Venture
TARANAKI Te Puna Umanga
TARANAKI INDUSTRY PROJECTIONS 2013 - 2036
Foreword Stuart Trundle, Chief Executive, Venture Taranaki In November 2007 we released a comprehensive report into Taranaki’s industry makeup and performance, and projections on the longer term outlook.
The report looks at eight of the region’s key sectors and underscores the fact that Taranaki does more than its share when it comes to the nation’s economic development.
That report found that Taranaki’s economy was expected to grow faster than the national economy to 2026, with particularly rapid expansion around the oil and gas sector, its supply chain, and associated companies.
Despite the regional population growing at the same rate as the national average 2006-2013, GDP over that period grew at 1.9 percent in Taranaki vs 1.4 percent nationally. Per capita Taranaki contributes $60,500 in GDP for every resident, against the nation’s $49,900.
It forecast that some 16,500 additional FTEs would be required in the Taranaki job market to meet this growth, a projection that helped the region formulate its population target of 135,000 residents by 2035. When we commissioned that research the world was yet to embark on a global economic crisis which would have multiple and multigenerational impacts on the regional economy.
These projections will underpin Venture Taranaki’s efforts to raise the regional profile with decision makers in Wellington. They should also underpin your own strategic planning, as the report offers a vision of how Taranaki’s economic and industry makeup could look to 2036. Now we are all required to work collectively, strategically and smartly to achieve that vision.
Despite this, the results of the 2013 Census and a number of ongoing economic indicators have validated the 2007 report’s projections, and have underscored that with smart and hard work, Taranaki can realise its strategic potential. It is that potential that we have again projected in this report, Taranaki Industry Projections 20132036.
Stuart Trundle Chief Executive, Venture Taranaki
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Executive Summary This report was commissioned by Venture Taranaki Trust to provide an overview of the Taranaki region economy. It looks at the historical growth of industries in the region to 2013, with a more in-depth analysis of key industry sectors. It then provides employment and GDP projections by industry to 2036. 109,600 people live in the Taranaki region. From this, 51,100 Full Time Equivalents (FTEs) were employed in 14,600 businesses in 2013 producing $6.6 billion in GDP. Taranaki makes up 2.7 percent of national employment and contributes 3.1 percent of national GDP. The key industries that drive the Taranaki economy are the oil and gas, and agriculture sectors, and their associated secondary industries such as food processing and engineering. As such, the region employs a far larger proportion of workers in these industries than New Zealand. Taranaki has achieved strong rises in employment and GDP in the region over the last seven years, while its population growth has matched the New Zealand average. On a GDP per capita basis, Taranaki is well ahead of the national average. Overall growth in employment and GDP in Taranaki has been higher than national growth over the period.
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went from a small increase from the previous five-years and actually increased in-line with the national average, by adding 5,500 people between 2006 and 2013.
Employment Agriculture, including dairy cattle farming, is the biggest employer in the region, accounting for 14 percent of FTEs in 2013. The three manufacturing industries – food processing, engineering and other manufacturing – together accounted for a further 18 percent of Taranaki employment. While the Taranaki population has grown by 0.7 percent per annum in line with national population growth, employment growth in Taranaki averaged a solid 1.0 percent per annum over the last seven years. This compares to growth of 0.7 percent per annum in New Zealand. This indicates higher labour force participation is occurring in the region in order to meet the demand for labour. Employment over the last seven years has grown rapidly across a range of industries including traditional strengths such as oil and gas (3.7 percent per annum) and engineering (2.6 percent per annum), but also in services such as utilities (10.4 percent per annum), cultural and recreational services (4.6 percent per annum), personal services (4.4 percent per annum), and business, finance and property services (3.3 percent per annum).
The Taranaki region continues to benefit from shifts in the global economy, as demand expands for energy and commodities (food and raw materials). The aspirations of the developing world, with a new development bank established by the BRICS grouping a recent indication, is likely to see demand for energy, raw materials and food continue to expand. With agriculture, food processing and energy sectors driving its economic activity, the Taranaki region is well placed to take advantage of the changing global economic environment.
GDP Taranaki GDP growth over the last seven years was 1.9 percent per annum, which was higher than national GDP growth of 1.7 percent per annum. The higher GDP growth rate in Taranaki is strongly linked to higher employment growth and industry composition. Activity has been strong and several individual industries have recorded strong growth. Rising economic activity has seen strong GDP growth in utilities (6.7 percent per annum), other manufacturing (5.0 percent per annum) and a number of other industries from transport and storage to business, finance and property services.
This positive shift cannot rely solely on increases in participation or productivity and will require an increase in employment, which should encourage population growth in the region. Increased population will flow through to the populationbased industries (education, health, cultural and personal services). There are glimpses of this in the latest census numbers where the population
An industry mix with a high proportion of lower GDP industries distorts GDP growth in the region compared to nationally. Taking into account the region’s relative proportion of low GDP per FTE industries, it has done very well in terms of its GDP performance. Further, looking at a similar measure, GDP per capita, Taranaki is significantly better off than nationally ($60,500 vs. $49,900).
Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
The importance of primary and processing industries in Taranaki is once again clear from the far higher proportions of GDP that they contribute to the region compared to what is seen nationally. Although it employs just three percent of FTEs, mining (oil and gas) produces 19 percent of the region’s GDP. Agriculture production produces 11 percent of the region’s GDP, while food processing (mostly dairy and meat) contributes a further 10 percent.
Key sectors This report considers eight key sectors in greater depth. The oil and gas sector in Taranaki is significant from a regional and national perspective. It accounts for 87 percent of all oil and gas employment and 75 percent of all oil and gas GDP in New Zealand. It has the highest employment multiplier among the eight key sectors; for every FTE created in the sector, a further 5.29 FTEs are created in the Taranaki economy. Further, the oil and gas industry exports 65 percent of its output. The dairy sector produced 11 percent of Taranaki GDP in 2013. Although Taranaki contributes just three percent of New Zealand’s GDP, the region produced 14 percent of national dairy GDP and employment. A wide range of industries rely on the dairy sector to consume their outputs. More than 65 percent of regional dairy output is exported. The meat processing, engineering and other manufacturing sectors (i.e. all manufacturing except dairy) in Taranaki employed 7,200 FTEs between them in 2013, 14 percent of all Taranaki employment. More than half of the output from these three sectors was exported, equivalent to 22 percent of all Taranaki exports.
seen in the national figures of 0.2 percent per annum, 1.1 percent per annum, and 0.5 percent per annum respectively. This suggests there is significant growth potential for the tourism industry in the Taranaki region.
Projections Taranaki’s economy is expected to grow faster than the national economy over the next 23 years. The projections indicate the growing importance (and potential) of the oil and gas sector. The share of employment and GDP accounted for by oil and gas could well double over the next 23 years. Associated industries such as engineering, as well as the other manufacturing, and transport and storage industries are also likely to see rapid expansion. Along with business, finance and property services growth, these industries are expected to add around 9,690 FTEs, or 49 percent, of the region’s employment growth by 2036. Particularly strong gains in GDP are expected in oil and gas; engineering; other manufacturing; transport and storage; communication; cultural and recreational services; and personal services. These seven industries will contribute 66 percent of the increase in GDP in the region over the next 23 years. Employment in Taranaki is expected to grow by 1.4 percent per annum out to 2036, while labour productivity gains could see Taranaki GDP grow by 3.8 percent per annum out to 2036.
Education in Taranaki employed 3,200 FTEs in 2013, or one in 16 FTEs. As this sector is built around teaching and support staff, 65 percent of inputs are in the form of wages and other household income. The Taranaki public sector (excluding education) employed around 6,600 FTEs in 2013, or 13 percent of Taranaki FTEs. The tourism sector has grown faster than the regional average over the last seven years achieving 1.8 percent per annum employment growth, 3.0 percent per annum GDP growth and 1.6 percent per annum business growth. Tourism growth has been impressive within the region, with growth in regional tourism larger than that
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Contents Executive Summary
Tables
1
Introduction
6
2
Taranaki industry structure and performance
6
2.1
Taranaki population
6
2.2
Taranaki employment
7
2.3
Taranaki GDP
12
2.4
Summary of Taranaki industry structure and performance 19
3
Taranaki’s key sectors
20
3.1
Approach
20
3.2
Oil and gas sector
21
3.3
Dairy sector
23
3.4
Meat processing sector
26
3.5
Engineering sector
28
3.6
Other manufacturing sector
30
3.7
Education sector
32
3.8
Public sector
34
3.9
Tourism sector
36
Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 2.3 Table 3.1 Table 3.2 Table 3.3 Table 3.4 Table 3.5 Table 3.6 Table 3.7 Table 3.8 Table 3.9 Table 3.10 Table 3.11
4
Industry projections
39
4.1
Employment projections
39
4.2
GDP projections
41
4.3
Summary of projections
43
Table 3.13 Table 3.14
Appendix A
Multiplier analysis method
44
Table 3.15
Appendix B
BERL projections method
46
Table 3.16
Appendix C
Taranaki business units
48
Table 3.17
Table 3.12
Table 3.18 Table 3.19 Table 3.20 Table 3.21 Table 3.22 Table 3.23 Table 3.24
4
Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
Population trend, 2001-2013 Taranaki FTES, 2006 – 2013 Taranaki GDP, 2006 – 2013 Taranaki oil and gas sector Taranaki oil and gas sector total inputs and outputs Taranaki oil and gas major input industries Taranaki industries reliant on oil and gas Taranaki diary sector Taranaki dairy sector total inputs and outputs Taranaki dairy major input industries Taranaki industries reliant on dairy Taranaki meat processing sector Taranaki meat processing sector total inputs and outputs Taranaki meat processing major input industries Taranaki industries reliant on meat processing Taranaki engineering sector Taranaki engineering sector total inputs and outputs Taranaki engineering major input industries Taranaki industries reliant on engineering Taranaki other manufacturing sector Taranaki other manufacturing sector total inputs and outputs Taranaki other manufacturing major input industries Taranaki industries reliant on other manufacturing Taranaki education sector Taranaki education sector total inputs and outputs Taranaki education major input industries Taranaki industries reliant on education
6 9 15 21 22 22 23 23 24 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 31 31 32 32 33 33 34
Table 3.25 Table 3.26 Table 3.27 Table 3.28 Table 3.29 Table 3.30 Table 4.1 Table 4.2
Table 4.3 Table 4.4 Table 4.5 Table 4.6
Taranaki public sector Taranaki public sector total inputs and outputs Taranaki public sector major input industries Taranaki industries reliant on the public sector Tourism summary indicators, 2013 Recent performance of tourism sector, 2006 – 2013 Forecast employment growth in Taranaki Forecast employment growth in Taranaki, ranked by percentage change Forecast GDP growth in Taranaki Forecast GDP growth in Taranaki, ranked by percentage change National employment and GDP projections Taranaki business units, 2006 – 2013
34
Figure 2.13
35
Figure 3.1
35
Figure 4.1
36
Figure 4.2
37
Figure 4.3
38
Figure 4.4 Figure 4.5
39 Figure 4.6 40 41
Comparison of GDP growth by industry, part two, 2006 – 2013 Contributions to employment, GDP and business units Taranaki business units by industry, 2013 Comparison of business units by industry, part one, 2013 Comparison of business units by industry, part two, 2013 Business units trend, 2006 – 2013 Comparison of business unit growth by industry, part one, 2006 – 2013 Comparison of business unit growth by industry, part two, 2006 – 2013
19 37 48 49 49 51
52
53
42 46 50
Figures Figure 2.1 Figure 2.2 Figure 2.3 Figure 2.4 Figure 2.5
Figure 2.6
Figure 2.7 Figure 2.8 Figure 2.9 Figure 2.10 Figure 2.11 Figure 2.12
Taranaki FTEs, 2013 Comparison of employment by industry, part one, 2013 Comparison of employment by industry, part two, 2013 Employment trend, 2006 – 2013 Comparison of employment growth by industry, part one, 2006 – 2013 Comparison of employment growth by industry, part two, 2006 – 2013 Taranaki GDP, 2013 Comparison of GDP by industry, part one, 2013 Comparison of GDP by industry, part two, 2013 GDP trend, 2006 – 2013 GDP per capita trend, 2006 – 2013 Comparison of GDP growth by industry, part one, 2006 – 2013
7 8 9 10
11
12 13 14 14 16 17 18
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1 Introduction This report looks at the Taranaki economy from three different perspectives.
• • • • • • • •
First, it summarises the recent economic performance in Taranaki. Second, it takes an indepth look at eight key sectors in the region. Third, it forecasts how the regional economy could look in 2021, 2026 and 2036.
oil and gas dairy meat processing engineering other manufacturing education public sector tourism.
Projections of the Taranaki economy are provided in chapter 4. These projections present a picture of what employment and GDP in each of the 19 industries could be in 2021, 2026 and 2036. The analysis is based largely on the assumption that future growth trends will mirror the region’s recent performance relative to national growth.
Chapter 2 provides a summary of current economic activity in Taranaki, looking specifically at employment and GDP growth across 19 industries. Eight key sectors within the Taranaki economy are analysed in chapter 3. Some of these sectors are identical to the 19 industries discussed in chapter 2, while others are made up of more or less industries. A wide range of indicators are looked at for each sector, including where each sector sources its inputs, and where each sector’s outputs go. The eight sectors analysed are:
The Appendices explain employment multiplier analysis as well as the assumptions used in the national and regional growth projections. They also include a 19 industry analysis of business units in Taranaki.
2 Taranaki industry structure and performance This section sets out the Taranaki region’s current industry structure and performance in terms of employment and GDP. The analysis looks at the changes in industry structure between 2006 and 2013. The Taranaki region’s growth is compared to that of New Zealand, at aggregate and at industry-by-industry levels.
Taranaki, population growth has not always been in the same league as in New Zealand. Although these population-based service-focused industries have been growing fast in Taranaki as well, they are off a smaller base and, therefore, they have not impacted significantly on the regional totals.
Therefore, while employment and GDP growth in Taranaki have been higher than the national average overand the lastperformance seven years, this is an impressive 2 Taranaki industry structure performance considering the region’s population trends 2.1 Taranaki Population are at best on par with New Zealand This section sets out the Taranaki region’s current industry structure and the performance in average. terms of Employment and GDP should be employment and GDP. The analysis looks at the changes industry structure betweenin2006 and Further,inthere has been a turnaround Taranaki’s considered in light of the population in population demographics. increasingand by just 2013. The Taranaki region’s growth is compared to that of New Zealand, After at aggregate at 1.2 the region. percent between 2001 and 2006, the population grew industry-by-industry levels.
in the last seven years by 5,500 people (5.3 percent). Population growth had been significantly slower than This will impact positively on the region’s performance nationally, between 2001 and 2006 as shown in Table 2.1 Taranaki population going forward, especially as it provides the resources/ 2.1. Population growth between 2006 and 2013 is in Employment and GDP should be considered in light of the the region. Population clients to population support the in high growth/value added service line with the overall New Zealand population growth. sectors. growth had been significantly slower than nationally, between 2001 and 2006 as shown in Table 2.1. In New Zealand, a large proportion of growth has been in population-based, service-focused industries. Population growth between 2006 and 2013Inis in line with the overall New Zealand population growth. Table 2.1 Population trend, 2001-2013
Table 2.1 Population trend, 2001-2013
Census Usual Resident Population Count Taranaki Region New Zealand
2001 to 2006 change
2006 to 2013 change
Number
Number
2001
2006
2013
102,858
104,127
109,608
1,269
1.2
5,481
5.3
3,737,280
4,027,947
4,242,051
290,667
7.8
214,104
5.3
Percent
Percent
Source: Statistics New Zealand 2013 Census
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In New Zealand, a large proportion of growth has been in population-based, service-focused industries. In Taranaki, population growth has not always been in the same league as in New Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036 Zealand. Although these population-based service-focused industries have been growing fast in
2.2 Taranaki employment In 2013, the Taranaki region employed just over 51,100 FTEs, which is around 2.7 percent of national employment. The majority of the region’s employment is in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors. Employment growth in the region has accelerated since 2006, compared with its earlier growth, indicating a positive change in the Taranaki region’s economic performance. Figure 2.1 shows the proportion of employment in the Taranaki region accounted for by various industries in 2013. The three manufacturing industries – food processing, engineering, and other manufacturing – together provided 18 percent of Taranaki’s employment. Agriculture accounted for 14 percent of all employment in the region. The manufacturing and agriculture industries are related in that close to half of manufacturing employment is in food processing. The next largest industry was wholesale and retail trade, at 12 percent of employment, while finance and business services (11 percent), construction (9 percent), and health and community services (9 percent) were also major players.
However, the share of employment accounted for by each industry at a regional level relative to the national picture provides a better description of important industries in the region. Figure 2.2 and Figure 2.3, shows the proportion of employment in each industry in Taranaki compared to the New Zealand average. The three manufacturing industries – food processing, engineering, and other manufacturing – together provided 18 percent of Taranaki’s employment. Agriculture accounted for 14 percent of all employment in the region. The manufacturing and agriculture industries are related in that close to half of manufacturing employment is in food processing. The next largest industry was wholesale and retail trade, at 12 percent of employment, while finance and business services (11 percent), construction (9 percent), and health and community services (9 percent) were also major players. However, the share of employment accounted for by each industry at a regional level relative to the national picture provides a better description of important industries in the region. Figure 2.2 and Figure 2.3, shows the proportion of employment in each industry in Taranaki compared to the New Zealand average. Taranaki Industry Projections
Figure 2.1 Taranaki FTEs, 2013 Figure 2.1 Taranaki FTEs, 2013 Education 6%
Other industries 21%
Agriculture 12% Mining (O&G) 3% Food Processing 8%
Engineering 5% Other manufacturing 3%
Health & community 8%
Education 6% Bus, finance & property 10%
Construction 8% Wholesale & retail 10% Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
The three manufacturing industries – food processing, engineering, and other manufacturing – together provided 18 percent of Taranaki’s employment. Agriculture accounted for 14 percent of all employment in the region. The manufacturing and agriculture industries are related in that close to half of manufacturing employment is in food processing.
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Figure 2.2 Comparison of employment by industry, part one, 2013 Figure 2.2 Comparison of employment by industry, part one, 2013 6.8
Agriculture
13.7 0.2 0.0
Forestry
0.1 0.0
Fishing
0.4
Mining (O&G)
3.0 4.2
Food Processing
8.7 3.5
Engineering
5.9 3.8
Other manufacturing
3.0 0.8
Utilities
1.3 8.4
Construction
9.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
FTEs (% of total) New Zealand
Taranaki
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
From this we can see that a significantly higher proportion of employment in the Taranaki region is in agriculture, food processing, engineering, and mining (oil and gas). Conversely, Taranaki has a From this we can see that a significantly higher relatively proportioninofthe employment in business, finance and property services; wholesale and proportion of low employment Taranaki region trade; and other service industries. is inretail agriculture, foodthe processing, engineering,
andThese miningrelative (oil andproportions gas). Conversely, Taranaki are important when we consider employment growth. has a relatively low proportion of employment in business, finance and property services; wholesale and retail trade; and the other service industries. These relative proportions are important when we consider employment growth.
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8
Taranaki Industry Projections Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
Taranaki Industry Projections
Figure 2.3 employment by industry, two, 2013 Industry Projections Figure 2.3 Comparison of Comparison employmentofby industry, part two, 2013part Taranaki Wholesale & retail
14.4
11.5
Hospitality
4.7
5.8
4.3 Figure 2.3& Comparison of employment by industry, part two, 2013 Transport storage 4.0
Communications
0.9
1.7
Wholesale & retail Bus, finance & property
14.4
11.5
Hospitality Government admin
4.7 3.4
Transport & storage Education Communications Health & community
0.9
5.8 6.2
4.3 4.0
7.8
6.3
1.7
9.2
Bus, finance & property Cultural & recreational
16.7
6.2
3.23.4 3.0
Education
0
9.8 10.8
1.6 1.3
Government admin Personal
16.7
10.8
2
4
6
7.8
6.3
Health & community
8
10
12
9.8
14
16
18
FTEs (% of total) 9.2 1.6 1.3
Cultural & recreational
Taranaki
New Zealand 3.2 3.0
Personal
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
Table 2.2 presents FTE employment numbers for Taranaki broken down by industry between 2006 0
2
6
4
8
10
12
14
16
18
and It also a national comparison for total employment. Table 2.22013. presents FTE provides employment numbers for FTEs (% of total) Taranaki broken down by industry between 2006 Taranaki FTES, 2006comparison – 2013 and Table 2013. 2.2 It also provides a national Taranaki Newfor Zealand Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand total employment. Industry
Em ploym ent num bers (FTEs)
2006 numbers 2011for employment
%pa change
Table 2.2 presents FTE Agriculture 7,083 7,077 for total 7,197 6,991 and 2013. It also provides a national comparison employment. Forestry
46
27
2012 Taranaki 18
2013 broken
down2012 by
12
Fishing
12 13 13 10 Table 2.2 Taranaki FTES, 2006Table – 2013 2.2 Taranaki FTES, 2006 – 2013 Mining (O&G)
Food Processing Industry Engineering Other manufacturing Agriculture Utilities Forestry Construction Fishing Wholesale & retail trade Mining (O&G) Hospitality Food Processing Transport & storage Engineering Communications Other manufacturing Business, finance & property services Utilities Government administration Construction Education Wholesale & retail trade Health & community services Hospitality Cultural & recreational services Transport & storage Personal services Communications Taranaki Business, finance & property services New Zealand Government administration Education Health & community services
1,189
1,043
1,222
1,535
2013between 2006 to2006 2013 industry
1.7
-2.9
-0.2
-31.4
-33.9
-17.4
-2.8
-21.5
-2.0
17.2
25.6
3.7
4,355 Em ploym 4,341 4,484 3.3 -1.2 0.2 ent num bers (FTEs) 4,430 %pa change 2,509 2,746 2,953 2,996 7.6 1.5 2.6 2006 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 2006 to 2013 1,483 1,501 1,481 1,557 -1.3 5.1 0.7 7,083 7,077 7,197 6,991 1.7 -2.9 -0.2 338 586 588 675 0.4 14.8 10.4 46 27 18 12 -31.4 -33.9 -17.4 4,657 5,617 5,442 4,740 -3.1 -12.9 0.3 12 13 13 10 -2.8 -21.5 -2.0 6,990 5,990 5,869 5,858 -2.0 -0.2 -2.5 1,189 1,043 1,222 1,535 17.2 25.6 3.7 2,265 2,422 2,542 2,417 5.0 -4.9 0.9 4,355 4,341 4,484 4,430 3.3 -1.2 0.2 1,702 2,027 1,935 2,033 -4.6 5.1 2.6 2,509 2,746 2,953 2,996 7.6 1.5 2.6 796 552 514 443 -6.9 -13.9 -8.0 1,483 1,501 1,481 1,557 -1.3 5.1 0.7 4,371 5,204 5,232 5,504 0.5 5.2 3.3 338 586 588 675 0.4 14.8 10.4 1,528 1,686 1,726 1,737 2.4 0.6 1.9 4,657 5,617 5,442 4,740 -3.1 -12.9 0.3 2,885 3,319 3,272 3,221 -1.4 -1.5 1.6 6,990 5,990 5,869 5,858 -2.0 -0.2 -2.5 3,862 4,597 4,694 4,725 2.1 0.7 2.9 2,265 2,422 2,542 2,417 5.0 -4.9 0.9 485 682 697 667 2.1 -4.3 4.6 1,702 2,027 1,935 2,033 -4.6 5.1 2.6 1,155 1,507 1,576 1,558 4.6 -1.2 4.4 796 552 514 443 -6.9 -13.9 -8.0 47,709 50,937 51,454 51,109 1.0 -0.7 1.0 4,371 5,204 5,232 5,504 0.5 5.2 3.3 1,794,183 1,860,767 1,878,583 1,883,050 1.0 0.2 0.7 1,528 1,686 1,726 1,737 2.4 0.6 1.9 Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand 2,885 3,319 3,272 3,221 -1.4 -1.5 1.6 3,862
4,597
4,694
4,725
2.1
0.7
2.9
Over the last seven years, the Taranaki region averaged employment growth of 1.0 percent per Cultural & recreational services 485 682 697 667 2.1 -4.3 4.6 annum compared to 0.7 percent per annum for New Zealand. Regional growth higher than4.4 that Personal services 1,155 1,507 1,576 1,558 4.6 was -1.2 Taranaki New Zealand
47,709
50,937
51,454
51,109
1.0
-0.7
1.0
1,794,183
1,860,767
1,878,583
1,883,050
1.0
0.2
0.7
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
2 Taranaki industry structure and performance Over the last seven years, the Taranaki region averaged employment growth of 1.0 percent per annum compared to 0.7 percent per annum for New Zealand. Regional growth was higher than that
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9
Over the last seven years, the Taranaki region averaged employment growth of 1.0 percent per annum compared to 0.7 percent per annum for New Zealand. Regional growth was higher than that seen nationally, with much of the higher growth down to strong growth in the business, finance and property services, and other service industries. This strong growth in services has been helped by the good population growth seen in the Taranaki region over the last seven years.
Figure 2.4 shows the trend in employment growth in the Taranaki region compared to New Zealand employment growth between 2006 and 2013. Employment growth in Taranaki has been faster than that of New Zealand over the last five years. What makes this performance very good is that the employment growth has been achieved with population growth that has mirrored New Zealand’s over the seven year period.
Figure 2.5 and Figure 2.6, compares employment The fastest employment growth over the last seven growth in Taranaki and New Zealand at the years in percentage terms was in utilities, which 19-industry level over the last seven years. grew from around 338 FTEs to 675 FTEs, an increase of 10.4 percent per annum. Other particularly strong performers were cultural and recreational services (4.6 percent per annum); personal seen nationally, with much of theservices higher growth down to strong growth in the business, finance and (4.4 percent per annum); and mining (oil & gas) (3.7 property services, and other service industries. This strong growth in services has been helped by percent per annum). the good population growth seen in the Taranaki region over the last seven years.
Only five of thefastest 19 industries experienced The employment growthfalls overinthe last seven years in percentage terms was in utilities, which employment over the period. The largest industry, grew from around 338 FTEs to 675 FTEs, an increase of 10.4 percent per annum. Other particularly agriculture, saw a decline of 0.2 percent per strong performers were cultural and recreational services (4.6 percent per annum); personal services annum (around 90 FTEs). Other industries where (4.4 percent per annum); and mining (oil & gas) (3.7 percent per annum). employment fell were forestry (-17.4 percent per annum); communications (-8.0 percent per annum); falls in employment over the period. The largest industry, Only five of the 19 industries experienced wholesaleagriculture, and retail trade (-2.5 percent per saw a decline of 0.2annum); percent per annum (around 90 FTEs). Other industries where and forestry (-2.0 percent per annum). employment fell were forestry (-17.4 percent per annum); communications (-8.0 percent per annum); wholesale and retail trade (-2.5 percent per annum); and forestry (-2.0 percent per annum). Figure 2.4 shows the trend in employment growth in the Taranaki region compared to New Zealand employment growth between 2006 and 2013.
Figure 2.42006 Employment Figure 2.4 Employment trend, – 2013 trend, 2006 – 2013 109 108
FTE index (2006=100)
107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 2006
2007
2008
2009 Taranaki
2010
2011
2012
2013
New Zealand
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
Employment growth in Taranaki has been faster than that of New Zealand over the last five years. What makes this performance very good is that the employment growth has been achieved with population growth that has mirrored New Zealand’s over the seven year period.
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Figure 2.5 and Figure 2.6,Taranaki compares employment growth Taranaki and New Zealand at the 19Industry Projections 2013 - in 2036 industry level over the last seven years.
Taranaki Industry Projections
Figure 2.5 Comparison of employment growth by industry, part one, 2006 – 2013
Figure 2.5 Comparison of employment growth by industry, part one, 2006 – 2013 0.2
Agriculture
-0.2 1.5
Forestry
-17.4 3.2
Fishing
-2.0 5.5
Mining (O&G)
3.7 -0.2
Food Processing
0.2 -1.1
Engineering
2.6 -3.9
Other manufacturing
0.7 5.7
Utilities
10.4 0.2 0.3
Construction
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
FTE growth 2006-2013 (%pa) New Zealand
Taranaki
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
The general national trend is lower employment growth in the primary industries, while growth is strong in services as well as utilities. A lot of this is due to increasing productivity in the primary The sector, generalbut national trend is lower employment also the growth in demand for services industries, driven in large part by global trends and growth in the primary industries, while growth is population.
strong in services as well as utilities. A lot of this is due to increasing productivity in the primary sector, but also the growth in demand for services industries, driven in large part by global trends and population.
2 Taranaki industry structure and performance
7
11
Figure 2.6 Comparison of employment growth by industry, part two, 2006 – 2013 Figure 2.6 Comparison of employment growth by industry, part two, 2006 – 2013 -1.8 -2.5
Wholesale & retail
1.4 0.9
Hospitality 0.1
Transport & storage
2.6 -2.9
Communications
-8.0 2.0
Bus, finance & property
3.3 3.2
Government admin
1.9 2.3 1.6
Education
3.6 2.9
Health & community 1.8
Cultural & recreational
4.6 3.1
Personal
4.4
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
FTE growth 2006-2013 (%pa) New Zealand
Taranaki
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
The Taranaki region tends to follow the national trends in each industry with growth in the service industries. It has, however, seen good growth in engineering, one of the region’s traditional The Taranaki region tends to follow the national 2.3 Taranaki GDP strengths. In addition, other industries such as utilities; business, finance and property services; trends in each industry with growth in the service The Taranaki economy generated around culturalItand services; and personal services have added jobs at a faster rate than New industries. has,recreations however, seen good growth $6.6 billion in GDP, or 3.1 percent of Zealand asone a whole. in engineering, of the region’s traditional
GDP, in 2013. strengths. In addition, othersignificant industries falls such in as employmentnational The region has seen in two of its smaller industries, forestry and utilities; business, finance and property services; fishing, while these industries nationally have grownFigure over 2.7 the shows last seven years. Communications the composition of the Taranaki cultural and recreations services; and personal employment in Taranaki fell at 8.0 percent per annum, while wholesale and retail has fallen by 2.5 region’s GDP in 2013. services have added jobs at a faster rate than New percent annum, this has occurred against a backdrop of decreases at the national level in both of Zealand as aper whole. these industries.
The region has seen significant falls in employment in two of its smaller industries, forestry and fishing, 2.3 Taranaki GDP while these industries nationally have grown over Theseven Taranaki generated around $6.6 billion in GDP, or 3.1 percent of national GDP, in the last years.economy Communications employment 1 2013. fell at 8.0 percent per annum, while in Taranaki wholesale and retail has fallen by 2.5 percent per Figure 2.7 shows the composition of the Taranaki region’s GDP in 2013. annum, this has occurred against a backdrop of decreases at the national level in both of these industries.
1
The $6.6 billion for Taranaki region includes $700 million of non-productive GDP generated by owner-occupied dwellings, which is not included in any of the 19 industries examined in this chapter. The $6.6 billion for Taranaki region includes $700 million of non-productive GDP generated by owner-occupied dwellings, which is not included in any of the 19 industries examined in this chapter.
1
8
12
Taranaki Industry Projections Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
Taranaki Industry Projections
Figure 2.7 Taranaki GDP, 2013
Figure 2.7 Taranaki GDP, 2013
Other industries 20%
Agriculture 11%
Mining (O&G) 19%
Health & community 6%
Bus, finance & property 9%
Food Processing 10%
Wholesale & retail 9% Construction Other manufacturing 5% 6%
Engineering 5%
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
Mining (oil & gas) makes the biggest contribution to the region’s GDP, accounting for 19 percent. This is followed by agriculture (11 percent), food processing (10 percent), business, finance and Mining (oil & gas) makes the biggest contribution to propertyGDP, (9 percent) and for wholesale and This retailistrade (9 percent). the region’s accounting 19 percent.
followed by agriculture (11 percent), food processing The very high proportion of GDP accounted for by mining (oil and gas) is unique in New Zealand. (10 percent), business, finance and property (9 GDP in agriculture, food processing, engineering and utilities are all relatively higher than nationally. percent) and wholesale and retail trade (9 percent).
Figure 2.8 and Figure 2.9, compares the relative contributions to GDP of each industry in Taranaki The and veryNew high Zealand proportion of GDP accounted for by in 2013.
mining (oil and gas) is unique in New Zealand. GDP in agriculture, food processing, engineering and utilities are all relatively higher than nationally. Figure 2.8 and Figure 2.9, compares the relative contributions to GDP of each industry in Taranaki and New Zealand in 2013.
2 Taranaki industry structure and performance
9
13
Figure 2.8 Comparison of GDP by industry, part one, 2013
Figure 2.8 Comparison of GDP by industry, part one, 2013 Figure 2.8 Comparison of GDP by industry, part one, 2013 6.4
Agriculture
11.4 6.4
1.3
Agriculture Forestry
11.4
0.1
Forestry Fishing
0.1 0.1 0.0
MiningFishing (O&G)
0.1 0.0
1.3
1.0 19.1 1.0
Mining (O&G) Food Processing
5.9
FoodEngineering Processing Engineering Other manufacturing
3.8
5.9 10.2
5.3 6.8 5.3 5.4
Other manufacturing Utilities
2.7
Utilities Construction
2.7
Construction
19.1
10.2 3.8
6.8 3.6
5.4
3.6
5.8 5.3
0
2
4
65.8 5.3
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
GDP (% of total) 10 12
14
16
18
20
GDP (% of total) New Zealand Taranaki New Zealand
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
Taranaki
Source: BERL Regional Statistics New Zealand Mining (oil and gas) stands out as having the most significant difference from Database, the national situation. Mining (oil and gas)itstands out asfor having the mostof GDP, whereas oil and gasnationally sector to the Taranaki region. Similarly, In the region, accounts 19 percent it accounts for around 1.0 Miningdifference (oil and gas) stands out assituation. having the most significant difference from theengineering national situation. significant national food agriculture, percent. Again, from this the highlights the importance of the oilprocessing, and gas sector to the Taranaki and region. In region, the region, it accounts for 19 of percent of GDP, whereas nationally it accounts for around 1.0 at In the accounts for 19 percent GDP, utilities make relatively highhigh contributions to GDP Similarly, itfood processing, agriculture, engineering and utilities make relatively contributions to percent. Again, this highlights the 1.0 importance of the and gas whereas nationally it accounts for around theoil regional level.sector to the Taranaki region. GDP at the regional level. percent. Again, thisprocessing, highlights the importance of the Similarly, food agriculture, engineering and utilities make relatively high contributions to GDP at 2.9 the Comparison regional level.of GDP by industry, part two, 2013 Figure
Figure 2.9 Comparison of GDP by industry, part two, 2013
Figure 2.9 Comparison of GDP by industry, part two, 2013 Wholesale & retail Hospitality Wholesale & retail
1.3
TransportHospitality & storage
1.3
1.9
1.9
Bus, finance & property Communications
6.4
5.0 2.4
8.1
6.4
5.0
8.1
2.4
admin Bus,Government finance & property Education Government admin
4.0
1.1 0.8
Personal Cultural & recreational
1.1 1.6 0.8 1.3
0
5.2
4.0
2.7
Cultural Health&&recreational community
17.1
8.9
2.7 2.5
Health & community Education
17.1
8.9
5.2
2.5
0
13.5
8.6
Communications Transport & storage
Personal
13.5
8.6
6.0
6.0
1.6 2 1.3
4
2
4
7.4
7.4
6
8
12
14
16
18
20
6
GDP (% of total) 8 10 12
10
14
16
18
20
(% of total) New ZealandGDP Taranaki New Zealand
14
10
Taranaki Industry Projections
10
Taranaki Industry Projections
Taranaki
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
GDP has decreased in two industries, namely forestry (-14.9 percent), and fishing (-5.3 percent per annum).
Within the Taranaki region, most of the retail, business and people services make a relatively smaller contribution to GDP than is seen nationally. This is due to the disproportionately large contribution of the primary and manufacturing sectors in the Taranaki economy as well as the smaller population base of the region.
Interestingly, agriculture (1.5 percent per annum), wholesale and retail trade (1.3 percent per annum) and communications (2.5 percent per annum) have seen GDP rise despite falling employment, indicating a sharp improvement in labour productivity.
Table 2.3 presents the annual change in GDP for Taranaki broken down by industry between 2006 and 2013. It also provides an overall GDP picture for New Zealand.
Figure 2.10 shows the trend in GDP growth in the Taranaki region compared to New Zealand GDP growth between 2006 and 2013.
Taranaki GDP growth over the last seven years, at 1.9 percent per annum, has been above that of New Zealand (1.4 percent per annum). This is largely the result of faster employment growth.
The fastest growth rate has been in the utilities Taranaki Industry Projections industry, which averaged 6.7 percent per annum, followed by other manufacturing, at 5.0 percent per annum. Major growth has also occurred in transport and storage (3.4 per cent per annum); business, finance and property services (3.2 percent per annum); and government administration (3.1 business and people services make a relatively smaller Within the Taranaki region, most of the retail, percent per annum). contribution to GDP than is seen nationally. This is due to the disproportionately large contribution of the primary and manufacturing sectors in the Taranaki economy as well as the smaller population base of the region. Table 2.3 presents the annual change in GDP for Taranaki broken down by industry between 2006 and 2013. It also provides an overall GDP picture for New Zealand.
Table 2.3 Taranaki GDP, 2006 – 2013
Table 2.3 Taranaki GDP, 2006 – 2013 Industry Agriculture Forestry Fishing
Value Added or GDP (2013 $m ) 2006
2011
2012
%pa change 2013
2012
2013
2006 to 2013
613
486
648
678
33.2
4.7
1.5
20
13
9
6
-31.5
-29.2
-14.9
1
1
1
1
8.5
-30.1
-5.3
Mining (O&G)
970
1,352
1,082
1,133
-20.0
4.7
2.2
Food Processing
598
570
594
605
4.2
1.8
0.2
Engineering
292
283
309
317
9.4
2.6
1.2
Other manufacturing
230
268
270
322
0.7
19.5
5.0
Utilities
137
217
208
216
-4.2
3.6
6.7
Construction
301
361
323
317
-10.6
-1.8
0.7
Wholesale & retail trade
464
480
493
507
2.7
2.9
1.3
73
79
82
77
4.0
-6.2
0.9
Transport & storage
235
296
278
297
-6.3
6.8
3.4
Communications
120
169
151
142
-10.7
-5.9
2.5
Business, finance & property services
424
489
496
529
1.3
6.8
3.2
Government administration
119
145
146
147
0.2
1.0
3.1
Education
150
162
162
160
0.3
-1.1
0.9
Health & community services
295
350
346
356
-1.2
3.1
2.7
Cultural & recreational services
39
47
47
47
-1.1
-0.5
2.6
Personal services
65
73
76
75
5.1
-1.0
2.2
Hospitality
Owner-Occupied Dwellings Taranaki New Zealand
666
672
697
700
3.7
0.3
0.7
5,811
6,515
6,418
6,633
-1.5
3.4
1.9
192,000
202,272
206,148
211,639
1.9
2.7
1.4
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
Taranaki GDP growth over the last seven years, at 1.9 percent per annum, has been above that of New Zealand (1.4 percent per annum). This is largely the result of faster employment growth. The fastest growth rate has been in the utilities industry, which averaged 6.7 percent per annum,
15
Figure 2.10 GDP trend, 2006 – 2013 Figure 2.10 GDP trend, 2006 – 2013 116 114
GDP index (2006=100)
112 110 108 106 104 102 100 2006
2007
2008
2009 Taranaki
2010
2011
2012
2013
New Zealand
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
The GDP trend shows a general increase for both New Zealand and Taranaki, though between 2009 and 2010, there was an increasing divergence between the two. After seeing zero growth between An alternate way of looking at GDP, taking into The GDP trend shows a general increase for both 2006 and 2007, the region saw its GDP climb faster than nationally between 2007 and 2008, before account population growth, is GDP per capita. This New Zealand and Taranaki, though between 2009 a fall over the next year. The region also sawisapresented fall in GDP between 2011 and 2012,changes unlike in in Figure 2.11, which shows and seeing 2010, there was an increasing divergence the fall in 2009 this was not reflected in the New Zealand’s overall growth. GDP per capita over the last seven years. Taranaki between the two. After seeing zero growth
GDP per capita has remained substantially above between 2006 and thepicture region saw its GDP Taranaki’s GDP2007, growth appears in line with its employment picture for the region, where both that of New Zealand as a whole across the seven climb faster than nationally between 2007 and employment and GDP are performing better relative to the rest of the country. Given that the years. In 2013, it stood at $60,500, compared to 2008, before seeing a fall over the next year. The region’s population at best has grown at the same$49,900 rate asfor the national average and given the New Zealand. region also saw a fall in GDP between 2011 and region’s industry focused more on 2012, unlike the fall instructure 2009 thisiswas not reflected in the primary sector, Taranaki’s employment and GDP pictures suggest they have been performing at a high level. the New Zealand’s overall growth. An alternate way of looking at GDP, taking into account population growth, is GDP per capita. This is
Taranaki’s GDP growth picture appears in line with presented in Figure 2.11, which shows changes in GDP per capita over the last seven years. its employment picture for the region, where both Taranaki and GDPGDP perare capita has remained substantially above that of New Zealand as a whole across employment performing better relative therest seven years. In 2013, stood atregion’s $60,500, compared to $49,900 for New Zealand. to the of the country. Givenit that the population at best has grown at the same rate as the national average and given the region’s industry structure is focused more on the primary sector, Taranaki’s employment and GDP pictures suggest they have been performing at a high level.
12
16
Taranaki Industry Projections Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
Taranaki Industry Projections
Figure 2.11 GDP per capita trend, 2006 – 2013 Figure 2.11 GDP per capita trend, 2006 – 2013 65,000
GDP per capita (2013$)
60,000
55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000 2006
2007
2008 Taranaki
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
New Zealand Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
Compared to nationally, Taranaki has performed well in most industries apart from population based ones such as retail, education, health and recreational services. Figure 2.12 and Figure 2.13, compares seven-year annual averagefor GDP Compared to nationally, Taranaki has performed compares the seven-year annual average GDP growth rates ofthe Taranaki and New Zealand each growth rates of Taranaki and New Zealand for each wellindustry. in most industries apart from population
based ones such as retail, education, health and recreational services. Figure 2.12 and Figure 2.13,
industry.
2 Taranaki industry structure and performance
13
17
Figure 2.12 Comparison of GDP growth by industry, part one, 2006 – 2013 Figure 2.12 Comparison of GDP growth by industry, part one, 2006 – 2013 1.3 1.5
Agriculture
4.6
Forestry
-14.9 -0.4
Fishing
-5.3 2.7 2.2
Mining (O&G) -0.3
Food Processing
0.2 -1.9
Engineering
1.2 -0.5
Other manufacturing
5.0 2.2
Utilities
6.7 0.7 0.7
Construction
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
GDP growth 2006-2013 (%pa) New Zealand
Taranaki
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
Taranaki has managed above national average growth in GDP in several industries over the last seven years. These include agriculture; food processing; engineering; other manufacturing; utilities; Taranaki has managed above national average business, business, and property services; cultural transport and storage; communications; finance finance and property services; cultural andand growth in GDP in several industries over the last recreational services; and personal services. GDP recreational services; and personal services. GDP fell in two industries, forestry and fishing, which seven years. These include agriculture; food fell in two industries, forestry and fishing, which are are the two smallest industries in the Taranaki region.
processing; engineering; other manufacturing; utilities; transport and storage; communications;
14
18
the two smallest industries in the Taranaki region.
Taranaki Industry Projections Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
Taranaki Industry Projections
Figure 2.13 Comparison of GDP growth by industry, part two, 2006 – 2013 Figure 2.13 Comparison of GDP growth by industry, part two, 2006 – 2013 1.4 1.3
Wholesale & retail
1.3 0.9
Hospitality
0.9
Transport & storage
3.4 1.5
Communications
2.5 2.8 3.2
Bus, finance & property
4.4
Government admin
3.1 1.6
Education
0.9 3.4
Health & community
2.7 -0.3
Cultural & recreational
2.6 1.0
Personal
2.2
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
GDP growth 2006-2013 (%pa) New Zealand
2.4
Taranaki
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
Summary of Taranaki industry structure and performance
employment GDP figures reveal three main Good players in theinTaranaki economyindustries – agriculture, growth population-based such 2.4 The Summary of and Taranaki industry mining (oil and and manufacturing (made asup of foodhealth, processing, engineering, and education, government administration, structure andgas) performance manufacturing). A large proportion of processing and engineering/manufacturing is related to the cultural and personal services reflects the good The employment and GDP figures reveal growth in population in the region. Population agriculture and mining three main players in industries. the Taranaki growth in the region has matched the New Zealand economy – agriculture, mining (oil to dominateaverage While agriculture and mining continue the regional growth in over theeconomy, last sevensignificant years. and GDP is occurring in services, such as business, finance and property services; and andemployment gas) and manufacturing (made up transport and storage. of food processing, engineering, and manufacturing). Good growth in population-based industries such as education, health, government administration, cultural and personal services reflects the good growth in population in the region. Population growth
A large proportion of processing and engineering/ in the region has matched the New Zealand average over the last seven years. manufacturing is related to the agriculture and mining industries. While agriculture and mining continue to dominate the regional economy, significant growth in employment and GDP is occurring in services, such as business, finance and property services; and transport and storage.
2 Taranaki industry structure and performance
15
19
3 Taranaki’s key sectors This section discusses eight key sectors in the Taranaki region. These key sectors were selected by Venture Taranaki in consultation with BERL. The discussion of each sector describes the: • sectors’ contribution to regional employment, GDP and business units • increase in total regional employment brought about by an increase of one FTE in each key sector (the key sector’s employment multiplier) • sources of the key sector’s inputs, such as from industries in the region, imports, and wages and other household income • allocation of the key sector’s outputs, such as to industries in the region, exports and consumption • industries that provide the most input into each key sector • industries most reliant on each key sector to absorb their outputs. 3.1 Approach Each sector’s contribution to employment, GDP and business units was measured using the BERL regional database. Definitions of each of the eight key sectors are based on the previous BERL projections report (2007). These sectors are oil and gas, dairy, meat processing, engineering, other manufacturing, education, the public sector, and tourism. The tourism sector analysis uses a different approach. Because tourism cuts across a number of industries it could not be analysed the same way as the other industries. For the tourism analysis we use Statistics New Zealand’s Tourism Satellite Account industry proportions as a base for determining the size of the sector in the region. Projections are based on those provided by the Tourism Research Council in their Tourism Forecasts.
in employment of one FTE in the dairy sector in Taranaki will create an additional 1.6 FTEs in the region (i.e. one FTE creates 2.6 FTEs in total). Input-output tables were used to determine the sources and allocation of the key industries’ inputs and outputs respectively. For example, within the engineering sector in Taranaki, 25 percent of inputs come from industries in the region, 41 percent of inputs are imported from other parts of New Zealand or overseas, 10 percent comes from other inputs, and 25 percent comes from labour. On the engineering sector outputs side, 56 percent is exported out of Taranaki, 24 percent feeds into other industries in the region, 3 percent is consumed locally, and 17 percent is allocated to other outputs. Similarly, input-output tables were used to determine which industries provide the most input into each of the key sectors and how reliant those industries are on key sectors to absorb their outputs. For instance, as mentioned above, 25 percent of engineering sector inputs comes from industries within the region. An immediate question is - which industries provide those inputs? Not surprisingly, 7 percent of all inputs are provided by the structural sheet and fabricated metal product manufacturing. This means that of all inputs required by the engineering sector in Taranaki, 7 percent comes from the structural sheet and fabricated metal product manufacturing. Knowing that the structural sheet and fabricated metal product manufacturing industry provides 7 percent of inputs to the engineering sector; a further question would be - how reliant is the structural sheet and fabricated metal product manufacturing industry on the engineering sector? The input-output tables indicate that 20 percent of the structural sheet and fabricated metal product manufacturing industry’s output feeds into the engineering sector. In other words, the structural sheet and fabricated metal product manufacturing industry is reliant on the engineering sector to absorb around one-fifth of its outputs.
Multiplier analysis was used to calculate the economic impact of increasing employment by one FTE in each key industry. This allowed us to estimate that, for example, an increase
20
Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
3.2 Oil and gas sector The oil and gas sector in Taranaki is made up of two industries at the 88 industry level.2 The industries are oil and gas exploration and extraction, and mining and quarrying.3
The oil and gas sector has a particularly high employment multiplier of 6.29. This means that creating one additional FTE within the sector will result in a further 5.29 FTEs in the region. Table 3.2 presents the make-up of the Taranaki oil and gas sector’s inputs and outputs. It also shows the sector’s contribution to each category of regional inputs and outputs.
Table 3.1 shows the contribution of the oil and gas sector to the Taranaki economy and to the national oil and gas sector in 2013. The oil and gas sector directly employed 1,535 FTEs in the region in 2013. Regionally, it provided a relatively small proportion of all employment (3.0 percent) and business units (1.1 percent). However, its direct contribution to regional GDP was large, at $1,133 million, or 17 percent, in 2013.
Taranaki Industry Projectio
The Taranaki region is currently home to a majority of New Zealand’s oil and gas production. As a result, it accounted for 87 percent of the oil and gas sector’s employment and 75 percent of the oil sheet and and fabricated metal product manufacturing industry provides 7 Knowing that the structural gas sector’s GDP in New Zealand in 2013.
percent of inputs to the engineering sector; a further question would be - how reliant is the structural sheet and fabricated metal product manufacturing industry on the engineering sector? The inputGrowth in this sector is likely to be strong over output that the next several years as tables a result indicate of previous and20 percent of the structural sheet and fabricated metal product manufacturing industry’s ongoing project work and the rising demandoutput for feeds into the engineering sector. In other words, the structural sheet and fabricated metal product manufacturing industry is reliant on the engineering sector to fuel. The sector is expected to play an increasingly dominant role in absorb the regional economy. around one-fifthMore of its outputs.
detail on likely rises in employment and GDP are introduced in the3.2 projections sectiongas 4. sector Oilin and
The oil and gas sector in Taranaki is made up of two industries at the 88 industry level. 2 industries are oil and gas exploration and extraction, and mining and quarrying. 3
The
Table 3.1 shows the contribution of the oil and gas sector to the Taranaki economy and to the national oil and gas sector in 2013.
Table 3.1 Taranaki oil and gas sector
Table 3.1 Taranaki oil and gas sector Taranaki oil & gas sector
Total
% of regional
% of national oil and gas
Employment (FTEs)
1,535
3.0
87.2
GDP ($mn)
1,133
17.1
74.5
163
1.1
69.7
Business units
Source: BERL regional database, Statistics NZ
The oil and gas sector directly employed 1,535 FTEs in the region in 2013. Regionally, it provided a relatively small proportion of all employment (3.0 percent) and business units (1.1 percent). However, its direct contribution to regional GDP was large, at $1,133 million, or 17 percent, in 2013. The Taranaki region is currently home to a majority of New Zealand’s oil and gas production. As a result, it accounted for 87 percent of the oil and gas sector’s employment and 75 percent of the oil 2 The 88 industries are based on the Australia and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) codes, which classify and sector’s GDP in New Zealand in 2013. the various industries in gas the economy. The reason for including mining and quarrying is that in the Taranaki region, 66 percent of these industries outputs feed Growth in this sector is likely to be strong over the next several years as a result of previous and directly into the oil and gas sector (i.e. exploration and extraction).
3
ongoing project work and the rising demand for fuel. The sector is expected to play an increasingly dominant role in the regional economy. More detail on likely rises in employment and GDP are introduced in the projections in section 4.
21
The oil and gas sector has a particularly high employment multiplier of 6.29.
This means that
Table 3.2 Taranaki oil and gas sector total inputs and outputs Table 3.2 Taranaki oil and gas sector total inputs and outputs Taranaki oil & gas sector Inputs Inputs from other Taranaki industries Imports Labour Other inputs Outputs Outputs to other Taranaki industries Exports Household and government consumption Other outputs
% of sector
% of regional
29.3 22.3 7.7 40.8
2.5 6.8 6.3 22.0
17.5 1.5 64.8 19.9 0.2 0.1 17.5 18.7 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
Other inputs (which includes depreciation, taxes and profits) make-up 41 percent of the sector’s inputs, and 22 percent of the region’s other inputs. Almost 30 percent of the sector’s inputs come Table 3.2 Taranaki oil and gas sectorThe total outputs oilinputs and gasand exploration extraction industry Other inputs (which includes taxes from industries within the depreciation, region, as explained in more detail below. A further 22 and percent of inputs in provides the largest proportion of inputs to the oil andthe profits) make-up 41 percent of the sector’s oil and gasTaranaki sector in are imported, accounting for 6.8 percent ofsector all Taranaki imports. oilTaranaki & gas sector % of % of regional and gas sector, at 7.2 percent. In other words, 7.2 inputs, and 22 percent of the region’s other inputs. Labour accounts forInputs 7.7 percent of inputs into the oil and gas sector.
percent of all inputs required by the oil and gas2.5 Almost 30 percent of the sector’s inputs comeindustries Inputs from other Taranaki 29.3 by the oil andoverseas. gas exploration fromThe industries within the region, oil and gas sector exportsas 65explained percent ofinits outputsector to theare restprovided of New Zealand and Oil6.8 Imports 22.3 Labour 7.7 and extraction industry. more detail below. A further 22 percent of inputs and gas exports account for nearly 20 percent of all Taranaki exports. The oil and gas sector6.3 inputs are imported, 40.8 22.0 in the oil and17 gaspercent sectorOther in its Taranaki supplied of outputs to industries in the Taranaki region. Outputs The second and third-largest contributors to the oil accounting for 6.8 percent of all Taranaki imports. to other inputs Taranakito industries 17.5 A number of for industries provide the oil andand gasgas sector. thequarrying top ten1.5 sector’sTable inputs3.3 arepresents mining and Labour accounts 7.7Outputs percent of inputs into the Exports 64.8 19.9 non-building construction. These industries industries by contribution to oil and gas sector inputs inand Taranaki. oil and gas sector. Household and government consumption 0.2 0.1 contribute 4.8 percent and 2.6 Other outputs 17.5percent of oil and 18.7 gas oil and65gas majorofinput inputs respectively.Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates The Table oil and3.3 gasTaranaki sector exports percent its industries output to the rest of New Zealand and overseas. inputs (which20includes taxes and profits) make-up 41 percent of the sector’s The top-ten oil and gas input industries are rounded Oil and gas exportsOther account for nearly percentdepreciation, & gas sector % of sector inputs out by various technical, business, and transport of allTaranaki Taranakioilexports. The oil and gas sector inputs, and 22 percent of the region’s other inputs. Almost 30 percent of the sector’s inputs come Oil and gas exploration and extraction 7.2 services,inasmore well as wholesale trade. These tradesupplied Mining 17 percent of its outputs within to industries in as explained from industries the region, and quarrying 4.8detail below. A further 22 percent of inputs in industries associated with the Taranaki region. Non-building construction 2.6 are typically the oil and gas sector in Taranaki are related imported, accounting for 6.8 percent of all Taranaki imports. primary industries. Together, the top ten input Scientific research and technical services 2.5 Labour accounts for 7.7 percent of inputs into the oil and gas sector. industries supply A numberElectricity of industries provide inputs to the oil generation and supply 1.3 23.2 percent of all industry inputs intoofthe and1.3gas sector. and gas sector. Table 3.3 topexports ten Motor vehicle retailing and services The oil presents and gas the sector 65 percent itsoil output to the rest of New Zealand and overseas. Oil business services 1.2 industriesOther by contribution to oil and gas sector and gas exports account for nearly 20 percent of all Taranaki exports. The oil and gas sector and chemical w holesaling 0.9 inputs in Petroleum, Taranaki.metal supplied 17 percent of its outputs to industries in the Taranaki region. Air transport, services to transport and storage 0.7 ConstructionAtrade services 0.7gas number of industries provide inputs to the oil and Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
sector. Table 3.3 presents the top ten industries by contribution to oil and gas sector inputs in Taranaki. The oil and gas exploration industry provides largest proportion of inputs to the oil Tableand 3.3extraction Taranaki oil and gas majorthe input industries Table 3.3 Taranaki oil and gas major input industries and gas sector, at 7.2 percent. In other words, 7.2 percent of all inputs required by the oil and gas sector are provided by the oil and gas exploration and extraction industry. Taranaki oil & gas sector of sector inputs The second and third-largest contributors to the oil and gas sector’s%inputs are mining and quarrying Oil and gas exploration and extraction 7.2 and non-building construction. These industries contribute 4.8 percent and 2.6 percent Mining and quarrying 4.8 of oil and gas inputs respectively. Non-building construction 2.6 Scientific research and technical services
2.5
The top-ten oil and gas inputgeneration industries rounded out by various technical, business, Electricity andare supply 1.3 and transport services, as well asMotor wholesale trade.andThese vehicle retailing servicestrade-related industries are typically 1.3 associated with business services primary industries. Other Together, the top ten input industries supply 23.2 percent of 1.2 all industry inputs Petroleum, metal and chemical w holesaling 0.9 into the oil and gas sector. Air transport, services to transport and storage 0.7 Construction trade services 0.7 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
18
22
TheProjections oil and gas exploration and extraction industry provides the largest proportion of inputs to the oil Taranaki Industry and gas sector, at 7.2 percent. In other words, 7.2 percent of all inputs required by the oil and gas Taranaki 2013 -and 2036extraction industry. sector are provided by theIndustry oil and Projections gas exploration
However, some industries are more reliant on the oil and gas sector than others in that a significant proportion of their outputs are purchased as inputs into the sector. Table 3.4 presents the ten industries most reliant on the oil and gas sector in terms of the portion of their total output contributed to the oil and gas sector in Taranaki.
Table 3.4 Taranaki industries reliant on oil and gas
Table 3.4 Taranaki industries reliant on oil and gas % of industry output going to Taranaki oil and gas sector
Mining and quarrying 66.2 Scientific research and technical services 41.8 Non-building construction 35.9 General Insurance 26.3 Non-metallic mineral product manufacturing 23.1 Motor vehicle retailing and services 17.0Taranaki Other business services 14.4 Ship, boat and other transport equipment manufacturing 12.6 Petroleum, metal and chemical w holesaling 11.5 Electricity generation and supply 11.2 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
Industry Projections
Of particular note is theare mining quarrying This industry very dependent on the oil and However, some industries moreand reliant on theindustry. oil and gas sector thanisothers in that a significant gas sector in Taranaki, with 66 percent of all output in sector. these industries inputs to the oil and of their outputs purchased asThe inputs into the However, someproportion industries are more reliantare on the dairy sector employed aroundacting 6,580as FTEs gas sector. oil and gas sector than others in that in Taranaki in 2013 (13gas percent of regional Table 3.4 presents thea significant ten industries most reliant on the oil and sector in terms of the portion of proportion of their Scientific outputs are purchased as inputs employment) in more than 2,300 businesses (16insurance each research and technical services; non-building construction, and general their total output contributed to the oil and gas sector in Taranaki. into the sector. percent of regional businesses). Between them, contribute more than one-quarter of their output to the oil and gas sector. these employees produced $723 million in GDP, or Table 3.4 Taranaki industries reliant on oil and gas
11 percent of regional GDP. Table 3.4 presents the ten industries most reliant on 3.3 sector the oil and gas sector in termsDairy of the portion of their % of industry output going to Taranaki oil and gas sector total output contributed to thesector oil andingasTaranaki sector inis madeThe of the Taranaki sector tolevel. the These two The dairy up importance of two industries at the dairy 88 industry Mining and quarrying 66.2 Taranaki. national dairy picture is evident from the fact that industries are dairy and cattle farming, and dairy product manufacturing. Scientific research and technical services it accounts for around 1441.8 percent of national dairy Non-building construction employment andtoGDP. In35.9 addition, it provides Of particular note isTable the mining and quarrying 3.5 shows the contribution of the dairy sector the Taranaki economy and to the national General Insurance 26.3 just over 14 percent of the national dairy sector’s industry. This industry issector very dependent dairy in 2013. on the Non-metallic mineral product manufacturing 23.1 business units. oil and gas sector inMotor Taranaki, with 66 percent of all vehicle retailing and services 17.0 output in these industries acting as inputs to the oil Table 3.5 Taranaki dairy sector Other business services 14.4 and gas sector. Projecting changes in the12.6 dairy sector is difficult due Ship, boat and other transport equipment manufacturing % ofthat, regional of national dairy Taranaki to the fact at least%on the manufacturing side, Petroleum,dairy metalsector and chemical w holesaling Total 11.5 Employment (FTEs) 6,580 12.9 13.7 Electricity generation and supply 11.2a few large the sector is dominated by businesses. A Scientific research and technical services; nonSource: BERL, to Butcher & Associates GDP ($mn) insurance each 723 10.9 13.9by any one decision expand or reduce operations building construction, and general Business units 2,344 16.1 can have a large 14.4 of the major players impact on the contribute more than one-quarter of their output to Of particular note is the mining and quarrying industry. This industry is very dependent on the oil and Source: BERL regional database, Statistics NZ sector in the region. It is important to keep this in the oil and gas sector. gas sector in Taranaki, with 66 percent of all output in these industries acting as inputs to the oil and mind when projecting likely changes. The dairy sector employed around 6,580 FTEs in Taranaki in 2013 (13 percent of regional gas sector. 3.3 Dairy sector employment) in more than 2,300 businesses (16 percent of regional businesses). Between them, on recent performance of the sector, The dairy sector in Taranaki is made upservices;Based Scientific research and technical non-building construction, and general insurance each these employees produced $723 millionemployment in GDP, or 11 percent of regional GDP. growth is expected to be relatively of two industries at the 88than industry level. contribute more one-quarter of their output to the oil and gas sector. modest over the next 23 years, with stronger gains The importance of the Taranaki dairy sector to the national dairy picture is evident from the fact that it on the manufacturing side than the farming side. These two industries areDairy dairyforand cattle 14 farming, around percent of national dairy employment and GDP. In addition, it provides just 3.3accounts sector Nevertheless, rises in labour productivity should see and dairy product manufacturing. over 14 percent of the national dairy sector’s business increaseunits. in at dairy GDP. More detail on two The dairy sector in Taranaki is made up aofsteady two industries thesector 88 industry level. These likely rises in employment GDP introduced in changes in thesector dairy sector is difficult due to the factand that, at are least on the manufacturing Table 3.5 shows theProjecting contribution ofand the cattle dairy industries are dairy farming, and dairy product manufacturing. section 4. to the Taranaki economy andsector to theisnational dairyby a few large businesses. A decision to expand or reduce operations side, the dominated sector in 2013.Table 3.5 shows the contribution of the dairy sector to the Taranaki economy and to the national dairy sector in 2013.
Table 3.5 Taranaki dairy sector Table 3.5 Taranaki dairy sector Taranaki dairy sector Employment (FTEs) GDP ($mn) Business units
3 Taranaki’s key sectors
Total
% of regional
% of national dairy
6,580
12.9
13.7
723
10.9
13.9
2,344
16.1
14.4
Source: BERL regional database, Statistics NZ
The dairy sector employed around 6,580 FTEs in Taranaki in 2013 (13 percent of regional employment) in more than 2,300 businesses (16 percent of regional businesses). Between them, 23 these employees produced $723 million in GDP, or 11 percent of regional GDP.
which relies on inputs from many other industries. Therefore, increasing employment by one FTE in dairy product manufacturing requires substantial increases in production within its supply industries, with the result that those industries must also employ more workers. Table 3.6 presents the make-up of the Taranaki dairy sector’s inputs and outputs. It also shows the sector’s contribution to each category of regional inputs and outputs.
Table 3.6 Taranaki and outputs Table 3.6 Taranaki dairy sectordairy totalsector inputstotal andinputs outputs Taranaki dairy sector Inputs Inputs from other Taranaki industries Imports Labour Other inputs Outputs Outputs to other Taranaki industries Exports Household and government consumption Other outputs
% of sector
% of regional
42.7 34.7 13.4 9.2
3.9 11.6 11.9 10.0
32.2 3.0 65.2 21.8 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.4 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
Almost 43 percent of the sector’s inputs come from industries within the region, as explained in more detail below. The sector imports nearly 35 percent of its inputs from outside the region. This represents 12inpercent of sector the region’s total imports. Other inputs as depreciation and operating Labour accounts for 13such percent of dairy sector The employment multiplier the dairy in surpluses account percent of inputs. inputs. The size of the dairy sector in Taranaki Taranaki is relatively high, at 2.60.forIn9other words,
ensures that dairy labour inputs represent 12 creating one new dairy FTE will lead to 1.60 further Labour accounts for 13 percent of dairy sector inputs. The size of the dairy sector in Taranaki percent of all labour inputs in the region. FTEs being employed in the region. ensures that dairy labour inputs represent 12 percent of all labour inputs in the region.
As much as 65 percent of the output isor overseas. This is largely As themuch result as of a65 very high employment percent of the sector’s output is exported to the rest ofsector’s New Zealand exported to the rest of New Zealand or overseas. multiplier within Thedairy dairyproduct sector manufacturing, is the largest export industry in Taranaki, accounting for nearly 22 percent of the The dairy sector is the largest export industry in which relies on inputs from many other industries. region’s exports. Just over 32 percent of the sector’s outputs feed into industries in the Taranaki Taranaki, accounting for nearly 22 percent of the Therefore, increasing employment by one FTE in region’s exports. Just over 32 percent of the sector’s dairy productregion. manufacturing requires substantial outputs feedtointo industries in the in Taranaki region. increases in production within its supply industries, Table 3.7 presents the top ten industries by contribution dairy sector inputs Taranaki. with the result that those industries must also Table 3.7 presents the top ten industries by employ more workers. contribution to dairy sector inputs in Taranaki. Table 3.6 presents the make-up of the Taranaki dairy sector’s inputs and outputs. It also shows the sector’s contribution to each category of regional inputs and outputs. Almost 43 percent of the sector’s inputs come from industries within the region, as explained in more detail below. The sector imports nearly 35 percent Taranaki Industry Projections 20 of its inputs from outside the region. This represents 12 percent of the region’s total imports. Other inputs such as depreciation and operating surpluses account for 9 percent of inputs.
24
Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
Taranaki Industry Pro
Table 3.7 Taranaki dairy major input industries Table 3.7 Taranaki dairy major input industries
Taranaki dairy sector % of sector inputs Dairy and cattle farming 30.1 Dairy product manufacturing 1.0 Services to agriculture and hunting and trapping 1.0 Finance 0.8 Livestock and cropping farming 0.7 Meat and meat product manufacturing 0.6 Electricity generation and supply 0.6 Motor vehicle retailing and services 0.6 Fertilizer, petroleum and other industrial chemical m 0.5 Road transport 0.46 Table 3.7 Taranaki dairy major input Source:industries BERL, Butcher & Associates
Taranaki Industry Pro
A large portion of the inputs for the dairy sector in Taranaki is, not surprisingly, provided by the dair Taranaki sector % of sector inputs and cattledairy farming industry, at 30 percent of all inputs.
The importance of the dairy sector within the A large portion of the inputsDairy for the anddairy cattle sector farming in 30.1 Taranaki region is evident from the fact that it Taranaki is, not surprisingly, provided by the dairy Dairy second product manufacturing A distant is dairy product manufacturing, followed by 1.0 services to agriculture and hunting an Services to agriculture and hunting and trapping 1.0 accounts for more teninto percent of production and cattle farming industry, at 30which percent of all trapping, each provide around 1.0 percent of allthan inputs the dairy sector. The top ten inpu Finance 0.8region. These include at dairy least 9sector industries in the inputs. industries account for 36 percent ofbyall inputs. This suggests that inputs come from Livestock and cropping farming 0.7 a range of primary-based industries such as dairy wide Meat range of industries. meat product manufacturing 0.6 and cattle farming; veterinary services; services A distant second is dairy productand manufacturing, Electricity generation and supply 0.6 to agriculture and trapping; and followed by services toHowever, agriculture hunting aand number of and industries are reliant on and the hunting dairy sector for a significant proportion of the Motor vehicle retailing and services 0.6 horticulture and fruit growing, and a small number trapping, which each provide around 1.0 percent activity. Table 3.8 presents industry’s most dairy sector in terms of the portion o Fertilizer, petroleum and otherthe industrial chemical m reliant on the0.5 of business-related industries. of all inputs into the dairy sector. The topcontributed ten input to the dairy Road transport 0.46 their total output sector. industries account for 36 percent of all dairy sector Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates Overon100 percent of the dairy and cattle farming inputs. This suggests that inputs fromindustries a wide Table 3.8 come Taranaki reliant dairy dairy sector in Taranaki is,into not the surprisingly, provided by the dair production feeds dairy sector in range of industries. A large portion of the inputs for the industry’s and cattle farming industry, at 30 percent of allAlmost inputs.half of Taranaki veterinary services % of industry output going to TaranakiTaranaki. dairy sector are inputs into the dairy sector. The dairy sector However, a number of industries are reliant on the A distant is dairy product manufacturing, followed by services to agriculture and hunting an Dairy second and cattle 105.7 accounts for more than one-third of services to dairy sector for a significant proportion offarming their Veterinary services 47.3 trapping, which each provide around 1.0 percent of all inputs the dairy sector. agriculture and hunting andinto trapping in the region.The top ten inpu activity. Table 3.8 presents the industry’s most Services to agriculture and hunting and trapping 38.8 industries for 36 of percent ofIt also all dairy sector inputs. This suggests that inputs come from absorbs more than 30 percent of outputs reliant on the dairy sector inPlastic termsaccount of the portion product manufacturing 31.0 wide Horticulture range ofdairy industries. from plastic product manufacturing. their total output contributed to the sector. and fruit grow ing 24.6
Other farming 18.8 However, a number of industries are reliant on the dairy sector for a significant proportion of the Sew erage, drainage and w aste disposal services 14.8 activity. Table presents the industry’s most reliant on the dairy sector in terms of the portion o Livestock and3.8 cropping farming 13.1 their total output contributed to the dairy sector. General Insurance 12.0
Taranaki industries MotorTable vehicle3.8 retailing and services
reliant on dairy
8.0
Source:on BERL, Butcher & Associates Table 3.8 Taranaki industries reliant dairy
The importance of the dairy sector within the Taranaki region is evident from the fact that it accoun % of industry output going to Taranaki dairy sector for more than ten percent of production by at least 9 industries in the region. These include a rang Dairy and cattle farming 105.7 of primary-based industries such as dairy and cattle farming; veterinary services; services t Veterinary services 47.3 agriculture huntingand and trapping; and horticulture and38.8 fruit growing, and a small number o Servicesand to agriculture hunting and trapping business-related Plastic product industries. manufacturing 31.0 Horticulture and fruit grow ing
24.6
Over Other 100 farming percent of the dairy and cattle farming industry’s production feeds into the dairy sector i 18.8 4 Sew erage, drainage andofw Taranaki aste disposal services services are 14.8 Taranaki. Almost half veterinary inputs into the dairy sector. The dair and cropping farming 13.1 sectorLivestock accounts for more than one-third of services to agriculture and hunting and trapping in th General Insurance 12.0 region. It also absorbs more than 30 percent of outputs from plastic product manufacturing. Motor vehicle retailing and services 8.0 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
4
Thisimportance is only possible a large decrease in already built up region inventories. The of due the to dairy sector within the Taranaki is evident from the fact that it accoun 4 fora more than teninpercent of production by at least 9 industries in the region. These include a rang This is only possible due to large decrease already built up inventories. of primary-based industries such as dairy and cattle farming; veterinary services; services t 3 Taranaki’s key sectors agriculture and hunting and trapping; and horticulture and fruit growing, and a small number o business-related industries. 25
3.4 Meat processing sector The meat processing sector in Taranaki is made up of one industry at the 88 industry level. That industry is the meat and meat processing industry.
The employment multiplier for the meat processing sector is 2.2. In other words, for every FTE created in the sector, a further 1.2 are created elsewhere in the region. This implies that a number of industries are dependent on the meat processing sector to absorb their outputs, as shown later in this section.
Table 3.9 shows the contribution of the meat processing sector to the Taranaki economy and to the national Meat processing sector in 2013. The sector employed 2,079 FTEs in 2013, producing $284 million in GDP through 16 businesses. The importance of the sector to the region is highlighted in its 4.1 percent contribution to all regional employment, and the fact that it produces 4.3 percent of regional GDP. The sector accounts for just 0.1 percent of regional businesses. This indicates that at a local level, the sector is dominated by a few large businesses. Taranaki is also home to a large proportion of the national meat processing sector, with 6.9 percent of all employment in the sector and national meat processing GDP. The region has 4.8 percent of all meat processing businesses in New Zealand. As with the dairy sector, projecting changes in the meat processing sector is difficult due to the fact that the sector is dominated by a few large businesses. A decision to expand or reduce operations by any one of the major players can have a large impact on the sector in the region. It is important to keep this in mind when projecting likely changes. Based on recent performance, employment in meat processing is expected to grow modestly over the next 23 years. Coupled with slight rises in labour productivity, this should result in GDP growth of around 3.0 percent per annum over the next 23 years. More detail rises inprocessing employment and sector 3.4on likelyMeat GDP are introduced in section 4. The meat processing sector in Taranaki is made up of one industry at the 88 industry level. That industry is the meat and meat processing industry. Table 3.9 shows the contribution of the meat processing sector to the Taranaki economy and to the national Meat processing sector in 2013.
Table 3.9 Taranaki meat processing sector
Table 3.9 Taranaki meat processing sector Taranaki m eat processing sector Employment (FTEs) GDP ($mn) Business units
% of regional
% of national meat processing
2,079
4.1
6.9
284
4.3
6.9
16
0.1
4.8
Total
Source: BERL regional database, Statistics NZ
26
The sector employed 2,079 FTEs in 2013, producing $284 million in GDP through 16 businesses. The importance of the sector to the region is highlighted in its 4.1 percent contribution to all regional Projections 2013 - 2036 employment, and theTaranaki fact thatIndustry it produces 4.3 percent of regional GDP. The sector accounts for just
Taranaki Industry Projections
Table 3.10 Taranaki meat processing sector total inputs and outputs Table 3.10 Taranaki meat processing sector total inputs and outputs Taranaki m eat processing sector Inputs Inputs from other Taranaki industries Imports Labour Other inputs Outputs Outputs to other Taranaki industries Exports Household and government consumption Other outputs
% of sector
% of regional
30.7 40.7 15.8 12.8
0.9 4.4 4.6 1.5
7.6 0.2 84.6 9.3 7.9 1.6 -0.1 -0.1 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
Taranaki Industry Pro
The sector imports 41 percent of all inputs, accounting for 4.4 percent of all Taranaki imports. Almost as much of its inputs (31 percent) are provided by industries in the region. Nearly 16 percent of inputsthe intomake-up the meat processing through labour the inputs, whichand equates to farming 4.6 percent of surprisingly, livestock cropping Table 3.10 presents of the Taranaki sector are Not regional labour inputs. Table 3.10 sector total the inputs andportion outputs industry provides biggest of inputs to meat processing sector’s inputs andTaranaki outputs. meat It alsoprocessing
sector, 12 percent. shows the sector’s contributionof to the eachsector category of regionthe The importance to the is meat clear processing from the fact thatatitalmost exports 85 percent of its Taranaki m eat processing sector % of sector % of regional A variety of other primary-related industries along regional inputs and outputs. outputs, representing Inputs 9.3 percent of Taranaki exports. Very little of the sector’s outputs (7.6 percent) with road freight transport fill the top five places. Inputs from other Taranaki industries 30.7 0.9 feeds into industries the region. The sector imports 41 percent of allininputs, Imports 40.7 4.4 The top ten industries together provide 26 percent accounting forTable 4.4 percent ofLabour all Taranaki 3.11 presents the imports. top ten industries by contribution to meat 15.8 processing sector 4.6 inputs in of all meat processing sector inputs. Almost as much of its inputsOther (31 percent) are inputs 12.8 1.5 Taranaki. provided by industries in theOutputs region. Nearly 16 Table 3.12 presents the industry’s most reliant on Outputs to other processing Taranaki 7.6 0.2 percent of inputs into3.11 the Taranaki meat processing sector industries Table meat major theinput meatindustries processing sector in terms of the portion Exports 84.6 9.3 are through labour inputs, which equates to 4.6 of their total output contributed to the meat 1.6 Household and government consumption 7.9 percent of regional labour inputs. processing sector in Taranaki.
Other outputs -0.1 -0.1 Taranaki m eat processing sector % of sector inputs Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates Livestock and cropping farming 11.6 The importance of the sector to the region is Close to four-fifths of the livestock and cropping Meat and meat product manufacturing 3.5 clear from the fact that it exports 85 percent of feeds meatofprocessing The sector imports 41 percent of allfarming inputs, industry accounting forinto 4.4 the percent all Taranaki imports. Almo Road transport 3.2 its outputs, representing 9.3 percent of inputs Taranaki sector. Two-fifths of other farming outputs areNearly also 16 percent as much of its (31 percent) are provided by industries in the region. Other farming 2.3 exports. Very little Dairy of the sector’s outputs (7.6 absorbed by meat processing, along with 16 percent and cattle farming inputs into the meat processing sector are through1.7labour inputs, which equates to 4.6 percent percent) feeds into Services industries in the region. to agriculture hunting and trapping of road transport.0.8Water and rail transport; services regional labour and inputs. to agriculture, hunting and trapping; and plastics Motor vehicle retailing and services 0.8 Table 3.11 presentsWater theThe top industriesofbythe sector to the andten rail transport 0.6fromeach product manufacturing least 1085 percent of i importance region is clear the contribute fact that itatexports Airprocessing transport, services toinputs transport and storage percent of their outputs 0.6 contribution to meat sector in to the meat processing outputs, representing 9.3 percent of Taranaki exports. Very little of the sector’s outputs (7.6 percen Petroleum, metal and chemical w holesaling 0.4 Taranaki. sector. feeds into industries in the region. Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
Table 3.11 presents the top ten industries by contribution to meat processing sector inputs Not surprisingly, the livestock and cropping farming industry provides the biggest portion of inputs to Taranaki. the meat processing sector, at almost 12 percent. A variety of other primary-related industries along Table 3.11 Taranaki meat processing major input industries with roadTable freight3.11 transport fill the top processing five places. major input industries Taranaki meat The top ten industries together provide 26 percent of all meat processing sector inputs. Taranaki m eat % of sector inputssector in terms of the portion Table 3.12 presents theprocessing industry’ssector most reliant on the meat processing Livestock and cropping farming 11.6 of their total output contributed to the meat processing sector in Taranaki. Meat and meat product manufacturing 3.5 Road transport 3.2 Other farming 2.3 Dairy and cattle farming 1.7 Services to agriculture and hunting and trapping 0.8 Motor vehicle retailing and services 0.8 Water and rail transport 0.6 Air transport, services to transport and storage 0.6 Petroleum, metal and chemical w holesaling 0.4 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
3 Taranaki’s key sectors Not surprisingly, the livestock and cropping farming industry provides the biggest portion of inputs the meat processing sector, at almost 12 percent. A variety of other primary-related industries 27 alon with road freight transport fill the top five places.
Table 3.12 Taranaki industries reliant on meat processing Table 3.12 Taranaki industries reliant on meat processing % of industry output going to Taranaki m eat processing sector Livestock and cropping farming 76.1 Other farming 40.1 Road transport 16.1 Water and rail transport 11.6 Services to agriculture and hunting and trapping 11.0 Plastic product manufacturing 10.0 Water supply 9.7 Investor in other property 4.3 Horticulture and fruit grow ing 4.0 Motor vehicle retailing and services 3.9 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
Table 3.12 Taranaki industries reliant on meat processing Close to four-fifths of the livestock and cropping farming industry feeds into the meat processin sector. Two-fifths ofTaranaki other farming outputs are also absorbed by meat processing, along with 1 % of industry output going to m eat processing Engineeringsector is expected to see strong employment 3.5 Engineering sector percent of road transport. Water and rail transport; services to agriculture, hunting and trapping; an Livestock and cropping farming 76.123 years. Coupled with good growth over the next The engineering sector consists of seven plastics contribute at 40.1 10 percent of their outputs to the me Other farmingproduct manufacturing each labour productivityleast growth, the sector’s contribution industries at the 88 industry level. processing Road transport sector. 16.1 to GDP should grow solidly out to 2036. More
Water and rail transport detail on likely rises11.6 in employment and GDP are These industries can be split into two broad Services to agriculture andgroups: hunting and trapping 11.0 3.5 Engineering sector introduced in Section 4. Plastic product 10.0 metal product manufacturing; andmanufacturing machinery and Water equipment manufacturing. Thesupply engineering sector consists of seven industries at9.7 the 88 industry level. These industries can b The engineering sector Investor in other property 4.3 in Taranaki has an split into two broad groups: metal product manufacturing; and machinery and equipme employment multiplier and fruit grow ing 4.0 of 1.52. For every new Table 3.13 shows the Horticulture contribution of the manufacturing. vehicle retailing and services 3.9 FTE created in the industry, a further 0.52 FTEs are engineering sector toMotor the Taranaki economy and to Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates created within the region. Table 3.13 shows the contribution of the engineering sector to the Taranaki economy and to th the national engineering sector in 2013.
national engineering sector in 2013.
Close to four-fifths of the livestock and cropping feedsofinto meat processing Table 3.14farming presentsindustry the make-up thethe Taranaki The sector employed 2,996 FTEs in 2013, or 5.9 sector. Two-fifths of other farming outputs are also absorbed by meat processing, engineering sector’s inputs and outputs. It alsoalong with 16 percent of all regional employment. Engineering in Table 3.13 Taranaki engineering sector percent of road transport. Water and rail transport; to agriculture, and trapping; and shows theservices sector’s contribution to hunting each category of Taranaki produced $317 million in GDP (4.8 percent plastics product manufacturing each contribute at leastand 10outputs. percent of%their outputs to the meat regional inputs of national of the regional figure) through 266 businesses (1.8 % of regional engineering Taranaki engineering sector Total processing sector. percent of the region’s businesses). Employment (FTEs)
2,996
5.9
4.5
3.5 Engineering Seen in a national light, Taranaki provided 4.5 sector Business units 266 1.8 3.1 percent of all engineering employment through The engineering sector consists of seven industries the regional 88 industry level. TheseNZindustries can be Source:at BERL database, Statistics 3.1 percent of engineering businesses. It also split into two broad groups:GDP. metal product manufacturing; and machinery and equipment contributed 4.5 percent of national engineering The sector employed 2,996 FTEs in 2013, or 5.9 percent of all regional employment. Engineering GDP ($mn)
317
4.8
4.5
manufacturing. Taranaki produced $317 million in GDP (4.8 percent of the regional figure) through 266 businesse Table 3.13 shows of thethe contribution of the engineering sector to the Taranaki economy and to the (1.8 percent region’s businesses). national engineering sector in 2013. Seen in a national light,Taranaki Taranakiengineering provided 4.5 percent of all engineering employment through 3 Table 3.13 sector percent of engineering businesses. Table 3.13 Taranaki engineering sector It also contributed 4.5 percent of national engineering GDP.
Engineering is expected to see strong employment growth% of over the next 23 years. Coupled wi national % of regional Total growth, the sector’s contribution toengineering GDP should grow solidly out to 203 Employment (FTEs) 2,996 5.9are introduced in Section 4.5 More detail on likely rises in employment and GDP 4.
Taranaki engineering sector good labour productivity GDP ($mn)
317
4.8
4.5
The engineering Business units
sector in Taranaki has an employment multiplier 3.1 of 1.52. For every new FT 266 1.8 created in the industry, a further 0.52 FTEs are created within the region. Source: BERL regional database, Statistics NZ
Tableemployed 3.14 presents make-up engineering inputs Engineering and outputs.in It als The sector 2,996 the FTEs in 2013,oforthe 5.9Taranaki percent of all regionalsector’s employment. shows the sector’s contribution to each categoryofofthe regional inputs andthrough outputs.266 businesses Taranaki produced $317 million in GDP (4.8 percent regional figure) (1.8 percent of the region’s businesses). Seen in a national light, Taranaki provided 4.5 percent of all engineering employment through 3.1 Industrybusinesses. Projections It also contributed 4.5 percent of national engineering GDP. 24percentTaranaki of engineering
28
Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036 Engineering is expected to see strong employment growth over the next 23 years. Coupled with
Taranaki Industry Projections
Table 3.14 Taranaki engineering sector total inputs and outputs Table 3.14 Taranaki engineering sector total inputs and outputs Taranaki engineering sector Inputs Inputs from other Taranaki industries Imports Labour Other inputs Outputs Outputs to other Taranaki industries Exports Household and government consumption Other outputs
% of sector
% of regional
24.9 40.6 24.6 9.9
0.6 3.8 6.1 2.1
Taranaki Industry Projection 24.1 0.6 56.0 5.2 3.2 0.6 16.7 5.4 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
Table 3.14 Taranaki engineering sector inputs and outputs The engineering sector imports 41 percent of total its inputs from outside the region, accounting for 3.8 percent of all Taranaki imports. Around 25 percent of the engineering sector’s inputs are in the form Taranaki engineering sector % of sector % of regional of labour, Inputs which equates to 6.1 percent of all labour inputs in Taranaki. Industries within the region The engineering sector draws 6.9 percent of its The engineering sector imports 41 percent of its from of other 24.9 0.6 provide 25Inputs percent theTaranaki inputsindustries required by the engineering sector.
inputs from the structural 40.6 sheet and fabricated inputs from outside Imports the region, accounting for 3.8 3.8 metal product manufacturing industry. The equates percent ofAlmost all Taranaki imports. Around 25 percent 56Labour percent of the engineering sector’s outputs are exported from 24.6 Taranaki, which to 6.1 petroleum, metal andsector’s chemical wholesaling industry of the engineering sector’s inputs arefrom in the of Around Other inputs 9.9outputs 2.1 5.2 percent of all exports theform region. 24 percent of the are absorbed by supplies the next most, at 2.8 percent. Electricity labour, which equates to 6.1 percent of all labour Outputs other industries in the region. Outputs to other Taranaki industries 24.1 of inputs, while 0.6 generation supplies 2.2 percent inputs in Taranaki. Industries within the region Exports 56.0 5.2 metal manufacturing supplies 1.7 percent. provide 25Table percent of the inputs required by the 3.15 presents the top-ten industries bybasic contribution to the engineering sector inputs in Household and government consumption 3.2 0.6 engineering sector. Taranaki. Other outputs 16.7 5.4 The ten industries which provide the most inputs to Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates the Engineering sector together provide 18 percent Almost 56Table percent of the engineering sector’s major input industries 3.15 Taranaki engineering the sectors outputs are exported from Taranaki, which equates The engineering sector imports 41 percentofofallitsofinputs from inputs. outside the region, accounting for 3.8 to 5.2 percent of all exports from the region. percent of all Taranakisector imports. Around 25 percent of the engineering sector’s inputs are in the form Taranaki % of sector inputs Table 3.16 presents the industry’s most reliant on Around 24 percent of theengineering sector’s outputs are of labour, which equates to 6.1 metal percent of all labour inputs in Taranaki. 1 Structural sheet and fabricated product manufacturing 6.9 Industries within the region the engineering sector in terms of the portion of absorbed by other industries in the region. 2 metalof and chemical holesaling by the engineering sector. providePetroleum, 25 percent the inputswrequired their total output contributed2.8to the engineering 3 Electricity generation and supply 2.2 sector in Taranaki. Table 3.15 presents the top-ten industries by Almost 56 percent of the engineering sector’s outputs are exported from 4 Basic metal manufacturing 1.7 Taranaki, which equates to contribution to55.2 thepercent engineering inputs Financeof allsector 0.9 exports frominthe region. Around 24 percent of the sector’s outputs are absorbed by Taranaki. 6 Mining and quarrying 0.8 other industries in the region.
7 Road transport 0.8 8 Machinery and equipment w holesaling Table 3.15 presents the top-ten industries by contribution to the 0.8 engineering 9 Printing, publishing and recorded media 0.6 Taranaki. 10 Other business services 0.6 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates Table 3.15 Taranaki engineering major input industries
sector inputs in
Table 3.15 Taranaki engineering major input industries The engineering sector draws 6.9 percent of its inputs from the structural sheet and fabricated metal product manufacturing industry. The petroleum, metal and chemical wholesaling industry supplies Taranaki engineering sector % of sector inputs the next most, atStructural 2.8 percent. Electricity 2.2 percent of inputs, 1 sheet and fabricated generation metal productsupplies manufacturing 6.9 while basic metal 2 Petroleum,1.7 metal and chemical w holesaling 2.8 manufacturing supplies percent. 3
Electricity generation and supply
2.2
The ten industries provide the most inputs to the Engineering sector 1.7 together provide 18 4 Basicwhich metal manufacturing 0.9 percent of5 all of Finance the sectors inputs. 6
Mining and quarrying
0.8
Table 3.16 the industry’s most reliant on the engineering sector in terms 7 presents Road transport 0.8 of the portion of and equipment w holesalingsector in Taranaki. 0.8 their total 8outputMachinery contributed to the engineering 9 10
Printing, publishing and recorded media Other business services
0.6 0.6 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
The engineering sector draws 6.9 percent of its inputs from the structural sheet and fabricated metal product manufacturing industry. The petroleum, metal and chemical wholesaling industry supplies the next most, at 2.8 percent. Electricity generation supplies 2.2 percent of inputs, while basic metal 3 Taranaki’s key sectors manufacturing supplies 1.7 percent. The ten industries which provide the most inputs to the Engineering sector together provide 1829 percent of all of the sectors inputs.
25
Table 3.16 Taranaki industries reliant on engineering Table 3.16 Taranaki industries reliant on engineering % of industry output going to Taranaki engineering sector Structural sheet and fabricated metal product manufacturing 19.8 Petroleum, metal and chemical w holesaling 10.8 Basic metal manufacturing 7.5 Plastic product manufacturing 6.9 Ship, boat and other transport equipment manufacturing 6.8 Photographic and scientific equipment manufacturing 5.9 Printing, publishing and recorded media 5.7 Personal and household goods reliant w holesaling 5.7 Table 3.16 Taranaki industries on engineering Motor vehicle w holesaling 5.6 Electricity generation and supply 5.6 % of industry output going to Taranaki engineering sector Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates Structural sheet and fabricated metal product manufacturing 19.8 Petroleum, metal and chemical w holesaling The engineering sector absorbs outputs from a wide variety of 10.8 industries, but no one industry is Basic metalon manufacturing 7.5 structural sheet and fabricated dependent engineering to absorb the bulk of its production. The Plastic product manufacturing 6.9 The engineering sector absorbs outputs from a industries); printing, publishing recorded metal product manufacturing industry supplies 20 percent of its outputand to the engineering sector in Ship, boat and other transport equipment manufacturing 6.8 manufacturing wide variety of industries, but no one industry is media (one industry); chemical Taranaki. Around 11 percent petroleum, metal and chemical wholesaling feeds into the engineering Photographic and scientific equipment manufacturing 5.9 dependent on engineering to absorb the bulk of (four industries); non-metallic mineral product Printing, and recorded media 5.7 sector as publishing well. its production. The structural sheet and fabricated manufacturing (one industry); and manufacturing Personal and household goods w holesaling 5.7 metal product manufacturing industry supplies 20 not elsewhere classified (three industries). Motor vehicle w holesaling 5.6 percent of its outputElectricity to the engineering sector in generation and supply 5.6 Taranaki. Around 11 percent petroleum, metal and Table BERL, 3.17 shows the contribution of the other Source: Butcher & Associates The other manufacturing sector as defined in this section of the report includes 16 industries at the
3.6
Other manufacturing sector
chemical wholesaling feeds into the engineering manufacturing sector to the Taranaki economy 88engineering industry level. It does not include dairy manufacturing, meat processing, andindustry engineering, sector absorbs outputs from a wide variety of industries, but no one is sector as well. The andproduct nationally in 2013. 5
which areon dealt with separately, but the does include food processing. dependent engineering to absorb bulk of itsother production. The structural sheet and fabricated The other manufacturing sector around 3.6 Other manufacturing sector metal product manufacturing industry supplies 20 percent of its output to employed the engineering sector in The sector includes all other food manufacturing (two industries); textile, clothing, footwear and 2,082 FTEs in Taranaki in 2013, or 4.1 percent of all The other manufacturing as petroleum, Taranaki. Aroundsector 11 percent wholesaling feeds into the engineering leather manufacturing (two industries);metal woodand andchemical paper product manufacturing (three industries); regional employment. These FTEs produced $394 sector as well. defined in this section of the report printing, publishing and recorded media (one industry); chemical manufacturing (four industries);
million in GDP (5.9 percent of the regional GDP) includes 16 industries the 88 industry non-metallicat mineral product manufacturing industry); (1.8 and percent manufacturing not elsewhere through(one 268 businesses of regional 3.6 Other manufacturing sector classified (three industries). level. businesses). The other3.17 manufacturing sector as defined this section of the report 16 industries at the Table shows the contribution of theinother manufacturing sectorincludes to the Taranaki economy and
It does not include dairy product manufacturing, supplied 1.9 percent of all other and engineering, 88 industry level. It does not include dairy Taranaki product manufacturing, meat processing, in 2013. meat processing, nationally and engineering, which are manufacturing employment in 5 New Zealand, which are separately, but does include other food processing. dealt with separately, butdealt doeswith include other food contributing 2.2 percent of national other Table 3.17 Taranaki other manufacturing sector processing. The sector includes all other food manufacturing manufacturing The region hadclothing, 2.1 percent (two GDP. industries); textile, footwear and of all other manufacturing businesses in New % of national other leather manufacturing (two industries); wood and paper product manufacturing (three industries); The sector includes all other food manufacturing % of regional manufacturing Taranaki other m anufacturing sector Total Zealand. printing, publishing and recorded media (one industry); chemical manufacturing (four industries); (two industries); textile, clothing,(FTEs) footwear Employment 2,082 4.1 1.9 non-metallic mineral product manufacturing (one industry); and manufacturing not elsewhere and leather manufacturing (two industries); GDP ($mn) 394 5.9 2.2 classified (three industries). wood and paper product manufacturing (three Business units 268 1.8 2.1
BERL regional database, NZ Table 3.17 shows the contribution of the Source: other manufacturing sector Statistics to the Taranaki economy and nationally in 2013. The other manufacturing sector employed around 2,082 FTEs in Taranaki in 2013, or 4.1 percent of Table 3.17 Taranaki other manufacturing sector all regional employment. These FTEs produced Table 3.17 Taranaki other manufacturing sector $394 million in GDP (5.9 percent of the regional GDP) through 268 businesses (1.8 percent of regional businesses).
Taranaki supplied 1.9 percent other manufacturing % of regional Taranaki other m anufacturing sectorof all Total
% of national other employment in New manufacturing
Zealand, contributing 2.2Employment percent (FTEs) of national other manufacturing GDP.4.1 The region had1.92.1 percent of all other 2,082 GDP ($mn) 394 5.9 2.2 manufacturing businesses in New Zealand. Business units 5
268
1.8
2.1
Source: regional database, Statistics NZ Note that this is slightly different from in the 19BERL industry analysis, where other manufacturing excludes all food processing.
The other manufacturing sector employed around 2,082 FTEs in Taranaki in 2013, or 4.1 percent of all regional employment. These FTEs produced $394 million in GDP (5.9 percent of the regional Taranaki Industry Projections(1.8 percent of regional businesses). GDP) through 268 businesses
Note that this is slightly different from in the 19 industry analysis, where other manufacturing excludes all food processing.
5
26
30
Taranaki supplied 1.9 percent of all other manufacturing Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036 employment in New Zealand, contributing 2.2 percent of national other manufacturing GDP. The region had 2.1 percent of all other
More detail on likely rises in employment and GDP are introduced in section 4. The employment multiplier for other manufacturing in Taranaki is 1.73. For every FTE created in the other manufacturing sector, 0.73 FTEs are created in related industries in the region.
Table 3.18 presents the make-up of the Taranaki other manufacturing sector’s inputs and outputs. It also shows the sector’s contribution to each category of regional inputs and outputs. Taranaki Industry Proje
Table 3.18 Taranaki other manufacturing sector total inputs and outputs
Table 3.18 Taranaki other manufacturing sector total inputs and outputs
Taranaki other m anufacturing sector % of sector % of regional Inputs Inputs from other Taranaki industries 26.2 0.6 Imports 38.7 Employment in the sector is expected to rise slightly faster than overall3.4 Taranaki employment out to Labour 19.9 4.7 2036. Along with modest labour productivity increases, this should result in robust GDP growth. Other inputs 15.2 2.6 More detail on likely rises in employment and GDP are introduced in section 4. Outputs Outputs to other Taranaki industries The employment multiplier for other manufacturing in30.7 Taranaki is 1.73. 0.7 For every FTE created in the Exports 58.3 5.1 other manufacturing sector, 0.73 FTEs are created in related industries in Household and government consumption 8.0 1.3the region. Other outputs 2.9 0.9 Table 3.18 presents the make-up of the Taranaki other manufacturing sector’s inputs and outputs. It Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
also shows the sector’s contribution to each category of regional inputs and outputs. The sector imports 39 percent of inputs from outside the Taranaki region. These imports account for Table Taranaki other manufacturing inputs andfrom outputs 3.4 percent of 3.18 all Taranaki imports. Meanwhile, 26 sector percenttotal of inputs come industries within the region. Taranaki other m anufacturing sector % of sector % of regional
Labour makes up 20 percent of all inputs in the Employment in the sector isInputs expected to rise slightly Labour makes up 20 percent of all inputs in the other manufacturing sector. This is 4.6 percent of all Inputs from other Taranaki industries 26.2 This is 4.6 percent 0.6 of all other manufacturing sector. faster than overall Taranaki employment out to labour inputs in Taranaki. Imports 38.7 3.4 labour inputs in Taranaki. 2036. Along with modest labour productivity Labour 19.9 increases, thisMore should result robustof GDP growth. in the other manufacturing sector is exported out 4.7 than 58 in percent production of the region. Other inputs 15.2 2.6 More than 58 percent of production in the other More detail on likely rises in employment andpercent GDP of Taranaki These exports represent 5.1 exports. The sector supplies 31 percent of its Outputs out of the 0.7 region. are introduced in section 4.Outputs to other Taranaki industries manufacturing sector is exported 30.7 outputs to industries in the region. These exports represent 58.3 5.1 percent of Taranaki Exports 5.1 exports. The sector supplies 31 percent ofsector its1.3 inputs in The employment multiplier for other manufacturing Table 3.19 presents top ten industries by contribution to other 8.0 manufacturing Household the and government consumption outputs to industries in the in Taranaki is 1.73. For every FTEoutputs created in the Other 2.9region. 0.9 Taranaki. other manufacturing sector, 0.73 FTEs are created in Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates Table 3.19 presents the top ten industries by related industries in 3.19 the region. Table Taranaki other manufacturing major input industries The sector imports 39 percent of inputs from outside the Taranaki region.sector These imports contribution to other manufacturing inputs in account for 3.4make-up percentof ofthe all Taranaki Taranaki imports. Taranaki. Meanwhile, 26 percent of inputs come from industries within the Table 3.18 presents the Taranakisector’s other minputs anufacturing sector % of sector inputs other manufacturing and outputs. region. Wood product manufacturing 4.1 The other manufacturing sector received inputs It also shows the sector’s contribution to each Forestry & forestry services 2.7 Labour makes up 20 percent of all inputs in the other manufacturing sector.4.1 This is 4.6 percent of all from a variety of sources. This includes percent category of regional inputs and outputs. Road transport 1.9 labour inputs in Taranaki. of inputs from wood product manufacturing, 2.7 Oil and gas exploration and extraction 1.1 frommanufacturing forestry 1.9 out of the region. The sector importsGas 39More percent of 58 inputs from of production percent supplythan 0.9 and forestry percent in the other sectorservices, is exported percent from road0.9 transport, and 1.1 percent from outside the Taranaki region. These imports account Motor vehicle retailing and services These exports represent 5.1 percent of Taranaki exports. The sector supplies 31 percent of its oil and gas exploration for 3.4 percent of all Taranaki imports. Electricity generation andMeanwhile, supply 0.8 and extraction. outputs to industries in the region. Other business 0.8 26 percent of inputs come from services industries within Petroleum, metal and chemical w holesaling 0.8 the region. Table 3.19 presents the top ten industries by contribution to other manufacturing sector inputs in Printing, publishing and recorded media 0.8 Taranaki. Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
Table 3.19 Taranaki other manufacturing major input industries
Table 3.19 Taranaki other manufacturing major input industries
Taranaki other m anufacturing sector % of sector inputs Wood product manufacturing 4.1 Forestry & forestry services 2.7 3 Taranaki’s Road transport 1.9 Oil and gas exploration and extraction 1.1 Gas supply 0.9 Motor vehicle retailing and services 0.9 Electricity generation and supply 0.8 Other business services 0.8 Petroleum, metal and chemical w holesaling 0.8 Printing, publishing and recorded media 0.8 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
key sectors
31
The other manufacturing sector received inputs from a variety of sources. This includes 4.1 perce of inputs from wood product manufacturing, 2.7 percent from forestry and forestry services, 1 percent from road transport, and 1.1 percent from oil and gas exploration and extraction.
Table 3.20 presents the industry’s most reliant on the other manufacturing sector in terms of th portion of their total output contributed to the sector in Taranaki.
Table 3.20 Taranaki industries reliant on other manufacturing
Table 3.20 Taranaki industries reliant on other manufacturing % of industry output going to Taranaki other m anufacturing sector Forestry & forestry services 28.5 Fishing 22.0 Wood product manufacturing 15.3 Road transport 7.8 Plastic product manufacturing 6.5 Printing, publishing and recorded media 6.5 Builders supplies w holesaling 5.6 Water and rail transport 5.5 Rubber product manufacturing 5.3 Non-metallic mineral product manufacturing 4.8 manufacturing sector received inputs from a variety of sources. Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
The other This includes 4.1 percent of inputs from wood product manufacturing, 2.7 percent from forestry and forestry services, 1.9 percent The fromother road manufacturing transport, and 1.1 percent from oil and gas exploration and extraction. sector is particularly important to the forestry and forestry services industr which contributes 28.6 percent of all its outputs to the sector in Taranaki, and the fishing indust Table 3.20 presents the industry’s most reliant on the other manufacturing sector in terms of the which contributes 22 percent of its outputs to the sector. Industries that rely on other manufacturin portion their totalmost output contributed to the sector Taranaki. Table 3.20 presents theofindustry’s reliant on Table 3.21inshows the contribution of the education tosector absorbinlarge include economy wood product the other manufacturing termsportions of the of their production sector to also the Taranaki and tomanufacturing the national (15.3 percen and road transport (7.8 percent). 3.20 Taranaki industries other manufacturing portion of theirTable total output contributed to the reliant oneducation sector in 2013.
sector in Taranaki.
3.7 output Education sector educationsector sector employed around 3,221 FTEs % of industry going to Taranaki other mThe anufacturing The other manufacturing sector is particularly in Taranaki in 2013, accounting for 6.3 percent of all Forestry & forestry services 28.5 The education sector is made up ofregional three industries at the 88 industry level. The industries are pr employment. important to the forestry and forestry services Fishing 22.0 The sector contributed $160 school, and secondary education, post-school education, and other education. industry, which contributes 28.6primary percent of all million in GDP through Wood product manufacturing 15.3 286 units. This represented of the region’s and Taranaki 2.0 percent of its outputs to the sector intransport Taranaki, and thethe contribution2.4ofpercent Road 7.8 Table 3.21 shows the education sectorGDP to the economy and to th Plastic product manufacturing 6.5 fishing industry which contributes 22 percent of all units in the region. national education sector in 2013. Printing, publishingthat and recorded 6.5 its outputs to the sector. Industries rely on media Builders supplies w holesaling 5.6 sector provided 2.2 percent other manufacturing toTable absorb3.21 largeTaranaki portionseducation sector The Taranaki education Water and rail transport 5.5 of their production also include wood product of national education employment, through 2.8 Rubber product manufacturing 5.3 manufacturing (15.3Non-metallic percent); and road transport percent of national education units. The region % of national mineral product manufacturing 4.8 % of percent regional of nationaleducation Taranaki education sector Total (7.8 percent). contributed 2.2 education sector Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates Employment (FTEs) 3,221 6.3 2.2 GDP.
GDP ($mn) 160 2.4 2.2 The other manufacturing sector is particularly important to the forestry and forestry services industry, Activity28.6 units percent of all its outputs 286 to the sector 2.0 3.7 Education sector which contributes in Taranaki, and the2.8fishing industry Source: BERL regional database, Statistics NZ The education sector is made up of three which contributes 22 percent of its outputs to the sector. Industries that rely on other manufacturing industries attothe 88The industry level. absorb large portions of their production also include woodinproduct manufacturing (15.3 percent); education sector employed around 3,221 FTEs Taranaki in 2013, accounting for 6.3 perce and roadoftransport (7.8 percent). all regional employment. The sector contributed $160 million in GDP through 286 units. Th
The industries are pre-school, primary and represented 2.4 percent of the region’s GDP and 2.0 percent of all units in the region. secondary education, education, and 3.7 post-school Education sector other education. The Taranaki education sector provided 2.2 percent of national education employment, through 2
The education is made up of three at the 88 industry Theofindustries are pre- sect percentsector of national education units.industries The region contributed 2.2level. percent national education school, primary and secondary education, post-school education, and other education. GDP. Table 3.21 shows the contribution of the education sector to the Taranaki economy and to the national education sector in 2013.
Table 3.21 Taranaki education sector
Table 3.21 Taranaki education sector 28
% of regional
% of national education
Taranaki Industry Projections
Taranaki education sector
Total
Employment (FTEs)
3,221
6.3
2.2
GDP ($mn)
160
2.4
2.2
Activity units
286
2.0
2.8
Source: BERL regional database, Statistics NZ
32
The education sector employed around 3,221 FTEs in Taranaki in 2013, accounting for 6.3 percent of all regional employment. The sector contributed $160 million in GDP through 286 units. This represented 2.4 percent of the region’s GDP and 2.0 percent of all units in the region. Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
The Taranaki education sector provided 2.2 percent of national education employment, through 2.8
the education sector, 0.19 further FTEs are added in other industries. The multiplier is relatively low compared to the other key industries discussed in this section. This is because most of the education-related employment is already captured within the education sector.
Table 3.22 presents the make-up of the Taranaki education sector’s inputs and outputs. It also Taranaki Industry Proj shows the sector’s contribution to each category of regional inputs and outputs.
Table 3.22 Taranaki education sector total inputs and outputs
Table 3.22 Taranaki education sector total inputs and outputs
Taranaki education sector % of sector % of regional Inputs InputsEmployment from other Taranaki industries is likely to rise at a steady 12.8 rate over the next 0.1 23 years. Slight gains in in education Imports 14.8 0.5 labour productivity will see the sector’s GDP growth averaging just below national GDP growth to Labour 64.8 5.5 2036. More detail on likely rises in employment and GDP are introduced in section 4. Other inputs 7.6 1.0 Outputs The education sector in Taranaki has an employment multiplier of 1.19. For every one FTE added to Outputs to other Taranaki industries 5.9 0.1 the education sector, 0.19 further FTEs are added in other industries. 0.5 The multiplier is relatively low Exports 15.9 compared to the other key industries discussed in this section. This is because most of the Household and government consumption 77.8 4.6 Othereducation-related outputs 0.4 0.0 employment is already captured within the education sector. Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
Table 3.22 presents the make-up of the Taranaki education sector’s inputs and outputs. It also As this isshows a sector is built around teaching and support staff, it inputs is no surprise that labour inputs thewhich sector’s contribution to each category of regional and outputs. (salaries) provides the bulk (65 percent) of the inputs into the sector. This income accounts for 5.5 3.22 inputs Taranaki education percent ofTable all labour in the region. sector total inputs and outputs
EmploymentAround in education is likely to rise at a steady this is afrom sector which is built around teaching Taranaki education sector % of sector % ofregion, regionalthe lowest 15 percent of education inputs are As imported outside the Taranaki rate over theproportion next 23 years. Slight gains in labour and support staff, it is no surprise that labour inputs Inputs among the key sectors analysed in this section. This equates to just 0.5 percent of total productivity will see the sector’s growth (65 percent) of the Inputs GDP from other Taranaki industries (salaries) provides the bulk 12.8 0.1 Taranaki imports. Imports 14.8 averaging just below national GDP growth to 2036. inputs into the sector. This income accounts 0.5 for 5.5 Labour 64.8 5.5 More detail on likely rises in employment and GDP percent of all labour inputs in the region. On the other hand, as much as 16 percent of the sector’s outputs are exported, accounting for 0.5 inputs 7.6 1.0 are introduced in section 4. Other percent of all Taranaki exports. Government and households in the region consume over threeOutputs Around 15 percent of education inputs are imported quarters of theOutputs sector’s outputs. to other Taranaki industries 5.9 0.1 The education sector in Taranaki has an employment from outside the Taranaki15.9 region, the lowest 0.5 Exports 3.23every presents theand topgovernment tentoindustries by proportion contributionamong to education sector in Taranaki. multiplier of Table 1.19. For one FTE added the consumption the key77.8 sectorsinputs analysed in4.6this Household education sector, 0.19 further FTEs are added in section. This equates to just Other outputs 0.40.5 percent of total 0.0 Table 3.23 Taranaki education industries other industries. The multiplier is relatively lowmajor input Taranaki imports. Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates compared to the other key industries discussed in As thismost is a of sector which is built around teaching and support staff, it percent is no surprise this section. This is because the educationOn the other hand, as much as 16 of the that labour inputs Taranaki education sector % of sector inputs provideswithin the bulk of outputs the inputs the sector. This income related employment is(salaries) already captured the (65 percent) sector’s areinto exported, accounting for 0.5 accounts for 5.5 Other business services 1.3 education sector. Electricity percent of all Taranaki exports. Government and percent of all labour inputs in the region. generation and supply 1.0 households in the1.0region consume over threeNon-residential building construction 15ofpercent of education inputs are of imported fromoutputs. outside the Taranaki region, the lowes Table 3.22 presents theAround make-up the Taranaki quarters the sector’s Communication services 0.6 proportion among the key sectors analysed in this section. This equates to just 0.5 percent of tota education sector’sOther inputs and outputs. It also education 0.6 Taranaki imports. and accounting services 0.5 the top ten industries by shows the sector’sLegal contribution to each category of Table 3.23 presents estate 0.4 regional inputs andReal outputs. contribution to education sector inputs in Taranaki. On the other hand, as much as 16 percent of the sector’s outputs Petroleum, metal and chemical w holesaling 0.4 of all and Taranaki households in Motorpercent vehicle retailing servicesexports. Government and 0.4 Printing, publishing and recorded 0.4 quarters of the sector’smedia outputs. Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
are exported, accounting for 0.5 the region consume over three
Table 3.23 presents the top ten industries by contribution to education sector inputs in Taranaki.
3.23 Taranaki education major input industries TableTable 3.23 Taranaki education major input industries 3 Taranaki’s key sectors Taranaki education sector % of sector inputs Other business services 1.3 Electricity generation and supply 1.0 Non-residential building construction 1.0 Communication services 0.6 Other education 0.6 Legal and accounting services 0.5 Real estate 0.4 Petroleum, metal and chemical w holesaling 0.4 Motor vehicle retailing and services 0.4 Printing, publishing and recorded media 0.4 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
33 3 Taranaki’s key sectors
in Taranaki, with electricity generation providing 1.0 percent of all education sector inputs i Taranaki. Various business, personal and community services round out the top ten suppl industries, which together supply 6.6 percent of all the sector’s inputs.
Table 3.24 presents the industry’s most reliant on the education sector in terms of the portion of the total output contributed to the education sector in Taranaki.
Table 3.24 Taranaki industries reliant on education
Table 3.24 Taranaki industries reliant on education % of industry output going to Taranaki education sector
Other education 2.6 Libraries, museum and the arts 2.0 Other business services 1.6 Other manufacturing nec 1.4 Printing, publishing and recorded media 1.3 Religious organisations and interest groups 1.2 Legal and accounting services 1.0 The education sector draws on a wide range of industries for its inputs, with the result that no single Sport and recreation 1.0 industry dominates its inputs. Other business services provide 1.3 percent of education sector inputs General Insurance 0.9 in Taranaki,Non-residential with electricity generation all education sector inputs in building construction providing 1.0 percent of 0.9 BERL, Butcherservices & Associates Taranaki. Various business, personalSource: and community round out the top ten supply
industries, which together supply 6.6 percent of all the sector’s inputs. It is worth noting that no single industry contributes more than three percent of its total output to th education sector. Other education supplies 2.6education percent of its output to the education Table 3.24 presents the industry’s most reliant on the sector in terms of the portion sector, of their while percent of libraries, museum andsector the arts feeds into education. total output contributed to the education in output Taranaki.
3.8 Public sector The education sector draws on a wide range of industries for itsTable inputs, with the result that no this report, the public sector is made 3.24 industries reliant onIn education 3.8Taranaki Public sector single industry dominates its inputs. Other business up of six industries at the 88 industry services provide 1.3 percent ofreport, education sectorsector is made up of six industries at the 88 industry level. These industrie In thisoutput the public % of industry going to Taranaki education sector level. inputs in Taranaki, withcan electricity generation be grouped into three broad categories. The categories are health services (three industries education 2.6 providing 1.0 percentOther of all education sector industries can2.0begovernment grouped into(two three broad community services (one industry) These and local and central industries). Education i Libraries, museum and the arts inputs in Taranaki. Various business, personal and categories. The categories are health services (three excluded as this is dealt with separately. 1.6 community services Other roundbusiness out theservices top ten supply industries), community Other manufacturing nec 1.4 services (one industry) industries, which together supply percent of media all Table 3.25 6.6 shows the contribution ofand thelocal public togovernment the Taranaki(two economy and its portion of th Printing, publishing and recorded 1.3 andsector central industries). the sector’s inputs. Religious national public sector in 2013. organisations and interest groups 1.2 as this is dealt with separately. Education is excluded Legal and accounting services
1.0
Table 3.24 presents the industry’s reliant on sector Table 3.25 shows the Sport and recreation 1.0 Table 3.25 most Taranaki public contribution of the public Insurance 0.9 the education sectorGeneral in terms of the portion of their sector to the Taranaki economy and its portion of % of national public Non-residential building construction 0.9 total output contributed to the education sector in the national public sector in 2013. of regional sector Taranaki public sector Source: BERL,Total Butcher &% Associates Taranaki. Employment (FTEs)
6,631
13.0
2.2
The519 publicmore sector in Taranaki employed 6,631 It is worth noting that no single industry contributes than three percent of its totalFTEs output to the GDPindustry ($mn) 7.8 2.2 It is worth noting that no single contributes in 2013, or 13 percent of all regional employment. education sector. education 2.6 to the education Activity units 606percent of its output 4.2 2.5 sector, while 2 more than three percent of its totalOther output to the suppliesThese FTEsBERL produced $519 millionStatistics in GDPNZ (7.8 percent of libraries, museum and the arts output feeds into education. Source: regional database, education sector. Other education supplies 2.6
percent of regional GDP) through 606 units (4.1 percent of its output to the education sector, while percent of6,631 regional units). The public sector in Taranaki employed FTEs in 2013, or 13 percent of all regiona 3.8 museum Public sector 2 percent of libraries, and the arts output employment. These FTEs produced $519 million in GDP (7.8 percent of regional GDP) through 60 feeds into education. At a national level, Taranaki provided 2.2 percent
In this report, the percent public sector is made up of six industries at the 88 industry level. These industries units (4.1 of regional units). of public sector GDP are through 2.2services percent of public can be grouped into three broad categories. The categories health (three industries), At a national level, Taranaki provided 2.2 percent of public sector GDP through 2.2 percent of publi sector employment at 2.5 percent of public sector community services (one industry) and local and central government (two industries). Education is sector employment at 2.5 percent ofunits. public sector units. excluded as this is dealt with separately.
Table 3.25 shows the contribution of the public sector to the Taranaki economy and its portion of the national public sector in 2013.
Table 3.25 Taranaki public sector Taranaki Industry Projections 30Table 3.25 Taranaki public sector Taranaki public sector
Total
% of regional
% of national public sector
Employment (FTEs)
6,631
13.0
2.2
GDP ($mn)
519
7.8
2.2
Activity units
606
4.2
2.5
Source: BERL regional database, Statistics NZ
The public sector in Taranaki employed 6,631 FTEs in 2013, or 13 percent of all regional employment. These FTEs produced $519 million in GDP (7.8 percent of regional GDP) through 606 units (4.1 percent of regional units).
34
Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036 At a national level, Taranaki provided 2.2 percent of public sector GDP through 2.2 percent of public
The public sector in Taranaki has an employment multiplier of 1.43. For every one FTE added to the public sector, 0.43 further FTEs are added in other industries. While this multiplier is higher than for the education sector on its own, it is still lower than the other industries discussed in this section. Table 3.26 presents the make-up of the Taranaki public sector’s inputs and outputs. It also shows the sector’s contribution to each category of regional inputs and outputs.
Table 3.26public Taranaki public sector total inputs and outputs Table 3.26 Taranaki sector total inputs and outputs
Taranaki public sector % of sector % of regional Taranaki Industry Pro Inputs Inputs from other Taranaki industries 20.7 0.6 Imports 20.2 2.0 Labour 46.0 12.0 Other inputs 13.1 3.7 Outputs Outputs to other Taranaki industries 13.7 0.4 Moderate growth in employment in the public sector is likely to 2036. Lower than average labo Exports 8.5 0.8 productivity gains consumption are expected to result in GDP increases below the13.9 regional and national average Household and government 75.4 4. Other More outputsdetail on likely rises in employment and GDP are 2.4 introduced in section 0.8 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
The public sector in Taranaki has an employment multiplier of 1.43. For every one FTE added to th Labour accounts for 46 0.43 percent of allFTEs public sector inputs in Taranaki. relatively large sizeisof the than f public sector, further are added in other industries.The While this multiplier higher sector ensures that it represents 12 percent of all labour inputs in the region. the education sector on its own, it is still lower than the other industries discussed in this section.
Around one-fifth of the sector’s come fromTaranaki industries in the region, withand another one-fifth Table 3.26 presents theinputs make-up of the public sector’s inputs outputs. It also show Moderate growth in employment infrom the public Around ofinputs the sector’s inputs come imports. from coming from outside the region, accounting for 2.0 percent total regional the imports sector’s contribution to each category ofone-fifth regional andofoutputs.
sector is likely to 2036. Lower than average labour industries in the region, with another one-fifth Three-quarters sector’s are consumed within theoutputs region, while 8.5 percent of outputs productivity gains are expected tothe result in GDPoutputs coming from imports from outside the region, Table of 3.26 Taranaki public sector total inputs and are exported. These exports equate to 0.8 percent of all exports from Taranaki. increases below the regional and national averages. accounting for 2.0 percent of total regional imports. Taranaki public sector % of sector % of regional More detail on likely rises in employment and GDP Table 3.27 presents Inputsthe top ten industries by contribution to public sector inputs in Taranaki. are introduced in section 4. Three-quarters of the sector’s outputs are Inputs from other Taranaki industries 20.7 0.6 consumed within the region, while 8.5 percent2.0of Table 3.27 Taranaki Imports public sector major input industries 20.2 The public sector in TaranakiLabour has an employment outputs are exported. These to 0.8 46.0exports equate 12.0 multiplier of 1.43. For every Other one FTE added to the percent of all exports from13.1 Taranaki. inputs 3.7 public sector, Taranaki 0.43 further FTEs are added in other public sector % of sector inputs Outputs Health and Dental 2.4the top13.7 industries. While this multiplier isServices higher for industries Table 3.27 presents ten industries by 0.4 Outputs to otherthan Taranaki Community care services 1.6 sector Exports 8.5 0.8 the education sector on its own, it is still lower than contribution to public inputs in Taranaki. Other business 1.5 Household and government consumption 75.4 13.9 the other industries discussed inservices this section. Legal and accounting services 1.1 Other outputs 2.4 As was the case with the education sector, the0.8 Real estate 0.9 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates Table 3.26 presentsCommunication the make-upservices of the Taranaki public sector draws on a wide range of industries 0.8 public sector’s inputs and outputs. It also shows the forpublic its inputs. The resultinisTaranaki. that no single Scientific research and technical 0.8 Labour accounts for 46services percent of all sector inputs Theindustry relatively large size of th sector’s contribution to each category ofsupply regional dominates its inputs. Health and dental services Electricity generation and 0.7 sector ensures that it represents 12 percent of all labour inputs in the region. inputs and outputs.Services to agriculture and hunting and trapping provides 2.4 percent 0.7 of all inputs into the public sectorcome in Taranaki. Communityincare nextanother one-fif Local Around government administration one-fifth of the sector’s inputs from0.7 industries the services region, iswith Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates Labour accounts for 46 coming percent from of allimports public sector with 1.6 percent. Other business services and legal from outside the region, accounting for 2.0 percent of total regional imports. inputs in Taranaki. The relatively large size of the and accounting services each provide more than 1.0 Asthat wasit the case with the of education the public sector draws onthe a wide range of industries forof outpu Three-quarters the outputs are of consumed within region, while 8.5 percent sector ensures represents 12 percent ofsector’s all sector, percent all public sector inputs. inputs. result isThese that no singleequate industry dominates itsall inputs. and dental services areThe exported. exports to 0.8 percent of exportsHealth from Taranaki. labour inputsits in the region. provides 2.4 percent of all inputs into the public sector in Taranaki. Community care services is next Table 3.27 presents the top ten industries by contribution to public sector inputs in Taranaki.
Table 3.27 Taranaki public sectormajor majorinput inputindustries industries Table 3.27 Taranaki public sector 3 Taranaki’s Taranaki public sector % of sector inputs Health and Dental Services 2.4 Community care services 1.6 Other business services 1.5 Legal and accounting services 1.1 Real estate 0.9 Communication services 0.8 Scientific research and technical services 0.8 Electricity generation and supply 0.7 Services to agriculture and hunting and trapping 0.7 Local government administration 0.7 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
key sectors
As was the case with the education sector, the public sector draws on a wide range of industries f its inputs. The result is that no single industry dominates its inputs. Health and dental service 35 provides 2.4 percent of all inputs into the public sector in Taranaki. Community care services is ne
with 1.6 percent. Other business services and legal and accounting services each provide more tha 1.0 percent of all public sector inputs. The top-ten input industries together provide 11.3 percent of all public sector inputs.
Table 3.28 presents the industry’s most reliant on the public sector in terms of the portion of the total output contributed to the public sector in Taranaki.
Table 3.28 Taranaki industriesreliant relianton onthe thepublic public sector sector Table 3.28 Taranaki industries % of industry output going to Taranaki public sector sector Sew erage, drainage and w aste disposal services 13.8 Community care services 11.9 Health and Dental Services 10.8 Services to agriculture and hunting and trapping 8.3 Legal and accounting services 6.6 General Insurance 6.5 Other business services 5.8 Veterinary services 5.3 Computer services 4.8 Other education 4.5 Source: BERL, Butcher & Associates
Around 14 percent of the sewerage, drainage and waste disposal services industry output feeds int the Taranaki public sector. Around 12 percent of community care services output and 11 percent o health and dental services output in Taranaki are inputs into the public sector.
The top-ten input industries together provide 11.3 FTES, GDP and business units that can be directly A range of other industries rely onattributed public sector demand for at least five percent percent of all public sector inputs. to tourism, as provided by Statistics New of their outpu Tourism Satellite Account. These industries include services Zealand’s to agriculture and hunting and trapping; legal and accountin Table 3.28 presents theservices; industry’sgeneral most reliant on other business services; and veterinary services. insurance; the public sector in terms of the portion of their The contribution of tourism to the local economy total output contributed to the public sector in 3.9 Tourism sector comes from three sources: tourism-characteristic Taranaki. industries, such as accommodation, restaurants, transport and cultural and recreational Tourism cannot be analysed in the mannerservices, of the other industries in this section as it is not a tourism-related industries, specifically Around 14 percent of the sewerage, drainage and affects a services; industry in itself but rather proportion of activity across a number of industries. Its impact o the retail trade; and all other industries, including waste disposal servicescertain industryindustries, output feeds into for example, accommodation, is greater than on other industries, for example everything from police services to mining. the Taranaki public sector. Around 12 percent of mining. community care services output and 11 percent of Theoutput direct contribution of tourism toTable the regional economy is calculated using of proportions of industr health and dental services in Taranaki are 3.29 presents the direct contributions each inputs into the public sector. of these three sources to Taranaki tourism. FTES, GDP and business units that can be directly attributed to tourism, as provided by Statistic New Zealand’s Tourism Satellite Account.
A range of other industries rely on public sector contribution of tourism to the local economy comes from three sources: tourism-characteristi demand for at least fiveThe percent of their output. industries, as accommodation, restaurants, transport services, and cultural and recreationa These industries include services tosuch agriculture and hunting and trapping; legal and accounting services; services; tourism-related industries, specifically the retail trade; and all other industries, includin general insurance; other business services; andservices to mining. everything from police veterinary services. Table 3.29 presents the direct contributions of each of these three sources to Taranaki tourism.
3.9 Tourism sector Tourism cannot be analysed in the manner of the other industries in this section as it is not an industry in itself but rather affects a proportion of activity across a number of industries. Its impact on certain industries, for example, accommodation, than Industry on other Projections industries, Taranaki 32 is greater for example, mining. The direct contribution of tourism to the regional economy is calculated using proportions of industry
36
Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
Taranaki Industry Projections
Table 3.29 Tourism summary indicators, 2013 Table 3.29 Tourism summary indicators, 2013 Role of tourism in local econom y
Em ploym ent
Tourism-characteristic industries Tourism-related industries All non-tourism-related industries Taranaki New Zealand
1,037 337 349 1,724 100,251
% 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 3.4% 5.3%
GDP ($2013m )
%
Num ber of Business Units
%
$61 $25 $49 $135
0.9% 209 3.2% 0.4% 65 0.4% 0.7% 102 0.7% 376 2.0% 2.6% $7,696 3.6% 20,376 4.0% Taranaki Industry Projections Source: BERL Regional Database 2013
Tourism accounts for approximately 3.4 percent of employment in Taranaki, or 1,724 FTEs, slightly below the national average of 5.3 percent. Around 2 percent of regional 3.4 GDP, or $135 is directly by the tourism sector, Tourism accounts for approximately percent of million,with businesscontributed units, with tourism-characteristic compared to 3.6 percent at a national level. Table 3.29 Tourismor summary indicators, 2013 employment in Taranaki, 1,724 FTEs, slightly below industries providing 56 percent of tourism businesses the national average of 5.3 percent. in the region, while non-tourism-related industries Around 376 business units, or 2.6 percent of the regional total, are directlyNum related ber ofto the tourism GDP provide 27 percent, with the remaining 17 percent Role of tourism in local econom y Em ploym ent % % % sector. This is again slightly below the 4.0 percent contribution sector Units seen nationally. Business ($2013m of ) the tourism coming from tourism-related industries. Around 2 percent of regional GDP, or $135 million, is Tourism-characteristic industries 1,037 2.0% $61 0.9% 209 3.2% directly contributed by what the tourism sector, compared Figure 3.1 shows portions of total tourism employment, GDP and businesses are contributed by Tourism-related industries 337 0.7% $25 0.4% 65 0.4% to 3.6 percent at a national level. tourism-related and all other Interestingly, non-tourism-related industries provide each of tourism-characteristic, industries. All non-tourism-related industries 349 0.7% $49 0.7% 102 0.7% a much larger share of the regional tourism GDP, Taranaki 1,724 $135 376 3.4% 2.0% 2.6% is still the second largest share of regional Around 376 3.1 business units, or 2.6topercent of100,251 the GDP 5.3% Figure Contributions employment, and though business New Zealand $7,696 units3.6% 20,376 4.0% tourism GDP, at 36 percent, not far behind the 45 regional total, are directly related to the tourism Source: BERL Regional Database 2013 percent provided by tourism-characteristic industries. sector. This is again slightly below the 4.0 percent contribution the tourism sector seen nationally. Tourism of accounts for approximately 3.4 percent of employment in Taranaki, or 1,724 FTEs, slightly Table 3.30 presents the recent performance of the below the national average of 5.3 percent. share Zealand. Figure 3.1 showsFTE what portions of total tourismGDP share tourism sector in Taranaki Business and unitsNew share Around 2 percent of regional GDP, or $135 million, is directly contributed by the tourism sector, employment, GDP and businesses are contributed by 20% to 3.6 percent at a national level. eachcompared of tourism-characteristic, tourism-related and all 27% other industries. Around 376 business units, or 2.6 37% percent of the regional total, are directly related to the tourism sector. This is again slightly below thepercent 4.0 percent contribution of the tourism sector seen nationally. Tourism-characteristic industries provide 60 45%
all direct tourism employment in the region, Figure 3.1 shows what portions of totalwith tourism employment, GDP and businesses are contributed by 56% one-fifth provided by both tourism-related industries 20% 60% each of tourism-characteristic, tourism-related and all other industries. and other industries. A similar situation is also seen 17% Figure 3.1 Contributions to employment, GDP and business units 18%
Figure 3.1 Contributions to employment, GDP and business units Tourism-characteristic industries
FTE share
Tourism-related industries
GDP share
All non-tourism-related industries Source: BERL Regional Database 2013
Business units share Tourism-characteristic industries provide 60 percent all direct tourism employment in the region, with 20% one-fifth provided by both tourism-related industries and other industries. A similar situation is also 27% seen with business units, with 37% tourism-characteristic industries providing 56 percent of tourism businesses in the region, while non-tourism-related industries provide 27 percent, with the remaining 45% 17 percent coming from tourism-related industries. 56%
Interestingly, non-tourism-related industries provide a much larger share of the regional tourism 20% 60% GDP, though is still the second largest share of regional tourism GDP, at 36 percent, not far behind 17% the 45 percent provided by tourism-characteristic industries. 18%
Table 3.30 presents the recent performance of the tourism sector in Taranaki and New Zealand. Tourism-characteristic industries
Tourism-related industries
All non-tourism-related industries Source: BERL Regional Database 2013
Tourism-characteristic industries provide 60 percent all direct tourism 3employment the region, with Taranaki’s in key sectors one-fifth provided by both tourism-related industries and other industries. A similar situation is also seen with business units, with tourism-characteristic industries providing 56 percent of tourism
33
37
Table 3.30 Recent performance of tourism sector, 2006 – 2013 Table 3.30 Recent performance of tourism sector, 2006 – 2013 Years ending March
Indicator
2006
2011
2012
2013
%pa change 2012 to 2006 to 2013 2013
Em ploym ent Taranaki New Zealand
1,519
1,673
1,737
1,724
-0.7
1.8
98,516
97,143
99,758
100,251
0.5
0.2
110
131
130
135
3.5
3.0
7,138
7,516
7,641
7,696
0.7
1.1
Value added or GDP (2013$m ) Taranaki New Zealand Business units Taranaki New Zealand
336
362
371
376
1.4
1.6
19,683
19,762
20,194
20,376
0.9
0.5
Source: BERL Regional Database 2013
While growth in tourism in Taranaki over the last ten years has been higher than the New Zealand average across all three indicators, it still makes up a far smaller percentage of the regional in New Zealandisis clear expected reach While growth inwhen tourism in Taranaki overnational the last economy. expenditure economy, compared to the Its increasing importance fromtothe fact$6.5 per year, up from $5.4 billion in 2012. ten years has been higherhas thanexceeded the New Zealand that tourism growth Taranaki growth asbillion a whole.
average across all three indicators, it still makes up a Growthpercentage in tourismof employment Taranakiwhen over the last was higher than for regional Theseven bulk ofyears this growth is expected to the come from far smaller the regionalineconomy, Chinese with numbers more The than region’s doubling compared to the national Its increasing economy overall, at economy. 1.8 percent per annum compared with visitors, 1.0 percent per annum. from aroundemployment 200,000 in 2012 to around by importance is cleargrowth from the factalso thathigher tourismthan growth employment was the national tourism growth, which450,000 was just 2019. Over the same time period Australian visitors has exceeded Taranaki growth as a whole. 0.2 percent per annum. who make up the largest market of international Similarly, tourism GDP growth averaged per annum over the sevenbyyears, toa is expected to grow aroundcompared 270,000, to Growth in tourism employment in Taranaki over3.0 percent visitors total of 1.4 million visitors a year. average for Taranaki of 1.9 percent per annum. the last sevenGDP yearsgrowth was higher than for the regional economy overall, at 1.8 percent per annum The number of businesses engaged primarily in tourism-linked has grown by 1.6 percent In the yearactivity to March 2013 international visitorsper spent compared with 1.0 percent per annum. The region’s annum over the seven years, again a higher rate than that seen for overall business numbers in to the $48 million in Taranaki, this could be expected employment growth was also higher than the region, whichemployment grew at 0.6growth, percentwhich per annum. grow to around $58 million a year by 2019, assuming national tourism was just growth in international visitor expenditure matches 0.2 percent per annum. According to the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE), international tourism that seen in New Zealand. Given that over the last visitor nights for New Zealand are expected to rise at a rate of 2.0 percent per annum, to reach 56.1 seven years growth in tourism employment, GDP and Similarly, tourism GDP growth averaged 3.0 percent million in 2019. International visitor expenditure in New Zealand is expected to rise at athan faster businesses in Taranaki has been faster that2.6 seen per annum over the seven years, compared to percent per annum and by 2019, international tourism expenditure in New Zealand is expected to nationally, it is possible that the region will continue average GDP growth for Taranaki of 1.9 percent per reach $6.5 billion per year, up from $5.4 billion in 2012. its good performance and could see a faster increase annum. in both visitor numbers and expenditure, which will The bulk of this growth is expected to come from Chinese visitors, with numbers more than doubling flow through in employment, GDP and businesses. The number of businesses engaged primarily in from around 200,000 in 2012 to around 450,000 by 2019. Over the same time period Australian tourism-linked activity has grown by 1.6 percent per visitors whoseven make up the market of international visitors is expected to grow by around annum over the years, againlargest a higher rate than to a total of 1.4numbers million visitors a year. that270,000, seen for overall business in the region, which grew at 0.6 percent per annum. In the year to March 2013 international visitors spent $48 million in Taranaki, this could be expected to grow to around million aInnovation year by 2019, According to the Ministry$58 of Business, and assuming growth in international visitor expenditure matches that seen in New Zealand. Given that over the last seven years growth in tourism Employment (MBIE), international tourism visitor employment, GDPare and businesses in aTaranaki has been faster than that seen nationally, it is nights for New Zealand expected to rise at that the continue good performance and could see a faster increase in both rate possible of 2.0 percent per region annum,will to reach 56.1 its million in 2019. International visitor expenditure in New visitor numbers and expenditure, which will flow through in employment, GDP and businesses.
Zealand is expected to rise at a faster 2.6 percent per annum and by 2019, international tourism
34
38
Taranaki Industry Projections Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
4 Industry projections 4.1 Employment projections Table 4.1 presents a forecast of employment growth in Taranaki to 2021, 2026 and 2036. Regional employment growth is expected to average around 1.4 percent per annum over the next 23 years. This would take employment from its 2013 level of 51,100 FTEs to 58,300 FTEs in Taranaki Industry Projections 2021, 62,100 FTEs in 2026, and 70,700 FTEs in 2036. Growth in employment is expected to be above the 1.2 percent per annum experienced nationally over the same period.
Economic development is a long-term process. Changes in business and consumer behaviour evolve over lengthy periods of time. Similarly, changes in inter-industry, regional and global relationships have gradual impacts on the characteristics of a regional economy. In addition, changes in the policy environment – whether favourable or otherwise – can have further effects on the long-term composition of business activity in a region.
Within this context, BERL presents a scenario based on the assumption that economic development in Taranaki is likely to be similar The fastest period of employment growth is in the future to what it has been in the recent 4 Industry projections expected over the eight year period between past, within the context of national economic 2013 and 2021, after 2021 it is expected that development trends and global demand (see Economic development is a long-term process. Changes in business and consumer behaviour both Taranaki and New Zealand employment will appendix B). Some modifications to the region’s decline to moderate regional growth levels the 15 evolve overeconomic lengthy performance periods of time. Similarly, changes in more inter-industry, and for global recent relative have been years between 2021 and 2036. relationships have gradual impacts on the characteristics of a regional economy. In addition, included where we believe recent development changes in the policy environment patterns are unlikely to continue. These– whether favourable or otherwise – can have further effects on The most employment growth is expected to modifications are composition discussed in of greater detail in thein a region. the long-term business activity occur in the engineering industry, as can be seen Appendices. 4.2, which ranks the each development industry by their Within this context, BERL presents a scenario based in onTable the assumption that economic percentage change between 2013 Over in Taranaki is likely to be similar in the future to what it has been in the recent past, withinand the2036. context the next 23 years, employment in this industry of national economic development trends and global demand (see appendix B). Some modificationsis expected to more than double, to around 6,880 to the region’s recent relative economic performance have been included where we believe recent FTEs. This assumes rapid growth over the next development patterns are unlikely to continue. These modifications are discussed in greater detail in eight years, with slower (but still substantial) the Appendices. growth from 2021 through to 2036.
4.1
Employment projections
Table 4.1 presents a forecast of employment growth in Taranaki to 2021, 2026 and 2036.
Table 4.1 Forecast employment growth in Taranaki
Table 4.1 Forecast employment growth in Taranaki Number FTEs Agriculture Forestry Fishing Mining (O&G) Food Processing Engineering Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Wholesale & retail trade Hospitality Transport & storage Communications Business, finance & property services Government administration Education Health & community services Cultural & recreational services Personal services Taranaki New Zealand
% p.a change
Actual 2013
2021
2026
2036
6,990 12 10 1,540 4,430 3,000 1,560 680 4,740 5,860 2,420 2,030 440 5,500 1,740 3,220 4,720 670 1,560 51,110 1,883,050
7,240 13 8 2,000 4,860 4,300 2,010 710 5,700 6,160 2,760 2,730 460 6,470 1,820 3,420 5,060 780 1,810 58,320 2,113,160
7,310 12 6 2,260 5,050 5,060 2,220 730 5,770 6,280 3,010 3,210 460 6,960 1,900 3,590 5,380 870 2,000 62,080 2,220,950
7,440 11 4 2,900 5,480 6,880 2,650 770 5,830 6,480 3,530 4,340 460 8,020 2,140 4,030 6,230 1,070 2,450 70,710 2,453,310
Note: Sub-totals are rounded to the nearest hundred (except for forestry and fishing)
Forecast 2013 to 2021 0.4 0.7 -3.5 3.4 1.2 4.6 3.3 0.7 2.3 0.6 1.7 3.8 0.4 2.0 0.6 0.7 0.9 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5
2021 to 2026 0.2 -0.9 -4.0 2.5 0.8 3.3 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.4 1.7 3.2 0.0 1.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 2.2 2.0 1.3 1.0
2026 to 2036 0.2 -1.2 -4.1 2.5 0.8 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.6 3.1 0.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.3 1.0
2013 to 2036 0.3 -0.5 -3.9 2.8 0.9 3.7 2.3 0.6 0.9 0.4 1.7 3.4 0.1 1.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 2.1 2.0 1.4 1.2 Source: BERL
Regional employment growth is expected to average around 1.4 percent per annum over the next 23 years. This would take employment from its 2013 level of 51,100 FTEs to 58,300 FTEs in 2021, 62,100 FTEs in 2026, and 70,700 FTEs in 2036. Growth in employment is expected to be above the 1.2 percent per annum experienced nationally over the same period.
39
FTEs. This assumes rapid growth over the next eight years, with slower (but still substantial) growth from 2021 through to 2036.
Table 4.2 Forecast employment growth in Taranaki, ranked by percentage change
Table 4.2 Forecast employment growth in Taranaki, ranked by percentage change
% p.a change
Number FTEs Engineering Transport & storage Mining (O&G) Other manufacturing Cultural & recreational services Personal services Hospitality Business, finance & property services Health & community services Education Food Processing Government administration Construction Utilities Wholesale & retail trade Agriculture Communications Forestry Fishing Taranaki New Zealand
Actual 2013
2021
2026
2036
3,000 2,030 1,540 1,560 670 1,560 2,420 5,500 4,720 3,220 4,430 1,740 4,740 680 5,860 6,990 440 12 10 51,110 1,883,050
4,300 2,730 2,000 2,010 780 1,810 2,760 6,470 5,060 3,420 4,860 1,820 5,700 710 6,160 7,240 460 13 8 58,320 2,113,160
5,060 3,210 2,260 2,220 870 2,000 3,010 6,960 5,380 3,590 5,050 1,900 5,770 730 6,280 7,310 460 12 6 62,080 2,220,950
6,880 4,340 2,900 2,650 1,070 2,450 3,530 8,020 6,230 4,030 5,480 2,140 5,830 770 6,480 7,440 460 11 4 70,710 2,453,310
Forecast 2013 to 2021 4.6 3.8 3.4 3.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 2.0 0.9 0.7 1.2 0.6 2.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.7 -3.5 1.7 1.5
Note: Sub-totals are rounded to the nearest hundred (except for forestry and fishing)
2021 to 2026 3.3 3.2 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.9 -4.0 1.3 1.0
2026 to 2036 3.1 3.1 2.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.8 1.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 -1.2 -4.1 1.3 1.0
2013 to 2036 3.7 3.4 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.5 -3.9 1.4 1.2 Source: BERL
Over the period to 2021, strong growth is also expected in transport and storage (3.8 percent per mining (3.4strong percent per annum), (3.3 percent per annum), construction percent per annum for Taranaki and 1.0 percent per Overannum), the period to 2021, growth is also other manufacturing (2.3 percent per annum), and(3.8 cultural and recreationalannum services for (2.1 Newpercent Zealand.per annum). Meanwhile expected in transport and storage percent per annum), mining (3.4 percent annum), employment in fishing is theper only industry which is likely to fall over the next 8 years, and it is forecast Engineering employment is expected to continue other (3.3 percent per annum), tomanufacturing drop from 10 FTEs to 8 FTEs
to lead Taranaki employment growth, growing at construction (2.3 percent per annum), and cultural 2021 and (2.1 2026, engineering is still likely to the leader in employment growth again. 3.1be percent per annum, with transport and storage and Between recreational services percent per annum). However, other industries such asonly transport and storage, at 3.2 percent per annum, mining, at 2.5 employment also growing 3.1 percent per annum, Meanwhile employment in fishing is the industry this percent ten year per period. Mining, personal service, which is likelyper to fall over the next 8and years, and it is services,over percent annum, cultural recreational at 2.2 annum, personal services, andproperty cultural and recreational should also forecast to drop fromper 10 FTEs to 8 FTEs. at 2.0 percent annum, and business, finance and services, also services at 2.0 percent persee growth of over 2.0 percent per annum. Meanwhile, annum, will also experience good growth over this five year period, though at a slower rate than seen both the forestry and fishing industries continue to Between 2021 and 2026, engineering is still likely to between 2013 and 2021. Overall employment growth in Taranaki over this five year period will be see a decline in employment. be the leader in employment growth again. However, 1.3 percent per annum, this is down from 1.7 percent per annum forecast for 2013 to 2021. other industries such as transport and storage, at 3.2 percent per at 2.5 per is the forestry and fishing industries, which are forecast The only inannum, declinemining, over this fivepercent year period annum, cultural and recreational services, at 2.2 to lose around 3 FTEs in total. percent per annum, personal services, at 2.0 percent From 2026 2036, employment in Taranaki is expected to continue growing at a faster rate than in per annum, and to business, finance and property New also Zealand a whole. The overall employment growth rate for Taranaki and New Zealand as a services, at 2.0as percent per annum, will also experience good growth over this five year period, whole is forecast to continue growing at a modest rate, 1.3 percent per annum for Taranaki and 1.0 though at a slower rate than seenZealand. between 2013 and percent per annum for New 2021. Overall employment growth in Taranaki over employment is expected to continue to lead Taranaki employment growth, growing at this Engineering five year period will be 1.3 percent per annum, percent transport and storage employment also growing 3.1 percent per annum, this 3.1 is down fromper 1.7annum, percent with per annum forecast for 2013over to 2021. this ten year period. Mining, personal service, and cultural and recreational services should also see growth of over 2.0 percent per annum. Meanwhile, both the forestry and fishing industries
The continue only in decline this fiveinyear period is the to seeover a decline employment. forestry and fishing industries, which are forecast to lose around 3 FTEs in total.
36
40
From 2026 to 2036, employment in Taranaki is expected to continue growing at a faster rate than in NewTaranaki Zealand as a whole. The overall employment Industry Projections growth rate for Taranaki and New Zealand as a whole is forecast to continue growing at a modest rate, 1.3
Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
4.2 GDP projections6 Table 4.3 presents a forecast of GDP growth in Taranaki to 2021, 2026 and 2036.
and on to $9.7 billion by 2026 and $14.1 billion by 2036. This would grow the region’s share of national GDP to 3.7 percent in 2036 from 3.2 percent in 2013.
The Taranaki economy is expected to undergo strong gains in GDP over the three periods under consideration, with GDP growth of 3.8 percent per annum forecast to 2036. This could see GDP rise to $8.1 billion by 2021 from its 2013 level of6$5.9 billion,
Table 4.4 presents the forecast GDP growth in Taranaki, with each industry ranked by it’s per annum growth between 2013 and 2036.
4.2
Taranaki Industry Projections
GDP projections
Table 4.3 presents a forecast of GDP growth in Taranaki to 2021, 2026 and 2036.
Table 4.3 Forecast GDP growth in Taranaki Table 4.3 Forecast GDP growth in Taranaki Number GDP (2013$m)
2013 Agriculture Forestry Fishing Mining (O&G) Food Processing Engineering Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Wholesale & retail trade Hospitality Transport & storage Communications Business, finance & property services Government administration Education Health & community services Cultural & recreational services Personal services Total New Zealand
% p.a change
Actual
680 6 1 1,130 600 320 320 220 320 510 80 300 140 530 150 160 360 50 80 5,930 184,590
2021 770 7 1 1,870 760 480 470 280 460 650 100 420 200 660 170 190 420 60 100 8,080 239,200
2026 850 8 1 2,450 880 600 580 340 520 760 120 520 250 740 180 210 470 80 120 9,680 278,010
2036 1,030 10 1 4,220 1,180 910 830 470 670 1,030 180 770 380 960 230 270 630 110 170 14,050 377,930
Note: Totals are rounded to the nearest ten million (except forestry and fishing). GDP totals exclude Owner Occupied Dwellings.
Forecast 2013 to 2021 1.6 1.8 3.0 6.5 3.0 5.4 5.0 3.5 4.7 3.2 3.7 4.6 4.5 2.7 1.5 1.8 2.0 3.8 3.4 3.9 3.3
2021 to 2026 1.9 1.9 2.6 5.6 2.9 4.3 3.9 3.3 2.7 3.0 3.9 4.2 4.3 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.6 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.1
2026 to 2036 2.0 2.0 2.7 5.6 3.0 4.2 3.8 3.4 2.6 3.0 3.9 4.0 4.3 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.1
2013 to 2036 1.8 1.9 2.8 5.9 3.0 4.7 4.2 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.8 4.3 4.3 2.6 2.0 2.2 2.5 3.9 3.6 3.8 3.2 Source: BERL
The Taranaki economy is expected to undergo strong gains in GDP over the three periods under consideration, with GDP growth of 3.8 percent per annum forecast to 2036. This could see GDP rise to $8.1 billion by 2021 from its 2013 level of $5.9 billion, and on to $9.7 billion by 2026 and $14.1 billion by 2036. This would grow the region’s share of national GDP to 3.7 percent in 2036 from 3.2 percent in 2013. Table 4.4 presents the forecast GDP growth in Taranaki, with each industry ranked by it’s per annum growth between 2013 and 2036.
6
GDP projections do not include GDP from owner-occupied dwellings.
41
Table 4.4 Forecast GDP growth in Taranaki, ranked by percentage change Table 4.4 Forecast GDP growth in Taranaki, ranked by percentage change % p.a change
Number GDP (2013$m)
Actual 2013
Mining (O&G) Engineering Communications Transport & storage Other manufacturing Cultural & recreational services Hospitality Personal services Utilities Construction Wholesale & retail trade Food Processing Fishing Business, finance & property services Health & community services Education Government administration Forestry Agriculture Total New Zealand
1,130 320 140 300 320 50 80 80 220 320 510 600 1 530 360 160 150 6 680 5,930 184,590
2021 1,870 480 200 420 470 60 100 100 280 460 650 760 1 660 420 190 170 7 770 8,080 239,200
2026 2,450 600 250 520 580 80 120 120 340 520 760 880 1 740 470 210 180 8 850 9,680 278,010
2036 4,220 910 380 770 830 110 180 170 470 670 1,030 1,180 1 960 630 270 230 10 1,030 14,050 377,930
Forecast 2013 to 2021 6.5 5.4 4.5 4.6 5.0 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.5 4.7 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.6 3.9 3.3
2021 to 2026 5.6 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.3 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9 3.7 3.1
Note: Totals are rounded to the nearest ten million (except forestry and fishing). GDP totals exclude Owner Occupied Dwellings.
2026 to 2036 5.6 4.2 4.3 4.0 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.4 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.0 2.0 3.8 3.1
2013 to 2036 5.9 4.7 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.8 3.2 Source: BERL
One primary assumption driving this projection is that both employment and labour productivity will surge in the mining industry (dominated in Taranaki Region by oil and gas), and to a lesser degree in the engineering industry. The mining industry is characterised by particularly high labour productivity Between and 2026, GDP for growth in the mining One(GDP primary driving projection perassumption FTE) already, at this $733,800 per isFTE, compared with 2021 $116,000 per FTE the region as a industry is expected to slow somewhat, but will thatwhole. both employment and labour productivity will As a result, strong growth in this industry would push up Taranaki’s average labour remain 5.6 percent per model. annum. Robust surge in the mining industry (dominated in produce Taranaki the strong productivity very rapidly. This would GDPstrong, growthatprojected in our
growth in engineering, transport and storage and the Region by oil and gas), and to a lesser degree in The most startling of suchisgrowth in thecommunications mining industry industry is that itwill could well account continue at morefor than the engineering industry.consequence The mining industry 4.0 percent per annum. characterised by particularly high labour productivity 30 percent of all GDP in Taranaki by 2036, from its current level of 19 percent. (GDP per FTE) already, at $733,800 per FTE, compared fastest is expected in In thetheperiod and2036, 2021. Strong periodbetween between 2013 2026 and the mining withThe $116,000 peroverall FTE forregional the regiongrowth as a whole. As employment growth coupled with above-average labour productivity growth could see mining industry industries GDP is expected to continue to growing a result, strong growth in this industry would push up GDP average grow bylabour 6.5 percent pervery annum, adding almost $740 million in per GDP. While this figure strongly at 5.6 percent annum and adding around Taranaki’s productivity rapidly. $1.8 to the regional economy over Thisdominates would produce theinstrong growth projected gains otherGDP industries, there are alsoanother likely to bebillion significant increases in GDP in this period. At the same time engineering (4.2 in our model. engineering (5.4 percent per annum), other manufacturing (5.0 percent per annum), construction (4.7 percentper per annum), annum), communications (4.3 percent percent per annum), transport and storage (4.6 percent and communications (4.5 per annum), transport and storage (4.0 percent per The percent most startling consequence of such growth in per annum). annum), and cultural and recreational services (4.0 the mining industry is that it could well account for percent per annum) are to grow strongly 30 percent of all GDPand in Taranaki by 2036, frominits Between 2021 2026, GDP growth the mining industry is expected to expected slow somewhat, but will as well. in engineering, transport and storage and current levelstrong, of 19 percent. remain at 5.6 percent per annum. Robust growth the communications industry will continue at more than 4.0 percent per annum.
The fastest overall regional growth is expected in the In the period2013 between 2026Strong and 2036, the mining industries GDP is expected to continue to growing period between and 2021. employment strongly at 5.6 per annum and adding around another $1.8 billion to the regional economy growth coupled withpercent above-average labour productivity could GDP over thisgrowth period. Atsee themining sameindustry time engineering (4.2 percent per annum), communications (4.3 growpercent by 6.5 percent per annum, adding almost $740(4.0 percent per annum), and cultural and recreational per annum), transport and storage million in GDP.(4.0 While this figure dominates in to grow strongly as well. services percent per annum) are gains expected other industries, there are also likely to be significant increases in GDP in engineering (5.4 percent per annum), other manufacturing (5.0 percent per annum), construction (4.7 percent per annum), transport and storage (4.6 percent per annum), and communications (4.5 percent per annum).
38
42
Taranaki Industry Projections Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
4.3 Summary of projections The mining industry (dominated by oil and gas) story is the most significant in this projection. The Taranaki region is inextricably linked to the mining industry, with the industry’s importance to employment and GDP (especially) in the region expected to rise dramatically over the next 23 years. The sector is forecast to make up 30 percent of the region’s GDP by 2036 from 19 percent in 2013. These effects will flow through to engineering, which exhibits growth in GDP of 4.7 percent per annum and growth in employment of 3.7 percent per annum over the forecast period. Regional employment growth is expected to be at a faster rate than national growth, especially over the eight years from 2013 to 2021. Moreover, regional GDP growth is expected to be significantly higher than national, driven by the mining industry as well as growth in other high productivity industries such as engineering, and other manufacturing. Almost all industries are likely to experience gains in employment over the next 23 years. GDP increases will be even more solid across the board, as even industries with slow employment growth improve labour productivity. For example, agriculture is likely to see GDP rise by 1.8 percent per annum despite employment growth of just 0.3 percent per annum. In other industries, GDP growth rates are expected to vary between 1.8 percent per annum for agriculture, and 5.9 percent per annum in mining out to 2036.
43
Appendix A: Multiplier analysis method This multiplier analysis uses multipliers derived from inter-industry input-output tables for the Taranaki region. The Taranaki region input-output tables have been derived from the national input-output tables and other data by Butcher Partners, Canterbury - a recognised source for regional input-output tables and multipliers. Multipliers allowed us to identify the direct, indirect and induced effects in terms of Full Time Equivalent (FTE) employment.
Employment Impact multipliers Employment impact multipliers determine the number of FTE roles that are created for every $1 million spent in an industry for one year. It provides a measure of total labour demand associated with Gross Output. An FTE is the percentage of time an employee works represented as a decimal. A full-time position is 1.00; a part-time position is 0.50.
Direct, indirect and induced effects The underlying logic of multiplier analysis is relatively straightforward. An initial expenditure (direct effect) in an industry creates flows of expenditures that are magnified, or “multiplied”, as they flow on to the wider economy. This occurs in two ways: •
•
The industry purchases materials and services from supplier firms, who in turn make further purchchases from their suppliers. This generates an indirect effect. Persons employed in the direct development and in firms supplying services earn income (mostly from wages and salaries, but also from profits) which, after tax is deducted, is then spent on consumption. There is also an allowance for some savings. These are the induced effects.
Hence, for any amount spent in an area (direct effect), the actual output, and therefore employment, generated from that spend is greater
44
once the flow on activity generated (indirect and induced effects) is taken into account.
Leakages Generally the more developed, or self-sufficient, an industry in a region is, the higher the multiplier effects. Conversely, the more reliant an industry is on supply inputs from outside the region, the lower the multipliers. These outside factors can be referred to as “leakages”. To put this another way, if a house was purchased in The Taranaki region, and all the materials and labour were sourced in The Taranaki region, and all the materials and labour that went into making the housing materials were made in The Taranaki region and so forth, and then the labour spent their wages or salaries in The Taranaki region, again on goods or services produced solely in The Taranaki region, then all the multiplier effects would be captured by The Taranaki region. Where inputs or outputs come from outside The Taranaki region, leakages are said to exist, and the multiplier effect is reduced.
Limitations of multiplier analysis Partial equilibrium analysis Multiplier analysis is only a “partial equilibrium” analysis, assessing the direct and indirect effects of the development being considered, without analysing the effects of the resources used on the wider national and regional economy. In particular, it assumes that the supply of capital, productive inputs and labour can expand to meet the additional demand called forth by the initial injection and the flow on multiplier effects, without leading to resource constraints in other industries. These constraints would lead to price rises and resulting changes in overall patterns of production between industries. To assess inter-industry impacts in full would require economic modelling within a “general equilibrium” framework. Applying such models becomes more relevant where the particular development is considered significant within the overall economy.
Regions and boundaries The smaller or less defined a region and its boundaries, the less accurate the multiplier
Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
analysis will be. Similarly, the easier it is to move across boundaries, the less accurate the analysis will be. For example, at the national level, the multipliers will be very accurate as it is easy to determine the inputs and outputs crossing through the New Zealand borders. Similarly, it would also be more accurate to determine a north island/south island split. As smaller regions without obvious geographic boundaries are selected, a higher level of assumptions needs to be made and the multipliers become less accurate. For example, an individual could work in the Auckland region but live in the Waikato region and spend a large proportion of his/her recreation money in the Bay of Plenty region. For any regional analysis the level of accuracy will have to be accepted. As a rule of thumb, the larger and more defined the region, the more accurate the analysis will be.
45
Appendix B: BERL projections method annum. Employment in all industries is expected to increase over this eight year period. Growth in government investment and exports will drive ahead employment in fabricated manufacturing, building and government, education and health industries.
National projections This section summarises the main assumptions and projection results used in this report. The projections are based on the economic environment in 2013, and assume that the environment will develop out to 2021, 2026 and 2036 in a similar way to the recent past. That is, the projections reflect the recent past and do not anticipate that any major departures from the current environment will have a substantial impact over the projected horizons.
Over the 23-year period, employment growth is expected to average 1.2 percent per annum growth.
Regional Projections Population growth in Taranaki has been growing in line with the national average over the last seven years, but is assumed to grow in line with Statistic New Zealand’s high growth projection out to Venture Taranaki’s aspirational goal of 125,000 people in 2036.
Table 4.5 summarises FTE employment, GDP, projected employment, and GDP growth from 2013 out to the 2021, 2026 and 2036 horizons. The national economy is projected to continue expanding, growing by 3.3 percent per annum between 2013 and 2021, before drifting down to 3.1 percent per annum growth to 2026 and 3.1 percent per annum to 2036. These projections capture the effects of an expansion in New Zealand’s capital stock, population growth and an increasing labour supply.
By and large, the projections assume that regional industries will maintain the same growth rates relative to national growth as seen over the past ten years. Where this is unlikely to be the case, further assumptions have been introduced.
During the period to 2021 the expansions are Employment assumptions: driven, in particular, by growth in investment • Mining performance is particularly hard arising from the Christchurch rebuild effort and to forecast, as it depends on the level of a range of infrastructure projects in Auckland. National projections exploration and success thereof. The industry Thereafter export growth is more prominent in is likely to experience substantial growth over line with global market growth and as domestic This section summarises the main assumptions and projection results used in this report. The the next few years, but there is little certainty production resources are freed from the projections are based on the economic environment in 2013, and growth assumewill that the environment that this continue unabated will to investment surge. develop out to 2021, 2026 and 2036 in a similar way to2036. the recent past. That is, the projections We have therefore slowed expected Overall, employment levelsand willdo track reflect the recent past notthe anticipate that any major departures from the 2013 current environment growth rates between and 2036. growth projected for the economy and for the will have a substantial impact over the projected horizons. • Engineering, other manufacturing in Taranaki particular industries influenced by this expansion. both seenand growth 4.5 summarises FTE employment, GDPsubstantially growth fromhigher 2013 FTE Table employment is projected to employment, expand by GDP, projectedhave than the national average in recent years. This out to the 2021, 2026 andthe 2036 horizons. The national economy is projected to continue expanding, approximately 230,000 over eight-year period is assumed to slow somewhat. between 2013 which equatesbetween to an 2013 and 2021, growing by and 3.3 2021, percent per annum before drifting down to 3.1 percent per Government administration; average annual ratetoof2026 28,800 1.5percent percentper perannum to • annum growth andor3.1 2036. These projections captureeducation; the effectsand of
Appendix B BERL projections method
an expansion in New Zealand’s capital stock, population growth and an increasing labour supply.
Table 4.5 National Table 4.5 National employment and GDPemployment projections and GDP projections Actual
New Zealand
2013
1,883,050 Employment Value added or GDP (2013$m) 184,590
2021
2026
2036
2,113,160 239,200
2,220,950 278,010
2,453,310 377,930
Forecast 2013 to 2021 1.5 3.3
2021 to 2026 1.0 3.1
2026 to 2036 1.0 3.1
2013 to 2036 1.2 3.2 Source: BERL
46
During the period to 2021 the expansions are driven, in particular, by growth in investment arising from the Christchurch rebuild effort and a range of infrastructure projects in Auckland. Thereafter Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 growth - 2036 export growth is more prominent in line with global market and as domestic production
health and community services are assumed to grow at the national rate. These industries have been growing slower than the national average in Taranaki in the recent past. • Agriculture, food processing and the communications industries are assumed to grow at faster rates than they have over the last ten years.
GDP assumptions: • Mining performance is particularly hard to forecast, as it depends on the level of exploration and success thereof. The industry is likely to experience substantial growth over the next few years, but there is little certainty that this growth will continue unabated to 2036. We have therefore slowed expected growth rates between 2013 and 2036. • Engineering, other manufacturing, transport and storage, communications, and recreational and cultural services in Taranaki have both seen growth substantially higher than the national average in recent years. This is assumed to slow somewhat. • Forestry and fishing are assumed to grow at the national rate. These industries have been growing slower than the national average in Taranaki in the recent past.
47
Appendix C: Taranaki business units Business units have not been included in the main report. However, it is likely to be of use for policy analysis and has been added here for that purpose and for completeness. Taranaki had 14,600 business units in 2013 across all sectors, or around 2.9 percent of the national total. Figure 4.1 shows the proportion of businesses within different industries in Taranaki.
The three manufacturing industries – food processing, engineering and other manufacturing, together represented just 3.8 percent of Taranaki businesses. This indicates that the average business size within manufacturing is relatively large, as the sector accounts for 17.6 percent of regional employment. Figure 4.2 and Figure 4.3, compares the proportion of businesses accounted for by each industry in Taranaki with the national situation.
Agriculture accounted for 27 percent of all businesses. Business, finance and property services provided 32 percent of businesses, while wholesale and retail trade had 8 percent.
Appendix C Taranaki business units
Business units have not been included in the main report. However, it is likely to be of use for policy analysis and has been added here for that purpose and for completeness. Taranaki had 14,600 business units in 2013 across all sectors, or around 2.9 percent of the national total. Figure 4.1 shows the proportion of businesses within different industries in Taranaki.
Figure 4.1 Taranaki business units by industry, 2013
Figure 4.1 Taranaki business units by industry, 2013
Other industries 16% Agriculture 27% Health & community 3%
Bus, finance & property 32%
Mining (O&G) 1% Food Processing Engineering 1% 2% Other manufacturing 2% Construction 8% Wholesale & retail 8% Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
48
Agriculture accounted for 27 percent of all businesses. Business, finance and property services provided 32 percent of businesses, while wholesale and retail trade had 8 percent. Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
The three manufacturing industries – food processing, engineering and other manufacturing, together
Taranaki Industry Projections Taranaki Industry Projections Figure 4.2 Comparison of business units by industry, part one, 2013 Figure 4.2 Comparison of business units by industry, part one, 2013 12.6
Figure Agriculture 4.2 Comparison of business units by industry, part one, 2013 1.0 1.3
Forestry
12.6
Agriculture Fishing
27.4
0.3 0.1 1.0 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.10.7 0.5 0.2 1.11.7 1.8 0.7 0.5 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.8 0.3 0.4 1.9 1.5
Forestry Mining (O&G) Fishing Food Processing Mining (O&G) Engineering Food Processing Other manufacturing Engineering Utilities Other manufacturing Construction Utilities
27.4
9.9 8.4
0
0.3 0.4
5
10 9.9
Construction
8.4
New 10 Zealand
5
0
15
20
25
30
20
25
30
Business units (% of total) Taranaki 15
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
Business units (% of total)
The relative importance of agriculture is clear in that it accounted for more than double the proportion New Zealand Taranaki Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics Newfinance Zealand businesses in Taranaki as in New Zealand as a whole. On the other hand, the business, The of relative importance of agriculture is clear business, finance and property services industry andit property makes portion all businesses nationally than in in that accountedservices for moreindustry than double theup a largermakes upof a larger portion of all businesses The relative importance of agriculture is clear in that it accounted for more than double the proportion proportion of businesses in Taranaki as in New nationally than in Taranaki. Taranaki. of businesses in On Taranaki as inhand, Newthe Zealand as a whole. On the other hand, the business, finance Zealand as a whole. the other and property services industry makes up by a industry, larger portion of all2013 businesses nationally than in Figure 4.3 Comparison of business units part two, Taranaki.
Figure 4.3 Comparison of business units by industry, part two, 2013 10.5
Wholesale & retail Figure 4.3 Comparison of business units by industry, part two, 2013 8.0 Hospitality
2.8
Wholesale & retail Transport & storage
3.1 2.5
Hospitality Communications
1.1 0.4
2.8
8.0
10.5
3.9
3.1 2.5
Transport & storage Bus, finance & property
39.7
32.0
1.1 0.7 0.4 0.8
Communications Government admin Bus, finance & property Education
2.0 2.0 0.7 0.8
Government admin Health & community
39.7
32.0 4.0 3.3
2.0 2.0 2.0 1.6
Education Cultural & recreational
4.0 3.3 4.4 4.2
Health & community Personal Cultural & recreational
3.9
0
2.0 1.6
5
10
0
5
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
30
35
40
45
Business units (% of total)
4.4 4.2
Personal
10
New 15 Zealand 20 Taranaki25
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
Business units (% of total) New Zealand
Taranaki
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
Appendix C Taranaki business units
45
49 Appendix C Taranaki business units
45
Table 4.6 summarizes the change in the number of business units within each industry in Taranaki over the last seven years. It also shows overall New Zealand business units growth.
Table 4.6 Taranaki business units, 2006 – 2013 Table 4.6 Taranaki business units, 2006 – 2013 Industry Agriculture
Business units 2006
2011
%pa change
2012
2013
2012
2013
2006 to 2013
4,693
4,173
4,158
3,998
-0.4
-3.8
Forestry
161
175
166
183
-5.1
10.2
1.8
Fishing
29
25
25
21
0.0
-16.0
-4.5
Mining (O&G)
61
120
146
164
21.7
12.3
15.2
Food Processing
76
80
74
73
-7.5
-1.4
-0.6
Engineering
266
268
273
266
1.9
-2.6
0.0
Other manufacturing
231
221
221
218
0.0
-1.4
-0.8 4.0
Utilities
-2.3
41
52
56
54
7.7
-3.6
Construction
1,119
1,273
1,241
1,229
-2.5
-1.0
1.3
Wholesale & retail trade
1,195
1,183
1,161
1,166
-1.9
0.4
-0.4
Hospitality
417
421
424
412
0.7
-2.8
-0.2
Transport & storage
378
358
346
358
-3.4
3.5
-0.8
55
64
64
62
0.0
-3.1
1.7
3,637
4,412
4,471
4,668
1.3
4.4
3.6
114
110
112
110
1.8
-1.8
-0.5
Communications Business, finance & property services Government administration Education
266
273
281
286
2.9
1.8
1.0
Health & community services
457
475
473
477
-0.4
0.8
0.6
Cultural & recreational services
230
228
229
232
0.4
1.3
0.1
Personal services
543
611
622
611
1.8
-1.8
1.7
13,969
14,522
14,543
14,588
0.1
0.3
0.6
492,309
505,194
504,381
507,908
-0.2
0.7
0.4
Taranaki New Zealand
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
The biggest growth in percentage terms in the number of business units over the five years occurred in mining (15.2 percent per annum, almost exclusively in oil and gas); utilities (4.0 percent per annum); and business, finance and property services (3.6 percent per annum).
Table 4.6 summarizes the change in the of theunits 19 industries seen theiryears. number Eight of the 19 industries have seennumber their number ofEight business fall over have the last seven of business units within each industry in Taranaki of business units fall over the last seven years. These include fishing (-4.5 percent per annum), agriculture (-2.3 percent per annum), other over the last seven years. It also shows overall These include fishing (-4.5 percent per annum), manufacturing (-0.8 percent per annum); and transport and storage (-0.8 percent per annum). New Zealand business units growth. agriculture (-2.3 percent per annum), other manufacturing (-0.8 percent perthe annum); Figure 4.4 compares business unit growth rates for Taranaki and New Zealand over periodand from The2006 biggest growth in percentage terms in the transport and storage (-0.8 percent per annum). to 2013. number of business units over the five years occurred in mining (15.2 percent per annum, Figure 4.4 compares business unit growth rates for almost exclusively in oil and gas); utilities (4.0 Taranaki and New Zealand over the period from percent per annum); and business, finance and 2006 to 2013. property services (3.6 percent per annum).
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50
Taranaki Industry Projections
Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
Taranaki Industry Projections
Figure 4.4 Business units trend, 2006 – 2013 Figure 4.4 Business units trend, 2006 – 2013 106
Business unit index (2006=100)
105
104
103
102
101
100 2006
2007
2008
2009 Taranaki
2010
2011
2012
2013
New Zealand
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
Overall, business unit growth has been quite similar in New Zealand and Taranaki over the last seven years. Figure 4.5 and Figure 4.6, compares annual growth rates for the number of business units in each
Overall, business unit growth has been quite industry in Taranaki and New Zealand for the period from 2006 to 2013. similar in New Zealand and Taranaki over the last seven years. Figure 4.5 and Figure 4.6, compares annual growth rates for the number of business units in each industry in Taranaki and New Zealand for the period from 2006 to 2013.
Appendix C Taranaki business units
47
51
Figure 4.5 Comparison of business unit growth by industry, part one, 2006 – 2013 Figure 4.5 Comparison of business unit growth by industry, part one, 2006 – 2013 -2.4 -2.3
Agriculture
-1.3
Forestry
1.8 -2.9
Fishing
-4.5 4.0
Mining (O&G)
15.2 1.9
Food Processing
-0.6 -1.1
Engineering
0.0 -2.6
Other manufacturing
-0.8 2.0
Utilities
4.0 -0.4
Construction
1.3
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Business unit growth 2006-2013 (%pa) New Zealand
Taranaki
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
Growth in the number of business units exceeded the national average in mining; utilities; construction; business, finance and property services; forestry; communications; and personal The number of business units fell most in fishing Growth in the number of business units services.
and agriculture. exceeded the national average in mining; utilities; The number of business units fell most in fishing and agriculture. construction; business, finance and property services; forestry; communications; and personal services.
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52
Taranaki Industry Projections Taranaki Industry Projections 2013 - 2036
Taranaki Industry Projections
Figure 4.6 Comparison of business unit growth by industry, part two, 2006 – 2013 Figure 4.6 Comparison of business unit growth by industry, part two, 2006 – 2013 -0.4 -0.4
Wholesale & retail
0.7
Hospitality
-0.2 -0.6 -0.8
Transport & storage
1.4 1.7
Communications
2.1
Bus, finance & property
3.6 -0.5 -0.5
Government admin
1.6 1.0
Education
1.8
Health & community
0.6
Cultural & recreational
0.6 0.1
Personal
0.6 1.7
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Business unit growth 2006-2013 (%pa) New Zealand
Taranaki
Source: BERL Regional Database, Statistics New Zealand
Appendix C Taranaki business units
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53
Taranaki’s Regional Development Agency 9 Robe Street | PO Box 670 | New Plymouth P: 06 759 5150 | F: 06 759 5154 E: info@taranaki.info www.taranaki.info
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