Monthly Indicators December 2014
It has been another recovery year in 2014 but not the same as 2013. With a broad pattern of rising prices and stable to improving inventory, the market has shifted from being drastically undersupplied to approaching equilibrium. Price gains are still positive but less robust than last year. The metrics to watch in 2015 include days on market, percent of list price received and absorption rates, as these can offer deeper and more meaningful insights into the future direction of housing. New Listings were up 5.1 percent to 288. Pending Sales increased 29.1 percent to 262. Inventory grew 0.2 percent to 2,287 units. Prices moved higher as Median Sales Price was up 10.0 percent to $275,000. Days on Market increased 37.8 percent to 135 days. Months Supply of Inventory was up 4.1 percent to 7.6 months, indicating that supply increased relative to demand. Interest rates remained lower than anyone expected for the entire year. That trend snowballed with solid and accelerating private job growth to empower more consumers to buy homes. This coupled nicely on the governmental side with mortgage debt forgiveness and interest deduction preservation. Student loan debt, sluggish wage growth and a lack of sufficient mortgage liquidity still remain hurdles to greater recovery.
Quick Facts + 4.1%
+ 10.0%
+ 0.2%
One-Year Change in Closed Sales
One-Year Change in Median Sales Price
One-Year Change in Months Supply
A research tool provided by the Hilton Head Association of REALTORS速 Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days on Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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Current as of January 10, 2015. Data is Copyright 息 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS速 and South Carolina REALTORS速. Powered by 10K. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Key Metrics
Historical Sparkbars
12-2013
12-2014
Percent Change
New Listings
274
288
+ 5.1%
5,484
5,507
+ 0.4%
Pending Sales
203
262
+ 29.1%
3,753
3,608
- 3.9%
Closed Sales
293
305
+ 4.1%
3,749
3,563
- 5.0%
Days on Market
98
135
+ 37.8%
117
113
- 3.4%
Median Sales Price
$250,000
$275,000
+ 10.0%
$251,609
$257,500
+ 2.3%
Average Sales Price
$340,932
$356,103
+ 4.4%
$336,265
$343,073
+ 2.0%
Pct. of List Price Received
94.9%
95.5%
+ 0.6%
95.4%
95.4%
0.0%
Housing Affordability Index
95
89
- 6.3%
94
95
+ 1.1%
Inventory of Homes for Sale
2,283
2,287
+ 0.2%
--
--
--
Months Supply of Inventory
7.3
7.6
+ 4.1%
--
--
--
12-2012
12-2013
YTD 2013 YTD 2014
Percent Change
12-2014
Current as of January 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
December
Year to Date
283
2012
- 3.7%
5,321
288
274
2013
2012
2014
- 3.2%
+ 5.1%
+ 0.2%
New Listings
5,484
2013
+ 3.1%
5,507
2014
Prior Year
Percent Change
-2.8%
January 2014
494
508
February 2014
481
515
-6.6%
March 2014
615
565
+8.8%
April 2014
622
523
+18.9%
May 2014
442
451
-2.0%
June 2014
458
429
+6.8%
July 2014
437
449
-2.7%
August 2014
407
454
-10.4%
September 2014
473
435
+8.7%
October 2014
467
506
-7.7%
November 2014
323
375
-13.9%
December 2014
288
274
+5.1%
12-Month Avg
459
457
+0.4%
+ 0.4%
Historical New Listings by Month 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of January 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month.
December
Year to Date 262
210
2012
- 6.3%
3,417
Pending Sales
3,753
3,608
203
2013
- 3.3%
2012
2014
+ 29.1%
+ 16.1%
2013
+ 9.8%
2014
Prior Year
Percent Change
-16.1%
January 2014
251
299
February 2014
296
319
-7.2%
March 2014
346
326
+6.1%
April 2014
347
345
+0.6%
May 2014
333
349
-4.6%
June 2014
339
350
-3.1%
July 2014
320
375
-14.7%
August 2014
273
302
-9.6%
September 2014
289
298
-3.0%
October 2014
289
319
-9.4%
November 2014
263
268
-1.9%
December 2014
262
203
+29.1%
12-Month Avg
301
313
-3.9%
- 3.9%
Historical Pending Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of January 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.
December
Year to Date 305
293
3,389
Closed Sales
3,749
3,563
261
2012
+ 0.4%
2013
2014
+ 4.1%
+ 12.3%
2012
2013
2014
+ 16.9%
+ 10.6%
- 5.0%
Prior Year
Percent Change
January 2014
243
228
+6.6%
February 2014
192
230
-16.5%
March 2014
273
322
-15.2%
April 2014
323
308
+4.9%
May 2014
332
360
-7.8%
June 2014
354
354
0.0%
July 2014
345
351
-1.7%
August 2014
340
385
-11.7%
September 2014
274
305
-10.2%
October 2014
329
327
+0.6%
November 2014
253
286
-11.5%
December 2014
305
293
+4.1%
12-Month Avg
297
312
-5.0%
Historical Closed Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100
0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of January 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
December
Year to Date 127
135
Days on Market
117
113
115 98
2012
- 20.1%
2013
2012
2014
- 14.8%
- 8.6%
+ 37.8%
2013
2014
- 7.9%
- 3.4%
Prior Year
Percent Change
January 2014
105
129
-18.6%
February 2014
110
123
-10.6%
March 2014
118
121
-2.5%
April 2014
103
123
-16.3%
May 2014
106
121
-12.4%
June 2014
107
119
-10.1%
July 2014
103
123
-16.3%
August 2014
126
111
+13.5%
September 2014
111
105
+5.7%
October 2014
115
115
0.0%
November 2014
119
122
-2.5%
December 2014
135
98
+37.8%
12-Month Avg*
113
117
-3.4%
* Average Days on Market of all properties from January 2014 through December 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of January 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 6
Median Sales Price Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
December
Year to Date
Median Sales Price
$275,000 $235,000
2012
+ 2.3%
$251,609
$250,000
$257,500
$225,000
2013
+ 6.4%
2012
2014
+ 10.0%
2013
0.0%
+ 11.8%
2014
Prior Year
Percent Change
-9.4%
January 2014
$218,000
$240,500
February 2014
$247,945
$227,408
+9.0%
March 2014
$255,000
$223,500
+14.1%
April 2014
$273,465
$261,230
+4.7%
May 2014
$250,915
$274,220
-8.5%
June 2014
$283,245
$252,500
+12.2%
July 2014
$245,000
$298,708
-18.0%
August 2014
$255,458
$260,050
-1.8%
September 2014
$241,250
$233,765
+3.2%
October 2014
$280,000
$260,000
+7.7%
November 2014
$272,900
$258,500
+5.6%
December 2014
$275,000
$250,000
+10.0%
12-Month Med*
$257,500
$251,609
+2.3%
+ 2.3%
* Median Sales Price of all properties from January 2014 through December 2014. This is not the median of the individual figures above.
Historical Median Sales Price by Month $500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of January 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
December
$315,821
2012
- 1.2%
Year to Date $340,932
2013
+ 8.0%
$356,103 $314,792
2012
2014
+ 4.4%
- 1.9%
Avg. Sales Price
$336,265
2013
+ 6.8%
$343,073
2014
Prior Year
Percent Change
January 2014
$286,670
$311,311
-7.9%
February 2014
$331,298
$291,012
+13.8%
March 2014
$343,270
$302,486
+13.5%
April 2014
$340,691
$356,420
-4.4%
May 2014
$324,223
$367,301
-11.7%
June 2014
$381,652
$333,902
+14.3%
July 2014
$324,040
$358,318
-9.6%
August 2014
$351,048
$345,493
+1.6%
September 2014
$364,542
$331,741
+9.9%
October 2014
$339,062
$329,183
+3.0%
November 2014
$361,257
$341,500
+5.8%
December 2014
$356,103
$340,932
+4.4%
12-Month Avg*
$341,988
$334,133
+2.4%
+ 2.0%
* Avg. Sales Price of all properties from January 2014 through December 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Average Sales Price by Month $600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of January 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its most recent list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
December
95.2%
2012
+ 1.2%
Year to Date
94.9%
2013
- 0.3%
95.5%
94.6%
2012
2014
+ 0.6%
+ 0.9%
Pct. of List Price Received
95.4%
2013
+ 0.8%
95.4%
2014
Prior Year
Percent Change
January 2014
94.9%
95.3%
-0.4%
February 2014
95.5%
95.3%
+0.2%
March 2014
95.1%
96.0%
-0.9%
April 2014
95.9%
95.2%
+0.7%
May 2014
94.9%
95.8%
-0.9%
June 2014
95.9%
95.3%
+0.6%
July 2014
95.6%
95.1%
+0.5%
August 2014
94.9%
95.5%
-0.6%
September 2014
95.2%
95.5%
-0.3%
October 2014
95.6%
95.7%
-0.1%
November 2014
95.5%
94.7%
+0.8%
December 2014
95.5%
94.9%
+0.6%
12-Month Avg*
95.4%
95.4%
0.0%
0.0%
* Average Pct. of List Price Received for all properties from January 2014 through December 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Percent of List Price Received by Month 99.0% 98.0% 97.0% 96.0% 95.0% 94.0% 93.0% 92.0% 91.0% 90.0% 89.0% 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of January 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
December
Year to Date
Affordability Index
112 95
2012
+ 7.7%
116
89
2013
94
2012
2014
- 15.2%
- 6.3%
+ 9.4%
2013
- 19.0%
95
2014
Prior Year
Percent Change
January 2014
106
107
-0.9%
February 2014
95
111
-14.4%
March 2014
93
112
-17.0%
April 2014
86
98
-12.2%
May 2014
96
90
+6.7%
June 2014
85
92
-7.6%
July 2014
98
79
+24.1%
August 2014
95
89
+6.7%
September 2014
99
101
-2.0%
October 2014
87
90
-3.3%
November 2014
89
96
-7.3%
December 2014
89
95
-6.3%
12-Month Avg
93
97
-3.6%
+ 1.1%
Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month 140
120
100
80
60
40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of January 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
December
Homes for Sale
2,467
2,287
2,283
+ 0.2%
- 13.2% 2012
2013
- 13.2%
2014
- 7.5%
Prior Year
Percent Change
January 2014
2,368
2,496
-5.1%
February 2014
2,434
2,560
-4.9%
March 2014
2,581
2,657
-2.9%
April 2014
2,718
2,696
+0.8%
May 2014
2,682
2,638
+1.7%
June 2014
2,637
2,565
+2.8%
July 2014
2,608
2,480
+5.2%
August 2014
2,592
2,470
+4.9%
September 2014
2,618
2,425
+8.0%
October 2014
2,623
2,438
+7.6%
November 2014
2,524
2,386
+5.8%
December 2014
2,287
2,283
+0.2%
12-Month Avg*
2,556
2,335
+9.5%
+ 0.2%
* Homes for Sale for all properties from January 2014 through December 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale by Month 5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of January 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
December
Months Supply
8.7
7.6
7.3
2012
2013
2014
- 25.0%
- 16.1%
+ 4.1%
Prior Year
Percent Change
January 2014
7.7
8.6
-10.5%
February 2014
7.9
8.7
-9.2%
March 2014
8.4
9.0
-6.7%
April 2014
8.8
9.2
-4.3%
May 2014
8.7
8.9
-2.2%
June 2014
8.6
8.5
+1.2%
July 2014
8.6
8.0
+7.5%
August 2014
8.7
8.0
+8.7%
September 2014
8.8
7.8
+12.8%
October 2014
8.9
7.8
+14.1%
November 2014
8.5
7.6
+11.8%
December 2014
7.6
7.3
+4.1%
12-Month Avg*
8.4
8.3
+1.2%
* Months Supply for all properties from January 2014 through December 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month 30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
Current as of January 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | Click for Cover Page | 12