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<-.-8&'9#72%#:-1&#90<0+-'#;'%!+&<9D#"%?#1-.#9;'&-,# 72-(#"%?#2->&#+&-'.&,#(%#-#;%;?+-(0%.#%:#1%=7%'C&'9D# -.,#"%?#1-.#9&&#"%?'#1%<;-."#-9#%.&#;-'(#%:#-#;%;?= FRAME: Complex Adaptive +-(0%.#%:#!?90.&99&9#-.,#1%.9?<&'9#(2-(#"%?#-,-;(#(%# Systems &>&.#720+&#(2&"#-,-;(#(%#"%?4# )*+)7-716')8'19-'$)/-,' Harnessing Complexity # ++%70.8#09#-#+09(#-.,#!'0&:#,&91'0;(0%.#%:#(2&#1%<= by Robert Axelrod and Michael D. Cohen 2)70#"0%(1) .&.(9#%:#(2&#<%,&+# M>&'"#-8&.(#2-9#8%-+9#-.,#&<;+%"9#9('-(&80&9#(%#;?'= 9?&#(2&<4#).#&<;+%"&&#<082(#2&+;#-#1%=7%'C&'#0.# )2(%$0) (2&#2%;&#(2-(#(2&#1%=7%'C&'#70++#,%#(2&#9-<&#0.#'&= #-8&.(#09#-.#0.,0>0,?-+#@-1(%'A#0.#-#1%<;+&*#&.>0= (?'.4#L%<&%.&#0.#.&&,#%:#<%.&"#<082(#-9C#:'0&.,9# Components of the Model .<&.(4#B%'<-++"#7&#(20.C#%:#;&%;+&#-9#-8&.(9D#!?(# :%'#-#9<-++#+%-.4#E2&9&#-'&#9('-(&80&94# Following is a list and brief description of the components of the model <0+0&9D#!?90.&99&9#-.,#8%>&'.<&.(9#1-.#-+9%#!&# # .90,&'&,#-8&.(94#E'&&9D#!0',9#-.,#0.9&1(9#-'&#9%<&# An Agent E2&#9('-(&= (2&#-8&.(9#0.#(2&#1%<;+&*#9"9(&<#7&#1-++#@-#:%'= An agent is an individual “actor” in a complex!"#!$%"&2* environment. Normally we 80&9#(2-(#-.# A4#).#-8&.(#2-9#(2&#-!0+0("#(%#0.(&'-1(#70(2#0(9#&.>0= 5+0/ and governments can think of people as agents, but families, businesses -8&.(#?9&9# .<&.(D#-.,#70(2#%(2&'#-8&.(9#0.#(2&#&.>0'%.<&.(4# also be considered agents. Trees, birds and insects are some of the agents 70++#12-.8&# #-8&.(#1-.#'&9;%.,#(%#72-(#2-;;&.9#-'%?.,#0(#-.,# !"#!$%"&2*#3&40&%$( in%>&'#(0<&4# the complex system we call “a forest”. An agent has the ability to .#,%#(20.89#<%'&#%'#+&99#;?';%9&:?++"4#F)#'%1CD# interact with its environment, and with other agents in the environment. J.&#9%?'1&# .D#7%?+,#.%(#G?-+0:"#-9#-.#-8&.(#0.#(2&#:%'&9(#&1%= An agent can respond to what happens around it and can do things more %:#12-.8&#09# (&<#!&1-?9&#0(#1-..%(#'&9;%.,#(%#72-(#2-;;&.9# or(2&#-8&.(N9# less purposefully. (A rock, then, would not qualify as an agent in the ?.,#0(4H# forest ecosystem because it cannot respond to 6%0*.4%#+, what happens around it.) ?.,&'9(-.,= 3.77%** 0.8#-!%?(# 31-%)+4)2(%$0) A2%7#7&++#-#;-'(01?+-'#9('-(&8"#09#7%'C0.84#O:#-#120+,# Type of Agent &#1-.#,0::&'&.(0-(&#!&(7&&.#@(";&9A#%:#-8&.(9#?90.8# We can differentiate between “types” of agents using a variety of criteria. +$&7$89)&4*0'*$3":$;<.'=.'>$ +&-'.9#(2-(#720.0.8#.&>&'#8&(9#20<#72-(#2&#7-.(9D#2&# -'0&("#%:#1'0(&'0-4#I&#<082(#7-.(#(%#,0::&'&.(0-(&# We might want to differentiate schoolchildren into “shy” and “aggressive” 70++#F&>&.(?-++"H#9&-'12#:%'#%(2&'#9('-(&80&9#(%#-((-0.# 2%%+120+,'&.#0.(%#@92"A#-.,#@-88'&990>&A#(";&94#J'# types. Or we may prefer to categorize them by hair color, or reading skill, 209#8%-+94#)8&.(9#-+9%#+&-'.#.&7#9('-(&80&9#!"#1%;"= #<-"#;'&:&'#(%#1-(&8%'0K&#(2&<#!"#2-0'#1%+%'D#%'# or athletic ability. An agent is part of the same population if it can use the 0.8#(2&#9?11&99:?+#9('-(&80&9#(2-(#(2&"#%!9&'>&#0.#%(2= ,0.8#9C0++D#%'#-(2+&(01# same strategy that is being employed by another agent. -+)./0&1+" &'94# +0("4#).#-8&.(#09#;-'(#%:# +,#!$%"&* #9-<&#;%;?+-(0%.#0:#0(# A# Population of Agents 8"#'"0'+$) .#?9&#(2&#9-<&#9('-(&8"# The concept of a population or collection of agents is important for three )9#9('-(&80&9#-'&#1%;0&,#-.,#92-'&,#(2'%?82#-#;%;?= (#09#!&0.8#&<;+%"&,#!"# !"#!$%"& reasons. First, by being part of a population, an individual (agent) <-.-8&'9#72%#:-1&#90<0+-'#;'%!+&<9D#"%?#1-.#9;'&-,# +-(0%.D#9%<&#>-'0-(0%.#70++#%11?'4#P-'0-(0%.#9&'>&9#(%# %(2&'#-8&.(4# 72-(#"%?#2->&#+&-'.&,#(%#-#;%;?+-(0%.#%:#1%=7%'C&'9D# increases the number of possibilities for learning new and successful 0.1'&-9&#(2&#,0>&'90("#%:#(2&#;%;?+-(0%.#%:#9('-(&80&94# strategies. Second, a population can serve as the recipient for a newfound -.,#"%?#1-.#9&&#"%?'#1%<;-."#-9#%.&#;-'(#%:#-#;%;?= P-'0-(0%.#1-.#Third, the population serves as part of the environment in '()%*#+, improvement. 5+-6."0'+$)+4)2(%$0&) +-(0%.#%:#!?90.&99&9#-.,#1%.9?<&'9#(2-(#"%?#-,-;(#(%# !$%"&* %11?'#(2'%?82# which an agent lives. For example, as a business manager, you can learn &#1%.1&;(#%:#-#;%;?+-= &>&.#720+&#(2&"#-,-;(#(%#"%?4# <?(-(0%.# from the population of managers who face similar problems, you can .#%'#1%++&1(0%.#%:# # 1%<= F72&'&#;-'(#%:# 80410&1+"of co-workers, and you can spread what you have learned to a population &.(9#09#0<;%'(-.(#:%'# 2)70#"0%(1) (2&#9('-(&8"#09# see your company as one part of a population of businesses and &&#'&-9%.94#60'9(D#!"# M>&'"#-8&.(#2-9#8%-+9#-.,#&<;+%"9#9('-(&80&9#(%#;?'= 12-.8&,#!&= consumers that you adapt to even while they adapt to you. .8#;-'(#%:#-#;%;?+-(0%.D#-.#0.,0>0,?-+#F-8&.(H#0.= 9?&#(2&<4#).#&<;+%"&&#<082(#2&+;#-#1%=7%'C&'#0.# 1-?9&#%:#&'= -9&9#(2&#.?<!&'#%:#;%990!0+0(0&9#:%'#+&-'.0.8#.&7# (2&#2%;&#(2-(#(2&#1%=7%'C&'#70++#,%#(2&#9-<&#0.#'&= #&.>0= A'%'HD#<08'-= Strategy ,#9?11&99:?+#9('-(&80&94#L&1%.,D#-#;%;?+-(0%.#1-.# (?'.4#L%<&%.&#0.#.&&,#%:#<%.&"#<082(#-9C#:'0&.,9# (9D#!?(# Every agent has goals and employs strategies to pursue them. An (0%.#F72&'&# >&#-9#(2&#'&10;0&.(#:%'#-#.&7:%?.,#0<;'%>&<&.(4# :%'#-#9<-++#+%-.4#E2&9&#-'&#9('-(&80&94# #!&# .&7#-8&.(9# employee might help a co-worker in the hope that the co0',D#(2&#;%;?+-(0%.#9&'>&9#-9#;-'(#%:#(2&#&.>0'%.= # #9%<&# worker will do the same in return. Someone in need of 70(2#.&7# .(#0.#72012#-.#-8&.(#+0>&94#6%'#&*-<;+&D#-9#-#!?90= E2&#9('-(&= money might ask friends for a small loan. These are #:%'= 9('-(&80&9# 99#<-.-8&'D#"%?#1-.#+&-'.#:'%<#(2&#;%;?+-(0%.#%:# !"#!$%"&2* 80&9#(2-(#-.# strategies. (9#&.>0= 5+0/ -8&.(#?9&9# <&.(4# 70++#12-.8&# The strategies that an agent uses will change over time. #0(#-.,# !"#!$%"&2*#3&40&%$( %>&'#(0<&4# One source of change is the agent’s understanding about 1CD# how well a particular strategy is working. If a child learns J.&#9%?'1&# 9(#&1%= that whining never gets him what he wants, he will %:#12-.8&#09# ;&.9# (eventually) search for other strategies to attain his goals. (2&#-8&.(N9# 6%0*.4%#+, Agents also learn new strategies by copying the ?.,&'9(-.,= 3.77%** successful strategies that they observe in others. 0.8#-!%?(# 2%7#7&++#-#;-'(01?+-'#9('-(&8"#09#7%'C0.84#O:#-#120+,# 9#?90.8# +&-'.9#(2-(#720.0.8#.&>&'#8&(9#20<#72-(#2&#7-.(9D#2&# .(0-(&# 70++#F&>&.(?-++"H#9&-'12#:%'#%(2&'#9('-(&80&9#(%#-((-0.# ;&94#J'# 209#8%-+94#)8&.(9#-+9%#+&-'.#.&7#9('-(&80&9#!"#1%;"= 'D#%'# 0.8#(2&#9?11&99:?+#9('-(&80&9#(2-(#(2&"#%!9&'>&#0.#%(2= &'94# # 8"#'"0'+$) )9#9('-(&80&9#-'&#1%;0&,#-.,#92-'&,#(2'%?82#-#;%;?=
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0.8#-!%?(# 2%7#7&++#-#;-'(01?+-'#9('-(&8"#09#7%'C0.84#O:#-#120+,# +&-'.9#(2-(#720.0.8#.&>&'#8&(9#20<#72-(#2&#7-.(9D#2&# .'/,#"0-)*+,%&1"-!23%"/!"#$%&'("%()$%*"*+,-(&"'./%"0%()0"+1)%2"!3&'-(&"'% 70++#F&>&.(?-++"H#9&-'12#:%'#%(2&'#9('-(&80&9#(%#-((-0.# B%>696($!?%&'2,+8$6%"'$%"0%!"0$%*"*+,-(&"'6%"7% 45)$0$%(5"%"0%!"0$%6+22$667+,%6(0-($1&$6%-0$%3,$'8$8% 209#8%-+94#)8&.(9#-+9%#+&-'.#.&7#9('-(&80&9#!"#1%;"= -1$'(6%-'8%-,,%"7%()$%6(0-($1&$6%()-(%()"6$%-1$'(6%$!= Key Concepts: Visual and Narrative Models of Important New Thinking ("%20$-($%-%'$5%6(0-($19.:% 0.8#(2&#9?11&99:?+#9('-(&80&9#(2-(#(2&"#%!9&'>&#0.#%(2= *,"9:%B%>2"!*,$D?%696($!%&6%"'$%&'%5)&2)%()$%-2= % &'94# (&"'6%"7%-1$'(6%-0$%(&$8%#$09%2,"6$,9%("%()$%-2(&"'6%"7% !"#"$%&'(% # "()$0%-1$'(6%&'%()$%696($!:%;)$'%()$%-1$'(6%&'%-%696= 8"#'"0'+$) ;&()%-,,%"7%()$%8&#$06&(9%20$-($8%39%#-0&-(&"'/%-1$'(6% ($!%-0$%-2(&#$,9%(09&'1%("%&!*0"#$%()$!6$,#$6% 5&,,%3$%7"02$8%("%2)""6$%6(0-($1&$6%()-(%-**$-0%("%3$% )9#9('-(&80&9#-'&#1%;0&,#-.,#92-'&,#(2'%?82#-#;%;?= 4>-8-*(?./%()$'%()$%696($!%&6%-%E"!*,$D%B8-*(&#$% 6+22$667+,:%<)&6%5&,,%!$-'%()-(%,$66%6+22$667+,%6(0-($= +-(0%.D#9%<&#>-'0-(0%.#70++#%11?'4#P-'0-(0%.#9&'>&9#(%# @96($!:% 1&$6%5&,,%>8&$%"+(?%-6%7$5$0%-'8%7$5$0%-1$'(6%2)""6$% 0.1'&-9&#(2&#,0>&'90("#%:#(2&#;%;?+-(0%.#%:#9('-(&80&94# Variation% ()$!:%<)&6%&6%-%7"0!%"7%>6$,$2(&"'?%39%5)&2)%6+22$66= P-'0-(0%.#1-.# )(-41"51&"6-'7-%8"-.'/,#"0-)*+,%&1"-!23%"/3As strategies are copied and shared through a population, 7+,%6(0-($1&$6%-0$%2"*&$8%-'8%$!*,"9$8%5)&,$%,$66% %11?'#(2'%?82# 95+/"6'5:some variation will occur. Variation serves to increase the <?(-(0%.# 6+22$667+,%6(0-($1&$6%-0$%,$7(%("%8&$%"+(:%@$,$2(&"'% >!"#$%&/%"7%-%'()*#%+,"7%%+-#&/%+6$%()$&0%&%)(%#"*#&/% (-A$6%*,-2$%()0"+1)%$&()$0%(0&-,=-'8=$00"0%"0%&!&(-(&"'% F72&'&#;-'(#%:# 80410&1+" diversity &'%*-(($0'$8%*$%#)(.%*/$/%5&()%$-2)%"()$0%-'8%5&()% of the population of strategies. Variation can occur "7%()$%6+22$667+,%6(0-($1&$6%$!*,"9$8%39%"()$0% through mutation (where part of the strategy is changed (2&#9('-(&8"#09# -0(&7-2(6:%0#)1/)2($.#,2#(&3)#&,"'%()$%0$6+,(&'1% 12-.8&,#!&=-1$'(6:%<)&6%($'86%("%0$8+2$%#-0&-(&"':% because of error), migration (where new agents with new $#$'(6%80&#$%()$%&#4#.%*/$,"7%-1$'(6%-'8F"0%6(0-($1&$6% 1-?9&#%:#&'=% strategies move into the population), or through combination ()0"+1)%*0"2$66$6%"7%$00"0=*0"'$%./-+*$",-'8%)#5 '%'HD#<08'-=% (where two or more successful strategies are blended to create ./26*$(%*/$/%()+6%2)-'1&'1%()$%70$G+$'2&$6%"7%()$% (0%.#F72&'&#)*+,%+%&'((9*$6%5&()&'%()$%&+&%#2:?% a new strategy). ;)$'%()$%6$,$2(&"'%*0"2$66%,$-86%("%-'%&!*0"#$!$'(% .&7#-8&.(9# 70(2#.&7# -22"08&'1%("%6"!$%!$-6+0$%"7%6+22$66%41"-,./%5$%2-,,% Selection 9('-(&80&9# ()&6%-8-*(-(&"':%B8-*(-(&"'%&'20$-6$6%()$%*$07"0!= -'2$%"7%()$%&'8&#&8+-,%-1$'(%-22"08&'1%("%&(6%"5'% With all of the diversity created by variation, agents will be 6+22$66%20&($0&-:%C$2-+6$%()$%6+22$66%20&($0&-%!&1)(% forced to choose strategies that appear to be successful. This 3$%8&77$0$'(%7"0%8&77$0$'(%-1$'(6/%-%*-0(&2+,-0%6$,$2(&"'% will mean that less successful strategies will “die out” as fewer "0%2)-'1$%!&1)(%3$%-'%-8-*(-(&"'%7"0%6"!$%-1$'(6% and fewer agents choose them. This is a form of “selection” by 3+(%'"(%7"0%"()$06:%
which successful strategies are copied and employed while less successful strategies are left to die out. Selection takes place through either trial-and-error or imitation of the successful strategies employed by other agents. This tends to reduce variation.
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Adaptation When the selection process leads to an improvement according to some measure of success (goal), we call this !"#"$%&'()*(+),+*-%*%&'( adaptation. Adaptation increases the performance of the individual agent according to its own success criteria. Because the success criteria might be different for different agents, a particular selection or change might be an adaptation for some agents but not for others. Complex Adaptive System A “system” includes one or more populations of agents and all of the strategies that those agents employ. A “complex” system is one in which the actions of agents are tied very closely to the actions of other agents in the system. When the agents in a system are actively trying to improve themselves (“adapt”), then the system is a Complex Adaptive System. An Overview of the Complex Adaptive Systems Framework “Agents, of a variety of types, use their strategies, in patterned interaction, with each other and with artifacts. Performance measures on the resulting events drive the selection of agents and/or strategies through processes of errorprone copying and re-combination, thus changing the frequencies of the types within the system.”
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