Trends Summer 2020 Taranaki Facts & Figures
An initiative of New Plymouth District Council.
Total Taranaki Retail spend down 15.2% since April 2020 – while NZ’s is down 21.6% for the same period
Real estate market is busy. Taranaki experiencing lowest ‘time to sell’ for residential properties for over 10 years.
Impacts of border closures not as widely felt in Taranaki compared to other regions
22% increase in Taranaki residents on ‘Jobseeker support’ since March 2020
Welcome Taranaki Trends is produced by Venture Taranaki as a 6-monthly economic snapshot of our region’s performance. As such, it provides a range of metrics, represented as digestible charts and graphs, to help inform the region’s leadership, enterprises and investors. The dynamic situation over recent months – the result of the global COVID-19 pandemic – is played out in this data set (the first since New Zealand saw the pandemic reaching our shores). This edition of Taranaki Trends therefore presents a valuable 'post-COVID' snapshot of the region's economy six months on. This edition is important as we look at the immediate impacts of the COVID lockdowns and restrictions, and how our 'return to better' is being achieved. This edition explores changes to our economy, consumer spending and other notable changes that Taranaki has been required to address in the face of change and crisis. Data is up-to-date as available at the time of publication. Please see notes in content and Notes page at the end of the document for further detail on sources. Photo credit: Laura Warren
2
Contents Welcome
2
Population trends
4
Economy
5
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
6 7
Regional spotlights Migration trends
11
Employment
12
Construction sector
17
Housing trends
21
Retail sector
24
Hospitality sector
30
Tourism sector
31
Traffic Movements
36
Meat sector
40 44
Looking ahead Notes Summary
45 40
3
Population
New Zealand population: 4,699,755
Taranaki population: 117,561
Males: 58,251
New Plymouth District population: 80,679
MÄ ori population: 23,298 (19.8% of Taranaki population)
Females: 59,310
Stratford District population: 9,474
South Taranaki District population: 27,534
Source: Statistics NZ, 2018 Census
4
Taranaki’s Top 3 exports:
Economy Taranaki businesses: 15,519
Dairy: $1.9B New Zealand GDP: $298B
Taranaki GDP: $9.3B
Taranaki export GDP: $4.6B
Taranaki’s largest industry categories by business units:
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing: 4020 business units
Rental, Hiring & Real Estate: 2907 business units
Construction: 1434 business units
Meat: $793m
Forestry: $456m Source: Statistics NZ, Infometrics 2019 5
Greenhouse gas emissions and intensity Estimates of Taranaki’s greenhouse gas emissions were published in July 2020 for the first time by Statistics New Zealand and create a baseline of our regional emissions. Regions differ in terms of the amount of greenhouse gases they produce, due to the structure and size of their respective economies, their population size and structure, and their use of different technologies. Emissions were allocated to a particular region where the industry or household is resident. This means that a production perspective has been used in allocating emissions (i.e. the point at which the emission is generated from economic activity and flows through to the environment, not the end user). In 2018, energy was the largest contributor to Taranaki's carbon dioxide emissions, with agriculture being the next highest contributor. It is worth noting that all New Zealand’s gas use is attributed to Taranaki.
Percentage contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and GDP, by region in 2018 Auckland Wellington Canterbury Waikato Bay of Plenty Otago Manawatū-Whanganui Taranaki Hawke's Bay Northland Southland Tasman/Nelson Marlborough Gisborne West Coast
2.9%
-
7.1%
5.0
10.0
15.0
% contribution to GDP in 2018
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
% of total emissions
Taranaki kilotonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by source (2007-2018) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 -
2007
2008
2009
Energy
2010 Agriculture
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Industrial processes and product use
2016
2017
2018
Waste
Source: Statistics NZ
6
Regional Spotlight: Waitara East
Population: 2,907 Median age: 40.5 years Māori median age: 26.2 years Most popular occupation: Labourers (24.9%) Median income*: $24,500 Employed full-time: 43.9% Unemployed: 6.6% Born in New Zealand: 93.4% Māori ethnic group: 44.1% Te reo Māori speakers: 12.1% NZ Sign Language: 0.5% No qualifications held*: 34% Studying full-time: 19.7% Studying part-time: 2.8% Occupied private dwellings: 1,080 Live in owned or partly owned home: 59.3% Median weekly rent: $250 * Median income received is the total before-tax income of a person (aged 15 years and over), in the 12 months ended 31 March 2018. ** This data set only includes those aged 15 years and over
Source: Statistics NZ, Census 2018 7
Regional Spotlight: Whangamomona
Population: 126 Median age: 49.7 years Māori median age: 37.5 years Most popular occupation: Managers (51.7%) Median income*: $26,000 Employed full-time: 60% Unemployed: 2.9% Born in New Zealand: 92.9% Māori ethnic group: 14.3% Te reo Māori speakers: 4.8% NZ Sign Language: 0% No qualifications held**: 32.4% Studying full-time: 14.3% Studying part-time: 0% Occupied private dwellings: 57 Live in owned or partly owned home: 38.9% Median weekly rent: $180
* Median income received is the total before-tax income of a person (aged 15 years and over), in the 12 months ended 31 March 2018. ** This data set only includes those aged 15 years and over
Source: Statistics NZ, Census 2018 8
Regional Spotlight: Ōpunakē
Population: 1,401 Median age: 44.2 years Māori median age: 28.7 years Most popular occupation: Managers (19.9%) Median income*: $23,000 Employed full-time: 37.3% Unemployed: 4.8% Born in New Zealand: 88.3% Māori ethnic group: 37.7% Te reo Māori speakers: 8.1% NZ Sign Language: 0.6% No qualifications held**: 33.3% Studying full-time: 18% Studying part-time: 3% Occupied private dwellings: 573 Live in owned or partly owned home: 55.8% Median weekly rent: $200
* Median income received is the total before-tax income of a person (aged 15 years and over), in the 12 months ended 31 March 2018. ** This data set only includes those aged 15 years and over
Source: Statistics NZ, Census 2018 9
COVID-19 regional impacts
Permanent and long-term migration to Taranaki Permanent and long-term migration into Taranaki 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Jan/17
May/17
Sep/17
Jan/18
May/18
New Plymouth District
This graph indicates permanent and long-term international arrivals into Taranaki. To be counted in this data set people must be arriving for a stay of 12 months or more, or be New Zealanders returning after an absence of 12 months or more.
Sep/18
Jan/19
Stratford District
May/19
Sep/19
Jan/20
May/20
South Taranaki District
From April 2020 there has been a sharp decline in the number of people migrating/returning to Taranaki, although the numbers for the Stratford and South Taranaki Districts remain relatively unchanged.
For the six months preceding June 2020, Taranaki had only received 451 permanent and long-term migrants/returnees, compared to a total of 1259 in the 2019 calendar year.
Source: Statistics NZ
11
Employment 12
Taranaki Jobseeker support There has been a 96% increase in the number of people on the COVID-19 Income Relief Payment (CIRP) support from June to August (212 people to 416 people).
Taranaki Jobseeker and COVID-19 Income Relief Payment (CIRP) Recipients 6000
The number of people on CIRP support has increased as this relief payment became available.
5000
There were 1,261 more people on Jobseeker support in August 2020 (5022 people), compared to August 2019 (3761 people). This represents a 33.5% increase.
3000
4000
2000 1000 0
In August 2020, there were 5,022 people in Taranaki on Jobseeker support and 416 on CIRP support.
Apr-19
Jul 19
Oct 19
Jan 20
Sum of Jobseeker Support
Apr 20
Jul 20
Sum of CIRP
COVID-19 Income Relief Payment (CIRP) - People who lose their job between 1 March 2020 and 30 October 2020 can apply for CIRP from 8 June until 13 November 2020 and receive payments for up to 12 weeks. The numbers reported are of those eligible, aged 16 years and older.1
Source: Ministry of Social Development
13
Taranaki Jobseeker support – by district In August 2020 there were 7,149 CIRP grants nationally, 416 of these were within Taranaki. It is reported by the Ministry of Social Development that those on CIRP payments are "relatively younger, have a proportionately low benefit history and have comparatively higher incomes than most who seek support�. Nationally, 6.6% of the population received Jobseeker support. In Taranaki, 6.7% of the population received this support. Throughout the region, the number of people on Jobseeker support is up 53% in the New Plymouth district, 50% in Stratford district and 34.6% in the South Taranaki district, on the last 12 months. This excludes those on the CIRP.
New Plymouth District 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
Aug 19
Feb 20
New Plymouth District Jobseeker
May 20
Aug 20
New Plymouth District CIRP
South Taranaki District
Stratford District 350
1,200
300
1,000
250
800
200
600
150
400
100
200
50 0
Nov 19
0 Aug 19
Nov 19
Feb 20
Stratford District Jobseeker
May 20 Stratford District CIRP
Aug 20
Aug 19
Nov 19
Feb 20
South Taranaki District Jobseeker
May 20
Aug 20
South Taranaki District CIRP
Source: Ministry of Social Development
14
Unemployment within Taranaki
Taranaki’s unemployment rate at 30 June was 4.3%
Regional unemployment rates (YE June 2020)
Percentage
Regional unemployment rate 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0
4
3.8
4.1
4.1
4.3
4.6
4.1
3
4.7 3.8
4 3.2
3.7
3.9
Unemployment rates in Taranaki 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
At the end of March 2020, unemployment in Taranaki was at 3.7%, and this had increased to 4.3% for the year ending June 2020. The national unemployment rate was 4.2% and is now down to 4%. Nationally, the unemployment rate for men declined (7,000 additional men into jobs), while for women the rate increased (1,000 additional women unemployed) – for the quarter ending June 2020.
Source: Statistics NZ
15
Taranaki NEET Rates Youth (15-24 years) not in employment, education or training Taranaki had been experiencing a decline in the NEET* rate from 2017–2019; however, 2020 has seen the NEET rate increase to 16.3%. This rate is still well above the national NEET rate of 12.4%.
Youth NEET Rates (YE-June) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
17.5 12.2
12.7
13.7
The Taranaki NEET rate for people aged 15-19 years is 13.8% and those 20-24 years is 19.1%. There are significantly more young women not in employment, education or training, compared to young men. *Not in Education, Employment or Training
15.4
16.3 12.3
10.2
11.6
10.2
11.6
11.5
12.6
10.8
12.2
Taranaki vs NZ NEET rates Taranaki and National NEET Rate (YE-June) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Taranaki NEET Rate
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
National NEET Rate
Source: Statistics NZ
16
Construction 17
Construction in Taranaki Total value of building consents issued in Taranaki: $362,169,799 YE July 2020 400,000,000 350,000,000 300,000,000 250,000,000 200,000,000 150,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 New Plymouth District
Stratford District
South Taranaki District
Percentage change in total consents value YE July 2020 vs July 2019 10.00%
8.9%
8.00% 6.00%
5.9%
6.7%
The total value of all building consents processed in Taranaki in the 12 months ending July 2020 ($362,169,799) is up 6.5% compared to the 12 months ending July 2019 ($340,185,435).
6.5%
4.00%
Total value of consents for the whole of New Zealand decreased by 1.2% over the same period.
2.00% 0.00% -2.00%
New Plymouth District
Stratford District
South Taranaki Total Taranaki District
-1.2% Total NZ
Source: Statistics NZ
18
Value of building consents in Taranaki Taranaki region: $362,169,799 (YE July 2020)
Total building consents, monthly value 40,000,000
New Plymouth district accounts for 79% of all building consents processed in the region, Stratford district accounts for 5% and the remaining 16% were processed in the South Taranaki district.
35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0
New Plymouth District
Stratford District
South Taranaki District
Source: Statistics NZ
19
Value of residential vs all construction YE August 2020 By Territorial Authority New Plymouth District Building Consents 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0
Stratford District Building Consents 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0
All construction
Residential buildings
South Taranaki District Building Consents 10,000,000 8,000,000
All construction
Residential buildings
Both New Plymouth and Stratford districts experienced a dip in building activity over lockdown; however, in South Taranaki, the lockdown decline affected residential consents only.
6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0
All construction
Residential buildings
Source: Statistics NZ 20
Housing
21
House volumes sold in Taranaki Monthly House volume sold 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Jan-19
Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19 Sep-19
New Plymouth District
Taranaki experienced a drop in the number of houses sold in April and May 2020, coinciding with the COVID-19 lockdown; however, by June sales figures had returned to 178 homes sold. South Taranaki district experienced an earlier rebound of housing sales, with the New Plymouth and Stratford districts not peaking in sales until July, although both of these peaks were higher than typically experienced by each respective district.
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19
Jan-20
South Taranaki District
Taranaki had the lowest August ‘days to sell’ since records began, down 11 days from 35 days in August 2019 to 24 days in August 2020. Inventory levels in the region are also at their lowest since records began, with a total of only 284 properties. REINZ identifies that with limited properties for sale, first home buyers remain very active, but many are missing out due to multi-offers on most properties. Low interest rates are attracting potential
Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Stratford District
investors who are competing with first home buyers. Many potential vendors are renovating their existing homes rather than moving due to the lack of choice or availability on the market. REINZ expects that the market should remain ‘reasonably steady’ for the region.
Source: Infometrics (REINZ)
22
Median price of houses sold in Taranaki House prices have also remained buoyant. The region saw median house prices reach a new record high of $451,000 with South Taranaki district achieving a new record median price of $315,000. The value of houses in Taranaki increased across the board in 2020. House prices increased by 20.8% in Stratford, 13.9% in South Taranaki and 9.6% in New Plymouth district.
The national median house price for the month of August 2020 was $675,000 – up 16.4% on August 2019
Median price - August 2020 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000
$508,000
$600,000
$315,000 $310,000
$400,000 $200,000 $0
Median price per region - August 2020 $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0
Median price percentage change - Aug 2020 vs. Aug 2019 $451,000
25% 20%
16.2%
15% 10% 5% 0%
Source: REINZ
23
Retail
24
Retail: Taranaki regional barometer
Consumer spend - previous 24 months $120,000,000 $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $0
Jun-18
Oct-18 New Plymouth District
Feb-19
Jun-19 Stratford District
Oct-19
Feb-20
South Taranaki District
Jun-20
The downturn in retail spend during the first Alert Level 4 lockdown is very noticeable across New Zealand in the chart above. Taranaki had a stronger recovery once restrictions eased in June and has maintained a higher baseline than the main cities. It is also apparent in the chart the decline in activity in Auckland during the regional Alert Level 3 lockdown, and the upswing in spend over the rest of the country in early August. Taranaki continued to maintain strong consumer spending through the recent Alert Level 2 restrictions.2 Source: MarketView
25
Retail: Taranaki regional barometer
Total retail spend within Taranaki for the year ending June: $1,356,480,267
12 months ending June 2020 compared to June 2019 Total Regional Spend YE June 2020
$600,000,000
$491,722,178
$500,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000 $152,002,118
$200,000,000 $100,000,000 $-
$39,886,826
$64,292,628
Accommodation
Apparel & Personal
$168,375,394
$207,071,235
$141,728,209 $33,142,745
Cafes, Restaurants, bars & takeaways
Department stores & Leisure
Fuel & Automotive
Groceries & liquor
Home, Hardware & Electrical
Other Customer Spending
Percentage change in regional spend YE June 2020 0.00%
Accommodation
Apparel & Personal
Cafes, Restaurants, bars & Department takeaways stores & Leisure
Fuel & Automotive
-2.00% -4.00% -6.00%
Groceries & liquor
Home, Hardware & Electrical
-1.6%
-1.8%
Other Customer Spending
NB: total spend includes a COVID aggregation which is not reflected in the categories analysed.2
-5.4%
-8.00%
-7.0%
-10.00%
-8.0%
-12.00% -14.00%
-13.0%
-12.2%
-16.00% -18.00%
-16.7%
Source: MarketView 26
Retail: New Plymouth district barometer
12 months ending June 2020 compared to June 2019
New Plymouth district percentage change in district spend year-ending to June 2020 0%
Accommodation
Apparel & Personal
Cafes, Restaurants, bars & takeaways
Department stores & Leisure
Fuel & Automotive
Groceries & liquor
-2.5%
-5%
-6.9% -10%
Home, Hardware & Electrical
Other Customer Spending
-3.6%
-5.4% -8.5%
-11.7% -15%
-13.8%
-20%
-20.0%
-25%
Retail spend within district: $1,015,624,351
-2.2%: Change in spend -6.1%: Change in number of transactions 4.1%: Change in average transaction value $44.48: Average transaction value
Source: MarketView
27
Retail: Stratford district barometer 12 months ending June 2020 compared to June 2019
Stratford district percentage change in spend year-ending June 2020 10%
Accommodation
Apparel & Personal
Cafes, Restaurants, Department stores & bars & takeaways Leisure Fuel & Automotive
Groceries & liquor
Home, Hardware & Electrical
Other Customer Spending 7.8%
5% 0% -0.6%
-1.0%
-1.2%
-5% -10% -10.4%
-11.0%
-15% -20% -25%
-17.5% -22.0%
Retail spend within district: $108,754,173
0.3%: Change in spend -7.1%: Change in number of transactions 8.0%: Change in average transaction value $45.37: Average transaction value
Source: MarketView 28
Retail: South Taranaki district barometer 12 months ending June 2020 compared to June 2019
South Taranaki district percentage change in district spend year-ending June 2020 10%
Accommodation
Apparel & Personal
Cafes, Restaurants, Department stores & bars & takeaways Leisure
Fuel & Automotive
Groceries & liquor
Home, Hardware & Electrical
Other Customer Spending
8.5%
5% 1.4% 0%
-5%
-3.0%
-4.5% -6.4%
-4.5%
-6.6%
-10%
-15%
-13.4%
Retail spend within district: $232,101,744
4.2%: Change in spend -2.9%: Change in number of transactions 7.4%: Change in average transaction value $40.50: Average transaction value
Source: MarketView 29
Hospitality in Taranaki
Total guest nights in commercial accommodation in Taranaki during August 2020 34,700
Number of hospitality businesses in Taranaki 600
504
500 369
400 300
Average nights stayed per guest in Taranaki 2.4
200 96
100
39
0
Taranaki
New Plymouth
South Taranaki
Stratford
Accommodation and food sector businesses in Taranaki have been significantly impacted from COVID-19 restrictions. We look at the value of the sector to the region since 2000 within these charts.4
Number of people employed by hospitality businesses in Taranaki 4000
3550
3500 3000 2900
2500 2000 1500 1000 500
460 210
0
Taranaki
New Plymouth
South Taranaki
Stratford
Contribution to regional GDP in 2019 $106.2m (1.1%) Source: NZ.Stat, Infometrics, ADP
30
Tourism
31
Tourism spend by region
Percentage change in total spend – YE August 2020
0%
-5%
-8% -10%
-10%
-10%
-10%
-7%
-7%
-9%
-11% -13% -15% -15% -18% -20% -20%
-25%
-20%
-20%
-15%
-12%
Tourism has faced significant challenges in recent months due to lockdowns and border restrictions as a result of COVID-19. Taranaki, along with other regions, has lost tourism spend, however, has fared better than some other regions. Source: MBIE
32
Tourism spend by district Annual tourism spend in Taranaki – Year ending August 2020 $450m $400m $350m $300m $250m $200m $150m $100m $50m $0m
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
New Plymouth
2014
2015
South Taranaki
2016
2017
2018
2019
Tourism spend within Taranaki totaled $380m in the year ending August 2020, of which 80% came from domestic tourists
2020
Stratford
Tourism spend percentage change – Year ending August 2020 0.00%
New Plymouth
South Taranaki
Stratford
Taranaki
-0.57%
-2.00% -4.00%
-3.71%
-6.00%
Visitor spend declined 0.57% in South Taranaki compared with 3.71% in Stratford and 11.47% in New Plymouth district over the 12-month period.
-8.00% -10.00% -12.00%
-9.63% -11.47%
-14.00%
Source: MBIE
33
Tourism spend by product International and domestic visitor spend – Year ending August 2020 By examining visitor spend in terms of actual dollars, it becomes apparent why Taranaki is experiencing a faster recovery from COVID-19 and is able to maintain greater resilience against the effects of the ongoing border closure. Taranaki does not rely on international tourism to the same extent as some other New Zealand regions. The strength of the region's baseline domestic tourism trade provides a solid template for a modest but sustainable tourism sector in Taranaki.
Source: MBIE
34
Tourism spend by product
International and domestic visitor spend – YE August 2020 Domestic visitor spend for Taranaki by product year to end August 2020 ($millions) $16.0 $14.0
Accommodation services
$12.0
Cultural, recreation, and gambling services
$10.0 $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $0.0
Food and beverage serving services Other passenger transport Other tourism products Retail sales - alcohol, food, and beverages Retail sales - fuel and other automotive products Retail sales - other
International visitor spend for Taranaki by product year to end August 2020 ($millions) $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0
Accommodation services Cultural, recreation, and gambling services Food and beverage serving services Other passenger transport Other tourism products Retail sales - alcohol, food, and beverages Retail sales - fuel and other automotive products Retail sales - other
Source: MBIE 35
Traffic Movements
36
Passenger movements
Monthly passenger movements through New Plymouth Airport
COVID-19 restrictions on movement saw a significant drop in passenger levels at New Plymouth airport. As Taranaki moved through the lower COVID-19 alert levels, higher rates of passenger movements ensued.
35000 30000 25000 20000
The New Plymouth Airport is forecasting that passenger movements will continue to climb from September onward, although still at lower levels than historically enjoyed. Total passenger movements are forecast to be near 206,000 people, with 2019 movement numbers at 448,016 people.
15000 10000 5000 0
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
International NZ Resident arrivals to Taranaki NZ-resident arrivals to Taranaki dropped significantly from April 2020 onward. This indicates that either residents returned in March when initially advised by the government or have chosen to remain abroad (as at July 2020).
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
Mar/18
Jun/18
Sep/18
Dec/18
Mar/19
Jun/19
Sep/19
Dec/19
Mar/20
Jun/20
Source: New Plymouth Airport, Statistics NZ
37
Heavy traffic flows – Taranaki region
The impacts of COVID-19 on the Taranaki regional economy have also extended to transportation as seen in the reduction in truck and heavy vehicle movements to/from the region during the lockdown phase, in the chart above.
Heavy traffic flows source: NZTA and Infometrics: an index of heavy traffic flows passing monitored sites within a defined location/area, averaged over 7 days and indexed to 1 February 2020.
38
Google location and mobility Taranaki
New Zealand
Changes in movement by people within Taranaki pre, during and post the key lockdown period can be viewed in the above chart with noticeably more people
staying at home and away from retail outlets and workplaces during this phase. The intensity of grocery and pharmacy movement pre-lockdown is also
noticeable. There are gaps in the data for Taranaki, but when compared to the equivalent data for the whole of New Zealand, the trend lines are clear.3 Source: Google/Infometrics
39
Meat in Taranaki
40
Meat products and processing in Taranaki Non-dairy livestock in Taranaki 800,000
Top 5 jobs in the meat sector by employment number:
700,000 600,000 500,000
1. Mixed crop and livestock farmer
400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
2009
2010
2011
2012 Beef
2013 Pigs
2014
2015
Sheep
Deer
Meat and meat product manufacturing/processing is Taranaki's second largest export (behind dairy), and accounts for 17% of regional GDP. Taranaki is home to some key red meat and poultry processing
Total jobs in the Taranaki meat sector in 2019 (including poultry) 3,862
2016
2017
2018
2019
plants. The food production and processing industries have been less affected than other sectors by COVID-19, and we consider the value that this important industry and its value chain bring to the region.5
2. Meat process worker
3. Labourer
4. Beef cattle farmer Sheep in Taranaki in 2019 0.44m
5. Mixed crop and livestock farmer Source: NZ.Stat, Infometrics
41
Monthly Livestock Kills Within New Zealand and in Taranaki meat processing facilities operated as essential businesses during COVID-19 lockdown levels, although they made significant adjustments to ensure safety and protection of product and person. These are listed below as well as some of the challenges and changes they experienced:
• • • • •
Labour within meat processing plants - e.g. reduced/altered due to social distancing. Reduction in production capacity at plants – especially as a result of the above under lockdown 4. Decreased demand for export – although retail demand for product within New Zealand increased. Increased market access complexity – given international nature of the supply chain and considerations. Longer lead times and some logistical challenges e.g. product transportation.
Monthly livestock kills in Taranaki 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0
42
Livestock continued The experiences of the meat processing industry in New Zealand/Taranaki compare favourably to those events which occurred in the United States, where the meat industry experienced a dramatic fall in production capacity in April and May 2020 due to COVID-19 impacts. • Beginning in April 2020, outbreaks of COVID-19 at meatpacking plants led to significant disruptions which created issues of oversupply and low prices for livestock producers in the US. • Plants became idled or limited in operations - daily capacity at U.S. cattle and hog facilities declined as much as 45% (Chart 1, left panel).
• Reduced capacity at meatpacking plants led to notable reductions in cattle and hog slaughter compared with previous years - by mid-May, meat production was 40% below 2019 levels (Chart 1, right panel). • These disruptions, which temporarily reduced meat production, have led to higher prices for consumers in the US purchasing meat at grocery outlets.
Their loss has been our gain, with an increase of meat exports from New Zealand to the US, although this may well be a temporary spike.5
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Looking ahead Taranaki appears to be settling into a ‘new normal’, as COVID-19 continues to shift the landscape of human health and economies worldwide. New Zealand is fairing better than most, certainly on the human health front. Our outbreaks have been largely contained, and our citizens are enjoying a lot more freedom and peace of mind than those elsewhere in the world. However, we are not immune. Jobseeker numbers in Taranaki topped 5,000 in August, a 33.5% increase on August 2019. Our unemployment rate rose from 3.7% in March to 4.3% by June. Economists are suggesting that the worst is likely still to come. Our Taranaki economy remains resilient, and this is largely due to our strong food and fibre sector, which is our biggest GDP earner and to date largely unaffected by COVID-19. Our heavy reliance on dairy and red meat for GDP is a potential vulnerability; as a developed nation, New Zealand’s reliance on the primary food sector is unusual but as we have been reminded recently, it’s a safe option. Identifying what markets have done well during a time of crisis is important. Although COVID-19 has shut many doors, others have opened, it’s just a matter of finding them. The world still needs to eat, and New Zealand’s food exports mean that we still have a large connection to the outside world. Revenue from these exports is putting food on the table for many families in Taranaki. Our region, with its strong dairy and red meat sectors, is well placed to take advantage of increases in global demand, as well as high-value sectors such as Mānuka honey and specialty foods. Our citizens have answered the call to ‘Go Local’, and we are holding on to our share of domestic tourism. The hard-hit retail sector is regenerating income, and the spectre of boarded-up streets that loomed during lockdown seems unlikely now. Taranaki remains a great place to live, work, play, create, invest and do business. There is plenty to be grateful for.
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Photo credit: Rob Tucker
Notes 1. COVID-19 Income Relief Payment (CIRP) - People who lose their job between 1 March 2020 and 30 October 2020 can apply for CIRP from 8 June until 13 November 2020 and receive payments for up to 12 weeks. The numbers reported are of those eligible, aged 16 years and older. 2. Retail data reflects spend by EFTPOS and credit cards in Taranaki retail outlets. Retail outlets reflect the defined categories displayed in these charts. The analysis, commissioned by Venture Taranaki, excludes cash and non-retail outlets. 3. Google location and mobility data: Location tracking data showing where people are travelling to or from, is based on Google Services Data showing the percentage change from “normal� (prior to COVID19) based on the median value from 3 Jan 2020 to 6 Feb 2020. Data is averaged over seven days to smooth trends. Data sourced from Google. With latest data for 11 Sep 2020. 4. Hospitality businesses include accommodation, cafes and restaurants, takeaway food services, catering services, pubs, taverns, bars and clubs (hospitality). 5. Meat and meat products: Official employment data sources are typically divided by either industry or occupation but by themselves neither is satisfactory for defining the Meat and meat products sector. We have consequently used a combination of industries and occupations to define the sector. These include; sheep farming, beef cattle farming, beef cattle feedlots, sheep-beef cattle farming, grainsheep and grain-beef farming, poultry farming, deer farming, pig farming, meat processing, poultry processing, cured meat and smallgoods manufacturing. Occupations include; beef cattle farmer, deer farmer, goat farmer, mixed livestock farmer, pig farmer, poultry farmer, sheep farmer, livestock farmer, mixed crop and livestock farmer.
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Taranaki’s Regional Development Agency 25 Dawson Street New Plymouth 4310 New Zealand T: +64 6 759 5150 E: info@venture.org.nz www.taranaki.info