2.2.5 Arctic Permafrost Thawing and Sea Ice Melt

Construction and maintenance also will be affected. Shorter winters will lengthen the construction season in some parts of the country, but an increased number of very hot days will limit construction and maintenance activities in the summertime. In another maintenance-related impact, freeze-thaw cycles will likely shift in location and duration. Although areas that currently experience the most damage from freeze-thaw effects on pavement and infrastructure may benefit from warmer temperatures, it is likely that areas that currently experience consistently below-freezing temperatures will see an increase in maintenance and repair costs as temperatures more often cross the freezing point as part of the daily temperature cycle.

A more difficult to assess secondary effect is changes in production and demographics that will affect transportation demand. Agricultural production in particular will be impacted by a changing climate. This could have major impacts on use of the inland waterway system, which is the primary outlet for much of the heartland’s produce. Demographic shifts could result as populations move to cooler areas or away from vulnerable coastal areas, or as resort and recreation areas change. Potentially, this may result in new infrastructure needs in areas of population growth, while areas that experience population declines may be overserved by existing infrastructure, making it difficult to maintain cost-effectively.

2.2.5 Arctic Permafrost Thawing and

Sea Ice Melt

Arctic transportation systems face a unique set of concerns related to climate change, for two reasons. First, the Arctic already is experiencing more rapid warming than the rest of the United States, and this trend is projected to continue by almost all climate models as the pace of global warming accelerates. Secondly, the Arctic regions have transportation systems and construction