R E TA I L O B S E R VATO R Y
LEBANON FIRST HALF OF
2019
LFA - CCIABML
RETAIL ACTIVITY INDICATORS QUICK READ
A semi-annual report prepared by
lfalebanon.com
LFA implementing partner
Published by the Retail Observatory at the Lebanese Franchise Association Š 2019 All rights reserved | Lebanese Franchise Association and QuantAnalysts s.a.r.l. August 26, 2019
RETAIL ACTIVITY INDICATORS | First Half of 2019
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Lebanese Franchise Association (LFA) and QuantAnalysts are grateful for the valuable technical assistance the Industrial Research Institute (IRI) has offered to the Retail Observatory and to the retail indicators project. The LFA and QuantAnalysts are indebted to Dr. Nabil Fahed for the valuable support and constructive advice he continues to offer to the project. Special thanks are due to Ms. Nour Nasr for putting her expertise in quantitative methods at the disposal of the project.
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RETAIL ACTIVITY INDICATORS | First Half of 2019
Services (3)
Goods (6)
CATEGORIES AND SUBCATEGORIES OF CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES CLOTHING AND FASHION GOODS – 8 SUBCATEGORIES
LUXURY GOODS – 7 SUBCATEGORIES
Men’s Wear; Women’s Wear; Women’s Accessories; Children’s Wear; Family Clothing; Shoes; Apparel; Fabric / Sewing
Jewelry / Watches / Silverware; Crafts; Art Dealers Galleries; Florists; Cigars; Gifts; Electronics
FOOD AND BEVERAGES – 5 SUBCATEGORIES
SPORTS AND HOBBIES GOODS – 3 SUBCATEGORIES
Supermarkets; Confectionery; Bakeries; Miscellaneous Food Stores; Liquor / Beer / Wine
Sporting Goods; Games / Toys; Music Instruments
COSMETICS GOODS – 3 SUBCATEGORIES
HOSPITALITY SERVICES – 4 SUBCATEGORIES
Perfumes; Cosmetics; Personal Care
Catering; Restaurants; Pubs / Nightclubs; Hotels / Resorts
HOUSEHOLD GOODS – 11 SUBCATEGORIES
TOURISM SERVICES – 6 SUBCATEGORIES
Sanitary Utilities; Glass / Paint / Wallpaper; Hardware; Furniture; Floor Covering; Drapery / Upholstery; Miscellaneous Home Furnishing; Household Appliances; Audio-Visual; Antiques Restoration; Crystal and Glassware
Travel Agencies; Travel Services; Movies / Theaters; Dance Schools / Studios; Tourist Attractions / Exhibits; Clubs
MEDICAL SERVICES – 5 SUBCATEGORIES Doctors; Dentists; Ophthalmologists; Hospitals; Other Medical / Health Services
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RETAIL ACTIVITY INDICATORS | First Half of 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE RETAIL SALES PERFORMANCE INDICATORS IN 2018 The ninth edition of the LFA-CCIABML Retail Activity Indicators presents retail sales indicators for the first half of 2019, and compares them with those of the second half year and the first half year of 2018. To preserve the integrity of indicator time series, the report retained 2012 as the base year and followed the processing protocol adopted since the inception of the statistical exercise. With lengthening time series, the report introduced more advanced trend analyses, while maintaining alternative trend detection procedures and analyzing change in trend parameters across time frames.
1. The overall indicator In the first half of 2019, the overall retail sales performance indicator for the nine categories of goods and services covered by the report was 5.51 percent higher than its level in the first half of 2018. That indicator was down 2.62 percent from its level in the second half of 2018.
The sales indicator for all nine categories of goods and services remained 8.36 percent below its 2012 base year level.
2. The sales performance indicators by category Of the nine categories of consumer goods and services included in the report, the sales performance indicators of four categories declined in the first half of 2019 as compared with their levels in the same period of the preceding year.
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RETAIL ACTIVITY INDICATORS | First Half of 2019
In the first half of 2019, the overall retail sales performance indicator for the nine categories of goods and services covered by the report was:
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5.51%
THAN ITS LEVEL IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2018
8.36%
2012 BASE YEAR LEVEL
RETAIL ACTIVITY INDICATORS | First Half of 2019
Declining indicators in the first half of 2019 By order of the magnitude of the decline, retail categories that saw their sales performance indicators decline are: cosmetics, clothing and fashion, sports and hobbies goods, and medical services. The retail sales indicator for cosmetics was down 35.68 percent from its level in the first half of 2018. That indicator was 25.58 percent below its base year level. The sales indicator for the clothing and fashion retail category was down 13.22 percent from its level in the same period of the previous year and stood at 51.69 percent below its 2012 base year level. The sports and hobbies goods sales indicator was 3.93 percent below its level in the first half of 2018. That indicator was 51.49 percent lower than its 2012 base level. The retail sales indicators for medical services decreased by 2.39 percent in the first half of 2019 from its level in the corresponding period of the previous year. That indicator, however, was 40.39 percent above its base level.
Advancing indicators in the first half of 2019 Five retail sales indicators staged advances in the first half of 2019. By order of magnitude of the advance, these indicators are those of hospitality services, food and beverages, the household goods, luxury goods, and tourism services. The retail sales indicator for hospitality services rose by 45.4 percent in the first half of 2019 as compared with its level in the same period of 2018. That indicator stood at a level 27.99 percent above the 2012 base year level. The food and beverages sales indicator was up 41.19 percent form its level in the first half of 2018. That indicator was above its 2012 base year level by the broadest margin of 71.34 percent. The household goods retail sales indicator moved up by a moderate 4.76 percent in the first half of 2019 and remained 32.62 percent below its base year level. The retail sales indicator for luxury goods was 2.92 percent higher than its level in the first half of 2018. That indicator recorded the broadest fall from its base year at it stood at 55.6 percent below the 2012 level. The retail sales indicator for tourism services advanced by a minimal 2.88 percent, and was a minimal 2.04 percent above its base level.
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24.00
-36.00 SPORTS AND HOBBIES GOODS
- 51.49%
- 8 .3 6%
ALL NINE CATEGORIES
+40.39%
LUXURY GOODS
- 55.6%
+2.04 %
HOUSEHOLD GOODS
- 3 2.62%
+27.99%
COSMETICS
MEDICAL SERVICES
- 25.58%
TOURISM SERVICES
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HOSPIOTALITY SERVICES
-56.00 +71.34%
-16.00
FOOD & BEVERAGES
400 CLOTHING AND FASHION
44.00
- 51.69 %
RETAIL ACTIVITY INDICATORS | First Half of 2019
Retail sales indicators in the first half of 2019 in relation to 2012 base year level
64.00
RETAIL ACTIVITY INDICATORS | First Half of 2019
3. Sales performance indicators that hit dataset highs Two retail sales indicators peaked at a six and a half year high in the first half of 2019. These are the indicator for the food and beverages category and the indicator for the hospitality services category.
163.00
Half-yearly sales indicator food & beverages
143.00 123.00 103.00
122.00
H1-2019
H2-2018
H1-2018
H1-2017
H2-2017
H2-2016
H1-2016
H2-2015
H1-2015
H2-2014
H1-2014
H2-2013
63.00
H1-2013
83.00
Half-yearl sales indicator - hospitality services
112.00 102.00 92.00 82.00
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RETAIL ACTIVITY INDICATORS | First Half of 2019
4. Trend analysis The interpretation of retail sales performance indicators derives from the adoption of four different but complementary statistical approaches namely, the de-seasonalization of indicator time series, the moving average approach, the parametric trend approach, and the non-parametric trend approach. Combined, these approaches impart added understanding of the datasets and could facilitate projections.
All nine categories of goods and services
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RETAIL ACTIVITY INDICATORS | First Half of 2019
Overall retail sales indicator The linear trend line for the 78-point seasonally adjusted indicator data set for all nine categories of consumer goods and services took a turn upwards as it traced a steeper gradient of +0.155 compared with a gradient of +0.132 for the 72-point indicator data. However, the slopes for the 66-point data and the 60-point data sets were steeper at +0.163 and +0.165 respectively. The locally weighted fit for the seasonally adjusted overall retail sales indicator conveys three distinct phases. The first exhibits a perceptible uptrend covering the first 24-month series, the second phase traces a marked gradient decline in the 48 months that followed, and the third phase covers the first half of 2019 and shows a resumption of the uptrend. The chart line for the seasonally adjusted overall indicator remained below the 2012 base year level except for two data points out of 78, whereas the trend line remained well below base year. • The retail sales performance indicators for three categories of retail exhibited a negative trend over the 78-month period. These categories are, in decreasing order of magnitude of the rate of decline: clothing and fashion, tourism services, and luxury goods.
• The performance indicator data for six categories of retail formed a positive trend over the 78-month period. These categories are, in decreasing order of magnitude of the rate of ascent: food & beverages; medical services; hospitality services; cosmetics; sports & hobbies goods; and household goods.
About the present report The ninth edition of the Retail Activity Indicators report bases its statistical analysis of indicator data on 78-month-long time series. The longer time series enhance the reliability and robustness of the seasonal adjustment procedure, correlations, and trend parameters. The longer series have also made possible the introduction of the locally weighted fit as an approach to trend analysis.
The report’s rationale As a guiding reference on retail trade, the report continues to introduce more advanced procedures to the exercise of building retail activity indicators. This exercise seeks to fill a gap in the national statistics platform, to provide retail enterprises and prospective investors with quantitative knowledge about the retail industry, and to put at the disposal of representatives of the retail industry the quantitative basis to carry out their advocacy mandate.
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