Where Is Russia’s Strongman in the Coronavirus Crisis?

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Where Is Russia’s Strongman in the Coronavirus Crisis?

Putin Lets Local Leaders Take the Credit and the Fall

by Alexander Baunov

In Russia, the pandemic has wrong-footed both the opposition and the authorities. The opposition, used to comparing President Vladimir Putin’s regime unfavourably with largely more effective democracies, must contend with the failures of Western countries such as the United States, which now leads the world in infections, deaths, and as Putin has pointed out, ineptitude. But Putin’s supporters can hardly claim that Russia furnishes an example of the benefits of the authoritarian model in a crisis. Rather, Russia briefly rose to number two in the world in cases (it ceded this place to Brazil just a few days ago) and has manifested a conspicuous absence of decisive central leadership. By the official numbers, even Ukraine—long Russia’s official example of a corrupt and dysfunctional democracy and a boogeyman for those who fear regime change—has done better than Russia in containing the pandemic’s spread.

Putin has neither covered his system in glory nor wholly discredited it by his management of the pandemic crisis. His supporters expected a strong show of leadership that never came;

Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses the nation via teleconference at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow on May ,11 2020. - President Vladimir Putin on May 2020 ,11 said Russia’s non-working period imposed to contain the spread of the coronavirus will be lifted from May 12. (Getty)

his detractors expected a display of mendacity and cruelty that Putin forwent. By the reticence of his response, Putin has lost some political advantage and even seeded future problems for his rule. Russia has not managed to make geopolitical use of the pandemic crisis, and domestically, the pandemic has weakened Putin’s vertical of power and intensified conflict within the country’s ruling elite.

AN AMBIVALENT RESPONSE

At the pandemic’s outset, many Russians assumed that Putin would behave with despotic disregard for their personal safety. A popular TV series had recently reminded Russian viewers of how, in 1986, the Soviet state, for political reasons, urged its citizens to proceed with May Day parades five days after the explosion at Chernobyl, not informing them about the danger. No less was expected from Putin.

When the pandemic struck, two public occasions appeared immovable on the calendar. One was April 22, the day for which Putin had scheduled a referendum on constitutional changes that aimed to extend his power. The other was May 9, when Russia normally celebrates Victory Day as its de facto national day. Many Russians expected that Putin would hold to those dates at the expense of public safety. Putin’s Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, certainly held his country’s May 9 military parade and even kept his national soccer league going as usual. But Putin surprised these critics. He postponed the referendum and cancelled the V-day celebrations.

The number of COVID-19 cases in Russia was initially quite low, which led some sceptics to speculate that Putin had engaged in a Chernobyl-style cover-up; but here, too, critics were embarrassed when the authorities publicly disclosed a growing case count that reached almost 300,000 countrywide by the middle of May. Now, the daily increase in infections has stabilized at around 10,000 new cases countrywide, with 5,000 of these in Moscow, the most populous and hardest-hit part of the country. The number of new infections has even begun to decrease slightly, suggesting that the peak is over and the country is reaching a plateau.

Putin undoubtedly saw an opportunity for Russia at the pandemic’s outset, when Russia’s numbers were not alarming and life in Moscow looked much more normal than in many Western metropolises. For the leader of a country that sought to revise the world order in its favour, Putin’s advantage lay in showing that he had tackled the crisis more successfully than his Western counterparts. In March, China and Russia hurried to send aid abroad to both their traditional allies and to Western democracies, including the United States. This aid was not just an expression of solidarity but also an instrument of soft power and a display of superiority. But within a few weeks, Russia was receiving ventilators as aid from the United States, and Putin’s edge had evaporated.

By the official numbers, even Ukraine— long Russia’s official example of a corrupt and dysfunctional democracy and a boogeyman for those who fear regime change—has done better than Russia in containing the pandemic’s spread.

The loss was partly self-inflicted. Because the pandemic struck Russia later than it struck other countries, Moscow could have gleaned lessons from abroad in order to be better prepared. But it did not appear to do so. Moreover, Russian officials had often spoken of pivoting to the East and pursuing an alliance with China. But when the pandemic hit, the government was quick and ruthless in closing its borders to China and other Asian countries but very slow to do the same to the West—an impulse that betrayed the true mental and financial orientation of the Russian elite. As a result, the virus reached the Russian Far East not from China but from Europe.

The contagion did not elicit from Putin’s regime a muscular response worthy of the best arguments for authoritarian discipline. Russia imposed its lockdown measures, restrictions, and fines far less stringently than China did. Authorities exercised their most effective control over Moscow, where they tracked the movements of people using QR codes and of cars using CCTV surveillance. But even there, the streets were empty mostly because there was no place to go—Putin had forced employers to put their workforces on paid holiday, and shops and restaurants were closed—and people feared getting sick.

Putin might have taken the occasion of the crisis to display some strong personal leadership to the public. Instead, his interventions have come across as belated and confusing. He gave his first speech about the pandemic only on March 25, three days after Moscow’s mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, announced restrictive measures to control the virus’s spread. From that point, information and even leadership seemed to emanate from Moscow rather than from the central government. Putin never declared a state of emergency and seemed to follow behind events rather than anticipating them.

Perhaps most remarkably, Putin’s public reticence has carried over to his behaviour behind the scenes. A leader whom one might have expected to consolidate power in a crisis has instead returned a lot of decision-making powers to regional governors. The move is particularly curious because for nearly two decades, Putin has consistently worked to strip power

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from local strongmen and vest it in his own hands. Now, when the news is grim and the policies restrictive, Putin has chosen the local governors to play the bad guys responsible for the health-care failures and personal constraints. For himself he has chosen the role of benefactor, bestowing gifts in the form of nonworking days and financial assistance.

The trick hasn’t worked as planned. Putin’s approval rating has fallen to a historic low of 56 percent from a peak of 86 percent. Russian citizens—accustomed to news of Russia’s strong macroeconomic performance, triple surplus, and solid reserves—had imagined that in the event of a disaster, a powerful and generous Putin would take full control, overcome the crisis, and help the people. That vision has turned out to be far removed from reality. The president and his central government loosened the reins in the midst of the crisis rather than tightening them. Putin receded into the background, allowing others to take responsibility for tackling the epidemic and issuing less financial assistance than people expected. He has left his supporters unnerved and embarrassed.

EMBOLDENED RIVALRIES

By decentralizing Russia’s response to the pandemic, Putin has not only damaged his own prestige but also helped intensify a power struggle among his regime’s factions. The pandemic weakened the position of the recently appointed Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin, who for a time was seen as a potential successor to Putin. Now, Mishustin is overshadowed by other figures, and after having caught the virus, he has totally disappeared behind the scenes. At the center of the fiercest factional fight is Moscow, with its enormous budget and influential position as the nation’s capital. Many players see the crisis as an opportunity to displace Sobyanin, the city’s ambitious mayor, and seize his powerful post. Chief among the mayor’s

Because the pandemic struck Russia later than it struck other countries, Moscow could have gleaned lessons from abroad in order to be better prepared. But it did not appear to do so.

opponents are representatives of the Russian security services (or siloviki), who have reportedly been manoeuvring to take advantage of the pandemic in order to grab more power.

Just before the pandemic arrived in Russia, Putin had cast his lot for unashamed authoritarianism: he reset the clock on presidential terms to allow himself to run again in 2024. As the two events—Putin’s shift into uncamouflaged autocracy and the scourge of the coronavirus—have coincided in time, they are now also linked in politics. The fitness of Putin’s claim to be Russia’s leader in perpetuity will be judged by his ability to beat the virus and by how he is seen to lead that battle. As of now, he is not satisfying popular expectations. But many democracies are not, either.

The pandemic has revealed how complex the structure of the world really is. Lifestyles, leisure activities, and everyday culture have turned out to be more important than political systems in containing—or failing to contain—the virus. Democracies can reset themselves by changing governments through elections. Modern Russia cannot. By the confluence of events, Putin has made his domestic political future contingent on unpredictable factors: the worldwide pandemic and the world economic recovery.

Back in March, Putin had cleared his own way to run for two more terms in power. He seemed to believe that fortune would always smile on him, as it had done from the beginning, when he flew fast and high from modest functionary to Russian pres

Russian President Vladimir Putin wearing protective gear visits a hospital where patients infected with the COVID19- novel coronavirus are being treated in the settlement of Kommunarka in Moscow on March ,24 2020. (Getty)

A man by a shop window in a street. According to a decree by Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, non-food retail facilities reopen as the1starting June lockdown restrictions are loosened amid 19-the COVID coronavirus )pandemic. (Getty

Russian citizens had imagined that in the event of a disaster, a powerful and generous Putin would take full control, overcome the crisis, and help the people. That vision has turned out to be far removed from reality.

ident. For a while, he had reason to believe in his luck. But the day Russians should have been at the polling stations voting to extend his power, they were instead locked in their homes, watching Putin’s unconvincing fight against the second-largest outbreak in the world. Now, the Russian president is trying to return to that more optimistic past and bring the people out to vote for his plans at the end of June—but he does so from a position he has weakened.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

Society

Emerging from the Great Lockdown

How Countries Around the World are Easing Restrictions Imposed to Contain the Spread of COVID- 19

by Sarene Al-Natour Zein

It seems like Covid19- has invaded our lives and changed them forever. 2020 has definitely been a tough and tragic year so far, and the months ahead are yet filled with uncertainty. COVID19- has hit Europe and North America the hardest millions of people were infected and thousands of people lost loved ones to this deadly virus while hospitals and staff were overwhelmed by the huge demand to assist patients who struggled with their agonising symptoms. It’s

A couple has a lunch under plexiglass protection designed by Christophe Gernigon at the H.A.N.D restaurant, on May 2020 ,27 in Paris, as France eases lockdown measures taken to curb the spread of the COVID19- pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus. (Getty)

undeniable that the medical field brawled to cope with this grave situation by providing the necessary personal protective equipment to keep first responders, doctors, nurses, ICU nurses, and other vital workers safe, leading to PPE shortages in many countries such as the USA, Spain, and Italy. This has vividly shown how the world was definitely not prepared for a devastating pandemic on such scale.

As the number of infected individuals began to decline in many countries, governments began easing lockdowns to save the economy and guide people into resuming their daily routine in the safest possible manner. Few questions linger: How harsh was lockdown in some countries? How are some nations emerging out of lockdown?

Lockdown varied from one place to another depending on each country’s strategical response to Covid19-. In Quebec, Canada, having more than 44,000 confirmed cases so far, lockdown measures were not strict although some people believe they should have been. There was no curfew, and people were able to go out and practice sports while maintaining a -2metre distance. All restaurants were closed, but deliveries were available, and Uber Eat and similar applications offered their services for free to encourage people to stay at home.

Also, people were told to work from home if possible. Ibrahim who is a construction worker spoke to Majalla explaining that all construction sites were closed until May 11. Before he resumed work, he stayed at home and was able to adjust to the situation quite well by spending some of his time gaming with his friends. He avoided meeting his sister who doesn’t live in the same household until she was confined indoors for 15 consecutive days.

The Canadian government offered around 2000$ per month for people who lost their jobs due to the pandemic, but it was criticized by some people who believed that officials should have provided more adequate assistance to Quebec’s vulnerable seniors during the lockdown.

The UAE has been bravely battling the virus offering a large amount of testing among citizens, bringing back stranded nationals abroad, and helping neighbouring countries tackle this deadly virus by providing the necessary protective equipment to those in need.

Just like in Canada, Switzerland also enforced a lockdown which began on March 13 until May 11. During this period, people were allowed to go out, but businesses, shopping centres, and restaurants were closed. Starting May 11, life gradually shifted to a “new” norm, and restaurants filled up with customers again with tables being distanced according to suggested regulations, but there were no specific restrictions applied on individuals seated on the same table. Shops are required to provide hand sanitizers at the entrance and are restricted to allow 1 customer per 10m2, meaning there is a limited number of customers allowed depending on the shop’s size. Omar who has been living in Lugano, Switzerland for many years and works in the jewellery business told Majalla that his shop can accommodate 1 individual at a time following the recommended regulations while shopping centres that obviously cover more space installed screens at the entrance displaying their capacity. These screens serve as stop signs to customers: when the screen displays a red signal, an individual should wait at the door. Once the screen turns green, a customer may enter.

Denmark is another European country that implemented a moderate lockdown. The public sector, schools, nurseries, and restaurants were closed while supermarkets, small shops, and doctors’ clinics remained open. Dentists only

Society

opened their clinics for emergencies, and people who can work from home were asked to do so. However, lockdown measures were loosened in May, and shopping centres reopened with recommended guidelines regarding social distancing. Floors were marked with arrows segregating people depending on the direction they’re heading towards to avoid cramming. This week, restaurants resumed their businesses as usual, and it is possible for funfairs to reopen next week.

In the U.K, England generally and London specifically were hit hardest by this deadly virus, claiming the lives of thousands of people. But now, with an easing of lockdown, people are taking advantage of the brilliantly sunny weather and spending their time in open areas such as parks. Shops are also gradually reopening, and schools have cautiously welcomed reception, year 1, and year 6 students by limiting the number of pupils per class to maintain social distancing. The school administration is leaving the decision up to parents to send their children back to school.

Germany is said to be one of the best responders to this pandemic providing rapid and mass testing of individuals to control the spread of the virus. The country has emerged from lockdown while maintaining social distancing. For example, two individuals are allowed in

It looks like our lives have already been altered for what seems like forever, and it is suspected to remain as such for many months or perhaps years ahead.

one vehicle, and people wear mandatory masks and are asked to use sanitizers frequently in supermarkets. Thomas who works at a tissue paper production company said that workers are not forced to wear face masks, and life seems to be going back to normal. He added that at the beginning of the crisis, it was stressful to see people hoarding cleaning products, tissue papers and other items, but it took them a few days to calm down and abandon this so-called “trend”.

Moving towards the Middle East, Lebanon, with 961 reported cases of Corona Virus so far, initially began with a somewhat strict lockdown on March 15th. Universities and schools were closed, official exams were cancelled, and classes were continued online. Malls, shops, churches, mosques, and other places of worship were all closed while pharmacies, supermarkets, and bakeries remained open, and people were only allowed to go out for necessities. Moreover, mass gatherings were banned and a strict curfew was implemented from 7pm till 5am. As the cases of Covid19- shrunk near the beginning of April, the lockdown was slightly eased by pushing the curfew to 8pm and allowing Friday prayer and Sunday Mass in mosques and churches respectively. Also, officials permitted cars with license plates ending with odd digits on the streets on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays while the ones ending with even numbers were out on the three other days, keeping Sunday with no cars at all.

On the May 4, Lebanese officials announced that very few or potentially no new cases of Coronavirus patients were recorded for the past 4 days which led to further easing of lockdown. Some flights carrying stranded Lebanese citizens were evacuated from other virus-struck countries and brought into Lebanon, most shops reopened, and the curfew was pushed further an hour. However, these measures have worryingly escalated matters once again causing confusion and concern among Lebanese

Social distancing sign in a mall in Dubai. (Majalla)

officials, the Emergency Committee, and citizens due to the sharp rise of new Covid19- infections in different parts of the country. As a result, officials implemented a harshly abrupt lockdown on May 14th for four days to investigate the origins of those new cases. The issue that is questionable is the fact that the government decided to ease the lockdown after those 4 days opening shops, businesses, and beaches- banning swimming in the seadespite the gradual rise of newly infected cases. The streets that seemed almost haunted for many days are now bustling with people. Is the government solely depending on the awareness and alertness of the Lebanese citizens?

The UAE, with more than 25,000 reported cases of Covid19- and over 200 reported deaths, has been bravely battling the virus offering a large amount of testing among citizens, bringing back stranded nationals abroad, and helping neighbouring countries tackle this deadly virus by providing the necessary protective equipment to those in need. The easing the lockdown was done very cautiously to restrict any further spread without risking economic setbacks at the same time. Shopping centres are in business offering a maximum number of clients per shop to maintain social distancing. People should wear face masks in supermarkets and other places, and a curfew from 8pm till 6am has been implemented.

Whether some countries enforced rather strict or moderate lockdown, the aim was always to ensure the safety of citizens with the least possible damages. However, it looks like our lives have already been altered for what seems like forever, and it is suspected to remain as such for many months or perhaps years ahead. For the time being, the adequate thing to do is large-scale testing of people, and our only salvation is a viable vaccine or a life-saving cure.