Monthly Indicators October 2015
Quick Facts
Transitory periods in the market are common this time of year, and after a persistent period of steady year-over-year climbs in sales metrics, recent low national numbers have not fulfilled what many predicted. But on a positive note, jobless claims have also been at low levels, coming in as the lowest number since 1973. As always, every market and situation is unique, so some numbers seen in national trends may not always line up with local markets. New Listings were up 5.4 percent to 492. Pending Sales increased 13.7 percent to 324. Inventory shrank 13.1 percent to 2,293 units. Prices moved higher as Median Sales Price was up 1.2 percent to $284,968. Days on Market decreased 17.2 percent to 96 days. Months Supply of Inventory was down 25.8 percent to 6.6 months, indicating that demand increased relative to supply. Interest rates are an area to pay attention to as rate hikes are widely expected before the year ends. The Federal Reserve Bank has skipped two opportunities to raise rates this fall, but the final meeting in December will likely include a minor rate hike. Although we are headed into a slower time of year, as housing activity goes, there are still many nuggets of optimism to mine from monthly figures.
- 4.2%
+ 1.2%
- 13.1%
One-Year Change in Closed Sales
One-Year Change in Median Sales Price
One-Year Change in Months Supply
A research tool provided by the Hilton Head Association of REALTORS速 Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days on Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Current as of November 10, 2015. Data is Copyright 息 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS速 and South Carolina REALTORS速. Powered by 10K. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Historical Sparkbars
Key Metrics
10-2014
10-2015
Percent Change
New Listings
467
492
+ 5.4%
4,895
5,084
+ 3.9%
Pending Sales
285
324
+ 13.7%
3,069
3,661
+ 19.3%
Closed Sales
330
316
- 4.2%
3,006
3,428
+ 14.0%
Days on Market
116
96
- 17.2%
111
108
- 2.7%
Median Sales Price
$281,483
$284,968
+ 1.2%
$254,500
$275,000
+ 8.1%
Average Sales Price
$339,338
$350,106
+ 3.2%
$340,249
$351,388
+ 3.3%
Pct. of List Price Received
95.6%
95.8%
+ 0.2%
95.4%
95.7%
+ 0.3%
Housing Affordability Index
86
87
+ 1.2%
96
90
- 6.3%
Inventory of Homes for Sale
2,638
2,293
- 13.1%
--
--
--
Months Supply of Inventory
8.9
6.6
- 25.8%
--
--
--
10-2013
10-2014
YTD 2014 YTD 2015
Percent Change
10-2015
Current as of November 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
October
New Listings
Year to Date
506
492
467
4,835
5,084
4,895
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 17.9%
- 7.7%
+ 5.4%
+ 3.5%
+ 1.2%
+ 3.9%
Prior Year
Percent Change
November 2014
323
375
-13.9%
December 2014
292
274
+6.6%
January 2015
469
494
-5.1%
February 2015
480
481
-0.2%
March 2015
673
615
+9.4%
April 2015
555
622
-10.8%
May 2015
505
441
+14.5%
June 2015
474
458
+3.5%
July 2015
465
437
+6.4%
August 2015
471
407
+15.7%
September 2015
500
473
+5.7%
October 2015
492
467
+5.4%
12-Month Avg
475
462
+2.8%
Historical New Listings by Month 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of November 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month.
October
Year to Date
Pending Sales
324
319
3,661 3,282
285
3,069
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 2.9%
- 10.7%
+ 13.7%
+ 11.8%
- 6.5%
+ 19.3%
Prior Year
Percent Change
November 2014
257
268
-4.1%
December 2014
243
202
+20.3%
January 2015
314
251
+25.1%
February 2015
310
293
+5.8%
March 2015
377
344
+9.6%
April 2015
366
347
+5.5%
May 2015
378
333
+13.5%
June 2015
465
337
+38.0%
July 2015
451
317
+42.3%
August 2015
358
273
+31.1%
September 2015
318
289
+10.0%
October 2015
324
285
+13.7%
12-Month Avg
347
295
+17.6%
Historical Pending Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of November 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.
October
Closed Sales
Year to Date 330
327
316 3,170
3,428 3,006
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 12.4%
+ 0.9%
- 4.2%
+ 12.7%
- 5.2%
+ 14.0%
Prior Year
Percent Change
November 2014
254
286
-11.2%
December 2014
311
293
+6.1%
January 2015
227
243
-6.6%
February 2015
245
192
+27.6%
March 2015
339
273
+24.2%
April 2015
334
323
+3.4%
May 2015
388
333
+16.5%
June 2015
421
354
+18.9%
July 2015
428
345
+24.1%
August 2015
377
340
+10.9%
September 2015
353
273
+29.3%
October 2015
316
330
-4.2%
12-Month Avg
333
299
+11.4%
Historical Closed Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100
0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of November 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
October
Days on Market
Year to Date 119
116
115
111
108
96
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
- 11.5%
+ 0.9%
- 17.2%
- 7.8%
- 6.7%
- 2.7%
Prior Year
Percent Change
122
-1.6%
November 2014
120
December 2014
135
98
+37.8%
January 2015
115
105
+9.5%
February 2015
117
110
+6.4%
March 2015
114
118
-3.4%
April 2015
114
103
+10.7%
May 2015
112
106
+5.7%
June 2015
110
107
+2.8%
July 2015
101
103
-1.9%
August 2015
114
126
-9.5%
September 2015
91
111
-18.0%
October 2015
96
116
-17.2%
12-Month Avg*
111
111
0.0%
* Average Days on Market of all properties from November 2014 through October 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of November 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 6
Median Sales Price Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
October
Median Sales Price
Year to Date $281,483
$284,968
$275,000
$260,000
$251,805
$254,500
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 12.2%
+ 8.3%
+ 1.2%
+ 12.4%
+ 1.1%
+ 8.1%
Prior Year
Percent Change
November 2014
$268,950
$258,500
+4.0%
December 2014
$275,000
$250,000
+10.0%
January 2015
$236,000
$218,000
+8.3%
February 2015
$264,500
$247,945
+6.7%
March 2015
$250,000
$255,000
-2.0%
April 2015
$277,450
$273,465
+1.5%
May 2015
$278,415
$251,540
+10.7%
June 2015
$289,950
$283,245
+2.4%
July 2015
$275,000
$245,000
+12.2%
August 2015
$284,500
$255,458
+11.4%
September 2015
$283,700
$240,000
+18.2%
October 2015
$284,968
$281,483
+1.2%
12-Month Med*
$275,000
$254,000
+8.3%
* Median Sales Price of all properties from November 2014 through October 2015. This is not the median of the individual figures above.
Historical Median Sales Price by Month $500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of November 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
October
$329,183
Avg. Sales Price
Year to Date $339,338
$350,106
$335,361
$340,249
$351,388
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
- 4.0%
+ 3.1%
+ 3.2%
+ 5.8%
+ 1.5%
+ 3.3%
Prior Year
Percent Change
+5.4%
November 2014
$359,992
$341,500
December 2014
$355,477
$340,932
+4.3%
January 2015
$334,394
$286,670
+16.6%
February 2015
$339,738
$331,298
+2.5%
March 2015
$348,378
$343,270
+1.5%
April 2015
$379,902
$340,691
+11.5%
May 2015
$363,302
$324,120
+12.1%
June 2015
$343,708
$381,652
-9.9%
July 2015
$340,562
$324,040
+5.1%
August 2015
$361,016
$351,048
+2.8%
September 2015
$346,370
$364,815
-5.1%
October 2015
$350,106
$339,338
+3.2%
12-Month Avg*
$351,912
$339,115
+3.8%
* Avg. Sales Price of all properties from November 2014 through October 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Average Sales Price by Month $600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of November 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its most recent list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
October
95.7%
Pct. of List Price Received
Year to Date
95.8%
95.6%
95.5%
95.4%
95.7%
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 0.7%
- 0.1%
+ 0.2%
+ 1.1%
- 0.1%
+ 0.3%
Prior Year
Percent Change
November 2014
95.4%
94.7%
+0.7%
December 2014
95.5%
94.9%
+0.6%
January 2015
95.3%
94.9%
+0.4%
February 2015
95.6%
95.5%
+0.1%
March 2015
95.2%
95.1%
+0.1%
April 2015
95.1%
95.9%
-0.8%
May 2015
95.8%
94.9%
+0.9%
June 2015
95.9%
95.9%
0.0%
July 2015
96.1%
95.6%
+0.5%
August 2015
95.5%
94.9%
+0.6%
September 2015
96.0%
95.2%
+0.8%
October 2015
95.8%
95.6%
+0.2%
12-Month Avg*
95.6%
95.3%
+0.3%
* Average Pct. of List Price Received for all properties from November 2014 through October 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Percent of List Price Received by Month 99.0% 98.0% 97.0% 96.0% 95.0% 94.0% 93.0% 92.0% 91.0% 90.0% 89.0% 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of November 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
October
Affordability Index
Year to Date
November 2014
87
86
93
96
90
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
- 19.6%
- 4.4%
+ 1.2%
- 19.1%
+ 3.2%
- 6.3%
Percent Change
96
-5.2%
89
95
-6.3%
January 2015
106
106
0.0%
February 2015
95
95
0.0%
March 2015
99
93
+6.5%
April 2015
90
86
+4.7%
May 2015
90
96
-6.3%
June 2015
85
85
0.0%
July 2015
88
98
-10.2%
August 2015
86
95
-9.5%
September 2015
87
100
-13.0%
October 2015
87
86
+1.2%
12-Month Avg
91
94
-3.4%
December 2014
90
91
Prior Year
Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month 140
120
100
80
60
40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of November 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
Homes for Sale
October 2,638
2,438
2,293
- 13.1%
- 9.3% 2013
2014
2015
- 9.3%
+ 8.2%
- 13.1%
Prior Year
Percent Change
November 2014
2,551
2,386
+6.9%
December 2014
2,345
2,284
+2.7%
January 2015
2,306
2,369
-2.7%
February 2015
2,350
2,438
-3.6%
March 2015
2,478
2,587
-4.2%
April 2015
2,530
2,724
-7.1%
May 2015
2,521
2,685
-6.1%
June 2015
2,378
2,642
-10.0%
July 2015
2,260
2,616
-13.6%
August 2015
2,230
2,600
-14.2%
September 2015
2,272
2,627
-13.5%
October 2015
2,293
2,638
-13.1%
12-Month Avg*
2,376
2,633
-9.7%
* Homes for Sale for all properties from November 2014 through October 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale by Month 5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of November 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
Months Supply
October 8.9 7.8 6.6
2013
2014
2015
- 17.9%
+ 14.1%
- 25.8%
Prior Year
Percent Change
November 2014
8.7
7.6
+14.5%
December 2014
7.9
7.3
+8.2%
January 2015
7.6
7.7
-1.3%
February 2015
7.7
8.0
-3.8%
March 2015
8.1
8.4
-3.6%
April 2015
8.2
8.8
-6.8%
May 2015
8.1
8.8
-8.0%
June 2015
7.4
8.6
-14.0%
July 2015
6.8
8.7
-21.8%
August 2015
6.5
8.7
-25.3%
September 2015
6.6
8.8
-25.0%
October 2015
6.6
8.9
-25.8%
12-Month Avg*
7.5
8.4
-10.7%
* Months Supply for all properties from November 2014 through October 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month 30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of November 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 12