Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE HILTON HEAD AREA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS速
April 2014
Quick Facts
The public has finally grown used to talk of a real estate market in recovery. With prices going up, people are starting to wonder if a new bubble is forming. Most metropolitan markets are somewhere between recovery and normalization. Supply is still tight but improving in some areas. What housing really needs is further job and wage growth to support healthy demand levels fueled by new household formations. New Listings in the Hilton Head region increased 9.4 percent to 571. Pending Sales were up 3.8 percent to 358. Inventory levels shrank 5.1 percent to 2,703 units. Prices marched higher. The Median Sales Price increased 6.3 percent to $279,500. Days on Market was down 13.8 percent to 105 days. Absorption rates improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 11.4 percent to 8.6 months. April's job growth was above expectations. Growth is likely to accelerate through the year, but the types of jobs being created is also important. We're producing more low-wage jobs as opposed to high-wage jobs. That's not conducive to increasing the number of potential buyers. It also means less disposable income sloshing around. Even so, some local markets may pause but are unlikely to falter thanks to suppressed supply levels and an improving sales mix. Don't confuse temporarily weak demand indicators for stagnation.
+ 1.7%
+ 6.3%
- 5.1%
Change in Closed Sales
Change in Median Sales Price
Change in Inventory
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days On Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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Data is Copyright 息 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS速 and South Carolina REALTORS速. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Key Metrics
Historical Sparklines
New Listings 4-2011
4-2012
4-2013
4-2012
4-2013
4-2012
4-2013
4-2012
4-2013
4-2012
4-2013
4-2012
4-2013
4-2012
4-2013
4-2012
4-2013
4-2012
4-2013
4-2012
4-2013
2,127
+ 0.9%
345
358
+ 3.8%
1,290
1,297
+ 0.5%
303
308
+ 1.7%
1,055
990
- 6.2%
121
105
- 13.8%
123
110
- 10.4%
$263,000
$279,500
+ 6.3%
$239,000
$250,000
+ 4.6%
$359,394
$348,056
- 3.2%
$321,674
$333,182
+ 3.6%
95.1%
96.0%
+ 0.9%
95.4%
95.4%
- 0.0%
131
109
- 16.4%
144
122
- 15.1%
2,848
2,703
- 5.1%
--
--
--
9.7
8.6
- 11.4%
--
--
--
4-2014
Months Supply of Homes for Sale 4-2011
2,109
4-2014
Inventory of Homes for Sale 4-2011
+ 9.4%
4-2014
Housing Affordability Index 4-2011
571
4-2014
Percent of List Price Received 4-2011
522
4-2014
Average Sales Price 4-2011
+/–
4-2014
Median Sales Price 4-2011
YTD 2013 YTD 2014
4-2014
Days on Market Until Sale 4-2011
+/–
4-2014
Closed Sales 4-2011
4-2014
4-2014
Pending Sales 4-2011
4-2013
4-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
April
Year To Date 548
Current Year
+/–
May
448
450
+0.4%
June
417
428
+2.6%
July
401
448
+11.7%
August
456
446
-2.2%
September
445
432
-2.9%
October
429
507
+18.2%
November
367
371
+1.1%
December
283
274
-3.2%
January
507
481
-5.1%
February
518
473
-8.7%
March
562
602
+7.1%
April
522
571
+9.4%
12-Month Avg
446
457
+2.4%
571 522 2,075
2012
Prior Year
Month
-4.7%
+9.4%
2013
2014
2012
2,127
2,109
+1.6%
+0.9%
2013
2014
Historical New Listing Activity 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which contracts have been accepted in a given month.
April
Year To Date 352
2012
345
1,297
1,290
358 1,179
-2.0%
+3.8%
2013
2014
2012
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
May
315
348
+10.5%
June
303
354
+16.8%
July
273
374
+37.0%
August
307
308
+0.3%
September
243
305
+25.5%
October
308
322
+4.5%
November
274
266
-2.9%
December
212
201
-5.2%
January
296
260
-12.2%
February
325
307
-5.5%
March
324
372
+14.8%
April
345
358
+3.8%
12-Month Avg
294
315
+7.1%
Month
+9.4%
+0.5%
2013
2014
Historical Pending Sales Activity 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
April
Year To Date 303
308
1,055
2012
990
955
274
+10.6%
+1.7%
2013
2014
2012
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
May
332
351
+5.7%
June
346
341
-1.4%
July
279
334
+19.7%
August
304
374
+23.0%
September
252
295
+17.1%
October
283
316
+11.7%
November
307
271
-11.7%
December
247
283
+14.6%
January
217
232
+6.9%
February
229
188
-17.9%
Month
+10.5%
-6.2%
2013
2014
March
306
262
-14.4%
April
303
308
+1.7%
12-Month Avg
284
296
+4.6%
Historical Closed Sales Activity 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
April
Year To Date
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
May
129
122
-5.4%
June
125
118
-5.1%
Month
152 139 121
123 110
105
2012
-20.0%
-13.8%
2013
2014
2012
-11.4%
-10.4%
2013
2014
July
124
125
+0.6%
August
110
111
+1.1%
September
121
105
-13.2%
October
130
117
-9.7%
November
122
124
+1.7%
December
115
95
-17.4%
January
127
107
-15.5%
February
124
112
-9.7%
March
121
118
-2.6%
April
121
105
-13.8%
12-Month Avg
122
114
-7.2%
Historical Days on Market Until Sale 180
160
140
120
100
80
60 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
April
Year To Date $279,500 $263,000 $239,000
2012
$250,000
$219,000
$210,000
+25.2%
+6.3%
2013
2014
2012
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
May
$233,000
$275,625
+18.3%
June
$230,000
$252,500
+9.8%
July
$220,000
$299,000
+35.9%
August
$212,500
$260,964
+22.8%
September
$230,000
$245,000
+6.5%
October
$235,000
$249,833
+6.3%
November
$233,000
$250,000
+7.3%
December
$238,070
$250,000
+5.0%
January
$245,745
$220,600
-10.2%
February
$228,000
$250,483
+9.9%
March
$225,000
$259,000
+15.1%
April
$263,000
$279,500
+6.3%
12-Month Med
$230,000
$260,000
+13.0%
Month
+9.1%
+4.6%
2013
2014
Historical Median Sales Price $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
April $345,660
2012
Year To Date $359,394
$328,638
$321,674
$348,056
+ 4.0%
- 3.2%
2013
2014
2012
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
May
$311,333
$373,557
+20.0%
June
$310,184
$337,647
+8.9%
July
$286,352
$363,957
+27.1%
August
$266,470
$348,269
+30.7%
September
$358,255
$338,314
-5.6%
October
$347,171
$329,877
-5.0%
November
$296,461
$341,307
+15.1%
December
$324,491
$341,476
+5.2%
January
$322,692
$290,536
-10.0%
February
$294,120
$335,751
+14.2%
March
$304,274
$352,004
+15.7%
April
$359,394
$348,056
-3.2%
12-Month Avg
$314,405
$343,485
+9.2%
Month $333,182
- 2.1%
+ 3.6%
2013
2014
Historical Average Sales Price $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its last list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
April
93.7%
2012
Year To Date
95.1%
96.0%
+1.6%
+0.9%
2013
2014
95.4%
93.9%
2012
95.4%
+1.7%
-0.0%
2013
2014
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
May
94.9%
95.8%
+1.0%
June
94.9%
95.2%
+0.3%
July
94.8%
95.1%
+0.4%
August
94.8%
95.5%
+0.7%
September
94.0%
95.5%
+1.6%
October
95.0%
95.6%
+0.6%
November
95.5%
94.6%
-0.9%
December
95.2%
95.0%
-0.3%
January
95.1%
95.2%
+0.2%
February
95.3%
95.2%
-0.1%
March
96.1%
95.1%
-1.1%
April
95.1%
96.0%
+0.9%
12-Month Avg
95.1%
95.3%
+0.3%
Historical Percent of List Price Received 100% 99% 98% 97% 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
April
Year To Date 147
Month May
144
154
122
131 109
2012
-15.0%
-16.4%
2013
2014
2012
-2.5%
-15.1%
2013
2014
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
140
120
-14.2%
June
143
124
-13.1%
July
151
106
-30.2%
August
156
119
-23.4%
September
147
129
-11.9%
October
143
127
-11.3%
November
145
134
-7.5%
December
143
128
-10.4%
January
141
137
-3.0%
February
148
122
-17.8%
March
150
118
-21.2%
April
131
109
-16.4%
12-Month Avg
145
123
-15.0%
Historical Housing Affordability Index 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
April 3,105 2,848
2012
2,703
-8.3%
-5.1%
2013
2014
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
May
3,045
2,797
-8.1%
June
2,957
2,720
-8.0%
July
2,901
2,640
-9.0%
August
2,862
2,616
-8.6%
September
2,880
2,561
-11.1%
October
2,833
2,572
-9.2%
November
2,768
2,519
-9.0%
December
2,607
2,414
-7.4%
January
2,643
2,478
-6.2%
February
2,705
2,523
-6.7%
March
2,804
2,632
-6.1%
April
2,848
2,703
-5.1%
12-Month Avg
2,821
2,598
-7.9%
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
April 12.1 9.7 8.6
-19.9%
-11.4%
2013
2014
2012
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
May
11.6
9.4
-18.9%
June
11.2
9.0
-19.0%
July
11.0
8.5
-22.1%
August
10.5
8.5
-19.8%
September
10.5
8.1
-22.1%
October
10.1
8.1
-19.1%
November
9.7
8.0
-17.5%
December
9.2
7.7
-16.1%
January
9.1
8.0
-12.8%
February
9.2
8.2
-11.3%
March
9.5
8.4
-11.9%
April
9.7
8.6
-11.4%
12-Month Avg
10.1
8.4
-17.1%
Historical Months Supply of Inventory 30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12