Monthly Indicators November 2014 With 2015 near, some are pontificating about a potential change in interest rates. With virtually no inflation, rates will likely remain low for most of 2015 but could flirt with 5.0 percent toward the end of next year. Construction permits and housing starts have upward momentum, which is news in some areas but familiar in others. Prices should continue their ascent but at a tempered pace compared to recent years, which helps preserve affordability for first-time buyers. New Listings were down 15.2 percent to 318. Pending Sales increased 2.6 percent to 276. Inventory grew 3.6 percent to 2,469 units. Prices moved higher as Median Sales Price was up 1.5 percent to $262,500. Days on Market decreased 9.0 percent to 111 days. Months Supply of Inventory was up 9.2 percent to 8.3 months, indicating that supply increased relative to demand. It has largely been another recovery year in 2014, yet mortgage credit and student debt remain obstacles even as the U.S. leads the global economy toward recovery. As this recovery matures, many metrics are approaching a healthy balancing point. Rates have remained much lower than most forecasters expected, and inventory levels finally started rising in most areas as sellers generally listed more properties as a result of stronger prices. Job growth should continue and wage growth is expected to pick up.
Quick Facts - 19.2%
+ 1.5%
+ 3.6%
One-Year Change in Closed Sales
One-Year Change in Median Sales Price
One-Year Change in Months Supply
A research tool provided by the Hilton Head Association of REALTORS速 Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days on Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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Current as of December 11, 2014. Data is Copyright 息 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS速 and South Carolina REALTORS速. Powered by 10K. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Key Metrics
Historical Sparkbars
11-2013
11-2014
Percent Change
New Listings
375
318
- 15.2%
5,210
5,213
+ 0.1%
Pending Sales
269
276
+ 2.6%
3,553
3,377
- 5.0%
Closed Sales
286
231
- 19.2%
3,456
3,223
- 6.7%
Days on Market
122
111
- 9.0%
119
111
- 6.7%
Median Sales Price
$258,500
$262,500
+ 1.5%
$252,000
$255,000
+ 1.2%
Average Sales Price
$341,500
$355,045
+ 4.0%
$335,869
$341,377
+ 1.6%
Pct. of List Price Received
94.7%
95.4%
+ 0.7%
95.4%
95.4%
0.0%
Housing Affordability Index
96
93
- 3.1%
99
96
- 3.0%
Inventory of Homes for Sale
2,383
2,469
+ 3.6%
--
--
--
Months Supply of Inventory
7.6
8.3
+ 9.2%
--
--
--
11-2012
11-2013
YTD 2013 YTD 2014
Percent Change
11-2014
Current as of December 11, 2014. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
November
New Listings
Year to Date 375
367
5,038
318
5,210
5,213
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
- 1.6%
+ 2.2%
- 15.2%
+ 0.4%
+ 3.4%
+ 0.1%
Prior Year
Percent Change
December 2013
274
283
-3.2%
January 2014
494
508
-2.8%
February 2014
481
515
-6.6%
March 2014
615
565
+8.8%
April 2014
622
523
+18.9%
May 2014
442
451
-2.0%
June 2014
458
429
+6.8%
July 2014
437
449
-2.7%
August 2014
407
454
-10.4%
September 2014
473
435
+8.7%
October 2014
466
506
-7.9%
November 2014
318
375
-15.2%
12-Month Avg
457
458
-0.1%
Historical New Listings by Month 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of December 11, 2014. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month.
November
Year to Date
271
276
269
Pending Sales
3,553 3,207
3,377
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
+ 20.4%
- 0.7%
+ 2.6%
+ 18.0%
+ 10.8%
- 5.0%
Prior Year
Percent Change
December 2013
203
210
-3.3%
January 2014
251
299
-16.1%
February 2014
296
319
-7.2%
March 2014
346
326
+6.1%
April 2014
347
345
+0.6%
May 2014
333
349
-4.6%
June 2014
340
350
-2.9%
July 2014
322
375
-14.1%
August 2014
274
302
-9.3%
September 2014
297
300
-1.0%
October 2014
295
319
-7.5%
November 2014
276
269
+2.6%
12-Month Avg
298
314
-4.9%
Historical Pending Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of December 11, 2014. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.
November
Closed Sales
Year to Date
314
3,456
286
3,128
3,223
231
2012
+ 45.4%
2013
- 8.9%
2014
- 19.2%
2012
2013
2014
+ 18.5%
+ 10.5%
- 6.7%
Prior Year
Percent Change
+12.3%
December 2013
293
261
January 2014
243
228
+6.6%
February 2014
192
230
-16.5%
March 2014
273
322
-15.2%
April 2014
323
308
+4.9%
May 2014
332
360
-7.8%
June 2014
354
354
0.0%
July 2014
345
351
-1.7%
August 2014
339
385
-11.9%
September 2014
270
305
-11.5%
October 2014
321
327
-1.8%
November 2014
231
286
-19.2%
12-Month Avg
293
310
-5.4%
Historical Closed Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100
0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of December 11, 2014. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
November
Days on Market
Year to Date
Prior Year
Percent Change
98
115
-14.8%
January 2014
105
129
-18.6%
February 2014
110
123
-10.6%
March 2014
118
121
-2.5%
April 2014
103
123
-16.3%
May 2014
106
121
-12.4%
June 2014
107
119
-10.1%
July 2014
103
123
-16.3%
August 2014
125
111
+12.6%
September 2014
112
105
+6.7%
October 2014
116
115
+0.9%
November 2014
111
122
-9.0%
12-Month Avg* Avg
110
119
-7.6%
December 2013
128
122
121
111
119
111
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
- 6.9%
+ 0.8%
- 9.0%
- 7.9%
- 7.0%
- 6.7% * Average Days on Market of all properties from December 2013 through November 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of December 11, 2014. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 6
Median Sales Price Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
November
Median Sales Price
Year to Date $258,500
$262,500
$252,000
$230,000
$255,000
$225,000
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
+ 2.7%
+ 12.4%
+ 1.5%
0.0%
+ 12.0%
+ 1.2%
Prior Year
Percent Change
+6.4%
December 2013
$250,000
$235,000
January 2014
$218,000
$240,500
-9.4%
February 2014
$247,945
$227,408
+9.0%
March 2014
$255,000
$223,500
+14.1%
April 2014
$273,465
$261,230
+4.7%
May 2014
$250,915
$274,220
-8.5%
June 2014
$283,245
$252,500
+12.2%
July 2014
$245,000
$298,708
-18.0%
August 2014
$255,000
$260,050
-1.9%
September 2014
$237,943
$233,765
+1.8%
October 2014
$282,965
$260,000
+8.8%
November 2014
$262,500
$258,500
+1.5%
12-Month Med* Med
$254,950
$250,000
+2.0%
* Median Sales Price of all properties from December 2013 through November 2014. This is not the median of the individual figures above.
Historical Median Sales Price by Month $500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of December 11, 2014. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
November
Avg. Sales Price
Year to Date $341,500
$355,045 $314,706
$293,659
$335,869
$341,377
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
- 6.8%
+ 16.3%
+ 4.0%
- 1.9%
+ 6.7%
+ 1.6%
Prior Year
Percent Change
+8.0%
December 2013
$340,932
$315,821
January 2014
$286,670
$311,311
-7.9%
February 2014
$331,298
$291,012
+13.8%
March 2014
$343,270
$302,486
+13.5%
April 2014
$340,691
$356,420
-4.4%
May 2014
$324,223
$367,301
-11.7%
June 2014
$381,652
$333,902
+14.3%
July 2014
$323,659
$358,318
-9.7%
August 2014
$350,862
$345,493
+1.6%
September 2014
$364,101
$331,741
+9.8%
October 2014
$341,303
$329,183
+3.7%
November 2014
$355,045
$341,500
+4.0%
12-Month Avg* Avg
$340,309
$332,041
+2.5%
* Avg. Sales Price of all properties from December 2013 through November 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical $ Volume of Closed Sales (in millions) by Month $600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of December 11, 2014. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its most recent list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
November
95.4%
Pct. of List Price Received
Year to Date
94.7%
95.4%
94.6%
95.4%
95.4%
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
+ 2.0%
- 0.7%
+ 0.7%
+ 0.9%
+ 0.8%
0.0%
Prior Year
Percent Change
-0.3%
December 2013
94.9%
95.2%
January 2014
94.9%
95.3%
-0.4%
February 2014
95.5%
95.3%
+0.2%
March 2014
95.1%
96.0%
-0.9%
April 2014
95.9%
95.2%
+0.7%
May 2014
94.9%
95.8%
-0.9%
June 2014
95.9%
95.3%
+0.6%
July 2014
95.5%
95.1%
+0.4%
August 2014
94.9%
95.5%
-0.6%
September 2014
95.2%
95.5%
-0.3%
October 2014
95.6%
95.7%
-0.1%
November 2014
95.4%
94.7%
+0.7%
12-Month Avg* Avg
95.3%
95.4%
-0.1%
* Average Pct. of List Price Received for all properties from December 2013 through November 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Percent of List Price Received by Month 99.0% 98.0% 97.0% 96.0% 95.0% 94.0% 93.0% 92.0% 91.0% 90.0% 89.0% 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of December 11, 2014. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
November
Affordability Index
Year to Date
December 2013
113 96
115
93
99
96
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
- 15.0%
- 3.1%
+ 8.5%
- 13.9%
- 3.0%
Percent Change
112
-15.2%
January 2014
106
107
-0.9%
February 2014
95
111
-14.4%
March 2014
93
112
-17.0%
April 2014
86
98
-12.2%
May 2014
96
90
+6.7%
June 2014
85
92
-7.6%
July 2014
98
79
+24.1%
August 2014
95
89
+6.7%
101
101
0.0%
October 2014
86
90
-4.4%
November 2014
93
96
-3.1%
12-Month Avg
94
98
-4.1%
September 2014
+ 5.6%
95
Prior Year
Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month 140
120
100
80
60
40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of December 11, 2014. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
Homes for Sale
November 2,630
2,469
2,383
+ 3.6%
- 13.2% 2012
2013
2014
- 13.2% %
- 9.4%
+ 3.6%
Prior Year
Percent Change
December 2013
2,280
2,467
-7.6%
January 2014
2,365
2,496
-5.2%
February 2014
2,431
2,560
-5.0%
March 2014
2,578
2,657
-3.0%
April 2014
2,715
2,696
+0.7%
May 2014
2,679
2,638
+1.6%
June 2014
2,633
2,565
+2.7%
July 2014
2,602
2,480
+4.9%
August 2014
2,585
2,470
+4.7%
September 2014
2,599
2,423
+7.3%
October 2014
2,598
2,436
+6.7%
November 2014
2,469
2,383
+3.6%
12-Month Avg* Avg
2,545
2,410
+5.6%
* Homes for Sale for all properties from December 2013 through November 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale by Month 5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of December 11, 2014. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
Months Supply
November 9.2 8.3
7.6
2012
2013
2014
- 27.0%
- 17.4%
+ 9.2%
Prior Year
Percent Change
December 2013
7.3
8.7
-16.1%
January 2014
7.7
8.6
-10.5%
February 2014
7.9
8.7
-9.2%
March 2014
8.3
9.0
-7.8%
April 2014
8.8
9.2
-4.3%
May 2014
8.7
8.9
-2.2%
June 2014
8.6
8.5
+1.2%
July 2014
8.6
8.0
+7.5%
August 2014
8.6
8.0
+7.5%
September 2014
8.7
7.7
+13.0%
October 2014
8.7
7.8
+11.5%
November 2014
8.3
7.6
+9.2%
12-Month Avg* Avg
8.3
8.4
-1.2%
* Months Supply for all properties from December 2013 through November 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month 30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of December 11, 2014. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 12