Today’s 2024 general election presidential

Polls Mean Nothing

The fight will again come down to a handful of swing states

The recent New York Times/Sienna College poll shows President Biden and Donald Trump in a virtual tie. It is getting headlines across the country and yet means absolutely nothing. As these headlines show, the only thing it does is give journalists, columnists, and TV pundits, something to endlessly write and babble about. Of course, adding insult to injury, all these polls are hypothetical. We have no assurance Trump will be on the ballot. We are surer Biden will be. Who knows what the Republican Party, or as some call it, the Trump Cult, will do as he has just been indicted for the third time, and the fourth indictment is in the offing in Georgia?

The sad truth about our country today is we are so divided the results of the presidential race will be decided again, not by national vote totals, but rather by results in maybe eight states. It is clear no matter whom the Republicans nominate, that person will not win California or other Northwest states. Nor will they win New York and other Northeast states. Biden will not win Deep South states. This may be a sad state of affairs, but it is reality.

In 2020, the states we looked at for the final Electoral College vote were Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and maybe one or two others. That will be the case again. If Trump is the Republican candidate, I predict, without any polling, Biden will win by 10 million votes, three million more than last time but will not add one additional electoral college vote. If Trump is not the candidate, the election will be closer. But if the Republican Party runs on the same issues, and continues to run to the right, which all their current candidates are doing, Biden will still win. But as with any election, if Democrats want this to happen, they will have to work hard. They don’t need any poll to tell them that.

The majority of the nation, including women (they are a majority on their own), the LGBTQ community, and African-American community all have something to fear from a Republican president, no matter who it is. Even those who sound slightly sane, like Chris Christie and Asa Hutchison, will hone to the far right to win MAGA votes. Any Republi- can administration will continue to strip away personal rights from women, and will do nothing to further the fight for equality for the LGBTQ community and African Americans. The Republican Party today won’t even acknowledge structural racism. The one African-American candidate running for their presidential nomination, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), claims we are not racist. Mind-boggling in so many ways.

I feel a certain sadness when I write this, along with some anger. Sadness because I have for years thought our country had been making strides toward equality. Today we are either at a standstill, or regressing. Anger at some of the most egregious of the racist, sexist, homophobes, elected by Republicans, winning their districts to the detriment of the voters who elect them. The country is surely in trouble when people elect crazies like Ronny Jackson (R-Texas), Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), and Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), among others. What is incomprehensible is these nutcases are now pulling the strings of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as if he is a puppet, and they are the puppeteers.

History has shown except for the most committed voters who decide early, those who will make the difference in this election won’t make their final choice of a candidate until after Labor Day 2024. The state of the economy today doesn’t matter nearly as much as what the state of the economy will be in June 2024, nearly a year away. At that time inflation, prices for gas and in the grocery store, unemployment will impact their vote. Democrats must be able to count on, and motivate to vote women, African Americans, and the LGBTQ community, whose issues go beyond the economy. For them it is personal safety and personal rights. Those voters will make the difference for Democrats at all levels of government.

So, you need not worry about general election presidential polls at this time. They simply make money for the pollsters, and provide fodder and publicity for anyone reporting on them. They don’t mean a thing, and judging by experience, most likely aren’t even accurate.