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DAT 565 Wk 6 Discussion - Time Series Modeling Post a total of 3 substantive responses over 2 separate days for full participation. This includes your initial post and 2 replies to other students or your faculty member. Due Day 3 Time series are particularly useful to track variables such as revenues, costs, and profits over time. Time series models help evaluate performance and make predictions. Consider the following and respond in a minimum of 175 words:
Time series decomposition seeks to separate the time series (Y) into 4 components: trend (T), cycle (C), seasonal (S), and irregular (I). What is the difference between these components?
The model can be additive or multiplicative.When we do use an additive model? When do we use a multiplicative model?
The following list gives the gross federal debt(in millions of dollars) for the U.S. every 5 years from 1945 to 2000: Year
Gross Federal Debt ($millions)
1945
260,123
1950
256,853
1955
274,366
1960
290,525
1965
322,318
1970
380,921
1975
541,925
1980
909,050
1985
1,817,521
1990
3,206,564
1995
4,921,005
2000
5,686,338
Construct a scatter plot with this data. Do you observe a trend? If so, what type of trend do you observe?
Use Excel to fit a linear trend and an exponential trend to the data. Display the models and their respective r^2.
Interpret both models. Which model seems to be more appropriate? Why? Due Day 7 Reply to at least 2 of your classmates or your faculty member. Be constructive and professional.