The Implications of a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

I get brutally awakened by my mom banging on my bedroom door. The sound of muffled bombing resonates through the city of Taipei. The time had come, the time we all dreaded.I hoped I would wake up soon. Sadly, there was no time to waste, as our darkest nightmare had just become reality. I thought to myself: “Have we been too naïve believing this day would never come? Is this really happening? Have they really crossed the line?” Navigating the Indo-Pacific under the NATO mandate The rise of the Chinese threat, and recent military and economic assertiveness towards Taiwan has not gone unnoticed. The intensification of tensions between both entities has heightened concern about the possibility of a military conflict. The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has formally voiced its concern towards China as a strategic antagonist, claiming that Beijing challenges the alliance’s interest, security, and values. A war of this nature may significantly affect both the regional and global security. NATO‘s mandate is centred on the idea that collective defence for its members must be safe- guarded at all times. The military partnership between North American and European states is translated by NATO’s Article 5: „an armed assault on one or more of them […] shall be regarded as an attack against them all.” Although Taiwan is not a member of NATO, it seems that the organisation is not bound to, nor should, actively engage in the conflict. NATO has led foreign operations in the past, and its legitimacy stems from the formal diplomatic ties NATO member states have established with Taiwan, voicing support for its democratic system and territorial integrity. Yet, the peaceful settlement of disputes through dialogue and diplomacy prevails, as upholding a stable and secure Asia-Pacific region remains prioritised. Although China has not openly challenged any NATO member state, the intensification of tensions raises the question of whether NATO should be better equipped to counteract China as a competitor. The United States (U.S.), being a member of NATO, fears China will invade Taiwan, thereby losing its economic perks, and advanced technologies. Economic globalisation is scaling up the extent to which the losses of a Chinese invasion will be endured, beyond regional interactions. The lack of interest from European NATO members frustrated the U.S., who tried to emphasise the threat China constitutes to Taiwan and the rest of the world at large. The U.S. was devoted to scaling this issue to the top of NATO’s agenda.

A narrative change can be traced back to the release of the NATO 2030 Report, which expressed NATO’s commitment to improving effort, political resources, and activity towards Chinese security issues. Recent events have lent credibility to the report’s claim that the post-Cold War peace system in the North-Atlantic region is in jeopardy. The Taiwan Strait is becoming more worrisome to the international arena, and concerns about China’s assertive behaviour and coercive policies have been haunting NATO since the Madrid Summit in July 2022.

The Biden administration pledged to preserve Taiwan’s sovereignty in case of a Chinese invasion, which increases the stakes for all the Allies, as conflict between the U.S. and China would grow in probability.

To make matters worse, concerns have amplified ever since China’s cooperative efforts with Russia have persisted post-invasion of Ukraine. Ever since the Russian invasion, many observers have compared the war to a possible Taiwan Strait emergency. While there are numerous differences between the two situations, there are indisputable similarities as well. Eyebrows have raised within NATO as a military confrontation becomes more likely. Consensus has not yet been established among NATO members regarding the Chinese threat to Taiwan, as countries such as the U.S. and Canada have adopted a more combative stance while those in Europe have attempted to compromise their economic connections with China and their security concerns. A few distinct factors have heightened the suspicion that China is organising a supposedly “peaceful” reunification with self-governing Taiwan. Albeit there is no confirmation of these rumours, U.S. military commanders have claimed that the Chinese President ordered the People‘s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to attack the island by 2027.

Sooner rather than later Increased military activity, armoured vehicles patrolling roadways, preparation of military personnel, aggressive rhetoric: war drums are being played. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last August left a sour taste in Xi Jinping’s mouth, and provoked vehement condemnation from Beijing. This at-first-glance act of kindness was met with a great military upheaval. Following perceived American provoca- tions and violations of Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity, Beijing launched largescale military exercises around the island. The U.S. believes this response was disproportionate and claimed that Pelosi’s visit did not influence their policy towards Taiwan. The recent drills performed by the PLA have furthered a vigilant global posture towards China and its supposedly peaceful intentions. One may also wonder how exactly Xi Jinping is organising a non-violent reunification with Taiwan whilst their military budget has increased by roughly 7.2% this year. China’s leader spoke at the Communist Party Congress, echoing Beijing’s pledge towards reunification, and opposing the independence of the island. Above all, he proclaimed that the use of force will be considered if it may induce the intended outcome of consolidation, a statement that was greeted with loud acclamation. Xi Jinping’s exact war strategy remains a mystery, as the use of military force may be blatantly detrimental to China’s global and regional position. Henceforth, NATO members must comprehend that there are vast disparities between Western attitudes towards the conflict, and Taiwan’s threat perception. China’s recurrent military threat has led Taiwan to cultivate a sense of normalcy in response, rather than fear. Depending on how the conflict unfolds, it could have varying effects on both the Asia-Pacific region and the global economy. There are three possible scenarios for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan: a blockade strategy involving economic coercion, an island occupation strategy focused on symbolic victory, and an air and sea incursion strategy aimed at disabling critical national infrastructure. Of these, the military incursion scenario is of greatest concern to NATO due to its potential to draw in the United States and thereby implicate the alliance. Careful consideration of each scenario and its impact on the Asia-Pacific region and global security is warranted. We all have a stake in this conflict, not just Taiwan and the U.S. While many believe that the chances of an immediate Chinese attack are low, it cannot be ruled out. Increasingly, other countries and international organisations are recognising the treacherous situation that Taiwan finds itself in. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan could give rise to a wave of panic, affecting countries all around the globe. The ultimate outcome is uncertain, and it remains to be seen whether Taiwan, perhaps along with its diplomatic partners, will be able to avoid its worst nightmare becoming reality.

My mother’s hand gently strokes my back as I perspire under my bed sheets. As I jolt awake from a vivid nightmare, it takes me a moment to realise that it wasn‘t real. My mother‘s comforting touch brings me back to the present, where I am once again confronted by the uncertain future of China-Taiwan relations. Whether China will actually risk invading Taiwan remains a mystery, but what I do know is that as long as diplomatic efforts remain ineffective, the constant threat of military confrontation will persist, casting a shadow over our daily life. 

Based on the current reports, the government is currently