EVIDENCE-BASED LP

Decisions, Decisions

by Read Hayes, Ph.D., CPP

Dr. Hayes is director of the Loss Prevention Research Council and coordinator of the Loss Prevention Research Team at the University of Florida. He can be reached at 321-303-6193 or via email at rhayes@lpresearch.org. © 2011 Loss Prevention Research Council

Loss prevention professionals are paid to make good decisions. And good choices come from good data. The LPRC was founded and is run by top retailers and their partners to help their teams make well-informed decisions using mixed research methods to innovate and evaluate highly effective diagnostic and prevention tools.

This column is designed to do the same thing—to provide further decision support via discussing the whys and hows of reducing crime and loss. As I’ve mentioned many times, LP and solutions managers should be absolute experts at diagnosing and treating specific crime problems to promote organizational success. That’s why we exist.

Big to Small

One way our team looks at LP is by carefully examining the dynamics of offending and negligent behavior in three levels of the environment. Crime events flow from motivated offenders coming into contact with vulnerable, desirable targets. Environmental criminology refers to macro, meso, and micro settings, and we believe this reference helps us better think and act in those dimensions. By thinking about and collecting data on varying levels, your team can much better plan and deploy cost-effective solutions.

When we look at the below levels, think about offenders and how their behavior is shaped by the built and cultural environment, and how altering their perceptions of opportunities, risk, and required effort is critical at each spatial level. Your problem-analysis will indicate where and what crime and loss control tools to employ, where and why.

Macro environments like areas surrounding a given store, distribution center, or office, include offender clusters, such as socially disorganized living areas, temporary work sites, some high schools, and the larger transportation networks. Store or DC visitors and employees usually come from surrounding areas. And public and private transportation routes also help dictate a location’s risk level.

Think about and collect data on why, how, and when offenders target and travel to and from your places.

Estimated macro environmental risk level will help predict expected problem levels. Internal and external models, such as Cap Index, other models, and police calls for service, can help project violent and property crime levels.

Meso environments like parking lots tie together the neighborhood and a specific place like a store. The amount of curb cuts, boundary types and definitions, day and night time visibility, and surrounding places all play a role in risk level as well. Bars, game centers, and similar places can serve as crime attractors and generators.

Think about and collect data on why, how, and when offenders access and move to and through your locations.

Identify access and egress points, visibility and lighting levels, and consider reported crime levels and existing police and security services to help in your assessment.

Micro environments consist of a store’s or other location’s exterior and interior make up that we want to protect. The store’s assets, permeability, entrances and exits, visibility, deployed relevant security tools, manager commitment, and real-world practices all affect the place’s vulnerability to surrounding risk.

Think about and collect data on why, how, and when offenders visit, attack, and leave your places.

Environmental criminology refers to macro, meso, and micro settings, and we believe this reference helps us better think and act in those dimensions. By thinking about and collecting data on varying levels, your team can much better plan and deploy cost-effective solutions.

Assess your employees’ commitment, training, execution, and needed tools to determine adequate protection techniques to minimize loss.

Another important concept to keep in mind is that retail organizations are really systems. Retail companies exist to sell goods to customers. And the flow of data, merchandise, and financial instruments should be carefully constructed, manned, and audited. Too often many of us isolate on the all-important stores, but purchasing, supply chain, and information and money flow are critical and all operations influence the others.

Likewise, at every point, people are the difference-makers. Good people make the best out of whatever they face. Not-so-good folks can make a mess out of even good situations, and can be a real disaster in tough environments. So we have to take the human factor into account during our diagnostic and treatment phases.

This list is just a part of retail performance dynamics, but hopefully it gets you and your team even more motivated to think about, analyze, and act in multiple dimensions.

LPRC Update

Our LPRC field team has just completed another round of in-store offender interviews. Corrie Tallman, John Eassey, and I talked to over 35 shoplifters around packaging dynamics at the request of the LPRC’s Packaging Innovation Working Group headed by John Voytilla of OfficeMax. Some key findings include packaging size, shape, material, and messaging adjustments to better hinder/deter open-carry, concealment, and package-attack theft.

The Predictive Analytics Working Group headed by Carlos Bacelis of Sears Holdings and LPRC’s Dr. Daniel Downs and made up of sixteen retail chains is working through an exhaustive list of macro-, meso-, and micro-level variables using structural equation modeling and hierarchal linear modeling to better establish actionable key factors and associations.

The Benefit-Denial Working Group led by Tim Fisher of Best Buy and Dain Sutherland of Walmart, and including over fourteen retailers is preparing several lab and in-store system-wide benefit-denial pilots to work out technology adjustments and best practices.

Again, the LPRC membership extends a warm welcome to all retailers to participate in the annual Impact workshop and conference being held at Office Depot’s Boca Raton headquarters October 10 – 12. This year’s agenda includes group exercises on new experimental, statistical, and interview research findings, as well as live-offender interaction, ORC surveillance and sting vehicles, and a lot of highly interactive networking events. If you’re interested, more information is available from Jenna Pennington at jpennington@lpresearch.org.