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ELECTORAL COMMISSION
UNPACKING THE SEAT ALLOCATION AFTER SA'S 2024 ELECTIONS
The 2024 elections marked a significant evolution in South Africa's democratic process. The inclusion of independent candidates represented a step towards greater inclusivity and representation, aligning with global trends towards more direct forms of democratic engagement.
With the elections come and gone, the dynamics of seat allocation come into sharp focus, playing a crucial role in shaping the political landscape. The system, designed to ensure proportional representation, aims to reflect the diverse voices of the electorate in both national and provincial legislatures.
Proportional Representation: The Heart of the System
South Africa's electoral system, based on proportional representation (PR), traditionally allocated seats in the National Assembly and provincial legislatures based on the percentage of votes each party received. This system aimed to ensure a fair reflection of the electorate's will, providing even smaller parties with a chance at representation. In 2024, the system was adapted to include independent candidates, adding a fresh layer of complexity and opportunity.
Members of the National Assembly and the nine Provincial Legislatures were elected based on a party-list, compensatory PR system. Political parties were represented in proportion to their electoral support, and, through the Electoral Amendment Act, introduced the participation of independent candidates within the current system.
To give effect to this, the 400 seats in the National Assembly have been split into two portions. One portion of 200 seats designated each province as a region, with each region allocated a number of seats depending on its population size. The electoral system for each region is still proportional representation, which means a party or independent candidate gets a seat based on the voter support in that election. And a further 200 compensatory seats are allocated to political parties to bring back general proportionality of the seat allocation at the National Assembly.
It is for this reason that voters received three ballots – instead of the usual two ballots received in the past. They received a ballot for the provincial legislature and two ballots for National Assembly. This introduced a third ballot to accommodate independent candidates contesting a seat in the region for one of the 200 regional to National Assembly seats.
National Assembly Seat Allocation
The National Assembly seats are awarded by first allocating seats for the regional representatives. Then calculating the national quota which determines the overall support for the political party to allocate the 200 national compensatory seats of the National Assembly. In final allocation you then subtract seats won at the region from each party’s national allocation to generate a remainder for compensatory proportional seat allocation. This is described in Schedule 1A of the Electoral Act. The method remains largely the same as the method used since 1994, with an adaptation to facilitate participation of independent candidates.
First, a quota is calculated to determine the number of votes required to win a seat. The quota is determined by dividing all the valid votes cast, by the number of seats available, then adding one to the result and disregarding fractions. This is calculated for each region, since each region will have a different number of seats available for contestation. The total number of valid votes cast in favour of a political party and independent candidate is then divided by the quota for each region.
Seats are allocated to each political party and independents using the quota.
Not all the seats are allocated initially. The highest remainder method is used to allocate seats not allocated by awarding seats according to the sequence of highest surplus of votes until all seats have been allocated.
The 200 regional seats, allocated to the nine regions or provinces, were also determined for each region based on the number of registered voters in the region, with the result that more populated provinces have more regional seats than other provinces.
The Electoral Commission determined a provisional allocation of regional seats for each province to both political parties and independent candidates. Any unallocated seats were also allocated using the largest remainder method.
As it turned out, no seats were allocated to independent candidates as none received votes that met the required quota.
The 200 compensatory seats for the national ballot with the list of political parties was calculated as follows:
All the valid votes cast for a political party, on both the regional ballots across the nine provinces and the votes cast on the national compensatory ballot for that party, are added.
This was divided by all 400 seats in the National Assembly plus one, minus seats allocated to independent candidates. The sum gave the quota required.
The total number of votes received by parties across both the regional and national compensatory ballot were divided by the quota, to yield the number of seats allocated to a party. At this stage, the allocation remains provisional. Because the votes cast for parties in this calculation includes the votes cast in the region, and therefore the seats allocated to them in relation to the proportion of votes cast for them is accounted for here, the seats allocated to that party are subtracted.
Thus, the final allocation of seats is concluded by subtracting the regional seats given to a party in the first allocation to ensure overall proportionality.
This process is similar to seat allocation to all municipalities with wards. The electoral system is a mixed system of proportional representation and Constituency based system (for ward elections).
Provincial Legislature Seat Allocation
For Provincial Legislature seats, provinces remained a single-tier multi-member constituency and the simply proportional system applied.
Political party candidates off party lists competed on the same provincial ballot as independent candidates vying for a seat in a provincial legislature. The seats are allocated by determining a quota and apply to total valid votes for the parties and independents. Those who meet the quota are allocated the number of seats determined. If there are seats left over a second allocation is process based on ranking remainders by highest value until all seats are allocated.
View the details of the seat calculation process at: www.elections.org.za/content/ Elections/2024-National-andprovincial-elections/NPE-Seatcalculation-process/
Implications of Seat Allocation
The proportional representation system had several significant implications:
• Coalition Governments: The likelihood of coalition governments increased as no single party often wins an outright majority. This necessitates alliances and collaborations, fostering a more cooperative political environment.
• I nclusivity and Diversity: The system ensures that minority parties and marginalised groups
have a voice in the legislative process, promoting inclusivity and diversity.
• Accountability: By reflecting the electorate's will more accurately, the PR system enhances accountability, with parties needing to maintain broad appeal to secure votes.
Despite the difficulties encountered, the 2024 elections represent a credible record of the political choices of the voter in the country.
Accounts of observer experiences bear testimony to this, as does the Election Satisfaction Survey conducted by the Human Sciences Research Council. In this survey, over 90% of sampled voters during this election were generally satisfied with the voting procedures. The voters also expressed unequivocal confidence in the Electoral Commission.
In his closing remarks at the results announcement of the 2024 elections on 2 June, Electoral Commission Chairperson Mosotho Moepya remarked: “These elections have tested the strength of our institutions, the integrity of our systems, and the resolve of our citizens. These elections were undoubtedly the most highly contested. As a nation, we have emerged triumphant, having conducted these elections with the utmost transparency, fairness, and adherence to the highest standards of democratic practice.”
