6 minute read
Barking Mad
This month Pramland’s John Barker is taking a look back at 2022 and gives his insight of what we might expect during the course of the next 12 months.
HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE! Welcome to 2023. I have to admit, I’m really not a big fan of the whole new year thing. I just don’t understand what I should be getting excited about. Call me old and miserable but for me it’s a load of fuss over nothing. Yipppeee let’s celebrate the fact that we have another 12 months at work to look forward to. We get to become another year older and given the fact that 50 is heading towards me faster than Max Verstappen on a flying lap, you can imagine this only amplifies my feelings of dread.
Ok so there a few nice things to look forward to. Arsenal may finally be crowned Premier League champions again (it’s been a very, very long wait for that one I can tell you), we have our summer holidays on the horizon and best of all <INSERT WINK EMOJI> we all have Harrogate in the diaries for October! Ok, I concede new year may not be that bad but can we all just stop setting off fireworks now please (think of them scared animals). As 2022 has drawn to a close I thought I’d give you a few thoughts on the market and where I think we may be this time next year (first I’m moaning about new year and now I’m fast forwarding and wishing the year away!). 2022 was always going to be a very strange year for us. No matter what trade you’re in, comparing 2022 to the previous year was never going to be simple. The previous year saw lock down lifted and the inevitable boost in trade, many of us ended 2021 on a
high thanks to increased footfall and consumer confidence. As we entered 2022 things got off to an inevitable good start, that was until Russia decided it was a good idea to invade Ukraine. This started a snowball of business issues and caused stock markets to drop, and currencies to go crazier than the crazy frog shaking his crazy thang on Ozzy Osbournes Crazy Train. Fuel prices shot up and then the media started to bombard (and I don’t use that expression lightly – it was constant!) us with tales of increasing costs. Next, food prices started to creep up due to shortages of key ingredients and the increase in fuel costs for manufacturing and distribution. What a very sad state of affairs, but one the media revelled in.
With complete disregard for the market and damage these news “stories” would create, they pounded us day after day. You’ll be paying £1milliom for a litre of petrol, granny won’t be able to afford a blanket never mind putting the heating on. The general public responded in the only way the British public knows how to. . . they bought any electric blankets and air fryers they could lay their hands on – we are a very strange little nation aren’t we? Air fryers? Really? Mrs B has a cupboard in our utility room full of the latest “must have” kitchen gadgets. . .from bread makers to blenders and silicone cupcake trays, I put my foot down on the air fryer, and so far Mason JB is a Ninja Free zone! Night after night, morning after morning this is all we got. Consumers started to respond by “cutting back”. We found customers started to shop differently. When previously they may order around 20 weeks pregnant they simply shifted this to closer to their due date. We didn’t see them downgrade their purchases and we didn’t see a huge rush for more budget items. Customers continued to shop mid to high end but they did so over a shorter period of time.
As we approached the year end and Christmas started to loom I think we all had a little worry about how we’d all do. Christmas is notoriously a quieter time in our trade so this year we all thought it may get a little scary. To my surprise we managed to have the best December ever! But why? I think it’s because your average John and Jane on the street started Christmas shopping, buying a few extra bags of crisps and bottles of plonk and realised their fuel bills had gone up, but they could still manage. I’m not saying fuel costs haven’t changed – oh boy they’ve changed. Because I moved home in June I’m not on a fixed tariff anymore and as a result the variable tariff with Eon Next is loopy. . .but do you know what? we’ve just got on with it. And I think this is the way we Brits We ended 2022 with the best week we’ve ever had and since then the trend seems to be continuing. Two weeks in to 2023 and so far I have to say it feels like we’ve turned a corner. Customers seem more relaxed and likely to spend. It would appear consumer confidence is on the rise and that puts us all in a fantastic position for the next twelve months.
seem to deal with everything. The media whip us all up into a frenzied panic – we respond by buying everything in Tesco so the shelves are empty then we emerge from our hiding holes and think “actually this isn’t that bad”.
After a nice break at Christmas where I’d love to say I drank too much beer and ate too much food (I won’t say this because let’s be honest what is too much beer?) it was time to re-open. Fingers crossed you all had the same level of customers piling through your door as we did. We ended 2022 with the best week we’ve ever had and since then the trend seems to be continuing. Two weeks in to 2023 and so far I have to say it feels like we’ve turned a corner. Customers seem more relaxed and likely to spend. It would appear consumer confidence is on the rise and that puts us all in a fantastic position for the next twelve months. Ok, so I won’t be rushing out to make any major business decisions in the short term but I think if we, as an industry can simply consolidate our business during the course of the year, get a good solid and consistent twelve months trading under our belts 2024 could be a great time to implement longer term plans and finally take a breather. Growth is wonderful but remember you can’t grow every year. Sometimes business contracts, this is normal given the economic climate. Just ensure you maintain margin and you come out the other side ready. If 2023 can see us all at least stand still next year we can focus on growing and getting back to what we all do best (which for me is drinking).
Until next time, I wish you all a busy January and I’ll see you all in February – as usual please refrain from sending Valentine Day cards as Mrs B does get a little jealous.
