TARANAKI FACTS AND FIGURES
WIN T ER 2015
Taranaki Trends
WELCOME TO TARANAKI TRENDS FOR WINTER 2015 Statistics are, by their very definition, backward looking. But while they capture how our region has performed - rather than what’s ahead they do offer insights that can be incredibly valuable when planning for growth. This edition of Taranaki Trends tells a story of a region built on strong foundations. Our building consents are up, our population is growing, our economy has performed strongly and we have more people employed in more businesses. We can be justifiably proud of our region. But looking forward Taranaki is facing some economic challenges. Our two cornerstone industries – dairying and oil and gas – are being impacted by fluctuations in global commodity prices that sit beyond our region’s control. What we are able to control is our response, and this publication should become one of the assets in your business toolbox. As the winter’s weather rolls in, and the impacts of global commodity price movements reach our region, we encourage you to utilise the contents of this toolbox to maintain momentum and planning for the spring. If statistics and our past performances teach us anything, it is what goes down will ultimately rebound. And as Taranaki’s regional development agency, if the team here at Venture Taranaki can offer any further assistance to help your organisation grow, then please don’t hesitate to contact us.
Stuart Trundle Chief Executive Venture Taranaki
Winter Edition 2015: This edition of Taranaki Trends is published in May 2015 and remains current until November 2015 TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
Economic Summary
TARANAKI GDP up 7.2% on the previous year, now at $9.2B.
EMPLOYEE NUMBERS annual change for 2014 relative to 2013.
NUMBER OF BUSINESSES IN TARANAKI
DEATHS FOR THE YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 2014
RETAIL SALES FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDING DECEMBER 2014
EMPLOYMENT PARTICIPATION RATE
relative to 2013.
relative to the same period in 2013.
annual rate to December 2014 relative to 2013.
NATURAL INCREASE IN POPULATION (BIRTHS LESS DEATHS)
ONLINE PURCHASES BY TARANAKI RESIDENTS
DEPARTURES OF TARANAKI PEOPLE
December 2014 quarter relative to the same period in 2013.
to overseas locations on a permanent long-term basis.
GUEST NIGHTS IN TARANAKIFROM VISITORS STAYING WITH FRIENDS AND FAMILY IN 2014
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
for year ending December 2014 compared to previous 12 months.
our annual change 2014 relative to 2013.
EMPLOYMENT BY MÄ€ORI TRUSTS AND AUTHORITIES WITHIN TARANAKI
ARRIVALS DUE TO LONG -TERM PERMANENT INTERNATIONAL PEOPLE
BIRTHS IN THE REGION FOR THE YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 2014 relative to the previous 12 month period.
EMPLOYEE NUMBERS annual change for 2014 relative to 2013.
relative to the previous 12 month period.
year ending December 2014 relative to previous 12 months.
Annual change for 2014 relative to 2013
AVERAGE HOUSE VALUATION FOR DECEMBER 2014 relative to December 2014, in the New Plymouth and South Taranaki Districts.
annual rate to December 2014 relative to 2013.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR NEW ZEALAND BY TARANAKI BUSINESSES
NUMBER OF GUEST NIGHTS BY VISITORS STAYING IN COMMERCIAL ACOMMODATION outlets within Taranaki for year ending December 2014 relative to 2013.
for the next 12 months.
VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONSENTS FOR YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 2014
HOME AFFORDABILITY WITHIN TARANAKI Relative to same period 12 months.
relative to the previous 12 month period.
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
PAGE 1
The Economy REGIONAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (REGIONAL GDP)
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) – NEW ZEALAND
-0.2%
REGIONAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) IS A GEOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF NATIONAL-LEVEL GDP, WHICH IS NEW ZEALAND’S OFFICIAL MEASURE OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. IT IS THE SAME CONCEPTUALLY AS NATIONAL GDP, WITH THE GDP OF EACH REGION SUMMING TO THE NATIONAL GDP TOTAL*.
0.8%
DEC 2014 QUARTER
ANNUAL CHANGE
CPI ANNUAL CHANGE 6.0
TARANAKI GDP:
NEW ZEALAND
YEAR ENDED MARCH 2014
OF NEW ZEALAND’S GDP
$9.2B
5.0 4.0
4.0%
3.0 2.0 1.0
Dec 14
Jun 14
Dec 13
Jun 13
Dec 12
Jun 12
Dec 11
Jun 11
Dec 10
Jun 10
Dec 09
Jun 09
Dec 08
Jun 08
Dec 07
Jun 07
Dec 06
Jun 06
Dec 05
Jun 05
0.0
MAIN SOURCE OF CPI INCREASE WERE HIGHER PRICES FOR CIGARETTES AND TOBACCO, INFLUENCED BY A TOBACCO TAX EXCISE DUTY RISE IN JANUARY 2014. PRICES FOR NEWLY BUILT HOUSES, RENTAL AND ELECTRICITY WERE ALSO UP. THE CHEAPER PETROL PRICE WAS THE MAIN DOWNWARD CONTRIBUTOR. PAGE 2
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
*
Regional GDP analysis has not yet been standardised and may vary by methodology and by the economic firms that produce such data. The following analysis has been undertaken by Statistics NZ.
5.4 5.1
Hawke’s Bay
5.6
Wellington
5.9
$1.721 $1.626
West Coast Gisborne
$60,000
$50 $50,000
10.0 10.1
7.2
4.4
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
$34,602
$39,442
Manawatu -Wanganui
Gisborne
$40,091 Hawke’s Bay
$34,825
$42,213 Bay of Plenty
Northland
$42,695
Tasman / Nelson
$46,684
$48,098 Waikato Otago
$51,051 Marlborough
$57,135
$52,306
$0 West Coast
$10,000
$53,054
$20,000
Canterbury
$30,000
$53,759
$40,000
Auckland
Southland
$60 $62,021
$70,000
Wellington
$80,000
$70
$30.204
$81.186
$80,297
$90,000
Taranaki
$2.282
$4.180
$5.502
$5.760
$6.354
$9.147
$9.170
$9.813
$80
$30.335
$20.576 $11.862
Marlborough
Tasman / Nelson
Southland
Northland
Hawke’s Bay
Manawatu -Wanganui
Taranaki
Otago
$0
Waikato
6.3
Manawatu -Wanganui
6.0
Bay of Plenty
6.4
West Coast
7.7
Otago
7.8
Taranaki
7.8
Auckland
8.0 Bay of Plenty
$10
Tasman / Nelson
10.3 Waikato
$20
Northland
10.6 Canterbury
$30
Canterbury
11.0
Southland
12.0 Wellington
$40
Marlborough
Auckland
$90
Gisborne
REGIONAL GDP 2014 $BILLION GDP PER CAPITA 2014
% CHANGE IN REGIONAL GDP 2013 - 2014
• OUR GDP INCREASED BY 7.2% RELATIVE TO 2013
• TARANAKI HAS THE HIGHEST GDP PER CAPITA ($80,297), FOLLOWED BY WELLINGTON ($62,021) AND SOUTHLAND ($57,135). THE NATIONAL AVERAGE BEING $51,319.
4.0
2.0
0.0
PAGE 3
Labour Market TARANAKI
NEW ZEALAND
TOTAL EMPLOYEE COUNT
TOTAL EMPLOYEE COUNT
50,690*
GROWTH IN EMPLOYEE NUMBERS 2013-2014
2.5%
TARANAKI
NEW ZEALAND
2.9%
2.7%
2014 EMPLOYMENT % BY TARANAKI DISTRICT
12,380 24% South Taranaki District
TARANAKI EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY 10,000 9,000 8,000
2,910 6%
7,000 6,000
Stratford District
5,000
35,400 70% New Plymouth District
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
New Plymouth District
Stratford
South Taranaki
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Retail
Retail
Agriculture
Health care and social services
Education, health and social services
Retail
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
Other Services
Arts & Recreation
Health Care & Social Assistance
Education & Training
Public Administration & Safety
Administrative & Support Services
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services
Financial & Insurance Services
Information Media & Telecommunications
Transport, Postal & Warehousing
Accommodation & Food
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste
* The regional employee count equates to the summation of employees within the three Taranaki District areas. This boundary differs slightly from the Taranaki regional boundary.
Construction
PAGE 4
Manufacturing
INDUSTRIES WHICH HAVE THE MOST EMPLOYEES
Mining
Agriculture Forestry & Fishing
0
DECEMBER QUARTER 2014 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE - REGIONAL COMPARISONS
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE - TARANAKI v NZ 8.0
10 9
7.0
8 6.0
7
5.0
6 5
4.0
4
3.0
3 2
2.0
1 1.0
Southland
Otago
Canterbury
West Coast
Marlborough
Tasman / Nelson
Wellington
Manawatu -Wanganui
Taranaki
Hawke’s Bay
Gisborne
Bay of Plenty
Waikato
Auckland
Dec 09 Mar 10 Jun 10 Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 Mar 14 Jun 14 Sep 14 Dec 14
Dec 08 Mar 09 Jun 09 Sep 09
Sep 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 Jun 08 Sep 08
Dec 06
Mar 07 Jun 07
Taranaki
Northland
0
0.0
New Zealand
TARANAKI HAS LOWER UNEMPLOYMENT AND A HIGHER PARTICIPATION RATE THAN THE NATIONAL AVERAGE. ANNUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE
TARANAKI
NEW ZEALAND
ANNUAL RATE TO DECEMBER 2014
ANNUAL RATE TO DECEMBER 2014
5.3%
5.8%
TARANAKI
69.3%
ANNUAL RATE TO DECEMBER 2014
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
NEW ZEALAND
68.9%
ANNUAL RATE TO DECEMBER 2014
PAGE 5
Business Numbers TARANAKI
TARANAKI BUSINESSES - NUMBER OF BUSINESSES BY INDUSTRY TYPE 2014
TARANAKI BUSINESSES
14,927
2.9%
NUMBER OF BUSINESSES
Agriculture , Forestry & Fishing Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services Construction Financial & Insurance Services Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Retail Trade Other Services Manufacturing Health Care & Social Assistance
OF NEW ZEALAND TOTAL
BUSINESS NUMBERS BY DISTRICT
Accommodation & Food Services Wholesale Trade
South Taranaki
61
%
29% 4,194
New Plymouth District
Transport, Postal & Warehousing Education & Training Administrative & Support Services Arts & Recreation Services Mining Public Administration & Safety Information Media & Telecommunications Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
8,906 Stratford
10% 1,488
INDUSTRIES THAT MAKE THE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTION TO BUSINESS NUMBERS New Plymouth District
Stratford
South Taranaki
Agriculture
Agriculture
Agriculture
Business services e.g. financial, rental ,real estate
Business services e.g. financial, rental, real estate
Business services e.g. financial, rental, real estate
Retail & wholesale
Construction
Construction
Construction
Retail
Retail
THE MAJORITY OF TARANAKI BUSINESSES ARE INVOLVED IN PRIMARY PRODUCTION, WHICH INCLUDES FARMING AND SERVICES TO AGRICULTURE.
Professional services, scientific, technical
PAGE 6
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
TARANAKI’S INDUSTRY STRENGTHS INCLUDE AGRICULTURE, ENERGY AND ENGINEERING, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN OUR COMPARATIVELY HIGHER EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION WITHIN THESE SECTORS RELATIVE TO THE NATIONAL AVERAGE.
BUSINESS - PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN 2013 - 2014 2.5
2.3
2.3
2.0
1.7
1.5 1.1 1.0 0.5
0.2
0.0 NZ
New Plymouth
Stratford
Taranaki
South Taranaki
COMPARATIVE EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION - NZ v TARANAKI 2014 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0
Taranaki
Other Services
Arts & Recreation
Health Care & Social Assistance
Education & Training
Public Administration & Safety
Administrative & Support Services
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services
Financial & Insurance Services
Information Media & Telecommunications
Transport, Postal & Warehousing
Accommodation & Food
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste
Manufacturing
Mining
Agriculture Forestry & Fishing
0.0
New Zealand
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
PAGE 7
Ma-ori Authorities and Trusts IN 2014, THERE WERE 970 MĀORI ENTERPRISES IN NEW ZEALAND, WHICH EXTENDS TO 1,194 WHEN INCLUDING THEIR ‘GEOGRAPHIC UNITS’ (E.G. BRANCH OFFICES). 8,500 EMPLOYEES WORK FOR THESE ORGANISATIONS.
NUMBER OF MĀORI AUTHORITIES / TRUSTS (GEOGRAPHIC UNITS) 350
327
300 246
250 200
111 78
100
75
72 57
50
45
45
Area outside regions
Wellington
Taranaki
Auckland
Hawke’s Bay
Gisborne
Northland
• Agriculture, forestry and fishing (27%)
Manawatu -Wanganui
3 0 South Island
• Rental, hiring and real estate services (41%) – predominantly rental or leasing agricultural land or other commercial property
129
Waikato
Three-quarters of all Māori enterprises were in three industries:
150
Bay of Plenty
A Māori enterprise is defined by Statistics NZ as a Māori authority or a Trust or a subsidiary of a Māori authority or Trust.*
• Financial and insurance services (10%) EMPLOYMENT WITHIN MĀORI AUTHORITIES / TRUSTS
Of the 1,194 Māori authorities/trusts, there were 45 recorded in Taranaki and they employed 130 people.
2,000 1,800
1,780
1,680
1,600 1,400
PAGE 8
580
600
480
470
400
220
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
Hawke’s Bay
Northland
Wellington
South Island
0
Gisborne
200 Waikato
• It is a business that is 50 percent or more owned by Māori authorities.
730
800
Auckland
• It is a commercial business that supports the Māori authority’s business and social activities, and sustains or builds a Māori authority’s asset base.
1,140
130
35 Area outside regions
• It is an enterprise (business) with a collectively managed asset that uses current Inland Revenue eligibility criteria to be a Māori authority (whether or not it elects to be a Māori authority for tax purposes)
1,000
1,250
Taranaki
1,200
Manawatu -Wanganui
conditions:
Bay of Plenty
* Māori Enterprise: An enterprise is treated as Māori enterprise if it meets one (or more) of these
Taranaki Economic Outlook NZ BUSINESS CONDITIONS - NEXT 12 MONTHS
1,000 TARANAKI BUSINESSES WERE SURVEYED IN NOVEMBER 2014 REGARDING THE STATE OF THE NEW ZEALAND ECONOMY AND TRADING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 MONTHS.
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%
• 31.3% ANTICIPATED IMPROVEMENT • 54.9% ANTICIPATED THE STATUS QUO WILL PREVAIL • 11% PREDICTED DETERIORATION • 3% WERE UNSURE
10%
Improve
Remain the same
Jun 14
Dec 14
Dec 13
Jun 13
Jun 12
Dec 12
Jun 11
Dec 11
Dec 10
Dec 09
May 10
Nov 08
Deteriorate
May 09
Nov 07
May 08
Nov 06
May 07
Nov 05
May 06
Nov 04
May 05
Nov 03
May 04
Nov 02
May 03
Nov 01
May 02
May 01
Nov 00
Don’t know
EMPLOYMENT - NEXT 6 MONTHS 90%
A TIGHTER TRADING AND EMPLOYMENT PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED FOR 2015.
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
Improve
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
Deteriorate
Jun 14
Dec 14
Jun 13
Dec 13
Jun 12
Dec 12
Jun 11
Dec 11
Dec 10
Dec 09
May 10
Nov 08
May 09
Nov 07
May 08
Nov 06
Remain the same
May 07
Nov 05
May 06
Nov 04
May 05
Nov 03
May 04
Nov 02
May 03
Nov 01
May 02
Nov 00
May 01
Nov 99
0% May 00
Nov 99
May 00
0%
Don’t know
PAGE 9
Population
TARANAKI’S REGIONAL POPULATION IS ALMOST 110,000 PEOPLE.
UNDER 5 YEARS - LOCATION OF HIGHEST NUMBERS WITHIN TARANAKI 600 504
312
306
300
NUMBER OF TARANAKI RESIDENTS UNDER 5 YEARS = 7,917. THIS IS 7.2% OF TOTAL TARANAKI POPULATION.
291
264
264
261
255
252
243
207
201
Marfell
330
Waitara East
400
Kahui
500
200 100
26
%
2,097
South Taranaki District
Stratford District
65% 5,139
PAGE 10
Westown
Inglewood
Fitzroy
Stratford West
Frankleigh
Waitara West
Hawera North
OVER 500 UNDER 5-YEAR-OLDS RESIDE IN THE BELL BLOCK AREA. Biggest growth areas in the region for under 5 year olds (2013 census relative to previous census, 2006):
9% 681
Hawera South
TARANAKI POPULATION UNDER 5 YEARS - NUMBERS AND LOCATION
Struan Park
Bell Block
0
New Plymouth District
• Bell Block +216 • Fitzroy +69 • Highlands Park +60 • Inglewood +66 • Merrilands +54 • Lepperton +45 • Hawera North (+54) & South (+60)
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
NATURAL POPULATION INCREASE
TARANAKI
NATURAL INCREASE IN POPULATION: TARANAKI DISTRICTS 2002 - 2014 YEAR END DECEMBER 500
0.1%
NEW ZEALAND
-2.5%
ANNUAL CHANGE IN BIRTHS 2013-2014
ANNUAL CHANGE IN BIRTHS 2013-2014
TARANAKI
NEW ZEALAND
ANNUAL CHANGE IN DEATHS 2013-2014
ANNUAL CHANGE IN DEATHS 2013-2014
400 300 200
8.2%
100 0 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
South Taranaki
New Plymouth District
2011
2012
2013
2014
Stratford
NATURAL POPULATION INCREASE 2005 - 2014 40,000
900
35,000
800 700 600
25,000 500 20,000
400
15,000
300
10,000
200
5,000
100
0
0 2005
2006
2007
2008 New Zealand
2009
2010
2011
Taranaki
2012
2013
2014
Taranaki
New Zealand
30,000
5.1%
THERE WERE 1,506 BIRTHS IN TARANAKI DURING 2014 AND 961 DEATHS, RESULTING IN A NATURAL POPULATION INCREASE OF 545. The natural population increase that occurred in Taranaki during 2014 was at a lower rate than the previous year, due to more deaths occurring in the New Plymouth and South Taranaki Districts and fewer births in New Plymouth District. New Zealand’s population continues to grow through natural increase however its rate of growth has also declined (down 10.2% in 2014).
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
PAGE 11
Migration - Long-term International Arrivals and Departures NET MIGRATION - TARANAKI DISTRICTS ANNUAL TO DECEMBER 2014
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION - ARRIVALS ANNUAL TO DECEMBER 2014 1,400
600
1,200
400
1,000
200
800
0
600
-200
400
-400
200
-600 2000
2001
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
South Taranaki
New Plymouth District
2010
2011
2012
2013
1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2003
2004
2005
2006
New Plymouth District
PAGE 12
2007
2008
South Taranaki
2005
2006
2007
2008
South Taranaki
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Stratford
There was a net gain of 492 people for Taranaki in 2014, due to international arrivals to the region exceeding international departures, predominantly driven by the New Plymouth District. This is a significant improvement on two years when there was a net loss of 341 people, and the year prior (2011) when there was a net loss of 451 people.
1,200
2002
2004
Stratford
1,400
2001
2003
New Plymouth District
2014
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION - DEPARTURES ANNUAL TO DECEMBER 2014
2000
2002
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Stratford TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
NET MIGRATION - TARANAKI YEAR ENDING DEC (2000 - 2014)
2014 TARANAKI NET MIGRATION - BY AGE YEAR ENDING DECEMBER
800
100
600
492
400
238
60
253
200
-137
0 -73
-200
-62
-5
20 -93
-89
-165
0 -341
-20
-451
-600 -800
40
56
-273
-400
-40
-670 2000
80
-60 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
TARANAKI EXPERIENCED A NET GAIN IN MIGRATION IN ALL AGE BRACKETS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 20-24 YEAR GROUPING.
0-4
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74
75+
THE NET MIGRATION LOSS OF 20-24 YEAR OLDS FROM THE TARANAKI REGION HAS DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS, TO THE EXTENT THAT IN 2014 IT WAS THE LOWEST SINCE 2003. TARANAKI NET MIGRATION 20 - 24 YEAR OLDS 2002 - 2014
0
2002
-50 -100
PEOPLE MAY LEAVE THE REGION TO GAIN INTERNATIONAL WORK, STUDY, TRAVEL AND EXTEND LIFE SKILLS.
5-9
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-41
-82
2010
2011
2012
2013
-43
-54
-115
-92
2014
-74 -112
-108
-123
-150 -200
-192
-202
-185
-250
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
PAGE 13
Work-Live Patterns in Taranaki % WORKING OUTSIDE RESIDENT SETTLEMENT BUT WITHIN TARANAKI
WITHIN TARANAKI THIS TREND IS MONITORED BY VENTURE TARANAKI IN ITS WORK-LIVE ANALYSIS WHICH FOCUSES ON THE FOLLOWING SETTLEMENTS: BELL BLOCK; COASTAL; ELTHAM; HAWERA; INGLEWOOD; MANAIA; NEW PLYMOUTH; OPUNAKE; PATEA; STRATFORD; WAITARA; WAVERLEY. DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT FROM WWW.TARANAKI.INFO
69
69
70
Coastal
Waitara
64
Inglewood
70 60
60
54 48
30
39
41
42
Hawera
34
Opunake
40
Eltham
50
25
20 10 Manaia
Patea
Bell Block
Stratford
Waverly
0 New Plymouth
HISTORICALLY PEOPLE TENDED TO LIVE AND WORK IN THE SAME TOWN BUT INCREASINGLY PEOPLE MAY LIVE IN ONE LOCATION & TRAVEL TO WORK IN ANOTHER.
80
INGLEWOOD – A SATELLITE TOWN: • 69% of Inglewood residents who work, travel outside Inglewood for their jobs – predominantly in New Plymouth or Bell Block. • Only 29% of people who live in Inglewood work there as well.
PAGE 14
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
WAITARA HAS THE HIGHEST PROPORTION OF PEOPLE WORKING OUTSIDE ITS TOWNSHIP (70%). WAITARA OFFERS HOUSING AND LIFESTYLE AMENITIES, WHILST BEING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES. OF THE 70% OF PEOPLE WHO WORK OUTSIDE WAITARA, 39% WORK IN BELL BLOCK AND 35% WORK IN NEW PLYMOUTH.
Waitara 2006
60% OF ELTHAM RESIDENTS WORK THERE AS WELL. THEIR AVERAGE INCOME IS $42,600. 39% OF PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN ELTHAM, WORK OUTSIDE ELTHAM; OF THESE 20% WORK IN STRATFORD.
Waitara 2013
Eltham 2006
Eltham 2013
27,700 29%
32,400 30%
35,800 60%
42,600 60%
34,700 69%
41,300 70%
38,600 38%
43,300 39%
33,600 2%
34,500 1%
33,600 2%
37,100 1%
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Source: Statistics New Zealand
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
PAGE 15
Housing AVERAGE VALUE OF A HOUSE DECEMBER 2014 $1,000,000
$907,819
$900,000
TARANAKI IS THE FOURTH MOST ATTRACTIVE REGION IN THE COUNTRY IN TERMS OF HOME AFFORDABILITY.
$800,000 $700,000 $600,000
$510,418
$500,000 $488,674 $357,617 $289,439 $201,493 $185,794
$242,304 $165,335
Less affordable
$100,000
0.4
0.5
0.9
-4
-0.5 -2.7
HOUSE VALUES - % CHANGE IN VALUE BETWEEN DECEMBER 2014 AND DECEMBER 2013 House valuations have continued to increase in the Taranaki region, particularly within the New Plymouth District. The average valuation of a house within the New Plymouth District is currently higher than the average house valuation in Napier and Palmerston North. The average house valuation in Stratford is higher than the South Taranaki District, which is, in turn, higher than Wanganui.
PAGE 16
HOWEVER, IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS TARANAKI’S HOME AFFORDABILITY DECLINED BY 7.1%. THIS WAS LESS THAN THE NATIONAL TREND WHERE NEW ZEALAND’S AVERAGE HOME AFFORDABILITY INDEX DECLINED 14.1%, AND IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DETERIORATE IN 2015. AUCKLAND REMAINS THE LEAST AFFORDABLE PLACE IN THE COUNTRY WITH ITS INDEX RISING MARGINALLY TO 40% ABOVE THAT FOR THE WHOLE COUNTRY.
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
Southland
Manawatu/ Wanganui
Otago
Taranaki
0.6
0 -2
Hawkes Bay
3.5 1.6
0 Auckland
4.9
5
Northland
4.9
10
Wellington
8
2
20
More affordable
10.4
4
30
15
10
6
35
25
Clutha
Selwyn District
Manawatu District
Palmerston North City
Wanganui
South Taranaki
Stratford
New Plymouth District
Napier City
Auckland City
New Zealand
$0
12
HOME AFFORDABILITY REGIONAL RANKING
Nelson/
$200,000
$182,365
Waikato/BOP
$300,000
Canterbury/ Westland
$328,251
Central Otago Lakes
$400,000
Rentals
550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
NEW PLYMOUTH
NEW ZEALAND
NEW PLYMOUTH
NEW ZEALAND
MEDIAN RENT FEBRUARY 2015
MEDIAN RENT FEBRUARY 2015
PERCENTAGE CHANGE FEBRUARY 2014 - 2015
PERCENTAGE CHANGE FEBRUARY 2014 - 2015
$310
$365
1.6%
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
Dunedin
Invercargill
Christchurch
Nelson
Wellington
Upper Hutt
Lower Hutt
Kapiti
Porirua
Palmerston North
Wanganui
New Plymouth
Napier
Hastings
Gisborne
Rotorua
Tauranga
Hamilton
Papakura
Manukau
Auckland
Waitakere
Whangarei
0 North Shore
THE RENTAL MARKET IN NEW PLYMOUTH INDICATES RENTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY (UP 1.6%) WITH THE AVERAGE WEEKLY RENT AT $310 PER WEEK. THIS COMPARES WITH A CURRENT AVERAGE RENTAL OF $365 PER WEEK ON A NATIONAL BASIS.
RENTS PER WEEK ($) - FEBRUARY 2015
4.3%
PAGE 17
Construction Activity VALUE OF BUILDING CONSENTS 2000-2014 250
200
$ Millions
FOR THE YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 2014 IN TARANAKI THERE WERE $310 MILLION OF BUILDING CONSENTS APPROVED.
150
100
TOTAL $ VALUE OF BUILDING CONSENTS COMMERCIAL & RESIDENTIAL YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 2014
50
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
New Plymouth District
57.5MILLION South Taranaki District
2006
2007
2008
South Taranaki
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Stratford
VALUE OF BUILDING CONSENTS - % CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR (ANNUAL TO DEC 2014)
21.4MILLION
45 38.6
40
Stratford District
35
231.1MILLION New Plymouth District
2004
30
30.7 27.2
25
20.7
20 15
11.9
10 5 0
PAGE 18
Taranaki
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
NZ
NPD
Stratford
South Taranaki
2014
VALUE OF RESIDENTIAL CONSENTS (NEW AND ALTERATIONS) YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 2014
TOTAL COMMERCIAL BUILDING CONSENTS YEAR ENDING 2014
160
100 90
140
80 120 70 60 $ Millions
$ Millions
100 80
50 40
60
30 40 20 20 0
10 0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
New Plymouth District
2006
2007
2008
South Taranaki
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2000
Stratford
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
New Plymouth District
RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION WITHIN THE NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT HAS REMAINED STRONG DURING 2014.
2006
2007
2008
South Taranaki
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Stratford
COMMERCIAL CONSTRUCTION WITHIN THE THREE TARANAKI DISTRICTS HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY ACTIVE DURING 2014 THIS INCLUDES HOTEL DEVELOPMENT, HOSPITAL/NURSING HOMES, SHOPS AND DAIRY FACTORY EXPANSION.
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
PAGE 19
Retail Sales
FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 2014, $581M WAS SPENT AT RETAIL MERCHANTS IN TARANAKI. SPENDING WITHIN TARANAKI JULY 2014 - DECEMBER 2014
RETAIL SPEND WITHIN TARANAKI DISTRICTS JULY-DEC 2014
$140m
17
%
$120m
South Taranaki District $99.93m
$100m $80m
8%
$60m $40m
Stratford District $46.85m
New Plymouth District Council $434.40m
75%
$20m $0 m July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
SPENDING WITHIN TARANAKI WAS UP 1.4% FOR THE HALF-YEAR, RELATIVE TO THE SAME PERIOD IN 2013, ALTHOUGH THIS WAS LESS THAN THE NEW ZEALAND AVERAGE OF 5.5%.
PAGE 20
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
Online Sales TARANAKI: MONTHLY PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN RETAIL SALES (JULY T0 DECEMBER 2014) COMPARED WITH THE SAME PERIOD IN 2013 6%
5.5% 3.6%
4%
3.3% 2.0%
2% 0%
-0.5%
-2%
TARANAKI RESIDENTS INCREASED THEIR ONLINE SPENDING DURING THE DECEMBER 2014 QUARTER RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS YEAR (5.4%). THIS OCCURED AT A MUCH HIGHER RATE THAN THEIR EXPENDITURE AT PHYSICAL STORES. HOWEVER THE REGIONAL GROWTH IN ONLINE SHOPPING IN TARANAKI IS LESS THAN THE NATIONAL AVERAGE OF 6.4%.
-4% -6%
-4.3% July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
TARANAKI GROWTH IN ONLINE SALES v TOTAL RETAIL SALES 25%
STRONGEST RETAIL GROWTH WAS RECORDED IN THE STRATFORD DISTRICT WITH A 4.6% GAIN.
20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5%
Mar 2013
PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN RETAIL SPEND JULY - DEC 2014 COMPARED WITH SAME PERIOD 2013 5%
4.6%
Jun 2013
Sep 2013
Dec 2013
Online Sales
Mar 2014
Jun 2014
Sep 2014
Dec 2014
Total Sales
KEY AREAS OF ONLINE SPENDING INCLUDE DEPARTMENT, VARIETY AND ‘OTHER’, FOLLOWED BY GROCERIES AND LIQUOR.
4% 3% 2% 1.1%
1.1% 1% 0% New Plymouth
Stratford
South Taranaki
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
PAGE 21
Visitor Industry TARANAKI DISTRICT COMMERCIAL GUEST NIGHT
TARANAKI
-6.2%
PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN GUEST NIGHTS YEAR ENDING DEC 2014
70,000
NEW ZEALAND
5.8%
60,000 50,000
PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN GUEST NIGHTS YEAR ENDING DEC 2014
40,000 30,000 20,000
South Taranaki
New Plymouth District
Nov 14
Stratford
AVERAGE LENGTH OF STAY IN COMMERCIAL ACCOMMODATION 3.5 3 2.5
• Guest nights fell 6.2 percent to 553,209 2
• International guest nights fell 19.9 percent to 70,656
New Plymouth District PAGE 22
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
South Taranaki
Stratford
Dec 14
Nov 14
Oct 14
Sep 14
Aug 14
Jul 14
Jun 14
May 14
Apr 14
Mar 14
Jan 14
Feb 14
Dec 13
Nov 13
Oct 13
Sep 13
Aug 13
Jul 13
Jun 13
May 13
Apr 13
0 Mar 13
• The occupancy rate, excluding holiday parks, was 45.3 percent
0.5
Feb 13
• The overall occupancy rate fell from 34.4 percent to 32.9 percent
1
Jan 13
• The average length of stay fell from 2.20 nights to 2.04 nights
1.5
Dec 12
• Domestic guest nights fell 3.8 percent to 482,553
Dec 14
Oct 14
Sep 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Jun 14
May 14
Apr 14
Mar 14
Jan 14
Feb 14
Nov 13
Dec 13
Oct 13
Sep 13
Jul 13
Aug 13
Jun 13
May 13
Apr 13
Mar 13
Jan 13
Feb 13
0
Dec 12
TARANAKI 2014 COMMERCIAL ACCOMMODATION RESULTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED DECEMBER COMPARED WITH 2013:
10,000
2014 PROVED A MORE CHALLENGING YEAR FOR COMMERCIAL ACCOMMODATION OUTLETS WITHIN THE REGION. COMMERCIAL GUEST NIGHT % GROWTH BY ACCOMMODATION TYPE 2013-2014
TARANAKI VISITOR ARRIVAL % CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR - YEAR ENDING DEC 16 14
15
12
10
10
5
8
0
6
-5
4
-10
2
-15
Hotels
Motels
Backpackers
Total
Holiday Parks
0 -2
Taranaki NZ
-4 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
TARANAKI GUEST NIGHTS BY ACCOMMODATION TYPE YEAR ENDING 2014 Taranaki NZ
8%
Backpackers
45%
Holiday Parks
Motels Hotels
25% 22%
MOTELS COMPRISED 45% OF TARANAKI’S TOTAL COMMERCIAL GUEST NIGHTS FOR 2014. ALTHOUGH GUEST NIGHTS WERE DOWN, VISITOR ARRIVALS WERE UP ON 2013, SUGGESTING VISITORS STAYED A SHORTER PERIOD. TARANAKI’S RATE OF GROWTH WAS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE NEW ZEALAND AVERAGE.
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
PAGE 23
Visitor Industry
TARANAKI
TARANAKI’S OVERALL OCCUPANCY RATE FOR THE YEAR WAS 32.9%. WHEN HOLIDAY PARKS ARE EXCLUDED FROM THIS ANALYSIS, TARANAKI’S OCCUPANCY RATE WAS 45.3%.
TARANAKI
45.3%
32.9%
OCCUPANCY RATE HOLIDAY PARKS EXCLUDED
• THE AVERAGE LENGTH OF STAY BY GUESTS IN TARANAKI DIFFERS BY ACCOMMODATION TYPE:
OCCUPANCY RATE HOLIDAY PARKS INCLUDED
• HOTELS: 1.88 NIGHTS • MOTELS/APARTMENTS: 1.85 NIGHTS • BACKPACKERS: 2.57 NIGHTS
New Zealand
PAGE 24
New Plymouth District
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
South Taranaki
Stratford
Nov 14
Dec 14
Oct 14
Sep 14
Aug 14
Jul 14
Jun 14
Apr 14
May 14
Mar 14
Jan 14
Feb 14
Dec 13
Nov 13
Oct 13
Sep 13
Aug 13
Jul 13
Jun 13
Apr 13
Feb 13
Taranaki
Mar 13
Jan 13
Dec 12
Dec 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Sep 14
Aug 14
Jul 14
Jun 14
May 14
Apr 14
Feb 14
0 Mar 14
0 Jan 14
10
Dec 13
10
Oct 13
20
Nov 13
20
Sep 13
30
Aug 13
30
Jul 13
40
Jun 13
40
May 13
50
Apr 13
50
Feb 13
60
Mar 13
60
Jan 13
OCCUPANCY RATE
Dec 12
OCCUPANCY RATE TARANAKI v NEW ZEALAND
May 13
• HOLIDAY PARKS: 2.53 NIGHTS
Visitors Staying with Friends and Relatives (VFR) PURPOSE OF VISIT (%) - VISITORS STAYING WITH FAMILY OR FRIENDS DECEMBER 2014
VFR GUEST NIGHTS YEAR ENDING DECEMBER
Other 2011
Sports/Hobbies/Recreation Business
2012
Conference General Holiday/Leisure
2014
2013
Visiting Family or Friends
0
200
400
650
800 Thousands
1000
2000
3000
4000
0
GUEST NIGHTS IN TARANAKI FROM VISITORS STAYING WITH FRIENDS AND FAMILY DURING 2014 200,000 180,000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
OVER 1.1 MILLION VFR GUEST NIGHTS WERE RECORDED IN 2014. This is an increase of 10.9% over 2013, December and January are the prime months for the region’s influx of VFR guests.
160,000
VFR VISITORS - COMPOSITION 2014
140,000 120,000 100,000
30%
80,000 60,000
International
40,000 20,000 0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
70%
Domestic
Venture Taranaki commissions an independent monthly phone survey of Taranaki households, to monitor visitors to the region who stay with friends and relatives. Although they do not stay at commercial accommodation, they still make an important contribution to our regional economy through their other forms of expenditure. TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
PAGE 25
Visitor Expenditure
VISITORS TO TARANAKI SPENT ALMOST $59 MILLION AT OUR RETAIL OUTLETS DURING THE 6 MONTH PERIOD ENDING DECEMBER 2014. OF THIS, OVER $45.8M WAS SPENT WITHIN THE NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT, $4.3M IN STRATFORD AND $8.8M WAS SPENT WITHIN THE SOUTH TARANAKI DISTRICT.
50 45 40 35 30 Millions
$51M WAS DOMESTIC VISITOR EXPENDITURE, WITH THE BALANCE FROM INTERNATIONAL VISITORS.
VISITOR EXPENDITURE IN TARANAKI - 6 MONTHS ENDING DEC 2014 $M
25 20 15 10 5 0 New Plymouth District
Stratford International expenditure
PAGE 26
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
South Taranaki Domestic expenditure
Airport Movements
OVER 340,000 PASSENGERS UTILISED THE NEW PLYMOUTH AIRPORT DURING 2014 – THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED.
NEW PLYMOUTH AIRPORT PASSENGERS - GROWTH ON PREVIOUS YEAR (%) 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15
NEW PLYMOUTH AIRPORT - TOTAL PASSENGER MOVEMENTS - YEAR TO DEC
250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
0
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
3006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
300,000
1999
1998
350,000
PASSENGER MOVEMENTS ARE 125% HIGHER NOW THAN THEY WERE FIFTEEN YEARS AGO – REFLECTING THE PROGRESS AND INCREASING ATTRACTIVENESS OF TARANAKI, ITS LIFESTYLE AND ECONOMY.
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
PAGE 27
Technical Details
Consumer Price Index (CPI): Statistics NZ. The CPI measures the rate of price change of goods and services purchased by New Zealand households. Statistics NZ visits 3,000 shops around New Zealand to collect prices for the CPI and check product sizes and features.
Average household weekly income: Statistics NZ: Weekly household income is the sum of weekly income of all people in the household from all sources. Average weekly household income is total weekly household income, divided by the number of households.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Statistics NZ.
House values and average value of a house: Source: QV.co.nz: QV.co.nz is powered by PropertyIQ, a joint venture between CoreLogic and Quotable Value. Note: these are house valuations, not house sales.
Economic Activity: ANZ Regional Trends. Note: this information is not GDP data but a composition of specific indicators selected by the ANZ e.g. retail sales, employment data, house sales, guest nights, car sales etc. The report tracks the overall summation of changes on a regional basis annually and quarterly. Economic Outlook: Venture Taranaki. This reflects the results of VT’s Six-monthly business survey of Taranaki businesses. The survey involved a cross-section of 1000 businesses. The survey is undertaken in June and November of each year. Employee Count: Statistics NZ Business demography. Business demographic statistics give an annual snapshot (as at February); limited to economically significant individual, private-sector and public-sector enterprises that are engaged in the production of goods and services in New Zealand; generally includes all employing units and those enterprises with GST turnover greater than $30,000 per year. Employee count is a head-count of all salary and wage earners for the February reference month. NB: this may not include self-employed or those within the business that are not classified as employees. Unemployment rate and Participation Rate: Statistics NZ Household Labour Force survey. Employment Outlook: Taranaki: Venture Taranaki. Six-monthly business survey of Taranaki businesses, undertaken June 2013. Skill shortage monitor: Venture Taranaki. Six-monthly business survey of Taranaki businesses, undertaken May and November each year.
House Sales: Real Estate Institute of NZ. Note: These are house sales, and the data only includes those sales undertaken by members of the REINZ. Does not include e.g. private sales. Home Affordability: Massey University Home Affordability Report. Rental Market: Massey University Rental market report. Building consents: Statistics NZ Agriculture: Statistics NZ. Annual Agriculture Production Survey. Farm Capital Improvements/Farm building consents: Statistics NZ Farm Sales: Real Estate Institute of NZ. Note: Only includes sales undertaken by members of the REINZ. Does not include private or other means of selling farms. Retail Statistics: Market View customized research for Venture Taranaki utilizing EFTPOS sales and BNZ credit cards. Commercial accommodation statistics: Statistics NZ Visitors staying with friends/relatives: Venture Taranaki commissioned survey data, undertaken by APR consultants.
Business numbers: Statistics NZ Business demography, undertaken February each year.
Exports/Imports: Statistics NZ data. Note: this data may not include coastal trade and the methodology utilized by Statistics NZ may not reflect the totality of trade activity which occurs across each NZ Port as part of the overall port transportation process.
Population count: Statistics NZ. Census Natural Population Increase: Statistics NZ: Births and Deaths Migration: Statistics NZ. Permanent Long-term departures and Arrivals. Permanent and long-term arrivals include overseas migrants who arrive in New Zealand intending to stay for a period of 12 months or more (or permanently), plus New Zealand residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more. Permanent and long-term departures include New Zealand residents departing for an intended period of 12 months or more (or permanently), plus overseas visitors departing New Zealand after a stay of 12 months or more.
Total Port Taranaki data and activity: Provided by Port Taranaki. This data includes coastal trade and the summation of all exports and imports crossing the port. New Plymouth Airport passenger movements: Provided by New Plymouth District Council.
Average weekly earnings: Statistics NZ: Total usual weekly earnings from self-employment and wage and salary jobs (earnings from paid employment), divided by the number of people receiving earnings from a self-employment or wage and salary job (number of people in paid employment).
PAGE 28
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
About Venture Taranaki
As Taranaki’s Regional Development Agency, we’re committed to helping Taranaki grow. That’s why we’re interested in helping to make your business a success. If you need advice and assistance or access to information and knowledge to support your business aspiration, we offer a single point of contact to provide the help you require. If you are: • Thinking of starting up a business • Considering relocating or investing in Taranaki • Trying to grow your business, or if your business is going through changes We have a range of products and services to meet your business needs, and best of all, most of them are free! Information is available on-line at www.business.taranaki.info or call us:
Venture Taranaki 9 Robe Street PO Box 670 New Plymouth Telephone (06) 759 5150 Email: info@taranaki.info Facebook: TaranakiNZ Twitter: @Taranaki_NZ Disclaimer: Venture Taranaki’s services and opinions are of a general nature and should be used as a guide only. They are not a substitute for commercial judgment or independent professional advice which should be obtained prior to any business matter. While every effort has been made to ensure that the information, opinions and forecasts provided are accurate and reliable, Venture Taranaki shall not be liable for any adverse consequences of decisions made in reliance of any report provided in this publication.
TA R A N A K I T R E N D S W I N T E R 2 0 1 5
PAGE 29
Taranaki’s Regional Development Agency 9 Robe Street | PO Box 670 | New Plymouth P. (06) 759 5150 | F. (06) 759 5154 E. info@taranaki.info
TGM CREATIVE 02968
www.taranaki.info