Lessons for Mars: What Terran Geo-strategy implies for Martian Colonization What does International Relations theory tell us about the colonization of Mars? Can we know if Mars will seek independence? In ‘The Tragedy of Great Power Politics’ the foundational principles of that hardest of IR schools, ‘Offensive Realism,’ are laid out by Mearsheimer. Peace between Terran states can never be assured because:
The world lacks a central authority Every state has some military power Intentions can never be verified
Knowing that no central power will adjudicate justice for us, states act to ward off predation by becoming the ‘baddest dude on the block.’ Is space any different? Does the colonization of Mars bring into being a central authority that can adjudicate justice for state actors? On the contrary it expands the preconditions for a Central Authority from one that has the capacity to militarily punish states across the Earth into one that can punish across two worlds thus placing it even further out of reach. Does the colonization of Mars resolve the problem of armed states? Not at all, Martian colonization may start as an unarmed seed of a particular Terran state but as Mars’ equipment, capabilities and scale increase the nature of Mars’ technological capacities become increasingly dual use. An example: supposing a Martian city eventually grows in scale that it becomes efficient to to invest in an orbital/Lagrange point defense array capable of defending against small and medium scale asteroidal impacts. How much much technical wrangling would be required for Mars based engineers to turn such technology into a missile defense/invasion fleet defense array? Similarly, a functional Mars will require nuclear reactors. Under which conditions will Terran authorities be completely calm about the growing Martian nuclear capabilities? Because intentions are never verifiable all strategic competition must be predicated upon what other are able to do not what we predict they will do. Will Martian colonization solve this problem? No, intentions under these conditions will remain unverifiable. In fact, as Martian and Terran culture diverge very likely human suspicions will multiply, if not towards Mars’ mother country then towards Terran competitors to Mars’ mother country. What, then, are the necessary conditions that Martian strategists will need to consider before making a play for complete political independence? The first necessary prerequisite is material independence. Without full material independence a Martian political polity can simply be starve into submission. Therefore Martian strategists should consider material autonomy the first priority. Any resource that Mars depends on Earth to deliver will be used as a weapon to stifle political independence. Conversely any resource that derives exclusively from Mars and that can be denied to Earth will be a bargaining chip for political independence. As a Martian colony will already be seeking to minimize reliance on shipments from earth for efficiency reasons liberating Mars from Terran dependency as Mars increases in technological capability and volume should be achievable. The second necessary prerequisite for an independent Mars is defense. ‘He who can destroy a thing, controls a thing.’ Therefore without a defense perimeter Mars cannot achieve political independence. A full Martian defense industry is not necessary. Similar to the way that the British navy allowed the Empire to de-prioritize land forces and re-route those resources to other priorities, a successful Martian defense perimeter that can repel or destroy incoming fires, vessels, orbital
threats and landing craft allows a Martian polity to do without an army except for the prevention of internal dissension and independence movements. The third priority for an independent Mars is resilience. By this I mean that the Mars colony must have developed its systems to a degree that damage does not run away into further damage the way a crack in a dam creates a positive feedback loop leading to catastrophic failures. Martian systems must be built in such away that damage must ‘naturally’ declines, fires go out, water resources naturally conserved, meltdowns rush for failure not criticality. I hope I have made two clear arguments:
Once these three objectives are established a politically independent Mars becomes viable Due to strategic incentives a Martian polity will seek political independence from Earth.