Real Possibilities in Spatial Computing

Former Microsoft tech evangelist Robert Scoble, no stranger to augmented or virtual reality, today serves as chief strategy officer of spatialcomputing consultant Infinite Retina. He’s perhaps best known for his technology-focused blog, Scobleizer. Luckbox asked him to forecast what’s ahead in 2020 for AR and VR.

Get ready to blend the real and the virtual. In the coming decade, spatial computing is poised to change the way people live, work and play. All it requires is putting on an almost normal-looking pair of eyeglasses to connect with super-sophisticated cameras, sensors, computers and the digital cloud. The combination of devices creates a “virtual being”—a digital partner that not only knows where it is in space but also understands a lot about the person using it.

The phrase “mixed reality” is tossed around to describe the way spatial computing superimposes digital creations on the natural world. A blank wall can become a video screen for Hollywood’s latest box office hit. A barren extra bedroom is transformed into a welcoming pub. An utter void is filled by a three-dimensional object that the user can circle to view from different angles.

There’s also talk of humans and machines forming “partnerships” to traverse the landscape together and manipulate objects cooperatively via the medium of spatial computing. Digital devices could even serve as prophets, employing prediction engines to foretell the actions of humans and other machines. Combining these capabilities yields what some view as the birth of something almost alive.

Four eyes

But back to the eyeglasses. Qualcomm, a chipmaker that licenses other companies to use its patented technology, announced in November that its new chipset will power devices that look a lot like vision-correction glasses but have screens and seven cameras.

Qualcomm isn’t alone in conjuring up tech magic in eyewear. Microsoft has already introduced the second version of its HoloLens. Apple has leaked word that it plans to reveal related products by 2022, and Facebook is reportedly working on a similar product.

So, what are they seeing with these 21st century spectacles? Well, spatial computing creates a new dimension where humans, robots or virtual/synthetic beings move around as they work or play. The purest forms are augmented and virtual reality (AR and VR), but a new wave of devices is coming in the next one to three years, and that broadens human horizons and brings new opportunities to investors.

Spatial Computing is also at work in robots and autonomous cars, which use similar sensor arrays and artificial intelligence to track objects. Qualcomm, for example, has announced new AI (artificial intelligence) capabilities that detect and identify objects, which will enable developers to add new capabilities to spatial computing applications.

Spatial computing can be done on mobile phones, but poorly, because mobile phones aren’t optimized for moving around inside computing. But by the end of this year, new iPhones will arrive with more detailed 3D sensors that will enable developers to add some of these capabilities.

Meanwhile, glasses that grant entry to this new world are starting to arrive on the market from companies that include Magic Leap, Nreal and Vuzix. Last month, Qualcomm showed off its new XR2 chipset for a new group of glasses.

These new devices, called “XR” for “extended reality,” build upon virtual reality headsets and tech- nology that’s increasing in popularity. In fact, reviewers included the Oculus Quest in lists of devices of the year for 2019 (see below). Still, newer devices like Oculus Quest, a $400 standalone virtual reality headset, or the $3,500 Microsoft HoloLens, have yet to win over consumers.

AR and VR

Virtual reality means not seeing the real world and instead moving around in a totally virtualized one. Oculus Quest is one of many competitors at differing price points, but it’s a favorite because of its affordable price and because it’s totally standalone with no PC needed. Most of its competitors require a cord to an expensive PC, which limits their usefulness.

Augmented reality allows users to walk around the real world while seeing virtual items pop up. The best examples include Microsoft’s Holo- Lens or Magic Leap’s ML1 headset.

So, why haven’t sales taken off? Well, the devices are big and ugly. Most are expensive. None come with optics or monitors inside that are good enough for users to read text, and they aren’t comfortable enough or sharp enough to wear to watch a movie. By 2023, that will change due to a new wave of optics and capabilities, thanks to Qualcomm.

So, cautious investors should keep watch on this field, and aggressive investors may place some bets now. Really aggressive investors, like Tipatat Chennavasin, along with his partners at TheVRFund, or Josh Wolfe at LUX Capital, have been investing for years. They haven’t found a unicorn yet but were in Beat Games, which just sold to Facebook. Facebook has spent billions and is gearing up to spend even more over the next decade. Its lists of open positions were often hundreds of jobs long.

But don’t indulge in FOMO— the fear of missing out. This game has barely begun, and the unicorns probably haven’t been born. The big players—Facebook, Microsoft, Sony or Apple—are spending billions in R&D and might squash smaller companies. Facebook has already started Horizon, which it bills as a virtual reality world. Other players include Sansar, from the creators of Second Life, and AltSpace VR, which is owned by Microsoft.

New kinds of infrastructure companies have been launched. They will need a new kind of cloud computing, one that merges detailed maps, 3D systems from video game producers and data from new kinds of 3D sensors. These “AR Clouds” and companies like 6D.AI are offering new kinds of video games and providing details about the world, thanks to these new systems.

Spatial computing is already changing human interaction. Social gaming systems, like RecRoom from Seattle’s Against Gravity, make it possible for sports fans to play basketball over the internet against other people.

Practical applications

The workplace is changing, too. Thanks to virtual reality, the Magic Leap headset enables users to collaborate remotely with co-workers. They can manipulate 3D items on top of the real world while seeing colleagues just as they would if they were meeting in real life.

Working in 3D will also help employers and employees to visualize business data with help from Virtualitics.

BadVR enables workers and managers to walk around a virtualized factory floor in a Magic Leap headset and see how well everything is working in real time. The technology also helps to train workers how the plants operate. It can even redesign the floors to maximize the space and layout.

Health care will change profoundly as spatial computing proliferates. MediView, for instance, guides surgeons as they move cutting tools into cancer tumors, thanks to its system and a Microsoft HoloLens.

In the schools, MergeVR has sold millions of augmented reality cubes to teachers who use their product to augment lesson plans. In one example, a user aims a phone or tablet at a spinning cube that creates a virtual solar system on the device.

Retailers are using spatial computing, particularly for training. Walmart, for example, bought tens of thousands of VR headsets to perform training created by STRIVR. It credits that training with saving lives during a shooting in one of its stores, and with improving customer experience too.

Realtors are showing properties with the help of SpatialFirst, which enables potential buyers to take virtual walks around commercial real estate. Today it’s on mobile phones, and it will soon become available for other devices.

OCULUS QUEST

Developer: Oculus, acquired by Facebook in 2014 for $2 billion in cash and stock

Description: Oculus released Quest last spring as an all-in-one, no-stringsattached approach to VR gaming. That means gamers won’t need a highdollar PC rig to immerse themselves in a consumer-friendly VR experience. One downside to the freedom from wires, however, is a battery that leaves a lot to be desired, clocking in at about two hours of use with each charge.

Price: $399 for 64GB; $499 for 128GB

Unit Sales: 400,000—SuperData

HTC VIVE

Developers: HTC & Valve

Description: The Vive, co-developed by HTC and Valve, is powered by SteamVR. It provides easy access to more than 1,500 virtual reality games on the popular Steam interface that’s already familiar to PC gamers. The device is capable of turning nearly any 11’5” by 11’5” space into a fully immersive virtual world to explore.

Price: $499

Unit Sales: 1.3 Million—SuperData