JULY 2016
“With last month's gain, sales are now up 4.5% from May 2015 and are at their highest annual pace since February 2007.” - Lawrence Yun NAR’s Chief Economist
“Now in its seventh year, the US economic recovery shows signs of slowing in the face of a strong dollar, a weakening global economy, and low energy prices.
But as household growth continues to gain momentum, the housing sector should be an engine of growth.� - Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University
“Demand for homes has been especially strong as more Americans find work, wages edge higher and mortgage rates remain historically low. We still have some ground to make up but housing remains a bright spot in the economy.� - Freddie Mac
4
3.85
3.97 3.92
30 Year Fixed
3.81 3.79
Rate Mortgages from Freddie Mac
3.73 3.71 3.71 3.68 3.66 3.64 3.66 3.65 3.653.64 3.62 3.61 3.6 3.59 3.59 3.58 3.57 3.58 3.5 3.54 3
3.72 3.7
3.55
3.4
1/7 1/14 1/21 1/28 2/4 2/11 2/18 2/25 3/3 3/10 3/17 3/24 3/31 4/7 4/14 4/21 4/28 5/5 5/12 5/19 5/26 6/2 6/9 6/16 6/23 6/30 Freddie Mac 7/2016
Mortgage Rate Projections Quarter
Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac
MBA
NAR
Average of All Four
2016 4Q
3.7
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.00
2017 1Q
3.6
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.08
2017 2Q
3.8
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.28
2017 3Q
3.8
4.6
4.7
N/A
4.37 7/2016
Homeownership is‌ an achievement to be proud of
a dream come true
93%
86% Ipsos
Buying a home is an excellent long-term investment because it is likely to increase in value over time and it is one of the best ways for people to build wealth and assets:
April 2014
April 2015
April 2016 MacArthur Foundation
“The bigger question is whether the housing crash diminished the general appeal of homeownership. The available evidence suggests that it has not.� - Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University
% of Renters Who Prefer to Own 

Increasing
74.2%
68.5%
2015
2016 Federal Reserve Bank of New York
% of Renters Who Plan to Buy
Increasing
48.9%
43.2%
2015
2016 Federal Reserve Bank of New York
“The more sustainable housing markets should allow for positive feedback loops in local economies, with strengthening job and income gains for residential real
estate agents, mortgage bankers and home improvement workers.� - David Berson, Nationwide's SVP & Chief Economist
Pending Home Sales
2016
over the last 18 months
2015
2014 January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Buyer Traffic By State
NAR
Seller Traffic By State
NAR
-4.5%
June
-1.9%
-3.8% -1.1% -1.5%
-3.6%
HOUSING SUPPLY Year-Over-Year Last 12 Months -9.6% June
July
August
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
NAR 7/2016 May
“The stock of existing homes for sale declined 1.9 percent last year, to 2.1 million units. Supply stood at 4.8 months, making 2015 the fourth consecutive year that inventories held below the 6.0-month level, the conventional measure of a balanced market.�
- Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University
“Many owners aren’t moving on from their current homes, which is holding back available inventory for both first time and move up buyers. With values on the rise, this could prove to be an ideal time to sell – especially in the hot markets where owners could get more than they expected.” - Bob Walters Quicken Loans Chief Economist
“The primary driver in the increase in sales is more homeowners realizing the equity they've accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize.� - Lawrence Yun Chief Economist NAR
Significant Equity By State
CoreLogic
Positive Equity Share By State
CoreLogic
“The CoreLogic Home Price Index was up 5.5% year over year through the first quarter. If home values rise another 5% uniformly across the U.S., the number of underwater borrowers will fall by another one million during the next year.� - Anand Nallathambi President and CEO of CoreLogic
“Buyers looking for the most expensive homes will find slashed prices, more options and less competition. It's a much different story for entry-level buyers, who will be up against rising prices, low inventory and tough competition, with homes selling over asking price in many of the nation's hottest housing markets.� - Zillow
Number of Homes for Sale 2016 versus 2012 by category 2012 Q1 2016 Q1
Starter Homes
Trade-Up Homes
Premium Homes Trulia
7.9%
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES by category
5.4% 4.0%
Bottom Tier Homes
Middle Tier Homes
Top Tier Homes Zillow
Thinking about the housing crisis that started in 2008, when many people and families defaulted on their mortgages and lost their homes, I think the housing crisis is pretty much over 36
30
23
17
10
March 2013
April 2014
April 2015
April 2016 MacArthur Foundation
How Many Americans “Don’t Know”? The Minimum Credit Score Required
The Maximum Back-End DTI Ratio
The Minimum Down Payment Required
54%
59%
40%
???????????? Fannie Mae
Percentage who believe a 20% down payment is required to purchase a home 50%
48%
40%
Total Population
Among African Americans
Among Hispanics Ipsos
“The high median credit scores are due to many millennials believing they won’t qualify with the score they have - and are waiting to apply for a mortgage until they have the score they think they need.” - Jonas Moe Ellie Mae Senior VP
“Consumers are cautious more than they have been in the past and thus the self-sidelining of cautious/discouraged consumers makes it appear as if credit is tightening. 
 More consumer education such as counseling and financial literacy programs could be as or more successful in raising origination levels than introducing new lending products with lower credit standards.� CoreLogic MarketPulse Report
The average LTV ratio for those applying for a mortgage loan in the last three months by generation‌
89%
Millennials
81%
Generation X
73%
Baby Boomers
68%
Silent Generation CoreLogic
76.0%
Percentage of loan applications in previous 90-day cycle that have closed
73.5%
71.0%
68.5%
66.0%
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sept-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Ellie Mae
Have the market information in visual form and at your fingertips‌
Average Days on the Market By State
NAR
5,600,000
5,500,000
5,400,000
5,300,000
EXISTING Home Sales
5,200,000
5,100,000
5,000,000
4,900,000
4,800,000
4,700,000
4,600,000
4,500,000
4,400,000
Since January 2014
4,300,000
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
NAR 7/2016
5,600,000
EXISTING Home Sales
5,066,667
4,533,333
Since January 2012 4,000,000
Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
NAR 7/2016
EXISTING Home Sales Y-O-Y by region
West
U.S.
Midwest
South
NAR 7/2016 Northeast
Total Home Sales 577
in thousands
527
542
497 451
320
341
January
340
470
359
February
March
2015
April
2016
May Freddie Mac
Existing Home Sales in thousands 2015
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
2016
November
December
Freddie Mac
New Home Sales in thousands 2015
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
2016
November
December
Freddie Mac
New Home Sales Annualized in thousands
Jun-14
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan-15 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan-16 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Census
New Home 
 Sales
33%
% of sales by price range
24%
14% 9%
10% 6%
4% Under $150K
$150-$199K
$200-$299K
$300-$399K
$400-$499K
$500-$749K
Over $750K
Census
New Homes Selling Fast
 (median from completion to sold) 4.0 months 4.0
4.2
4.0
3.9 3.8 3.7
3.7
3.5 3.5 3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.0 2.9
Dec
Jan-15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
2.9
Nov
Dec
Jan-16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Census
113
PENDING Home Sales
108
since 2012
104
99
100 = Historically Healthy Level
95
90
January 2012
January 2013
January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
NAR 7/2016
114
112
110
PENDING Home Sales since 2014
108
106
104
102
100
100 = Historically Healthy Level 98
96
94
92
90
January 2014
January 2015
January 2016 NAR 7/2016
PENDING Home Sales U.S.
West
Midwest
Year-Over-Year By Region Northeast
South
NAR 7/2016
35%
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
10%
7%
January 2012 - Today Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
NAR 7/2016
Home Prices
EXISTING Home Prices Y-O-Y by region
U.S.
Northeast
West
South
Midwest NAR 7/2016
% Change
in Sales from last year by Price Range
-1.6% $0-100K
$100-250K
$250-500K
$500-750K
$750K-1M
$1M NAR 7/2016
Case Shiller 14.0%
10.5%
Year-Over-Year
PRICE CHANGES
7.0%
3.5%
0.0%
June 2012
S&P Case Shiller 7/2016
Case Shiller
13.2% 12.9% 12.4%
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES 20 City Composite
10.8%
9.3%
8.1%
6.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7%
5.6%
5.4% 5.5% 5.4%
5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 4.5%
Jan 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016 Feb Mar Apr
S&P Case Shiller 7/2016
Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price 
 by State
CoreLogic
Appraiser Home Value Opinions Compared to Homeowner Estimates
-1.4
-2
-1.98
-1.87
-1.8
-1.75 -1.95
-1.99
-1.89
-2.17 -2.33
Last 12 Months
-2.65
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-16
Feb
Mar
April
May
Jun
Quicken Loans
HOUSING INVENTORY
Seller Traffic By State
NAR
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE 2011 - Today
January 2011
January 2012
January 2013
January 2014
January 2015
January 2016 NAR 7/2016
Months Inventory of 
 HOMES FOR SALE 5.1
5.0
Last 12 Months
5.1 4.8
4.8
3.9
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
4.4
4.4
Feb
Mar
4.7
4.7
Apr
May
4.0
Jan
NAR 7/2016
Months Inventory of 
 HOMES FOR SALE
6.0
5.6
last 2 years
5.2
4.8
4.3
3.9
3.5
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
NAR 7/2016
-4.5%
June
-1.9%
-3.8% -1.1% -1.5%
-3.6%
HOUSING SUPPLY Year-Over-Year Last 12 Months June
July
August
Sept
-9.6% Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
NAR 7/2016 May
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels JanFebMarAprMay June JulyAugSeptOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMay NAR 7/2016
New Home Inventory months supply
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.3 5
5
5
5
4.9 5
Jan
Feb
Mar
2015
Apr
2016
May
Census
New Home Inventory months supply
5.8
Last 12 Months
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.4 5.3 5.2
5.2
5.2
4.9
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Census
BUYER
 DEMAND
Buyer Traffic By State
NAR
Foot Traffic
Last 12 Months
indicator of future sales
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January 2016
February
March
April
May
NAR 7/2016
Foot Traffic indicator of future sales
January 2015
February
March
April
May
2015
June
July
August
September
October
November
2016
December
NAR 7/2016
Foot Traffic indicator of future sales
Jul 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016 NAR 7/2016
INTEREST RATES
4
3.85
3.97 3.92
30 Year Fixed
3.81 3.79
Rate Mortgages from Freddie Mac
3.73 3.71 3.71 3.68 3.66 3.64 3.66 3.65 3.653.64 3.62 3.61 3.6 3.59 3.59 3.58 3.57 3.58 3.5 3.54 3
3.72 3.7
3.55
3.4
1/7 1/14 1/21 1/28 2/4 2/11 2/18 2/25 3/3 3/10 3/17 3/24 3/31 4/7 4/14 4/21 4/28 5/5 5/12 5/19 5/26 6/2 6/9 6/16 6/23 6/30 Freddie Mac 7/2016
Mortgage Rate Projections Quarter
Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac
MBA
NAR
Average of All Four
2016 4Q
3.7
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
2017 1Q
3.6
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.08
2017 2Q
3.8
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.28
2017 3Q
3.8
4.6
4.7
N/A
4.37 7/2016
Mortgage Rates
2017
Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate
2016
2015
2015 Q1
2015 Q3
2016 Q1
2016 Q3
- Actual - Projected
2017 Q1
2017 Q3 Freddie Mac
Mortgage Credit Availability YES
NO
MAYBE
Mortgage Credit Availability
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association Apr 2013
MBA
900
675
Historic Data for the MORTGAGE CREDIT AVAILABILITY INDEX
450
(a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association)
225
0
June 2004 June 2005 June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 May 2016
MBA
Average Days To Close A Loan Last 12 Months
49 48
49
50
48 47 46
46
46 45
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
44
44
Mar
Apr
May
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
FICO Score 
 Requirements
727
Last 12 months
725 724
724 723
723 722
722
722
721 720 719
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-16
Feb
March
April
May
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
FICO Score Distribution
500-549
550-599
600-649
650-699
54.9%
700-749
750-799
800+
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Average FICO Score for Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type
724 707 686 All Loans
Conventional
FHA
VA All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Average Back End DTI for Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type
40
38
All Loans
Conventional
FHA
VA All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Resources Slide
Slide Title
Link
4
Lawrence Yun Quote
http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2016/06/existing-home-sales-grow-18-percent-in-may-highest-pace-in-over-nine-years
5,11,19
JCHS Harvard Quote
http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/jchs_2016_state_of_the_nations_housing_lowres.pdf
6
Freddie Mac Quote
http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20160623_ahead_in_may.html
7, 75
30-Year Fixed Rate
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
8, 76
Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_062016.pdf 
 http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/201606-Outlook-06%2028%2016.pdf https://www.mba.org/Documents/Research/Mtg%20Fin%20Forecast%20Jun%202016.pdf 
 http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2016/embargoes/forecast-06-2016-us-economic-outlook-06-29-2016.pdf
9, 30
Ipsos Survey
https://www08.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/pdf/about/press/2016/HomeownershipSurvey06142016.pdf
10,28
Buying A Home is Good Investment, Is Crisis Over?
https://www.macfound.org/media/files/E-How_Housing_Matters_National_Full_Report.pdf
12, 13
New York Fed Survey
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2016/an160602
14
David Berson Quote
http://www.dsnews.com/news/06-28-2016/housing-market-weathering-ongoing-headwinds
15
Pending Home Sales
http://www.realtor.org
16-17, 39, 61,70
Buyer & Seller Traffic, Avg Days on the Market
http://www.realtor.org/reports/realtors-confidence-index
18
Housing Inventory
http://www.realtor.org
20
Bob Walter Quote, Appraisal Gap
http://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2016/06/14/owners-western-cities-underestimate-value-appraisers-homes/
21
Lawrence Yun Quote
http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2016/06/existing-home-sales-grow-18-percent-in-may-highest-pace-in-over-nine-years
22-23, 24
CoreLogic Equity Report
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/homeowner-equity-report.aspx#
25,27
Zillow Quote
http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2016-06-24-Entry-Level-Prices-Continue-to-Soar-while-Top-of-the-Market-Stabilizes
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Resources Slide
Slide Title
Link
26
Number of Homes For Sale
http://www.trulia.com/blog/trends/inventory-2q2016/
31
Jonas Moe Quote
NAREE 50th Annual Real Estate Journalism Conference
32
CoreLogic MarketPulse
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse-report.aspx#
34
CoreLogic LTV by Generation
http://www.corelogic.com/blog/authors/archana-pradhan/2016/06/comparing-mortgage-credit-variables-by-applicantage.aspx
40-42,52, 54-55
Existing Home Sales Report
http://www.realtor.org/
43-45
Freddie Mac Home Sales
http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20160623_ahead_in_may.html
46-48,67-68
New Home Sales, Inventory
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
49-51
Pending Home Sales Report
http://www.realtor.org/
56-57
Case Shiller Price Index
https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/367344_cshomeprice-release-0628.pdf
58
Forecasted Price Changes
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx#
62-66
Housing Inventory
http://www.realtor.org
71-73
Foot Traffic
http://www.realtor.org
77
Freddie Mac Projections
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
79-80
Mortgage Credit Availability
https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/forecasts-data-and-reports/single-family-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index
35, 81-85
Ellie Mae Report
http://www.elliemae.com/origination-insight-reports/Ellie_Mae_OIR_MAY2016.pdf
89-90
Ipsos Study Graphics
https://www08.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/pdf/about/press/2016/HomeownershipSurvey06142016.pdf
93
NAHB Graphic
http://www.nahb.org/en/research/housing-economics/housings-economic-impact/impact-of-home-building-and-remodeling-on-the-u-s--economy.aspx
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
93%
of Americans believe that homeownership is an achievement to be proud of
Ipsos
86% of Americans believe that homeownership is a dream come true
Ipsos
DO YOU KNOW? Percentage of Consumers Who The Said They “Don’t Know” Minimum The Minimum Credit Score Required
Down Payment Required
40% 54%
The Maximum Back-End DTI Ratio
59%
Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae Requirements Minimum % Down Payment Required
3% Minimum Credit Score Required
620 Maximum Back-End DTI Ratio
45%
*
*up to 50% with compensating factors
1,759
FULL TIME *
for every 1,000 Single-family Homes Built in the U.S. 367
377 212 56
Construction
Trade, transportation & warehousing
180
24 Real Estate
* Full-time equivalent jobs = enough work to keep one worker employed full-time for a year
Other
National Association of Home Builders
JULY 2016