Figure 2-6: Reported Collisions

FIGURE 2-6: Reported Collisions

2.10 Propensity Model

To help define study focus areas, a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) model was created to reveal relationships between the many factors analyzed. A Bicycle-Pedestrian Propensity Model (BPPM) was developed, considering all of the previously discussed analysis inputs, to establish where bicyclists and pedestrians are most likely to be, either currently or if improvements were to be made. The BPPM is comprised of three sub-models: Attractor, Generator, and Barrier Models. These three sub-models are then combined to create the composite BPPM.

Attractors are activity centers known to attract bicyclists and pedestrians. Examples are schools, transit stops, and shopping centers. Generators are developed from demographic data and address potential pedestrian and bicyclist volume based on how many people live and work within the study area. Examples of generators are population density, employment density, primary mode of transportation to work, and vehicle ownership. Barriers are features likely to discourage or detract people from bicycling or walking. These are generally physical limitations, such as areas with high numbers of bicycle and pedestrian-related collisions, high vehicle volumes and speeds, and missing sidewalks.

The resulting map displayed in Figure 2-7 was employed to aid in developing general recommendations and to help select priority projects described in the following chapters.

The BPPM map shows highest likely use along major corridors, especially along Pioneer Boulevard, 183rd Street, and 186th Street. In addition to these corridors, the BPPM depicts regions within the City that should be considered such as the area north of CA SR-91 and the central region of the City around Downtown Artesia.