (rich inmates) CHOSE AND PAY A LUXURIOUS UNIT 5.000.000 euro

PANOPTICON

PRISON RESORT

Shock 1

"No money for prisons"

OPEN JAIL

Shock 2

"water sold to Suez"

Cutbacks on public services

Public services bought by Multinationals

Chosen Strategy Modularity OPEN JAIL Least amount of personnel Cheap minimal infrastructure Cells can be manufactured and stored adapting to the need for prison-places

Shoc

ck#2

VOL. CLXVIII . . No. 68,559

ÂŠ 2030 NRC Handelsblad

AMSTERDAM, SUNDAY, J

GDF SUEZ FRANCE WILL BUY BIGGEST WATER PROVIDER Suez will buy the majority of the watermarket in Netherlands By RICHARD PUGLIA

NL WATER-INDUST

The parliament voted for the privatiza water supply system. The French com ronment seems to be the main c By KOEN SCHABALLIE and LAURA COMA

DEN HAAG- Fugiti alignihictem voluptatem aut moluptat. Mus pliqui dootatem

Itio. Nem is incimos magnien ihillacepre, con nest, odi undenestor ari corporp orroresti con repersp eribus nosae odio magnam, Sum estrum, officti berchil molupta tintur? Qui doluptatem explias vol-

Qu qu ve Fa qu

JANUARY 30, 2014

IPHONE 7 WILL CHANGE THE WORLD Tim Cook as revealed new features of the iPhone 7 which will be released by September By RUUD DEKLERCK

TRY PRIVATIZED

ation of drinking pany Suez Envicandidate.

ue del is invel et quiassin cuptae eseuas velit offic tes solupta errupti orrunt el maio. Dolupta temperem. Ut labo. acestVoluptur? Ut aboruntis atur mint uo veratem voluptatiis si ad quae aut

Que del is invel et quiassin cuptae esequas velit offic tes solupta errupti orrunt vel maio. Dolupta temperem. Ut labo. Facest Ignihil mo et lanimolest vent. Fugiaes ium fugit laccae voluptus rere conestia et mi, se laceri cone optatiam illupide pos nonsequ atectet volupid ignihil itatus magnis dusa nonemporum derum nullut volum harum quia vit quo quia volore proXercipis tiuscillabo. Icium enihita temporessim quam, nam, asit pla im quiantorepro volorrovit quas aut har-

Research Shock#2

privatization of railway infrastructure to NS

“The commitment to privatise government property is one of the main components of the restructuring plans imposed by the ‘troika’ of IMF, ECB and European Commission on euro-area countries when they avail themselves of aid from the euro rescue packages.” Deutsche Bank, December 2011 already privatised

POR

ESP

for sale or under discussion

90.000 total europe revenues dutch transactions

70.000 agen e agencification of PTT

60.000 50.000 40.000 “operation 2%”

Revenues (euros)

80.000

30.000 20.000

IRL

descentralisation of Labour negotiations for Civil Servants

partly privatised

www.tni.org/eucrisisinfographics Privatisation Barometer. The PB Report 2011. 76The privatisation debate on water services in the Netherlands. Stefan M. M. Kuks. 2004

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

Source

1979

10.000

2030

GRE

2020

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

dissapointing results for NS and postal service

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

Privatization Trend

Cardiff

semi-public agencies

163

Research Shock#2

Water Companies

Research Shock#2

PR OF

IT AB ABSTRACTION LESemi-Public Company DISCHARGE PRODUCTION Semi-Public Company TO NATURE Waterboards

SEWAGE TREATMENT Waterboards

DISTRIBUTION SEWAGE Municipality

Semi-Public Company

PR OF

IT AB

Source The privatisation debate on water services in the Netherlands. Stefan M. M. Kuks. 2004 Dutch Drinking Water Statistics 2008,2012_ The Water Cyrcle from source to tapâ&#x20AC;?.

The Water Cycle

SUEZ MONOPOLY CONSEQUENCES

1. Basic needs for everybody NOT ENSURED. 2. Less investment 3. Increase of bill prices 4. Less mantainance 5. Disconnection with costumers 6. Decrease of quality 7. Not care about externalities (e.g. environment) 8. Controlling difficulties

Strategy overview Sh#2 Always Water

Decoupling Because water is considered as a human right, the dependency on the private companies is minimized by providing a minimal back-up of drinking water by drilling boreholes. 82

Open M

Diver

By multiplicating infrastructure, diff are able to compe citizens of wate monopoly of the abolished.

ÂŤ Water privatized Âť

Market

rsity

g the water ferent companies ete to supply the er. The current water market is

Give it Back

Cycle The environmental consequences of the privatization of water are countered by demanding that the companies locally return an equal amount of water to the earth, to what they extract. 83

Str. 1: Decoupling

COMMUNITY BO

WATER CONSUM DATA Breakdown domestic water consume: Bath Shower Washbasin sh h Toilet flush g by hand Washing g by machine Washing 3 ng g up, by hand Whasing Washing g up by machine paration p Food preparation Drinking Other

2,5 49,8 5,3 37,1 1,7 15,5 3,8 3,0 1,7 1,8 5,3

Total

127,5

0,1275 m /person x day

1,63

1,24 (75,7%) 0,15 (9,4%) 0,24 (14,9%)

Total

1,63

per un ser

served by 1 borehole

Consumer price for h hous hou households: Cost waterr company Cost price iincreasing taxes VAT 3 Tap water ttax and€/m

11700€ 20m3/day

20m3/day 0,1275 3

m /person x day

156 people

11700 € 156 people

Source hhttp://www.geologicboreholes.co.uk/water-boreholes/water-borehole-drilling-installation/ Dutch Drinking Water Statistics 2008,2012_ The Water Cyrcle from source to tap”. http://www.hydrology.nl/images/docs/dutch/key/Groundwater_De_Vries.pdf/

€/pe

Always Water

OREHOLES

investment per borehole WITHOUT the need of PERMIT

nlimited rvice

erson

107.584 boreholes

repayment in 75€/person 0,2€/personxday

375 days

Str. 2: Diversity

Open Market

Str. 3: Cycle Allowing privatisation by regulations Obligation for Private Company

= Volume sewage treatment

Abstracted volume

Sewage treatment

Grey water

Clean

Source: 88

Medume projecten, Helofytenfilter. http://terraxy.weebly.com/rietfilter.html, 2012

Give it back

n water

ABSTRACTION SUEZ Environment

DISCHARGE TO NATURE

PRODUCTION SUEZ Environment

SUEZ Environment

SEWAGE TREATMENT SUEZ Environment

DISTRIBUTION SUEZ Environment

SEWAGE SUEZ Environment

Abstracted volume

Drinking water

2. 89

Str. 3: Cycle Close Loop

Str. 3: Cycle

Give it back

PANOPTICON

PRISON RESORT

Shock 1

"No money for prisons"

OPEN JAIL

Shock 2

"water sold to Suez"

Cutbacks on public services

Public services bou by Multinationals

Decoupling ALWAYS WATER A minimum amount of water should be always available, independent from a company

Cycle

OPEN MARKET

GIVE IT BACK High amount of money for the governement since the water is sold to one company.

ALWAYS WATER

The company is forced to guarantee the whole water cycle so a resilient water system is guaranteed.

GIVE IT BACK

Shock 3

"End of NL tax-haven"

ught

Chosen Strategy

Exodus of Multinationals 97

Shoc

ck#3

VOL. CLXVIII . . No. 68,559

ÂŠ 2030 NRC Handelsblad

ROTTERDAN, SUNDAY

OECD GOOD REPORT OECD Comissioner congrats EU for the new policy and encourage other countries.

By RICHARD PUGLIA

EU VOTES THE END O

EU Parliament adopted a resolution by w bers will share the same taxation policy. R expressed his fears concerning this By KOEN SCHABALLIE and LAURA COMA BRUSSELS - Yesterday EU Parliaments made a first decisive step toward a real Common Eu-

ropean Union, regulating a common taxation system for all EU members in order to fight against tax fraud and evasion. The resolution was adopted by a large majority, 538 votes in favour to 73 against. This resolution basically

aff wh on re Ch

Y, MAY 12, 2013

SWITZERLAND EXPECTS MASSIVE TRANSFERS The new EU law provokes a massive evasion of money to Swiss territory. By JOHN RUDOLPH and MICHAEL KITTS

OF NL TAX-HAVEN

hich all EU memRutte has already s measure.

ffects countries like Netherlands or Ireland ho voted mostly against because it is focused n abolish the so popular tax constructions garding royalties and mailbox companies. hristine Lagarde, head of IMF, as many other

International Institutions, has already declared her support to the resolution concluding that is a strong and firm step to fight against tax avoidance and international tax havens. There are some fears in the air among EU Members referring Foreign investments and the future of the European Welfare State, althought the majority agrees with the measures and show their enthusiasm towards a stronger EU.

Research Shock#3 Foreign Investment Index

Money =5

*thanks t

Source: ”Great Tax Race: Netherlands’ loopholes”, Financial Times, April 29th 2013 ”Figures shed light on tax avoidance”, Financial Times, April 28th 2013 102 ”Dublin cut tax burden on multinationals after US lobbying”, Financial Times, OECD International Investment Database, IMF, April 8th 2013

Multinationals with headquarters in NL: IKEA, Phillips, Nike, Starbucks, Shell, Multinationals with holdings in NL: Unilever, Google, Apple, BP, Glencore

2,9 TN $

y flow through NL 5 times its GDP*

to special purpose entities (SPE´s)

0,57 TN $

3,5 TN $

“Schluss damit!” May 21th 2013

103

Research Shock#3

NL’s sp

Offshore e.g. Netherlands Antilles

Tax haven Industrialized e.g. Netherlands

No tax on profit from Property

No tax on profit from Subsidiaries

alit eci y

HeadQuarters

Special tax treaties with 90 countries

What's in in it for NL?NL? What’s it for 2,2 BN $ direct revenue 70 % from taxation 30 % from managment costs equals 0,5 % of the total cash-flow (3505 BN $)

2500 direct

high-grade jobs for fin accountants and fiscal a 132 specialized tru

Source: Murphy R, Christensen J, Kimmis K, “Tax Us If You Can”, (London: The p. 67, <http://www.taxjustice.net/cms/upload/pdf/tuiyc_-_eng_-_web_fi Van Dijk M, “The Netherlands, a tax haven?”, 2006. ”Great Tax Race: Netherlands’ loopholes”, Financial Times, April 29th 2

“Any country or territory whose laws may be used to avoid or evade taxes which may be due in another country under that other country’s laws.”

1600

New Mailbox Companies (per year)

1400

600

Ammount

800

400

MailboxCompanies*

1979 1980 1981 1982 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

200

alit eci y

Name, Name

1000

NL’s sp

1200

* synonyms: special purpose entities (SPE´s), special financial institution (SFI´s)

t jobs

nancial experts, and legal advisors ust offices

Many more indirect jobs Tax consultants, law firms, accountants, banks ...

e Tax Justice Network, 2005), ile.pdf>.

2013

105

Startegy overview Sh#3 Mailbox-Country

106

NL De

Alliance

Dynamic Reor

Netherlands creates an independent enclave and makes an alliance with the new country. This way it can maintain its profits from the money transfer industry.

The money-transfer Netherlands is d organized so that clients: rich peop structure (trust-offic ...) is now being used

ÂŤ End of NL tax-haven Âť

eluxe

Foster your Micro

rganization

Decentralization

industry of the dynamically reit serves other ple. The infraces, accountants d differently.

Instead of a friendly taxation system which attracted big companies, Micro Enterprises are encouraged, by providing office spaces by householders and enhance their competitiveness by innovation in the science parks. 107

Str. 1: Alliance

Alliance

Foundation of an independent

New country, not part of the E

New country filled with mailbo

Mailbox-Country

DUTY FREE

Money-transfer industry is sav 108

Mailbox country

t enclave

EU NL

oxes

â&#x201A;Ź NL

ved 109

Str. 2: Dynamic Reorganization

Change of TARGET

1% 22 Ma Ma 50+ MA 40

MailboxCompanies*

Top Wealthy People

T R LE LU

G SP SO

Source: http://images.businessweek.com/ss/10/06/0615_global_millionaires/14.htm

NL Deluxe

ROFILE

% of the population (152,434people) % of country’s wealth ainly in Amsterdam and Utrecht ajority Native Dutch + years old ALE % TOTAL NL TAXES

NL num:13 World List

ADVANTAGES

Dynamic Reorganization

RUST SECTOR REAL ESTATE EISURE SECTOR UXURY PRODUCTS

+ employment + consume

PATIAL CONSEQUENCES

GATED RESORTS PORTIVE PORTS OCIAL LIFE

+ high inc.retail + infrastructures

111

Str. 3: Decentralization

99%

XXL

34,5% of Dutch Employment

~0,1% of Dutch Employment

of Dutch Companies number

1,4%

7,5%

micro

90,8%

employment

24,8% of Dutch Employment

21,6% of Dutch Employment

24,8% of Dutch Employment

Source: http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/sme/facts-figures-analysis/perfor http://www.tno.nl/content.cfm?context=overtno&content=persbericht&l http://investinutrecht.com/news/item/danone_puts_science_park_utrech http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_DE-PROD/PROD000

Foster your Micro Tax avoidance

~0% of Dutch Employment

range

<100

add value

22,7%

BENEFITS

Tax payers

Employees

<50

21,3%

Employees

Commited to the country

<10

19,2%

Employees

rmance-review/files/countries-sheets/2012/netherlands_en.pdf aag1=37&item_id=201206080021&Taal=2 ht_on_the_map/ 00000000271742/SMEs+in+the+Netherlands%3A+Making+a+difference.PDF

113

Str. 3: Decentralization

Enterpreneurship is encouraged by visualizing the OFFICES clearly in the streets

enterpreneur has an IDEA

114

Science Park Campus provides ADVISE+INFO R+D for social goals

Householders by FOSTERIN new way o

Foster your Micro

BE PART OF THE FUTURE!

s are involved NG new offices of FUNDING

HIGH COMPETITIVENESS

TAX PAYMENTS

115

Str. 3: Decentralization

116

Foster your Micro

117

PANOPTICON

PRISON RESORT

Shock 1

"No money for prisons"

OPEN JAIL

Shock 2

"water sold to Suez"

Cutbacks on public services

Public services bou by Multinationals

120

Decentralization FOSTER YOUR MICRO Micro's pay taxes Micro's bring innovation Micro's are attached to the Netherlands

OPEN MARKET

ALWAYS WATER

NL DELUXE

GIVE IT BACK MAILBOX-COUNTRY

FOSTER YOUR MICRO Shock 3

"End of NL tax-haven"

ught

Chosen Strategy

Exodus of Multinationals 121

built-in counter mechanism

dynamic reorganization

clustering

centralization

allaince

diversity

decentralization

modularity

SPATIAL STRATEGY REPRESENTATIO

CRISIS OF THE

Now New Now Continue:

PRISON RESORT

C CELL-UNIT

ALWAYS

OPEN M

GIVE IT NEW PANOPTICON

SHRINKAGE OF PUBLIC SERVICES “No money for prisons”

122

PRIVATISATION OF WATER MANAGEMENT “Suez environment buys Dutch Water Services”

swarming/flocking

simplicity

decoupling

feed-back loops

flexibility

equality

intensification

ephemerality

WELFARE STATE

New New Now Continue:

New New New Now Continue:

S WATER

Y/ N

MARKET

FOSTER YOUR MICRO

BACK TAX FREE ZONE

NO SPECIAL FISCAL POLICIES FOR NL “EU votes for Common Taxation System”

NL DELUXE

Re-Run

123

Adv

vice

Advice to the Ministry#1 PANOPTICON

PRISON RESORT

Shock 1

"No money for prisons"

OPEN JAIL

Shock 2

"water sold to Suez"

Cutbacks on public services

Public services bou by Multinationals

126

- Cha

nge p

rison-

conce pt - Use modu la cells scatte r prisonred ov count ry er the - Invo lve sMARKET oci techn OPEN ology ety and for se curtiy NL DELUXE

GIVE IT BACK MAILBOX-COUNTRY

FOSTER YOUR MICRO Shock 3

"End of NL tax-haven"

ught

A LWAYS W ATER ALWAYS WATER

Exodus of Multinationals 127

Advice to the Ministry#2 PANOPTICON

PRISON RESORT

Shock 1

"No money for prisons"

OPEN JAIL

Shock 2

"water sold to Suez"

Cutbacks on public services

Public services bou by Multinationals

128

- Cha nge p risonconce on in - Use zaptti i t a modu v i pr loaw oney cells l r l m p A e r i s so i sc r dtoora ncount aotrtdeere ver th ry eater w e h - Invo sure t ation to n E lve sMARKET oblig ocyiectle , techn OPEN ology c y aan y p nd fcoorm se curtiy ds by e e n asic b e r u - Ens les A LWAYS W ATER ALWAYS WATER o boreh

GIVE IT BACK MAILBOX-COUNTRY

FOSTER YOUR MICRO Shock 3

"End of NL tax-haven"

ught

NL DELUXE

Exodus of Multinationals 129

Advice to the Ministry#3 PANOPTICON

PRISON RESORT

Shock 1

"No money for prisons"

OPEN JAIL

Shock 2

"water sold to Suez"

Cutbacks on public services

Public services bou by Multinationals

130

- Change foc us from multination als to on-cm oic ncreopâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s n in o i t t - Use a z modu ivati r p w l a oney cells o r pris- M l l m A e s a i n- ke it easy to sc ao start r dtooru count aotrtdeere vepr tahmicro ry eater w e h - Invo sure- tMaation to n E lve sMARKET oblig ke office-spaces ocyiectle , techn OPEN ology c y aan y p nd fcoorm se curtiy ds by e e n asic b e r u - Ens les A LWAYS WATER ALWAYS o NL DELUXE boreh - Cha nge p ris

MAILBOX-COUNTRY

FOSTER YOUR MICRO Shock 3

"End of NL tax-haven"

ught

GIVE IT BACK

Exodus of Multinationals 131

LAURA COMA & KOEN SCHABALLIE

LN tneiliseR

SCITILOP 132