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2021 State of the Market Report TUCSON AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA
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2021 At a Glance — Tucson Closed Sales
Median List Price
Sold Price v List Price
New Listings
Median Sale Price
Average Days on Market
Properties Under Contract
Average Monthly Payment*
Months of Inventory
20,531
$299,000
23,382
99%
$300,000
22,351
17
$1,217.00
0.9
A Record Sales Year Closed residential sales increased 4.1% over 2020, setting the pace for the highest sales year in a decade. In fact, annual sales have almost doubled from 2010. Historically low mortgage interest rates and pandemic-spurred demand for housing had buyers scurrying for home purchases while navigating through the challenges of a very limited supply of listings. Closed Residential Sales — Tucson Metro 25,000
20,000
15,000
12,737
13,348
2011
2012
14,028
16,910
17,018
17,225
2016
2017
2018
18,048
19,729
20,531
14,709 13,075
11,008
10,000
5,000
0
2010
2013
2014
2015
2019
2020
2021
Closed Sales
Tucson
Green Valley
Sahuarita
Sierra Vista
Phoenix
2020
19,729
2,243
819
1,991
100,452
2021
20,531
2,436
888
2,252
104,988
% change
+4.1%
+8.6%
+8.4%
+13.1%
+4.5%
Long Realty Company Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ and ARMLS on 01/06/2022 using TrendGraphix software. Median list price based on original list price of sold homes. *Average monthly payment are based on a 5% down payment on a median priced home at December 2021 interest rate. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.
2021 At a Glance — Southern Arizona Green Valley
Sahuarita
Sierra Vista
Closed Sales
Closed Sales
Closed Sales
Properties Under Contract
Properties Under Contract
Properties Under Contract
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
Median Sold Price
Median Sold Price
Median Sold Price
2,436
888
2,635
2,252
967
1.1
2,426
1.5
$279,900
1.1
$299,900
$225,000
Demand is High When an offer is accepted on a listing, the property goes “under contract.” Under contract is a leading indicator to closed sales. 2021 continued the very strong demand from buyers set in 2020, with properties going under contract almost 1% higher than 2020, despite inventory limitations, heavy competition from other buyers, and multiple offer situations. Residential Properties Under Contract — Tucson Metro % change vs Prior Year
# Properties Under Contract
25,000 28.8% 20,000
16,475
15,000
18,473
20,178 17,816
16,160
17,041
22,351
15%
6.6%
4.8%
10%
5.7% 0.9%
0% -10%
-9.3% 2013
5% -5%
-3.6%
2012
30% 20%
0.0%
2011
35% 25%
11.0% 5.5%
5,000
22,563
18,173
12.1%
10,000
0
17,048
21,155
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Properties Under Contract
Tucson
Green Valley
Sahuarita
Sierra Vista
Phoenix
2020
22,351
2,485
948
—
107,037
2021
22,563
2,635
967
2,426
107,949
% change
+0.9%
+6.0%
+2.0%
—
+0.8%
-15%
Long Realty Company Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ and ARMLS on 01/06/2022 using TrendGraphix software. 2020 Properties Under Contract data unavailable for Sierra Vista. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.
Listing Inventory Challenges There just wasn’t much in the way of active listings sitting in inventory for buyers to choose from. Listings would go under contract typically within days of hitting the market. In Tucson, in a “normal” market you could expect to see an average of 5,000–6,000 listings at any given time. In 2021, listing inventory was down to as low as around 800, and ended the year at 1,559. Residential Active Listing Inventory — Tucson Metro
8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000
Dec 2021 1,559
3,000 Trendline
2,000 1,000
Sep 21
Apr 21
Nov 20
Jun 20
Jan 20
Aug 19
Mar 19
Oct 18
May 18
Dec 17
Jul 17
Feb 17
Sep 16
Apr 16
Nov 15
Jun 15
Jan 15
Aug 14
Mar 14
Oct 13
May 13
Dec 12
Jul 12
Feb 12
Sep 11
Apr 11
Nov 10
Jun 10
Jan 10
0
New Listings Came on the Market Consistently While the inventory of homes for sale hit new record lows in 2021, the number of new listings coming on the market has been quite consistent over the last 12 years. The difference in 2021 is that those homes sold very quickly, many times within days, and therefore were unavailable for other buyers to purchase.
35,000
New Listings — Tucson Metro
33,071 27,119
30,000
23,366
25,000
25,164
22,815
21,698
23,363
24,164
24,567
2014
2015
24,456
24,292
23,824
23,097
22,596
2017
2018
2019
2020
23,382
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2016
2021
Long Realty Company Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ on 01/06/2022 using TrendGraphix software. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.
Listings Selling Immediately On average, homes went under contract in 17 days in 2021, a record. As seen in this trend chart, this is drastically lower than previously experienced, and is reflective of the very fast pace of the real estate market in 2021. We expect the pace to moderate somewhat in 2022, which will help buyers.
Avg Days on Market — Tucson
140 112
120
119
121
102
100
80
80
64
60
66
59
67
57
48
40
42
39 30
17
20 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Home Prices Increase at Break-Neck Pace The combination of very strong demand and very limited supply of homes for sale combined to increase median home sale prices in Tucson 20.5% from 2020. Historically, home prices tend to appreciate in the 3–5% range annual, so this was a significant increase. We do not expect this year over year appreciation rate to continue and expect it will settle into more historic levels. Residential Median Sold Price — Tucson Metro
$400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000
Dec 2015 $169,000
Dec 2013 $157,900
Dec 2010 $139,700
$150,000 $100,000
Dec 2011 $120,000
$50,000 0
Dec 2012 $148,000
Dec 2017 $203,000
Dec 2014 $165,000
Dec 2021 $349,082 Dec 2019 $232,000
Dec 2020 $274,579
Trendline
Dec 2016 $178,000
Dec 2018 $205,000
Dec 2010 2 Dec 011 Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016 Dec 2017 Dec 2018 Dec 2019 Dec 2020 Dec 2021
Median Sold Price
Tucson
Green Valley
Sahuarita
Sierra Vista
Phoenix
2020
$249,000
$232,013
$245,000
$199,700
$315,900
2021
$300,000
$279,900
$299,900
$225,000
$396,700
% change
+20.5%
+20.6%
+22.4%
+12.7%
+25.6%
Long Realty Company Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ and ARMLS on 01/06/2022 using TrendGraphix software. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.
Mortgage Rates At Historic Lows Mortgage rates plummeted to new lows in 2021, fueling a record sales year and high buyer demand. It also led to more refinances, which may prompt some homeowners to stay longer in their homes due to a very low mortgage interest rate. Rates have recently risen off their lows but are still very attractive. 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Source: FreddieMac.com 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Monthly Home Payments See An Uptick Low mortgage rates in 2020 were enough to offset home sales price increases, keeping monthly home payments relatively unchanged. In 2021 however, we see an upward trend in monthly payments due to 20% plus home sales price gains and slightly higher interest rates. Relatively speaking, monthly payments remain very competitive against rising rental rates, and against home payments in other parts of the country. Monthly Home Payment — Tucson Metro $1,600 $1,400
Dec 2021 $1,416.11
Dec 2020 $1,055.25
$1,200
Trendline
$1,000 $800
Dec 2019 $1,045.34
$600 $400 $200
Sep 21
May 21
Jan 21
Sep 20
May 20
Jan 20
Sep 19
May 19
Jan 19
Sep 18
May 18
Jan 18
Sep 17
May 17
Jan 17
Sep 16
May 16
Jan 16
Sep 15
May 15
Jan 15
Sep 14
May 14
Jan 14
Sep 13
May 13
Jan 13
Sep 12
May 12
Jan 12
$0
Long Realty Company Mortgage rates based on information obtained from FreddieMac.com. Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ on 01/06/2022 using TrendGraphix software. Monthly payments are based on a 5% down payment on a median priced home. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.
Very Strong Seller’s Market Months of Inventory reflects the relationship between closed sales and active listing inventory. Basically, it measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory at the current sales pace. 6.0 months is considered a balanced market, and less than 6.0 a seller’s market. At one point in 2021 there was only 2 weeks of inventory, and the year ended with 0.9 months — a very strong seller’s market. Months of Inventory — Tucson Metro Buyer’s Market
12 10 8
Seller’s Market
6 Dec 2021 0.9 Mar 2021 0.4
4 2
Sep 21
Apr 21
Nov 20
Jan 20
Jun 20
Sep 19
Aug 19
Mar 19
Oct 18
May 18
Dec 17
Jul 17
Feb 17
Sep 16
Apr 16
Nov 15
Jun 15
Jan 15
Aug 14
Mar 14
Oct 13
May 13
Dec 12
Jul 12
Feb 12
Sep 11
Apr 11
Nov 10
Jun 10
Jan 10
0
New Construction Sales Lag Strong buyer demand sparked permits on new construction to increase 17.7% in 2021. Despite that increase in permit activity, new construction closed sales lagged slightly from 2020 due to supply change issues and other market factors. This has still left a gap in the marketplace, where the availability of new construction inventory is limited and not filling current buyer needs. New Construction — Tucson Metro 6,000 5,104 5,000 4,000
4,337 3,495
3,526
3,000 2,000
3,697
2,768
3,494
3,268
1,000 0 2018
2019 Permits
2020
2021
Closed Sales
Long Realty Company Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ on 01/06/2022 using TrendGraphix software. New construction data based on information obtained from RLBrownReports/Bright Future Real Estate Research. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.
Luxury’s Leap The last two years have seen tremendous growth in the luxury home market in Tucson. Homes priced $800,000 and higher more than doubled in sales in 2021 from the year prior. Remote work, early retirement, shifts in what features people wanted in a home and the financial flexibility of the affluent had buyers on the move. Buyers at these price points can get a lot more home for the money when coming from high price point markets such as California. Luxury Closed Sales — Tucson Metro
1,000
895
900 800 700 600 500
426
400 246
300 200
125
110
123
137
2012
2013
148
150
2014
2015
179
178
2016
2017
282
100 0
2010
2011
2018
2019
2020
2021
Land Sales With buyers desperately trying to find homes to purchase, more turned to purchasing land with the idea of building. Land sales rose an impressive 72% in 2021. Land Closed Sales — Tucson Metro
1,400
1,217 1,200 1,000 800
727
706
2018
2019
2020
637
600 400
716
338
376
423
439
461
2013
2014
2015
487
291
200 0 2010
2011
2012
2016
2017
2021
Long Realty Company Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ on 01/06/2022 using TrendGraphix software. Luxury data based on all residential properties priced $800,000 and above. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.
Consumer Trends Buyers Hedging Inflation by Locking in Lower Home Payment Now With inflation at 7% and at a 30 year high, it makes financial sense to purchase a home now at today’s low mortgage rates to lock in a fixed monthly payment. As the costs of good and services continues to rise with inflation, consumers can at least hedge against future inflation with a fixed home payment. Higher Rents Driving Interest in Home Purchases Rents in Arizona increased 29% year over year, and in Tucson increased 23.3%. As rental rates continue to climb, more renters will look to buy. According to Apartment List, rental rates for a 2-bedroom apartment in Tucson are now $1,350, while monthly payment on a median priced home is $1,416, only a $66 per month difference. Demographic and Lifestyle Drivers Millennials continue to show interest in purchasing a home, and slightly higher inventory may mean more choices and new opportunities for first time homebuyers. People continue to migrate to Arizona for greater value on home purchases, lower property tax base, attractive weather and lifestyle, and being enabled by remote work opportunities. Baby boomers continue to take advantage of retirement home purchases, even if still preretirement.
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EVERYTHING iBuyer Immediate Offers REAL ESTATE More sellers in 2021 opted for the convenience and TRUSTED SINCE 1926 assurance of a quick closing immediate cash offer, from one of several “iBuyers.” In Tucson 5–6% of homes sold were to iBuyer and in Phoenix approximately 10%. These programs REALTY typically LONG do not benefit from the knowledge of an expert local real estate agent. At Long Realty, however, we are now introducing ourREAL own ESTATE immediate offer program called QuickBuy, enabling Long Realty agents to offer more EVERYTHING options and solutions to home sellers. Contact me for more information. TRUSTED SINCE 1926
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Selling your home? Whatever your situation we have the solution. Check out our menu of Selling Options:
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Offering You the Most Choices to Sell Your Home.
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NEW IMMEDIATE OFFER WITH QUICKBUY Enjoy convenience and certainty • No home prep, no showings • Close on LONG your timeline, in as few REALTY as 14 days
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NEW LIST WITH ASSURANCE WITH QUICKBUY LOCK Combine QuickBuy with traditional sale • List your home for up to 150 TRUSTED SINCE 1926 days with the certainty of an offer in-hand • Accept the offer at any time while listed
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Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.
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2022 Forecast A Strong Yet Normalizing Real Estate Market Tapping into our 96 years of experience, we believe 2022 will be a strong year for real estate, and at the same time leveling to more normal market trends. In addition to national economists, we polled our 1,400 Long Realty agents across Arizona for their projections for 2022. Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast to Rise With inflation at 30-year highs, economists expect Federal Reserve policies to combat inflation will in turn increase mortgage rates. Rising rates and recent home price gains, along with inflation on other goods & services, may temper buyer activity slightly, though rates should remain attractive enough to not significantly slow buying activity. In the short term, rising rates can create urgency for buyers. Home Prices Appreciate, at a More Normal Rate Long Realty agents project that home sale prices will rise 1–5% in 2022, which is in line with national forecasts. Of course, this can vary by neighborhood and price point. Strong sales and a continued shortage of listing inventory will keep prices growing, yet not at the torrid rate of 2021. Home Sales Projected to Continue at Strong Pace The majority of Long Realty agents project that home sales will remain at consistent levels with 2020 or increase 1–5%. Locking in a monthly payment at today’s rates can help serve to offset future inflation for consumers. Listing Inventory to Rise Slightly Slow new construction starts, homeowners staying in their homes after refinancing, the absence of a rise in foreclosures coupled with strong buyer demand, means listing inventory will continued to be in short supply. The Long Realty survey has agents predicting that listing inventory will rise slightly 1–5% from 2021 levels. Strong Seller’s Market Shifts to Seller’s Market Strong home sales and slightly higher listing inventory means that a seller’s market will continue, just not as severe as 2021. This will continue to present ideal conditions for sellers, while affording buyers a chance to find a home with more options and slightly less competition.
2022
HOUSING MARKET FORECAST
What does the coming year hold for the housing market? Here’s what experts project for 2022.
%
MORTGAGE RATES ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
Mortgage rates are projected to rise in 2022, yet still remain historically low.
RATES BY DECADE Historic Rate
Average 2022 Projection 12.7%
2022 PROJECTED RATES Fannie Mae Freddie Mac MBA NAR
$
8.86%
8.12% 6.29%
3.3% 3.5% 4.0% 3.5%
4.09%
3.5%
Today 1970s
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
2022
HOME PRICES FORECAST TO APPRECIATE
Home prices will also keep rising thanks to continued low housing supply and high buyer demand.
7.4%
7.0%
Average of All Forecasts: 5.1% 5.1%
Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac
MBA
5.1%
HPES
3.0%
2.8%
Zelman
NAR
HOME SALES PROJECTED TO BE STRONG Home sales are expected to perform well again in 2022 as more people move to meet their changing needs. HOME SALES FORECASTS Home Sales in Millions 2021 Forecast 2022 Forecast
Forecast from
7.5 7.3
7.0 6.5
6.8
6.5
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.0 5.5 5.0
Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac
NAR
MBA
Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA, NAR, Pulsenomics, Zelman
Contact me for more information about what these trends mean to you.
Long Realty Company Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.