Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE HILTON HEAD AREA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS速
July 2014
Quick Facts
Although low supply and tight credit standards are still hurdles to recovery, prices continue to rise in most local areas. Job growth has strengthened lately, but wage growth has not kept pace with the price gains we have seen. Buoyed by stable and continuously lower interest rates, affordability is still historically high yet below its alltime peak. Rising inventory levels will lead to more choices for qualified buyers, but as the summer reaches toward fall, fall the prospect of more homes coming on the market begins to wane. New Listings in the Hilton Head region decreased 11.6 percent to 397. Pending Sales were down 16.8 percent to 311. Inventory levels fell 0.9 percent to 2,627 units. Prices weakened somewhat. The Median Sales Price decreased 17.1 percent to $248,000. Days on Market was down 17.5 percent to 103 days. Absorption rates improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 0.2 percent to 8.6 months. The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that GDP grew at a 4.0 percent annual rate in the second quarter and that the first quarter was less bad than previously thought. Consumer spending in the first quarter rose 2.5 percent, which is encouragingly in tandem with savings rates. Increased consumer spending means more demand for goods and labor; increased savings rates means more resources for downpayments. With rates still low, rents still rising and private job growth accelerating, it's becoming more and more difficult to side with the housing permabears.
+ 1.2%
- 17.1%
- 0.9%
Change in Closed Sales
Change in Median Sales Price
Change in Inventory
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days On Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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Data is Copyright 息 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS速 and South Carolina REALTORS速. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Key Metrics
Historical Sparklines
New Listings 7-2011
7-2012
7-2013
7-2012
7-2013
7-2012
7-2013
7-2012
7-2013
7-2012
7-2013
7-2012
7-2013
7-2012
7-2013
7-2012
7-2013
7-2012
7-2013
7-2012
7-2013
3,460
+ 0.6%
374
311
- 16.8%
2,364
2,285
- 3.3%
334
338
+ 1.2%
2,081
1,983
- 4.7%
125
103
- 17.5%
122
108
- 11.4%
$299,000
$248,000
- 17.1%
$255,000
$253,990
- 0.4%
$363,957
$326,936
- 10.2%
$339,786
$339,703
- 0.0%
95.1%
95.5%
+ 0.5%
95.4%
95.4%
- 0.0%
106
126
+ 19.3%
124
123
- 0.6%
2,650
2,627
- 0.9%
--
--
--
8.6
8.6
- 0.2%
--
--
--
7-2014
Months Supply of Homes for Sale 7-2011
3,440
7-2014
Inventory of Homes for Sale 7-2011
- 11.6%
7-2014
Housing Affordability Index 7-2011
397
7-2014
Percent of List Price Received 7-2011
449
7-2014
Average Sales Price 7-2011
+/–
7-2014
Median Sales Price 7-2011
YTD 2013 YTD 2014
7-2014
Days on Market Until Sale 7-2011
+/–
7-2014
Closed Sales 7-2011
7-2014
7-2014
Pending Sales 7-2011
7-2013
7-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
July
Year To Date 449 401
2012
3,342
397
+12.0%
-11.6%
2013
2014
2012
3,460
3,440
+2.9%
+0.6%
2013
2014
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
456
448
-1.8%
September
445
433
-2.7%
October
429
508
+18.4%
November
367
373
+1.6%
December
283
275
-2.8%
January
507
484
-4.5%
February
518
477
-7.9%
March
565
613
+8.5%
April
522
615
+17.8%
May
451
431
-4.4%
June
428
443
+3.5%
July
449
397
-11.6%
12-Month Avg
452
458
+1.4%
Historical New Listing Activity 800
700
600
500
400
300
200 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which contracts have been accepted in a given month.
July
Year To Date 374
2,364
2,285
2,070
311 273
2012
+37.0%
-16.8%
2013
2014
2012
+14.2%
-3.3%
2013
2014
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
307
306
-0.3%
September
243
302
+24.3%
October
308
322
+4.5%
November
274
266
-2.9%
December
212
201
-5.2%
January
296
256
-13.5%
February
325
299
-8.0%
March
324
360
+11.1%
April
345
360
+4.3%
May
348
343
-1.4%
June
352
356
+1.1%
July
374
311
-16.8%
12-Month Avg
309
307
-0.7%
Historical Pending Sales Activity 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
July
Year To Date 334
338
2,081
1,983
1,912 279
2012
+19.7%
+1.2%
2013
2014
2012
+8.8%
-4.7%
2013
2014
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
304
374
+23.0%
September
252
295
+17.1%
October
283
316
+11.7%
November
307
271
-11.7%
December
247
283
+14.6%
January
217
232
+6.9%
February
229
188
-17.9%
March
306
262
-14.4%
April
303
308
+1.7%
May
351
312
-11.1%
June
341
343
+0.6%
July
334
338
+1.2%
12-Month Avg
290
294
+1.8%
Historical Closed Sales Activity 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
July
Year To Date 124
132
125
122 108
103
2012
+0.6%
-17.5%
2013
2014
2012
-7.6%
-11.4%
2013
2014
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
110
111
+1.1%
September
121
105
-13.2%
October
130
117
-9.7%
November
122
124
+1.7%
December
115
95
-17.4%
January
127
107
-15.5%
February
124
112
-9.7%
March
121
118
-2.6%
April
121
105
-13.8%
May
122
108
-11.2%
June
118
109
-7.9%
July
125
103
-17.5%
12-Month Avg
121
109
-9.8%
Historical Days on Market Until Sale 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
July
Year To Date $299,000
$255,000
$253,990
$225,000
$248,000 $220,000
2012
+35.9%
-17.1%
2013
2014
2012
+13.3%
-0.4%
2013
2014
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
$212,500
$260,964
+22.8%
September
$230,000
$245,000
+6.5%
October
$235,000
$249,833
+6.3%
November
$233,000
$250,000
+7.3%
December
$238,070
$250,000
+5.0%
January
$245,745
$220,600
-10.2%
February
$228,000
$250,483
+9.9%
March
$225,000
$259,000
+15.1%
April
$263,000
$279,500
+6.3%
May
$275,625
$249,000
-9.7%
June
$252,500
$286,000
+13.3%
July
$299,000
$248,000
-17.1%
12-Month Med
$244,000
$253,288
+3.8%
Historical Median Sales Price $450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
July
Year To Date $363,957 $339,786
$326,936
$339,703
$316,067
$286,352
2012
+ 27.1%
- 10.2%
2013
2014
2012
+ 7.5%
- 0.0%
2013
2014
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
$266,470
$348,269
+30.7%
September
$358,255
$338,314
-5.6%
October
$347,171
$329,877
-5.0%
November
$296,461
$341,307
+15.1%
December
$324,491
$341,476
+5.2%
January
$322,692
$290,536
-10.0%
February
$294,120
$335,751
+14.2%
March
$304,274
$352,004
+15.7%
April
$359,394
$348,056
-3.2%
May
$373,557
$326,511
-12.6%
June
$337,647
$383,359
+13.5%
July
$363,957
$326,936
-10.2%
12-Month Avg
$330,377
$339,873
+2.9%
Historical Average Sales Price $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its last list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
July
Year To Date
94.8%
2012
95.1%
95.5%
94.4%
+0.4%
+0.5%
2013
2014
2012
95.4%
95.4%
+1.1%
-0.0%
2013
2014
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
94.8%
95.5%
+0.7%
September
94.0%
95.5%
+1.6%
October
95.0%
95.6%
+0.6%
November
95.5%
94.6%
-0.9%
December
95.2%
95.0%
-0.3%
January
95.1%
95.2%
+0.2%
February
95.3%
95.2%
-0.1%
March
96.1%
95.1%
-1.1%
April
95.1%
96.0%
+0.9%
May
95.8%
94.8%
-1.1%
June
95.2%
95.7%
+0.5%
July
95.1%
95.5%
+0.5%
12-Month Avg
95.2%
95.3%
+0.1%
Historical Percent of List Price Received 100% 99% 98% 97% 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
July 151
Year To Date
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
148
August
156
119
-23.4%
126
124
123
106
2012
-30.2%
+19.3%
2013
2014
2012
-16.3%
-0.6%
2013
2014
September
147
129
-11.9%
October
143
127
-11.3%
November
145
134
-7.5%
December
143
128
-10.4%
January
141
137
-3.0%
February
148
122
-17.8%
March
150
118
-21.2%
April
131
109
-16.4%
May
120
126
+4.6%
June
124
109
-12.0%
July
106
126
+19.3%
12-Month Avg
138
124
-9.2%
Historical Housing Affordability Index 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
July
2,903 2,650
2,627
-8.7%
-0.9%
2013
2014
2012
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
2,865
2,630
-8.2%
September
2,883
2,579
-10.5%
October
2,836
2,591
-8.6%
November
2,771
2,541
-8.3%
December
2,610
2,440
-6.5%
January
2,646
2,511
-5.1%
February
2,708
2,570
-5.1%
March
2,810
2,702
-3.8%
April
2,854
2,817
-1.3%
May
2,804
2,762
-1.5%
June
2,729
2,688
-1.5%
July
2,650
2,627
-0.9%
12-Month Avg
2,764
2,622
-5.1%
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
July 11.0 8.6
8.6
-21.8%
-0.2%
2013
2014
2012
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
10.6
8.5
-19.4%
September
10.5
8.2
-21.5%
October
10.1
8.2
-18.4%
November
9.7
8.1
-16.7%
December
9.2
7.8
-15.1%
January
9.1
8.1
-11.5%
February
9.2
8.3
-9.3%
March
9.5
8.7
-9.0%
April
9.7
9.0
-7.1%
May
9.5
8.9
-6.3%
June
9.1
8.6
-5.1%
July
8.6
8.6
-0.2%
12-Month Avg
9.6
8.4
-11.9%
Historical Months Supply of Inventory 30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12