Iraqi Shiites dominate nation’s election polls

IRAQ ELECTIONS, page 2 wrong from the beginning.” Iraqi politicians will seek to juggle those concerns in deal-making this week. While approaching a majority, Shiites are trying to assemble a coalition giving them the two-thirds assembly vote necessary to ratify the constitution and to appoint a president and two vice presidents who would then pick a prime minister.

Both the Iraqi Alliance and Allawi’s group, which has 40 seats, are courting the primary Kurdish ticket, which will have 74 seats in the assembly.

Kurdish leaders, who are seeking the assembly presidency, have said they are willing to align with those most committed to federalism _ a buzzword for as much autonomy as possible in the region of northern Iraq that Kurds control.

The Kurds are likely to object to the Shiite Alliance’s push for a constitution based on Islamic law, but might bargain in return for assurances of a de facto autonomy that allowed them to live under their own provincial constitution.

Last week, senior Alliance officials said that Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the country’s top Shiite cleric, would review their candidates and, if he thought it necessary, drafts of the constitution.

They later backed away from those statements. Atheocratic government would undermine the Bush administration’s plans for democracy in Iraq and could provide an ally to Iran.

While the Shiite Alliance has said it will work hard to include Sunnis in the new government, many Sunnis have come to mistrust Shiites in general and the Alliance in particular. The main reason is the Alliance’s close ties to Iran, Iraq’s traditional enemy.

One of the two top parties in the Alliance, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, was formed in Iran. The other, Dawa, operated with Iranian backing during its fight against Saddam in the 1980s. The most visible secular member of the Alliance, Ahmad Chalabi, has been the object of unconfirmed allegations that he gave the Iranians classified U.S. intelligence.

Despite the Alliance’s close ties to Iran, U.S. officials in Baghdad believe the new government will distance itself from Iran and not stock the new government with Shiite religious leaders. The officials, who asked not to be named, said they believe that checks and balances in the interim constitution, coupled with fears of stoking largescale sectarian violence, will force the Alliance to be more moderate.