Texas Land Markets

Market

Texas Land Markets

Second Quarter 2024

REPORT BY CHARLES E. GILLILAND, PH.D.Research Economist, Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University

Sales volume in Texas land markets continues to recede with the number of sales in the four quarters ending in June 2024 at 3,171 falling 65 percent from the 2021 record of 9,055. The 2024 volume even fell 1.4 percent below the first quarter total. Still, at $4,737, the second quarter price did rise 4.48 percent from 2023 second quarter prices and 36.5 percent higher than the 2021 second-quarter price. Reflecting the drop in the number of sales, total acres changing hands declined to 223,433 acres, a 34.94 percent decline from 2023 second quarter results with total dollar volume falling 32.03 percent short of 2023 second quarter totals, settling at $1.1 billion well shy of the $4 billion record registered in the first quarter of 2021.

The continued increase in statewide price occurred despite price declines in two Texas regional markets. West Texas saw prices drop 6.21 percent while Gulf Coast-Brazos Bottom prices slid 2.44 percent. Given these market realities, land values may have actually declined. Markets have begun to adapt to the new high-interest rate environment with good properties continuing to sell while lesser tracts find no buyers. Despite the headwinds overall prices still appear to be rising despite weakened conditions.

• The Preliminary Total Acres Declined to 223,433

• Preliminary Number of Sales Dropped to 3,171

• Overall Volume Dropped 1.4%

• Second Quarter Price Increased 4.48%

Panhandle and South Plains

Second quarter prices bounced back to a 9.98 percent increase to $1,797 per acre. A total of 39,156 acres changed hands down 44.42 percent from a year ago. A total of 282 sales marked a 32.54 percent drop from the 2023 annualized volume. Total dollar volume dropped 38.77 percent to $70.4 million.

Far West Texas

Price increased to $593 per acre a 20.77 percent increase. The region reported only 13 sales for the fourquarter period, down 15.97 percent. Typical size was 7,878 acres.

West Texas

West Texas continued to see market participants pull back as activity fell another 24.63 percent to 412 sales despite prices falling 6.21 percent to $2,279 per acre. Acreage transferred at 65,502 acres declined 22.16 percent. Total dollar volume slipped another 26.99 percent to $142.4 million.

Northeast Texas

Prices in this region shot up 10.25 percent to $8,473 per acre. However, at only 910 sales, volume declined by 31.22 percent. Total acres fell 37.68 percent to 27,437 acres. In addition, total dollar volume declined 31.30 percent to $232.5 million.

Gulf Coast–Brazos Bottom

Prices in this region fell to $9,401 per acre a 2.44 percent drop. Volume also slipped 22.48 percent to 438 sales while total dollar volume sank 28.86 percent to $151.6 million. Total acreage slid 27.08 percent to 16,121 acres.

South Texas

South of San Antonio prices strengthened again, up 6.03 percent to $6,122 per acre. Sales volume plunged 35.15 percent to 273 sales dropping total dollar volume down 46.45 percent to $115.9 million. Total acreage plunged 49.45 percent to 18,934 acres.

Austin-Waco-Hill Country

Prices recovered from a lackluster first quarter, climbing 6.01 percent to $7,496 per acre as buyers continued to shun formerly active urban areas owing to changed investment expectations following interest rate hikes. The number of sales totaled of 843 sales. Total dollar volume declined 18.71 percent to $298.1 million. Total acres fell 23.32 percent to 39,770 acres.

The Future

Markets still appear to be weak as uncertainty abounds with a presidential election and continuing battles with inflation Potential sellers recall the golden sellers’ markets of 2021-2022 and expect higher prices for their offerings. Meanwhile, many wouldbe buyers, faced with prices substantially higher than they were a few years ago, have adopted a wait-and-see attitude in the face of the uncertainty. These conditions point to a market with likelihood of some weakening in prices in the months ahead.

Source Texas Real Estate Research Center