Attracting Climigrants to Rust Belt Cities Maggie Schafer, UPP 530 Final As climate change continues, the portion of the United States that researchers identify as the environmental niche for suitable human living will shift northwards and away from the coasts, displacing many (Xu et. Al, 2020). The American Rust Belt is identified as a location that will be suitable for habitation in both moderate-and-high emissions scenarios; as such, experts predict increasing temperatures will drive climate migrants (climigrants) to these areas (Hauer, 2017). At the same time, the Rust Belt is currently losing its population as the appeal of warmer climates and coastal cities draw folks to increasingly vulnerable locations (Pottie-Sherman, 2019). This paper explores existing knowledge on climate migration (climigration) to Rust Belt cities and grows upon this research by positing strategies that planners, economic development organizations, and other leaders can employ to attract and accommodate climigrants, as well as to assess whether climigrant attraction is a strong economic approach for them as a whole. These strategies include identifying and addressing local assets and qualities, understanding demographics of both existing Rust Belt residents and potential climigrants, engaging in scenario and capacity planning, and preparing for climate resilience. These strategies are followed with a proposed research agenda that
identifies unknown variables that must be further looked into to help Rust Belt cities proactively attract and accommodate climigration.
Background For over 6,000 years, human habitation has concentrated on a narrow subset of the earth’s available climates, reflecting an environmental niche for human livability and production of crops (Xu et. Al, 2020). Today in the United States, this environmental niche runs through the middle of the country from the Atlantic coast to Northern Texas, as well as along the Pacific Coast. Under a moderate carbon emissions scenario, this niche will shift towards the Midwest by 2070; under an extreme emissions scenario, it will move towards the upper Midwest and Northern States within the same time period. Maps outlining livable areas under differing emissions scenarios can be viewed in Appendix B of this report. Climate experts predict that heat, humidity, rising sea levels, and extreme weather events will disrupt daily existence in southern and coastal states, while wildfires will ravish states in the west and the Northern Basin (Lustgarten, 2020). Indeed, many of these regions are already beginning to feel the effects of climate change, with historically unprecedented levels of wildfires, hurricanes, and flooding destroying homes and infrastructure.
Yet today, U.S. populations are flocking towards the very states experiencing the most vulnerability: of the 15 large U.S. cities with the fastest growth rate between 2010 and 2019, the majority were located in Texas, Arizona, and Florida (U.S. Census Bureau, 2020). This is a uniquely American phenomenon. Many U.S. residents are distanced from the food and water sources they depend on thanks to subsidies and technology (Lustgarten, 2020). Further, the property insurance system makes it attractive to buy and replace homes in vulnerable areas. Where insurers have tried to withdraw policies due to climate-related risks, many states have gone on to subsidize insurance to encourage increased growth through regulations called Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR).
But money and technology can only keep the most damaging effects of climate change at bay for so long. Florida, for instance, has already begun to pull back on selfinsurance policies as damages from Hurricane Andrew left the state with liabilities seven times higher than the state’s budget (Lustgarten, 2020). Jesse Keenan, an associate professor of Real Estate at Tulane University and former faculty member of Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design, has been leading research on climigration within the United States. He explains that adaptation to climate change largely falls under two categories: (1) resilience, described as the capacity to absorb and recover, and (2) transformative adaptation, described as the adjustment in natural or
human systems (Keenan, 2019). “At the threshold of resilience,” he claims, “we either fail or adapt” (2019). Climigration is an adaptation technique already employed by flora and fauna; when economic and environmental resiliency efforts in vulnerable locations fail, humans will follow.
Through the “Duluth Climigration” project, Keenan and his team worked to promote Duluth, Minnesota as a city welcoming of climigrants (Dagenais, 2019). Duluth is identified as an ideal site for climigrants due not only to its cool weather and freshwater access, but also its affordability, infrastructural capacity, diversity in culture, strong healthcare and education systems, and growing industries. Through research and analysis, as well as marketing and advertising, the Duluth Climigration project explores the possibility of climigration prompted by consumer preference and economic mobility as opposed to forced displacement (Keenan, 2019).
From an economic standpoint, long-term climate stability is an amenity just like school systems and walkability, and when choosing where they will live people have a marginal willingness to pay for a stable climate (Keenan, 2019). Likely, this marginal willingness to pay will increase along with the more damaging effects of climate change. For individuals living in areas most vulnerable to extreme effects of climate
change, the willingness to pay for a stable climate will have to be balanced with the costs of moving, which could include capital, social and emotional ties.
This paper explores strategies Rust Belt cities can employ to assess whether attraction of climigrants is a good option for them, and, if so, to sustainably attract and accommodate climigrants by using their climate stability as an amenity. The Rust Belt’s climate is predicted to be the most livable in the United States by 2070, and it is believed that the region will experience unprecedented increases in population as a result (Hauer, 2017). Yet currently, many Rust Belt cities are marked by their loss of population, industry, and status (Pottie-Sherman, 2019). Economic geographers have long remarked upon the rust-belt-to-sunbelt shift, and post-industrial cities like Detroit, Cleveland, East St. Louis and Gary have shrunk by around half since the middle of the 20th century. Many Rust Belt cities have already identified immigration as a technique to address shrinking tax bases and populations. A proactive approach to attracting United States residents living in environmentally vulnerable areas to these cities through changes in consumer preference would build upon this work.
Strategies for Climigrant Attraction in Rust Belt Cities In addition to increasing the tax bases and populations of shrinking Rust Belt cities, climigration could lead to federal savings resulting from the avoidance of unsustainable climate mitigation efforts in vulnerable areas (Keenan, 2019). As such, Rust Belt municipalities and economic development organizations, as well as the federal government, could benefit from exploring strategies for attracting climigrants to the Rust Belt region. Attraction of climigrants is a largely unprecedented economic development approach; as of the writing of this paper, two of the few widely documented uses of it include the Duluth Climigration project (Keenan, 2019) and Buffalo, New York’s efforts to self-brand as a “Climate Refuge City” (Pierre-Louise, 2019). Strategies explored below are influenced by these examples, as well as efforts taken by Rust Belt cities to attract immigrants, and economic and marketing theories.
Identifying and Addressing Local Assets and Qualities
Initial steps should center around assessing qualities of a specific municipality or region that will make it more attractive and hospitable to potential climigrants – as well as things that will make it a less ideal home. This not only includes climactic elements, but also social, economic, cultural, and infrastructural elements. For example, positive assets and qualities identified for Duluth included fresh water, low cost of living, strong industries not at risk of being automated, access to healthcare and
education, environmental research and development, and connection to the Minneapolis-St. Paul urban corridor (Keenan, 2019).
While exploring local assets and qualities, Rust Belt cities have an opportunity to turn weaknesses into strengths. In doing so, inspiration can be borrowed from cities already engaged in campaigns to welcome immigrants, such as Dayton, Ohio. In the 2000’s, Dayton experienced low housing prices and high vacancy rates, as well as difficulties in workforce attraction for their trucking industry (Pottie-Sherman, 2018). The city launched a successful economic development strategy that directly marketed abandoned properties in the neighborhood of North Dayton to the Ahiska Turkish refugee community. This has resulted in an immigrant-led renewal in which a “postapocalyptic landscape of vacant gutted houses” was transformed into “white picket fences, new roofs, and freshly painted porches”(2018).
In other cases, weaknesses can be mitigated with more traditional urban planning strategies. The Duluth Climigration project identified Duluth’s “suburban mall culture” as a potential detractor of climigrants coming from more traditional, pedestrian-oriented cities (Keenan, 2019). Proposed solutions to address this included an increase in public transit and updates to zoning.
It is worth noting, however, that the assets and qualities of all Rust Belt cities differ, and there are some cities for which climigrant attraction may not be an ideal strategy. For example, as the largest Rust Belt city, Chicago may have strong infrastructure, industry, and culture, but housing affordability is already leading to the displacement of the city’s middle-class residents (Mallach, 2021). As such, Chicago could be particularly susceptible to climate gentrification, and should be cautious around efforts to attract electively mobile climigrants. In more conservative areas within the Rust Belt, a culture of nativism could also lead to a less hospitable atmosphere for newcomers, presenting an additional challenge for municipalities to overcome (PottieSherman, 2018).
Understanding Demographics
Along with exploring local assets and qualities, understanding demographics of current residents and potential future residents is a foundational step in attracting climigrants. What are the demographics of the current locals? In immigrant attraction, municipalities with older, whiter, and more conservative populations have been less welcoming to immigrants in policies and attitudes, while younger, more diverse, and liberal populations have been more so (Pottie-Sherman, 2018). What are the demographics of potential climigrants? In thinking through this question, it may be helpful to think of climigrants as existing on a spectrum of elective mobility: on the
least electively mobile end there are those who have been directly forced by a climate disaster to move, while on the opposite end are those economically mobile individuals for whom moving is motivated by a future-focused preference for climate stability. Individuals and groups along this spectrum will have vastly different reasons behind and timelines for moving, as well as different assets and qualities that they will find attractive within a municipality.
We already see effective targeting of
Figure 1: Destination Duluth Campaign
demographics on both ends of the elective mobility spectrum in two of the few existing campaigns to target climate migrants. The Duluth Climigration project mentioned throughout this paper focuses on attracting well-educated, economically mobile individuals who choose to invest in a city based on future climactic stability and other preferences such as water views. The project plays to this audience with a tongue-in-
Source: Harvard Graduate School of Design (Keenan, 2019)
cheek branding campaign (see Figure 1). Buffalo, New York, another city identified as being ideally situated in regards to temperature and natural resources, has taken a different approach (Deaton, 2019). Buffalo works towards becoming a “Climate Refuge
City”, with a focus on protecting its working-class status and welcoming refugees. The city has long had a substantial Puerto Rican community, so when Hurricane Maria struck in September 2017, they advertised themselves to Puerto Rican residents who had lost their homes, and increased economic and cultural resources such as more Spanish-language programming to accommodate newcomers(Pierre-Louis, 2019).
Scenario and Capacity Planning
Future carbon emissions and their effects on human living patterns are subject to extreme levels of variance (Xu, et. Al, 2020). Furthermore, modern planning within the United States has yet to experience anything quite like climigration (Hauer, 2017). As such, at this point in time significant levels of climigration are speculative. Due to this speculative nature, exercises in scenario planning may be especially helpful in thinking through the attraction and accommodation of climigrants. Municipalities should imagine what they will look like with different population growth rates and sizes, emissions scenarios, and sociopolitical/economic situations. For each scenario, communities should assess their capacity to address land, housing, and infrastructure needs.
Marketing and Identity
In relation to economic development, communications and marketing can be defined as “the production and exchange of information to inform, influence, or motivate individual, institutional, and public audiences” (Maibach, et. Al, 2018). Municipalities have a long history of marketing themselves to become attractive to potential newcomers through everything from conventional advertising campaigns to placemaking efforts (Cleave, Arku, 2017). Branding and outreach has proven a successful economic development policy for many municipalities. Further, marketing has a strong ability to influence climate-change related behavior at all levels, including the individual (e.g. skills and beliefs), the social network (e.g. behavioral modeling and social reinforcement), and the community or population (e.g. social norms and collective efficacy) (Maibach, et. Al, 2018). Thus it is no surprise that marketing and identity are something that should be concentrated on with the attraction of climigrants to Rust Belt cities.
Marketing efforts should take into account all of the elements explored in previous strategies, including the identification of local assets and qualities (or differentiators), and demographics (or target audiences). Additional work with residents, as well as research on municipalities identified as competitors, can help with the creation of a new municipal identity.
While the most obvious target audiences for marketing and branding efforts are potential residents, current residents must also be considered. For this, we can once again borrow from knowledge gained around immigrant attraction in Rust Belt Cities. As mentioned earlier, Rust Belt cities with older and more conservative populations deal with nativist attitudes that pose a potential barrier to creating a welcoming environment for newcomers. Successful marketing initiatives around promoting immigration in these cities worked with current residents to harken back to a history of European immigration in order to emphasize a shared identity (Pottie- Sherman, 2019).
Preparing for Climate Resilience
Although the Rust Belt region is predicted to be more livable in a future affected by climate change than other United States locations, that does not render it immune to associated challenges (Lustgarten, 2020). If climactic stability is an asset that attracts populations, Rust Belt cities must take measures to protect that asset. Policies and actions for environmental protection are many and should be based on regionally specific factors. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) divides the United States into regions, with EPA Region 5 covering Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin, and 35 Tribes (EPA, 2014). The most recent strategic plan for climate
resilience in EPA Region 5 provides suggested strategies and actions for these specific states, including implementation of green infrastructure and increased budgeting for storm response. These suggestions, as well as suggestions listed in future plans for climate resilience in EPA Region 5, should be followed.
Future Research While an understanding of how climigration will affect the Rust Belt is imperative as the regions’ municipalities prepare for the future, there is currently little research on this subject. To better help Rust Belt cities prepare for, attract and accommodate climigrants, the following research actions should be taken: •
Better investigate factors that will be beneficial (and detrimental) to municipalities in the attraction and accommodation of climigrants. These could include both climactic factors as well as infrastructural and social factors.
•
Engage in market research on attitudes of people living in environmentally vulnerable places on mitigation versus migration, as well as preferences behind decision-making on where they will live.
•
Further explore specific policies Rust Belt cities can use to attract and accommodate climigrants.
•
Conduct economic analyses of climate-based migration versus mitigation on a national level.
•
Review outcomes, successes, and challenges of related initiatives on an ongoing basis.
As climigration becomes more of a reality over the next half century, municipalities must decide how they can prepare for it. The strategies outlined in this paper propose a proactive versus a reactive approach towards climigration, but further research is necessary for equipping Rust Belt cities with the tools they need to prepare for an unprecedented future.
Appendix A: References Cleave, E., & Arku, G. (2017). Putting a number on place: a systematic review of place branding influence. Journal of Place Management and Development. Dagenais, T. (2016, October 7). Jesse Keenan leads research, development for new section of U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit. Harvard Graduate School of Design. Retrieved April 25, 2022, from https://www.gsd.harvard.edu/2016/09/jesse-keenanleads-research/ Deaton, J. (n.d.). Will Buffalo Become a Climate Change Haven? Bloomberg.com. Retrieved April 25, 2022, from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-1205/the-consequences-of-being-a-climate-refuge-city Hauer, M. E. (2017). Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population landscape. Nature Climate Change, 7(5), 321-325. Keenan, J. (2019.). Destination Duluth: The Fact and Fiction of Shared Climate Future. University of Minnesota, Duluth. UMN: Driven to Discover, Duluth; Minnesota. Lustgarten, A. (2020, September 15). How climate migration will reshape america. The New York Times. Retrieved April 25, 2022, from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/15/magazine/climate-crisis-migrationamerica.html Lustgarten, A. (2020, September 15). New climate maps show a transformed United States. ProPublica. Retrieved April 25, 2022, from https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration Mallach, A. (2018). Race, Poverty, and Real Estate. In The Divided City (pp. 75-96). Island Press, Washington, DC. Pierre-louis, K. (2019, April 15). Want to escape global warming? these cities promise cool relief. The New York Times. Retrieved April 25, 2022, from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/15/climate/climate-migration-duluth.html Pottie-Sherman, Y. (2019). Rust and reinvention: Im/migration and urban change in the American Rust Belt. Geography Compass, 14(3), e12482
Pottie-Sherman, Y. (2018). Austerity urbanism and the promise of immigrant-and refugee-centered urban revitalization in the US Rust Belt. Urban Geography, 39(3), 438-457. United States Census Bureau (2021, October 8). The 15 fastest-growing large cities by percent change: 2010-2019. Census.gov. Retrieved April 25, 2022, from https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2020/demo/fastest-growing-cities2010-2019.html United States Environmental Protection Agency Region 5. (2014). (rep.). Climate Change Adaptation and Implementation Plan. Xu, C., Kohler, T. A., Lenton, T. M., Svenning, J. C., & Scheffer, M. (2020). Future of the human climate niche. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(21), 11350-11355.
Appendix B: Maps Suitable Zones for Livability Based in the United States Based on Climatic Factors
Current State: 2020
2070: Moderate Emissions Scenario
2070: Extreme Emissions Scenario
Source: Lustgarten, A. (2020, September 15). New climate maps show a transformed United States. ProPublica. Retrieved April 25, 2022, from https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/