7 minute read
Play Poker Like a Robot
from April 2023
Bet or check with a mix of good and bad hands to keep opponents guessing
By Jonathan Little
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Win at poker by learning to play more like a robot.
In other words, you can develop robust poker strategies by betting or checking on a mixture of strong hands and weak hands. That forces opponents to play a guessing game, and if you structure your ranges intelligently, you’ll be hard to beat.
It’s what the best AI programs and GTO (game theory optimal) solvers do, and it’s what the best poker players in the world try to replicate.
Suppose when playing 40 big blinds (bb) deep you raise to 2bbs first to act at a 6-handed table with the GTO range of 2-2+ (“2-2+” means a pair of twos, or any higher pair), A-2s+, A-9o+, K-5s+, K-10o+, Q-8s+, Q-10o+, J-8s+, J-10o, 10-7s+, 9-7s+, 8-6s+, 7-6s, 6-5s and 5-4s.
Only the big blind calls. The flop comes As-7h-6d and the big blind checks. This is a flop that heavily favors the initial raiser, allowing you to bet every time.
It may seem like that strategy would be easy to implement, but you have to figure out which size to use and when to use it.
The chart on this page shows how the GTO solver plays this situation: The hands in dark red bet the size of the pot, the hands in light red bet 25% of the pot and the hands in gray are not in the range because they folded preflop.
It’s difficult for humans to know to bet A-Ko and A-Jo using a pot-sized bet roughly 67% of the time, while A-Qo bets using a pot-sized bet most of the time. It’s also difficult to know how much more often to bet a hand like 3-3 using a large size compared to a similar hand like 5-5.
So, here are some broad rules to help determine which size to use when you’re in position and checked to on a flop that heavily favors your range:
Extremely strong hands that are unlikely to get outdrawn (A-A, 6-6, A-7) should usually use a small size.
Hands that are almost always best but are vulnerable to being outdrawn (A-Q, A-10) should usually use a large size.
Hands that could be good but could also be behind (A-2s, K-K, 8-7s) should usually use a small size.
Draws that will continue if raised (9-8s, 5-4s) should usually use a small size.
Draws that will fold if raised (Q-Js, J-10s) should usually use a large size.
After you use a specific bet size on the flop, all hands that are not bet using that size are no longer in your range. Suppose you bet 25% pot and the big blind calls. The turn is the (As-7h6d)-5c and the big blind checks.
This turn is bad for your range because the big blind will have improved to many two-pair and better hands. Also, the big blind would have folded their weak hands to your small flop bet, whereas you still have all the weak hands in your range because you bet with everything on the flop.
This forces you to check much of the time with your strong polarized betting range (best hands and draws) usually using a large size: You bet the turn and the big blind calls. The river is the (As-7h-6d-5c)-4s and the big blind checks. Even though all your 8s improved to a straight, many of your made hands on the turn have been substantially downgraded because it is easy for the big blind to have an 8 or two-pair. Your river strategy is to go all-in for a bit more than the size of the pot with your straights and some sets as well as some of your hands that cannot win at the showdown.
However, you cannot bluff with all your hands that lose at the showdown because you would be bluffing far too often.
To determine how often you can bluff on the river when your range is polarized (effective nuts or nothing), figure out the pot odds your opponent will be getting and then structure your range such that your opponent is indifferent to calling.
Your opponent has to call 27.4bbs to win a pot of 81.5bbs (the pot going to the river plus your bet and their call) meaning they need to have the best hand 33.6% of the time to call.
Structure your betting range so that it contains roughly 33.6% bluffs (assuming your value bets win every time when called, which may or may not be the case).
In this spot, your all-in range should be 12.8 combinations of straights, .9 combinations of sets and 6.6 combinations of bluffs.
Your all-in value range contains 13.7 combinations of hands and your bluffing range contains 6.6 combinations of hands. 6.6/(13.7 + 6.6) = 32.5%. That means when your opponent calls with their bluff catchers (almost all of their range), they will win 32.5% of the time, which is close to the pot odds they are being offered, making them indifferent.
When the GTO strategy takes a line where it bets the flop, turn and river, it pretty much always bluffs using a large size with a polarized range with the bluffs making up the percentage of your range that will make your opponent indifferent based on the pot odds.
Even though implementing GTO strategies is close-to-impossible for humans, live poker cash games and tournaments are still highly profitable in 2023.
The real money in poker is made when you get out of line in order to massively exploit the mistakes your opponents make.
If you know your opponent goes all-in in the above river situation with all their bluffs instead of only some of them, your adjustment is to call with all your bluff catchers. If they rarely or never bluff all-in, fold all your bluff catchers.
If you pay attention to the strategies each opponent uses that are far from the GTO strategy, you can make logical adjustments that will enable you to exploit them and win a ton of money.
GTO River Betting Strategy
straight 12.8 combos 62.4%
set 0.9 combos 4.6%
two pair 0 combos 0.0%
top pair 0 combos 0.1%
underpair 0 combos 0.0%
2nd pair 0 combos 0.1%
3rd pair 0 combos 0.0%
low pair 0 combos 0.1%
king high 1.8 combos 9.0%
nothing 4.8 combos 23.7%
Game theory optimal
(GTO) poker strategy is a style of play in which players seek complete balance to protect themselves from exploitation by their opponents. This strategy is the opposite of exploitative poker, which focuses on finding weaknesses in other players. While GTO poker has been proven successful in heads-up poker, it can also be applied to other poker games.
This style of play involves bluffing and value betting on every street of every hand with a balanced range.
Jonathan Little, a professional poker player and WPT Player of the Year, has amassed more than $7 million in live tournament winnings, written 14 best-selling books and teaches at PokerCoaching.com. @jonathanlittle
