QMR-Newsletter by Maggie Bieger

REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT 4TH QUARTER 2019 | LOWER HUDSON VALLEY (NY) The housing market in Westchester and the Hudson Valley closed the year with a flourish, with regional sales and prices up modestly but meaningfully. The market overall continued to show signs of recovery from the suppressive effects of the 2018 Tax Reform’s Cap on State and Local Taxes (i.e., the “SALT Cap”). Although we are still seeing more demand in the lower-priced than upper-priced markets, the overall trend suggests continued growth in 2020. Single-family sales were up regionally and in most of the individual counties. Regional sales rose 2.8%, only the second quarterly increase since the end of 2017 and the inception of the SALT Cap. For the 2019 calendar year, sales were down just a tick, but they picked up steam in the third and fourth quarter, after a weak start to the year. Within the individual counties, quarterly sales were mixed, tending to rise more in the higher-priced counties. Why? Because they were the hardest hit in 2018 by the inception of the SALT Cap, so their 2018 baseline numbers were suppressed more than in the lower-priced counties. As the SALT Cap continues to get priced into the market, we expect that sales will rise throughout the region in the spring. Similarly, single-family prices were generally up across the region, reflecting some rising strength in the high-end. Regionally, the average price rose 2.8% from last year’s fourth quarter, following a similar increase in the

MARKET OVERVIEW

ROLLING YEAR TRANSACTIONS AND AVERAGE SALES PRICES 2002– PRESENT

Westchester, Putnam, Dutchess, Rockland, and Orange Counties

third quarter. Most importantly, Westchester seemed to be recovering from the impact of the SALT Cap, with average prices up almost 3% for the quarter. Indeed, we might be seeing a long-awaited recovery in the high-end Westchester market: sales of super-luxury $3M+ homes rose 37% from last year’s fourth quarter. Westchester pricing tends to drive the rest of the market, so this was a welcome increase for all regional homeowners and sellers. Inventory was still low, but rising. The lack of inventory throughout the region has held back sales growth, with most counties and property types well below the six-months of inventory level that signifies a balanced market. Inventory was still relatively low as the year ended but was trending up in just about every county market and property type. It might be that sellers are seeing prices go up, and are getting tempted into the market. Going forward, we believe that the market is poised for a relatively robust 2020. Housing fundamentals are all positive: prices are still at attractive levels compared to the last seller’s market, interest rates are back down to historic lows, the economy is solid, and inventory might be loosening up. Accordingly, we believe that demand will continue to grow and that as the lingering effects of the SALT Cap dissipate, we will see more widespread price appreciation going into the spring market.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

$548,535 ▲ 0.5%

CLOSED UNITS

14,810 ▼ -0.3%

ROLLING‑YEAR SINGLE‑FAMILY SALES THROUGH Q4‑2019 $700,000

18,000

$650,000 16,000 $600,000 $550,000

14,000

$500,000 12,000 $450,000 $400,000

10,000

$350,000 8,000

$250,000

Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 Q2 Q3 Q4 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 Q2 Q3 Q4

$300,000

Transactions

6,000

Average Sales Price

Graph courtesy of Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty data courtesy local MLS systems

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty | randrealty.com

4TH QUARTER 2019 | NY REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT

WESTCHESTER

SINGLE‑FAMILY HOMES | CALENDAR YEAR COMPARISONS CLOSED UNITS

5,816

▼ -0.5%

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

$851,625 ▼ -0.2%

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

$654,500 ▲ 0.7%

$323

$1,000,000

7,000

$950,000

6,500

$900,000

6,000

$850,000

5,500

$800,000

5,000

$750,000

4,500

$700,000

4,000

$650,000

3,500

$600,000

3,000

$550,000

2,500

$500,000

2,000

▼ -0.9% LISTING RETENTION

97.4% ▼ -0.4%

DAYS ON MARKET

148

▲ 0.7% MONTHS OF INVENTORY

5.6

▲ 3.7% In the fourth quarter of 2019, the Westchester housing market continued to recover from the impact of the 2018 Tax Reform cap on state and local taxes (i.e., the "SALT Cap"). Single-family home sales were up almost 4%, the second quarterly increase in a row following seven straight declines after the SALT Cap went into effect. And prices were up as well, rising almost 3% on average and over 2% at the median. For the calendar year, Westchester's single-family home sales and prices were mostly flat, due to the weak first half to the year. But the trend does seem to show that Westchester buyers are pricing in the SALT Cap after 18 months of doldrums – indeed, the high-end is well into recovery, with sales of $3M-plus homes rising 37% from last year’s fourth quarter. Going forward, we believe that Westchester will experience a robust spring market, responding to strong housing fundamentals like low-interest rates, a growing economy, and pricing still below the heights of the last seller's market.

Q4 Q3 Q2 2019-Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 2018 Q4 Q3 Q2 2017 Q4 Q3 Q2 2016 Q4 Q3 Q2 2015 Q4 Q3 Q2 2014 Q4 Q3 Q2 2013 Q4 Q3 Q2 2012 Q4 Q3 Q2 2011 Q4 Q3 Q2 2010 Q4 Q3 Q2 2009 Q4 Q3 Q2 2008 Q4 Q3 Q2 2007 Q4 Q3 Q2 2006 Q4 Q3 Q2 2005 Q4 Q3 Q2 2004 Q4 Q3 Q2 2003 Q4 Q3 Q2 2002

PRICE PER SQ. FT

WESTCHESTER SINGLE‑FAMILY ROLLING‑YEAR SALES THROUGH Q4‑2019

Transactions

Average Sales Price

Graph courtesy of Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty data courtesy local MLS systems

WESTCHESTER MARKET MATRIX MARKET

Q4‑2019

SINGLE‑FAMILY HOMES

TOTAL CLOSED SALES

Q4‑2018

% CHANGE (QUARTER)

2019 CALENDAR YEAR

2018 % CHANGE CALENDAR (YEAR) YEAR

1,405

1,356

3.6%

5,816

5,847

-0.5%

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE

$800,539

$779,833

2.7%

$851,625

$853,477

-0.2%

MEDIAN SELLING PRICE

$619,000

$605,000

2.3%

$654,500

$650,000

0.7%

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

$314

$310

1.1%

$323

$326

-0.9%

LISTING RETENTION

96.9%

97.2%

-0.4%

97.4%

97.9%

-0.4%

AVERAGE DOM

151

147

2.6%

148

147

0.7%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

3.6

4.1

-12.2%

5.6

5.4

3.7%

CONDOMINIUMS

TOTAL CLOSED SALES

316

313

1.0%

1,334

1,300

2.6%

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE

$452,113

$462,027

-2.1%

$459,358

$443,468

3.6%

MEDIAN SELLING PRICE

$379,000

$385,000

-1.6%

$385,000

$375,000

2.7%

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

$327

$329

-0.6%

$333

$325

2.6%

LISTING RETENTION

-0.4%

97.5%

97.6%

-0.1%

97.5%

97.8%

AVERAGE DOM

130

-0.1%

128

127

0.8%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

3.0

2.8

7.1%

3.8

3.4

10.9%

469

522

-10.2%

1,860

1,974

-5.8% 3.0%

COOP PROPERTIES

TOTAL CLOSED SALES

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE

$194,413

$195,177

-0.4%

$204,736

$198,759

MEDIAN SELLING PRICE

$169,000

$166,000

1.8%

$175,000

$165,000

6.1%

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

$219

$215

2.3%

$223

$215

4.0%

LISTING RETENTION

98.2%

97.9%

0.4%

97.8%

97.4%

0.4%

AVERAGE DOM

161

162

-0.8%

163

169

-3.3%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

2.9

2.5

16.0%

3.0

3.3

-8.3%

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty | randrealty.com

4TH QUARTER 2019 | NY REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT

ROCKL AND

SINGLE‑FAMILY HOMES | CALENDAR YEAR COMPARISONS CLOSED UNITS

2,020 ▲ 5.5%

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

$491,970 ▼ -1.0%

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

$455,000 ▼ -1.1%

$222

▼ -0.6% LISTING RETENTION

97.1%

▼ -0.3% DAYS ON MARKET

150

▲ 0.4% MONTHS OF INVENTORY

5.9

▲ 9.9% Activity in the Rockland housing market surged in the fourth quarter of 2019, even while the 2018 Tax Reform cap on state and local taxes (i.e., the "SALT Cap") continued to suppress pricing growth. Singlefamily transactions rose over 7% for the quarter, and almost 6% for the full calendar year, reflecting high levels of demand spurred by strong economic fundamentals. But the SALT Cap has suppressed demand in the higher-ends of the market, which has held back pricing for single-family homes overall. In contrast, 2019 full-year prices in the lower-priced condo market were up over 8% on average and 10% at the median, because buyers at those price points generally don’t itemize their taxes and are mostly unaffected by the SALT Cap. Going forward, we do believe that the SALT Cap will ultimately get priced into the market and that the strong housing fundamentals will drive a relatively robust spring market.

$600,000

2,400 2,200

$550,000

2,000 $500,000 1,800 $450,000

1,600

$400,000

1,400 1,200

$350,000

1,000 $300,000 800 $250,000

$200,000

600

PRICE PER SQ. FT

ROCKLAND SINGLE‑FAMILY ROLLING‑YEAR SALES THROUGH Q4‑2019

Transactions

400

Average Sales Price

Graph courtesy of Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty data courtesy local MLS systems

ROCKLAND MARKET MATRIX Q4‑2018

% CHANGE (QUARTER)

2019 CALENDAR YEAR

528

492

7.3%

2,020

1,915

5.5%

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE

$482,360

$482,391

0.0%

$491,970

$496,908

-1.0%

MEDIAN SELLING PRICE

$450,000 $453,393

-0.7%

$455,000

$460,000

-1.1%

MARKET

Q4‑2019

2018 CHANGE CALENDAR % (YEAR) YEAR

SINGLE‑FAMILY HOMES TOTAL CLOSED SALES

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

$221

$222

-0.4%

$222

$223

-0.6%

LISTING RETENTION

96.7%

97.2%

-0.5%

97.1%

97.3%

-0.3%

AVERAGE DOM

150

142

5.7%

150

149

0.4%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

4.9

4.8

2.1%

5.9

5.3

9.9%

147

141

4.3%

532

565

-5.8%

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE

$259,016

$274,531

-5.7%

$280,374

$259,107

8.2%

MEDIAN SELLING PRICE

$250,000 $230,000

8.7%

$248,500

$225,000

10.4%

CONDOMINIUMS TOTAL CLOSED SALES

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

$210

$213

-1.1%

$212

$203

4.4%

LISTING RETENTION

96.5%

96.1%

0.4%

96.7%

96.8%

0.0%

AVERAGE DOM

146

138

6.0%

138

140

-1.0%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

3.7

3.0

23.3%

4.2

3.7

15.1%

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty | randrealty.com

4TH QUARTER 2019 | NY REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT

ORANGE

SINGLE‑FAMILY HOMES | CALENDAR YEAR COMPARISONS CLOSED UNITS

3,693 ▼ -3.8%

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

$288,077 ▲ 3.0%

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

$270,000 ▲ 4.9%

$145

▲ 4.7% LISTING RETENTION

97.3% ▲ 0.3%

DAYS ON MARKET

161

▼ -3.7% MONTHS OF INVENTORY

5.4

▲ 1.9% Pricing in the Orange County housing market surged in the fourth quarter of 2019, even while low levels of inventory continued to stifle sales growth. Pricing was up across the board, with single-family home prices rising over 8% on average and almost 9% at the median compared to last year's fourth quarter. And for the full 2019 year, single-family prices were up 3% on average and almost 5% in the median. Condo prices were also generally up, rising 5% on average and over 6% at the median for the year, even while the quarterly numbers were mixed. We note that sales activity for both singlefamily and condo homes was down for the quarter, but that was largely based on a lack of inventory rather than a slackening of demand. Orange inventory is way down, finishing the year with under five months of inventory for single-family homes and an unprecedented two months for condos. Going forward, we think that rising prices will tempt more sellers into the spring market, and that buyer demand will stay strong with rates low and the economy growing.

$400,000

4,000

$350,000

3,500

$300,000

3,000

$250,000

2,500

$200,000

2,000

$150,000

1,500

$100,000

1,000

PRICE PER SQ. FT

ORANGE SINGLE‑FAMILY ROLLING‑YEAR SALES THROUGH Q4‑2019

Transactions

Average Sales Price

Graph courtesy of Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty data courtesy local MLS systems

ORANGE MARKET MATRIX Q4‑2018

% CHANGE (QUARTER)

2019 CALENDAR YEAR

956

1,036

-7.7%

3,693

3,838

-3.8%

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE

$298,308

$275,408

8.3%

$288,077

$279,707

3.0%

MEDIAN SELLING PRICE

$277,000

$255,000

8.6%

$270,000

$257,500

4.9%

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

$147

$142

3.5%

$145

$138

4.7%

LISTING RETENTION

97.0%

96.7%

0.3%

97.3%

97.0%

0.3%

AVERAGE DOM

166

154

7.8%

161

167

-3.7%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

4.8

4.7

2.1%

5.4

5.3

1.9%

135

137

-1.5%

515

485

6.2%

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE

$200,206

$209,187

-4.3%

$198,057

$188,547

5.0%

MEDIAN SELLING PRICE

$187,000

$184,900

1.1%

$186,000

$175,000

6.3%

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

$148

-0.3%

$146

$139

5.1%

LISTING RETENTION

96.9%

97.1%

-0.1%

97.5%

96.8%

0.6%

AVERAGE DOM

115

128

-10.5%

121

127

-4.5%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

2.1

2.7

-22.2%

2.7

3.3

-18.2%

MARKET

Q4‑2019

2018 CHANGE CALENDAR % (YEAR) YEAR

SINGLE‑FAMILY HOMES TOTAL CLOSED SALES

CONDOMINIUMS TOTAL CLOSED SALES

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty | randrealty.com

4TH QUARTER 2019 | NY REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT

PUTNAM

SINGLE‑FAMILY HOMES | CALENDAR YEAR COMPARISONS CLOSED UNITS

1,074 ▲ 2.2%

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

$384,233 ▼ -1.6%

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

$360,000

$550,000

800 $400,000 600 $350,000

PRICE PER SQ. FT

$250,000

LISTING RETENTION

97.3% ▼ -0.3%

DAYS ON MARKET

143

▼ -7.2% MONTHS OF INVENTORY

6.0

▲ 8.1% The Putnam housing market corrected a bit in a slow fourth quarter, after surges through much of the year. Single-family home sales were down about 3% for the quarter, with prices falling over 4% on average and almost 7% at the median. For the 2019 calendar year, though, Putnam's market generally grew, with sales up over 2% from 2018. Full-year prices were more mixed, with the average falling almost 2% and the median rising almost 3%. We believe that this pricing divergence is mostly due to the effects of the 2018 Tax Reform cap on state and local taxes (i.e., the "SALT Cap"), which has had more of an impact on the average price by suppressing some high-end activity. Going forward, we expect a relatively robust spring market, with prices still below their sellermarket highs, interest rates near historic lows, and a growing economy.

1,000

$450,000

$300,000

▼ -1.6%

1,200

$500,000

▲ 2.9%

$189

1,400

$600,000

$200,000

400

200

PUTNAM SINGLE‑FAMILY ROLLING‑YEAR SALES THROUGH Q4‑2019

Transactions

Average Sales Price

Graph courtesy of Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty data courtesy local MLS systems

PUTNAM MARKET MATRIX Q4‑2018

% CHANGE (QUARTER)

2019 CALENDAR YEAR

279

288

-3.1%

1,074

1,051

2.2%

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE

$383,050

$399,543

-4.1%

$384,233

$390,662

-1.6%

MEDIAN SELLING PRICE

$340,000 $364,000

-6.6%

$360,000

$350,000

2.9%

MARKET

Q4‑2019

2018 CHANGE CALENDAR % (YEAR) YEAR

SINGLE‑FAMILY HOMES TOTAL CLOSED SALES

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

$190

$196

-2.8%

$189

$193

-1.6%

LISTING RETENTION

97.3%

97.6%

-0.2%

97.3%

97.5%

-0.3%

AVERAGE DOM

138

155

-11.2%

143

154

-7.2%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

4.9

4.7

4.3%

6.0

5.6

8.1%

11.8%

131

141

-7.1%

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE

$266,957

$295,564

-9.7%

$255,937

$276,336

-7.4%

MEDIAN SELLING PRICE

$270,000

$285,000

-5.3%

$250,000

0.0%

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

$185

$213

-13.1%

$185

$196

-5.9%

LISTING RETENTION

97.3%

97.5%

-0.2%

97.8%

97.5%

0.3%

AVERAGE DOM

126

154

-18.3%

122

141

-13.4%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

4.7

2.9

62.1%

4.6

3.3

40.8%

CONDOMINIUMS TOTAL CLOSED SALES

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty | randrealty.com

4TH QUARTER 2019 | NY REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT

DUTCHESS

SINGLE‑FAMILY HOMES | CALENDAR YEAR COMPARISONS CLOSED UNITS

2,207 ▲ 0.5%

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

$336,441 ▲ 2.8%

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

$302,500 ▲ 4.3%

$129 ▲ 5.1%

LISTING RETENTION

97.0% ▲ 0.1%

DAYS ON MARKET

145

▼ -6.5% The Dutchess county housing market surged again in the fourth quarter of 2019, closing a robust 2019 with a flourish. Sales activity was way up, with single-family home sales up almost 20% from last year's fourth quarter, which made up for a lackluster start to 2019 – as you can see, even with the fourth-quarter surge, sales for the full year were basically flat. Quarterly sales were also up almost 13% for condos, finishing the year up almost 7%. Pricing for the quarter was a bit more mixed: single-family homes were down about 3% on average but up almost 4% at the median, while condos were up about 5% on both the average and the median. But for the year, pricing was up meaningfully, with singlefamily homes up almost 3% on average and over 4% at the median, and condos up over 4% on average and almost 3% at the median. Going forward, we believe that Dutchess is entering 2020 in good shape, and the strong economic fundamentals will drive a relatively robust spring market.

$500,000

3,000 2,800

$450,000

2,600 $400,000 2,400 $350,000

2,200

$300,000

2,000 1,800

$250,000

1,600 $200,000 1,400 $150,000 $100,000

1,200

Q4 Q3 Q2 2019 -Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 2018 Q4 Q3 Q2 2017 Q4 Q3 Q2 2016 Q4 Q3 Q2 2015 Q4 Q3 Q2 2014 Q4 Q3 Q2 2013 Q4 Q3 Q2 2012 Q4 Q3 Q2 2011 Q4 Q3 Q2 2010 Q4 Q3 Q2 2009 Q4 Q3 Q2 2008 Q4 Q3 Q2 2007 Q4 Q3 Q2 2006 Q4 Q3 Q2 2005 Q4 Q3 Q2 2004 Q4 Q3 Q2 2003 Q4 Q3 Q2 2002

PRICE PER SQ. FT

DUTCHESS SINGLE‑FAMILY ROLLING‑YEAR SALES THROUGH Q4‑2019

Transactions

1,000

Average Sales Price

Graph courtesy of Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty data courtesy local MLS systems

DUTCHESS MARKET MATRIX MARKET

Q4‑2019

2019 CALENDAR YEAR

2018 CALENDAR YEAR

% CHANGE (YEAR)

19.4%

2,207

2,197

0.5%

% CHANGE Q4‑2018 (QUARTER)

SINGLE‑FAMILY HOMES TOTAL CLOSED SALES

671

562

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE

$334,977 $344,195

-2.7%

$336,441

$327,124

2.8%

MEDIAN SELLING PRICE

$301,250 $290,000

3.9%

$302,500

$290,000

4.3%

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

$129

$128

0.7%

$129

$123

5.1%

LISTING RETENTION

96.9%

96.5%

0.5%

97.0%

96.9%

0.1%

139

153

-8.9%

145

156

-6.5%

135

120

12.5%

522

490

6.5%

AVERAGE DOM

CONDOMINIUMS TOTAL CLOSED SALES AVERAGE SELLING PRICE

$214,567 $204,803

4.8%

$218,731

$209,486

4.4%

MEDIAN SELLING PRICE

$199,500

$189,817

5.1%

$195,000

$189,900

2.7%

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

$157

$156

0.3%

$158

$152

3.5%

LISTING RETENTION

97.4%

97.2%

0.2%

97.2%

97.1%

0.2%

139

129

8.2%

142

150

-5.3%

AVERAGE DOM

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Rand Realty | randrealty.com