FLAT HORSES TO FOLLOW (Three-Year-Old Edition) 2023

By Luke Quinn

ATWIXADAY (GB)

3yo b c Adaay x Atwix

Form: 880-

Trainer: Gary Moore

Owner: The Calculated Speculators

ATWIXADAY has been in the tracker since his debut in early October. Green throughout, raced in last, made eye-catching headway with minimal assistance from the jockey, only being beaten 6l in what a strong maiden for the course. The pace that day was slow, making it harder for the held-up horses to make inroads, making ATWIXADAY’s Finishing percentage of 101.77 (2.1% above race finishing speed) rather promising.

Two quick runs followed his rather promising debut, where he was unduly punished in each race. His current mark of 62 is solely down to his debut run, where you could argue he ran 58lb higher than that considering the ride he got. Could see him winning in low graded handicaps over 8-10f Looked at home on slightly softer ground, but I feel he could be more than capable on quicker ground. No world beater but definite room for optimism.

BANDERAS (IRE)

3yo c c Lope De Vega x Glamorous Approach

Form: 5-

Trainer: Michael Bell

Owner: Oti Racing, Ballylinch

Stud And Partner

Big strapping type, who outran his rather unfancied odds of 22/1 on sole start, only beaten 5L in what looks a very good maiden race. He massively caught the eye, coming from the back of the field travelling ominously well in the hands of Daniel Tudhope. He was hard on the bridle, when getting no run, tightened up badly on 3 occasions at a time where the race was just developing. Consequently, he lost his pitch and wasn’t knocked about by Tudhope, finishing a very good 5th. The 2nd that day has gone on to win his maiden, suggesting the form is solid enough to follow into the 2023 season.

Beautifully bred type being a Lope De Vega out of a listed winning mare. The dam only came into her own at 3yo onwards, along with his full brother who also progressed significantly last year from 2-3yo. They have taken their time with BANDERAS, suggesting connections feel he is a similar type to progress with age.

I could see him easily winning a maiden over 1m2f NTO on either AW or Turf, with the turf option being more appealing, as he will need to gain experience on the surface so he can tackle bigger targets later in the season. He was pulled out of a Newbury maiden last year due to the soft ground, so I would imagine they will keep him away from really testing ground. I could see him being targeted in top 3yo races over 1m4f+, maybe testing his credentials in a Derby trial after his maiden win. Really looking forward to seeing what this one can do. Top class potential.

BUCCABAY (IRE)

3yo b g Saxon Warrior x Fifth Commandment

Form: 81-

Trainer: Eve Johnson Houghton

Owner: The Buckingham Partnership

Promising type who broke his maiden at the second time of asking, taking out a competitive Ascot maiden under a very canny Charlie Bishop ride. He tanked through his maiden win like a really nice horse, quickening clear under hands and heals. Looking at his sectionals that day, he hit 37.25 Mph under hands and heals in his final 2 furlongs, what was significantly quicker than anything else in the race. The race time was also rather quick, only being 2.16s slow and 1.83 seconds quicker than the 2nd division of the race.

The owners of this one have opted to geld him over the winter, what did surprise me a little as I didn’t think he showed coltish tendency’s during his races but then again, I haven’t seen how he is at home or how he is in the prelims. This son of Saxon Warrior loves quick ground and should be seen at most of the summer festivals providing the ground is suitable. He will need to run again for a mark, and I feel he could be well handicapped off any mark below 90. Could see him being campaigned towards the Britannia Handicap at Ascot via The Silver Bowl at Haydock, two valuable handicaps what would be in this lad reach providing the ground is quick. Nice horse with untapped potential.

CARAGIO (IRE)

3yo B G Caravaggio x Freddie’s Girl

Form: 214-

Trainer: Roger Teal

Owner: Mrs Anne Cowley

Big strapping son of Caravaggio made a promising start to his racing career when narrowly missing out on a debut win mainly down to slight greenness when hanging left. Put that debut experience to devesting effect at Leicester NTO, where he ran out a ready winner in what is turning out to be a very hot novice. What impressed me is the turn of foot he possessed to quicken away from very useful individuals, settling the race at the furlong pole.

Ran well in the Group 3 Horris Hill next time out, where he travelled with his usual enthusiasm but just failed to quicken on what was softer ground than desired. His knee action suggest that he will appreciate the return better ground.

Mrs Anne Cowley knows the family inside out, being a homebred and closely related to her 2000G placed Tip To Win. I feel that he will be campaigned in group company on the hunt for some black type to bolster the page of an already vastly successful family

CARAGIO wouldn’t be eligible to attempt to better his half-brothers 2000G attempt, but that doesn’t rule him out of running in top class group races throughout the year. The popular Craven Stakes in April would be a suitable target to test his ability in Group company again, on what would be a good early opportunity to see how he’s progressed from 2yo-3yo. Promising type, who is worth following.

CLIMATE FRIENDLY (GB)

3yo ch f Frankel x Unex Mona Lisa

Form: 9-

Trainer: Roger Varian

Owner: The Gredley Family

One raced maiden filly, who didn’t put her best foot forward on racecourse debut, running green and not handling the dip at HQ. Looked in desperate need of racecourse experience and will have learnt bundles from the outing. Was well supported that day suggesting a lot more was expected from her, giving me room for optimism that she can show more as a 3yo. She is impeccably bred, being a half-sister to the G1 winner Pretty Pollyanna, leaving her with plenty of scope for improvement still.

She should have the ability to win a maiden FTO, and we might get a price due to her debut run. The Gredley’s have given similar types time to mature and strengthen when needed, yielding better long-term results whilst providing the infrastructure and longevity to a successful racing career. Further enhancing my thoughts, The Gredley Family have a much better record with 3yo horses than any other, operating at a 23% strike rate with all 3yo runners (9/39 Wins/Runs, +£36.21 to £1 lv stake), in contrast to a 12% strike rate with 2yo and older horses combined. Could see her making a return on a flat track such as Doncaster or Yarmouth, providing her with a nice fair track to strut her stuff on. Worth following as a 3yo.

CONCORDE (GB)

3yo ch g Sixties Icon x Silca Chiave

Form: 688-

Trainer: George Boughey

Owner: Mrs Susan Roy

CONCORDE looks a horse to keep on the right side of moving into the 3yo turf season, after being gifted an opening mark of 57 after 3 quick runs in novice events. Showed enough ability on debut and 2nd run to suggest he could be a likely improver with time and experience. I liked the rides he got in all his races to date, nice and educational giving CONCORDE the best chance of maintaining a good aptitude to racing moving into his 3yo career. Looked like a lovely mover and travelled with enough zest (mainly on debut) to suggest he has a decent level of ability.

Plenty of stamina being out of Sixties Icon, giving CONCORDE plenty of options regarding trip. Gelded shortly after his 3rd run, indicating that was the plan at the outset. Trainer George Boughey has shown incredible talent on placing his unexposed horses to run up sequences, and this could be another one to add to his tremendous record in handicaps.

Owner Mrs Susan Roy teamed up with George Boughey last year with Simply Sondheim, who rattled off 6 consecutive handicap wins once being gelded, could this be another similar type? Mrs Roy doesn’t tend to suffer “Poor” horses, so this is testament to CONCORDE that she is willing to persevere into handicap company. Unraced on turf, could easily bring out improvement. I’d be very disappointed if this one isn’t significantly well handicapped.

DRAGON ICON (IRE)

3yo b c Lope De Vega x Matauri Pearl

Form: 1-

Trainer: Roger Varian

Owner: Yoshiro Kubota

Promising type, who made a striking Kempton debut, travelling very well then showing a lovely turn of foot to quicken past useful rivals, putting the race to bed very easily. Only received 2 taps from the whip that day, arguably suggesting he has more untapped ability to discover once given a more vigorous ride. His back-end sectionals that day were very good, particularly the 6f where he ran an 11.38, a 2f-1f time what was only bettered by the 1m listed race on the same card that night.

Hes out of a highly successful dam, whose most notable progeny was breeders cup fillies juvenile winner Aunt Pearl. Sired by the vastly successful Lope De Vega, I think he will be at home on quick ground once tackling the turf. On breeding he could get 1m2f in time, but he looked fast enough to apply his trade at 1m as an early season 3yo. Can imagine he will go straight into pattern company on his next run, where we will really be able to gage how good he is. Group winner in the making?

FLORIDA (IRE)

3yo b c No Nay Never x Balankiya

Form: 951

Trainer: William Haggas

Owner: Michael Buckley

Raw colt who broke his maiden at the 3rd time of asking, when showing a nice turn of foot to quicken clear under hand and heal riding. Took some time to really come to his own, showing some babyish tendencies in his first 2 races. Looked in desperate need of experience when tackling the Rowley Mile on debut, where he wasn’t unduly punished once the race was lost. Has been progressing with each run, looking more straight forward by the race. His opening mark of 85 could be on the harsh side based on the ability he shown, but I feel there is more progression to come once he has physically matured.

With him being out of No Nay Never, he should benefit from a sounder surface than what he faced on turf debut, leaving room for optimism that he could progress on his switch back to quicker turf. My interest in this one would be peaked if he was gelded in the near future, as I feel this would progress the horse mentally, providing him with the best chance on reaching his full potential. Out of a lovely Aga Khan mare, who has provided plenty of useful types in the past, this will be another one. Promising type.

IBRAHIMOVIC (IRE)

3yo gr c La Havre x Isanous

Form: 5-

Trainer: Michael Bell

Owner: Peter Trainor

Nice moving grey, who showed more than enough to work with on his Chelmsford debut. He travelled enthusiastically upsides good horses, having to be restrained for most of the race. I feel he will come on massively for this run, as he will learn to settle better allowing a much more potent finishing effort. Looked a big raw horse who will only come to himself with more racing under his belt.

I could see him stepping back down in trip to 1m, a distance where he could use his high cruising speed much more efficiently. Furthermore, I feel that he would appreciate a switch to the turf with his Sire La Havre having a significantly higher winners to runner’s ratio on turf than the AW. Has the ability to win a maiden first time up, it just depends on if they are prepping him with handicaps in mind. Keep onside.

INTERGALACTICAT (GB)

3yo Bay Colt Bobby’s Kitten x Interstella

Form: 0-86

Trainer: James Fanshaw

Owner: Fred Archer Racing - Thunder

I wasn’t the only one whose eye was drawn to INTERGALACTICAT, as he attracted the unwanted attention of the stewards in his most recent run after staying on very well under tentative riding from Darragh Keenan. He was only beaten just over 5L by the winner that day, what was a hell of a performance considering how he was ridden. Turns out he was slightly lame on his left-fore, providing the jockey with a valid excuse on why he was ridden that way, questionable ride what he got away with. The BHA have stepped in recently on certain horses who obviously didn’t achieve the best possible finishing position, and this is the case with INTERGALACTICAT who will have to run again to achieve a handicap mark. Finishing sectionals back up the promise shown with the Colt finishing 2.95% over race finish, what is very impressive considering he wasn’t knocked about.

Due to the keen eyes on this one from the BHA, connections may want to be careful with what they do on the next run. Was he to run bad next time, he may be under more scrutiny from the BHA what could stop him from getting a mark. On the other hand, he could be ridden more vigorously, with intent on winning his next race blowing his mark in the process. I’ll be on market watch for is next run and shall play accordingly. Would love to see him get a mark in the 60s.

KING KRAKEN (GB)

3yo b g Washington DC x Minty Fox

Form: 868-

Trainer: George Scott

Owner: Blue Starr Racing

KING KRAKEN will kick off the horse to Follow, after running with credit in his 3 qualifying runs over inadequate trips. Looked in desperate need of experience on debut, but ran with bundles of promise against race fit, early season 2yo’s. His 2 other runs were purely used to educate him with handicaps in mind, after looking like a big baby of a horse, who will only improve with racing. He looks to have plenty of size and scope to progress into a promising 3yo middle distance handicapper.

Even though His dam and her only other progeny showed limited ability, they both improved for age, excelling over 1m 4f. based on this, KING KRAKEN could have any amount of improvement when significantly stepping up in trip

George Scott and Blue Starr Racing team up again, with hopes on emulating stable flag bearers Captain Kane and Prydwen who collectively won 10 from 21 races in 2022. Interestingly, George Scott possessed a 27% (+£12.35 to £1 lv stake) strike rate in 3yo handicaps in 2022, suggesting he trains his horses to progress with age and experience once they are mature enough mentally and physically. I’d be shocked if this one isn’t better than his opening mark of 61. Happy to back in handicaps 1m 2f or further.

KING OF STEEL (USA)

3yo g c Wootton Bassett x Eldacar

Form: 17-

Trainer: David Loughnane

Owner: Amo Racing Limited

One of the only two in the list who have ran in group company, King of Steel caught the eye on and off the track, possessing a huge frame with plenty of size and scope, matched by Group class ability. He ran out a convincing winner of his maiden, impressing his trainer as he felt he wouldn’t be coming into his own until he was 3yo. He then took up his entry in the Vertem Futurity Trophy Group 1, where he was only beaten 9l. That race likely came too soon for him with it only being 10 days after his debut, and in terms of his growth as he was still immature and just a frame of a horse.

I could see him doing better once stepping up to 10f, and once he has had more time to progress physically. Could see his sights been lowered into lesser Group company, allowing him to properly test his ability as a 3yo. Quicker ground is an unknown, but he’s out of a sire who excelled on faster surfaces. Can see him being no less than a group horse, who will be worth following.

LORD BERTIE (FR)

3yo b g Wootton Bassett x Bhageerathi

Form: 31-

Trainer: William Haggas

Owner: Ms Fiona Carmichael

Tricky type, who made a very good start to his racing career, showing greenness and coltish tendency’s when finishing 3rd in what has worked out to be arguably the best 2yo Maiden ran in 2022 (1st Chaldean G1 winner RPR 118, 2nd Seeking Gold RPR 92 , 4th Silver Knott G3 winner & G1 placed RPR 115). Didn’t have to improve to take a Ffos Las Maiden, but the way he travelled through the race caught my eye, doing everything very easily. Race time was very decent providing conditions (2.48 seconds quicker than 2nd div).

Showed bundles of ability on both his races, but also had little quirks and tendency’s what have led to the gelding of this Derby entrant. He had a very awkward head carriage and didn’t really know how to respond when being asked for maximal effort. I was excited to see that connections had bit the bullet and gelded him, as I believe this could be the making of him. The gelding operation will hopefully eradicate these juvenile habits, allowing him to scale the hights he’s potentially capable of. Only needs 1 more run for a handicap mark, will be interesting to see what they do with him. A potential return to Newbury for the valuable London Gold Cup Handicap could be an early season target, mark dependant. Hopefully all quirks have been ironed out. Talented.

MAJESTIC WARRIOR (IRE)

3yo ch c Churchill x Zam Zoom

Form: 1

Trainer: James Tate

Owner: Saeed Manana

Made a taking debut at Wolverhampton over an extended 9f, running green but responding very well to jockey’s urgings to power clear from decent mid 70s horses. Was very strong in the market that day having an industry SP of Evens, suggesting he is very well thought of by connections.

I can see this big powerhouse only going one way once he has more experience, eliminating any greenness in the process. Being closely related to Ebor Winner Fujaira Prince and the late Nichols Canyon, he will excel once stepping up in trip to 1m4f+. Regarding targets, it would be completely down to how he gets on is next 2 runs. I could see him winning another novice (AW or turf) before stepping into Group company in maybe one of The Derby Trials. Ultimately, if disappointing in Group Company, the Melrose Handicap at the York Ebor Festival would be another potential target what I think could suit well, providing he’s not blown his mark. A nice flat galloping track will suit this lad, leaving options wide open. Any amount of potential.

MASCAPONE (GB)

3yo b c Massaat x Capelita

Form: 4134-

Trainer: David Simcock

Owner: Australian Bloodstock Stable

Lovely big horse, who made a very promising start to his racing career with a running on 4th in the Brocklesby at Doncaster. Subsequently purchased by large owners Australian Bloodstock, who obviously liked what they saw on debut. Broke his maiden in a race he was expected to win, then wasn’t disgraced in listed company behind 110 rated Naval Power. His last run is where he showed the most for me, where he was a fast-finishing 4th of a mark of 89. 2-1f out he was travelling very nicely behind horses, but he had nowhere to go. When the gap opened, he took a while to quicken, not handling the dip looking unbalanced but running on strongly. He only had 1 tap of the whip that day and I feel if he had been granted a clearer run, he would have been able to win the race quite comfortably. The handicapper didn’t miss this putting him up 2lb, but I still feel he is well enough handicapped to compete in strong 3yo handicaps over 1m-1m2f next season.

He is a big horse who will benefit from a winter of growth to fill his big frame, what is also testament to his raw ability as horses his size shouldn’t really come into their own till 3yo+. I would like to see him on a flat galloping track, what I think would play to his strengths. Trainer does well with these types, keep onside.

MUY MUY GUAPO (GB)

3yo b c Ardad x Belvoir Diva

Form: 035-6

Trainer: Simon Dow

Owner: Robert Moss

Speedy son of Ardad, who first caught sprung to my attention when he made an eye-catching debut in a solid Newbury maiden, where he travelled nicely but had no room to make his challenge. Failed to win a maiden in his next two runs but I can put a line through that as I feel he will have needed the experience in order to settle better in his races.

He made his first 3yo appearance in early February, where he was awfully weak in the market, but shaped with great promise again. He settled much better when he was held up in rear, didn’t get much luck in running and was on the bridle when most of his race rivals were hard at work. The jockey that day quickly took his medicine and allowed him to come home under tentative riding.

This 115k purchase shows fantastic pace and a very high cruising speed, perfect credentials to develop into solid turf handicapper over 6f. A current mark of 72 looks more than workable, for a trainer what has done well with similar types before. Has the speed for 5f also, keeping options open regarding trip. Could see him going well at tracks such as Goodwood, Epsom and Lingfield. Nice handicapper.

REMARQUEE (GB)

3yo b f Kingman x Regardez

Form: 1

Trainer: Ralph Beckett

Owner: J H Richmond-Watson

Made a taking winning debut amidst greenness, carried head awkwardly when asked to lengthen but did eventually respond well enough to quicken past a useful race fit adversary. The penny was only just beginning to drop later in the 7f trip, indicating she would benefit from middle distances once growing into her frame.

Nicely bred from a family both owner and trainer know very well, so it would be very unusual for them not to get the best out of this lovely type. I feel her best trip in time would be 10f, giving the Beckett yard varying options on targets. The Fillies Trial Stakes ran at Newbury in May would be the standout early season target as well as the Musiodora Stakes at York, as this would allow them to test the waters against greater opposition at what I feel would be her optimum trip. All being well, I feel this could be a steppingstone to the Group 1 Prix Du Diane in June, where I believe she could be competitive providing she has a smooth preparation. Group 1 potential.

SOPHIA’S STARLIGHT (FR)

3yo b f Hunter’s Light x Endeavor

Form: 368-

Trainer: Grant Tuer

Owner: Nick Bradley Racing 11

Keeping on with the unexposed 3yo theme, SOPHIA’S STARLIGHT caught the eye on her debut run at Newcastle. She was travelling with purpose on the stand side rail, when denied a clear run, halting her progress into the race. Once the gaps appeared, she quickened very nicely under tender handling finishing a running on 3rd. That run alone was enough for trainer Grant Tuer to speculatively place her into a listed race at Doncaster, where inevitably she was green and outclassed by more battle-hardened types. Her third run was back in calmer waters at Chelmsford, but a significant market drift had alarm bells ringing before the off. As the layers conveniently knew beforehand, she was slowly away and held up amid modest horses who were probably in need of the experience, putting her at a huge disadvantage at a pace favouring track. In the end, she wasn’t knocked about finishing a never nearer 8th beaten 10l. subsequently she has been given an opening mark of 69 what could be more than exploitable in handicaps over 7f-8f.

The form of her debut run is working out very well with the 1st, 2nd , 4th, and 7th going onto win. I’d say she ran to a mark of 75 that day, under hands and heels, creating enough room to exploit her opening mark of 69. Id honestly be disappointed if she didn’t become at least an 85+ handicapper, for a trainer who does very well with these types. Unexposed on the turf, where I feel she would be suited by quicker ground than she encountered at Doncaster. Worth following.