Lockdown Count Restaurants at Risk

November 18, 2020 Lost Creek Guide Page 9

-Obituaries- Another Lockdown Could Put Colorado Restaurants At Risk Of Mass Closure

WILLIAM PATE STONNER II By Sarah Mulholland

the COVID 19 Pandemic

Brighton, CO – United Power’s Board of Directors approved an additional $50,000 to add to the $250,000 allocated earlier in the year to be earmarked for members financially impacted by COVID 19 through the remainder of 2020. The board has also generously authorized another $250,000 to help members in 2021. The money for this fund is allocated from the cooperative’s unclaimed capital credits. The Co-op Cares Fund is designed to assist members who have been directly impacted by COVID 19 – particularly those who have been affected by illness and job losses.

“The Co-op Cares Fund has been an important pillar in our strategy to provide support to our members during this difficult time and complements the many other ways United Power is helping our members weather this situation,” stated Bryant Robbins, interim CEO. “Through this program, United Power is providing $550,000 in direct assistance to our members who are being financially impacted by COVID-19. We are proud to have already provided more than $270,000 in assistance to more than 1,500 members so far this year.”

In addition to the Co-op Cares Fund, United Power has various means of helping members stay on top of their electric bills including payment arrangements, extensions, prepay, budget billing, and assistance from local agencies. United Power encourages members to contact us so we can connect them with the most appropriate assistance program for their situation.

“United Power has several ways to help members when they are having difficulty paying their electric bills,” stated Robbins. “All we are asking our members to do is pick up the phone and call us if they are having difficulty paying their bill. We can’t help you if we don’t know you are struggling.”

The Co-op Cares Fund will be available for assistance through the end of 2021, or when the fund is depleted. United Power members who are impacted by the current health emergency or any other situation can reach our Member Services department at 303-637-1300.

United Power is a member-owned, not-for-profit electric cooperative delivering electricity to more than 95,000 meters at homes, business, and farms in Colorado’s north central front range. For more information about the cooperative, visit www. unitedpower.com or follow them on social media at facebook.com/unitedpower or twitter.com/unitedpowercoop. Hart Van Denburg/CPR NewsRestaurants along Main Street in Longmont have moved William Pate Stonner II (Bill) (Bo) of Brighton February 26, 1971 - October 29, 2020. Dad, Son, Brother, Uncle, Nephew and Friend. Bill passed away Thursday morning of a heart attack after a forty-six-year battle with type 1 Diabetes. Bill was born at Valley View hospital in Thornton, Colorado to William Pate Stonner and Loretta Pearl Stonner (Thompson). He spent his early childhood in Lochbuie Colorado. Bill attended Hudson Elementary and Weld Central Jr. & Sr. Highschool from where he graduated in 1989. He married and has two children, a son William Pate Stonner III born in 1997 and a daughter Alexis Michelle Paige Stonner born in 2001. Bill was involved in the the Boy Scouts and achieved the rank of Eagle Scout in 1989. Bill was an avid collector if comics, (particularly Spider-man) ceramic dragons and Sunday paper recipes. Bill loved attending his children’s sporting events and school activities. Bill was always quick with a joke and had a quick wit about him. He had a different take on life. He was most loved and will be missed by many. Bill is survived by his parents Bill and Lorie Stonner, his children Will and Alexis, his brothers Jason (Kristina Heinmiller) Stonner of Plattsmouth Nebraska and Michael (Jodi Miller) Stonner of Keenesburg, nieces Arizona (Joel), Taylor, Dilynn and Grace, nephews Jaden, Logan and Odin and great nephew Aiden. Bill is also survived by his uncles Dan and Gary Thompson, both of Hudson, Jeff (Linda) Stonner of Aurora and aunt Peggy Eversole of Thornton. Services will be held at Coyote Creek Ranch, 28376 WCR 6, Keenesburg, CO, on November 28th at 11am. Officiated by Pastor Rick Hernbloom of the Longs Peak Church in Brighton. seating onto the sidewalks, while also requiring social distancing rules so they can stay open during the coronavirus pandemic, Friday, Oct. 2, 2020. Roughly one in four restaurants would consider closing permanently within a month if indoor dining were shut back down, according to a new survey from the Colorado Restaurant Association. About 80 percent of dining establishments would close within six months, according to a survey of 170 operators conducted this month. Almost half of restaurants would be forced to shut down within three months if capacity is restricted to 25 percent, the survey found. Almost threequarters said they would shut down within six months. The pandemic has taken an enormous toll on restaurants. The industry has shed nearly one-third of its jobs – which equates to more than 63,000 jobs, Colorado Restaurant Association data show. Revenues declined about 40 percent on average from last year, the data show. GLEN ARDEN The likelihood of stay-at-home orders, either at the local level or statewide, is rising as cases climb. Gov. Jared Polis is encouraging Coloradans to cancel plans in the coming weeks as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches. Denver and Pueblo counties have put a

Glen Arden, a young 91, of Hudson, Colorado, born in Burlington, Colorado on Novem- 10 p.m. curfew in place. ber 19th, 1928, passed away, peacefully, at home on October 17th, 2020 Restaurants got a partial reprieve during the warm months with cities and towns

United Power Board of Directors Allocates an enues this summer came from expanded patio dining, according to survey results. Outdoor dining is no longer an option for many restaurants as the weather gets cold.

Additional $300,000 to Co-op Cares Fund to The restaurant association estimates it costs more than $17,000 to prepare for outdoor dining in the winter, including such things as heaters and tents. About one-fifth of

Support Members Economically Affected by restaurants won’t attempt to institute outdoor dining for winter, citing the cost, accord ing to the survey. -

across Colorado setting up outdoor dining programs. More than half of restaurants’ rev-

More than eight months into the coronavirus pandemic in Colorado, cases and hospitalizations are rising once again. State health officials have warned that if the trend doesn’t abate, Colorado’s hospital capacity could be overwhelmed in a matter of weeks.

To help you stay updated as the situation evolves, The Colorado Sun has launched this live blog with updates on closures, restrictions, and other COVID-19 developments.

You can also check out our map of Colorado coronavirus cases and deaths here, as well as charts showing the national and international COVID-19 situation. That page is updated daily. (Email questions, comments, concerns and/or tips to newsroom@coloradosun.com) 12, 2020, shows how the state’s increase in hospitalizations due to COVID-19 have exceeded previous modeling forecasts. (Screenshot)

Colorado’s top epidemiologist says state’s coronavirus case surge is getting worse, not better

In a stoic presentation to a group of state health leaders on Thursday, Colorado’s top epidemiologist said the state is seeing a “week-over-week acceleration” in the increase of new cases of COVID-19, each day bringing worse and worse news for the state’s control of the coronavirus.

“To me this is a clear indication of exponential growth in the state,” said Dr. Rachel Herlihy, the state epidemiologist at the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment.

“We’re not even seeing a hint of a plateau at this point.”

Her comments came during an update to a group of health experts called the GEEERC, for Governor’s Expert Emergency Epidemic Response Committee. The group offers guidance to Gov. Jared Polis on how to respond to the pandemic.

Herlihy said the state has reached all-time highs for the number of coronavirus outbreaks currently underway, the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and the number of new cases reported to the state. Over the past week, more than 3,000 new cases have been reported per day.

Cases have grown so rapidly, Herlihy said, they now exceed the state’s capacity to do investigations and contact tracing for all of them. She also said the state’s trajectory continues to exceed earlier projections.

“We’re trending in the wrong direction,” she said.

A month ago, when the GEEERC last met in full, Herlihy said Colorado ranked 31st among all states and the District of Columbia in the incidence rate for new coronavirus cases. At that time, the state’s 7-day average per-capita case rate was 72 new cases per 100,000 people.

Since that time, the case rate in Colorado has more than quintupled to an average of 412 new cases per 100,000 people. Colorado now ranks 17th in the country for highest incidence rate.

“This is a really clear indication of how quickly things have changed in the state,” Herlihy said.

Herlihy also offered new insight into one of the pandemic’s more hopeful trends. While hospitalizations have reached an all-time high, the percentage of those patients who are being treated in intensive-care units in Colorado has hit a new low — about 19%. Doctors who are members of the GEEERC said this is due to treatment advances such as new medications and greater comfort with treating people with oxygen in regular hospital beds rather than moving them to ICU beds for intubation.

A slide from a Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment presentation on Nov.

Dr. Michelle Baron, an infectious disease specialist at UCHealth University of Colorado

A slide from a Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment presentation on Nov. 12, 2020, shows Colorado ranked 17th in the nation for highest incidence rate of new COVID-19 cases. The smaller inset chart shows Colorado ranked 31st just one month prior. (Screenshot)

Hospital, said during Thursday’s meeting that most ICU patients today are in such serious condition when they arrive that they are admitted straight to the unit. This is different from the first surge of the virus in spring, when many ICU patients were first admitted to a general ward before their deteriorating conditions forced them to move to the ICU.

But, overall, the worsening situation has state health leaders increasingly urging people to adopt stay-at-home-like behavior, even if Polis has signaled he does not want to issue a new stay-at-home order.

“For the rest of November,” said Jill Hunsaker Ryan, executive director of the state health department, “we’re recommending people only interact with their own households.”

Inmates at Colorado’s El Paso County jail were not routinely given masks to stop the spread of the coronavirus until last week when it turned into the site of the state’s second-

A slide from a Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment presentation on Nov. 12, 2020, shows that the percentage of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 who are in intensive-care units has hit an all-time low. Doctors said advances in medications and changes in how the disease is treated have made the difference. (Screenshot)

largest outbreak, a jail spokesperson said.

The jail in Colorado Springs, which has has held 1,200 detainees on average daily lately, previously only gave inmates masks if they were moving around the facility, going to to court or if recommended by medical staff, El Paso Sheriff’s Office spokesperson Sgt. Deborah Mynatt told The Denver Post.

The jail initially did not issue masks to all inmates because there was a limited supply of face coverings that suitable for detention facilities. Mynatt said she did not know why suitable masks were not procured later.

“I’m not sure on who made the decision or why, but I know that the entire time we were taking recommendations from public health,” she said.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advises detention facilities to provide all inmates with masks at no cost and to frequently wash them.

Officials first reported the jail outbreak on Oct. 26 when eight inmates who were asymptomatic tested positive for COVID-19.

The El Paso County jail. (Handout)

According to the sheriff’s office, 90 jail workers and 863 inmates have tested positive since the pandemic began, all but 14 of them since mid-October.

The number of inmates with the disease who were considered infectious dropped to 148 on Wednesday because some inmates have left the jail and others are past the 10-day window when they are able to spread the disease.

Colorado’s largest coronavirus outbreak is at the University of Colorado in Boulder, where there have been 1,766 cases.

For most people, the coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough that clear up in two to three weeks.

For some — especially older adults and people with existing health problems — it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia, and death. — The Associated Press

Recently, the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC), citing new authorities under Senate Bill 181 of 2019, recommended a set of new rules which would quadruple the standard residential setback distance and place additional regulations upon wells built near areas of environmental interest. Soon, the COGCC may enact these rules by internal vote and without the electorate’s approval. Currently in Colorado, developers are prohibited from establishing new oil and gas drilling operations within certain distances of residential complexes and protected areas. This effort represents the fifth attempt to dramatically increase setback distances after a failed series of proposed ballot

measures in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020.[i]

In this analysis, the Common Sense Institute examines just one of the rule changes within the broader package of setback regulations: State-determined wildlife habitats. Under currently recommended rules 1202.c and 1202.d, soft setback distances of between 300 feet and 1.25 miles would be triggered by different habitat areas, as determined by state officials with Colorado Parks and Wildlife. In some habitat areas, the proposed rules would also limit oil and gas development to one location per square mile, unless an energy firm wins state approval for additional wildlife mitigation actions.

According to the Colorado Oil and Gas Association, the upstream and downstream value of Colorado’s oil and gas industry was worth about $19b in 2017 and contributed over $1b in state and local tax revenue.[ii] CSI’s research on the impacts of Proposition 112 showed that if that proposed setback had passed, an average of 85,000 to 110,000 jobs would have been lost over the first 10 years, along with $7b to $9b in cumulative tax revenue.

Given there is an alternative proposal offered to the COGCC to make the 1200 series setback rules hard, CSI modeling the economic impacts of this alternative proposal using the past three years of production data, i.e., 2017 to 2019. In effect, we asked the following question: If all the 1200 series habitats had been considered hard setbacks between 2017 and 2019, how would the Colorado oil and gas sector and the broader state economy have been impacted? Our findings are summarized below:

Summary of Key Findings

If all the 1200 series habitats had been considered hard or restricted surface occupancy from 2017 to 2019,

Over 22,000 Colorado jobs, 87% of which are from outside the oil and gas industry, could have been lost, including a total of 8,610 in professional and scientific services, retail trade, construction, and health care from the induced and indirect impacts (Figure 10),

Mineral rights owners in the Denver-Julesburg and Piceance Basins would have lost up to $600m in royalties between years of 2017 and 2019,

Colorado’s 2019 GDP would have been between $2 billion and $2.7 billion below its actual 2019 value (Figure 9), and

State government and local governments would have collected up to $180 million less in total 2019 tax revenue, or about 88% of the anticipated cost of full-day kindergarten (Figure 9),

Up to 8.5% of total new oil and gas production between 2017 and 2019 would not have occurred (Figure 7), and

The total 2019 output of Colorado’s oil and gas industry would have been between 7.1% and 9.2% lower than its historical value (Figures 7 and 8).

The impact is disproportionately felt in the Piceance Basin as over 73% of new production value in 2019, fell inside the 1202.c and 1202.d surface setback areas (Figure 5).

Policy Background and Detailed Findings

While the economic stakes are still high, the set of rules being discussed by the COGCC are different from those in Proposition 112. Committee members have promised that permitters will consider and grant individual exemptions to some of the new rules; thus, some new wells will still be permitted to drill within these “soft” setback areas, while no new drilling will be permitted within “hard” setback areas. Figure 1 summarizes the different setback rule changes and whether they are assumed to be effectively hard or soft.

CSI undertook only to model the economic and fiscal impacts of proposed setbacks within the 1200 series of rules, as the other rules have already been debated and will be enforced with unpredictable exemption rates.

Current COGCC staff recommendations are to impose hard surface setbacks surrounding the features outlined in rule 1202.c and softer setbacks around those specified by rule 1202.d. Considering recent statements from external interest groups suggesting that 1202.d’s exemption rate will be close to zero,[iii] CSI’s modeling reflects both the direct oil and gas–production and the indirect economic and fiscal impacts of rules 1202.c and 1202.d as though they will be enforced as hard setbacks. The results in this report reflect production within the Denver-Julesburg and Piceance Basins. Due to data constraints, the estimates only cover the counties of Weld, Arapahoe, and Adams in the Denver-Julesburg Basin, and Garfield, Mesa, and Rio Blanco in the Piceance Basin. They also reflect the original distance for hard setbacks of 300 feet for certain high priority fish and other aquatic species habitats. Figure 2 shows the two regions, their new well locations, and the proposed rule 1202 setback areas.

The modeling estimates that if the 1200 series setback rules had been in place as hard setbacks starting in 2017, the cumulative loss of new production it would have caused by

2019 would have been worth as much as $3b (Figures 7-9). The total volumes and estimated values of new production that occurred inside the 1200 series setbacks between 2017 and 2019 are shown below. The values were estimated using annual production volumes and the annual prices reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Figures 3–5 show the new production within the impacted areas as shares of all new production within each region.

CSI used the REMI Tax-PI Colorado model to determine the dynamic economic impacts in 2019 if the 1202 setbacks rules had been in place for three years. The modeling inputs were derived from new production values since 2017 and their rates of decline since then; these are displayed in Figure 6.

It is assumed that producers will be able to access some of the resources below the new setback zone using techniques such as horizontal drilling. CSI’s two scenarios reflect the assumption that between 10% and 30% of the production in those areas would still have occurred if the rule were approved in 2017. Because of these adjustments, the value of 2019 production that would have been lost under this rule is between $1b and $1.4b. Figures 7 and 8 show these values and their constituent parts. These were used to construct CSI’s impact modeling, the results of which are summarized in Figures 9 and 10. Figure 10 shows the employment impacts to other industries outside of just the oil and gas sector. These impacts occur due to the reduction in intermediate demand for businesses that

supply the oil and gas sector as well as the reduction in induced consumption from the loss of income across all sectors.

Approach to Impact Modeling

To determine the amounts of production between 2017 and 2019 that took place in the rule 1202 setback areas, Noble Energy analysts overlayed Series 1200 mapping layers published by COGCC with COGCC production data available through RS Energy’s data subscription.[iv] The map for the 1202.c high priority habitats covers the original 300-foot distance for cutthroat trout, native fish and other native aquatic species, and sportfish management waters. The revised 500-foot distance would increase the impacts modeled here. The resulting totals of production from wells situated within what would be inaccessible areas under rule 1202, were adjusted for the two scenarios to account for some degree of continued access to the natural resource below the surface setback area through horizontal drilling. The resulting estimates for the loss in new production were run in the REMI Tax PI Colorado model to generate the numbers in Figure 9. Additionally, since the Tax-PI model only calculates impacts to state tax revenues, CSI used assessment and mills data from the Colorado Department of Local Affairs and external assumptions about oiland-gas property netbacks to estimate impacts upon local property tax collections; these estimates are shown as the “Tax Revenue” in Figure 9.

Conclusion

The COGCC’s proposed setbacks for wildlife habitats, under rules 1202.c and 1202.d, are just one part of a much broader overhaul of setback restrictions for Colorado’s oil and natural gas industry. However, a review of this proposal and recent historical data shows the implementation of a hard wildlife habitat setbacks alone has the potential to significantly impact both the energy sector and the broader economy. Cont. on Page 12, See Economic Impacts

Page 12 Lost Creek Guide November 18, 2020

Economic Impacts of the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission Series 1200 Proposed Oil and Gas Setbacks

Depending on how the wildlife habitat setbacks are implemented, total oil and natural gas production in Colorado could be curtailed over a three-year period by roughly 7% to 9%, resulting in an annual loss of $2 billion to $2.7 billion in GDP, and a $122 million in state and local tax revenue. In terms of employment, potentially 22,000 jobs could be lost

across the entire economy, not just the energy sector. The effects would be felt beyond just the localities of the lost production, too. In downtown Denver, for example, 14% of the office space is leased by energy companies.[v]

At a minimum, these findings suggest that additional setbacks from state-determined wildlife habitats deserve closer scrutiny during the development and implementation of these new rules. While it can be argued that the proposed wildlife setbacks have the flexibility to allow for continued growth in oil and natural gas production, this will depend on the willingness of regulators to actually use this flexibility. The approach that regulators ultimately take will have significant implications for Colorado’s recovery from today’s highly challenging economic conditions. [i] https://commonsenseinstituteco.org/research-issues/energy/ [ii] https://www.coga.org/uploads/1/2/2/4/122414962/coga_economic_fiscal_ impacts_-_final.pdf [iii] https://coloradosun.com/2020/09/09/colorado-oil-gas-setback-2000-feet/ [iv] https://dtdapps.coloradodot.info/otis/catalog, https://www.rseg.com/ [v] https://www.cbre.com/research-and-reports/Downtown-Denver-Energy-

United Power to Move Forward with Lawsuit

Against Power Supplier Colorado Public Utilities Commission Declines to Rule on Corporate Law Issue

Brighton, CO - Yesterday the Colorado Public Utilities Commission (CoPUC) dismissed without prejudice United Power and La Plata Electric’s complaint against TriState. The Commission acknowledged that the decision on whether Tri-State lawfully admitted the three non-utility partners, an action that allowed them to claim that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) had exclusive jurisdiction over their rates, was a corporate law matter and should be decided by the courts. In May United Power filed a case against Tri-State in Adams County courts asserting that Tri-State fraudulently induced United Power to champion a 2019 Bylaw amendment to permit partial requirement membership. The admission of three non-utility members allowed Tri-State to apply for oversight with FERC, effectively setting aside the months of work by the CoPUC and suspending the administrative law judge’s ruling that favored a buyout methodology developed by United Power.

“We know the PUC was put in an awkward position of having to rule on a corporate law decision,” stated interim CEO, Bryant Robbins. “We greatly appreciate the hard work of both the Commission and their staff. The need of having the District Court hear the case was not unexpected. We will continue to move forward in our efforts to lower the rates of the 97,000 meters that we serve.”

In November of 2019, United Power filed a complaint with the Colorado Public Utilities Commission (PUC) seeking a fair buyout charge. This summer, United Power received a favorable ruling from the Administrative Law Judge (ALJ) assigned by the PUC to hear the case. Then on August 28th, FERC reversed an earlier decision and determined they have sole jurisdiction over the exit fee matter, even while acknowledging that they have not determined that Tri-State’s proposed methodology represented a “just, reasonable and nondiscriminatory exit charge”.

“While we are disappointed that the commission is unable to rule on this issue, we believe our case in Adams County will show that the non-utility members were unlawfully added according to both State Statutes and their own bylaws,” stated Robbins.

United Power is a member-owned, not-for-profit electric cooperative delivering electricity to nearly 97,000 meters at homes, business, and farms in Colorado’s north central front range. For more information about the cooperative, visit www.unitedpower.com or follow them on social media at facebook.com/unitedpower or twitter. com/unitedpowercoop.