Spring, summer forecasts look very promising for farmers

Environment Canada climatologist says models are showing ideal growing conditions for spring, summer

MIKE WILSON

The late Maya Angelou, a renowned American poet and civil rights activist, once said, “If you don’t know where you’ve come from, you don’t know where you’re going.”

The same can be said for forecasting the weather.

David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, says that while winter conditions will not guarantee what spring will look like, they can provide an idea of what is in store.

“I always think there is no connection between one season and the next season. That is generally true –spring doesn’t tell you what summer is going to be like, and winter doesn’t tell you what spring is going to be like,” he said. “The only connection is if you have a hard winter, then spring is a little slower to come because you’ve got to get rid of the winter look and feel before you can expect the ground to soften up and the smells of spring to come.”

Added Phillips, “Mother Nature has its own personality and character and will do what it wants to do and we just try to guess what it is going to give us. I think it is important in interpreting what we see going ahead by what you have right now.”

Phillips said the fall, particularly September, provided plenty of rain – about twice the September average – to replenish soil levels in midwestern Ontario.

“I think that water may have hurt harvesting at the end, but it got the moisture into the rivers and creeks, and the soil moisture was well-replenished,” said Phillips.

“There was some very adequate moisture there to remove any deficit that had occurred. I think there was some very promising news from that point of view.”

According to Phillips, the current amount of snowfall in our region is about two-thirds of normal amounts.

“The amount of precipitation since January has been down a bit,” he said.

He describes the weather since September to be “very close to normal.”

“What could be better for a farmer?” he asked. “Normal is what they live for. They don’t want it to be really hot and really cold, they want normal. That’s what you’re all set up for – your strategies, policies, decisions are all based on normal.” commented.

While the weather is warming up slightly, Phillips warns it is too early to put away the snowblower and shovel.

“We still have a long way to go. Anything we get now in terms of temperatures that seem mild or springlike, it’s false spring,” he said. “You can’t always get out in your fields in March, and we all know April can be the cruel month, so overall when you look at snowfall in your region, about 27 per cent of your annual snowfall occurs after Feb. 13.

“Don’t write the final chapter on winter quite yet.”

As far as spring is concerned, Phillips says Environment Canada’s models predict a warmer-than-normal spring for southern Ontario.

“But it’s not July warmth, it’s warmer than seasonal temperatures. Most of Canada is showing colder than normal,” he said.

Phillips believes spring will be “slow but persistent” in arriving due to the frozen ground from January’s temperatures and the lack of “January thaw.”

- David Phillips, Senior Climatologist Environment Canada

Temperature-wise, winter began in January, said Phillips, when the colder-than-usual temperatures rolled in and the snow began to fall.

“You had more than twice the number of cold days (-20), but prior to that it wasn’t very difficult at all. December was almost four degrees warmer than normal, and November as kind of near normal. October was one of the warmest months we have ever seen – four degrees warmer than normal,” he explained.

We also didn’t experience the usual “January thaw,” said Phillips.

“All of the snow that came, which wasn’t a lot, remained. I think that cover for growing is good,” he

“It looks like things will begin to warm up and we’re going to see above normal precipitation through the spring,” he said. “My sense is this is probably as good as farmers can hope for – the gradual loss of winter and sure, steady arrival of spring.”

In terms of looking ahead at the summer, Phillips was hesitant to put much stock into forecasts that far in advance.

“This this is almost science fiction to look that far in advance, but both the Canadian and American models are saying the same thing: a warmer-than-normal summer and wetter,” said Phillips.

That, he says, is music to growers’ ears.

“Warmer doesn’t help if you got drier. But if you got warmer and wetter, oh my gosh, that’s a utopia for gardeners and farmers,” he said. “It could be a bumper year if you have that forecast.

“I wouldn’t want to bet more than a loonie or two on that, but that’s what the models are saying right now.”