1 The Pykewater Library W. D. S. Pennington Political Contingency History of Probability Bernstein, Peter L. Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. New York, NY: John Wiley and Sons, 1996. Campe, Rudiger. The Game of Probability: Literature and Calculation from Pascal to Kleist. Trans. Ellwood H. Wiggins, Jr. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2012. Crosby, Alfred W. The Measure of Reality: Quantification and Western Society, 1250-1600. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 1997. Daston, Lorraine. Classical Probability in the Enlightenment. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995. Engberg-Pedersen, Anders. Empire of Chance: The Napoleonic Wars and the Disorder of Things. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2015. Gigerenzer, Gerd, et al. The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 1989. Hacking, Ian. The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas About Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference (Second Edition). New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2007. Hacking, Ian. The Taming of Chance. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2015. Hulsman, John C. To Dare More Boldly: The Audacious Story of Political Risk. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2018. Katzenstein, Peter J. and Lucia A. Seybert, Eds. Protean Power: Exploring the Uncertain and Unexpected in World Politics. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2018. Kruger, Lorenz, Gerd Gigerenzer and Mary S. Morgan, Eds. The Probabilistic Revolution: Volume 2: Ideas in the Sciences. Cambridge, MA: Bradford Books/The MIT Press, 1989. Kruger, Lorenz, Lorraine J. Daston and Michael Heidelberger, Eds. The Probabilistic Revolution: Volume I: Ideas in History. Cambridge, MA: Bradford Books/The MIT Press1990. MacKenzie, Donald A. Statistics in Britain, 1865-1930: The Social Construction of Scientific Knowledge. Edinburgh, UK: Edinburgh University Press, 1981. Moore, Peter. The Weather Experiment: The Pioneers Who Sought to See the Future. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2015. Nacol, Emily C. An Age of Risk: Politics and Economy in Early Modern Britain. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016. Porter, Theodore M. The Rise of Statistical Thinking, 1820-1900. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1986. Rabins, Peter V. The Why of Things: Causality in Science, Medicine and Life. New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 2013. Shapiro, Ian and Sonu Bedi, Eds. Political Contingency: Studying the Unexpected, the Accidental, and the Unforeseen. New York, NY: New York University Press, 2009.
2 Silver, Nate. The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t. New York, NY: Penguin Press, 2012. Stigler, Stephen M. The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty Before 1900. Cambridge, MA: Belknap/Harvard University Press, 2003. Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. Incerto: Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder. New York, NY: Random House, 2016. Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. Incerto: The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms. New York, NY: Random House, 2016. Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. Incerto: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York, NY: Random House, 2016. Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. Incerto: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Second Edition). New York, NY: Random House, 2016. Tetlock, Philip E. and Dan Gardner. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. New York, NY: Broadway Books, 2015.