Envision 4

A biAnnuAl neA publicAtion issue four: mAy/june 2013

E X P LO R I N G H U M A N I T Y ’S E N V I R O N M E N T RISING COSTS OF CLIMATE CATASTROPHES SINGAPORE’S CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY TACKLING HAZE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA EFFECTS OF RISING TEMPERATURES IN ASIA BEHIND THE CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS LAUNCH OF WORLD’S FIRST TROPICAL CLIMATE CENTRE WEANING THE US OFF FOSSIL FUELS EASY GUIDE TO ENERGY EFFICIENT LIGHTING CUTTING EMISSIONS TO BOOST COMPETITIVENESS INSIDE THE GREEN CAMPUS TOP ASIAN ENERGY EFFICIENCY MARKETS ECOSYSTEM IMPACTS ARE RISKY BUSINESS LOW-CARBON TECHNOLOGY CARBON EMISSIONS VISUALISED

450ppm and beyond What climate change holds for our future

INSIDE the new energy conservAtion Act – and – best ee mArkets explored

Globally, glaciers and ice sheets are melting at an astounding rate, a phenomenon largely attributed to climate change. In the medium to long term this will have an enormous impact on coastal cities, island nations and water supplies for growing urban populations in many developing countries. The recent documentary Chasing Ice, by photographer James Balog, showcased the shocking retreat of glaciers in Greenland, Iceland, Nepal, Alaska and the United States’ Rocky Mountains. Balog founded the Extreme Ice Survey (EIS) in 2007 to produce a permanent record of the planet’s changing ecosystems.

Merging art and science, it creatively highlights the often unseen effects of global warming. To watch the trailer for Chasing Ice, visit extremeicesurvey.org or use your smartphone to scan the QR code below.

Background image: part of the Dawes Glacier collapses at Tracy Arm-Fords Terror Wilderness, Alaska, USA

note from the editorial team I

t is hard to imagine a thornier issue than climate change that threatens the future of humanity. An international problem that respects no boundaries, it’s exceedingly complex in terms of the natural and manmade systems that influence it and those it affects.

If we are to address this challenge effectively, we must collectively strike a balance between meeting the demands of today and safeguarding the future – a psychological state that doesn’t come naturally to a species hallmarked by short-termism.

Without fail, however, each passing year the climate stakes get higher as global carbon emissions grow at some two to three parts per million (ppm). The metrics teeter near a milestone of 400ppm – perilously close to levels that could permanently and drastically alter the Earth’s climate.

Speaking at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Lord Nicholas Stern, author of the 2006 Stern Review on Climate Change, said: “Looking back, I underestimated the risks. The planet and the atmosphere seem to be absorbing less carbon than we expected and emissions are rising pretty strongly. Some of the effects are coming through more quickly than we thought they would.”

Record natural disasters and atypical weather have affected many corners of the globe, from fires in Russia, prolific droughts in Africa and record heat in the US to extensive flooding in Thailand and Pakistan.

The extreme temperatures being recorded in Australia have necessitated the addition of new colours to weather maps, while epic hurricanes have flattened whole regions of rich and poor nations alike. The devastation wrought in the mighty metropolis of New York was a wake-up call to cities all over the world.

While it’s worth acknowledging humanity as a key contributor to the problem, it also holds the key to its solution. Binding international agreements on climate action would be useful but are hard to come by – some even feel idealistic. We discuss the challenges with Ambassador Burhan Gafoor, Singapore’s Chief Negotiator on Climate Change.

In the face of slow negotiations at United Nations climate summits, and with greenhouse legislation waylaid in many countries, calls for industry to take the lead are gaining traction. Rocky Mountain Institute’s Dr Amory Lovins puts forward a lucid business case for energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies that give firms a strong financial incentive to drive action on climate change.

Of course, there is also the cost of inaction. As research by the Economics of Ecology and Biodiversity (TEEB) for Business points out, pesky environmental and climate externalities are already starting to bite corporate supply chains and balance sheets. The business imperative for change is growing.

As we see both in international trends from Frost & Sullivan and company case studies such as Holcim, energy efficiency and other environmental considerations are taking hold in the corporate world. But will the pace of change reflect the urgency with which climate change must be tackled – and will enough be done to avoid a four or even fivedegree Celsius rise in temperature?

In this issue of ENVISION, we seek perspectives and insights from across academia, government and business on how best to tackle the climate menace. While the severity of the problem has been increasing for decades, the warnings are becoming harder to ignore. Lord Stern says the situation is “potentially so dangerous that we have to act strongly... these risks for many people are existential.” How we respond to this challenge will define our lives, the future of our cities and the fates of our nations.

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Publisher National Environment Agency (NEA) 40 Scotts Road Environment Building #19-00 Singapore 228231 CEO Andrew Tan Editorial committee chair Ong Eng Kian Editorial committee members Ram Bhaskar, Dulcie Chan, Cheong Hock Lai, Chua Yew Peng, Fong Peng Keong, Suresh Kulaveerasingham, Wong Chin Ling Editorial lead Chris Tobias Special thanks to: Prof Mely Anthony, Pete Bronski, Penny Burrt, Dr Neil Sebastian D’Souza, Dr Jackson Ewing, Prof Steve Elliot, Ambassador Burhan Gafoor, Kelvin Goh, Jaime Ho, Allan Khoo, Mads Lauritzen, Cheryl Lim, Jerome Lombardi, Dr Amory Lovins, Melissa Low, Jan Lui, Aidan Lynam, Kholid Mawardi, Elizabeth McRae, Prof George Ofori, Raja Pillai, Priti Saldanha, Valya Serivalsatit, Suchitra Sriram, Shiva Susarla, Dennis Tan, UK Met Office, Nahim Bin Zahur NEA contributors and assistance Ng Pei Chen, Karen Chow, Patricia Ee, Suresh Kulaveerasingham, Leonard Lee, Adrian Tan, Janice Tan, Roland Tan, Winston Tan, Michelle Tay

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National Climate Change Secretariat (NCCS) contributors and assistance Janice Quah Comments and opinions made by parties interviewed by ENVISION magazine do not necessarily reflect the views or policy of the National Environment Agency (NEA) nor the Singapore Government. While every effort is made to verify all information, the NEA bears no responsibility for the accuracy of content from external parties, unintentional errors or omissions All materials remain copyright of the NEA and no reproduction is permitted without written authorisation.

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ENVISION magazine is printed on environmentally friendly paper stock.

For feedback, comments and contributions, please email chris_tobias@nea.gov.sg ISSN 2251-3922

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Visit us at switchsg.sg

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4/26/12

GLOBAL BRIEFING 05 Life in the 450ppm world Rising greenhouse gas concentrations threaten our very existence 10 The rising cost of climate change Disastrous weather around the world

1:10 PM

CLIMATE CHANGE 12 Challenges, opportunities, partnerships Inside Singapore’s national strategy 16 Clearing the air Regional approaches to tackle transboundary haze 20 The impact of rising temperatures How an increase of 4°C could affect life in Southeast Asia 22 Behind the negotiations Ambassador Burhan Gafoor assesses the progress of global climate change talks

28 World’s first tropical climate and weather research centre launches The centre will utilise sophisticated software to study and monitor climatic conditions in the tropics ENERGY EFFICIENCY 30 Energy efficiency evolves The dynamic factors causing power costs to skyrocket and the ripe business opportunities to cut costs 34 Bold business solutions An informed approach to weaning the US off fossil fuels 40 A bright idea Adopting eco technology can be a light bulb moment for business 42 Cut emissions to boost competitiveness The implications of the new Energy Conservation Act explained

CONTENTS

45 58

56 42 05

44 Training for the future Reflections on the Singapore Certified Energy Manager programme

57 The future of forecasting The workings of a real-time weather monitoring system

INDUSTRY INNOVATION 45 Plugging into know-how How a new industry training facility is helping to build capacity

ENGAGEMENT 58 Challenging decisions Approaches to better policy and business to effectively mitigate climate change

50 Business on the brink Dr Dorothy Maxwell on the financial risk to business of ignoring ecosystem impacts

BEHAVIOURAL INSIGHTS 62 Conflict of interest Are landlords and tenants locked in an energy saving stand-off?

TECHABILITY 54 Twelve carbon curbing technologies The most promising inventions being used to mitigate climate change

64 Devil’s in the detail How energy efficiency data can benefit consumers

PARTING SHOT 70 Into thin air?

Will the Clean Development Mechanism remain relevant as emissions trading falters?

EDUCATION FOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES 66 Required learning Equipping environmental professionals through multidisciplinary study

OPPORTUNITIES 72 Career change?

Find your next move in environmental management

56 A city’s emissions made visible An innovative video highlights New York’s hidden atmospheric changes

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t e l b a t r u o y n o N O I S I V N E d a e R Out Now! NEA launched ENVISION magazine because it believes informed discussions are crucial for achieving a cleaner, healthier and more beautiful world.

It’s now easier than ever to read compelling articles on environmental management by accessing its tablet-friendly edition.

Simply visit www. nea.gov.sg or scan the QR codes found below for the latest government and industry news and perspectives, or see http://tinyurl. com/b85h8xs to download a PDF version.

Previous Issues ISSUE ONE Focus on waste management and resource recovery. Half of the world’s population now lives in cities and, with many facing looming challenges, closing waste, energy and water loops could be a key defining challenge for municipal authorities and city planners.

ISSUE TWO Focus on Rio+20, which highlights many aspects of sustainable development.

Topics include integrated environmental master planning in Tianjin EcoCity, environmental policy and research into waste management in Singapore.

ISSUE THREE We delve into the critical connection between environmental factors and their influence on urban public health and wellbeing. We also look closer at tactics for fighting dengue fever and international perspectives on air quality.

GLOBAL BRIEFING

life in the 450ppm World The higher concentrations of greenhouse gases go, the more uncertain civilisation’s future becomes. Find out what a 450ppm world and beyond means for humanity

O

ur wOrld pOtentIally faces devastating impacts if humanity fails in its collective goal of limiting global temperature increases to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels.

Consistent with news of extreme weather and climate events in 2012, evidence from the IPCC now suggests a strong link between climate change and increased climate extremes.

Why has extreme weather failed to heat up the climate debate? Is this a sign of what’s to come in a 450ppm world?

Since the beginning of human civilisation up until about 200 years ago, our atmosphere contained about 275 parts per million of carbon dioxide. Parts per million (ppm) is simply a way of measuring the concentration of different gases and means the ratio of the number of carbon dioxide molecules to all of the molecules in the atmosphere. The figure of 275ppm

Contributor Melissa Low, energy studies institute, national university of singapore is a useful amount – without any CO2 or other greenhouse gases to trap heat in the atmosphere our planet would be too cold for humans to inhabit.

Today, the level is nearly 395ppm and this number rises by about 2ppm every year.

Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 (1,774ppb) in 2005 exceed by far the natural range over the past 650,000 years.

Global increases in CO2 concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel use, with land use change providing another significant but smaller contribution.

At first in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the scenario routinely used was 550ppm CO2 – mostly because it was double the

pre-Industrial Revolution concentrations and hence easy to model. Today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) looks to a 450ppm scenario, suggesting it to be a global energy pathway compatible with a near 50 per cent chance of limiting the long-term increase in average global temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

Bill McKibben, founder of the 350 Movement, argues that these numbers are at best only guesses of what is achievable politically and that no one knows how much change such scenarios would produce.

He suggests a further problem with higher scenarios, namely that they imply to policy makers and the general public that we still have an atmosphere in which to put more carbon and time in which to gradually adjust policies governing emissions.

The truth is we don’t – not with feedback loops such as thawing permafrost emitting methane that has been locked up in ice Issue 4

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GLOBAL BRIEFING

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3.0

2.5

ppm per year

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US, December 2012

recent mOnthly mean cO2 at mauna lOa

atmOstpherIc cO2 at mauna lOa ObservatOry

400

400

395

380

Parts per million

nO matter what the figure, climate extremes are cause for worry for more than one reason. In addition to the dangers associated with extremes, fossil fuel-based electricity production can be adversely affected by air and water temperatures.

This simply means that thermal and nuclear plants will see reduced efficiencies in hotter temperatures, while the necessary cooling processes for these plant types will be constrained by regulations on river levels and maximum allowable temperature for return water. Lower efficiency of plants can also mean higher energy intensities and more greenhouse gas pollution.

The supply of renewable energy sources is also vulnerable to an increase in extreme weather events. Hydropower will be adversely affected by increased variability of rainfall and increased evaporation. Change in wind patterns or insolation – exposure to the sun’s rays – will affect the variability and increase the intermittency of wind and solar-based electricity generation. The energy sector will experience both increased demand and diminished supply in extreme weather and climate events. A 450ppm world will therefore have to utilise more resilient energy systems, more fuel diversity and more interconnection between countries

annual mean GrOwth rate Of cO2 at mauna lOa

Parts per million

for millions of years. The 350 Movement continues to be a testament to how oblivious many have become to the atmospheric concentration of harmful greenhouse gases.

For one thing, we are way past 350ppm.

Secondly, having a number to aim for forces us to realise that the UN process is simply continuing its post-Copenhagen direction – seeking to iron out a new 2015 Agreement that would supersede the Kyoto Protocol – and that more must be done to put us on the road towards staying below 2°C. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that the window of opportunity in which to prevent potential irreversible global warming is closing. To avoid locking humanity in an irreversible path to climate change and its potentially devastating effects, there is a need to reform the world economy on a low-carbon footing. Yet, in another report by the IEA, the emissions trajectory in a high-gas scenario is expected to stabilise atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at 650ppm, resulting in an average global temperature rise of over 3.5°C. The availability of unconventional gas sources such as shale gas and coal-bed methane means this scenario is highly likely to play out. A 650ppm world would have a higher frequency and severity of extreme weather and climate events.

390

385

380

2008

360

340

320

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

“the energy sector Will experience both increased demand and diminished supply in extreme Weather and climate events” to increase energy security. Perhaps the silver lining of this scenario is that rapid deployment of energy-efficient technologies could delay the lock-in of carbon emissions allowable in the IEA’s 450ppm scenario until 2022, leaving the door to a 2°C world open for an extra five years. In addition to avoiding the severe effects of climate change,

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

such investments are economically justified in their own right. If the signs are clear, all that’s left to do is to create political change to steer towards 350ppm. This is easier said than done, however.

A focus on the systemic barriers to climate solutions and changing political dynamics is a starting point towards a low-carbon trajectory until and beyond 2030.

In the absence of a global agreement on climate change mitigation, emission-intensive infrastructure continues to be built, locking in greenhouse gases for decades to come.

As countries are preparing once again to come together in Warsaw, Poland, at the end of this year, all eyes are looking to see what the future climate regime can deliver; whether it will generate the urgency and political resolve to prevent runaway climate change. One thing’s for sure, though – the longer we remain in the danger zone, above 350ppm, the greater the chance of seeing disastrous and irreversible climate impacts.

examples Of Impact assOcIated wIth GlObal averaGe temperature chanGe (Impact will vary by extent of adaptation, rate of temperature change and socio-economic pathway)

Global average annual temperature change relative to 1980–1999 (°C) 0

1

2

3

4

5°C

Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes WATER

Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress

Up to 30% of species at increasing risk of extinction Increased coral bleaching

Most corals bleached

ECOSYSTEMS

Significant extinctions around the globe Widespread coral mortality

Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon source as: ~15% ~40% of ecosystems affected Increasing species range shifts and wildfire risk Ecosystem changes due to weakening of the meridional overturning circulation

Complex, localised negative impacts on small holders, subsistence farmers and fishers

FOOD

Tendencies for cereal productivity to decrease in low latitudes

Productivity of all cereals decreases in low latitudes

Tendencies for some cereal productivity to increase at mid to high latitudes

Cereal productivity to decrease in some regions

Increased damage from floods and storms About 30% of global coastal wetlands lost

COASTS

Millions more people could experience coastal flooding each year

Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoea, and cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods and droughts HEALTH Changed distribution of some disease vectors Substantial burden on health workers 0

1

2

3

4

5°C

Source: Figure SPM.7. Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. NCCS

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GLOBAL BRIEFING

sun

2.

As the Earth’s surface warms, it emits infrared radiation

1.

Most solar radiation is absorbed by the Earth’s surface

China USA European Union (27) Brazil Indonesia Russia India Japan Canada Mexico Iran South Korea Australia Ukraine Venezuela Nigeria Turkey South Africa Saudi Arabia Malaysia Total

GHG emissions (MtCO2e) 7,195 6,784 5,047 2,841 2,036 1,998 1,865 1,349 806 671 568 568 561 494 453 451 425 423 375 368

Source: Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 9.0 (Washington DC: World Resources Institute, 2012)

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% of world total 16.7 15.7 11.7 6.6 4.7 4.6 4.3 3.1 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 81.7

ea rth ’s s ur fac e

Country

at mo sp he re

estImated GreenhOuse Gas (GhG) emIssIOns by cOuntry (2005)

Solar radiation

Some CO2 occurs naturally in the atmosphere

3.

Some of the infrared radiation is absorbed by greenhouse gas molecules such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)

Greenhouse gases are produced

Carbon dioxide (CO2), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)

ISSUE 3

Source: NCCS

Methane (CH4)

09

GLOBAL BRIEFING

climate change: rising hu RAINSTORM Mumbai, India, 2005 Fatalities: more than 1,000 people

Water supplies, sewage and road, rail and air travel were heavily disrupted by a massive rainstorm that struck in July. The city’s location on the coast of the Arabian Sea makes it particularly susceptible to such weather.

Mumbai’s rapid expansion has given rise to sprawling slums, some in areas that were once marshland. As a result, many of the dead were among the city’s poorest residents.7 FIRE, HEATWAVE AND DROUGHT Russia, 2010 Fatalities: tens of thousands of people

FLOODING

HEATWAVE

UK, 2000

Southern Europe, 2003 Fatalities: more than 70,000 people

In autumn 2000, England and Wales experienced the heaviest rainfall recorded since 1766. The deluge, which also affected Northern Ireland and, to a lesser extent, Scotland, caused widespread flooding from rivers. The impact was compounded by fierce winds that cut road and rail links and damaged buildings, trees and power lines. In all, 10,000 homes and businesses were flooded at 700 locations.1 RISING SEA LEVELS South Pacific, 2003 to present

For more than 1,000 years, the Tuluun community has lived on the Carteret Islands, a ring of six atolls just 170cm above sea level at the highest point and 50 miles off the coast of Papua New Guinea. They are repeatedly inundated by spring tides, making subsistence agriculture impossible.

Since 2007, the islands’ 26,000-strong population has dwindled to 3,000 as many residents have been evacuated to Papua New Guinea. It is thought to be the first incident in which an entire people has had to leave its home due to climate change. Climatologists predict major migration in coming years as millions flee coastal areas.2

Europe sweltered through the hottest summer recorded for 500 years, with withering crops, drying rivers and fires. The human toll of the heatwave was massive – it is thought to have been one of the deadliest climate related disasters in human history. More than 14,800 people died during the first three weeks of August, according to the French National Institute of Health. In Italy, 9,700 heat fatalities were recorded in August alone as temperatures in some places averaged 9ºC higher than in the preceding year.3

When western Russia experienced its hottest July in well over a century, the impact was devastating and widespread.8 Harvests failed on a massive scale, with 13 million hectares of crops destroyed; domestic wheat prices soared and grain shortages look set to last well into 2014.9 A study by the US-based National Academy of Sciences, a distinguished non-profit body, reported that the heatwave was unlikely to have happened without climate change.10

HURRICANE KATRINA USA, 2005 Fatalities: 1,833 people

The floods that devastated the central Gulf Coast region caused roughly US$113 billion in damage and extensive displacement from urban areas. New Orleans, which suffered widespread inundation following a levee breach, was hit particularly hard. It is estimated that total financial losses as a result of Katrina exceeded US$100 billion, with over $34 billion in insured losses.4, 5, 6

References metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/autumn2000.html 2 Climate change displacement has begun – but hardly anyone has noticed, George Monbiot, The Guardian, 7/5/09 3 Setting the record straight: more than 52,000 Europeans died from heat in summer 2003; Janet Larsen, Earth Policy Institute, 28 July 2006. 4 ncdc.noaa.gov/special-reports/katrina.html 5 Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), IPCC, 2012 6 Global Climate Change Index (CRI) November, 2013 7 woods.stanford.edu/news-events/news/preparing-climate-change-induced-weather-disasters 8 gmao.gsfc. nasa.gov/researchhighlights/2010_Heat_Wave 9 Russia looks west amid grain shortages, Financial Times, Emiko Terazono,14/2/13 10 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1205276109 1

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man and financial costs HURRICANE SANDY Caribbean and USA, 2012 Fatalities: at least 149 people

FLOODING Pakistan, 2010 Fatalities: 2,000

In 2010, Pakistan experienced its worst flooding since 1929 in basins surrounding the Indus River.14 The disaster left almost 2,000 people dead and directly affected a further 20 million, mainly through the loss of livelihoods, housing and infrastructure. Overall flood recovery and reconstruction costs were estimated at about US$8.74 billion to US$10.85 billion.12 Pakistan has continued to suffer bouts of extreme rainfall, most recently last September, when flooding killed at least 400 people.11,14 13

This ferocious storm left devastation in its wake when it struck last autumn. Starting in the Caribbean on 19 October, it tore through Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas and the eastern coast of the US. Costs in America were forecast at US$20 billion in property damage and US$10-30 billion for lost business, making it one of the country’s most financially devastating natural disasters.

Almost 8.5 million people were left without electricity and airlines cancelled more than 15,000 international flights. Caribbean nations were also heavily affected. Although Haiti did not take a direct hit from the storm, torrential rain destroyed crops and inflamed its already severe humanitarian crisis. The UN tallied US$39.9m in additional funding needed from 2012-13.16

East Africa, 2012 Fatalities: 50,000 to 100,000 people

FLOODING Thailand, 2011 Fatalities: more than 500 people

The catastrophic chain of events that followed Tropical Storm Nock-ten caused one of the costliest natural disasters in history. Three months of heavy monsoon rain left swathes of the country flooded, including a fifth of the capital city, Bangkok. Economic losses amounted to US$43 billion.6 LANDSLIDES Brazil, 2011 Fatalities: more than 1,000 people

Floods and landslides caused more than 1,000 deaths; torrential rain triggered mudslides that destroyed mountainside properties and left thousands more people homeless. The disaster caused almost US$5 billion in direct losses.15

DROUGHT

HEATWAVE AND DROUGHT USA, 2012

The US suffered a sweltering six months in the first half of last year, with 28 states reporting record temperatures. Research led by NASA’s climate scientist, James Hansen, found that abnormal weather episodes were so rare from 1951 to 1980 that the drought could only be attributed to the increasing accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The study, published in the peer-reviewed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, concluded that if carbon emissions continue to rise unchecked, extreme weather events will become common within 50 years.17

Across Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya, 12 million people are in dire need of food, clean water and basic sanitation as the region faces the worst food crisis of the 21st century. The combination of higher temperatures and less predictable rain is alarming for food production. While direct climate change linkage is still tenuous, the UK government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir John Beddington, said: “Worldwide, events like this have a higher probability of occurring as a result of climate change.”18,19 HEATWAVE Australia, 2013

Australians rang in the New Year with a recordbreaking heatwave that lasted over two weeks in many places, with temperatures regularly rising above 48°C, with the highest recorded figure, 49.6°C, observed at Moomba, South Australia. The extreme conditions resulted from the delayed onset of the Australian monsoon and slow-moving weather systems over the continent. The only comparable event in the country’s recent history was a two-week country-wide hot spell during the summers of 1972 and 1973.20

10 East Africa’s drought: The avoidable disaster, The Guardian, 18 January, 2012 11 Pakistan Floods: The Deluge of Disaster – Facts & Figures, Singapore Red Cross 12 http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards 13 bbc. co.uk/news/world-asia-19763569 14 Pakistan Floods 2010: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment, World Bank, 2010 http://siteresources.worldbank.org/PAKISTANEXTN/Resources 15 El Salvador landslide, travel.state. gov, 2002 16 livescience.com/24380-hurricane-sandy-status-data.html 17 http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/07/30/1205276109.full.pdf.html 18 A Dangerous Delay, Save the Children and Oxfam, 18 January 2012 19 Briefing on the Horn of Africa Drought: Climate change and future impacts on food security, Oxfam, August 2011 20 guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2013/jan/21/what-is-causing-australia-heatwave

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challenges, opportunities and partnerships

Singapore’s National Climate Change Secretariat (NCCS) was set up as a dedicated agency under the Prime Minister’s Office in July 2010 to plan and coordinate Singapore’s domestic and international policies and plans on climate change.

NCCS explains the country’s approach to dealing with climate change

s

Ince the early days of our independence, Singapore has placed a high priority on balancing economic growth while protecting our environment. Today, Singapore is enjoying the benefits of our past policies and ongoing efforts. We are well regarded internationally for our high-quality living environment. We are seen as a role model for other countries in sustainable development in areas such as integrated urban planning, public housing, transport infrastructure, waste, water and pollution management.

Singapore has received various accolades for our environmental achievements.

For instance, it ranked third overall in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Global City Competitiveness Index in 2012 and was the highest-placed Asian city. The report highlighted Singapore’s focus on environmental sustainability as a key aspect of liveability.

National Climate Change Strategy Our approach to climate change is an extension of our history of sustainable development. The National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS-2012), which was released

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in June 2012, outlines Singapore’s plans to address climate change through a wholeof-nation approach. The document’s title, Climate Change and Singapore: Challenges.

Opportunities. Partnerships. reflects the key elements of Singapore’s climate strategy.

They include reducing emissions across sectors, building capacity to adapt to the impact of climate change, forging partnerships to take action on it and harnessing green growth opportunities.

Challenges As a small, tropical island city-state, Singapore faces significant challenges in climate change mitigation and adaptation. We are vulnerable to rising sea levels and extreme weather events. Our geographical location and small land mass also pose constraints in switching to alternative energy sources such as wind, hydro, geothermal or nuclear power.

On the other hand, our early initiatives to protect the environment have limited our scope to further reduce emissions growth.

For example, natural gas, the cleanest form of fossil fuel, was introduced into our fuel mix for electricity generation in 2000 and constitutes about 80 per cent of the fuel mix

today. Singapore has also actively managed private transport demand through capping vehicle growth and pricing vehicle usage so as to manage congestion and reduce vehicle emissions. With the country’s continued dependence on fuel imports for powering our economy, our total emissions are therefore projected to grow in the near term.

Reducing emissions Nevertheless, Singapore has embarked on policies and measures to reduce emissions by 7 to 11 per cent below 2020 Business as Usual (BAU) levels, as announced in 2009.

The reduction will be further increased to 16 per cent below BAU, contingent on a legally binding global agreement in which all countries implement their commitments in good faith. This will require a major effort, given Singapore’s early mitigation actions and difficulties to switch to alternative clean energy. A key thrust of our mitigation efforts is to improve the energy efficiency across all sectors of our economy.

There are policies in place to reduce emissions in the power generation, industry, building, transport and household sectors.

In the power generation sector, Singapore is

CLIMATE CHANGE

continuing with its fuel-mix switch from fuel oil to natural gas for electricity generation.

The government is building a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal to import LNG from global gas markets. The terminal will enhance our energy security and position Singapore as a hub for LNG related businesses.

To encourage businesses to adopt energy efficient practices, various incentives, such as Grant for Energy Efficient Technologies (GREET), which is jointly administered

by NEA and EDB, are available to co-fund companies’ energy efficiency investments.

The Energy Conservation Act, which came into effect in April 2013, mandates consumers of large amounts of energy to implement energy management practices.

Companies that consume 54 TJ or more energy annually must appoint an energy manager, prepare energy consumption reports and develop energy-efficiency improvement plans for senior management, and also submit these to NEA. The ECA targets the largest the largest industrial energy consumers, which account for almost half of Singapore’s energy consumption.

In the building sector, the Building and Construction Authority (BCA)’s flagship Green Mark scheme promotes the adoption of green building design and technologies, and sets minimum building standards based on energy and water efficiency, waste management and other green features. New buildings are required to meet minimum Green Mark standards.

BCA has also ramped up the drive to green existing buildings, with Singapore being among the first in the world to mandate environmental sustainability standards for existing buildings.

The government has also stepped up efforts to promote public transport, which is a more energy-efficient mode of travel.

Under the Land Transport Masterplan, Singapore aims to increase the public transport modal share to 70 per cent during peak morning hours by 2020. To make public transport more attractive, the rail network will be doubled by 2030 and bus services and connectivity improved. The recently launched Carbon Emissions based Vehicle (CEV) Scheme aims to encourage the use of low-emission vehicles by offering rebates of between S$5,000 and S$20,000 to buyers of new cars with emissions of less than or equal to 160g carbon emissions per kilometre (CO2/km).

Singapore will continue to push ahead to harness energy efficiency and develop innovative low-carbon technology. The

“a key thrust of our mitigation efforts is to improve energy efficiency across all sectors” Long-Term Emissions and Mitigation Working Group (LWG), under the Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change (IMCCC), will study how Singapore can stabilise long-term emissions. The LWG will highlight options for emissions reductions and identify capabilities, infrastructure and policies needed for long-term mitigation measures.

Adapting to the impacts of climate change Singapore has also taken actions to enhance our resilience against climate change.

Protecting our coastline, addressing increased flood risks and assessing the implications of warmer temperatures on public health are some of the measures taken. We have also raised the minimum reclamation level for new reclamation projects by an additional metre, beyond the previous 1.25-metre figure used since the end of 2011, to take account of a possible rise in sea levels.

Studies are also ongoing to better understand the potential impact of climate

sInGapOre’s prOjected 2020 bau (busIness as usual) emIssIOns 3.9% 7.6%

14.5% 60.3%

13.8%

77.2MT industry household

building

transport

others (waste, water, other electricity use)

The BAU level refers to a projection without policy intervention.

Singapore’s BAU emissions in 2020 is projected to be 77.2MT. Source: NCCS

change on Singapore. We are building up expertise and capabilities on climate science, for instance, with the set-up of the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS) and by working in partnership with research institutions locally and abroad. We will continue to prepare for the future as global knowledge of climate science evolves with new information, such as that arising from the Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), scheduled for release in 2014.

Harnessing green growth opportunities While climate change poses a challenge, it also provides opportunities for development as a hub for green growth. Singapore has placed an emphasis on developing the cleantech industry, spanning areas such as clean energy and energy efficiency, green buildings, smart grids, carbon management, and waste and water management.

By 2015, the clean energy industry is expected to contribute S$1.7 billion to Singapore’s gross domestic product and employ about 7,000 people.

Technology plays a key role in driving more efficient use of energy over the long term. Singapore has continued to invest heavily in research, innovation and enterprise, with gross expenditure on research and development (R&D) amounting to S$7.4 billion in 2011, a 14.8 per cent increase from S$6.5 billion in 2010.

In 2011, the National Research Foundation (NRF) launched the Energy National Innovation Challenge programme, allocating S$300 million to develop energy solutions for deployment within 20 years, to improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions. The Energy Innovation Programme Office (EIPO), an inter-agency group overseeing strategies to develop Singapore’s energy sector, received a new funding tranche of S$195 million to promote energy R&D in the five-year period to 2015 to accelerate the growth of the clean energy industry and to diversify into new areas such as smart grids, green buildings and carbon capture and utilisation (CCU).

We have also sought to augment our research capabilities in Singapore. The National University of Singapore (NUS) and the Nanyang Technological University (NTU) have set up research institutes with multidisciplinary teams to develop solutions to wide-ranging energy and sustainability issues. For example, the Energy Research Institute@NTU (ERI@N) undertakes industry-driven research in clean energy, focusing on wind and marine renewables, green buildings, e-mobility, energy storage Issue 4

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and fuel cells, while NUS’ Environmental Research Institute (NERI) conducts research on issues related to climate change, food security and sustainable energy.

The NRF has also invested significant funding to establish the Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise (CREATE) in partnership with renowned universities to work on urban mobility, environmental sensing and modelling, and low-carbon research, among other research areas. Some of the research centres established under CREATE include the Cambridge Centre for Carbon Reduction in Chemical Technology, which addresses carbon emissions in the petrochemical industry; the Singapore Peking University Research Centre for a Sustainable LowCarbon Future, which focuses on carbon capture, conversion and utilisation as well as low-carbon footprint technologies; and programmes at the University of California at Berkeley Education Alliance for Research in Singapore to reduce the carbon footprint of buildings, improve the efficiency of photovoltaic (PV) devices and harvest

solar energy for conversion into electricity.

Singapore is also well placed to serve as a living laboratory in which to pilot and validate new technologies in real-world settings before commercialisation and large-scale deployment.

Various solar test-bedding initiatives are underway to improve its efficiency and lower costs before larger-scale adoption.

For instance, the Housing and Development Board (HDB) is installing solar technology in 30 precincts over a five-year period. The CleanTech Park, the first eco-business park in the region, aims to position Singapore as a global test bed and preferred site for early adoption of green technology prototypes for tropical urban environments.

The innovations being developed and test bedded in Singapore will not only help us to address our own energy and climate change challenges. They can also provide solutions to help other cities anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to climate change while generating high-value jobs for Singaporeans.

Many companies and research institutes already use Singapore as a regional hub for research and innovation and also a test-bed

for urban solutions. For instance, one of the world’s largest integrated solar energy companies, Norway’s Renewable Energy Corporation (REC), invested S$2.5 billion to set up an integrated solar manufacturing facility, the largest cleantech investment in Singapore. Wind technology leader Gamesa also has its R&D centre here, adding to the growing wind industry cluster that includes Vestas and Siemens. Their presence in Singapore, in turn, creates more opportunities for research, business and jobs.

Forging partnerships for action The NCCS-2012 explains what the government is doing to tackle climate change, as well as steps individuals, households and businesses must take as part of a collective national effort to address the challenges posed by global warming.

Everyone must play a role in achieving more emission reductions over time by making the necessary adjustments and adopting energy saving practices. Our many partnerships across the People, Public and Private (3P) sectors on climate issues

clImate chanGe and sInGapOre Mitigation measures

Households Tighten Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) for household air-conditioners and refrigerators (2013) Extend MEPS to lighting (2014) and other appliances

Power generation Switch fuel mix away from fuel oil to natural gas for power generation Encourage more solar testbedding and research

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Waste/water Incinerate sludge rather than dispose in landfills Reduce plastics incineration

Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources

are integral to helping us to better prepare for the challenges ahead, as well as making the most of green growth opportunities as they arise. The government supports ground-up initiatives and collaborates with 3P stakeholders on outreach programmes to reach a wider audience. For instance, the National Climate Change Secretariat (NCCS) organised a series of roving exhibitions with its partners from September 2012 to January 2013 to bring climate change information to the community.

The government also works with business associations such as the Singapore Business Federation (SBF) and the Sustainable Energy Association of Singapore (SEAS) to encourage the adoption of energy-efficient practices among businesses.

At the same time, Singapore collaborates with international partners through various multilateral, regional and bilateral platforms to address climate change. In particular, we actively participate in multilateral negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to develop a global agreement

Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean speaking at the COP18 conference in Doha

on climate change. Singapore also works in partnership with other countries and international organisations to exchange knowledge and technical expertise. For instance, it was invited to join the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (C40) as an observer city in 2012 in recognition of its achievements as a global city in economic

growth and environmental sustainability.

Our involvement in the C40, a network of 58 cities committed to implementing sustainable climate-related actions, allows us to share our sustainable development experiences and to learn from other major cities’ best practices.

We have been collaborating with other countries such as Japan, South Korea, Thailand, France, Germany and Norway, as well as international organisations such as the World Bank and various UN agencies on training programmes in environmentrelated issues, including sustainable urban development, water management, energy efficiency and emissions reduction.

Conclusion Singapore has overcome challenges in the past to become an environmentally friendly global city despite our land and resource constraints. Looking forward, it is important for our stakeholders to similarly work together to address the challenge of climate change. Together, we can achieve the vision for Singapore to become a climate-resilient global city that is poised for green growth.

Capability development measure: Energy Conservation Act for large energy users to develop energy efficiency improvement plans and take other measures (2013)

Buildings Require Green Mark Certification for all new buildings Require Green Mark Certification for existing buildings when retrofitted (2013)

Submit energy consumption and energy related building data (2013)

Transport Achieve a 70:30 modal split between public and private transport

Industry Extend the Grant for Energy Efficient Technologies (GREET) scheme (2012)

Implement carbon emissions based vehicle (CEV) scheme to encourage purchase of cars with lower carbon emissions (2013)

Develop and support energy efficiency financing pilot schemes (2012) Encourage creation of co-generation plants in energy-intensive sectors

Graphics by NCCS

Audit building cooling systems every three years in new and existing buildings that have undergone retrofitting (2013)

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clearing the air Transboundary haze has wide-ranging impacts on health, biodiversity and Southeast Asian economies. How can policymakers tackle this persistent scourge?

I

n auGust 2012, NEA announced it would implement measures to improve national air-quality standards by 2020.

The changes are primarily concerned with domestic sources of pollution, such as transportation and industry, but will also address international ones.

Transboundary haze, which includes atmospheric dust, smoke and other dry particles, will be monitored and measured more widely, and NEA will explore more effective ways of alerting the populace to changes in haze levels.

Such developments make it apt to reevaluate the issue, revisiting its primary causes and considering how affected countries might influence its trajectory.

Discussions of haze necessitate a focus on weather conditions, which are changing

016

Contributors J Jackson Ewing and Elizabeth McRae, s. rajaratnam school of international studies (rsis) centre for non-traditional security studies at nanyang technological university in Southeast Asia as elsewhere. Regional El NiĂąo dynamics are strongly related to the propagation and distribution of haze, and uncertainties abound regarding how climate change is affecting El NiĂąo cycles and might amplify or otherwise affect haze challenges.

Both climate and El NiĂąo are increasingly relevant factors to consider, but the crux of any effort to combat transboundary haze remains on the ground in Indonesia.

A recurrent threat Transboundary haze, a sporadic problem for decades, became a key concern in Southeast Asia following a major episode in 199798 that was recognised as one of the most damaging environmental catastrophes in recorded history.

That event and others since have had a significant impact on public health, biodiversity, tourism and economies in the region. But what factors are behind these annual incidents and their severity?

Forest fires in Indonesia, notably those originating from Sumatra and Kalimantan, are the primary cause of haze in the region.

The occurrences of the late 1990s resulted from a convergence of political, economic and environmental conditions conducive to land clearance.

More specifically, evidence suggests that the palm oil industry took advantage of the favourable climate to clear land through burning, contributing to the loss of nearly five million hectares of forest and blanketing the region with haze. Since then, it has regularly affected the region – from 2001-03, in 2006 and from 2009 onwards.

In Indonesia, forest-clearing fires typically occur during the annual dry season from June to September.

They were traditionally set by small-scale landholders to rejuvenate soil after harvest and to make land available for agriculture.

In recent decades, however, the potential economic and financial benefits from timber and the production of commodities such as palm oil mean bigger logging companies and plantation owners now account for much of the deforestation.

Areas particularly affected by large concerns include the lowlands of Sumatra and Kalimantan, which experienced a combined annual forest loss of almost 3.5 per cent during the 1990s.

From 1990 to 2005, over 40 per cent of their forest cover was lost. After a shortlived reduction in forest clearing during the economically lean years of 1999 and 2000, rates shot back up, partly in response to price increases for palm oil and other landbased commodities.

It is difficult, at present, to determine exact ratios of small versus large forest clearance, as many small cultivators change locations frequently and are not picked up in official government statistics. Moreover, the lines between small and large actors can be blurred by the fact that leases held by small landholders are often contracted to corporate enterprises to grow products such as oil-palm trees; however, it is clear that significant, powerful interests continue to play the dominant role in haze-producing clearing activities in relation to local slashand-burn agricultural strategies.

Furthermore, significant levels of burning look set to continue, as that method tends to be chosen over other land-clearing practices by small landholders and larger entities alike. This preference reflects cultural norms as well as a lack of viable and affordable alternatives. Burning is quick and efficient, requires minimal labour, helps control pests and diseases, assists in plant matter decomposition and aids soil health.

Emergent climatic changes could exacerbate these already problematic conditions.

Critical interactions The location, scale and impact of haze depend on several key factors, including the

extent of the fires, the strength and direction of prevailing winds, and the incidence and amount of rain.

An understanding of current environmental conditions, and how these may shift in the coming decades, is therefore an essential component of developing appropriate and effective strategies to address the problem.

The correlation between the occurrence and severity of haze, and the El Niño phenomenon, is well documented. El Niño contributes to dry conditions and decreased rainfall, each of which allows fires to start and spread more easily, influencing the scale and impact of the annual fires. The relevance of El Niño cycles is further demonstrated by the conjunction of such cycles in 1997-98 and 2006 with major haze events.

“on a more general level, climate change is likely to have significant impacts on both the incidence and duration of forest fires and haze” There are indications that climate change may influence the frequency and severity of the El Niño effect. At this stage, however, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is unable to express a confident understanding of the relationship between climate change and El Niño, due in part to the difficulty of measuring possible linkages. Despite the absence of scientific consensus on the relationship between the two, this environmental phenomenon appears to have undergone certain shifts over the past decades. In particular, it seems to be occurring more frequently.

On a more general level, climate change is likely to have significant impacts on both the incidence and duration of forest fires and haze. Its effects include warmer temperatures and variations in rainfall patterns and, like El Niño, these conditions are likely to allow fires to start and spread more easily.

Additionally, climate change can be affected by forest fires. When occurring on a sufficient scale, forest burning exhibits a vicious cycle of partially climate-induced fires emitting climate-change causing

greenhouse gases. In Indonesia, the burning of forested and peatland areas releases significant levels of carbon dioxide and destroys carbon sinks.

Peatland, which is composed of dense, partly decomposed plant matter, is often drained during land clearing for agricultural expansion, providing conditions particularly conducive to burning. Peatland fires are very difficult to suppress, often smouldering underground months after the fires have seemingly been extinguished. They also release far more carbon dioxide than the burning of more conventional forestland.

Such practices are responsible for a negligible proportion of most countries’ emissions, but the size of Indonesian forests and peatlands means that sustained forest harvesting and clearing has a significant impact on the composition of the atmosphere worldwide.

This adds impetus to political efforts inside and outside Indonesia to change the country’s forest-clearing practices.

The politics of haze The transboundary nature of haze has long brought it to the attention of regional forums. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has collaborated on this issue since 1990, developing various voluntary efforts to prevent, mitigate and monitor deforestation activities in the region.

It was the disastrous impact of the 199798 haze, however, that placed transboundary haze firmly on ASEAN’s agenda. The Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, adopted in 2002 and implemented in 2003, was a notable step away from ASEAN’s non-interventionist bent, outlining the ambitious task of drastically reducing forest fires through a legally binding agreement.

In years since, haze has remained on ASEAN’s agenda and is listed as one its 10 ‘priority areas’ for ASEAN environmental cooperation in the blueprint for the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC) 200915. But, despite strong rhetoric and signs of commitment, effective action through the ASEAN platform has remained largely absent.

Several key reasons for ASEAN’s ineffectiveness stand out. First, and of central importance, is that Indonesia has yet to ratify the Agreement. With the fires in Indonesia the primary cause of haze, Indonesia’s position remains an obvious barrier to meaningful action.

Second, the Agreement is weakened by mechanisms that support the nonintervention norm. Assistance, for example, can only be given by mutual consent and is Issue 4

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subject to the direction and control of the recipient state. While this is important for keeping the consensus-oriented approach of ASEAN at the fore, it creates difficulties in finding pragmatic solutions to the haze problem. Indonesia, for example, has in the past refused assistance, presumably for sovereignty or reputational reasons.

Third, despite the legally binding nature of the agreement, there is little scope for accountability or enforceability. This is amplified by the absence of mechanisms for sanctions or dispute settlements and monitoring mechanisms. In short, ASEAN’s ability to combat difficulties is limited.

Regional difficulties are exacerbated

by Indonesia’s slowness to address forest burning and haze through national policy development or regional engagement.

Moreover, it has been argued that even if Indonesia were to ratify the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, it might make little practical difference on the ground given multiple challenges faced in implementation including: l Economic

and financial drivers Indonesia has long experienced problems with corruption and the financial incentives to continue clearing forests are very real.

As noted earlier, forest burning is increasingly conducted to clear land for the production of lucrative commodities, notably timber, palm oil and rubber. These products contribute significantly to gross domestic product (GDP) in Indonesia and demand for them is growing. The financial benefits are often accorded greater priority than the national and regional impacts of forest clearance on populations and economies.

l Geographical

difficulties Even if the desire to develop strict deforestation policies existed, Indonesia’s geography would constrain its capacity for effective policy implementation and enforcement. The sheer size of forested areas, the sprawling, archipelagic nature of the country and the difficulty of monitoring forestry activities from the ground are barriers that will not dissipate.

l Legal

shortcomings Insufficient legal frameworks affect Indonesia’s capacity for effective action to minimise forest fires. Creating policies will have little impact if they cannot be enforced.

Such dynamics mean that reducing the prevalence and volumes of transboundary haze continues to be logistically problematic for externally affected countries such as

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“understanding the role of el niño and climate change is significant for the development of policies to address the haze problem” Singapore and Malaysia. Some pathways could, nevertheless, be explored or scaled up.

Innovative approaches are needed both to prepare for future haze events and to address the processes that drive forest fires.

Approaches should aim to increase understanding of how the trajectory of the haze is likely to change over the coming years, as well as how regional actors can engage with Indonesia more effectively.

Understanding the role of El Niño and climate change is significant for the development of policies to address the haze problem.

Singapore, as a leader in regional climate change research, is well positioned to play a central role here. In particular, targeted studies about the relevance of climate change for El Niño periods, and haze trends and events, would be welcome contributions.

Regional cooperation Haze represents a clear case of transboundary pollution inflicted on

Indonesia’s neighbours through little or no fault of their own. As such, there are international legal and normative foundations for framing and adjudicating haze as an infringement of sovereignty and rights.

The practical applications of such frameworks are not readily apparent, however, and appear on the surface to be anathema to Southeast Asia’s diplomatic culture.

From the earlier discussion, it is clear that the consensus-oriented approach favoured

by ASEAN has been at least partially responsible for the slow regional progress on tackling haze. The region has consistently avoided establishing liability regimes or formal punitive instruments directed at polluting countries, opting instead for prevention strategies that have often been found wanting. Nevertheless, the negative ramifications of fires and haze for Indonesia and the wider region indicate the need to doggedly pursue solutions to the problem.

There are cooperative precedents to this end, with Singapore and Indonesia creating collaborative partnerships in the wake of meetings in 2006, and Malaysia and Indonesia signing a Memorandum of Understanding in 2008. These agreements have helped facilitate the use of funds and resources from neighbouring countries to address the root causes of haze in high-risk areas such as Riau and Jambi.

Specifically, these efforts have led to training and information sharing on zero-burning techniques for farmers, firefighting improvements, better management of peatlands and more robust air-quality monitoring. Given the wide-ranging impacts of haze and the likelihood of natural conditions enabling more forest burning, these efforts should be evaluated with the possibility of scaling up their more successful components.

Indonesia also remains engaged in ASEAN processes despite its failure to ratify the Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution.

Ministers from Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei and Thailand praised Indonesia at an ASEAN forum in May 2012 for reducing haze hotspots and for its greenhouse gas emissions targets. While these forums have failed to overcome haze problems, they provide a platform for regional diplomatic pressure and the fermentation of innovative cooperative strategies to combat haze.

Forest preservation Haze may also be mitigated by participation in forest preservation programmes such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Plus (REDD+).

REDD+ initiatives have been piloted and are ongoing in Jambi and other haze-producing regions of Indonesia. One of its key goals is to create incentive programmes that make forests more valuable standing than if they were to be cleared for agricultural activities.

Many questions remain regarding such possibilities in Indonesia, but it is clear that, in principle, funding related to carbon sinks could make the potential profits to be gained from forest clearance less attractive.

Significant REDD+ funding has already been allocated to Indonesia through the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and from countries such as Norway and Australia.

Singapore could form partnerships with other countries affected by the haze to encourage Indonesia and other actors in the REDD+ programmes to target high-risk areas for protection.

Moving forwards While climate change may be an increasingly relevant contributor to transboundary haze, reducing forest burning practices in Indonesia is likely to be key to tackling the problem.

Indonesia must play a central role in driving this – a task it unfortunately appears unable or unwilling to prioritise.

usInG new technOlOGIes fOr haZe mItIGatIOn Once the sole purview of the scientific community, mapping technologies have now become accessible to the masses. Users

“While climate change may be an increasingly relevant contributor to transboundary haze, reducing forest burning practices in indonesia is likely to be key to tackling the problem” Overcoming the formidable financial incentives for forest burning are crucial if changes in Indonesia’s position on haze are to be effected. In this respect, there are signs that the balance may be slowly shifting.

Rising concerns over the cost associated with fire-related haze has led to Indonesia’s apparently growing willingness to reduce the number of forest fires.

The public health, economic and diplomatic impacts of haze are increasingly recognised, as are loss of biodiversity, implications for traditional livelihoods and the destruction of natural and cultural capital.

Initiatives such as REDD+ have also made efforts to stop deforestation more attractive.

Indonesian action is essential and can be bolstered, albeit modestly, by regional efforts.

To tackle the fires effectively, Indonesia must develop realistic and measurable goals while accepting active support from neighbouring ASEAN member states – and such support must be forthcoming.

The sentiment is not novel and is encoded in the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, which calls for “concerted national efforts and intensified national, regional and international cooperation” in response to haze challenges. These principles remain as relevant today as they did in the wake of ASEAN’s early movements on haze, and member states should continue to explore collaborative possibilities to mitigate forest clearing in Indonesia.

They should do so, however, with sober assessments of their own limitations, all while diligently monitoring, predicting and preparing for the fog.

of Google Earth, for example, are able to view faraway locations from their laptops or smartphones, to preview the streets of cities from across the world to monitoring how natural landscapes are changing over time.

The NEA is exploiting these emerging technologies and developing a user-friendly web-based application to enhance hotspot monitoring. On target to be ready by mid2013, this new application will utilise data overlays and mapping from multiple sources, which will help boost haze mitigation efforts in the region.

The application will combine information such as geo-referenced hotspot data, highresolution satellite imagery and concession maps, which are increasingly available in the public domain, to more accurately identify the location and parties responsible for illegal land-clearing activities that contribute to haze pollution. The application will then use Google Earth to visualise this information and allow the analysis of the causes, historical patterns and origins of transboundary haze pollution to be carried out.

This screenshot depicts the location of multiple hotspots on 4 September 2012 across Southeast Asia, and was obtained by overlaying MODIS Hotspot Data within the Google Earth visualisation platform. Several days after this data overlay was carried out, Singapore experienced a deterioration of its PSI due to haze which was reported in the mass media.

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the impact of a global temperature Managing ecological public health risks

MEKONG DELTA 1 l The Mekong Delta is a low-lying region in southern Vietnam and Cambodia. About half of the Mekong Delta is less than two metres above sea level. l Sea level rise is a threat to the economy and ecology of the region. The Mekong Delta alone generates over half of Vietnam’s total rice production. l Under a 4°C global average temperature increase, the global average sea level could rise by up to 80cm by the end of the century. l This would translate to a local, relative sea level rise of 65cm in the Mekong Delta region that could submerge low-lying land areas. l It could also increase the threat of saline intrusion and storm surge damage to rice crops.

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SINGAPORE 2 l A global average temperature rise of 4°C could potentially have severe impacts on Singapore. l Fresh water supplies are required to support the high population density of Singapore but are limited by the country’s small amount of land. Water supplies may be affected in the future as parts of Southeast Asia could see drought events occurring more than twice as frequently. l Any increase in temperature as a result of climate change will be in addition to the higher temperatures that result from the ‘urban heat island’ effect. l Projected to increase, the risk of forest fires across Indonesia puts Singapore at a greater risk of pollution related health problems, such as upper respiratory tract illness, asthma and rhinitis.

FISHING IN INDONESIA 3 l In Indonesia, fishing and aquaculture play a vital role in the country’s economy, influencing the livelihoods of much of the Indonesian population. In 2010, inland fisheries, marine fisheries and aquaculture provided more than five million people with direct employment, with more than half depending on marine capture fisheries for their income. l Fisheries also play an important role in national food security, since their products are generally consumed by poor households across the country and fish is the main source of animal protein in the typical Indonesian diet. l A 4ºC rise in global average temperature is expected to have negative implications for fishing and aquaculture across Indonesia. l Research into the effects of a global temperature rise on marine capture fisheries around the world has found that Indonesia may be among the countries that will experience the largest decline in catch potential.

FORESTRY IN BORNEO 4 l Over half of the island of Borneo (which is shared by Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei) is covered by tropical rainforest. This forest has an important role to play within the carbon cycle and the mitigation of climate change; however, it is also vulnerable to changes in climate through fluctuations in temperature and rainfall patterns. l The climatic changes associated with an increase in global average temperature of 4°C are projected to alter conditions so that the forest-fire risk across the region could increase. l It is the complex interaction between human ignition AGRICULTURE 7 Yields of cereals crops such as rice and maize could decrease by up to 5 per cent across Southeast Asia; however, this fall in yield may be a bestcase scenario. If crop growth does not respond positively to increased carbon dioxide as expected, reduction in yield may be as much as 30 per cent or higher. Any reduction in rice yield could have significant impacts on large rice producers such as Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam. Other impacts of a 4°C temperature rise on cereal crops include an increased incidences of drought and extreme temperatures, affecting grain production, and020 the potential for saline intrusion on vulnerable coastal agricultural land as a result of sea level rise.

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WATER AVAILABILITY 8 There is a high degree of uncertainty about how water availability may change with a global average temperature rise of 4°C. Global average amounts of rainfall are likely to increase but this will not be true for every area. In Southeast Asia, some countries may see increases in water availability while other areas experience decreases. Climate change may also affect the Southeast Asian monsoon and the seasonal pattern of rainfall. While there is evidence that the incidence of drought will increase in Southeast Asia, this does not mean that the average annual amount of rainfall will decrease.

SEA LEVEL RISE 9 Highly populated and low-lying delta areas along the Southeast Asian coast are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise. Across Bangkok, without adaptation, a relative sea-level rise of 65cm by 2100 would flood large parts of the city, which has an average height of just 2m above mean sea level.

TROPICAL CYCLONES 10 Tropical cyclones could be more intense. Global population increases, particularly in coastal areas, and sea-level rise mean greater cyclone and hurricanerelated losses, disruptions to infrastructure and loss of life.

rise of 4°c (7°f) in southeast asia +3°C

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TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE PHILIPPINES 6 l The Philippines is the country most exposed to tropical cyclones across Southeast Asia. Severe storms, known locally as bagyo, often lead to considerable loss of life.

Flooding, landslides and high winds can all contribute to the death toll during a storm. l Populations situated in vulnerable locations, for example on low-lying coastal areas or on slopes prone to landslides, are particularly at risk. l Lives may also be lost at sea when fishing boats are unable to avoid the storm. Widespread damage to infrastructure and crops as a result of tropical storms also has an impact on the economy of the Philippines. l In 1991, Tropical Storm Thelma (Bagyong Uring) made landfall in the Visayan Islands of the Philippines, killing more than 5,000 people and leaving 20,000 homeless.

Deaths resulted from extensive flash flooding, the failure of a dam and numerous landslides. Such large events highlight the threat to the population of the Philippines from such a destructive natural disaster. l As a result of a 4°C rise in global average temperature, tropical cyclones could be more intense. The potential rise in sea-level across Southeast Asia could further increase the country’s vulnerability to storm surges and other coastal flooding.

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RICE-GROWING IN THAILAND 5 l Thailand is the world’s sixth largest producer of rice and the world’s largest exporter, selling about 10million tonnes in 2008 and contributing about a third of the total world rice trade. Rice is also the staple food of the Thai population, regardless of their income. l Any deterioration of rice production systems could prejudice food security and the economy in Thailand and the continent as a whole. l During growth, rice plants are very sensitive to extremes of temperature. Crops can become sterile if temperatures exceed 35°C around flowering time. l Low temperatures during other stages of the plants’ growth can also have a significant negative effect on yield. l With a global temperature rise of 4°C, the risk to rice crops from low temperatures may decrease, but this is likely to be offset by reductions in yield due to the higher temperatures. l With the hottest days of the year as much as 6°C warmer over parts of the country, and without adaptation measures, the possibility of rice sterility is significantly greater. Rice crops may also be affected by an increased risk of drought. l The potential of a relative sea-level rise of 65cm across parts of the country brings an increased risk of salt water intrusion on vulnerable coastal agricultural land, also threatening rice yields.

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+3°C MARINE ECOSYSTEMS 11

Marine ecosystems could be fundamentally altered by ocean acidification, which could have a significant impact on fisheries. This could cause substantial loss of revenue and jobs. The loss of coral reef habitats due to acidification may affect many commercial fish species and could have implications for coastal communities relying on subsistence fishing of reef species. In addition, the rise in ocean temperatures also has the potential to have a negative impact on both coral reef habitats and fish populations.

EXTREME TEMPERATURES 12 Hottest days of the year could be as much as 6ºC warmer over inland areas of South East Asia, such as areas of Thailand, Laos and Borneo.

DROUGHT 13 Drought events could occur almost twice as frequently over Southeast Asia.

HEALTH The impact of a global average temperature rise of 4°C on health could include more incidences of heat-related illness, including heat stress, strokes and cardiovascular disorders. City populations such as those in Jakarta, Manila and Bangkok may be particularly at risk, especially where air quality is already poor. Occurrences of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever may change in geographical spread.

EL NIñO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION Southeast Asia is annually affected by climate extremes, particularly floods, droughts and tropical cyclones, while large areas of the region are influenced by monsoons and are prone to flooding. There is a very strong relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which includes both El Niño and La Niña events, and seasonal ISSUE 3 021 weather patterns.

these impacts make no assumptions about adaptive capacity. for further information about this map go to: www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/guide/effects/

of fires and changes in the atmospheric conditions suitable for the fires to spread that increases the risk of forest fires. In addition, changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which influences the amount of rainfall in the region, could have significant positive or negative impacts on the risk of forest fires in Borneo.

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behind the negotiations With ambassador burhan gafoor International climate change negotiations have been going on for decades. Many believe reaching a consensus and agreement has been the most challenging process in human history. To better understand its progress and future potential, ENVISION magazine seeks out the experience of Singapore’s Chief Climate Change Negotiator, Ambassador Burhan Gafoor

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he UN has been negotiating climate change issues for more than two decades. What have been the tangible outcomes of this process?

Let me first say that the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), established in 1992, is important because it provides the basic foundation for international cooperation on climate change. Although some people feel that progress has been slow, I would say the UNFCCC has made good progress over the years.

Firstly, it adopted the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, which required developed countries to take action to address climate change. Last December, at the UN Climate Conference in Doha, Qatar, we agreed to extend the Kyoto Protocol for another term, until 2020. In my view, the Kyoto Protocol is significant because it represents developed countries’ commitment to take the lead in addressing climate change.

Secondly, although the Copenhagen Conference in 2009 failed to produce an agreement, more than 90 countries, covering roughly 80 per cent of global emissions, submitted pledges to reduce their emissions. This is an important step forward.

In addition, all countries, both developed and developing, have also committed to becoming more transparent about their domestic actions to reduce emissions.

At the UN Climate Conference in Cancun, Mexico, in 2010, a new framework was adopted for greater monitoring, reporting and verification of domestic mitigation measures.

This new transparency framework will help the international community to catalogue what everyone is doing. It will also help us calculate how these efforts are collectively helping to address the global challenge.

Thirdly, we have established new institutions in areas such as climate finance, adaptation and capacity building to help developing countries address the climate change challenge. For example, Singapore played an active role in the design and establishment of the Green Climate Fund (GCF), which will become one of the important channels for providing climate finance to developing countries.

And, last but not least, at the Durban Conference in 2011, a historic decision was taken to launch negotiations for a new global agreement that will come into effect in 2020.

When this new agreement is concluded, it will provide the framework for all countries to make a contribution to addressing climate challenge. Ultimately, climate challenge is a global problem that requires a global solution. Every country has a role to play. That is why the Durban decision was a historic one, because it decided that the new agreement will be applied to all countries.

Are you optimistic that the international community can conclude a new global agreement? Do you believe this can be done by 2015, which is the deadline agreed at the Durban Climate Conference?

We have no choice but to reach an agreement. And all countries must work together to keep the deadline. I think the urgency of tackling climate change is felt across the world, in all countries, including Singapore, because we, too, are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. That is why we believe the UN process is critical, because we want a global solution that involves all countries.

Singapore is prepared to play its part as a good global citizen. But other countries have to play their part, too. In the final analysis, we are a small country. Our total emissions ISSUE 4

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of greenhouse gases are minuscule, less than 0.2 per cent of the global total. Ultimately, the big countries have to show leadership and demonstrate political will. Reaching an agreement in 2015 will be difficult, but I think it can be done if there is political will.

What role do you think binding international agreements – however difficult they may be to achieve – play versus individual initiatives on the parts of nations, industry and citizens?

I think the two approaches are not contradictory. They can be mutually reinforcing. In other words, a binding international agreement has to be built on a foundation of individual initiatives on the part of nations, industry and citizens. At the same time, a groundswell of initiatives can create momentum towards an ambitious and binding legal agreement.

As a small country, Singapore has always supported a rules-based international system. In such a system, binding agreements are the building blocks of international cooperation. In our view, a

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“my hope is that We Will see more action and more activism from the private and people sectors in the years to come” legally binding international agreement provides assurance and confidence that other countries will implement their commitments.

The assurance that all countries will act collectively is critical for dealing with a global issue like climate change.

At the same time, we have to encourage a variety of actions on the part of business and citizens. In terms of actions at the national level, government-led initiatives to address climate change can only be effective when supported by strong social norms and environmental awareness. The people,

private and public sectors, sometimes referred to as the 3P, must work together.

In any country, government actions alone cannot make the difference when dealing with such a complex issue.

In the case of Singapore, the Government has provided the policy and regulatory framework for mitigating carbon emissions and enhancing our resilience to the impact of climate change. But, ultimately, success will depend on actions by individuals, the community and businesses. The key challenge here is to change mindsets.

You referred to the 3P dialogue. Have we been able to do this successfully in Singapore?

The Government has started a process of stakeholder consultations between the private, public and people sectors. I should point out that Singapore’s National Climate Change Strategy 2012 (NCCS-2012), which outlines our approach to dealing with climate change, was prepared in collaboration with the relevant public agencies. We also sought views from a broad range of actors,

including the general public, businesses, academia, grassroots leaders and nongovernmental organisations.

For its part, the government will facilitate dialogue with stakeholders through the National Climate Change Secretariat or NCCS. For instance, following the release of the NCCS-2012 in June last year, the Government organised a conference with the National Youth Achievement Award Council to raise awareness and discuss the issue of climate change with our youth. And we will try out new ways of reaching out to different segments of the community to raise awareness. For example, NCCS launched a Climate Change SG Facebook page to convey climate change messages in a lighthearted and easy-to-understand manner.

I think the page has been well-received. It gathered more than 11,000 fan ‘likes’ within a short period of six months and established a vibrant online community that actively contributes to the climate change dialogue. I would like to see the dialogue flourish.

But I should point out that, for the 3P dialogue to be successful there must be a sense of shared ownership. It cannot be led by the Government alone. The commitment to raise awareness, change mindsets and modify behaviour must also come from the private and people sectors. And my hope is that we will see more action and more activism from the private and people sectors in the years to come.

Let me give you a concrete example. From time to time, we have a national campaign to save water. I think we should have a national campaign to encourage Singaporeans to save energy. Both water and energy are precious resources for Singapore. And we need to get into the habit of using them wisely. At the end of the day, avoiding waste and reducing consumption of energy is a net saving for households, for business and for our planet.

In what ways do you feel governments can give industry the impetus to take action?

I think governments have an important role to play in providing the right signals and support. For example, they can provide the right incentives to encourage energy efficiency improvements, green solutions or establishment of clean-technology industries.

And, indeed, the Economic Development Board is doing this in Singapore actively.

There are significant opportunities that exist in the global green business sector. It is estimated that the ‘green economy’ is worth more than US$3.6 trillion and growing. In 2011, global investments in clean energy reached US$260 billion.

In Singapore, we are serious about

promoting green growth and about seizing business opportunities for Singapore companies. The government is collaborating closely with our universities and research institutes to conduct R&D in areas such as solar energy, and smart grid and green building technologies that meet our local needs. In my view, these types of partnership are important ways in which can deal with the challenge of climate change.

Governments can help industries build

at the end of the day, avoiding Waste and reducing consumption of energy is a net saving for households, for business and for our planet” capabilities. In Singapore, the Energy Conservation Act comes into force in April 2013. It will require large energy users to develop energy efficiency improvement plans and take actions to improve their energy performance and therefore become more competitive in the global economy. This is a clear signal to industries that government is serious about conserving energy.

Globally, there is a lot of talk about renewable and alternative energies. What are we doing in Singapore in this area?

A lot of research and innovation is neing conducted in the area of renewable energy.

We are carrying out our own R&D, in solar energy, for example. But there is a limit to what we can do in the area of renewable or alternative energy. In fact, I would say that Singapore is ‘alternative-energy disadvantaged.’ For example, there is no possibility of hydro or geothermal energy in Singapore. Wind speeds are too low to make aeolian energy commercially viable.

Solar energy is the only source that has some potential but we are limited by our small size and dense urban landscape. We are encouraging solar energy companies in Singapore to work out innovative leasing arrangements, but there is an upper limit to how many solar panels you can put in a compact, urban environment. Hopefully, as technology improves and costs come down further, there will be a greater use of solar panels in our buildings.

Given the extreme weather of the past year, have we moved beyond an era of climate change mitigation and into one of adaptation? Have we reached a sort of tipping point?

I don’t think we have reached a point of no return. It is true that the challenge facing the international community is a Herculean one.

But it can be done if there is political will, especially in the bigger countries.

You may have heard of a recent report by the World Bank called Turn Down the Heat:Why a 4 Degrees Celsius Warmer World Must be Avoided. It painted a dire scenario of a warming world in which global temperatures could rise by as much as 4ºC, leading to inundation of coastal cities and increasing risks for food production. But, at the same time, it concluded that such a scenario can be avoided through urgent and concerted global action. That is why the UN negotiations on climate change have become even more important.

But the UN is not the only place in which to solve this challenge. A lot of action by local and municipal authorities around the world is taking place outside the UN framework. The C40, which unites dynamic cities around the world, is facilitating action and innovation to deal with sustainable development and climate resilience.

You referred to adaptation, which essentially means preparing for the effects of climate change. In other words, how do we make cities and countries more resilient to the effects of extreme weather and longterm climate change?

Whatever the scenario, the need for adaptation and climate resilience is a necessity. It is not a question of one or the other.

Internationally, we need an approach that puts focus on both mitigation and adaptation. But, at the national level, some countries will be more vulnerable to the effects of climate change, such as smallisland states or low-lying coastal regions. In fact, Southeast Asia as a region is low-lying and vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Naturally, for many ASEAN countries, including Singapore, adaptation is a priority.

In what ways can Singapore be a climate leader among other small nations?

I would not proclaim that Singapore is a global benchmark for other countries. The reality is that we face a unique situation as a highly urbanised small-island city-state. Our experience is not something to be replicated by everyone. Having said that, I think our experience can be useful to others because ISSUE 4

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“it is important to realise that climate change Will affect different regions and different countries in very different Ways” more than half of the global population now lives in cities and the UN has estimated that, by 2050, 80 per cent of the world’s population will be urbanised.

In Singapore, we have managed our urban environment with great care to create a good balance between development and the environment. In 2008, we set up the Centre for Liveable Cities (CLC), which looks precisely at the challenges of managing sustainable development issues in an urban environment. In 2010, we launched the World Cities Summit, held every two years, to bring together city leaders from around the world to share their experiences on urban sustainability.

The CLC and the World Cities Summit are platforms for learning and sharing experiences. And the learning is two-way because Singapore can, and must, learn from the best practices of other cities.

We are also doing what we can to share our experience of sustainable development and climate change with our fellow smallisland states. We have done so through the Singapore Cooperation Programme (SCP), which is run by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Recently, we launched a special technical assistance programme on sustainable development and climate change which is tailored to address the needs of small-island developing states.

The programme will focus on two areas in which Singapore has some expertise, namely adaptation and resilience to climate change, and sustainable cities.

What are the key areas in which Singapore needs to ramp up its own capacity on climate change. Who might we learn from internationally?

As a small, low-lying island nation, the reality is that Singapore is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In the area of adaptation, we will have to learn from the best practices of other countries to improve our resilience.

I am very happy with the positive and proactive approach taken by NEA in the area

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of building international partnerships. For example, NEA has launched a partnership with the United Kingdom through the MoU with the UK Met Office in 2011. The Met Office operates the Hadley Centre, widely recognised as one of the leading centres for climate prediction. The MoU was clearly a significant step towards us building our own climate change research capability by partnering a leading global centre.

I also understand that, as part of this move, NEA’s Meteorological Services has established a centre for climate science to spearhead research into the local and regional effects of climate change.

It is important to realise that climate change will affect different regions and different countries in very different ways.

The impact will not be uniform. That is why it is necessary to build our own capabilities

to understand and project the possible impacts on Singapore and our surrounding region. These kinds of international partnerships will augment NEA’s ongoing vulnerability studies to determine the impact of climate change on Singapore’s urban climate, water resources and coastal areas.

When we talk about climate change, the two biggest elephants in the room are the United States and China. Are they really committed to concluding a global agreement by 2015?

You are right that the two largest emitters and consumers of energy are the US and China. Together, they account for 45 per cent of global emissions. The two of them have very different profiles. The US is a mature economy that has reached a certain level of economic development. China, on the other hand, is an emerging economy with a different level of development.

At the heart of the climate debate is the conundrum: how does the global economy continue to grow while reducing the level of greenhouse gas emissions? The answer lies in sustainable development. The notion of sustainable development is accepted by countries around the world. But the challenge is to put it into practice because, in reality, countries face many urgent and serious socio-economic challenges, such as poverty eradication and economic restructuring. That is why there is often a lot of tension and divergence in the climate negotiations because different countries face different challenges in making the transition to a sustainable and lower-emissions pathway to economic development.

I would say that the large countries, like the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa recognise the need and the urgency to conclude a global agreement by 2015. Domestically, all of them have taken action to manage and reduce their emissions. Internationally, they have shown their commitment by working within the UN process to build consensus and find agreement. They have also been working at the level of the G20 to build understanding of each other’s positions. The key question is whether they have the political will to conclude an agreement in 2015. I think they do, but we need to see how the process unfolds over the next few years.

What is the biggest challenge to concluding a global agreement on climate change?

Negotiating any global agreement is not easy. It took nearly 10 years to conclude the negotiations on the UN Law of the Sea and adopt the final treaty. The Doha

Round of trade negotiations at the WTO is still ongoing, more than 10 years after they were launched. I think the climate change negotiations have actually progressed quite well, given the complexity of negotiating an agreement among 196 countries.

I think the biggest challenge for the new global agreement is to design a flexible framework that can accommodate the diversity of unique circumstances and challenges facing every country around the world. For an agreement to be truly global we need everyone on board. But to have everyone on board, we need to accommodate their most important concerns and constraints.

“We need to give each country the flexibility to decide What it can contribute to the best of its ability, based on its oWn constraints and challenges” We should avoid a one-size-fits-all approach. A complex challenge like reducing carbon emissions cannot be solved by a mathematical formula, to decide how to apportion the amount of reductions for each country. We need to give each country the flexibility to decide what it can contribute to the best of its ability, based on its own constraints and challenges. At the same time, it is important that every country makes a contribution. We cannot solve this global problem if we don’t have all hands on deck.

Can you tell us more about how you became Singapore’s Chief Negotiator?

Let me confess that I did not volunteer for this assignment. But when it came my way, I embraced it with great gusto. In my career, I have had some experience in international negotiations. For example, I was dealing with sustainable development issues in New York in the early 1990s, and more recently with trade negotiations at the WTO in Geneva and with nuclear non-proliferation issues at the IAEA in Vienna. That may explain why I ended up with this assignment.

After having done this job for more than three years, my sense is that climate negotiations are probably the most complex

and the most contentious global negotiations ever undertaken by the international community. It is also probably the most tangible and relevant negotiations because it will have a profound impact on our planet, whatever the final outcome. As a father of two young children (two boys, aged five and 10), I often wonder what kind of planet their children will inherit. Climate change is not an abstract issue; it will have a big impact on each and every one of us. To be able to participate in such a challenging process and represent Singapore in the negotiations is a great honour.

What is it that you exactly do as the Chief Negotiator? Could you elaborate a little?

There are two aspects. First, I negotiate on behalf of Singapore at meetings of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. In concrete terms, I have to explain, defend and advance Singapore’s views to the international community. This requires a lot of patient work, in terms of talking to people, persuading them to our point of view and building friendships with negotiators from other countries.

Often, there are divergences on issues on which Singapore may not have strong interests. But, as a small country, we attach importance to a functioning UN process.

Therefore, as Chief Negotiator, I also do my best, where possible, to build bridges between different sides and facilitate a compromise between differing positions.

It has been a Singapore tradition to play a constructive role in international negotiations. I try to continue that tradition.

The other aspect of the job is more domestically oriented. It is also my job to explain to the Ministries and Agencies in Singapore the main issues and trends at the international level. And I give my views to the inter-agency process in Singapore that is coordinated by NCCS. In a sense, the Chief Negotiator is the link between the domestic and international. On the one hand, I have to understand what is happening domestically so that I can explain this to an international audience.

On the other hand, I have to explain what is happening internationally to a domestic audience. I have to say that I have learned a lot while doing this job.

What is the hardest part of handling climate negotiations?

The most difficult part for me is the travelling, because the meetings are held all over the world and one is constantly on the road or flying. Fortunately for me, I sleep very well on a plane.

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ManagIng CLIMATE CHANGE ecologIcal publIc health rIsks

World’s first tropical climate and Centre for Climate Research Singapore to leverage high-resolution computer models to simulate weather and climate over Singapore and wider Southeast Asia region

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he centre fOr Climate Research Singapore (CCRS) is the first research centre in the world dedicated to the tropical climate and weather of Singapore and the wider Southeast Asia region. It was officially opened on 26 March 2013 by the Minister for the Environment and Water Resources, Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, in celebration of World Meteorological Day 2013.

The centre, which was established under the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), aims to advance scientific understanding

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and prediction of the weather and climate of Singapore. It is the first in the world to use high- resolution computer models to simulate weather and climate over Singapore and the wider Southeast Asia region. A new logo for CCRS was also announced, along with the new director, Dr Chris Gordon, who will lead a core team of research scientists.

The International Scientific Advisory Panel (ISAP), which was appointed in 2011, also convened for the first time on 20 and 21 March this year. Comprising distinguished individuals in the domains of meteorology,

climate science and earth science, it is chaired

by Professor Lim Hock from the National University of Singapore.

The concept of CCRS was first mooted in 2011 as part of the government’s plans to build capabilities in climate science. CCRS will support Singapore’s efforts in climate resilience by producing robust long-term climate projections. These underpin studies on climate impact and adaptation. CCRS will also network with both overseas and local experts to ensure that the latest scientific developments are incorporated, as well as cover a broader domain of climate-related disciplines.

Since 2011, a multi-year Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been signed with the UK Met Office, the ISAP has been appointed and the Climate Science Experts Network (CSEN) launched.

The CSEN is where Singapore based scientists meet to share technical information on climate research.

ManagIng ecologIcal publIc health rIsks

Weather research centre launches Through the hosting of lectures by visiting experts, conducting visits to the Central Forecast Office and CCRS, and contributions to the climate change exhibit at the Singapore Science Centre, CCRS also hopes to reach out to the next generation of climate scientists and meteorologists. the dIrectOr-General of MSS, Ms Wong Chin Ling, said, “The Centre’s launch marks a major milestone in the long history of MSS. There is a common misconception that climate change and environmental issues are a problem for the distant future.

“The reality is that preparedness must begin in the present. Our vision for CCRS is not only to support Singapore’s resilience strategy, but also to be a world leading centre in tropical climate and weather research with particular focus on the Southeast Asia region. At the helm of the new research centre is Dr Chris Gordon, previously of the

UK Met Office, where he headed the world renowned Met Office Hadley Centre.

Dr Gordon brings along more than 30 years of experience in climate science research. He will spearhead the

establishment and capability-building of the Centre, and guide climate and weather research.

Dr Gordon will head a team of about 25 staff at CCRS, and will help grow the number of research scientists over the next few years.

He said.“I am committed to building up the expertise of the CCRS and widening its international partnerships, as well as building a strong team of local and international scientists, and inspiring more young people in Singapore to take up climate science research.

“The scientific understanding of the dynamical and physical processes governing tropical climate and weather systems will naturally be the primary focus of CCRS. “Improving our ability to predict extreme weather such as heavy rain, and project long-term climate change, is one of the key challenges for the centre.”

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ENERGY EFFICIENCY

energy efficiency evolves Research from Frost & Sullivan reveals business opportunities in key regional markets

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s wIdespread enerGy subsidies increase many regional governments’ fiscal liability, the provision of cheap electricity may become unsustainable across Southeast Asia. Furthermore, the prospects of attracting private-sector investment could be dimmed if electricity prices are maintained at current levels.

As a result, there is a compelling need to rationalise energy prices and push up energy bills. This would affect industries’ competitiveness, but several companies have introduced energy-efficient products that

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Contributor Suchitra Sriram, program manager, energy & environment, frost & sullivan yield energy savings of anything from 10 to 30 per cent.

The energy efficiency (EE) market has been the underdogof the Southeast Asia region, despite the presence of government regulatory support. From an industrial perspective, manufacturers acknowledge the benefits of adopting energy-efficient products

and solutions, but this has not been converted into actual investment. This could be due to various reasons, listed below: l Industrial

customers are unwilling to invest in ‘non-core’ businesses that prioritise which production, ensuring safety and maintaining environmental standards. l A weak business case – high capital expenditure and long payback period – backed up with low confidence levels in EE projects’ results. Concerns remain regarding equipment down-time, faults

“several companies have introduced energy-efficient products that could result in energy savings of 10 to 30 per cent�

and issues of technological complexity that may arise during project execution. l A lack of staff who are trained to identify and execute EE projects to the desired standard.

So far, investment potential for industrial energy-efficiency projects in Southeast Asia is the highest in countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand because of the concentration of numerous energyintensive industries. EE projects in these countries have been undertaken using proven technologies and processes such as the replacement of heating, ventilation

and air-conditioning systems; generators; improvements to pipes and insulation; increased processing of waste; fuel optimisation and making the most of the existing infrastructure.

Energy efficiency measures Singapore and Thailand are growing markets for industrial EE projects, and Southeast Asia is likely to dominate the industry until at least 2015.

The markets in Indonesia and Malaysia are smaller and are estimated to be at the nascent stage, but offers significant potential Issue 4

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ENERGY EFFICIENCY

for future expansion. Unless energy subsidies are removed, EE market growth in Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam is likely to remain subdued in the short-term.

Subsidies tend to increase consumption and discourage efficient use of energy, but Malaysia’s fairly mature energy market makes it likely that it will fare better than Indonesia and Vietnam.

enerGy effIcIency tarGets In sOutheast asIa

Industries view ‘energy efficiency’ as ongoing goals to be revised periodically in order to achieve the desired result – the ability to offer profitable products or services.

With the exception of Thailand, the lack of private funding mechanisms for EE projects is a restraint found in many countries in the region. In such cases, governments need to take primary responsibility for providing the

majOr enerGyIntensIve IndustrIes

funds needed to kick-start market growth.

With high initial costs to consider, an EE project’s financial feasibility is the most important factor influencing a company’s decision of whether or not to become involved in it. Nevertheless, businesses also consider the prevailing regulations, policy support and general level of risk in countries in which they plan to invest.

GOvernment IncentIve mechanIsms fOr IndustrIes, sOutheast asIa, 2012 National energy plan

Government direct transfers

Financial incentives

Voluntary measures

Pharma, semiconductors, petrochemicals

✔

✔

✔

✔

Reduce final energy consumption in the

Rubber, food processing, beverages, inorganic

✔

✘

✔

✘

industrial, commercial and residential sectors

chemicals

✔

✘

✔

✘

✔

✔

✔

✘

✔

✘

✘

✘

Country

Energy efficiency targets

Major energy-intensive industries

Singapore

Reduce energy intensity by 20% by 2020 and by 35% by 2030 from 2005 levels

Malaysia

by 10% from 2011 to 2030 Indonesia

Thailand

Vietnam

Reduce final energy consumption by 1% per

Textiles, paper and pulp, chemicals, steel,

year from the business-as-usual scenario

cement, fertilisers

Save 22% of total energy in 2030 relative to

Food processing, automotive sector, textiles,

the business-as-usual scenario

electric appliances and components

Reduce energy consumption by 3-5% by 2010

Metals manufacturing, cement, fertilisers,

and between 5-8% by 2010-2015

chemicals, textiles

Source: Frost & Sullivan

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IndustrIal enerGy effIcIency measures

IndustrIal enerGy effIcIency market In sOutheast asIa 700

Lighting systems lighting power controls high-efficiency lamps

EE improvement measures

Power and thermal generating systems cogeneration (gas engine, gas and steam turbine)

HVAC chiller and equipment replacement heat recovery

Power generating system power plant substation

cAgr 9.2%

600

Revenues ($million)

Motor systems variable speed drives motor optimisation

500 400 300 200

cAgr 12.8%

cAgr 16.3% cAgr 14.3%

100

ESCOs EE market development In the EE industry value chain, energy service companies, or ESCOs, form the crux of developing EE market opportunities. ESCOs offer a gamut of services, from energy audits, performance guarantees, bidding and procurement to installation, system integration, commissioning, operation and maintenance.

The ESCO industry is currently highly fragmented and geographically diverse, catering to a variety of industrial and commercial customers.

The majority of industries in the region prefer to use the services of energy service companies (ESCOs) because they offer performance guarantees.

l Thailand

tops the list of countries in which the number of ESCOs comprising both regional and local companies is rising. The country launched the pioneering Energy Conservation (ENCON) Fund way back in 1992 and the 2008 ESCO fund to attract private-sector participation in EE projects that eventually led to the growth of its domestic ESCO market. l Singapore’s business-friendly environment has attracted several ESCOs that cater to the regional market requirements.

In addition to accredited ESCOs in the market, several companies offer EE retrofits and EPC services. l Indonesia’s ESCO market is currently the least developed in the region. Although ESCOs have the capability to undertake energy audits, they lack the technical or

IndustrIal enerGy effIcIency market In sOutheast asIa – key trends

nd

vi et na m

al

la

2015

th ai

in do ne sia

2012

ay s

ia

0

m

Thermal generating system heat recovery (hrfr) heat pump

cAgr 8.0%

Demand side: Power control systems load management power quality control

sin ga po re

Sizing optimise size for high load factor standby unit

financial competence to offer performance guarantees for EE projects.

Conclusion Southeast Asia’s industrial EE market is highly heterogeneous in nature, with varied demand patterns, policy support and awareness levels.

Sustainable growth in the EE market calls for quick adaptation of best practice within the industry in terms of policies, regulatory frameworks and the establishment of adequate financing mechanisms to address industries’ concerns.

As the outlook for electricity prices in the region guarantees that tariffs will be revised upwards, industries must urgently adopt EE practices if they are to control the impact of spiralling costs.

escO Industry

Market stage

2012 market size ($Million)

2015 market size ($Million)

CAGR (%)

Number of ESCO companies

Presence of ESCO association

ESCOs capabilities*

Growth

130.0

186.8

12.8

34

✔

4

Nascent

65.0

97.0

14.3

12

✔

3

Nascent

115.6

181.8

16.3

13

✔

2

Growth

445.0

580.0

9.2

37

✘

5

Nascent

32.7

41.2

8.0

20

✘

2

*(1=lowest, 5=highest)

Issue 4

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ENERGY EFFICIENCY

bold business solutions As founder and head of nonprofit thinktank Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), Dr Amory Lovins has pioneered energy efficiency.

In the recent book Reinventing Fire, of which he was senior author, he outlined an informed approach to weaning the US off oil, coal and nuclear energy. Speaking at a recent NEA event, Dr Lovins shared his insights on what the future could hold for business and economies worldwide

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for the neW energy era

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f a 2050 ecOnOmy weaned off oil and coal at a saving of US$5 trillion – an economy that is 158 per cent bigger and emits 82-86 per cent less carbon, all with no new inventions or national laws – makes you sit up straight, then you’re already on to what Dr Amory Lovins has to say.

While those figures are specific to the US, as featured in his recent business book Reinventing Fire, the logic behind the numbers has implications for countries worldwide – reasoning that is exciting senior energy experts in Asia.

Re-examining the role of energy Prepared by 61 RMI analysts over a period of 18 months at a cost of US$6 million, with much help from business in the form of content and peer reviews, Reinventing Fire encourages governments and businesses to rethink energy and its links with climate, oil, national security, economic vitality and global development. Spanning traditional silos, the RMI team followed advice ascribed to General Eisenhower: “When a problem cannot be solved, enlarge it.” Thus Reinventing Fire integrates all four energy

using sectors – transport, buildings, industry and materials – and four kinds of innovation, including design and business strategy as well as technology and public policy. The results are astonishing.

“Could we imagine fuel without fear?

Could we reinvent fire?,” says Dr Lovins.

“Fire made us human, fossil fuels made us modern; but now we need a new fuel that makes us safe, secure, healthy and durable.”

He adds: “This is, indeed, currently feasible and could even cost less than what we are doing now.”

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About four-fifths of the world’s energy still comes from burning, each year, about 19 cubic km of what Dr Lovins, a member of the US National Petroleum Council, calls “the rotted remains of primeval swamp goo.”

These fossil fuels have built civilisation, increased wealth and enriched the lives of billions of people. Yet their rising costs to security, economy, health and the environment are eroding, if not outweighing, their benefits.

“We need a new fire,” he says. “This means changing two stories, oil and electricity, each which puts two-fifths of the fossil carbon into the air. They’re distinct but their uses are similarly concentrated – in the US, for example, three quarters of our oil fuels transport and three quarters of our electricity powers buildings; the rest of each runs factories.

“Fuel-efficient transport, buildings and factories can save a lot of oil, coal and natural gas that could displace both.”

The value of untapped efficiency gains Dr Lovins cites that today’s energy system, especially in the US, is not just inefficient – it’s also ageing, dirty and insecure. In short, it

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“We could eliminate our addiction to oil and coal by 2050 and use a third less natural gas While sWitching to threefold more efficient use and three-fourths reneWable supplies” needs refurbishment. Yet he believes that, by 2050, it could become efficient, connected, and distributed, with elegantly frugal autos, buildings and factories all relying on a secure, modern and resilient electricity system.”

“We could eliminate our addiction to oil and coal by 2050 and use a third less natural gas while switching to threefold more efficient use and three-fourths renewable supplies,” he says. “This transition could cost the US$5 trillion less in net present value by 2050 than

‘business as usual,’ assuming that carbon release and all other external or hidden costs are worth zero – a conservative estimate.

“Yet this cheaper energy system could be achieved without any new national taxes, subsidies, mandates or laws, thereby evading the gridlock in Washington.”

The policy changes needed to enable and speed the shift can all happen administratively or at the sub-national level, using the most effective institutions – which in the US means private enterprise, evolving with civil society and sped by military innovation – to go around the least effective institutions.

“This also cuts across ideological divides,” he says, “because whether you care most about profits and jobs and competitive advantage, national security or environmental stewardship, public health, and climate protection, reinventing fire makes sense and makes money.”

Low-carbon vehicle technology is critical Dr Lovins uses autos as a key case study. He said: “Currently in the US, three-fifths of our mobility fuels goes to autos, so let’s start by making them oil-free. Two-thirds of the energy

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needed to move a car is caused by its weight.

Unfortunately, over the past quarter-century our two-tonne steel autos have suffered an epidemic of obesity, gaining weight twice as quickly as we have done; however, if we take a unit of weight out of the car, then every unit of energy it saves at the wheels saves six more units that we do not need to waste on getting it to the wheels, saving a total of seven units at the tank. That’s huge leverage.

“How can we do that? We can use an ultra-light and ultra-strong structure, such as advanced carbon-fibre composites, that can make dramatic weight savings snowball yet make autos simpler and cheaper to build.

“Lighter, more slippery autos need less force to move them, so their engine gets smaller, and then we can afford to electrify the propulsion. As the electric batteries or fuel cells get two to threefold lighter and cheaper, the price of the auto falls to about the same as today’s models, whilst the operating price per kilometre is lower from the start.

“These synergistic innovations of ultralight materials, new structural manufacturing methods, and electrical propulsion – three steep learning curves that all reinforce each other – can create a breakthrough competitive strategy for automakers.”

He also details how vehicle prices can drop even faster through the implementation of a ‘feebate’ for buyers – a rebate for efficient autos paid for by a fee on inefficient ones.

The point of the feebate is to get auto buyers to look at fuel savings over the full 15-year lifecycle, reflecting society’s long-term interests while incidentally improving profits for carmakers and dealers.

With such innovation in the auto sector, Dr Lovins believes that “This resulting shift to electric autos will be as game changing as shifting from small improvements in typewriters to the dramatic, Moore’s Law driven improvement in computers.”

“Taking the obesity out of the car can triple the expected oil savings over the next 40 years and make attractive, and affordable, the electrification that saves the rest of the oil,” he said. Surprisingly, the ultralighting needn’t raise manufacturing costs – the expensive carbon fibre is paid for by simpler structural manufacturing, cutting capital needs by four-fifths; and by the smaller propulsion system.

America, Japan or China could lead this revolution, and it would make an excellent fit to Singapore’s industrial system if there were local interest, according to Dr Lovins.

The barriers are formidable, but mainly in carmaking culture than in technology or economics, and some automotive leaders are starting to tackle them – especially

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“taking the obesity out of the car can triple the expected oil savings over the next 40 years, and make attractive and affordable the electrification that saves the rest of the oil” in Germany. Volkswagen and BMW are launching mass production of carbon-fibre electric cars this year.

Audi has demonstrated a carbon fibre plugin, hybrid-concept four-wheel drive vehicle whose fuel efficiency has been rated at less than 0.9 metric litres per 100km.

“The same business logic and technologies apply also to big vehicles such as trucks and aeroplanes,” Dr Lovins says.

“Tripled efficiency is in view for both, sped up by military innovation in advanced efficiency. This will spread back to the civilian sector – which uses over 50 times as much oil as the military – much as military R&D brought us the internet, GPS and the jet engine and microchip industries. Then off oil sooner so we needn’t fight over it.”

As we design and build better vehicles, we can also use them in smarter ways, he says.

“Singapore has been a global pioneer in charging drivers for their true social cost.

“We can reduce driving by charging for road infrastructure by the kilometre rather than the litre. We can use IT to make public transport more attractive and enable car and

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ride sharing. Those business models work because the average asset utilisation of the average US car is only 4 per cent. We can encourage or require smart growth or New Urbanist development patterns so that many people can already be where they need to be and not have to go somewhere else. IT can also make traffic flow more freely.

“Together, these proven innovations can provide the same US mobility with 46-84 per cent less driving.”

By combining today’s best vehicleefficiency techniques with more productive vehicle use, Dr Lovins believes that, by 2050, a far more mobile US economy could function without oil and save US$4 trillion at net present value – or $12 trillion if economic and military costs of US oil dependence were taken into account.

“The strategy,” he says, “is to get efficient, and then switch fuels to any mixture of hydrogen, natural gas or advanced biofuels.”

The business shift from fossil fuels Dr Lovins has observed that institutional change is coming – business logic has begun to shift and a transition from fossil fuels is already underway.

Mainstream analysts are already seeing peak oil emerge – not in supply but in demand. Deutsche Bank forecast in 2009 that world oil use could peak in about 2016 simply because oil is becoming uncompetitive even at low prices before it becomes unavailable even at high prices.

But Dr Lovins notes the electrified cars that help make that happen need not burden the electricity system.

“When smart vehicles exchange electricity and information via smart buildings with smart grids, they add to the grid distributed storage and flexibility that help it accept varying solar and wind power. Thus it’s Issue 4

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easier to solve the auto and electricity problems together than separately.”

It is important to note the coupling of sourcing the energy as well as its use.

“How we generate electricity gets easier if we need less of it. Most of it is now wasted, and efficiency technologies continue to improve faster than we install them. The unbought ‘negawatts’ of saved energy keep getting bigger and cheaper,” he says.

“As we get better at installing efficiency in buildings and factories, so they start to get faster more efficient than they grow, US electricity use, rather than growing 1 per cent per year, it could shrink at the same rate despite the electrified autos.”

Retrofits yield attractive savings Reinventing Fire showed how buildings in the US could triple or quadruple their energy productivity by 2050, saving US$1.4 trillion

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office equipment, cut the maximum cooling load by a third. Renovating smaller chillers rather than adding bigger ones saved over US$17 million of capital costs, covering the cost of most of the other improvements and cutting the payback to three years.

The potential is often larger in Asia.

Retrofitting the Rohm semiconductor company’s Kyoto office saved 44 per cent of its energy, with a two-year payback, without even using superwindows. Even the most efficient new offices in Japan lag behind their US counterparts, and Japan ranks 10th of 11 major industrial countries in the efficiency of its commercial buildings, which use on average 2.6 times the energy per square metre of their German counterparts.

Dr Lovins reports that some US retrofits of commercial buildings that use integrative design now save up to 70 per cent, making them even more energy-efficient than new buildings – a testament to how fast the state of the art technology is moving.

“The key is using integrative design to give multiple benefits from single expenditures,” he says. For example, his superefficient house – which has grown 47 indoor banana crops high in the Rocky Mountains with no furnace despite outdoor temperatures down to -44ºC – has a central arch with 12 functions but only one cost.

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net present value with a 33 per cent internal rate of return.

“The savings are worth four times their cost,” Dr Lovins says. “Moreover, integrative design can often make very large energy savings cost less than small or no savings, turning diminishing returns into expanding returns. That’s how our retrofit two years ago saved two-fifths of the energy used in New York’s Empire State Building – optimising the building as a whole system, not its components in isolation.”

In that case study, an energy retrofit was added to a half-billion-dollar renovation.

Remanufacturing the building’s 6,514 double-glazed windows at a temporary onsite facility quadrupled the insulation they provide, rendering them almost perfect for blocking heat while enabling light to pass.

These so-called ‘superwindows,’ plus other improvements including better lights and

Energy productivity could double In industry, with a half-trillion dollars of conventional US energy-saving potential, RMI found a US potential to double energy productivity by 2050 with a 21 per cent internal rate of return. But integrative design can also improve common equipment, such as the motor systems that use three-fifths of the world’s electricity.

Half of that electricity runs pumps and fans. Yet just replacing thin, long, crooked pipes with fat, short, straight ones often saves 80 to 90 per cent of pumping energy and shrinks the pumps and motors, reducing capital cost. That’s not a new technology – just a change in design mentality that Dr Lovins learnt from Singapore engineer Lee Eng Lock.

Moreover, each unit of friction saved in the pipes saves 10 units of fuel at the power station, because the compounding losses in between reverse into snowballing savings.

Many diverse industrial redesign projects have realised this in a variety of contexts, including chip fabrication, data centres and petrochemical plants. For example, a frontend chip fabrication plant that RMI helped Texas Instruments to design saved 30 per cent of its capital cost as well as much of its energy and water.

Speeding the shift to renewables Needing less electricity can speed ways to better ways of producing it, chiefly from renewable sources.

“Both solar and wind farm electricity costs have dropped dramatically with the trillion dollars invested in modern renewable power since 2004,” says Dr Lovins.

“In fact, in 2011 renewables excluding hydropower won a quarter-trillion dollars’ worth of private investment, added 84 GW and reached 1.5 times the installed capacity of nuclear worldwide. Orders for nuclear and coal plants are going away worldwide as they cost too much and carry too much risk for private investors.

“In contrast, renewable energy prices keep going down. Gas, efficiency and renewables have already taken a third of coal’s US market in six years and are poised to take the rest at below just the operating cost of existing coal and even many nuclear plants.”

This is in the face of common logic that such ‘reliable’ sources as coal or nuclear are essential to maintaining power grid stability.

“We are often told that coal and nuclear are the only power sources that can keep the lights on 24/7, but no plant is 24/7,” he adds.

“Any power source can go down, often without warning and for weeks or months at a time. But grids have been designed to handle this sort of intermittence and can equally well handle the variability of photovoltaics and wind power when they’re diversified, forecasted and integrated. If excess renewable energy is put into icestorage air conditioning and smart charging of electric vehicles, the isolated Texas electricity system, for example, can reliably meet load every hour of the year with no bulk storage,” he says.

Such choreography of diverse renewable sources is already underway, especially in Europe. In 2010, four German states were 43 to 52 per cent wind powered, Portugal was 45 per cent renewable powered and Denmark, 36 per cent. Denmark has gone from having a highly centralised coal powered grid to using decentralised wind farms and cogeneration.

Germany is one-fourth renewable-powered – a figure that doubled in five years and is slated to double again by about 2025. These cases show that countries can greatly expand and integrate renewable sources – especially when combined with energy efficiency.

Microgrids offer stability According to Dr Lovins, decentralising and compartmentalising grids into microgrids that can operate separately if necessary can eliminate the risk of widespread outage by any number of causes such as a cyber-attack, severe weather, solar storm or earthquake.

“our future energy Will be not dug from beloW but floW from above” “This can greatly improve national security at virtually the same cost,” he says.

Dr Lovins runs his house in this ‘islandable’ fashion; the Pentagon has adopted the same strategy for its own power supply. Fifteen US states have reversed their regulatory incentive, rewarding electricity providers not for selling more energy but for cutting customers’ bills.

“This alignment of utilities’ with customers’ interests,” Dr Lovins adds: “This alignment of utilities with customers’ interests profoundly shifts their culture and behaviour.”

Asia: brimming with opportunities Systematically applied to vehicles, buildings, industrial processes, and electricity generation these energy innovations add up to a ‘once in a civilisation’ opportunity.

Led by business, sped by smart policies in mindful markets, the US can be off oil and coal by 2050, saving trillions of dollars, growing the economy 2.6-fold, making major blackouts impossible and cutting fossil carbon emissions by 82 to 86 per cent.

Strong interest in this approach among Chinese policymakers has led RMI to form a consortium to help apply Reinventing

Fire’s innovations to Chinese strategic energy planning. Also valuable for Asian development is the potentially huge capital savings if the best buys – especially efficient use of electricity – are bought first, deferring or avoiding extremely capital-intensive investments in electricity supply.

Dr Lovins estimates from World Bank data that investing in building devices that save electricity rather than expanding power stations and grids can take roughly 1,000 times less capital which can be paid back about 10 times as fast.

This combination can cut capital needs by about 10,000 times in the power sector, which uses about a quarter of the world’s development capital. Turning that sector into a net exporter of capital for other development needs, Dr Lovins believes, could be the most powerful known macroeconomic lever for global development.

“These best energy buys are also the most effective solutions to climate change, nuclear proliferation, energy insecurity and energy poverty, he adds.

“Our future energy will be not dug from below but flow from above, and will be plentiful, permanent, everywhere and free.

This ‘new fire’ really could make energy do our work without working our undoing.”

Reinventing Fire, its technical background, a TED talk about it, and a Foreign Affairs summary are all at reinventingfire.com

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ENERGY EFFICIENCY

a bright idea Energy-efficient lighting makes economic and environmental sense.

But how should business make the switch?

The light-emitting diode (LED) is one of the most energy-efficient and rapidly developing forms of lighting technology. LEDs are the size of a fleck of pepper and a mix of red, green and blue bulbs is typically used to make white light.

Advantages l Does not consume any power once switched off l Efficiency at least equal to that of fluorescent lighting l Extremely long lamp life – up to 50,000 hours l Achieves maximum intensity immediately and should not flicker l As bright as tungsten and fluorescent bulbs l Wide variety of light colours available. l Achieves full brightness immediately l Produces little heat or UV light l Easily switched on and dimmed l Does not contain mercury l Typically offers comparable or better light quality than other types of energy-efficient bulbs l LEDs are much cooler than incandescent lights, therefore, reducing the risk of combustion or burnt fingers l LEDs are made with epoxy lenses, not glass, and are much more resistant to breakage Disadvantages l Expensive

ht?

is rig t h g i l o c e h Whic

many in s e m o lighting c in pros and cons y g r e n e a Low are the m e r e H . s form of each Compact fluorescent lights (CFLs) are the most commonly used energy-efficient light bulbs, generating about 75 per cent less heat than their conventional equivalents. They last about 10 times longer than traditional tungsten incandescent bulbs, according to the US Government’s EnergyStar scheme.

Advantages l Cheaper than other efficient lights l Easy to install in conventional sockets l Wide variety of colours and applications

l Poorly

designed LEDs may not be long-lasting or efficient – look out for bulbs accredited by government schemes such as the USA’s EnergyStar mark l Can be harder to mount into light fittings

Halogen lamps give off warm and pleasing light, and can be readily dimmed using proper controls which can provide visual enhancements. But compared to other more efficient lamps, they won’t save as much energy and can add heat load.

Advantages least 25 per cent more energy efficient than traditional incandescent light bulbs l Provides warm light tones l Most similar in lighting quality to old-school incandescents l Works with dimmers l Less expensive to buy than LED bulbs and most CFLs l Does not contain mercury l At

Disadvantages energy-efficient than CFLs and LEDs l Shorter lifespan l Can be more expensive when both replacement bulb costs and energy savings are taken into account l Can become very hot – potential fire hazard l Less

Disadvantages start-up time l Contain traces of mercury, so must be disposed of with care l Some people do not like the colour of light they emit l Longer

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GOInG retrO Lighting retrofits range from replacing a few bulbs to buying high-tech systems for huge business premises.

What do company owners need to know?

What are the benefits?

The payback on lighting upgrades can be felt in as little as a year. Energy-efficient lighting upgrades can reduce electricity consumption by up to 80 per cent.

Reducing the number and intensity of lights also lowers room temperature, decreasing the need for air conditioning.

vIsIble results Changing bulbs can boost morale and productivity Turnover Workplace design has a big impact on employee satisfaction – and turnover rates. Research has shown that staff feel more settled when they can control light and temperature.

Satisfaction The eyes of a 60-year-old employee may receive only 40 per cent as much light as those of someone half their age. Combining direct and indirect lighting or, better still, installing dimmer switches, benefits physical and mental health by giving staff greater control over working conditions.

Motivation Lighting affects the human circadian system and can affect workers’ performance. Staff productivity affects most businesses’ bottom lines far more than energy savings – reason alone to install systems that maximise daylight and offer greater individual control.

Flexibility Firms are increasingly adopting wireless lighting controls, which offer building owners and facilities managers more options when it comes to making the most of a space.

Reputation When companies reduce the environmental impact of their operations, it’s good to spread the word. Use environmental and corporate social responsibility reports to tell others about the changes – customers, clients and stakeholders are unlikely to disapprove.

e? g n a h c o t e m ti The decision to use energy efficient lighting is a logical step, but how and when should it be installed? Whether you plan to wait until existing light bulbs fail or invest in an extensive refit, here are some factors to consider: l Firms

can make significant direct savings by switching to efficient lighting because 20 to 50 per cent of the electricity they use comes from lighting, depending on the nature of the operation. l Lighting represents about 17.5 per cent of energy use worldwide, according to Pike Research’s report Energy Efficiency Lighting for Commercial Markets. l Replacing light bulbs – without undertaking full-scale lighting design – is the cheapest and easiest way in which companies can make lighting more efficient. l Businesses with the resources to undertake more extensive upgrades can consider replacing all bulbs with LED technology. Improved efficiency and increased savings can make this a costeffective investment within a relatively short timeframe. l Firms should consider installing lighting controls that take advantage of daylight harvesting – natural light coming in through windows. l Light bulbs aren’t the only factor to consider. Companies increasingly install lighting timers, dimmer switches, and light and movement sensors to reduce energy wasted on illuminating empty spaces or those flooded with sunlight.

Use of such technology could reduce lighting energy use by 50 to 75 per cent, according to lighting manufacturer GE. l Reducing the amount of lighting also reduces the amount of heat it emits, leading to further energy and money savings in hot climates in which firms are dependent on air conditioning.

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source: realenergywriters.com and the daily energy report

What does it cost?

Replacing light bulbs is the cheapest and easiest way to improve lighting efficiency. Firms that opt for solid-state lighting such as LED technology will pay more at the outset, but this can be a very cost-effective investment in the longer term.

Some lighting controls contain sensors that automatically dim bulbs when sunlight is optimal or when spaces are empty.

Building owners can boost lighting efficiency by using reflective paint and other surface coatings, reducing the height of workspace partitions and simply rearranging furniture.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

cut emissions to boost competitiveness Effective from April 2013, major industries will be subject to new measures laid out in the Energy Conservation Act (ECA).

This summary examines the responsibilities, incentives and opportunities for business

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Overnments and industry globally are grappling with the interrelated issues of rising energy costs and increasingly severe effects of climate change.

Key to these issues is a reduction of energy consumption, as well as making usage as effective and efficient as possible.

The benefits are numerous: from reducing greenhouse gas emissions to improving international competitiveness of industry, and even enhancing nations’ energy security.

Targeting a 35 per cent improvement in energy intensity for the country by 2030 from 2005 levels, as outlined in the Singapore Sustainable Development Blueprint, the Singapore government has

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introduced the ECA to improve energy performance, industry competitiveness, encourage investment in energy efficiency and ensure a coordinated approach to energy efficiency standards across all sectors.

The ECA also serves to demonstrate that Singapore is serious about meeting its mitigation targets and international responsibilities, much in stride with other countries such as Denmark, South Korea, and Japan, which have have similar energy management requirements as the ECA. So what’s in store for industry? The mandatory energy management practices outlined in the ECA will affect companies using more than 54 TJ of energy annually.

This will mean areas of the economy such

as oil refining, petrochemicals, semiconductor wafer fabrication and other large industrial enterprises will be affected under the legislation.

Such enterprises will be required to appoint at least one energy manager from among its employees, monitor and report energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, and submit energy efficiency improvement plans every year. the new eca comes after consultation in 2009 by the Ministry of Environment and Water Resources and NEA with different industry sub-sectors to understand their energy management practices.

The legislation was gazetted in June 2012 and came into effect in 2013, thereby giving

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

further time for local industry to adjust to the new measures. The NEA will administer the energy management requirements for the industry sector and non-compliances with the ECA will result in fines.

While aspects like appointing energy managers are new under the legislation, the ECA also serves to complement a wide variety of existing capacity development and financial assistance measures.

Some existing capacity building initiatives for industry include Singapore Certified Energy Manager (SCEM) Programme, for which a training grant is available to co-fund about 80 per cent of the training cost of the professional level SCEM programme.

Other financial incentives such as the Energy Efficiency Improvement Assistance Scheme co-fund up to 50 per cent of the cost of engaging an energy consultant or energy services company to conduct a detailed energy assessment. Also, the Grant for Energy Efficient Technologies co-funds up to 20 per cent of the cost of energy efficient equipment or technologies.

To assist companies in their efforts to comply with the mandatory energy management requirements under the ECA, a new one-stop centre called the Energy Efficiency Promotion Centre (EEPC) has also been launched to provide an integrated and responsive service to meet companies’ needs for improving energy efficiency.

While it will take time to shift industry energy practices, the new ECA coupled with the incentives, training, and assistance available will prove useful to companies as they take action. There are many opportunities that companies can seize in the process of pursuing energy efficiency. accOrdInG tO consultancy Accenture, companies wishing to go a step further can investigate Enterprise Energy Management systems that cut across the people, process, technology, and governance aspects of their operations.

Not only will such an approach help companies meet the requirements of the ECA, it will also ensure that companies are more able to respond to changing local or global energy circumstances by having better access to real time information, that energy management considerations are firmly entrenched in decision making, and that tools are in place to allow for better management.

While this approach would require the support of a company’s senior management and take some upfront investment, with a longer term time horizon in mind, it could help realise cost savings and operational

“the eca also serves to demonstrate that singapore is serious about meeting its mitigation targets and international responsibilities, much in stride With other countries” benefits. Taking into account the challenging global business environment, with proper implementation and alignment to such standards as ISO 50001, taking such a comprehensive and proactive approach to energy management could advance competitiveness.

Being energy nimble in the face of economic uncertainties could prove quite worthwhile. In one example, Accenture cites how Dow Chemical improved energy efficiency globally by 22 per cent between 1994 and 2005. This amounted to a cost saving of US$4 billion. The company is now seeking another 25 per cent improvement from 2005-2015. In another case, United Technologies Corporation cut its greenhouse gas emissions globally by 46 per cent per dollar of revenue from 2001 to 2006.

The benefits of improving energy efficiency are also evident among companies in Singapore. For example, Aventis Pharma replaced its existing air-cooled chiller plants with a more efficient centralised watercooled chiller plant and achieved an annual energy cost savings of S$1.1 million. As a result of the project, Aventis Pharma’s electricity consumption was reduced by 32 per cent. In another instance, Total Singapore recovered waste heat from its process plant (which was previously rejected to the atmosphere) to pre-heat process feed and provide cooling to the entire facility. The project resulted in a significant reduction in the facility’s electricity consumption.

It is clear that with the arrival of the ECA, industrial energy use in Singapore is tipped for improvement in the years ahead. Whether companies take a more compliance focused response to the new legislation, or pursue a proactive enterprise-wide approach to energy efficiency improvements, there are numerous benefits to taking action.

what yOu need tO knOw Energy Conservation Act (ECA) This legislation came into effect in April 2013 and will shape how Singapore’s major energy consuming industries will make efficiency improvements http://app2.nea.gov.sg/IndustrySector. aspx Energy Efficiency Promotion Centre (EEPC) To assist companies in meeting mandatory energy management requirements under the ECA, this onestop centre will: l Assist companies on matters relating to the mandatory energy management requirements l Provide general guidance and related advice on energy efficiency investments l Help companies apply for incentives and grants for energy efficiency projects l Support companies to undertake integrated design for new facilities l Identify service providers, industry energy professionals and energy efficiency experts to meet companies’ specific requirements l Identify capability gaps and develop initiatives to bridge the gap through training and workshops l Act as an exchange for energy efficiency knowledge, skills, best practices and share case studies l Forge strategic knowledge partnerships to help companies integrate energy efficiency as a strategic management tool Companies can get in touch with the EEPC via hotline at 6731 9871 or email at nea_eepc@nea.gov.sg Energy Efficiency Improvement Assistance Scheme NEA co-funds up to 50 per cent of the cost of engaging an energy consultant or energy services company to conduct a detailed energy assessment http://tinyurl.com/avwqjkh Grant for Energy Efficient Technologies NEA co-funds up to 20 per cent of the cost of energy efficient equipment or technologies http://tinyurl.com/bxqg4x2

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training for the future t

O achIeve the vIsIOn for an energy-efficient Singapore, it was important to grow a sizeable pool of skilled professionals in the energy sector to support industry energy-efficiency improvement plans.

To this end, NEA’s Singapore Environment Institute (SEI) and the Energy Sustainability Unit (ESU) at NUS worked together to develop the training and certification framework for the Singapore Certified Energy Manager (SCEM) programme in the lead-up to 2008.

The SCEM is conceived as an industry manpower capability development initiative to develop professional energy managers to raise the energy performance of energyintensive industries.

SEI had played an instrumental role in kick-starting the SCEM training programme targeted at the industry sector as there was a lack of local training expertise in industrial energy efficiency then. Building Construction Authority (BCA) Academy concurrently took care of developing the training modules for the building sector.

As part of the certification process, a participant has to complete an intensive 144-hour training programme comprising four core and two elective modules, and pass examinations before earning the credentials

as a certified energy manager.

There are two certifiable training levels, namely the Associate SCEM course that is targeted at diploma-level candidates and the Professional SCEM course that is targeted at degree holders.

Today, the BCA Academy, the Sustainable Energy Association of Singapore (SEAS) and the Institution of Engineers Singapore (IES) conduct the SCEM training at the Professional level.

The BCA Academy and SEAS also offer training at Associate level. Some diplomas taught at Singapore Polytechnic and Temasek Polytechnic have also been accredited as SCEM Associate-level training programmes.

Looking ahead, there are plans to introduce SCEM programmes targeting senior executives whose roles include improving the energy efficiency of their companies’ operations.

berkeley – seI IndustrIal enerGy manaGement executIve prOGramme 2013 Learn from the leaders and improve your organisation’s energy performance!

Presented by the Singapore Environment Institute, from 19-26 June 2013, join in a top-notch programme designed for senior executives with energy management responsibilities.

This executive programme will be held at the University of California, Berkeley with experts also from the Georgia Institute of Technology. Participants will receive a global perspective in energy management while exercising rigour

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industrial facilities, research centres, and participation in Energy Management Congress West 2013 in Las Vegas will help give participants a comprehensive learning experience in the USA. For the latest details as they are announced and to register, please visit nea.gov.sg/sei in local implementation. Top experts will help set a clear, optimal path to energy efficiency, enhance facility optimisation and sustainability, and implement improvement initiatives that improve ROI. Lectures, discussions, site visits to

I N C O L L A B O R AT I O N W I T H :

INDUSTRY INNOVATION

plugging into knoW-hoW

The Energy Conservation Act is a major development for industry in Singapore – and a new training facility is helping to build capacity.

ENVISION joins the inaugural class

I

t’s nearInG 9am as a 30-strong crew assembles at McKinsey Green Campus.

All engineers, they have travelled from afar to Jurong Island, where they will be equipped with the skills to spur operational improvements at their home facilities.

The centre is a collaboration between the NEA, Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB), McKinsey & Company and Petrofac.

Building materials firm Holcim has sent the delegates, known as ‘coaches,’ from its facilities across Southeast Asia – it’s hoped they will act as ambassadors for change upon their return to work.

As they assemble in a conference room, course moderators prepare the day’s learning materials and outline the content of the intensive two-day workshop.

Holcim staff then introduce themselves; many are meeting for the first time. As a manufacturer of cement, aggregates

and asphalt, the firm has a keen interest in reducing its energy consumption and greenhouse gas footprint.

With Asia as one of its largest growth regions, it seized the opportunity to train and empower its workforce to make energyefficiency improvements. The opening of the

“it is the first initiative of this kind for singapore and a first for asia. it’s about helping companies go green and lean” Dr Mads Lauritzen, Green Campus Global Leader

McKinsey Green Campus was, therefore, timely; based at the Petrofac training facility, it delivers a variety of hands-on courses in a live industrial environment.

Global challenges The initiative is part of Singapore’s larger push to develop industry capacity to meet a growing number of energy challenges.

S Iswaran, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office and Second Minister for Home Affairs and Trade & Industry, outlined the macro-issues at play at the campus’ opening in late 2012.

He said: “Global energy demand is projected to grow by 28 per cent from 2009 to 2035, and energy market gyrations are exacerbated by the increased volatility and uncertainties in global energy markets and oil prices.

“There is also rising pressure for global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions ISSUE 4

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and to mitigate climate change. As a small country with a relatively large industrial footprint, Singapore is also studying how we can reduce our energy demand and carbon footprint as part of our sustainable economic growth.

“To this end, the Singapore Government has invested in various efforts to encourage more efficient energy use and to build up capabilities in energy management.”

The scale of industrial activity on Jurong Island made the site of particular interest.

Consultancies such as McKinsey were already working to highlight energy efficiency opportunities, develop best practices and explore infrastructure planning.

With sites elsewhere in the world, each focusing on different aspects of operational excellence, it was a well-placed partner for the campus. Andrew Tan, NEA’s CEO, said: “As part of our ongoing efforts to promote

046

energy-efficient practices, NEA is pleased to work with knowledge partners such as McKinsey through initiatives such as the Green Campus to disseminate best practices in industry processes that lead to more efficient use of energy and cost savings.”

NEA has been forging strategic partnerships with thought leaders to sustain Singapore’s efforts in energy efficiency as an initiative under E2PO. McKinsey is one of NEA’s strategic partners under the Energy Efficiency National Partnership (EENP) and it has been working with the NEA and the EDB to develop executive-level training programmes for EENP partners.

Oliver Tonby, Managing Partner of McKinsey Southeast Asia, said: “The establishment of the Green Campus as part of McKinsey Innovation Campus in Singapore underscores our commitment

to bring the best of McKinsey’s global experience to companies in Singapore and across Asia to help them address their toughest challenges.

“Our decision to locate these new capabilities in Singapore reflects the growing focus on innovation in this market, the commitment to energy efficiency and a drive for excellence.”

Experiential curricula By late morning, the Holcim staff have completed briefings and are getting stuck into coursework.

Representatives from various operational teams are assuming the roles of staff at case study firm Omco in order to explore a number of energy efficiency exercises across the facility. They have been tasked with cutting energy use by 30 per cent.

To simulate a real-world learning

INDUSTRY INNOVATION

environment, McKinsey Green Campus features distillation columns, fuel gas systems, flare systems, tank farms and furnaces – common fixtures in many industrial facilities.

Typical curricula at the campus covers a number of topics, from management systems such as performance monitoring to best-practice toolkits on technical systems involving the energy value chain. Critical ‘people systems’ such as communication, and influencing techniques that can make or break operational behaviour, also form an important component.

Coursework can be further tailored to the needs of staff from line managers to senior executives, and for people working in a large number of industries including oil refining, gas processing, petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, power generation, district cooling, waste treatment, metals processing

“the green campus has been specifically designed for the sole purpose of bringing cutting edge concepts and international expertise to train managers and change agents in energy efficiency” Dr Mads Lauritzen, Green Campus Global Leader

and large-scale food and beverage processing.

“The Green Campus has been specifically designed for the sole purpose of bringing cutting edge concepts and international expertise to train managers and change agents in energy efficiency,” said Dr Mads Lauritzen, Managing Partner in McKinsey’s Southeast Asian operations practice and Green Campus Global Leader.

“It is the first initiative of this kind for Singapore and a first for Asia. It’s about helping companies go green and lean.”

Enhancing initiatives Energy expenses are a significant driver for the cement industry. At Holcim, 40 per cent of the cost of cement production has been attributed to energy use.

To tackle rising prices, the firm aims to cut energy consumption by 10 per cent by 2015.

It has launched the Energy Activation Issue 4

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INDUSTRY INNOVATION

across Regional Network (EARN) programme, which aims to foster a ‘lean energy’ culture in the Holcim ASEAN Region.

measure for transparency create competitive advantage

eArn (energy Activation across regional network)

drive on-ground cultural change

best pratice sharing through regional communities of excellence

develop capabilities of both people and infrastructure

create academy and equip it to drive energy projects

EARN is a transformation initiative to build a lean energy culture and enhanced competency to achieve energy management excellence

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EARN, which began in 2012, covers 46 plants across Southeast Asia, exclusive of operations in the Philippines.

A sustainable transformation requires more than good technical systems and tools, however, and the programme also explores ways to enhance hard and soft capabilities at plants with the aim of forming energy efficiency communities of excellence.

Getting staff involved at the McKinsey Green Campus is an important step in improving the company’s energy performance.

Engineers Valya Serivalsatit, who works at a Holcim subsidiary in Thailand, and Kholid Mawardi, from Indonesia, are attending McKinsey Green Campus through the EARN programme.

They are responsible for taking a leadership role on energy efficiency and other corporate excellence initiatives at their respective facilities. While at the campus, they and their counterparts will hone their identification skills for many pieces of industrial production equipment.

During a walk-through exercise to learn more about plant performance gaps, the

“it is useful to learn more about the concepts and also hoW to find the gaps in performance” Kholid Mawardi, Holcim engineer from Indonesia

two share their feedback on the programme.

“The exercises are quite useful for helping us reflect on plant operations back home,” Serivalsatit said.

“The process of talking with people and interviewing during role play is key because the dialogue often reveals efficiency opportunities that might not otherwise be apparent.”

Mawardi agrees.

“It is useful to learn more about the concepts and also how to find the gaps in performance,” he said. “It would be ideal if, one day, we could have a model cement plant

in this kind of setting to learn from in order to get even more detailed [knowledge] in relation to our operations.”

The Holcim ASEAN Region team has identified five ‘pillars’ it believes will be fundamental to addressing EARN’s aims and support a systematic approach to improving energy efficiency.

The approach begins with a transparent measurement of energy consumption and best practices. The data collected will be analysed and used to identify ‘best in class’ areas and potential annual savings.

Aidan Lynam, Area Manager at Holcim Ltd, said: “This allows us to chart each plant’s progress and to keep our eye on the goal. Also, as this is a regional effort, each plant will be able to see how it compares with other plants in the region and draw inspiration from best practice.

“It is the cornerstone of the EARN programme and allows for effective quantification, prioritisation and comparison of energy opportunities across all plants. In essence, it is a strong catalyst for EARN.” Regional communities of excellence,

“the exercises help us reflect on plant operations back home” Valya Serivalsatit, Holcim engineer in Thailand

such as the ones in Thailand and Indonesia that Serivalsatit and Mawardi respectively champion, have been established to promote the sharing of best practice for each pillar. This is more than a management driven programme for Holcim, so the next phase will pave the way for the construction of model plants, the creation of academies, and for staff to be equipped with the expertise needed to drive energy projects.

Developing people capabilities and investing in the necessary infrastructure are crucial aspects of the programme. In many respects, involvement with the McKinsey Green Campus will pave the way for further developments.

Learning modules have been created to build employees’ capabilities and raise their accreditation level from ‘green practitioner’ to ‘green architect.’

A model plant will be established to facilitate energy-efficiency learning in an authentic environment.

The EARN programme is still in its infancy, but participants are already reaping rewards. Its results have motivated employees in the region and enhanced their ‘can do’ attitude – just the start of an exciting journey towards energy management and boosting competitiveness in the industry.

By the end of the first day’s workshops, Holcim staff have gained a rigorous introduction to quantifying energy load curve opportunities, evaluating projects, tracking KPIs with a view to saving energy and tailoring technical modules to individual plant needs.

They have also had a crash course on communication and conflict management.

With an equally packed second day to come, the participants’ visit is equipping them to meet energy challenges of the future.

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business on the brink

New research shows delaying the measurement and management of natural capital carries a significant business risk for companies’ competitive advantage. Dr Dorothy Maxwell, Director of TEEB for Business Coalition, shares the organisation’s latest findings

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usInesses rely On natural capital – resources and ecosystems that provide critical provisioning services, such as water and food, and regulatory services including climate regulation, water purification and flood management. Sixty per cent of the world’s ecosystem services have been degraded over the past 50 years and we are now committed to a four-degree global temperature rise and the societal implications that brings.

For businesses to be viable in the long term, the natural capital upon which they depend needs to be maintained, yet

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Contributors Dr Dorothy Maxwell and Charlotte Masiello-Riome the world is currently experiencing an unprecedented depletion of natural capital.

Value of natural systems largely invisible The invisibility of corporate externalities is a root cause of many errors of judgement across economics, ecology and governance.

The main reason for this is the economic

invisibility of most of nature’s services and their resulting exclusion from most policy and business decision making: they simply aren’t accounted for. Natural Capital Management (NCM) is about understanding these environmental externalities and including them in business decision making.

Business externalities are increasingly being internalised as costs, such as greenhouse gas emissions, waste generation and resource use, depending on which countries a company or its supply chain operates in.

“overall, sustainability needs to be communicated as a factor of improvement in everyday life, building on people’s values and aspirations” The evidence base and business engagement has been growing for some time.

fIGure 1 greenhouse gases natural resources

water abstraction vocs

Air pollution

general waste

heavy metals

450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000

m

et a

ls

an ind d us m tr in ia in l g fo od pr od uc er s co an ns m tru at ct er io ia n ls

ct

ric

ity

0

oi l pr an od d uc ga er s s

Barriers to change Current barriers to change for business regarding NCM are both at the macro-

The larger context of business impacts How great is the risk to business? To provide greater context to the Organisational Change for Natural Capital Management findings, Figure 1, based on a 2010 study by the UN Principles for Responsible Investment (UNPRI), illustrates the environmental costs of the top 3,000 listed companies in 2008.

Economically these companies generated

US$21 trillion per year. The global environmental externality costs of this economic activity were estimated at US$ 2.15 trillion/year with over 60 per cent coming from the energy, extractive, food and construction sectors. In addition, the wider evidence base shows sectors such as transport, tourism, timber and some ‘fast moving’ consumer goods, such as clothing and electronics, being among the most significant environmental impact contributors when embodied impacts across the supply chain are included.

ele

Pioneers grasp the risk to business Among this small group of pioneering companies recognising the growing business case for NCM, there is a shift to building it deeply into their business within the time horizon of the next three years. By doing so, there is the view that they will be much better positioned than other companies to manage and thrive in a resource-constrained world that is already here and will hit business hard in three to five years.

The study identifies that delaying the measurement and management of natural capital carries a significant business risk for companies on availability of key raw materials and maintaining competitive advantage. In particular climate regulation, renewable energy and the availability of freshwater, fibre and food were identified as the most important natural capital risks in the near term.

level, such as the lack of government regulation and customer demand, and within organisations. In particular, internal challenges include establishing the relevance of NCM and a lack of harmonised methods to measure, prioritise and integrate natural capital into business decision-making.

NCM is a business innovation that changes business processes, practices, systems and strategies, therefore, a major driver of organisational change. This is something many mainstream businesses hesitate to embrace, but will nonetheless grapple with in the coming years.

Pavan Sukhdev, Chair of the Advisory Board of TEEB for Business Coalition says: “This study identifies the absence of measurement of natural capital externalities as the most significant barrier in the road from recognition through evaluation to adoption and leadership in natural capital management. It lays the grounds for identifying the largest externalities of business as a first step towards their recognition and management.”

Environmental external cost (US$million)

Understanding business motivations To uncover deeper understanding of business motivations towards NCM, a new report called the Organisational Change for Natural Capital Management: Strategy and Implementation was commissioned by the TEEB for Business Coalition to explore a model for organisational change. Its goal was to assess business practices at leading companies that were implementing behavioural and organisational change for natural capital management.

The study is based on data collected by Innovastat from 26 pioneering companies – 60 per cent of which have revenues in excess of US$10 billion – across nine industry sectors. It provides real-life intelligence from these businesses that supports the growing business case for managing natural capital.

Source: UNPRI

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INDUSTRY INNOVATION

Growing concern for business models There is a growing concern from business that existing business models are not equipped to measure these real costs and a shift to internalise sustainability in economic terms in business models is underway. The intention is that, by understanding the real costs and benefits of environmental and social impacts from business activities, these become material and enable more informed decision making in terms of business risks and opportunities.

Environmental and social externalities valuation provides the method for this and can be applied in several ways by business stakeholders. It will enable measurement of the full costs and benefits of organisations’ environmental and social impacts, and those across supply chains, to inform better management decisions. It can be incorporated in corporate reporting to enable full disclosure and clarity on the materiality of environmental and social impacts to the business, especially at board level.

Accountants in particular play a strong role in incorporating natural and social capital accounting into mainstream business reporting, such as balance sheets and

diligence when assessing client portfolios and ultimately investment decisions.

Pension funds and insurers in particular have been seeking more corporate disclosure for GHG emissions, water use and biodiversity for risk management reasons.

Overall, these applications are a major lever for market transformation on sustainability.

Creating a net positive impact By internalising the full costs and benefits of environmental and social impacts, the real costs and values can be incorporated in business decision making. This can drive business having a ‘net positive impact’ as distinct from the ‘doing less badly’ mode that is the status quo. This changes the business case over time as markets start to drive sustainability improvement, as distinct from driving their degradation which is the present case. Ultimately, this will drive business behaviour change.

profit & and loss statements. For investors, it can more comprehensively inform Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria to enable better due

The TEEB for Business Coalition is a global, multi-stakeholder platform to support development and uptake of harmonised, practical methods to value environmental and social externalities for use in business decision making. Launched in Singapore on 6 November 2012, the TEEB for Business Coalition is the business application of G8 and UNEP supported TEEB Programme. The Coalition is made up of global leaders on the theory and practice of natural capital valuation from business, policy, practitioners and NGOs. For more information, visit teebforbusiness.org

fIGure 3: fruIt juIce supply chaIn Impacts Illustration of the fruit juice supply chain, detailing a common consumer product’s environmental impacts. Other industries, such as mining or palm oil production, have supply chains of even greater complexity, with more significant environmental impacts fruit growing

Water use through a fruit juice supply chain total waste consumption = 3,500,000m3

processing 2%

88%

052

shipping logistics 0%

bottling 3%

packaging supply chain

7%

distribution 0%

use by consumer 0%

reycling and disposal 0%

the real cost of your gear As Figure 2 shows, Puma’s Environmental Profit and Loss (EP&L) report reveals that its total sales of €2,706 million in 2010 equated to a total environmental impact of €145 million, representing 18 per cent of sales fIGure 2 Water use

GHGs

Land use

Air pollution

Waste

Total

€ million

€ million

€ million

€ million

€ million

€ million

33%

32%

26%

7%

2%

100%

Total

47

47

37

11

3

145

100%

Puma operations

<1

7

<1

1

<1

8

6%

Tier 1

1

9

<1

1

2

13

9%

Tier 2

4

7

<1

2

1

14

10%

Tier 3

17

7

<1

3

<1

27

19%

Tier 4

25

17

37

4

<1

83

57%

EMEA

4

8

1

1

<1

14

10%

Americas

2

10

20

3

<1

35

24%

Asia/Pacific

41

29

16

7

3

96

66%

Footwear

25

28

34

7

2

96

66%

Apparel

18

14

3

3

1

39

27%

4

5

<1

1

<1

10

7%

Accessories

% of total

Source: Puma

...and greenhouse gases total ghg emissions = 22,000tco2e packaging supply chain distribution

bottling

fruit growing shipping logistics

use by consumer

6%

4%

processing 1% 16%

14%

reycling and disposal 1%

24% 34%

Issue 4

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TECHABILITY

tWelve technologies to curb carbon emissions These promising technological inventions could make a real impact on greenhouse gas emissions 1 Offshore wind power The offshore wind market has tremendous potential for growth.

Annual investments are expected to increase from US$3.7 billion in 2011 to US$13.6 billion in 2020.8 Although the UK and Germany currently dominate the market, Asia is also starting to embrace offshore renewables, and last October Nanyang Technological University (NTU) hosted the Offshore Renewable Energy Conference 2012.

With its established oil and gas industry, Singapore is in prime position to develop offshore renewables, whose installation techniques and infrastructures bear many similarities to those developed in Europe for offshore wind power.9 2 SuperGrid The European Union is exploring the possibility of connecting various member states with a high-voltage direct current power grid. Called SuperGrid, it will distribute electricity and liquid hydrogen simultaneously via long-distance electric power lines, which will become superconductive as the hydrogen acts as a cryogenic coolant. The SuperGrid would lower the cost of power in all participating countries, which could include nations in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and North Africa. Designed to deliver power from large renewable

energy clusters to existing grids at centres of consumption, it would provide the infrastructure for a single electricity market.3,6

3 Second-generation bioenergy Most ‘first generation’ biofuels currently on the market are produced from food crops such as grains, sugar beet and oil seeds.

But non-edible, fibrous parts of many food crops contain large reservoirs of energy that provide real potential for conversion into biofuels. Called lignocellulosic biomass, these sources could hold the key to supplying society’s basic needs for sustainable production of liquid transportation fuels without adversely affecting food supplies or worsening environmental problems.14-17

4 Electrified powertrains Powertrain technology is concerned with the components that generate power and deliver it to the road surface.

Since advanced composite materials greatly reduce a car’s weight and the power needed to propel it, electric powertrains become much smaller, hence economically viable.

While available models such as the Chevrolet Volt and the Nissan Leaf feature electrified powertrains, pushing the boundaries of steel vehicles, BMW, Volkswagen and Audi are soon to launch electrified cars with advanced composite bodies, with Daimler-Chrysler and others hot on their heels.

It is thought such vehicles have the potential to reduce US vehicle fuel consumption by 95 per cent by 2050.4

References Dynamics of the Industrial Energy Efficiency Market: A Strategic Perspective, Frost & Sullivan Asia Pacific, Ravi Krishnaswamy, Vice President, Energy & Power Systems Practice, February 2013 2 ewea.org/blog/2013/01/ forecasting-the-future-at-ewea-2013 3 smartwind.co.uk/supergrid.aspx 4 Rocky Mountain Institute 5 Centre for Alternative Technology 6 friendsofthesupergrid.eu 7 Affordable, clean, secure energy solutions for 2050, Energy Technologies Institute, 2011 8 European Wind Energy Association 9 A Win-Wind Situation: Opportunities in the European Offshore Wind Industry, IE Insights, Vol. 4, October 2012 10 bosch.com/en/com/innovation/ 1

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Carbon dioxide uptake by forests, biomass plantations and degraded mine lands that are restored

Dispersed CO2

5 Carbon fibre composite Heavy cars take more energy to move.

Making cars lighter is the single most effective way of dramatically and immediately improving their fuel efficiency, regardless of vehicle type, size or fuel. Carbon fibre composite is made from very thin filaments of carbon atoms which have been bound with plastic polymer resin by heat, pressure or in a vacuum to form a strong, lightweight material. The more densely this fibre is woven, the stronger the resultant material, or composite, will be.13

8 Carbon capture and storage Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-fuel power stations and industry.

CCS involves capturing carbon dioxide and storing it through a variety of means to prevent it from reaching the atmosphere.

Separation and collection of CO2 reached a new milestone when researchers in the US were able to capture it at purity of 99.5 per cent for a successful 200-hour test from the burning of sub-bituminous and lignite coals, commonly used in power plants. It was a major step towards commercialisation of the technology.12

Carbon-based products Capture & separation Pond with bacteria

CO2

Soil amendments

Pipelines Coal bed methane formations Geological formations

Depleted oil or gas reservoirs

Deep aquifer

6 Concentrated solar power Concentrated solar power (CSP) makes use of a system of mirrors or parabolic lenses to focus sunlight on a central, oil-filled tube. Trapped heat is then sent through a system to boil water and produce steam which drives a turbine, generating electricity. Abu Dhabi recently opened Shams 1, the world’s largest CSP plant covering 2.5 km2, capable of generating 100mW to power 20,000 homes.

9 Hydrogen and fuel cells Vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cells could offer a compelling alternative to fully electrified cars if such technology could be supported by a robust, affordable and widely

distributed hydrogen-fuelling infrastructure, according to the US based Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI). Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) have the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) fuel cells used in cars, also called Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cells, use hydrogen fuel and oxygen from the air to produce electricity. If the fuel cells are stacked, they provide enough energy to power a vehicle.

The advantage of hydrogen cells over conventional batteries is their lower weight combined with greater energy capacity, which potentially makes them of great benefit to larger, heavier vehicles requiring a substantial amount of power.4,5

7 Photovoltaic cells Photovoltaic (PV) panels, also known as solar electric panels, convert sunlight directly into electricity. Costs have plummeted recently, and solar offers significant long term economic benefits. Stanford scientists recently developed a solar-capturing device based on photon-enhanced thermionic emissions (PETE) which are 100 times more efficient than currently available technologies.

This technology utilises a semiconductor to produce electricity by harnessing full spectrum of light and could make solar plants more efficient.

10 Hydroelectricity All streams and rivers flow downhill.

Hydropower systems harness this potential energy, converting it into kinetic energy via a turbine that drives an electricity generator.

The more water there is, and the greater the height from which it falls, the greater the amount of electricity generated. Small, or micro-hydroelectricity, systems can produce enough electricity for lighting and electrical appliances in an average home.5

11 Gasification One significant Clean Coal Technology avoids burning the fuel altogether.

Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) systems cause steam and hot, pressurised air to be combined with coal, triggering a reaction that forces its carbon molecules apart. The resulting gas, a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen, is then burned in a gas turbine to generate electricity and steam. Gasification is one of a number of processes dubbed ‘waste-to-energy’.

12 Graphene supercapacitators One of the major drawbacks for technology such as electric vehicles is storing the energy needed to power them. In 2002, Russian scientists won the Nobel Prize for Physics for discovering graphene, a material made of pure carbon. Its hexagonal structure is similar to that of graphite but in a sheet that is just one atom thick. More recently, two UCLA researchers18 discovered the substance could be used as an efficient device that functions in a similar way to a battery19.

The breakthrough could be a game changer as it cuts charging time dramatically, stores energy successfully and does so while being based entirely on organic matter.

While the technology is still in its infancy, it could potentially revolutionise the way we power any number of items, from the iPhone to the electric car.

insidebosch/powertrains_of_tomorrow/electrical_powertrains_of_tomorrow/electrical_powertrains_of_tomorrow.html 11 fueleconomy.gov/feg/fuelcell.shtml 12 www.lifesciencesworld.com/news/view/225667 composite.about.com/od/aboutcarbon/a/What-Is-Carbon-Fiber.html 14 greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/climate-change/solutions/bioenergy 15 Sustainable Production of Second-Generation biofuels – Potential and Perspectives in Major Economies and Developing Countries, International Energy Agency, February 2010 16 biocore-europe.org/page.php?optim=what-is-lignocellulosic-biomass 17 bioenergyconsult.com/what-islignocellulosic-biomass 18 www.fastcodesign.com/1671917/watch-2-scientists-accidentally-discover-a-world-changing-super-material?partner=newsletter 19 www.photonics.com/Article.aspx?AID=50784 13

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TECHABILITY

neW york’s carbon emissions made visible Street-level view of 10-metre spheres of carbon dioxide emerging once every 0.58 seconds

I

ssues such as clImate change are often difficult for people to understand because causes of the problem, such as carbon dioxide emissions, aren’t visible to the naked eye. As a result, motivating them to act can be difficult.

Carbon Visuals created a video with support from Environmental Defense Fund to help make emissions more tangible.

Using New York City as a case study, it tracks an entire year’s worth of emissions to demonstrate exactly how much CO2 was produced. The captivating result is an engaging tool to help educate stakeholders on the need for emissions cuts. Scan the QR code on the right with your smartphone to check it out.

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A year’s carbon dioxide emissions from New York City: 54,349,650 one-metric-ton spheres

innovative real-time Weather monitoring system launched t

he meteOrOlOGIcal Services Singapore (MSS) has embarked on a project to develop a network of real-time automated weather stations (AWSs) to provide accessible data in real time all over the city-state.

Called the AWS Network, it comprises 64 automated weather stations, located across the island. All stations have sensors that measure rainfall and 22 stations are equipped with additional sensors that measure wind, humidity, temperature and atmospheric pressure. Sensors to measure incoming infrared radiation are installed at five stations; two others measure total ultraviolet radiation.

MSS’ Meteorological Station at Changi has a range of special sensors that measure the Ultraviolet (UV) Index, height of base of cloud, visibility, soil temperature at various depths and an evaporation sensor to measure the rate of evaporation. All the data are transmitted wirelessly to MSS’ Data Centre at Changi Airport.

An integral part of the AWS Network is the data visualisation or graphical-user interface software that enables viewing of

both current and past weather information in various graphical and text formats. The AWS Network can emit audible alerts whenever a meteorological parameter, such as wind speed within a 10-minute period or the amount of rainfall in an hour, exceeds a predetermined threshold.

The real-time weather observation data from the AWS Network and the accompanying visualisation or graphical user-interface is an important addition to support and enhance the operations at

MSS. The AWS Network provides weather forecasters and research scientists with high data availability and ease of access to continuous high-resolution data for monitoring changes in current weather patterns as well as long term climatic trends.

With wireless telecommunications technology, the AWS Network provides convenient access to real-time weather data over all sectors in Singapore. Near realtime rain, temperature, humidity and wind data have been made available on NEA’s MyEnv iPhone app and on Weather@SG. Accessible at http://weather.nea.gov.sg/ ForecastToday.aspx, the website offers realtime weather information forecasts.

MSS will be launching a website for the AWS Network. It is being designed with the general public in mind, and it is hoped the improved accessibility and data resolution from the AWS Network will enable the general public to better prepare for weather changes.

The data from the AWS Network will form an integral part of NEA’s Smart Environment System.

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ENGAGEMENT

challenging decisions

What are the best ways to shift business decision making? Speaking at a recent Professional Sharing Series event hosted by NEA’s Singapore Environment Institute, Professor Steve Elliot from the University of Sydney shared engagement approaches between government and business to tackle climate change

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Oth GOvernments and businesses recognise the importance of a collaborative process involving policy makers, business leaders and citizens to tackle pressing challenges such as climate change.

As the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) outlines, also important are creating fundamental shifts towards value placed on sustainable growth, and to enable policies and tax regimes that incentivise businesses to make investment and operational decisions that look beyond the bottom line. But what are the challenges that lie ahead – and what role can firms really play?

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First, they can work towards solving the problems that are causing environmental deterioration. Second, they can work towards enabling solutions as they have resources that are beyond the reach of many governments. They have the capability to apply those resources to pressing problems, and all they need is the motivation and incentives to do so.

Changing business a challenge in itself A large part of motivating business as a force for change involves business transformation, and change is seldom something that people like to do. As American author Mark Twain put it, “I’m all for progress, but it’s change I

don’t like.” Painting lucid goals that people can aspire to can help motivate them to change, but change for its own sake is rarely an effective approach.

As a recent McKinsey survey has revealed, only about 30 to 40 per cent of organisations succeeded or partly succeeded in achieving their goals. Other studies also indicate that the gap between expectations of significant change and the capabilities to manage that change has tripled since 2008.

Periodically, forces such as globalisation and the IT revolution have succeeded in reshaping the business world. In the longer term, complex issues such as climate change and its impacts are likely to rival both.

ENGAGEMENT

“any conversation should be focused on the problems and challenges being experienced in the organisation and the form in Which they can be addressed” acted to support the issues being embraced by their staff.

What started to take shape was a green IT experiment that evolved organically in the subsidiary. It was triggered with no policy or corporate headquarter directives, merely the interest of their staff and local management to see what could be possible. What succeeded as a local initiative eventually launched worldwide to the corporation’s operations in 50 countries. The company’s initiative involved eight progressive steps:

It is an era that is already evolving quite quickly. Business thought-leaders such as Michael Porter and Peter Bakker, president of the WBCSD, believe that a revolution in capitalism is needed to effectively meet such challenges. But present circumstances are still difficult to influence inside businesses.

Broadening business horizons There’s no point in going to an organisation and telling them what you think they should do. Any conversation should be focused on the problems and challenges being experienced within it, and in what form they can be addressed.

Using this approach, a major IT company explored how environmental sustainability could be important to its business. The company, based in Australia, was a subsidiary of a larger business with US$15 billion in revenues, with more than 50,000 staff in 50 countries. Staff had raised the importance of climate change and energy efficiency to management, and management

Awareness: Identifying issues and their potential relevance Investigation: Analysing problems, scope, relevance and impact Determination: Identifying drivers, projects and business cases Action: Projects to cut energy use, prevent pollution and develop capabilities; monitoring and assessment Evaluation: Determining organisation-wide metrics and processes measuring actual contributions Proliferation: Diffusion of solutions for internal energy and pollution reduction; environmental sustainability reporting Integration: Innovative organisation-wide environmental sustainability solutions; applying new ICT and environmental management systems Opportunity: Environmental sustainability strategies with existing and new clients In just one example from the case study company led by staff, installation of a US$428 device lead to a reduction in annual energy costs of US$90,000. Competition between branches grew and successes snowballed in the company, with many initiatives being launched. Support from management grew with each success. While some of the projects eventually required

budgets so they could be implemented, the environmental sustainability manager reported that, for the funds expended, cost benefits of two to three times were expected.

Engagement and a competitive spirit lead to reinforcement of the activities by creating a structure around it. In the IT company example, the CIO oversaw four divisions – IT operations, business excellence, environmental sustainability and strategic initiatives, with managers for each respective area. To integrate these processes and maximise organisational benefits, each of the four managers only received performance bonuses if all had reached their targets.

With the massive improvements to core business and cost savings, soon the efforts of the subsidiary came both on the radar of the parent company, as well as clients – both new and potential. The company’s culture had been transformed.

Key lessons in business transformation Companies’ motivations are diverse: competitive opportunities and threats, corporate social responsibility, regulatory compliance, social entrepreneurship, stakeholder judgement and numerous other factors come into play.

The important thing to stress in terms of desired outcome is that stopping the degradation of our environment and innovation is the means of achieving that environmental outcome. But a well planned business innovation can produce multiple benefits. For example, an innovation to cut wastage and streamline business processes may achieve both cost and environmental savings, and both can be important to improving core business.

Global surveys of chief executives often identify environmental issues of important concern. But uncertainties about environmental sustainability and how to respond can significantly inhibit action.

Outside a company, seeing other examples of exemplary case studies of action can be used to demonstrate what is achievable.

Inside a company, engaging staff is critical.

Working with pioneers can be helpful to get action started, but they will require assistance and, in some cases, incentives.

Once some small initiatives are underway, they can often be self-funding with nearterm paybacks – think of the reduction in power, water and waste, for example.

But it is important to realise that lasting benefits will need to affect the core business processes and be supported by executives.

Efforts at the margins will not necessarily produce big results in the long term, nor justify a ‘sustainable’ enterprise. Senior Issue 4

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ENGAGEMENT

management needs to help set directions, build on successes, establish targets and continually engage and empower staff.

Merely taking a top-down approach is not effective and, in many cases, staff have a better handle on real problems and solutions.

To reinforce organisational culture and behaviour change, performance reviews, rewards and incentives may need to be re-examined. In the same vein, competition between business units or locations can be used to help motivate engagement and productivity improvement. Benchmarking across units, setting targets using business relevant metrics – think: cost savings, amount of energy saved – and reporting progress can help reinforce this culturally.

Implications for policy planning With this business climate in mind, from the policy point of view it is important to

“What is important is to acknoWledge and publicise environmental challenges, much in the Way that singapore’s national climate change strategy has done, to make everyone aWare” note that command-and-control regulation targeted at specific outcomes can stymie support for wider achievement of a sustainable economy. Regulation can, too often, focus on what’s easy to monitor, not necessarily what’s important to fix. Overregulation often causes desired outcomes to be overlooked completely.

Such command-and-control policy can become too specific and, by doing so, become less effective for particular companies and

reach, especially when motivated by market reasons. It can also achieve outcomes in a short period of time that governments with limited budgets and conflicting priorities might not be able to do.

Q&a With prof steve elliot In your experience, what is the real role of business as both the cause of and solution to environmental issues such as climate change?

It is generally accepted that business can serve as a cause in terms of its current practices involving pollution and degradation of our environment. But business can address problems by changing its practices and by applying its resources with multi-national

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What aspect of corporate culture do senior executives find most difficult to change?

It depends on the corporate culture and organisation.

Operational cultures can generally be changed more easily, as processes and practices often change quickly. On the other hand, belief systems such as objectives of high service or corporate social responsibility are more difficult to challenge because people change their belief systems less frequently and doing so takes more effort.

What model of corporate transformation is most successful?

The key lesson would be that it has to be specific to the organisation. You need a driver of change and the notion of progress towards a particular objective that makes sense and is achievable in the organisational context. In some situations, though, when the organisation is

industries. In a rapidly changing environment, prescriptive regulation is a brake on business.

It is important to acknowledge and publicise environmental challenges, as Singapore’s National Climate Change Strategy has done, to make everyone aware.

Policymakers should form partnerships with firms to implement change practices and develop new solutions and capabilities by, for example, increasing awareness, assisting in change management, publicising exemplary

in trouble due to a market failure or embarrassment, for example, there will be greater acceptance among staff and stakeholders that change is necessary.

How cognisant, in your view, are most business leaders to environmental issues?

Business leaders are like people everywhere – some issues are felt more strongly than others.

Recent surveys carried out by IBM and McKinsey demonstrate that leading organisations seem to have a high level of acceptance of environmental issues. Smaller organisations may have different views depending on the local market conditions.

Has the economic crisis in recent years has pushed sustainability down the corporate agenda?

You’d think that if companies were aiming to ensure their businesses survived in the wake of the economic crisis that they might place a lower priority on what they may see to be non-essential items. That hasn’t necessarily happened, and in 2009 the World Economic Forum identified that environmental issues were still in the top list of concerns even at the height of the economic crisis.

If organisations see the necessity

to change, it means they need to change their operations in some way. If they’ve been alerted to environmental problems, and there are concerns by customers or stakeholders, they’re open to that change.

For firms that are environmental leaders, do some of those triggers motivate them?

Companies are lead by individuals, and individuals have views that are open to social, environmental or other characteristics. Some leaders have it and others don’t. Sir Richard Branson and others are quite vocal, and even leading companies such as Unilever can can be unexpectedly active and concerned about their corporate social responsibilities.

Have leading companies been able to drive long-term business value by embracing a sustainability agenda or are they still finding their feet?

Let me give you an example: when the notion of e-business was first introduced, many companies dabbled but said: ‘Moving our business online won’t work in our industry.’ Based on their experiences, by and large, they were right. It didn’t work,

companies in each sector and sharing best practice.

Beyond partnering with business, policymakers should also reach out across different agencies and ministries to break down silos and share public-sector experiences, enabling government to become an active part of the solution.

Conclusion With growing global challenges such as climate change, building effective environmental business transformation enabled by sound policy has never been more crucial. A winning formula would be to address climate change challenges by cutting negative environmental impact while cutting costs and improving productivity. Looking towards the long term with this approach, capabilities for mitigation and adaptation in business and society can be realised.

not because it couldn’t work but because they didn’t put enough effort or investment into it.

I think sustainability may be a similar issue. Token gestures such as turning off lights will only make a marginal difference, so companies won’t take it seriously. It really depends on the seriousness of the approach, as positive impacts won’t be delivered by a marginal case but by the business committing the effort and investments necessary to make sustainability an integral part of their core business. Only then will benefits to both the business and the environment start to become significant.

Is the creation of positions such as that of chief sustainability officer (CSO) a useful way to integrate environmental concerns into business?

It depends on the circumstances.

If a company is serious about integrating sustainability and their core business it can be a useful approach. A CSO can be useful if they are responsible for the organisation’s transformation and for maintaining the company’s efforts; however, if they don’t have organisation-wide responsibilities in an area of their employer’s core business but

only operate within a separate sustainability department, the most likely outcome is that their efforts will remain a marginal activity.

In Singapore, how can business, government and society work together to tackle climate change more effectively?

All parties can realise that working together is part of their main activities because none of them can do it alone. The most important thing done so far is the National Climate Change Strategy 2012. It is an exemplary approach to the issues that shows how a country can acknowledge and respond to the potential impacts of climate change. In my experience, there has been too much politicisation of the issue overseas that makes it difficult to get consensus on issues.

How will governments and businesses cope with the effects of climate change?

When individuals within governments and businesses realise that change is no longer a political perspective or position, but a real and immediate issue that they need to deal with for the immediate viability of their future organisation, then they will

really get involved.

How can issues like climate change be better communicated with a view to gaining stakeholder buy-in?

The important thing is at all levels to think clearly about what, exactly, the issues are. In many cases in which environmental sustainability has been politicised, the vast majority of scientific evidence has been discounted.

While it is difficult to predict the future, if experts agree that the future will be worse that the present because of our current behaviour, prudent management, leadership and governance at organisation, industry and national level is needed to effect behavioural change. Leaders must also monitor and prepare for unavoidable challenges resulting from our past behaviour. Business, government and society all need to be prepared for the challenges to come and to be aware of how these challenges will affect them.

Just as it is important that business leaders focus on applying sustainability principles to the core parts of their business rather than focusing on the margins, society needs to focus on the main issues.

In societal terms, core issues will include ensuring the security of food and water resources but also

natural resources, such as areas deemed to be of outstanding beauty or designated UNESCO World Heritage Sites. An example is Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, the largest coral reef in the world. In spite of being carefully protected from localised pollution by regulation, most scientists believe that coral reefs all over the world will deteriorate to the point of extinction in coming decades due to rising sea waters, increased temperatures and acidification of the ocean. People may not understand the scientific links between greenhouse gas emissions and increased acidification of the oceans, but if they are made aware that current behaviour results in the destruction of iconic natural resources, many will willingly accept the necessity to change.

Stakeholders at individual and organisational levels can become more actively engaged through compelling awareness campaigns to protect iconic natural resources.

In this way, people might be more easily persuaded to turn off the lights whenever they leave a room. Conversely, once they have accepted the necessity for change, doing so will just become an accepted part of their changed behaviour.

ISSUE 4

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BEHAVIOURAL INSIGHTS

conflict of interest

Owners and tenants often have clashing agendas when it comes to saving money – and energy. Can they be united under a common goal of saving emissions?

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hen landlOrds Invest in new properties they rarely splash out on top-of-the range appliances.

But budget white goods are rarely the most efficient, leaving tenants to foot increased running costs for energyhungry washing machines, refrigerators and air-conditioning units.

In the absence of financial or legal incentives to change their behaviour, landlords will continue to invest in cheaper, less efficient equipment. They may also be less inclined to make the structural changes to buildings necessary for cutting

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Contributor Shiva Susarla is a research Associate at the energy research institute, part of the national university of singapore consumption, such as installing double glazing or insulation.

Tenants whose rent includes gas and/or electricity, or whose contracts allow them to pay fixed bills regardless of usage, are isolated from energy price signals – changes in tariffs that might alert them to decreased

availability or increased taxes, for example, thereby removing any financial incentive to conserve resources.

Similarly, arrangements in which tenants divide energy bills equally, individual usage notwithstanding, can encourage a mindset in which individuals maximise their consumption and are effectively subsidised by their housemates or neighbours.

The term ‘principal-agent problems,’ used within this article, refers to the conflicting goals of landlords and tenants that lead to under-investment in energy-efficient appliances or excess energy usage.

A disincentive Households are responsible for about 17 per cent of Singapore’s electricity consumption.

While this is a smaller proportion than those seen in larger countries such as the US or UK it still has a significant impact.

Moreover, given Singapore’s large migrant population and the high incidence of house renting, subletting and multi-tenant sharing, it is possible that landlords’ and tenants’ failure to curb their energy consumption is pervasive and contributes to significant wastage of energy.

In theory, therefore, addressing their conflicting agendas may result in substantial savings for tenants and also help meet national targets for energy efficiency. To understand exactly how much energy can be saved by addressing them and whether it is cost-effective to do so it is, however, important to first estimate how much energy is lost due to these problems and understand how this can be addressed, if at all.

Quantifying the extent of the problem is somewhat tricky as it requires identifying households in which it occurs and the specific ways in which energy is wasted.

Clearly, any methodology developed to measure the impact of landlords’ and tenants’ conflicts of interest can only be, at best, an estimate.

A number of studies in the past have broadly focused on identifying and defining the existence of such problems in the residential sector without measuring empirically reduced energy efficiency. Some recent studies, however, have attempted to develop methodologies and frameworks with the specific objective of estimating the extent and impact of the issue.

In 2006, Murtishaw and Sathaye estimated the number of households in the US affected by principal-agent problems.

During their research, part of a larger study commissioned by the International Energy Agency (IEA), they developed a methodology that classified households as affected either by ‘usage,’ in situations where tenants paid fixed energy bills or ‘efficiency,’ when landlords chose appliances and tenants paid energy bills based on usage.

The study considered four end uses of energy in households – refrigerators, space heating, water heating and lighting, which, together, account for about 73 per cent of all residential energy consumption in the US. They then applied the methodology to assess how end use was affected.

Data from the American Housing Survey, the US Census Bureau and the Residential Energy Consumption Survey were used in the analysis. The study estimated that

refrigeration in about 29 per cent of all US households was affected by principalagent problems. Similarly, lighting, space heating and water heating were estimated to be affected in 5 per cent, 53 per cent and 69 per cent of households respectively.

Furthermore, by addressing the causes of energy wastage through refrigeration alone, the study estimated that annual savings of 48 million kWh of energy could be made over the refrigerators’ lifetimes. At a retail energy price of about US$0.1/ kWh (US$ 10 cents), the dollar value of such savings is about US$4.8 million.

“in singapore, the dominance of apartments makes isolating efficiency initiatives in individual households more complicated, particularly if implementing such measures involves making structural changes to the buildings concerned” The costs involved in addressing these problems were not covered by the study.

It concluded that landlords’ continued reluctance to implement energy-saving measures when investing in new properties could be addressed by information initiatives such as labelling. It does not, however, consider such schemes to be feasible ways of addressing their reluctance to take such measures in their existing capital stock of energy appliances.

Empirical evidence of principal-agent problems in the residential sector was provided by Davis (2010), who suggested that tenant-occupied homes are less likely to have energy-efficient appliances than those inhabited by owners, and Levinson and Neimann, who found that tenants who paid fixed energy bills used more heating than those charged according to usage.

In a 2012 study, Gillingham et al provided

further empirical evidence of the magnitude of principal-agent problems, this time in California’s residential sector. The study established that people who paid for their homes’ heating based on usage were 16 per cent more likely to turn it down at night, suggesting they were mindful of the size of their energy bills. It also found that owneroccupiers were 20 per cent more likely to insulate the ceiling and attic and 13 per cent more likely to insulate the walls, indicating that in tenant-occupied residences more energy is consumed due to less efficient insulation.

The study also estimated avoided annual carbon emissions of about 120,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) if the principal-agent problems in heating and insulation were completely addressed.

Given the relatively small quantity of the avoided emissions relative to the total household emissions of 28 million metric tons of CO2, the study concluded that policy interventions would be beneficial only if they were low-cost and easy to implement. For example, it suggests mandatory insulation quality disclosure requirements for landlords as a possible cost-effective approach.

It recommends that, if the focus is on emissions reduction, tackling tenants’ energy wastage and landlords’ inaction can only be a small part of a larger climate change programme.

As such, some of the methodologies discussed above could be useful to estimate the magnitude of principal-agent problems in Singapore and to assess whether policy intervention could be beneficial.

A key challenge is the availability of data on housing and residential energy consumption, both key inputs to the methodologies. Also, it is important to note that the household energy usage patterns and mix in Singapore could be significantly different from those in the US and more difficult to measure. For example, one would assume that independent, landed properties represent a larger percentage of the total housing stock in the US than here, making it easier to measure and monitor efficiency measures such as building insulation in individual homes. In Singapore, the dominance of apartments makes isolating efficiency initiatives in discrete households more complicated, particularly if implementing such measures involves making structural changes to the buildings concerned.

Given these challenges, a set of trial experiments in which patterns of energy usage and appliance energy efficiency are monitored in two or more types of household could be useful in determining the extent of principal-agent problems in Singapore.

ISSUE 4

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BEHAVIOURAL INSIGHTS

devil’s in the detail

Behavioural economists reveal how fuel economy labelling can influence purchasing choices to positive effect

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n 1961, the economist George J Stigler published his seminal work on how information affects decisionmaking. Since then, his research has steadily gained traction, entering mainstream economic thought and providing an insight into the impact of information provision and acquisition on consumer behaviour.

Policymakers have begun to realise the importance of providing clear, accurate information as a means of influencing consumer decisions.

The low take-up of energy efficiency technology has been linked to a lack of data on product labels.

Consumers’ desire to buy power-hungry appliances may seem irrational but could in fact be due to a lack of information about products’ relative energy efficiency.

Correcting misperceptions Energy labelling programmes for appliances, buildings and vehicles have become an increasingly popular policy tool worldwide.

While research has shown that energy efficiency information on labels can have

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Contributors Nahim Bin Zahur energy studies institute (esi), part of the national university of singapore Dr Neil Sebastian D’Souza is a coal markets reporter at the independent commodities pricing organisation Argus media and a former esi fellow a tangible effect on decision-making, behavioural economists contend that they can have a bigger impact when their design taps into individuals’ behavioural biases.

The notion that people have cognitive limits and that these limits affect their ability to reason is couched under the term ‘bounded rationality’.

This term implies that seemingly trivial aspects of label design, such as the units in which data is presented, are significant.

Consider cars’ fuel economy, often expressed in miles per gallon (MPG).

Consumers or policymakers might mistakenly believe that fuel savings increase

linearly with the vehicle’s MPG. In fact, the actual relationship between fuel savings and MPG is curvilinear – the same increase in MPG will result in greater fuel savings if the car is less efficient to start with.

Figure 1 illustrates the relationship between a vehicle’s fuel economy rating and marginal fuel savings.

Replacing a 15MPG car with a 19MPG one results in fuel savings of 140 gallons over 10,000 miles. By contrast, replacing a 34MPG car with a 44MPG car – a seemingly bigger increase in fuel efficiency when expressed in miles per gallon – only results in fuel savings of 67 gallons over 10,000 miles. Experimental evidence suggests that most individuals are likely to misunderstand MPG labels.

Expressing fuel economy in gallons per mile (GPM) significantly improves decisionmaking because fuel savings increase linearly with a vehicle’s GPM. The ‘miles per gallon illusion’ can be generalised beyond fuel economy labels.

Any label that expresses energy-efficiency information as output divided by energy

BEHAVIOURAL INSIGHTS

consumption can be misinterpreted. Yet energy labels around the world continue to be designed without consideration for the possibility of bounded rationality.

The energy efficiency of air conditioners is customarily expressed in the form of the energy efficiency ratio (EER) – the ratio of the cooling output, in Btu/hr, to the electrical power input, in watts. This ratio is illustrated in the energy labels on air-conditioners in the US, European Union and the Philippines, among others. Singapore’s energy labels perform well in this regard, with the fuel economy labels expressing fuel economy in litres per 100km and air-conditioner labels displaying the effective power input and cooling capacity separately rather than as an energy-efficiency ratio.

The way in which information is presented can also shape behavioural patterns.

Evidence from behavioural research suggests that individuals are loss-averse, with most individuals valuing a potential loss two or more times more highly than a potential gain. This has implications for label design, for it means that framing an energy efficiency improvement as a gain, through, for example, a statement such as ‘the appliance is twice as efficient as the average appliance,’ is likely to have a smaller impact on behaviour than framing it as avoiding a loss, or: ‘the average appliance is half as efficient as this appliance’. Similarly, having a greater number of ‘negative’ categories would have a greater behavioural impact. In practice, though, energy labels rarely make use of loss aversion, whether by

framing energy efficiency performance in loss avoidance terms or by utilising ‘negative’ categories. The US fuel economy label, for instance, highlights how much fuel the vehicle saves relative to the average new vehicle, as opposed to how much fuel waste is avoided by using the vehicle.

In Singapore’s Green Mark Scheme, with buildings meeting the minimum energy requirements classed as Certified, Gold, GoldPlus or Platinum, it may not be apparent to the owner of a Gold building that its energy efficiency performance is two notches below the best.

One of the bedevilling aspects of the behavioural conundrum is that policy fixes designed to combat one type of behavioural bias can, in turn, result in additional ones.

“one of the bedevilling aspects of the behavioural conundrum is that policy fixes designed to combat one type of behavioural bias can, in their turn, result in additional ones”

relatIOnshIp between vehIcle’s fuel ecOnOmy ratInG and marGInal fuel savInGs

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5

Fuel economy (miles/gallons)

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48

46

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42

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28

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Marginal fuel savings (gallons)

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For instance, as the discussion of the ‘miles per gallon illusion’ highlights, people can have difficulty calculating aggregate energy consumption – which is the relevant metric for decision-making – from energy efficiency figures. As such, energy labels sometimes carry information on the expected annual energy consumption of the equipment in question, as with air conditioner labels in the EU or fuel economy labels in the US; however, this can mask the fact that the actual amount of energy consumed will depend on how much the consumer utilises the appliance. The benefits from purchasing an energy-efficient air conditioner are greater for a consumer who uses it several hours daily than for one who uses it sparingly, but this fact is less likely to be salient at the moment of purchase if the label already has an annual energy consumption figure printed on it.

The principles of behavioural economics would suggest that a ‘well-designed’ energy label contain several key pieces of information. Including statistics showing how many other consumers use energyefficient appliances taps into ‘pro-social’ preferences – people compare their own behaviour to that of the rest of society.

Printing information on the expected annual energy consumption and fuel costs precludes consumers from performing the calculations themselves and potentially making errors of judgement. Including information on the energy performance of the most and least efficient appliances in the market can induce consumers who are averse to extremes to go for the ‘compromise’ option, which can be designed in such a way that it is also the optimal choice. But there is a real risk that, when presented with a bewildering array of complex information, consumers might simply ignore the energy efficiency dimension altogether, a phenomenon known as ‘choice overload’.

The economics of information has brought to the fore the idea that lowering the cost of information provision via policies such as energy labelling schemes can help consumers make socially optimal decisions.

Behavioural economists, however, suggest that it is not just the provision of information that matters but also the manner in which it is conveyed.

Even seemingly trivial aspects of a label’s design, such as the unit in which energy efficiency is expressed, can have a significant impact on its effectiveness.

Tapping into consumers’ behavioural biases can thus bring about greater alignment between private and social objectives.

Source: Authors’ calculations for marginal fuel savings, assuming the car is driven 10,000 miles each year

Issue 4

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EDUCATION FOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES

reQuired learning Breaking down silos Meeting the challenge of climate change requires professionals grounded in diverse academic disciplines. Professor George Ofori of National University of Singapore (NUS) shares perspectives of academics, alumni and students of a groundbreaking degree that equips students to tackle complex environmental issues

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uman actIvItIes lie at the root of climate change – and its impact is becoming more serious.

Disrupted precipitation patterns have led to more frequent extreme weather events, in turn affecting people and natural habitats worldwide.

Its considerable social and economic impacts have included loss of life, destruction of property, food shortages, and mass migration that threaten some communities’ very existence.

The Masters of Environmental Management (MEM) degree, now in its 12th year, is a pioneering course that helps students from many academic and professional backgrounds to find solutions to this ongoing threat.

Cutting across several disciplines, it aims to expand participants’ understanding of approaches and solutions to critical environmental issues.

Deconstructing one subject, whether it is climate change as a whole or a phenomenon such as precipitation which can affect the lives of millions, demonstrates just how complex a problem humanity faces. Yet the approaches of governments, business and educational institutions remain largely confined within discrete disciplines, from economics and law to social science.

Can such a fragmented approach to multidimensional challenges be effective in anticipating change and planning sophisticated responses?

Do current educational systems offer sufficient breadth of understanding of the challenges that lie ahead?

Contributor Professor George Ofori is director of the masters of environmental management degree at the national university of singapore and director, climate change programme department, neA

“a neW approach is needed – one that integrates subjects normally vieWed as distinct so that We may rise to the occasion” Looking globally, the answer is largely no – societies are poorly equipped to meet the colossal challenges facing our economies, ecosystems, communities and our very civilisation.

A new approach is needed – one that integrates subjects normally viewed as distinct so that we may rise to the occasion.

Educators, in particular, bear responsibilities towards the process of amalgamation.

An integrated approach It is clear that climate change can only be effectively dealt with within a multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary context. For example, approaches within

environmental economics to prompt mitigation and adaptation must be guided by scientific inquiry.

With its combination of scientific and economic disciplines, the MEM is ideally suited to those who wish to take such an approach – indeed, it may be the only appropriate course.

Scientific knowledge about climate change is continually evolving, meaning that a greater understanding of current research is needed at a local, regional and global level.

For example, new findings show that local pollution can disturb atmospheric energy balance. In return, a disturbed atmosphere tends to result in extreme weather events such as heavy precipitation and flooding.

This further underlines the need for multidisciplinary studies to increase understanding of the complex and dynamic patterns of climate and their impacts on human life and ecosystems. Students need to gain a broad and balanced view of environmental challenges.

Multilateral efforts Greenhouse gas emissions do not respect national boundaries.

If strategies to tackle climate change are to be effective they must be multilateral; bold policies should be formulated and solutions implemented at national, regional and international levels.

It is currently understood that there is a need not only to mitigate climate change, but also to adapt to changing climate conditions. Societies should move towards using renewable energy, protecting coastlines Issue 4

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EDUCATION FOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES

and planning for disaster management, for example, but such measures are currently limited by societal values, ethics and attitudes.

Mindset and behavioural changes that will alter people’s lifestyles are crucial.

Course structure Launched in 2001, the MEM programme is a multidisciplinary, integrated educational approach to a range of issues and challenges relating to the environment and its effective management.

The programme targets senior and middle-level managers and officers in companies and in government and nongovernmental organisations.

Participants come from Singapore, the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. The programme is offered jointly by nine faculties and schools in the National University of Singapore (NUS) and hosted

by the School of Design and Environment (SDE) and led by a Committee comprising a representative from each faculty/school.

It can be studied full or part-time, in one or two academic years respectively.

Each module explores climate change from a different perspective.

By considering the issue through discplines as diverse as science and engineering through to planning and law, students and alumni gain an extremely broad understanding of strategies through which it can be addressed.

Student feedback indicates the approach is working. One current student notes: “The nine faculties in the programme offer different views on how we should look at the environment from different sectors such as technology, law, business and urban planning.”

A group of seven core modules form the first component of the programme:

partIcIpant perspectIves Alan Yau, Chief Executive Officer, Sembcorp China, MEM Alumnus The MEM programme has armed me with a comprehensive understanding of the causes and challenges of climate change.

I am in the utilities business – power generation, waste water treatment, water supply, and so on. We are doing our part to protect the environment by treating waste water and finding ways to reduce our carbon footprint – we have wind farms and waste-to-energy plants.

Part of my job involves making decisions on what type of technology to adopt and what type of chemicals to use in relation to bottomline considerations. I have been more conscious in making the right decision, with a bias towards protecting the environment.

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Business and Environment; Environmental Economics and Public Policy; Environmental Law; Environmental Management and Assessment; Environmental Planning; Environmental Science; and Environmental Technology.

Each student must also submit a dissertation not exceeding 20,000 words or a study report of no more than 10,000 words which must be completed under supervision, offering the opportunity to explore topics of interest in greater depth, regardless of whether it falls within the student’s domain.

Incentives to excel in this segment include the Shell Prize, awarded for the best dissertation, and published summaries of the best dissertations and study reports in books.

A third component of the MEM programme is made up by the MEM Seminar Series, usually held every fortnight and delivered by eminent practitioners, researchers and professors. In one student’s opinion, they offer the opportunity to hear the diverse perspectives and experiences of distinguished individuals on a variety of environmental issues.

One alumna reflects that: “The series of seminars were extremely helpful in letting the students know what is being done by many entities (public and private) in mitigating these challenges and helping them to realise the true meaning of the phrase ‘doing good is doing well’.”

Depths of understanding The urgency of addressing climate change is embedded in each of the core MEM modules.

Students are encouraged to choose the electives that will best enable them to address

I am proud to say that this business philosophy is in line with my company’s commitment to CSR. The knowledge acquired from the MEM programme enables me to have a holistic view of my industry and has sharpened my business acumen in identifying opportunities.

Jasmine Teo, Group Corporate Social Responsibility Manager, SingTel, MEM Alumna In my current job as CSR manager, my job scope has expanded beyond the environment into the broader aspects of sustainability.

To me, environmental management is often the most complex issue within the sustainability or CSR sphere, and the MEM programme has equipped me with the necessary knowledge. I have also gained a deeper appreciation and understanding of the connections between the environment, society and the company’s business activities.

complex environmental problems in their present or future jobs.

They are encouraged to take an overview by considering environmental issues and their management from a variety of perspectives and to consider how seemingly disparate issues interconnect – a holistic approach that can present problems for participants accustomed to more narrow fields of enquiry. For example, one current student considers that students from non-technical backgrounds may find the sessions on environmental technology tough, yet notes that such study equips them with the basic skills needed to calculate the environmental impact of various technologies. They can then make environmentally sound choices as individuals or on behalf of employers.

Naturally, students from engineering or science backgrounds face similar challenges on modules in the sphere of economics, public policy and law. On Environmental Economics and Public Policy modules, preparatory and additional, or supplementary, classes led by graduate students can be arranged for students who need support.

A sharpened awareness of challenges and heightened sense of urgency are evident among MEM graduates, with one noting: “Through the MEM programme, I’ve learnt to appreciate the different facets of environmental issues and how intricately they’re linked.”

International dimensions Students from more than 27 countries have been admitted to the MEM programme – a factor that offers enhanced opportunities to participants.

“mem students benefit directly from the programme’s links With foreign universities With strong track records in the study of environmental management” One alumna noted: “The programme has brought in students from many countries and cultures across the globe, sharing their thoughts and views from different perspectives and building the capacity required to implement environmental policies and programmes in our respective countries and workplaces.”

In this way, the degree also helps to build capacity in many countries to address environmental issues such as climate change, and to sow the seeds that will contribute to the success of international negotiations and actions.

MEM students benefit directly from the programme’s links with foreign universities with strong track records in the study of environmental management. Foremost among these are Yale University’s School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, and the Nicholas School for the Environmental and Earth Sciences at Duke University, both in the USA. The programme’s International Advisory

Van Nguyen Dao Ngoc, World Wildlife Fund, Greater Mekong, Vietnam, MEM Alumna The MEM programme is extremely helpful to me in my current job. It provided me with a comprehensive understanding and broad knowledge of the environment and the aspects to be managed.

It was carefully designed and thus covers significant global and regional environmental issues. The reading lists were also well designed to encourage students of different backgrounds to acquaint themselves with areas of their own interests.

The knowledge I acquired in environmental law and environmental economics modules are particularly helpful to me for my work in nature conservation.

The dissertation and research work are invaluable to students with a non-research background and those who have never been taught writing skills.

Committee is chaired by Professor Tommy Koh, Ambassador-at-Large of Singapore, and comprises eminent academics and practitioners from around the world.

Committee members have provided valuable guidance and support which has enhanced the programme; local members include NEA’s CEO, Mr Andrew Tan; and the CEOs of the National Parks Board and Urban Redevelopment Authority.

Several of the degree’s professors are involved in research on the impacts of climate change being conducted in their respective departments, faculties, schools and research centres.

The programme also receives strong support from industry and government agencies in the form of scholarships, employee sponsorship, bursaries and internships.

In a world that will face ever greater environmental challenges, the MEM provides a multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary education in environmental management to middle-level professionals in Singapore, Southeast Asia and beyond.

Designed to address a complex subject in an effective manner, the programme plays a key role in capacity building to address the impact of climate change and to develop the knowledge that will enable adaptation.

However, this is only one humble first step.

Educational institutions globally must also awaken to the same reality that only an integrated approach to environmental issues will provide the enhanced understanding among professionals needed to adequately meet the challenges of climate change tackle climate change and to effectively manage the environment.

Mallika Naguran, MEM student and founder of sustainability consultancy and publication Gaia Discovery I have been concerned about climate change for some years, leading me to undertake research into it for my work in environmental publication and consultancy.

My interest lies in finding mitigation and adaptation measures and solutions to reduce the threat of extreme weather changes and global warming and its impact on communities and businesses in Southeast Asia.

The rigour of the MEM programme has enabled a better grounding of environmental issues such as climate change. Apart from enhancing the knowledge of students about climate change, the programme also inspires individuals to take responsibility for their own actions.

The MEM programme has helped me all round by giving me new skills and information through research, fieldwork and analysis.

Issue 4

069

PARTING SHOT

into thin air?

The Clean Development Mechanism allows developing countries’ carbon cutting projects to form part of emission trading schemes. But with flat CER prices will it remain relevant in years ahead?

070

investing country (developed country)

400 200

20 -2 0 13

20

12

0

20

host country (developing country)

funds & technology transfer

initial allocation of allowances

600

11

reduced emissions with cdm

800

20

kp target

fIGure 2: $215 bIllIOn Invested, $1 trIllIOn threatened

10

cers

The CDM market today CER prices sunk to a record low in the first quarter of 2013. Based on market data and assessments by Thomson Reuters Point Carbon, the OTC closing price on 15 March 2013 for CERs, based on December 2013 contracts, was US$0.32.

The decline in CER prices mainly stemmed from decreased annual emissions in the EU, as opposed to the emission allowances allocated to companies, resulting in weak demand for CERs as offsets under the EU emissions trading scheme.

According to Indian newspaper the Economic Times, climate experts felt that “reluctance of industrialised countries to accept binding emission targets will dry up demand for carbon credits and reduce their prices further.”

20

total emission units increase with cers

What is the CDM? The CDM allows GHG emission reductions from projects implemented in developing countries, including Singapore, to earn certified emission reduction (CER) credits, each equivalent to one tonne of CO2.

These can be traded and sold to offset the emissions of developed countries with targets, such as Japan and EU member states.

As illustrated by Figure 1, the CDM was designed to promote investment in emission reduction projects in developing countries while promoting sustainable development through technology transfer from developed nations to developing ones.

A broad range of projects is eligible under the CDM, from fuel switching and energy efficiency improvements to projects on renewable energy.

More importantly, to qualify for CDM project developers must prove ‘additionality,’ defined as emission reductions that are additional to what would otherwise have occurred.

To date, the CDM constitutes the largest source of mitigation finance to developing countries – in 2012 the UNFCCC reported that the total investment in registered or soon-to-be-registered CDM projects as of June 2012 had been estimated at US$215.4 billion.

The first CDM project was registered in 2005 in Brazil. Since then, as of 31 January 2013, more than 6,000 projects had been

09

emission reductions from cdm

compliance scheme that is applicable to developing countries. In December 2012, the Convention adopted the Doha Amendment to the KP, which launched the second commitment period, from 2013 to 2020.

The collective emissions reductions targets proposed by signatory developed countries for the second commitment period would reduce GHG emissions by about 18 per cent below 1990 levels between 2013 and 2020.

20

projected emissions without cdm

Suresh Kulaveerasingham is director of the climate change programme department, national environment Agency

registered in 83 developing countries and approximately 1.2 billion CERs have been issued. By the end of 2020, it is expected that 2.4 billion CERs will have been issued.

Figure 2 illustrates CDM investment to date with future projections.

UNFCCC’s CDM database shows that 85.3 per cent of the projects are registered in Asia and the Pacific. More than 70 per cent of investments in CDM are concentrated in China, India or Brazil. Figure 3 illustrates the split of registered projects by host countries.

In terms of technology, Figure 4 shows that renewable energy constitutes approximately 70 per cent of the investment leverage by CDM.

08

fIGure 1: hOw cdm wOrks

Contributor

20

t

he unIted natIOns Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992 in response to international calls for action to combat global warming.

Two years later, recognising that the Convention’s provisions for reducing emissions were inadequate, the UN adopted the Kyoto Protocol (KP), which legally binds 38 developed countries to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets.

The first commitment period of the KP, from 2008 to 2012, required developed countries to reduce their emissions by 5.2 per cent, on average, below 1990 levels.

Together, excluding the United States, these nations account for about 43 per cent of global CO2 emissions for 1990.

Singapore is a party to both the UNFCCC and the KP. Under the KP, developing countries including Singapore do not have emission reduction targets.

Three market-based mechanisms were designed under the KP to allow developed countries to meet their targets in the most costeffective manner – the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation (JI) and the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS).

Of the three market-based measures under the KP, the CDM is the first and only international GHG mitigation

investment per annum

total investment

PARTING SHOT

The falling CER prices will reduce the incentive to make low-carbon investments and increase the risk of locking in carbonintensive infrastructure.

Mr Gerald Hamaliuk, President of Landfill Gas Canada Ltd, a carbon consultant for a CDM project by Kim Hock Corporation, said: “The share fall in CER prices is not allowing registered projects to realise the additional revenues necessary to fund the capital costs of projects.”

But with more countries looking into putting in place emission trading schemes, Mr Vincent Tang, ECO Special Waste Management Pte Ltd (ECO SWM), said: “The ‘bottom-up’ approach will lead to a revolution in the carbon market system and help to achieve environmental integrity in reducing carbon emission.”

The EU, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Australia have signed on to the second commitment period, from 2013 to 2020; however, with the US staying out of the KP and Canada’s withdrawal from it; and Japan, New Zealand and Russia opting out of the second commitment period, the targets would only apply to less than 15 per cent of the world’s GHG emissions.

Despite this, the outcome of the Doha meeting provided a positive outlook for the carbon market. Developed countries agreed to review their KP commitments by the end of 2014 to increase their levels of mitigation ambition, which would result in an increase in the demand for CERs. If a global climate change agreement beyond 2020 is to be made, countries must work towards developing targets, which are expected to be more ambitious than those of the second commitment period.

The deadline by which countries must approve this measure is 2015.

Looking ahead The CDM is currently challenged by the low prices of, and demand for, CERs. Mr Rahul Kar, Director, Climate Change and Sustainability Services at KPMG, said: “Current uncertainties in the

global economy and the European carbon regulations have resulted in falling CER prices that are unlikely to recover without renewed demand.”

For Singapore, he opined that “future green projects in the country and elsewhere are likely to shift their focus towards international voluntary carbon markets that currently provide better pricing.”

The CDM was intended to help developed countries meet their emission reduction targets and to assist developing countries in achieving sustainable development.

fIGure 3: dIstrIbutIOn Of reGIstered prOjects by hOst cOuntry (%)

18%

3% 4%

18%

“the effects of climate change are already being seen, so increased action is inevitable” Apart from making emission reduction projects economically viable through the revenue from CERs, there are also additional benefits from these projects. For example, in Kim Hock Corporation’s CDM project, horticultural waste used as fuel, diverted from the public waste incinerators, helped to free capacity for other waste to be treated.

This would help to improve the waste handling system in Singapore.

Looking ahead, with the UNFCCC aiming to develop a global climate change regime in 2020 and to increase post-2020 ambitions, CDM will continue to stay relevant and play an important role in the future climate change regime.

This view on the role of the CDM is also echoed by Mr Peer Stiansen, Chair of the UNFCCC CDM Executive Board: “The effects of climate change are already being seen, so increased action on climate change is inevitable.

“Tools like the CDM will become indispensable.”

53%

4%

china

india

brazil

mexico

vietnam

other countries

fIGure 4: number (%) Of cdm prOjects In each cateGOry 0.8%

0.4%

3% 2%

2%

7%

16%

69%

hfcs, pfcs, sf & n2o reduction

renewables

ch4 reduction, and cement and coal mine/bed supply-side ee

fuel switch

demand-side ee

Afforestation and reforestation

transport

Source: UNFCCC

cdm In sInGapOre NEA is Singapore’s Designated National Authority (DNA) for CDM projects under the KP. Its role is to ensure that CDM projects to be implemented locally meet national sustainable development (SD) criteria. In addition, NEA administers the

CDM Documentation Grant to promote the uptake of CDM projects.

The grant will co-fund, with up to $100,000 per project, the cost of engaging carbon consultancy services to develop CDM projects in Singapore.

Since 2006 there has been a progressive increase in the number of CDM projects in the city-state – to date, it has 11 ongoing CDM projects which are estimated to reduce approximately 1.2 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent annually.

Of the 11 projects, three have been registered with the CDM Executive Board under the KP. In September 2012, the CDM project by Eco SWM Pte Ltd became the first CDM project in Singapore to be issued with carbon credits.

Issue 4

071

OPPORTUNITIES

career opportunities The National Environment Agency (NEA) is the leading government body responsible for sustainability and cleanliness in Singapore.

Committed to encouraging individuals to reduce the ecological impact of their actions, it develops and spearheads numerous initiatives through SENIOR ASSISTANT DIRECTOR (OPERATIONS AUDIT/PLANNING) Responsibilities Leading the operational audit team to plan and perform operational compliance audits; managing the team to ensure operations audit programmes are carried out effectively; formulating and developing an internal operations audit work plan to ensure that internal controls and checks on NEA’s operations are in place; evaluating adequacy and effectiveness of internal controls; identifying audit issues and concerns; and making practical value-added recommendations on internal controls and operations processes to management.

Requirements Degree in accountancy or related field; a professional qualification of CPA and/or CIA would be advantageous. Five years’ auditing experience in medium to large CPA firms and/or corporate IA departments and/ or at least five years’ experience of internal operational audit and process improvement work in the public sector. A sound understanding of internal control concepts, corporate governance and risk management issues is required, as is knowledge of audit procedures including planning, techniques, test and sampling methods involved in conducting audits. A high level of computer literacy is essential. Candidates should be highly motivated and able to work independently, and possess strong analytical, report writing and communication skills.

ASSISTANT DIRECTOR (OPERATIONS PLANNING) Responsibilities Supervising officers and overseeing maintenance engineering and system management of hawker centres to ensure

072

partnerships with the People, Public and Private sectors. If you care passionately about the environment and making a difference, why not join us? Candidates are invited to apply at nea. gov.sg/careers or the Singapore Public Service Job Portal, careers.gov.sg.

a safe, hygienic dining environment; formulating guidelines, SOPs and processes to facilitate the smooth operation of department and hawker centres. He or she will monitor licensing and tenancy processes and policies; support staff and help to draft plans for improving hawker centres. They will also facilitate higher cleaning standards and sustainable contracts, and strengthen relationships with stakeholders.

Requirements Bachelor’s degree in estate management, building technology or engineering; at least three years’ relevant employment. Must be comfortable taking enforcement actions and have an outgoing, pleasant personality.

Maturity, independence and resourcefulness are important, as are initiative and strong interpersonal and communication skills.

MANAGER, CORPORATE COMMUNICATIONS (MEDIA RELATIONS) Responsibilities Engaging the media to enhance NEA’s reputation as the lead agency for improving and sustaining a clean and green environment; conceptualising, managing and implementing integrated media relations and marketing communications programmes.

Applicants should submit at least three samples of written work.

Requirements Degree in mass communications or other relevant discipline; at least six years’ experience in media relations or corporate communications. More experienced candidates may be considered for a senior position. Able to work independently and within a team, they must have developed and implemented media relations programmes, be bilingual and possess excellent oral, written and analytical skills.

ASSISTANT MANAGER/ASSISTANT DIRECTOR (DEVELOPMENT) Responsibilities The role involves supervising the design and construction of market and hawker centres.

Working alongside project consultants, the successful candidate will scrutinise costs and monitor the centres’ design and construction.

He or she will brief advisors, government and non-government organisations, GRO leaders and other stakeholders on issues relating to development.

Requirements Degree in architecture; architectural studies; construction management; quantity surveying; building technology; or engineering. At least three years’ relevant experience; familiarity with public-sector project development.

ASSISTANT DIRECTOR/ASSISTANT MANAGER (PROCUREMENT) Responsibilities Working as part of a team responsible for upholding proper procurement governance in NEA, the successful candidate will facilitate departments’ procurement activities while ensuring that government and NEA procurement policies are applied and standards of integrity and transparency upheld. Leading a team, he or she will vet tender documents to ensure they comply with IM (Procurement) and NEA procurement policies and guidelines; prepare procurement reports for Tenders Boards; train department procurement officers and buyers on IM (Procurement) and auditing observations on procurement.

Requirements Good degree in any discipline; at least four years’ experience of government procurement; working knowledge of Instruction Manual (Procurement) and

GeBIZ; an inquisitive mind; strong analytical, interpersonal, writing and presentation skills; and the ability to work well under pressure to meet tight deadlines.

ASSISTANT MANAGER/EXECUTIVE (POLICY) Responsibilities The successful candidate will review and develop environmental protection and/or public health policies. He or she will work closely with NEA’s and MEWR’s policy units to implement policies, standards and strategies. They will also carry out economic analysis and operational research to support policy formulation.

Requirements Degree in engineering, science, economics, political science, social science or related discipline; keen interest in policy; good analytical, writing and project management skills; strong interpersonal and communication skills; maturity, initiative and resourcefulness; and knowledge of Microsoft Office.

ASSISTANT DIRECTOR/ASSISTANT MANAGER (CORPORATE PLANNING AND RISK MANAGEMENT) Responsibilities You will support the Head of Corporate Planning and Risk Management in planning and implementing Workplace Safety and Health (WSH) programmes and Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) across NEA. This will include identifying, reviewing and monitoring guidelines and SOPs; and WSH, strategic and operational-level risks. You will develop and monitor the corresponding control/mitigation plans and develop NEA’s WSH and risk management culture.

Requirements Good degree in engineering or business administration with at least four years’ relevant career experience, preferably in WSH and ERM in the public sector or management consulting. Candidates must have strong analytical skills and inquisitive minds; excellent communication, teamwork, presentation and project management skills; display initiative and be result-oriented with a hands-on, ‘can do’ attitude.

ASSISTANT MANAGER, HAWKER CENTRES DIVISION (OPERATIONS) Responsibilities Leading and monitoring officers during routine inspections of hawker centres, carrying out enforcement actions where necessary; working with grassroots leaders, hawker representatives and external agencies

to ensure good working relationships and timely provision of advice; preparing and conducting briefing and dialogue sessions with hawkers in cases of non-compliance; engaging 3P partners to improve working relations and buy-ins for policy changes; and investigating, monitoring and addressing feedback, complaints and appeals.

Requirements Degree, preferably in estate management, building technology, or engineering; employment history of at least three years; outgoing, pleasant personality; maturity, independence and resourcefulness; computer literacy and ability to perform night duties.

ENGINEER (ENVIRONMENT TECHNOLOGY OFFICE) Responsibilities Helping to plan, coordinate and manage research programmes and incentive schemes relating to environment technologies; keeping abreast of operational-ready technologies and those with potential for breakthrough; identifying capabilities gaps and needs leveraging on technology; managing technology development projects and establishing links with academia and industry.

Requirements Degree in engineering or a related discipline; keen interest in technology development; strong analytical, project management, organisational, interpersonal and communication skills.

ENGINEER (RECYCLING) Responsibilities Promoting national waste minimisation and recycling among households through the National Recycling Programme; facilitating and implementing waste minimisation and recycling programmes; handling feedback and enquiries; ensuring quality service standards are met; managing the public recycling bins contract; collating recycling data and performing ad hoc duties.

Requirements A good degree, preferably in engineering; a keen interest in waste and resource management; computer literacy with good knowledge of Microsoft Office; strong analytical, writing, communication and interpersonal skills; maturity, independence and resourcefulness.

SENIOR EXECUTIVE/EXECUTIVE (ALLOCATION) Responsibilities Implementing tender and hawker policy changes and directives on vacant stalls, and

planning and scheduling them for public tender and application. Compiling and maintaining tender statistics; processing assignments and transferring cases, and handling public enquiries.

Requirements A good degree; must have worked for at least two years; proficiency in Microsoft Office; must be customer-oriented, independent, resourceful and able to multitask, with strong communication skills, both written and verbal.

Must be a team player with strong analytical and interpersonal skills.

EXECUTIVE (HUMAN RESOURCE BUSINESS PARTNER) Responsibilities Partnering line departments in order to understand and assist with HR operations including recruitment, re-employment, performance management, grievance handling, exit management and advising on policies and procedures. The Executive will also implement HR initiatives and manage ad-hoc projects.

Requirements Relevant degree. Fresh graduates welcome to apply.

EXECUTIVE (PROCUREMENT) Responsibilities Advising NEA departments on procurement; ensuring government and NEA policies and guidelines are applied and that standards of integrity and transparency upheld; devising a framework for monitoring contractors and assessing performance.

Requirements A good degree in any discipline; two to three years’ experience related to government procurement; and working knowledge of Instruction Manual (Procurement), processes and GeBIZ. Candidates must be inquisitive and analytical, with a keen eye for detail. Team players, they should also have good writing and presentation skills.

EXECUTIVE (OPERATIONS) Responsibilities Facilities management of hawker centres and markets, including monitoring and regulating cleanliness; establishing strong working relationships with hawkers’ associations; managing stall tenants; conducting regular surveillance; enforcing rules and regulations; and engaging stakeholders.

Requirements Degree, preferably in estate management, building technology or engineering.

Weather and climate of Singapore the

TH E

W EATH ER

THE

AN D

C LI M AT E

WEATHER AND CLIMATE

OF SIN GA PO RE

Many people here are intrigued by the weather in Singapore and the Southeast Asian Region. Few books have been written specifically to explain the weather and climate systems experienced in this locality. To share insight into these areas, the Meteorological Service Singapore published The Weather and Climate of Singapore to spread understanding of how the weather influences our lives in many ways.

METEOROLOGIC

AL SERVICE SINGA PORE

To learn more about the book and to get a copy, please visit: http://app2.nea.gov.sg/ weather_climate_sg.aspx

Win your copy

ENVISION Magazine has 5 copies of the book to give away to its readers (limit one per winner). Here’s how you can get yours:

OF

SINGAPORE

METEOROLOGIC AL SERVICE SINGA PORE

1 Check out the article ‘Innovative real-time weather monitoring system launched’ on page 57 and identify how many stations have been installed.

2 Email the number of stations to chris_tobias@nea.gov.sg by July 15, 2013.

First 5 lucky readers with the correct answer will get a free copy of the book sent to them via post. Best of luck!