Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE HILTON HEAD AREA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS速
August 2014
Quick Facts
Most local markets continue to recover from a soft patch earlier this year. The macro trend is still positive; the micro trend involves more moderate pinching up and down the month-to-month timeline. This is not uncommon in a balanced market, but it's been so long since we've seen one that we're watching it with perhaps too much trepidation. Metrics to watch include inventory and prices, but also days on market, months' months supply and percent of list price received at sale sale. Declines in pending and closed sales activity may reflect strong decreases at lower price points and may not indicate softening demand. New Listings in the Hilton Head region decreased 19.7 percent to 363. Pending Sales were down 7.2 percent to 283. Inventory levels fell 1.3 percent to 2,602 units. Prices were fairly stable. The Median Sales Price decreased 1.3 percent to $257,458. Days on Market was up 13.0 percent to 126 days. Sellers were encouraged as Months Supply of Inventory was down 0.2 percent to 8.5 months. Sustained job growth, lower mortgage rates and a slow rise in the number of homes for sale appear to have unleashed at least some pent-up demand. Since housing demand relies heavily on an economy churning out good jobs, it's encouraging to see second quarter GDP growth revised upwards to a 4.2 percent annualized rate and stronger-than-expected job growth in recent months. Further improvements are still needed by way of wage growth and consumer confidence but recovery continues.
- 9.9%
- 1.3%
- 1.3%
Change in Closed Sales
Change in Median Sales Price
Change in Inventory
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days On Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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Data is Copyright 息 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS速 and South Carolina REALTORS速. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Key Metrics
Historical Sparklines
New Listings 8-2011
8-2012
8-2013
8-2012
8-2013
8-2012
8-2013
8-2012
8-2013
8-2012
8-2013
8-2012
8-2013
8-2012
8-2013
8-2012
8-2013
8-2012
8-2013
8-2012
8-2013
3,865
- 0.7%
305
283
- 7.2%
2,669
2,574
- 3.6%
374
337
- 9.9%
2,455
2,320
- 5.5%
111
126
+ 13.0%
121
111
- 8.1%
$260,964
$257,458
- 1.3%
$256,765
$255,000
- 0.7%
$348,269
$352,955
+ 1.3%
$341,072
$341,632
+ 0.2%
95.5%
94.8%
- 0.7%
95.4%
95.3%
- 0.1%
119
122
+ 2.0%
121
123
+ 1.3%
2,636
2,602
- 1.3%
--
--
--
8.5
8.5
- 0.2%
--
--
--
8-2014
Months Supply of Homes for Sale 8-2011
3,892
8-2014
Inventory of Homes for Sale 8-2011
- 19.7%
8-2014
Housing Affordability Index 8-2011
363
8-2014
Percent of List Price Received 8-2011
452
8-2014
Average Sales Price 8-2011
+/–
8-2014
Median Sales Price 8-2011
YTD 2013 YTD 2014
8-2014
Days on Market Until Sale 8-2011
+/–
8-2014
Closed Sales 8-2011
8-2014
8-2014
Pending Sales 8-2011
8-2013
8-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
August 456
Year To Date 452 3,798
3,892
3,865
363
2012
-0.9%
-19.7%
2013
2014
2012
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
445
433
-2.7%
October
429
508
+18.4%
November
367
373
+1.6%
December
283
275
-2.8%
January
507
486
-4.1%
February
518
477
-7.9%
March
565
613
+8.5%
April
522
618
+18.4%
May
451
433
-4.0%
June
428
450
+5.1%
July
449
425
-5.3%
August
452
363
-19.7%
12-Month Avg
451
455
+0.7%
Month
+2.5%
-0.7%
2013
2014
Historical New Listing Activity 800
700
600
500
400
300
200 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which contracts have been accepted in a given month.
August 307
Year To Date 2,669
305 283
2012
-0.7%
-7.2%
2013
2014
2,574
2,377
2012
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
243
302
+24.3%
October
308
322
+4.5%
November
274
266
-2.9%
December
212
201
-5.2%
January
296
254
-14.2%
February
325
299
-8.0%
March
324
358
+10.5%
April
345
355
+2.9%
May
348
339
-2.6%
June
352
353
+0.3%
Month
+12.3%
-3.6%
2013
2014
July
374
333
-11.0%
August
305
283
-7.2%
12-Month Avg
309
305
-1.1%
Historical Pending Sales Activity 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
August
Year To Date 374 337
304
2012
2,455
2,320
2,216
+23.0%
-9.9%
2013
2014
2012
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
252
295
+17.1%
October
283
316
+11.7%
Month
+10.8%
-5.5%
2013
2014
November
307
271
-11.7%
December
247
283
+14.6%
January
217
232
+6.9%
February
229
188
-17.9%
March
306
262
-14.4%
April
303
308
+1.7%
May
351
312
-11.1%
June
341
343
+0.6%
July
334
338
+1.2%
August
374
337
-9.9%
12-Month Avg
295
290
-0.9%
Historical Closed Sales Activity 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
August
Year To Date 129
126
121 110
2012
111
111
+1.1%
+13.0%
2013
2014
2012
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
121
105
-13.2%
October
130
117
-9.7%
November
122
124
+1.7%
December
115
95
-17.4%
January
127
107
-15.5%
February
124
112
-9.7%
March
121
118
-2.6%
Month
-6.7%
-8.1%
2013
2014
April
121
105
-13.8%
May
122
108
-11.2%
June
118
109
-7.9%
July
125
103
-17.5%
August
111
126
+13.0%
12-Month Avg
121
111
-8.6%
Historical Days on Market Until Sale 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
August
Year To Date $260,964
$257,458
$256,765
2012
$255,000
$222,000
$212,500
+22.8%
-1.3%
2013
2014
2012
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
$230,000
$245,000
+6.5%
October
$235,000
$249,833
+6.3%
November
$233,000
$250,000
+7.3%
December
$238,070
$250,000
+5.0%
January
$245,745
$220,600
-10.2%
February
$228,000
$250,483
+9.9%
March
$225,000
$259,000
+15.1%
April
$263,000
$279,500
+6.3%
May
$275,625
$249,000
-9.7%
June
$252,500
$286,000
+13.3%
July
$299,000
$248,000
-17.1%
August
$260,964
$257,458
-1.3%
12-Month Med
$249,783
$252,750
+1.2%
Month
+15.7%
-0.7%
2013
2014
Historical Median Sales Price $450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
August
Year To Date $348,269
$352,955
$341,632
$341,072 $309,208
$266,470
2012
+ 30.7%
+ 1.3%
2013
2014
2012
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
$358,255
$338,314
-5.6%
October
$347,171
$329,877
-5.0%
November
$296,461
$341,307
+15.1%
December
$324,491
$341,476
+5.2%
January
$322,692
$290,536
-10.0%
February
$294,120
$335,751
+14.2%
March
$304,274
$352,004
+15.7%
April
$359,394
$348,056
-3.2%
May
$373,557
$326,511
-12.6%
June
$337,647
$383,359
+13.5%
July
$363,957
$326,936
-10.2%
August
$348,269
$352,955
+1.3%
12-Month Avg
$337,782
$340,243
+0.7%
Month
+ 10.3%
+ 0.2%
2013
2014
Historical Average Sales Price $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its last list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
August
94.8%
2012
Year To Date
95.5%
94.8%
+0.7%
-0.7%
2013
2014
94.4%
2012
95.4%
95.3%
+1.0%
-0.1%
2013
2014
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
94.0%
95.5%
+1.6%
October
95.0%
95.6%
+0.6%
November
95.5%
94.6%
-0.9%
December
95.2%
95.0%
-0.3%
January
95.1%
95.2%
+0.2%
February
95.3%
95.2%
-0.1%
March
96.1%
95.1%
-1.1%
April
95.1%
96.0%
+0.9%
May
95.8%
94.8%
-1.1%
June
95.2%
95.7%
+0.5%
July
95.1%
95.5%
+0.5%
August
95.5%
94.8%
-0.7%
12-Month Avg
95.3%
95.3%
-0.0%
Historical Percent of List Price Received 100% 99% 98% 97% 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
August
Year To Date
Month
149
September
156 123
121 119
2012
122
-23.4%
+2.0%
2013
2014
2012
-18.6%
+1.3%
2013
2014
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
147
129
-11.9%
October
143
127
-11.3%
November
145
134
-7.5%
December
143
128
-10.4%
January
141
137
-3.0%
February
148
122
-17.8%
March
150
118
-21.2%
April
131
109
-16.4%
May
120
126
+4.6%
June
124
109
-12.0%
July
106
126
+19.3%
August
119
122
+2.0%
12-Month Avg
135
124
-7.1%
Historical Housing Affordability Index 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
August
2,866
2,636
2012
2,602
-8.0%
-1.3%
2013
2014
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
2,884
2,585
-10.4%
October
2,837
2,597
-8.5%
November
2,772
2,547
-8.1%
December
2,611
2,446
-6.3%
January
2,647
2,521
-4.8%
February
2,709
2,580
-4.8%
March
2,811
2,714
-3.5%
April
2,855
2,837
-0.6%
May
2,805
2,788
-0.6%
June
2,730
2,724
-0.2%
July
2,651
2,669
+0.7%
August
2,636
2,602
-1.3%
12-Month Avg
2,746
2,634
-4.0%
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
August 10.6 8.5
2012
8.5
-19.2%
-0.2%
2013
2014
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
10.5
8.2
-21.3%
October
10.1
8.2
-18.2%
November
9.7
8.1
-16.5%
December
9.2
7.8
-14.9%
January
9.2
8.1
-11.1%
February
9.2
8.4
-8.9%
March
9.6
8.7
-8.5%
April
9.7
9.1
-6.2%
May
9.5
9.0
-5.1%
June
9.1
8.8
-3.5%
July
8.6
8.7
+1.3%
August
8.5
8.5
-0.2%
12-Month Avg
9.4
8.5
-9.8%
Historical Months Supply of Inventory 30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
1-2014
Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12