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Russia and Ukraine: A Possible Opening?

BY BOB MORGAN, JR.

The surprising developments in Russia last weekend point up the challenges in dealing with the region, but perhaps indicate an opportunity.

The Wagner Group, a mercenary army under the command of Yevgeny Prigozhin, that had been helping Russia fight the war in the Ukraine, appeared to be launching a coup against the Russian government on Saturday. Wagner Group forces seized a city in southern Russia and were marching toward Moscow, coming within 125 miles of the capital. However, the Wagner fighters halted the march toward Moscow on the orders of Mr. Prigozhin and turned around.

Although the Russian government of Vladimir Putin initially accused the Wagner Group of treason, a deal was announced by the government of Belarus that provided for an amnesty for the Wagner Group army, and for Mr. Prigozhin, who would go into exile in Belarus. Mr. Prigozhin explained that his forces were not actually seeking a coup, but were just expressing their dissatisfaction about integration of the Wagner forces into the regular Russian army. At this writing, it appears that Mr. Prigozhin is in Belarus and that some of the Wagner fighters may be headed there.

Obviously, this unexpected development raises many questions. The failure of the Russian government to eradicate the Wagner forces, and instead to permit an amnesty to the group's soldiers and their commander, perhaps indicates a lack of confidence by Mr. Putin of continued support for his regime among the army or senior officials. In addition, you wonder whether the obvious falling out between the Wagner Group and the Russian government will adversely affect the Russian war effort in the Ukraine.

This is very much a situation in flux, and there may be information or developments we don't know or understand. Nevertheless, it does seem that the White House should be considering whether there is a way to use the near mutiny of the Wagner Group toward a settlement of the war in the Ukraine.

Right now, the battle lines are pretty much drawn in the Ukraine, with neither the Ukraine or Russia able to make much progress. Russia managed to capture the city of Bakhmut in May after a brutal battle, but this victory seems to have had limited strategic value. On the other hand, a much-anticipated counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces has made only limited progress.

The thought is that, with some nudging from the United States and its allies, there may be reasons at this time for both sides to enter into serious negotiations.

As noted, Mr. Putin may have some concerns about the stability of his regime. There also is a danger that a lack of will by the former Wagner troops will make the fight against determined (and well equipped) Ukrainians even harder and more drawn out. While Russian public opinion does not seem to have turned against the war, a long stalemate could create resentment, both among the elites and the public at large.

On the Ukrainian side, the nation has fought heroically against the Russian invasion of the country, held most major population centers and basically limited Russian gains to the southern and eastern regions. Further, the Ukraine has been able to assemble a strong coalition of countries willing to supply and equip its armed forces. Still, there are limits to the desire of allies to expend resources for many months or years in a stalemated war and there is an enormous toll of the war on civilian populations.

Ukraine has vowed never to cede any territory conquered by the Russians. However, even though most of us believe that the Ukrainian cause is just, at some point there may need to be consideration by the country's government of some territorial concessions, particularly along the Russian border and in pro-Russian enclaves.

Again, this is written amid fast changing developments. But the United States needs to be alert to find opportunities to bring some sort of peace to this region.