Sunday, 13 November, 2011
Age of humanity?
This process accelerated swiftly after the Industrial Revolution a couple of centuries ago. Since then, human progress has been so rapid, and the resultant change to our planet so overwhelming, that mid-nineteenth century onwards, geologists have been arguing over whether or not we have caused the end of the current Holocene epoch, which started around 10,000 years ago. In the 19th century, the pace of development was comparatively slow and humankind had not become overtly dominant over nature. Yet 20th century ushered in an era of unprecedented development which caused incredible physical, chemical, ecological and biological changes in the structure of our world. This new world reignited the old discussion – what was the extent to which we had changed our planet – and the more ominous question, at what cost? Almost ten years ago, Nobel laureate chemist from Norway, Dr Paul Crutzen, dissatisfied with the current Holocene epoch in defining our changing reality, coined the term for a new epoch: “Anthropocene” – the new human. The idea is emblematic of the beginning of a new epoch - the age of humankind - whose actions are the driving force behind changing Earth’s environment.
Reasons for the changing world
Many experts believe that unprecedented population acceleration, and resultant development, has altered our climate, polluted our oceans, abused our natural resources, and has hastened the
activities, turned out to be spectacularly exaggerated. While talking to the UK-based paper Guardian, in January 2011, Dr Ehrlich candidly discussed the reason why his predictions didn’t come true during the timeframe he presented. He believed that the scenarios estimated by him had only been “postponed” owing to the unprecedented technological advancements which he “never anticipated”. This phenomenon – that humans are capable of extraordinary innovations in finding solutions to problems – is a belief starting to be shared by a growing number of experts.
Faith in numbers
Institute for Development Economics Research (UN-WIDER), over 50 percent of the world’s total assets are controlled by the top 2 percent of the world’s population. Overall, the richest 10 percent of adults account for 85 percent of the world’s assets.
Disparity in consumption
It was in the decade of 1970s that the world reached a point where our ecological footprint – measure of land and sea resources required to sustain a person, group or a nation – exceeded the Earth’s annual biocapacity. In other words, humans
The gist of their argument is this: if we don’t curb this population expansion, people will start to starve, Earth will become ecologically untenable, and the domino effect will lead to the ultimate destruction of all progress we have made so far. But how fair is it to put the burden of the globe’s problems solely on the number of people who exist in it?
Julian Simon, a wellknown and sometimes controversial population economist, was one of the few who were unguardedly optimistic about the growing number of people in the world. In his influential book The Ultimate Resource, Mr Simon debunked the theory of “limits to growth” as he put his confidence in “skilled, spirited and hopeful people who will exert their will and imaginations for their own benefit, and so, inevitably, for the benefit of us all.” He staunchly believed that when faced with life-threatening problems, human ingenuity would find solutions and ultimately contribute to better life for everyone. Mr Simon’s theory can be construed as overly optimistic. Nevertheless, it contains significant merit as it has continually disproved alarming hypothesis by NeoMalthusians scientists such Dr Ehrlich. An excellent example is taken from Elrich’s book, where he wrote, “I don’t see how India could possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980.” Later in the book he stated, “I have yet to meet anyone familiar with the situation who thinks that India will be self-sufficient in food by 1971”. Yet with the “green revolution” in India which drastically improved the food situation in the country, Dr Ehrlich was proven wrong once again, and his second prediction was removed from the book’s 1971 edition. Many analysts believe that population explosion is not the only cause of our dwindling natural resources and changing climate conditions. They believe human consumption pattern plays a much more significant role. Yet there are disagreements on the extent to which population acceleration fuels this over-consumption. Economic disparity is a factor not nearly considered enough since corrective steps to address this problem remain a political minefield. But the fact is, according to a 2008 study by United Nations University’s
started consuming renewable resources faster than ecosystems could regenerate them and their activities led to release of more carbon dioxide than the ecosystems could absorb. Ever since then, the trend has continued. Today, according to WWF biodiversity report, United Arab Emirates and Qatar, have the highest carbon footprint in the world with the United States a few paces behind. Overall, a mere 12 percent of the world’s total ecological footprint comes from 63 ASEAN and African Union countries – regions which house the world’s poorest population, which also have an increasing population rate. In contrast, 37 percent of the ecological footprint comes from 31 OECD countries – which include some of the world’s richest economies. These facts shake the basis of the argument which links only the number of people to an unstable planet. Even though the developed world has, to a large extent, successfully brought down fertility rates to sustenance levels, they still impact the global ecology disproportionately. To give context to this statement, consider this: if every person in the world started to live the same lifestyle as that of a UAE or American resident, we would need 4 to 5 more such planets to sustain everyone. Continued on page 8
2 A bright future? 6 The cradle of Sikhism
W
hen the first Homo sapiens walked the earth 200,000 years ago, their control over Mother Nature was minimal at best. Largely slave to her whims and fancies, they struggled to adapt to their environment. But with coming generations, man slowly and surely started testing his surrounding environment and exerting greater influence over it - moulding it to suit his personal benefit.
extinction of biodiversity. There is enough evidence to support this. Humank ind achieved the one billion mark only around 150 years ago. But since then, especially in the twentieth c e n t u r y, f i v e billion more people were born – an overwhelming number in just 100 years. Currently, it takes about 11 to 13 years for the world’s population to grow by another billion. Keeping such staggering statistics in mind, it is little wonder that the birth of symbolic seven billionth baby on October 31 2011, triggered another round of debates over the future of this planet and its inhabitants. Statements by public figures, essays by population economy experts, and blogs by concerned informed citizens, have mostly painted a doomsday scenario. The gist of their argument is this: if we don’t curb this population expansion, people will start to starve, Earth will become ecologically untenable, and the domino effect will lead to the ultimate destruction of all progress we have made so far. But how fair is it to put the burden of the globe’s problems solely on the number of people who exist in it? Critics have been predicting the downfall of humanity due to over population for centuries. In 1798 Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus, in An Essay on the Principle of Population, famously wrote, “The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man”. Today this Neo-Malthusianism approach is reflected by the proponents of population control who believe that the sheer number of people on the planet are adding to the problems of increasing poverty, dwindling natural resources, pollution, and climate change. Paul Ralph Ehrlich, an American biologist and currently the Bing Professor of Population Studies at Stanford University, co-authored a book with his wife in 1968 about the effects of population explosion. With a sensational title, The Population Bomb, the book gave apocalyptic warnings of worldwide famine in just over a decade: “In the 1970s […] Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. Population control is the only answer.” Not only were Dr Ehrlich’s these doomsday predictions were proven wrong, his other statements about the UK ceasing to exist as a state in 2000, or “all important animal life” in the oceans becoming extinct in 1970s and 1980s because of humans’
the review
While the population surge is a serious issue indeed, the graver problem facing the planet is that of our consumption patterns
A bright future? Examining alternative sources of energy The wide array of alternative energy sources in Pakistan begs the obvious question – why are these avenues not being explored by the government? By Bashir A. Gill
P
akistan’s energy crisis, of which we receive none too frequent reminders on account of the constant loadshedding, has caused the entire nation to plunge into the doldrums. And rightfully so - the existing power shortages are much more than mere irritants to the masses - they have resulted in the closure of many industries and have greatly hampered new investments, both local and foreign, in the economy. In order for the economy to grow, it is imperative that energy production be increased. Foolish energy policies and inept governance have resulted in the criminal wastage of the diversified mix of resources of power production that our nation has been endowed with. In the presence of such abundant sources of power generation, Pakistan should by no means be an energy starved country.
Such small canal water based and run-ofriver projects are not
politically divisive and are also free f r o m t h e
Sunday, 13 November, 2011
Existing scenario
Up till now, thermal and hydel have been the pillars of our energy supply with thermal energy contributing towards the bulk of the production. Yet imported oil is exceedingly expensive and with oil prices creeping up everyday, it is thoroughly impractical to persist with our current dependency on oil. Indigenous gas is growing increasingly scarce, as is evident from the massive gas load shedding, while transnational gas pipe lines remain beset by political difficulties and are a distant possibility at best. It is, thus, essential for the country to develop a more sustainable and affordable fuel mix by shifting dependency from oil and natural gas to more sustainable and feasible options like hydel, coal and renewable resources.
Hydel power
Despite the fact that the Kalabagh Dam remains mired in controversy, hydel is bound to play a dominant role in the future energy mix of Pakistan. There is a vast potential of up to 60,000 MW for hydel projects but the problem is that such projects are extremely capital intensive, with a gestation period of 8-10 years. Bhasha is a classic example of this. It has featured in the news for quite some years but unfortunately, not even the fundamentals of project implementation have been organized and international funding for this project has not yet materialized. To avoid this problem, it is imperative that we put aside our obsession with mega hydel projects and focus our energies (no pun intended) on constructing more feasible small hydropower projects which require much less cost and time to set up.
numerous other issues plaguing large dams. According to experts, dozens of potential sites are available for setting up such projects in Gilgit & Baltistan, AJ&K and Punjab, with a production capacity of up to 20,000 MW.
Coal
Thar Coal reserves were discovered by the Geological Survey of Pakistan in 1992. Widely considered to be the most viable and long-term solution to Pakistan’s energy crisis, (and relentlessly touted as such by successive governments) little work has actually been done to develop this option. A recent TV documentary on Thar Coal depicted an extremely dismal state of affairs; negligible ground work for exploitation of these reserves has been done and critical infrastructure for exploitation of coal is practically non-existent. It is utterly bewildering why a resource of such a vital importance has been ignored by governments for almost two decades, but one must cling on to the hope that recent incentives such as tax exemptions on mine machinery and plants will give some impetus to this development. Globally, coal fired power plants are disfavoured primarily due to harmful
remain m o r e economical compared to oil and nuclear.
Nuclear
environmental effects but they still play a central role in power generation, providing nearly half of total electricity compared to other sources world over. China relies heavily on coal which accounts for about 70% of its energy today. In India, the percentage is 60% and in Australia, a whopping 80%. Although no developed country has yet completely abandoned the use of coal for power, very few new plants have been set up. However, post the Fukushima nuclear disaster, coal will have to make up for the loss of nuclear generation particularly in Japan and the developed world, and world coal prices are shooting up resultantly. It is expected that in spite of opposition from environmentalists many countries, particularly the developing ones, will still opt for coal fired plants for electricity as they are unwilling to sacrifice development of their economies - even with added costs of improvements in clean coal technologies coal fired technologies
The oil shock of 1973 sent the industrialized world scrambling for cheaper and reliable sources of energy, nuclear power emerged as the best option. From an engineering perspective, it is generally considered the most efficient and clean way to produce power, it produces effectively no greenhouse gases and the current nuclear power plants have contributed to a 10% decrease in global emissions. However, the nuclear sector was dealt a hug blow by the nuclear accident at Three Mile Island (USA) on March 28, 1979. Rising fossil fuel costs, political uncertainty and pollution managed to make nuclear power attractive again in spite of serious doubts about its safety and reliability. Unfortunately, just as the sector was all set to fully recover from the coma induced by the Three Mile Island accident, in April 1986, Chernobyl happened, and the world looked on in horror as history’s worst nuclear accident unfolded before it. The malfunctioning reactor spewed radioactivity into the air equivalent to that of 400 Hiroshima
bombs. Of those sent in to fight the fires more than 200 suffered acute radiation sickness and 30 died. Another 4000 people have died prematurely from cancer and related effects. 350000 people were evacuated from the area and a 1000 sq mile evacuation zone continues to operate to date around the burnt out reactor. In spite of this horrific accident, advocates of nuclear power aided by the persuasive and powerful nuclear sector lobby successfully managed to rebuild its reputation as one of the cleanest and safest sources of power available. The population of nuclear power plants across the world continues to grow and nuclear power contributes about 14% of the overall power generation of the world. Pakistan has two nuclear reactors of 300 MW each at Chashma in addition to an old one near Karachi. Pakistan has plans to set up 10 more nuclear plants and obtain 8800MW from nuclear by 2030. Japan’s nuclear plants supplied about 30% of its electricity and the government had chalked out plans to raise that to 50%. Come Fukushima, and the crisis was back to square one. It prompted many countries to reassess their decisions regarding energy security which is considered the primary driving force for development. Many countries have decided to take measures to get rid of nuclear reactors, Germany shut down seven reactors with further plans to shut down all its reactors by 2022. Plans for nuclear expansion in France, Russia and even the UK are being reviewed or rolled back. Japan has recognized that it will not, as planned, increase nuclear generation by a third over the next decade. Even China has announced a 10% cutback in its nuclear building, US is principal exporter of reactors but it currently has just two under construction on its territory. Denmark, Greece, Ireland and Portugal are strong antinuclear and Switzerland has stopped all nuclear power projects. Italy has consistently voted to ban nuclear power for decades, Even in India, environmentalists and residents have campaigned to halt construction of six nuclear plants due to start in 2013 at Jaitapur on India’s west coast in Maharashtra, which will be one of the world’s biggest nuclear facilities. Fears have been widely expressed about the safety, security and reliability of Pakistan’s nuclear power plants particularly the one near Karachi (KANUPP). The absence of safety culture, lax standards of supervision and poor oversight can lead to accidents at our plants which would be devastating due its location and proximity to Karachi - coastal winds could spread radiation all over Karachi in case of radiation leaks with disastrous consequences. Add to this the problem of on-site storage of spent fuel and the worse case scenario becomes increasingly grisly. Nuclear power has its peculiar nuances and the environmental impact of carbon emissions associated with fossil fuels cannot be ignored. Therefore, development of cleaner mechanisms like renewables as alternative energy sources is essential to secure a bright, sustainable and environmentally friendly energy future for our coming generations.
Renewable sources: Solar and wind energy
Global interest in renewables has seen ups and downs over the past few decades particularly in the 1970s and 1980s. These waves of popularity were to a large extent related to the hike in prices of oil. As soon as the oil prices stabilized, interest in renewables simmered down. However, this time on, interest in renewables is expected to steadily increase due largely to global concerns over accelerating climate change, energy security with locally focussed energy sources, oil and gas price spikes, supply and demand fundamentals of traditional fuels, the declining trend of the renewables energy prices with the possibility of approaching parity with the traditional alternatives in the near future and technological improvements which have strengthened faith in renewables. China’s production of green technology has grown by a remarkable 77% per year and it eearned 44 billion euros from green technology alone last year. The fact that more than half of the power generation capacity constructed during 2008 in Europe and USA was renewable is further testimony to its increasing popularity. Pakistan has the potential to become an important producer of renewable energy. For Pakistan, solar and wind energy appear to be the best options. Pakistan is located on the sun belt with favourable climatic conditions and environment for solar power. However, apart from some isolated cases of solar panels put up to power water pumps in some remote areas or some small scale installations of roof top solar panels, no integrated or comprehensive programme exists for exploiting solar power on large scale. Similarly, although Keti- BanderGharo Jhimpir wind corridors have been identified and marked for the development of wind energy projects and a pilot project consisting of 5 x 1.2 MW wind turbines is under implementation with the aid of a Turkish firm using German technology – much, much more needs to be done. If impediments can be removed, 1200 MW can be produced from wind turbines in just three years. Jhimpir is located in one of the best natural wind corridors, the speed of wind in this corridor is twice the speed required for power generation. It is believed that there is a potential of 5000 MW from wind power. Running cost of windmills is almost negligible and initial expenditure of $1 million per MW is quite competitive with other sources.
For the present, all the energies of the UNSC, the Arab League, Turkey and the world at large should be directed towards one single goal: reining in the hawks in Israeli By Khawaja Manzar Amin
H
Suez Canal debacle, ‘I owe the bomb to them (Israelis), I owe the bomb to them’, after talks with Golda Meir and the aforementioned Shimon Peres? French socialist Prime Minister Guy Mollet. Is it just and fair that ‘because of its widespread and emotional support in the US, Israel should be held to a different moral standard’? And the Israelis have themselves proved why as ‘rootless cosmopolitans’ before 1948 they were such unwelcome guests in their adopted lands and seldom for long. Israel has a huge and sophisticated nuclear arsenal of its own that ensures its Samson
ardly a few weeks after the Libyan
conquest, another large-sized Muslim country finds itself in the cross-hairs. The intended victim this time is Iran, a preemptive strike the watchword. No doubt buoyed by the easy acquisition of so rich a prize as Tripoli, Israeli President Shimon Peres (ironically, along with Earnest David Bergman, the father of the Israeli atomic bomb project) led the familiar ominous chorus against Iran’s nuclear programme possibly to justify a new misadventure. The chauvinists in the US military are already baying, ‘Real men go to Tehran’. The immediate reason for the latest verbal round was the much-trumpeted release of an International Atomic Energy Agency report which would provide, so it was alleged beforehand by the interested parties, irrefutable proof of Iranian moves towards making an atomic bomb. But this has turned out to be a damp squib, with an angry Russia denouncing the war-cries as an intentional ‘whipping up of emotions’ and rightly sensing that ‘any additional sanctions against Iran will be seen as an instrument for regime change’. A cautious China is even more cautious and guarded in its comments this time. After the laughable fairytale of the assassination plot against the Saudi ambassador in Washington, the warmonger’s credibility lies at rock bottom. And the high cost (in terms of civilian deaths and destruction of infrastructure) in Iraq and Libya, has alerted the two vetowielding members (one fallen, the other still rising) of the UNSC to the danger of allowing ‘innocuous’ resolutions to be passed unchecked in the world body. As the old Chinese (can’t avoid them anywhere now) proverb goes, ‘a man who has been bitten by a serpent is afraid of a rope’. The role of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states in this whole affair is negative and inexplicable. From secret calls to the US to ‘cut off the head of the snake’ to the UAE ambassador’s interview openly endorsing an attack on Iran, to the alleged offers of airbases and air space to attacking warplanes, the Arab states are playing straight into the enemies’ hands. They seem to be following a one-pronged agenda. It consists, simply stated, in ‘cutting one’s nose to spite one’s face’! The Sunni-Shiite sectarian divide is not only playing havoc with the unity of the Islamic world, it is allowing the new imperialists to annihilate once powerful Muslim countries one by one with brute force. Since Gamal Abdel Nasser, keeping the Arab world in disarray has been a major plank of Israeli foreign policy, and the success is there for all to see more than ever, today. For obvious reasons, the Israeli Zionists have always preferred the conservative element over the nationalists and the ‘radicals’ among its Arab neighbours. Unfortunately the pattern of destruction being followed also involves attaining ‘legality’ under vague UN resolutions, with some member states deliberately abstaining from voting on a particular resolution in
order t o achieve the requisite ‘unanimity’ of nine votes (out of 15). This practice needs some review, to ensure responsibility. In the case of Libya, the Arab League not only voted for the enemy but rooted for it, Qatar sent in its ‘forces’ : the oil-rich country now lies in tatters, facing the threat of a future sub-division along East-West lines, as in the case of North and South Sudan. And the winner is… There also remains the unanswered question whether the US Senators and Congressmen who regularly grill defence and intelligence officials over the Iranian nuclear programme, ever inquired as mercilessly about Dimona and the goingson there? What of the policy experts, academics and journalists now crying hoarse over Iran? When Israel was building its own bomb, the cry among the careerists of the US intelligence community was, ‘don’t stir up the waters’, and ‘don’t complain, you might get your head handed back’. France’s voice is one of the shrillest (not that Britain and Germany lag far behind) when it comes to matters concerning the Middle East (Palestine excepted) and Iran. French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe put up an emotional show when arguing for a UNSC-sponsored intervention in Libya, and has now turned his verbal (so far) guns on Iran. Who built the Dimona reactor ‘for peaceful purposes’, without the provision of international safeguards and inspections? France. As revealed by investigative journalist Seymour Hersh in The Samson Option , who remarked after the 1956
option of taking the whole world with it in case it faces defeat in a future war. Then why begrudge the Iranians the capability to the extent of destabilizing the entire region and beyond, if at all they are actually going for it? After all, Mutual Assured Destruction does ensure some restraint, it has worked so far in the sub-continent, though precariously on occasions? Perhaps it is the fear that the day Iran gets the bomb, many Israelis will be tempted to take the first flight out on a one-way ticket to safer and now more hospitable climes (no more pogroms, no more blood-libel cases nowadays). More than a million Israelborn Jews have already left. And the Zionist dream of eretz Israel, might lose its ‘reason for being’ of its own accord over a longer period of time. For the present, all the energies of the UNSC, the Arab League, Turkey and the world at large should be directed towards one single goal: reining in the hawks in Israeli with warnings of severe sanctions and repercussions if they make a unilateral ‘rogue’ attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which would surely pave the way to ‘endless war’. And Endless Night.
Celebrating Guru Nanak Devji’s 543rd birth anniversary
The cradle of
Sikhism
06 - 07
Sunday, 13 November, 2011
the review
By Adeel Makhdumi
As the sun sets, it is tradition to sing at the local Gurdwaras as an act of devotion and sign of reverence. The devotees sang in lilting tones - in time to the accompanying instruments, the tabla and harmonium. Together they spun an enchanting melody. The hymns called ‘Kirtan’ were in a language I was unable to comprehend, but the music was familiar and traditional - similar to what we are accustomed to listening at Sufi shrines. Children ran around, practicing sword fights using wooden swords and engaging in other sports
D
espite the dwindling presence of Sikhism in Pakistan, there exists a deep connection between the two - one can understand the attachment that Sikhs have to this land and their resentment at having to relinquish Western Punjab to Muslim control. The Partition of Punjab, and subsequent carnage, is burnt into the minds of both the Sikhs and Muslims but the former had to bear the added grief of being wrenched apart from their holy places and watching them subsumed by the newly formed state. Formerly known as Rai-Bhoi-Di-
Talwandi, Nankana Sahib is a town in the Pakistani province of the Punjab, located a bit over a hundred kilometers southwest of Lahore. It is the birthplace of Guru Nanak Dev, the founder of the Sikh religion in the 15th century. Guru Nanak was born on 15 April, 1469 into a Hindu Bedi Kashatriya family but later broke with his traditional religious upbringing and birthed a new religion. Nankana Sahib holds significant historic value for tourists and momentous religious value for the Sikhs in Pakistan, India and other parts of the
Upon entering, the breathtaking and majestic interior immediately transports one back to the pre-partition era. There are obvious influences of customary Muslim Haveli/Mosque architectural design with delicate arches, beautifully carved wooden doors, and incredible white marble slabs used for flooring world. It remains a popular pilgrimage destination for Sikh Yatarees who come here to mark Guru Nanak’s birthday every year, known as the ‘Prakash Divas’ of Guru Nanak Dev. Sikh shrines in Pakistan are managed by a Waqf Board and Sikh Jathas visit these shrines every year on four different occasions. Visitors get a rare chance to interact with what is remaining of the Sikhs of Pakistan. These Sikhs are of both Punjabi and Pathan decent who speak dialects of their respective languages. Of the numerous Gurdwaras populating Nankana Sahib, ‘The Janam Asthan remains the best known of the lot. This was Guru Nanak’s
Within the vicinity there are other fascinating places as well – there is one historic tree where a Sikh leader was hung by the Gurdwara’s Hindu occupants during the British Raj. He, along with his companions, had come there to negotiate the terms of release of the Gurdwara parental home and his birthplace which was rebuilt into a Gurdwara in the nineteenth century by Maharaja Ranjit Singh - the then Sikh Emperor of Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, Peshawar, Kangra and Hazara. The Janam Asthan is probably the largest and the most spectacular Gurdwara in the region. One is quite awed by its external architecture which bears resemblance to small, but welldesigned Mughal fortress. Upon entering, the breathtaking and majestic interior immediately transports one back to the pre-partition era. There are obvious influences of customary Muslim Haveli/ M o s q u e architecture with delicate a r c h e s , beautifully carved wooden doors, and incredible white marble slabs used for flooring. The Guru’s birthplace is preserved
in a small room that can only accommodate a few devotees at a given time. Non-Sikhs are welcomed inside and treated as guests; devotees will sometimes even take the time out to show tourists around and narrate enchanting tales from Sikh history. Within the vicinity there are other fascinating places as well – there is one historic tree where a Sikh leader was hung by the Gurdwara’s Hindu occupants during the British Raj. He, along with his companions had come there to negotiate the terms of release of the Gurdwara as they believed that the Hindus were not only neglecting to care for it, but were also actively desecrating it with the activities they engaged in inside it. Another breathtaking place inside the Janam Asthan is its enormous washing area for the devotees to avail of before their prayers – it is deep enough for one to sink in completely, however most devotees tend to sit at the banks of the pond-like structure for a wash. Everyone is requested to put their cigarette packs away before they are allowed inside, as the act of bringing cigarettes inside is considered akin to bringing alcohol into a mosque. Visitors are also directed by the keepers to take their shoes off, cover their heads, and wash their feet (extremely refreshing in this heat) in order to enter the Gurdwara. It is
also obligatory to face holy spots at all times - someone will correct you if you turn your back towards them. One is also expected to refrain from shaving inside the Gurdwara or within its washrooms. The local community in Nankana Sahib is predominantly Sikh, and in addition to looking after their places of worship, they carry out normal businesses in the area. One can observe Sikh toddlers in their turbans running around or on their bicycles rushing and chasing each other. Busy in their sport, some may suddenly
find a tourist distracting enough to stop and give a welcoming smile, others may choose to ignore. Guru Nanak Devis believed to be endowed with a special gift, displayed an interest in religious subjects when he was as young as five years old. His sister and his Muslim landlord were the first ones to recognise divine qualities in the child and encouraged him to study and travel. His landlord is said to have reported witnessing a poisonous black cobra providing shade to the Guru protecting him from harsh sunlight while sleeping. As a young man he herded cattle as alving and spent long hours in meditation or conversation with Muslim and Hindu companions, seeking knowledge about their religions. He was married at the young age of 16 and fathered two boys. According to Sikh tradition, he had a vision at the age of 30 (in the year 1499 AD) while he was bathing on the bank of a local stream after which he disappeared. The villagers assumed that the he had drowned; however, despite repeated and thorough searches his body was not recovered. He reappeared after three days and on the next day he announced having being taken to God’s court and had been divinely illuminated. Upon his return he uttered the famous words: “Let God’s grace be the mosque, and
devotion the prayer mat. Let the Quran be the good conduct. Let modesty be compassion, good manners fasting, you should be a Muslim the like of this. Let good deeds be your Kaaba and truth be your mentor. Your Kalma be your creed and prayer, God would then vindicate your honour.” (Majh) Guru Nanak’s teachings are recorded as verses in ‘Guru Granth Sahib’ written in the Gurmukhi script (Indian Punjabi script) which has been translated into numerous languages. Its first verse reads: ‘There is but one God whose name is true—the Creator’. A monotheist religion, Sikhism puts great emphasis in the unity of a Supreme Being, a single and unmatchable higher entity–the commander and creator of the universe. “hs traditionally believe in a supreme godhead who is incomprehensible and formless. This Supreme Being is masculine and is described as the ‘indestructible’ similar to Abrahamic Religions. There is but One God, His name is Truth, He is the Creator, He fears none, he is without hate, He never dies, He is beyond the cycle of births and death, He is self illuminated, He is realized by the kindness of the True Guru. He was True in the beginning, He was True when the ages commenced and
has ever been True, He is also True now.” (Japji) SikThis young religion draws from both Hinduism and Islam in addition to its own unique characteristics. Guru Nanak preached a code of high morals, purity of character, love and compassion, submission to the Guru, justice, charity, temperance and truthfulness, sacrifice and love, to name a few - not to mention that his teachings strongly condemn anger and unkindness, lust, hate, vanity, and greed. Commentators within the secular corridors of the subcontinent consider this as an effort to unify Hindus and Muslims of India to create a one strong Indian nation - a similar effort is viewed to be made by Emperor Akbar when he tried to promote ‘Dine-Elahi’ during his reign. Dr H.R. Gupta, a renowned historian, writes: “Nanak’s religion consisted in the love of God, love of man and love of godly living. His religion was above the limits of caste, creed and country. He gave his love to all, Hindus, Muslims, Indians and foreigners alike. His religion was a people’s movement based on modern conceptions of secularism and socialism, a common brotherhood of all human beings. Like Rousseau, Nanak felt 250 years earlier that it was the common people who made up the human race Ihey had always toiled and tussled for princes, priests and politicians. What did not concern the common people was hardly worth considering. Nanak’s work to begin with assumed the form of an agrarian movement. His teachings were purely in Puniabi language mostly spoken by cultivators. Obey appealed to the downtrodden and the oppressed
peasants and petty traders as they were ground down between the two mill stones of Government tyranny and the new Muslims’ brutality. Nanak’s faith was simple and sublime. It was the life lived. His religion was not a system of philosophy like Hinduism. It was a discipline, a way of life, a force, which connected one Sikh with another as well as with the Guru.” The popular perception is that Sikhism was limited to the Punjab region, and that all Sikhs are Punjabis. However the truth is that Sikhism spread across other regions through migration and conversion, including but not limited to the northwest frontiers of the subcontinent, Afghanistan, Sindh and Kashmir. Nankana Sahib is a place to visit for all interested in Indo-Pak history, history of religions, and students of comparative religious studies. It is highly recommended for those who want to compare Hindu/Muslim and Sikh architectural design. While photography is prohibited inside the Janam Asthan, one may take pictures inside other Gurdwaras. The government has developed a road network connecting Nankana Sahib to the Lahore-Islamabad Motorway and the GT road. Tourists can drive down to Nankana Sahib from Lahore, enjoying the beautiful countryside, in less than two hours. One is required to take ones original National ID card or a valid passport as it is a prerequisite to prove your citizenship at the gate of the Janam Asthan. When traveling by road from Lahore for a daytrip, leave early since it is a one and a half to two hour commute – while a good three or four hours are essential for truly explore the place. Nankana Sahib appears as somewhat of a peaceful island where both Sikhs and Muslims live in religious harmony, integrated in a single, tolerant community.
08
Sunday, 13 November, 2011
Seven billion and counting... From title page
Population expansion and economic growth
Population explosion puts pressure on weaker economies especially if the policy makers do not devise effective development plans. But a rising population brings with it a set of increased opportunities. Controlling the number of people on the planet is not the only solution to the world’s problem – the United Nations predicts the populace will steady itself at 9 billion in the middle of this century, and will start decreasing slowly by the end of it. Contrarily, larger percentage of people in the workforce has contributed to economic growth of a country. Take Japan for example. With the world’s highest number of elderly people – one in four is over 65 – Japan has the lowest fertility rates of 1.2 children per woman, well below the level to sustain the population. At its height of economic progress, the country had a huge percentage of young adults contributing to its GDP. But since the population started ageing and fertility rates declined, Japan experienced a “lost decade” of economic stagnation in the 1990s, one from which it has not yet recovered. Other countries maintaining their economic boost in today’s recession include the two with the world’s largest population – India and China. With more than a billion people in each country, both have an increasing growth rate. China’s one-child policy will probably lead to the world’s biggest elderly population in this century, and India’s increasing economic divide might translate into more poverty for its lower income classes. But better governance policies can help stabilise their economies in the long run, while also putting more focus on elevating the quality of an ordinary person’s life.
Conclusion
Earth has immense capacity to regenerate itself, if we allow it enough time to do so. As the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said, we live in a contradictory world. This is a place of wild riches and abject poverty, abundant food but one billion hungry stomachs, unprecedented breakthroughs in health, but millions of deaths due to preventable water-borne diseases. All of this exists because of corrupt governance and incompetent development planning. Overpopulation is a source of concern, but the solution is tied to addressing both expanding number of people and inefficient consumption of natural resources. Only when we rise above selfish personal motives and start thinking about the collective good of humanity, can we hope for a society with equal opportunities of personal growth.
Analysing the data
Estimating the world’s population is no ordinary tribulation. With varied access to demographic data and key indicators from each country, the actual population of the world remains a mere estimate, and not an absolute figure. For this reason, there is difference in estimation of the population depending on which agency you refer to. According
to the UN agencies, the world’s population reached the seven billion mark on October 31, 2011. But the United States Census Bureau estimates that we won’t reach this figure till February 2012. These agencies count on government censuses, surveys and other data to calculate statistics for each country. All data is then “aggregated and interpolated” to project the world’s population growth. Considering the margin of error in census data and fertility and mortality rates, especially in the developing world with unrecorded births and deaths, the prediction of number of people can vary by many millions. The statistical deviation in estimating the total number of population, even if inaccurate by a mere two percent, could result in addition or subtraction of over 50 million people. Even the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affair (UNDESA) admits that it is impossible to exactly determine the world’s population with “an error margin smaller than about 12 months.” This means that the actual seven billionth baby of the world could have been born up to six months before or after October 31. Thus choosing multiple babies around the world to represent the seven billionth milestone is more of a symbolic gesture by the UN to highlight the challenges of growing population and the opportunities it represents.
2,000 Years of Population Growth Year
Population
0000 1804 1927 1959 1974 1987 1998 2011
300 million 1 billion 2 billion 3 billion 4 billion 5 billion 6 billion 7 billion
The population growth rate has increased steadily over time but has shot up exponentially in the last century. It took humankind over 1800 years to increase its numbers from 300 million to one billion. But in the last 100 years, we have managed to add six billion more people to the count. Experts believe with decreasing birth rates across the globe, the population will increase to over 10 billion before we reach a stable populace.
Population boom: What the future holds for Pakistan While statistics reveal a bleak state of affairs, there are a number of paths open to us if we seize the opportunity now By Bushra Sultana
T
o say the year 2011 has been eventful is perhaps an understatement. This was a year in which the world witnessed the death of the most notorious post 9/11 terrorist, saw the Arab world awaken to democratic ideals and old dictatorial regimes subsequently topple, battled natural disasters which continued to hammer countries across the globe, and braced itself to the mounting rage of the people against economic hardship as upheavals took place across developing and developed nations. Amidst all this one small news item made people pause and take note; this year, on October 31, the world welcomed its seven billionth inhabitant. On the local front, apart from customary articles appearing in newspapers and some mandatory seminars conducted by NGOs, little attention was paid to what a booming population means for the country. The figures coming out of Pakistan this year are not encouraging. According to the latest Economic Survey of Pakistan, published by Ministry of Finance, Pakistan’s total fertility rate remains the highest among all South Asian countries at 3.5 percent. The United Nations Population Division projects Pakistan to maintain this fertility rate in the next few decades, ahead of India, China, Indonesia and Bangladesh. In contrast, the country’s real GDP growth rate was estimated at 2.4 percent in 2010-2011, the lowest among larger South Asian countries like India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Pakistan’s population has surged from 32.5 million in 1947 to the latest estimates of 177.1 million. To put it in perspective, more people have been born in the country than the entire current population of Afghanistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Saudi Arabia and Iraq combined. As of now, Pakistan is ranked sixth most populated country in the world, with a population more than that of Russia’s. With such staggering statistics, there is little wonder Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani has tied all hopes of development and economic prosperity of the country to the population issue and has even stated the current year will be declared the “population year”. Yet it is important to understand what this surge in numbers means for us. On one hand, it is a cause of concern considering the dismal state of our economy, rising poverty and increasing water scarcity (water availability has decreased from 5,000 cubic meters per capita in 1950s to less than 1,500 in 2009). On the other hand, the fact that more than half of our population is under the age of 25 means that we have an extraordinary potential available to us – a potential which can only be realised if we invest in educating and training our youth. It thus holds extra importance that this “population year” has also been termed as the year of education in the country, in wake of Prime Minister Gilani declaring an education emergency. Indeed, the state of our education warrants this dramatic title. It is estimated that only 69 percent of children aged 5-9 are enrolled in school. One in ten children who don’t attend primary school in the world lives in Pakistan. The number drops further for
higher education. Female literacy figures are even more dismal with an overall 57 percent literacy rate which translates into higher literacy rates in some urban areas while below 30 percent in some of the remotest regions of the country.
Correlation between women’s independence and fertility rates
To tackle Pakistan’s momentum of population growth, the reasons why families in lower income brackets tend to have more children must be considered. Various factors contribute to this reality. Major reasons are a lack of the mother’s decision-making power in the household in addition to inadequate knowledge about family planning through the use of contraceptives. The contraceptive prevalence rate in Pakistan is not only the lowest in South Asia, but also the lowest among other Muslim countries including Indonesia, Egypt and the politically conservative Iran. Others factors for higher birth rate include the need for more members to ultimately help battle economic poverty, desire for male offspring for care in old age, and limited participation of women in the labour market. In Pakistan, female education can help control the burgeoning population. Policy advisor and development practitioner, Raza Rumi agrees that “education and [population] planning are interlinked. Data show that girls with secondary education have lower fertility rates”. Two factors contribute to this. One, with girls in schools, their marriages are delayed, thus reducing the couple’s fertility years. Second, and more significantly, higher education brings greater participation of women in the labour market, leading to greater economic independence. A similar example can be seen in neighbouring India where there is a marked difference in fertility rates between the North and South regions. The National Family Health Survey of 2005-06 reveals that the total fertility rate in the South remains either at replacement levels – fertility rate required to maintain the current number of population – or lower, while population growth in the North is much higher. This discrepancy in total fertility rates has been attributed to women’s higher educational levels and economic status in the South. But the task of educating our youth, especially women, isn’t an easy one. To begin with, Pakistan is not exactly a women-friendly country. In fact in a survey by Thomson Reuters earlier this year, 213 gender experts ranked Pakistan the third most dangerous country for women in the world. Added to that, the government’s focus on education and healthcare, two primary factors in demographic control, has been grossly inadequate. Policy-makers tend to focus more on infrastructure development rather than investing in the social sector. This lack of attention on education and healthcare has caused unnecessary hindrances in the nation’s growth.
Power in numbers
Today Pakistan is at a crossroads. With one of the highest percentage of young people in the world, the country can reap huge economic benefits if the youth’s potential can be harnessed through effective policies.
With a decline in fertility rates at sustenance levels or below in much of the developed world, the population in “old industrial economies” is ageing and falling in numbers. These countries, according to economist Shahid Javed Burki, are now relying on nations with “large and growing populations” to help contribute to their economies. In an essay for Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars, Dr Burki states that this changing demographic balance has resulted in outsourcing employment opportunities – a phenomenon from which India is already reaping big rewards and one which can provide great benefits to Pakistan as well. If we can properly educate our youth and equip them with necessary skills currently in global demand, Dr Burki believes that “a million additional people could be gainfully employed in this time of economic activity over the next three to five years”. As a result, our economy will also get a boost as the IT sector alone “could provide $20 billion in export earning a year”. The window of demographic opportunity, according to experts at the World Bank, will be available to Pakistan for a little less than three decades. By converting our numbers into an economic force we can come out at the top of this “population crisis”. But the important factor to remember while considering any kind of policy planning is women’s involvement in this economic growth. Pakistani women currently make up only 20 percent of formal labour market. Their increased participation in skilled workforce will be beneficial not only to individual household income, but to the national economy as well.
Education – our best bet
The primary focus of policy-makers needs to be on revamping our education system if the dangers of overpopulation are to be neutered. Mr Rumi believes that though we have the “basic infrastructure of schools and [education] systems” the problem remains at the governing level where education needs to be decentralised and taken out of the control of provincial bureaucracy. Mosharraf Zaidi, policy development advisor, agrees that the current governance paradigm is not conducive for guaranteeing quality primary education to all children. The changes needed, he states, are obvious and widely known. The “government must de-link teaching jobs from other civil service jobs, eliminate the subsidization of political workers lifestyles through teaching, enable a greater share of fiscal allocations to alternative delivery mechanisms, like the Punjab Education Foundation”. The tasks which policy advisors recommend are daunting yet achievable. Mr Zaidi agrees, “Many countries have turned around their education emergencies, Pakistan too can”. But the first step has to be a “normative commitment” to doing so - a commitment not yet visible. Spending a mere 2.1 percent of the GDP on education is not nearly enough to bring about any education revolution. But unless the provincial governments are determined to improve their record, the current opportunity to turn around this massive issue of overpopulation into economic benefit will soon be over.