Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor European Transport Edition: Outlook 2008–2012 A DV I S O RY
The Trend Monitor offers a new perspective, allowing infrastructure investment to be directly compared across geographies. Inside we look into the medium-term future of European transport and reveal the top performers.
Key insights: reflections on baseline forecasts Introduction: investing in European transport infrastructure Present and future: market size and rate of growth A local touch Concluding thoughts
2 Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor
Kai Rintala
Foreword
Head of Infrastructure Intelligence KPMG in the UK
KPMG is delighted to introduce the Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor. This first edition focuses on developments in the European transport infrastructure market. The report is intended to provide a basis for a more informed debate on the relative attractiveness of different markets across the region. Existing publications tend to focus either on the short term, identifying opportunities that are about to come to the market, or the long term, estimating the size of the required investment over decades to come. The Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor is positioned between the two and it presents a medium-term view of the market. We believe that the baseline forecasts of future transport infrastructure markets present a step change in the information available. Our estimates are directly comparable across the 30 countries covered. They build on reliable data sources and a small number of assumptions that are fully explicit.
The Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor also uses KPMG member firms’ experience in each of the markets to consider the baseline forecasts in context. Transport infrastructure markets will continue to develop and KPMG’s Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor will evolve with them. We will revisit our forecasts and our forecasting method in the future as well as explore other sectors and geographies.
Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor 3
Key insights: reflections on baseline forecasts
Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor1 presents the results of econometric modeling and discusses them in a wider context. The first edition of the trend monitor focuses on the medium-term view of transport infrastructure investment2 in 30 European countries. The fundamental aim of the report is to be an enabler of a more informed debate on the medium-term opportunities across the continent. 1 2
KPMG’s Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor has been produced in collaboration with Dr Stephen Gruneberg. By transport infrastructure we mean buildings and structures used in roads, rail, ports and airports. And by investment we mean spending on new build as well as repairs and maintenance.
4 Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor
Comparing transport infrastructure markets across countries is not straightforward. The data to do so does not exist. It must be produced by econometric modeling. Our method is explained in the last section of this report. The underlying dataset we used was produced by Eurostat.3 We believe it to be the most reliable and uniform of the datasets currently available.4 The cleaned historical data and detailed baseline forecasts are included as Appendix 1. The following chart highlights key insights from the combination of our modeling and local intelligence. There are four key categories that emerge:
Star
Tigers
Large and mature
Small and mature
Based solely on our model we estimate there is no market that is both large and forecast to have rapid medium-term growth. Such a market would classify as a Star.
Our model shows six countries are estimated to grow relatively fast from 2008 to 2012. We have labeled Bulgaria, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania as Tigers. These markets grow out of a base that is very small in comparison to the Large and mature markets.
Based solely on our model, there are five countries that are large but are predicted to grow relatively slowly. We have classified France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK as Large and mature markets. These markets are forecast to represent 67 percent of transport infrastructure investment between 2008 and 2012 in all the markets examined.
The remaining countries we looked at were named Small and mature markets. They are both small and predicted to have slow growth rates in the five years leading to 2012.
However, when KPMG member firms’ local intelligence is taken into account along with our modeling Spain emerges as a Star market.
When our model is combined with KPMG member firms’ local intelligence, Ireland, Poland, Portugal and Slovakia emerge as Tiger markets.
At first glance these results appear to be conforming to conventional wisdom. The value of the trend monitor to the players in the global infrastructure market will be in the foundation it provides for comparing and debating the attractiveness of different transport markets in the medium-term. We believe that we have successfully improved the method for producing estimates of this nature. We have every reason to expect that this will make our forecasts more accurate. Nevertheless, they will always remain just that: estimates.
These range from political stability to the existence of appropriate legal and regulatory frameworks. We have, therefore, employed our member firms’ presence in each of the 30 markets to offer a brief assessment of the forecasts. This is illustrated in the ‘A Local Touch’ section. Overall we expect our estimates to prove conservative. The intelligence on the ground suggests that some countries supported by European Union funds plan to invest considerably more in transport infrastructure over the next five years than our model has predicted.
Local insights We do not think that our forecasts alone can determine the attractiveness of a particular market. Our modeling relies on past trends to predict the future and will always fail to spot sudden shifts and/or shocks in the market. There are a number of factors that could contribute to such changes.
3
4
Eurostat, (2007), Table NAMA P16 K, Gross Fixed Capital Investment by 6 asset types aggregates at constant 1995 prices and exchange rates in millions of Euros, Brussels, European Commission We chose not to analyse planned or declared expenditures. This was because we felt that they could not easily be made comparable across countries and/or they could be influenced by the political processes.
Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor 5
Introduction: investing in European transport infrastructure This edition of KPMG’s Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor is the first in a new series of reports looking at global infrastructure markets. The aim of the series is to facilitate a more sophisticated debate on the medium-term opportunities in the global marketplace. We discuss the transport infrastructure markets in 30 European countries. In particular, the focus is on evolving investment patterns over the five years from 2008 to 2012. Estimated future size and forecast growth rates provide a baseline against which future opportunities can be discussed. We have a view of the prospects in the markets through our member firms’ presence in each country. This intelligence is vital in placing the baseline forecasts in appropriate context.
The forecasts presented are based on historical Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) data harmonized by Eurostat. We felt that this was the most reliable and comparable dataset available. The results should, nevertheless, be read with caution as this type of prediction is subject to considerable uncertainty. The past is not always a reliable indicator of the future. We have aspired to be transparent both in the method we have used and the assumptions we have made. These are detailed on the last pages of this report. The modeling results are included as Appendix 1.
6 Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor
Present and future: market size and rate of growth The patterns that emerge from the econometric modeling are extremely informative. Figure 1 below shows the actual size of markets in 2006. As there is a delay in the preparation of national accounts data, these are the most up to date and reliable. All figures in this report are in 2005 prices in order to facilitate comparisons. Rather than absolute size, it is the relative size of the markets that is of most interest in comparing countries. Figure 1. Expenditure on transport infrastructure in 2006 (in â‚Ź millions)
France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK were by far the largest markets by expenditure in 2006.
0
1,000
2,000
Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Data: Eurostat Analysis: KPMG in the UK
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor 7
Figure 2. Forecast average annual growth rates in transport infrastructure expenditure 2008-2012 (in percent)
Forecast growth rates are below four percent for each of the five biggest countries by expenditure.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Data: Eurostat Analysis: KPMG in the UK
Figure 2 indicates that the five major markets identified in Figure 1 all have forecast average annual growth rates5 over five years that are below four percent. Germany spent the most on transport infrastructure in 2006 but has the lowest forecast growth rate of the countries analyzed. Figure 2 also brings into sharp focus the six countries that are predicted, on average, to grow over five percent per annum. These countries, however, all have relatively small markets.
5
Based on the two variables illustrated in figures 1 and 2 we may classify the transport infrastructure markets into four categories. Figure 3 delineates Small and mature, Large and mature, Tiger and Star markets. This modeling output is not the final classification of these markets. In the next section we use this as a baseline to assess the future in a more qualitative manner.
All growth rates are in real terms (i.e. inflation is excluded) in order to facilitate comparisons.
8
8 Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor
Figure 3: Transport 2006 actual expenditure and forecast average annual growth rate 2008–2012 10,000
Stars
Large and mature
€ millions
France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom
5,000
Small and mature
Tigers
Austria Belgium Czech Republic Cyprus Denmark Finland Greece Hungary Ireland Luxembourg
Bulgaria Estonia Iceland Latvia Lithuania Romania
Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Sweden Switzerland Turkey
0 0
10%
5%
Data: Eurostat Analysis: KPMG in the UK
France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK are Large and mature markets. They all had large 2006 expenditures, but are forecast to have low growth rates. Bulgaria, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania are countries that have the highest forecast average growth rates but relatively low expenditures in 2006. These countries are classified as Tigers. Notably, when considered in isolation, the modeling outputs indicate that there are no Stars with both high forecast growth rates and high actual expenditures. Figure 4: Small and mature markets; transport 2006 actual expenditure and forecast average annual growth rate 2008–2012 5,000
€ millions
Austria Belgium Denmark Netherlands
Greece
Sweden Switzerland Turkey
Small and mature
3,000
Cyprus Czech Republic Portugal Slovakia
Finland Hungary Ireland Luxembourg Slovenia
0 0
3%
5%
Data: Eurostat Analysis: KPMG in the UK
The remaining countries are Small and mature markets. These have low forecast growth and with low 2006 transport infrastructure investment. Experience suggests that as countries become more developed the growth in infrastructure investment tends to slow but the classification of some of these countries as mature may actually mean that they are yet to go through a major period of significant expansion in transport infrastructure. Greece appears the most interesting in this group of countries – see Figure 4.
Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor 9
Figure 5 shows the cumulative investment in transport infrastructure expected to occur from 2008 to 2012. France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK are set to be the five highest-spending countries by a margin. As illustrated in Figure 6, these five countries represent 67 percent of the total expenditure over the period. Figure 5. Forecast cumulative expenditure on transport infrastructure 2008–2012 (in € millions) 5,000
0
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Data: Eurostat Analysis: KPMG in the UK
Figure 6. Forecast split in cumulative expenditure on transport infrastructure 2008–2012 United Kingdom
14% Rest of Europe Italy
33%
12% 14%
France
12% Spain Data: Eurostat Analysis: KPMG in the UK
15% Germany
45,000
50,000
10 Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor
A local touch In this section we combine KPMG member firms’ local insight with our econometric modeling with the aim of providing a fuller picture of investment in European transport infrastructure. In doing so we are able to reveal who we believe the top performers will be. In introducing information on what KPMG firms’ professionals see on the ground we rely more on judgement and less on hard and measurable indicators. Ireland illustrates this point extremely well. The country has had an expanding economy for the past decade but due to years of underinvestment in tougher economic times prior to that, its infrastructure had struggled to keep pace with the growing economy. This has gradually been turning around with a strong Government commitment to infrastructure delivery. The National Development Plan covering the period from 2000 to 2006 included significant expenditures on transport infrastructure. Ireland now has a National Development Plan from 2007 to 2013 in place. This plan includes expenditure on transport that is in the tens of billions of euros. The program of transport expenditure to 2016 has actually already been approved. Our baseline forecast for Ireland is very different from the above intelligence. This is because our model draws on historic long-term expenditure patterns in making predictions for the future. The key limitation of the model is indeed that it is unable to anticipate the type of change in investment pattern that has occurred in Ireland. Our model, however, remains a useful foundation from which to have discussions. It produces information which facilitates like-for-like comparisons across countries. The second column in Table 1 opposite, for example, very
quickly provides a clear indication of the relative size of any two transport infrastructure markets. We have opted not to capture future expenditure plans for each country. This is because of the challenge of making these numbers directly comparable. They are expressed in different currencies at different times and they often apply to different parts of the transport market. Some plans may also be influenced by the political process and the commitment to implementing them may vary. We have instead focused on assessing how the situation in each country interplays with our baseline estimates and other countries that are forecast to have similar prospects. Table 1 captures what we believe are the key considerations to make when debating the state of play in different markets in the light of our forecasts. The second column in Table 1 contains the estimated spending (2008-2012) as a ratio to the average spending for all 30 countries. The average predicted expenditure is â‚Ź10,396 million. The third column presents the same ratio for forecast growth. The average predicted growth is 3.27 percent per annum. The merit of the table is that it seeks to provide a quick assessment of the relative medium-term prospects in each market. The other columns are self-explanatory.
Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor 11
Table 1. KPMG's Key considerations for qualitative adjustment. Country
Ratio (size)
Ratio (growth)
Future Prospects
Germany
4.50
0.09
The budgeted 2008 transport investment (roads, rail and waterways only) is an increase on the previous year. Medium-term growth is expected to be modest.
No
France
4.33
0.81
The focus of transport infrastructure investment will be on enhancing high speed rail, highway as well as canal networks.
No
United Kingdom
4.13
0.94
Transport investment is anticipated to increase in the run-up to the London Olympics in 2012 with significant projects such as M25 and Thameslink in the pipeline.
No
Italy
3.68
0.62
A transport infrastructure investment budget for the period from 2008 to 2011 exists. It is in line with past investments. A set of priority projects have been identified, including a number of large road projects.
No
Spain
3.62
1.20
Ministry of Public Works and Transport has developed a Strategic Plan for Infrastructures and Transport (PEIT) 2005-2020. The planned expenditures include a significant increase on past expenditures.
Yes
Netherlands
1.22
0.51
Strong political support for accelerating the transport investment program exists. The investments are expected to focus primarily on roads, but rail is also anticipated to benefit.
No
Belgium
0.75
0.69
The focus will be on bringing other parts of the transport network to a standard equal to the high-speed rail network.
No
Switzerland
0.73
0.37
Transport infrastructure investment will be dominated by the multibillion Euro New Railway Link through the Alps (NEAT) program.
No
Greece
0.63
1.36
The expenditure from transport infrastructure is expected to shift towards other types of infrastructure in the post-Olympic era.
No
Sweden
0.62
0.81
The 2008 transport infrastructure budget is a reduction on the previous year’s. The Government is considering postponing some infrastructure investments due to inflationary pressures.
No
Austria
0.60
0.38
The Transport Master Plan envisages strategic investments into transport infrastructure in the medium term. The Danube rail axis, including the Vienna-Bratislava route, is highlighted as being of particular importance.
No
Poland
0.60
0.82
The Ministry of Infrastructure (previously the Ministry of Transport) has four separate programs for roads (approved), railways, airports and ports looking forward for around five years. The anticipated incrase in expenditure is very significant.
Yes
Turkey
0.59
0.60
The emerging market is hungry for transport infrastructure investments. Expenditure on rail projects and a program of road projects are expected in the medium term.
No
Ireland
0.58
1.39
An approved program of transport expenditure up to 2016 worth tens of billions of Euros is in place.
Yes
Denmark
0.55
0.89
The 2008 transport infrastructure budgets for road and rail both increase on the previous year’s. This trend in anticipated to continue in the medium term.
No
Norway
0.54
0.75
The transport investment is anticipated to increase. Projects in the pipeline include light rail in Bergen, high-speed rail in the southern parts of the country and the Rogfast road tunnel.
No
Portugal
0.41
0.43
Significant increase in expenditure is anticipated. The high-speed rail projects will be at a very advanced stage in 2012 and almost all of the road projects tendered at the moment will have been built.
Yes
Finland
0.39
0.94
The Government has shifted into committed transport investment programs that cover a parliamentary cycle. The current expenditure plans to 2011 are an increase on past expenditures.
No
Romania
0.32
2.17
Transport infrastructure investment should grow in the 2008-12 period given the country’s needs and the availability of EU funds.
No
Source: KPMG in the UK
Qualitative Adjustment (yes/no)
12 Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor
Country
Ratio (size)
Ratio (growth)
Future Prospects
Qualitative Adjustment (yes/no)
Czech Republic
0.30
0.59
The investment in transport infrastructure is anticipated to experience modest growth up to 2012.
No
Hungary
0.27
1.24
Over the next five years the motorway, secondary highway and railway networks will continue to be developed.
No
Slovakia
0.12
0.67
Transport infrastructure investment is expected to grow at a rate that is one of the fastest within the European Union.
Yes
Slovenia
0.10
1.21
A short-term reduction in transport expected following the reorganization of government departments.
No
Luxembourg
0.08
1.09
The budget for transport infrastructure will be increasing over the next few years with a heavy priority on adaptation and development of rail infrastructure.
No
Bulgaria
0.08
1.82
Investment leading up to 2013 is expected to increase with around half of the expenditure anticipated to be on roads.
No
Lithuania
0.07
1.55
Investment in transport infrastructure is expected to increase against a background of strong economic growth. An injection of EU cohesion funds is expected.
No
Latvia
0.06
1.92
The economic growth has been extraordinary of late. It is anticipated that it will place significant strains on transport infrastructure within the next five years.
No
Estonia
0.05
1.68
The transport infrastructure market is expected to grow but market capacity in terms of labor and construction materials may become an issue.
No
Iceland
0.05
1.55
The guiding principles for transport investment strategy until 2018 are in place. The infrastructure investment over the next three years will be dominated by road projects.
No
Cyprus
0.03
0.86
The transport infrastructure activity is anticipated to increase with significant activity across sectors, especially airports.
No
Table 1.
Source: KPMG in the UK
What KPMG member firms see on the ground suggests that our estimates included as Appendix 1 are conservative for most countries. In other words, actual expenditures are anticipated to be higher than we have predicted. The most likely explanation for this is that the assumption that transport infrastructure investment is equivalent to 4.24 percent of GFCF is not appropriate for all 30 countries.
This assumption is derived from the UK data which is the most detailed available and as such allows assumptions to be made. A country has been moved to a new category (Figure 7) if it was felt to have been initially (Figure 3) in the wrong peer group. Consequently, we moved Ireland, Poland, Portugal and Slovakia into the Tiger category.
Figure 7: Adjusted classification of European transport infrastructure markets
â‚Ź millions
Large and mature
Stars
France Germany Italy United Kingdom
Spain
Small and mature
Tigers
Austria Belgium Czech Republic Cyprus Denmark Finland Greece Hungary
Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Slovenia Sweden Switzerland Turkey
Bulgaria Estonia Iceland Ireland Latvia
Lithuania Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia
0 0 Data: Eurostat Analysis: KPMG in the UK
%
We also reclassified Spain as a Star market. It is important to note that we have removed the threshold values from the axis in Figure 7 as our classifications are no longer quantitative but are based on qualitative judgement.
Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor 13
Concluding thoughts The Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor is intended to allow infrastructure investment to be directly compared across geographies. This, our first edition, has looked into the medium-term future of European transport between 2008 to 2012. Taken alone, we believe our baseline forecasts present a step change in the quality of information available. Yet the true value can be more readily realized when combined with our member firms’ local insight. This provides the fuller picture of anticipated transport infrastructure investment in Europe and reveals which countries we believe the true performers will be: • Spain to emerge as a Star market • The Tigers: Bulgaria, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia and Romania • The five Large and mature markets of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK to make up 67 percent of all transport infrastructure investment from 2008-2012. We hope you find this publication provides you with valuable insight into investment in European transport infrastructure.
To discuss this report with the author, please do not hesitate to contact: Dr Kai Rintala Head of Infrastructure Intelligence KPMG in the UK Tel +44 (0) 207 694 1893 e-Mail kai.rintala@kpmg.co.uk
14 Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor
Behind the scenes: What we did and why
Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor 15
Our model uses Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) data from Eurostat6 as the base information. We believed that, for our purposes, this data was the most consistent and comparable across the markets. Harmonizing and using other types of data would have called for a considerably larger number of judgements to be made. Declared future expenditure plans, for example, are announced at different times and in different currencies while potentially influenced by an election cycle. Future infrastructure investments are often forecast using Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a reference point. Annual changes in GFCF tend not to be the same as those in GDP. Infrastructure investment often tracks GFCF more closely. It is for this reason that we have chosen to use GFCF as a basis for our estimate. We have assumed that transport infrastructure investment can be approximated at 4.24 percent of GFCF. Figure 8 shows the underlying components of the assumption.
GFCF, however, only includes new build. It does not include repair and maintenance. Reading Figure 8 from right to left, construction output breaks down into new-build construction as well as repair and maintenance. Some of this is repair and maintenance of existing infrastructure while the remainder is that of housing and commercial buildings. Using the UK Construction Statistics Annual we know that repair and maintenance is 46 percent of all construction output. Transport infrastructure is not the only form of infrastructure – see the centre of Figure 8. Again, the UK Construction Statistics Annual tells us that in the UK, roads, rail, airports and ports represent 56 percent of all infrastructure output.7 This percentage has been relatively stable over the long term.
We believe that UK National Accounts and the UK Construction Statistics Annual provide the most transparent and detailed information on the break down of transport infrastructure expenditure. We have consequently built the assumption that transport infrastructure can be estimated at 4.24 percent of GFCF. The assumption is based on the following: • New-build infrastructure is 4.08 percent of GFCF, • All infrastructure (including repair and maintenance) is 1.858 times newbuild infrastructure, and • Transport infrastructure is 56 percent of all infrastructure. These assumptions were applied to each European country to produce infrastructure investment data for years 1995 to 2006. The forecasts for 2007 to 2012 were produced based on straightline regression of each market from 1995 to 2006. The data produced by our model is included in Appendix 1.
Figure 8. Method for approximating transport infrastructure investment based on Gross Fixed Capital Formation.
Housing
Plant and equipment Gross fixed capital formation New build construction
Infrastructure Other
Such data was not available when we started. We used an econometric model to approximate past transport infrastructure investments (1995-2006) and to build predictive scenarios of future expenditures (2007-2012). Our model allowed us to generate baseline forecasts for each country that are grounded in hard evidence and influenced by as little judgement as possible. We have been explicit about judgements where we have made them.
Reading Figure 8 from left to right, GFCF breaks down into plant and equipment as well as new-build construction. All new-build construction falls either under housing, infrastructure or commercial building. UK National Accounts indicate that from 1998 to 2005 total infrastructure output (both transport and other infrastructure) in the UK was equivalent to 4.08 percent of GFCF.
Transport
This first edition of KPMG’s Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor explores the relative sizes of the European transport infrastructure markets based on comparable data and our member firms’ intelligence on each of the countries.
Commercial Source: KPMG in the UK
Eurostat, (2007), Table NAMA P16 K, Gross Fixed Capital Investment by 6 asset types – aggregates at constant 1995 prices and exchange rates in millions of Euros, Brussels, European Commission DBERR, (2007) Table 2.8, Contractors’ output by type of work, Construction Statistics Annual, TSO, Norwich 8 1.85 is the inverse of 54 percent. 6
7
New build construction Construction output Repair and maintenance
16 Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor
Appendix 1. Historical and forecast future transport infrastructure investment in 30 European countries (in â‚Ź millions)
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Austria
988
1013
1027
1063
1088
1159
1141
1072
1136
Belgium
1025
1040
1114
1153
1201
1255
1258
1229
1226
Bulgaria
48
38
30
41
49
57
70
76
86
Cyprus
41
44
42
45
45
46
48
52
52
Czech Republic
458
504
475
471
456
479
510
536
539
Denmark
628
665
734
793
793
853
841
842
840
Estonia
28
31
37
42
35
42
46
57
68
Finland
412
438
498
553
568
602
628
609
633
France
5581
5621
5645
6048
6548
7019
7186
7065
7224
Germany
8706
8661
8748
9095
9527
9813
9455
8881
8855
Greece
479
519
554
613
681
735
783
828
941
Hungary
228
244
266
301
319
345
362
399
408
Iceland
27
34
37
50
48
54
51
44
49
Ireland
369
433
511
588
675
727
726
751
794
5308
5405
5492
5726
5930
6307
6465
6722
6610
Latvia
17
21
25
41
38
42
47
53
59
Lithuania
37
45
57
69
65
59
67
74
84
Luxembourg
78
82
91
96
118
112
122
129
132
Netherlands
1681
1825
1980
2115
2298
2311
2315
2210
2176
Norway
646
711
824
936
885
854
845
835
837
Poland
583
698
851
970
1035
1063
960
899
899
Portugal
569
601
687
768
815
843
852
822
761
246
259
286
309
336
Italy
Romania Slovakia
138
180
205
224
189
171
193
194
189
Slovenia
83
91
104
113
134
136
138
140
150
3349
3436
3609
4017
4437
4731
4958
5126
5426
788
824
821
885
957
1012
1001
975
985
1247
1226
1252
1331
1351
1408
1359
1353
1336
856
977
1122
1078
909
1062
727
719
791
4527
4773
5098
5796
5967
6130
6288
6517
6588
Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom
Note: The figures for years 1996 to 2006 are actual expenditures. We assumed that transport infrastructure investment can be approximated by taking 4.24 percent of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in each of the 30 countries. The figures for years 2007 to 2012 are baseline forecast that build on hard evidence of the past. We produced the estimates by taking a straight-line regression of each of the markets from 1995 to 2006. The only exception is Romania for which data from 1995 to 1998 was unavailable. All figures are in 2005 prices to facilitate like-for-like comparisons.
Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor 17
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1137
1141
1184
1195
1211
1226
1241
1257
1272
1314
1402
1461
1448
1483
1518
1552
1587
1621
98
121
142
130
139
148
157
166
175
57
59
62
61
63
65
67
69
71
560
572
604
591
603
615
627
639
651
887
972
1098
1042
1075
1108
1140
1173
1206
71
78
96
90
95
101
107
112
118
656
681
708
744
768
793
818
843
868
7483
7785
8075
8305
8540
8776
9012
9247
9483
8839
8931
9476
9265
9293
9321
9349
9377
9405
994
981
1104
1137
1194
1251
1307
1364
1421
439
462
453
498
521
543
566
588
611
63
84
101
86
91
96
101
106
111
853
961
999
1047
1101
1155
1208
1262
1315
6719
6687
6843
7184
7337
7491
7645
7799
7952
74
91
108
99
107
114
121
129
136
97
108
127
118
125
132
139
145
152
134
137
141
153
159
165
171
177
183
2141
2205
2363
2410
2452
2495
2537
2579
2622
922
1025
1100
1047
1074
1102
1129
1157
1184
956
1018
1185
1139
1172
1205
1238
1270
1303
763
737
725
824
836
849
861
873
885
373
420
487
533
578
624
669
715
760
199
234
251
232
238
243
248
254
259
161
165
179
185
194
202
210
218
226
5700
6093
6508
6661
6949
7238
7527
7816
8105
1049
1133
1223
1191
1225
1259
1293
1327
1361
1397
1449
1455
1468
1486
1505
1523
1542
1560
1047
1299
1480
1162
1187
1211
1235
1259
1283
6974
7080
7660
7801
8061
8320
8579
8838
9097
18 Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor
KPMG’s Global Infrastructure practice KPMG’s Global Infrastructure professionals provide objective advisory support to our member firms’ clients throughout the lifecycle of complex infrastructure projects. Our member firms’ teams have extensive local and global experience, advising government organizations, contractors, operators, and investors in the following areas: •
Planning, structuring and management of new infrastructure investments
•
Procurement and financing support
•
Improvement and monitoring of construction and operations
•
Restructuring of distressed projects
•
Investment due diligence assistance
•
Infrastructure-related audit, tax, accounting and compliance issues.
For additional information regarding our firms services and capabilities, please see contacts on the back cover.
Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor 19
kpmg.com
Please contact: Americas Stephen Beatty KPMG in Canada Tel: +1 (416) 777 3569 e-Mail: sbeatty@kpmg.ca Richard Lee KPMG in the US Tel: +1 (212) 872 6560 e-Mail: richardlee@kpmg.com Asia Pacific Graham Brooke KPMG in Australia Tel: +61 (2) 9455 9091 e-Mail: gbrooke1@kpmg.com.au Europe, Middle East and Africa Nick Chism KPMG in the UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7311 8603 e-Mail: nick.chism@kpmg.co.uk
e-Mail: infrastructure@kpmg.com
The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. KPMG member firms ability to deliver some specific services may be limited in individual countries by local laws and governance restrictions.
Š 2008 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative.Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à -vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. Printed in United Kingdom. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. Designed and produced by KPMG LLP (UK)'s Design Services Publication name: Infrastructure trend monitor Publication number: 312548 Publication date: June 2008 Printed on recycled material.